2020-21 NBA Finals

Bucks in 6

Giannis was a monster, but more of a slow moving endurance monster tonight. Bucks got out to a quick lead then went ice cold in the 2nd and the Suns were up at halftime. The Suns weren't even playing particularly well in the 2nd, the Bucks just sucked at attacking the basket for many, many possessions. (They reminded me of Game Four of Suns at Clippers: both teams went through a long stretch of where they just could not score, neither team could finish at all, it was weird, it was like the back alley fight scene from They Live) In the 3rd the Bucks grabbed the lead back but couldn't hold it and it was tied going into the 4th. Suns tied it at 82, Bucks outscored them 23-16 from then on. The Bucks attack was just more reliable, the Suns struggled to get good shots, Giannis was 17-19 from the line (*), the Suns had no answer for any of it. 

Giannis (50pts, 16-25FG, 17-19 FTs, 14 boards, but with 2:6 a:t, uncharacteristic stat line in this Final for Giannis) was awesome again. Though even he was harried, he didn't exactly glide to his 50 tonight, he grinded through it better than anyone else could keep up with. Holiday was back to be good on D/bad on attack (**), Middleton was fine but not really reliable as a scorer, Lopez was good, Portis had moments (good and bad), Connaughton was making plays but just a wild card, Tucker did Tucker stuff. Not the most dialed-in performance but Giannis is Giannis and the world of low hanging fruit looks different to that guy. 

The Suns just ran out of gas. Paul was brilliant for two games (1,2), okay for two (3,6) and was pretty bad in two (4, 5); if he'd been brilliant for 5 games, I think the Suns could've won, but he just does not have that in him. (***). Booker was great for the most part but also had a coupla clunker games (3,6), as well; I think Booker is a big time scorer and he is their carrier for the next few years, they need another one but they've got one. I was blown away by Ayton, I think he was transformed by CP (so I'm sure Ayton is rooting for CP to return), but I was impressed enough to think he's ready to step forward (with/without CP). I was impressed with Mykal Bridges and Cam Johnson throughout the post-season, those guys make a killer tandem, they're not Tatum and Brown, but they are fine 2-way cornerstone rotation guys. Cam Payne had some nice moments (meh, ups and downs), announced himself as potential 3rd PG for a playoff team (that's not bad actually). Jae Crowder still has miles in him, he still plays pretty good defense and he's even occasionally good for a big game knocking down 3's, too. Dario Saric is probably gonna be out all next year, right? I wasn't much of a fan of Frank Kaminsky, so determined to not make mistakes that he looked like he had his eyes closed most of the time, though he did give them pretty good minutes in a choppy Game Six. 

The Bucks were the better team, Giannis the bigger better star, Bucks in 6 is the correct outcome. I originally said the Suns in 7, I thought this was a series where the home team takes every game. But after Game Four, the way the Bucks just casually snatched the game away from Paul/Booker at the end, suggested to me that CP was done and the Bucks now completely understood that they were the better team at both ends. The way the Bucks just suffocated the Suns in Game Five was the R-rated scene in this otherwise family friendly summer entertainment. Game Six was the opposite: in Game Five the Suns were good at everything and didn't come close to victory, whereas in Game Six they kinda sucked at everything but had chances to win in the 4th. The Sun had a great season, made a memorable run and were a fun team to watch while it lasted. But Game Five was the night Jrue Holiday showed up and wrecked shop, Game Six where Giannis just outlasted the field (dominated by default).

All right, so draft next week, then Summer League in August, get these Olympics (****) outta the way and then....right?  The sports schedule is back to normal, no?  NBA and NHL are back to normal pre-season, the World Series and MLS Championship gets off like clockwork, football is always just football, and then college basketball is back on track and the world of sports is back to reality....right? 

(*) I know he missed his last FT, I believe his first one, too. If I'm not mistaken, he hit 17 straight throughout the meat of the game. Pretty good for a guy that sucks at FT's. Hey, man, Tim Duncan was a surprisingly bad FT% guy that became much more reliable in the playoffs, extra points, man, every extra point matters in the playoffs. 

(**) In all six games Holiday was great on defense, he was A+ on D, he was fucking great, he was like Meryl Streep on defense. Offensively he was great in Game Five (man of the match, IMHO), but otherwise he was pretty terrible on offense. He would attack the basket, get there, then put up a lame shot, it's like he was doing 95% of the work but giving up on that last 5% and just getting horrible shots. In Game Five, he knocked down jumpers, then was able to confidently mix up his attack, but that was the only game where that worked. He knocked down 3's okay but his midrange stuff was not good and actually kinda awful. But defensively he was amazing and he had to be out there 45 minutes a night. 

(***) Okay, I'm gonna do this. I really do admire Chris Paul but I'm here to bury him. This was the best possible chance of him winning a championship and it didn't happen. No Ad, no Jamal Murray, no Kawhi, don't have to play the Jazz or the Nets, up 2-0 in the Final, dude, I'm not saying it was on a platter, but hard to imagine a better platter in CP's future. I don't mean to denigrate this run, this is way better than I ever thought Chris Paul could do--he proved me wrong but getting as far as he did. But he's also shown that even under cosmically granted circumstances, it just isn't gonna happen. If the Suns didn't win it this year with CP, I don't see that running it back makes them better next year. 

(****) Never much cared for the Olympics. As I get older I wish they'd just go away. 

2020-21 NBA Finals (after 5 games)

Game Two: Bucks 108-118 Suns

Giannis was amazing (15-22/42 pts, 12 boards), the rest of the Bucks were awful (Middleton + Holiday go 12-37 for 28 pts, yeech). Holiday was getting to the basket but not finishing, Middleton never got going at all, Lopez was all out of whack, Teague and Portis gave mostly empty minutes, Tucker did Tucker stuff. All Giannis and nothing but Giannis and that actually kept them in this game (Jrue has been great on defense all the way through, but his offense has been spotty to say the least). 

CP was amazing, Ayton was amazing, Booker was good, Crowder pitched in, Bridges was money (8-15/27pts, dang!), I kinda love Cam Johnson he's been great at all times, the Suns had a great flow to them, the team defense was workable and the rebounding was good. At home the Suns can roll points quickly and keep a lead and though it was never a blowout, the Suns controlled the game pretty well from beginning to end. 

Game Three: Suns 100-120 Bucks

Giannis goes off again (41pts, 13 boards; 6:1 ast:to, just a fucking brilliant game and he dominated Lebron-like all the way through. Giannis has gone up a level, we wondered if he could, the answer is 'yes'. We're watching it, he's blossoming, I hope he wins, frankly I'd rather see Giannis as an eternal all time badass rather than affirm that Chris Paul was everyone's secret favorite player. 

The rest of the Bucks are better, they have a killer run before halftime, Suns almost make close again in the 3rd (Bucks 74-70, 5 minutes to go in the 3rd; Bucks 46-30 from then on), Bucks cruise through the 4th to bring the series back to 2-1. 

CP was not great. Booker was literally on the bench for most of the 2nd half, never understood why...? Ayton got in foul trouble early and they found themselves stuck with more Frank Kaminsky than is good for winning basketball, Bridges struggled, Cam Payne looked out of it, Cam Johnson was good but not enough. The Suns just never got any rhythm, had a little push in the 3rd but they couldn't stay hot enough to get back into it. 

Middleton got legit hot for stretches, Jrue's defense was still great though his offense was not so much, Lopez makes sense again, Tucker does Tucker stuff, Connaughton cemented his place in the rotation, Teague gave reliable minutes. All around great performance by the Bucks, good teamwork, good individual play, the game was over fairly quick. The home team has won every game and the Bucks look firmly in control. 

Game Four: Suns 103-109 Bucks

The Suns held a nice lead through most of the game but all along it felt like it was just one well-timed Bucks run to flip the game and, yeah, Bucks grab the lead back at 97-95 with 3:08 left in the game. Bucks outscored them 12-8 from there. Easy as you please, I was waiting for the Shymalan twist at the end and there it was like clockwork.  

Giannis was mellow but still a positive performance, Middleton went off, Jrue's defense is still great and his offense not so much, Connaughton is now clearly the guy, Portis looks good enough to get minutes, Teague again is reliable (if not a true plus player), Tucker does Tucker stuff. My dumb hot take: Brook Lopez has been great and the criticism of him is reading it all wrong; the problem with Lopez coming high to guard CP isn't that he can't guard CP, he's been fine, Lopez gets really wide. he can't stop CP's jumper but he pushes him away from the basket just fine; it's that pulling Lopez on to CP leaves Ayton being marked by Holiday or Teague or Tucker and that's useless, CP's gonna beat that every time. The criticism is misplacing the inefficiency with Lopez on CP rather than Lopez not on Ayton, Lopez is the Bucks best choice against Ayton, not against Paul. Seems to me in Three and Four they seemed to have solved that (though in the 1st half of Five it seems like Lopez is trying to lure Paul toward the basket to cut off Ayton's path; feels like CP is gonna drain a million 15 footers tonight)

CP was not good (felt like he worked hard for his 10points, 7,asts, 5 turnover), did not have his usual command of the game, made a coupla bad turnovers down the stretch, a most uncharacteristic CP game. Booker was phenomenal (42pts on 17-28), clearly he was the work horse tonight, despite foul trouble, despite a phantom no-call that kept him from fouling out, then another, then another, the refs refused to let Booker leave! Ayton was a monster on the boards and effective at rim defense, but didn't get into the offensive flow (the difference betw CP and Cam Payne), Crowder and Johnson had moments but not enough. Payne was 50/50, Bridges wasn't effective tonight. 

Asst:to. Bucks 22/5; Suns 18/17; a Chris Paul squad with 17 turnovers?

I felt coming into this series that the home team would win every game, its just a time honored NBA truism that big stars get the calls at home and role players play better at home, this felt like one of those matchups, felt like the refs would play along (and I think they have). 

But after the Bucks finish here in Game Four, I think the winner of Game Five can win Game Six. The Bucks can win in Phoenix and then finish it back home in Game Six or they can shoot their wad in Phoenix while the Suns savvy vet the championship right out from under them back in Milwaukee. But I think the Bucks are better situated to make that happen. I think the Bucks are the better team.

Game Five: Bucks 123-119 Suns 

The Suns surged right away to a 32-16 lead early in the 2nd; Bucks countered with a 26-10 run to tie the game at 42. It was the Bucks' game pretty much from then on. Bucks were kinda pounding the Suns for most of the 2nd half, Suns cut it close late in the 4th, but couldn't grab the lead, even though the Bucks were missing FT's late. Holiday was great, Middleton was great, Giannis was just kinda B+ Giannis tonight but that was plenty. This is the kind of balanced attack that Marty Schottenheimer preached of. 

CP was not getting the calls in the 1st half, felt like he was playing for contact and the refs weren't buying it (surprised to see CP still not getting the calls in the 4th). Booker was good (40pts on 17-33, still the work horse but he wasn't quite as reliable as last time) but he just couldn't get past the Bucks' big 3. Crowder was money (he's the third Morris twin: if he's hot in 1st he's gonna be good tonight; if he's cold in the 1st, he better be getting some rebounds), Johnson, Bridges, Ayton were fine, Cam Payne was kinda 50/50 (some nice, some not so nice), no one played badly and no one reflects ill in the box score. When a good team plays well and still loses handily, that's a bad sign. 

Holiday announced early that he would be making his shots tonight and he did (27pts on 12-20 and 13 assts and he brought the defense the whole night); Holiday was a monster tonight, I thought he was the man of the match. Middleton was great, too, (29pts on 12-23), knocked down tough shots, bodied hard with Booker when need be, an all round confident reliable filler upper performance. Giannis was cool (a very easygoing 32pts/9boards/6:0 asst:to; casually brilliant tonight), he's taken the next step: he can exert force without dominating the possession, distorting the defensive rotations or interrupting anyone else's rhythm. He is effortlessly useful and never detracts from anyone (that's his super power: Giannis is still Giannis no matter who his teammates are, the better they are the further he'll carry them).  

Asst:to. Bucks 23:8; Suns 26:11. Suns did not get blown out on this tonight, in fact I recall so many bad Bucks giveaways in this game that I'm kinda shocked they only had 8 turnovers. Stocks: Bucks had 8, Suns had 14. Team rebounds: Bucks 37, Suns 35. Suns shot 13-19 from 3pt, 10-11 from FT line. The Suns didn't do anything badly in this game, the stats are pretty even, but they were never in this game in the 2nd half (even as they chipped away at the lead, I never thought they were gonna pull off the comeback the way the Bucks did in Game Four). 

The Suns, man, I think they've peaked. You look at this box score and nobody had a bad game, everyone contributed and it wasn't enough. I think CP had two good games in him, perhaps one more but that's not enough now. I think Booker has three good games in him, but going for 40 tonight didn't get the W. Ayton pitched in a very comfortable 20/10 but it didn't get them a single lead in the 4th quarter. Johnson and Bridges and Crowder were fine, even Cam Payne has a nice looking box score. The Suns playing well did not win the game at home (did not get the calls at home), that's not good.  

The Bucks have announced themselves as the better team. They did that at the beginning of Game Three, the end of Game Four, and in Game Five it was snatching the lead before halftime when it felt like it might be a Suns blowout. 

I initially had Suns in 7, gotta flip that to Bucks in 6. I think this is it.

2020-21 NBA Semifinals

Game Six: Sixers 104-99 Hawks

Game Seven: Hawks 103-96 Sixers

After the Hawks came roaring back from monster deficits in the previous two games, they were pretty lowkey in Game Six and the Sixers kinda cruised to a series-evening W. And even though Trae Young was not exactly at his best, Kevin Huerter shined out in a big way to move the Hawks to the Conference Finals (and send the Sixers to a hellish off-season of bickering). I love underdogs and I have a brand new respect for Trae Young, but let's be honest: the Sixers should've won this series in five games without really breaking a sweat. The defense is there but, man, the fact that the ball dominant Ben Simmons absolutely refuses to score points is a killer in playoffs. Embiid battled his ass off, Seth Curry provided way more offense than should've been needed and even the much maligned Tobias Harris averaged 19ppg on just under 50% from the floor. Felt like Coach Rivers had this team right where he wanted them but Simmons' godawful FT% (15-45--yeech!) basically sank them in every game. The talk of trading Simmons began immediately (when we could just as easily be heralding his first final four appearance) and you just know that talk is gonna linger all summer long. Great effort from the Hawks, the mosquito took down the elephant. 

Game Six: Jazz 119-131 Clippers

Wow, what a lame ending for the Jazz. To blow a 25 point lead in a must-win game after letting Game Four slip away is...well, precisely what I thought wouldn't happen to the Jazz. I pegged the Jazz as the best team for their balanced and deep roster and their coaching, which has been superb the last few years. But watching Rudy Gobert (DPOY) get torched in the 4th quarter was entirely the coach's fault (not Rudy's, he was busting his ass but the way the Clips were raining 3's had nothing to do with his skills). They couldn't counter the small lineup and even though the coach wanted to stick with what has worked all year, it wasn't working that night and Coach Snyder fiddled rather than getting to work. A disappointing conclusion to what was a really great season for the Jazz. The Clippers overcame Kawhi's absence behind the resurgence of Paul George, an all-time great bench effort and Coach Lue's confident handling. 

Game Seven: Bucks 115-111 (OT) Nets

I never thought the Nets were gonna lose. Down for most of the 4th quarter, it just felt to me like they would find a way, they had too many playmakers, too many big timers to let this funky-ass Bucks team steal the W. But, uh, nope....didn't happen. Durant hit the big shot at the buzzer but his foot was on the line, so it merely prolonged the contest that everyone was too beat to play (6-2 in OT). Harden was negligible, Kyrie didn't play at all, Joe Harris still didn't shine out, Blake Griffin played hard but mostly on defense, Bruce Brown was nice but not enough, so Kevin Durant had to do it all and his 48 points just couldn't finish the job. Well, I did pick the Bucks over the Nets and, well, I thought it would be because the Nets would flame out, but somehow I still didn't actually believe it until I watched it happen. Great W for the Bucks, wonder what happens to the Nets now (how much self-pity can a collection of hall of famers exude?). 

Game One: Clippers 114-120 Suns

No Kawhi, no Chris Paul, but still an entertaining opening match. Devin Booker is--and I say this with respect and admiration--the stupidest motherfucker in the NBA right now (though Trae Young is a pretty close 2nd) by which I mean he thinks about nothing but scoring, he is an unconscious, unthinking, unfeeling scoring machine and his 40 points (and 1st career triple double) is the proof. 

Pairing Booker with CP, the smartest motherfucker to ever play the game, feels like a deadly combo. So unless Kawhi comes back at maximum power, I gotta take the Suns duo over the Clipper duo. And considering the best part of the Clippers so far was the unbelievable bench effort in the last coupla games against the Jazz, suggests that max power Kawhi may be incompatible with the best part of the Clippers. So...uh....how do they win games? Paul George will getting a face full of Jae Crowder and Dario Saric and as good as Reggie Jax and Terence Mann have been, I don't see how they outscore Booker. And the Clippers don't have anyone down low to counter Deandre Ayton. I think the Clippers will win enough to keep the series interesting, but I'll take the Suns in 7.

Hawks - Bucks

I kinda love this Hawks team. Even without Deandre Hunter (is Cam Reddish gonna play?), they move the ball so well, play good team defense and everyone knows their role. When its time for Huerter to bail them out, it happens. But until then it's Trae's team and everybody knows it. I love the attack but I'm still skeptical of their defense. Embiid bogs down on his own and Simmons hates to score, so I think the Sixers played into the Hawks' shortcomings where I don't think the Bucks will. Also, (weird way of sayin' it but) I don't think the Bucks are smart enough to outsmart themselves the way the Sixers did. While I think the Sixers are potentially a more dynamic team, I think the Bucks are more reliable at being themselves. I think Middleton, Holiday and Lopez will get their shots (and I feel like they'll finish better than they did against the Nets), I think Giannis attacks the lane and gets fouls and I think we could see a lot more of the Hawks bench then we did in the last series. On the other hand, an insanely hot night from Trae (always a possibility!) is really the only thing that the Bucks can't handle. I thought the Sixer D was enough to handle the Hawks--and perhaps it was considering that it was the Sixer offense that couldn't keep pace--and I think the Bucks D will be, too. I like the Bucks in 6.

2020-21 NBA Playoffs (Quarterfinals after 5 games)

Bucks 2-3 Nets

As a Redditor reminded the world, every team has endured heartbreaking injuries in this year's playoffs....except for the Bucks. So...wtf, guys? Kyrie is out, Harden is playing on one leg (and not playing particularly well), and, even though he's healthy, Joe Harris has been kinda useless so far. So why haven't the Bucks taken control of this series? Giannis just doesn't have the killer instinct (*), Middleton is still not shooting well enough to be a strong second banana, Holiday has been nice but hasn't added much, PJ Tucker has had moments but also seems like a weakness, and Coach Bud has not stepped up his game (though he looks to be well in touch with his inner Nick Nolte). The Bucks had Game Five in hand and they let it slip away in the wake of KD's brilliance (damn, that dude went off I didn't even think he was capable of taking over a game the way he did last night) and Jeff Green returning from injury and balling out. If this Bucks team can't beat this depleted Nets team, then it ain't gonna happen. Blow it up, Milwaukee, the obvious next step is pure panic.

Sixers 2-3 Hawks

Oooohhh, Sixers. Two games in a row where they were thumping their way to the Eastern Conference Finals and then gave it up in the 4th quarter. Game Five, I'm sitting there watching the 18 point lead shrink and shrink and they're up by 2, Trae Young comes down, fakes a shot, gets fouled, drills three straight FT's and the game was over. I hate to be that guy....but do you know who can't do any of that? Yeah, Ben Simmons can't do any of that. The Sixer defense has been solid but in Game Five they needed to continue the scoring and they couldn't do it. Embiid wears out in the second half, Tobias Harris got marked out of the game (John Collins, DPOY guy now?), Seth Curry carried the scoring as long as he could and....well....nothing else. Man, they're gonna lose to the fuckin' Atlanta Hawks (**). The Hawks have impressed me so much by just hanging around. This series should be over, the Sixers should have won Games Four and Five, but the Hawks have found the Sixers weakness: they have no staying power, they can't go 48 minutes in a row and there's no reservoir of offense, they can't dig down and get points. The Hawks, on the other hand, have offense to burn and just the right mix of vets (who don't give a fuck) and youngsters (who don't know any better) and they look like a nice little squad, man. The Sixers should be nervous, they could still win the next two games and move on, but I wouldn't bet on it. The Hawks have taken control of this series and there's just no reason why that should've happened. 

Jazz 2-3 Clippers

The Jazz missed their chance in Game Five. With Kawhi out, the Jazz at home should've throttled the Clippers and taken command of this series. But they didn't bring their best effort, gimped in the 4th quarter, couldn't stop Reggie Jackson and, oh yeah, Paul George was fuckin' amazing. I really didn't think PG had that in him without Kawhi. I've long thought PG is built to be a second banana and relying too much on him is only going to be disappointing and perhaps that's what the Jazz thought, too. But he showed up in this game in a big way and he took the series away from the Jazz, who have yet to win in a game in Staples (where the Mavs won 3 out of 4). It's not over, I still believe in the Jazz but winning two in a row ain't gonna be easy. 

Suns 4-0 Nuggets

I thought the two teams would have similar offensive outputs but the Nuggets just couldn't hang without Jamal Murray. When Murray is the first option (Jokic being the second), it allows Michael Porter to be the third option and Aaron Gordon to be a rover; but without Murray, Porter is not ready to be a #1 option in a playoff series and Gordon is nice but not really built to be more than the 4th best guy on a squad. The loss of Murray creates a cascade of offensive inefficiency and as great as Jokic is, he can't make up for all that by himself. The Suns, on the other hand, are led by Devin Booker, who I'm completely convinced now is the most Kobe-like player in the game today: when Booker gets the ball in his hands, all he contemplates is how to get the ball in the basket; that's the "Kobe": it's not about flash, its not about winning, its not about last time or next time, its not about impressing people or showing anyone up, it is about putting the ball in the basket right here, right now. And the Nuggets don't have anything that can hang with that, so the Suns rolled them soundly. Chris Paul has been great, I've been blown away by Deandre Ayton--really much better at both ends than I ever gave him credit for--and the rest of the cast has been just fine so far. This isn't about Suns dominance, though, this is about the Nuggets being short-handed. The Suns would have home court against the Clippers.

 

(*) Dude, I'm not complaining about your slow FT technique but it isn't working. So try picking up the pace instead of fetishizing your bad habits.

(**) You know the Hawks were the one team that actually played really well against Brooklyn in the regular season. Just throwin' that out there...

2020-21 NBA Playoffs (Quarterfinals ongoing)

1st round (Game Seven) Mavs 111-126 Clippers

Ah, man Kawhi was so great and the whole Clipper supporting cast really came to play, this was easily the most complete team game they played in the entire series. The game was close for about 30 mins and right around the time I was noticing just how good all the Clippers had been playing, that was when Luke Kennard got hot, eventually handed it over to Reggie Jackson, and the Mavs couldn't keep up and it was over. Kawhi was perfect, man, in the last two games, just ice cold fucking perfect. He made every hustle play and every smart play and stroked jumpers and controlled the game CP-style. He was awesome, no mistakes, just pure killer. PG was good, too, a reminder that when he brings it, he's a great second banana. Marcus Morris for better and worse is a dude that plays with total confidence and he was hitting in the 1st half, a big contributor. Terence Mann ran around making plays, he was great in the last two games, too. Reggie Jax was spotty in the 1st half, but had some nice buckets in the 4th quarter and Kennard filled it up off the bench (the way he was supposed to). 

Luka was amazing but Kawhi was also amazing and his posse had more to offer, so the 4th quarter was unexpectedly cakewalk-ish. I kinda liked what the Mavs were doing with Boban (though I think I would've liked it better with someone other than Boban) and Boban had a nice offensive game (not so much at the other end). Dorian Finney-Smith played hard working defense but no one else made any kind of difference. Porzingis went 6-12, perfect from FT, 11 boards, 2 steals, no turnovers and...I forgot he was out there most of the time (*). Luka is about to sign his big extension this summer, I hope they can find a way to upgrade the roster. (**)

2nd rd (2 games) Bucks 0-2 Nets

Yipes, my pick of Bucks in 6 does not look...uh....possible at this point. I hate to be that guy: it's Middleton, dude, he went badly cold in the first two games and just killed any hope of offensive momentum. If he gets back on track, I think the Bucks can still get back into this (but it would take a major collapse for the Nets to lose in 6 now). If Giannis can rely on scoring from the wings, then his attack can shred the Nets; Claxton is gonna be rough but when he's right, Giannis is capable of fouling out half that roster. If the Nets keep shooting this good (Harden hasn't even played yet (***)), then they should probably take a game in Milwaukee and wrap this in 5. But I think the Bucks can gut out two wins and keep this series going. 

2nd rd (Game One) Hawks 128-124 Sixers

The Hawks so thoroughly dominated the Sixers in the first half that looking back I wonder if the Sixers weren't intentionally letting the Hawks take their best shot. Philly's defense was brutal and that is precisely what I expected them to be best at. Could be that they were sacrificing a game to get the real dirt on how the Hawks look. Well, in the 1st half they looked gooood. Everybody was draining shots, Trae was just about untouchable and the Sixers kinda sucked at everything. The Sixers went on a furious run--that 4-point differential doesn't suggest what a one-sided game this was until about the last five minutes or so--and made it look close but this game wasn't close. They dropped Game One at home but I still think the Sixers are the better team and while I don't mean to suggest the Sixers are immortal or that the Hawks won't have another Klay-and-Steph kinda half, but the Sixers should figure out how to outscore the Hawks more often than not. I think I said Sixers in 6 (if Embiid is healthy) and I think I'll stick with that (as long as Embiid stays healthy). 

2nd rd (Game One) Nuggets 105-122 Suns

Somewhere in the 3rd quarter of this game, it kinda struck me that the two offenses were both potent and reliable enough that I expected each game of this series to be relatively tight all the way through, didn't really think anyone would get more than about 10-12 point lead. Right around the time, the Suns got hot (er, hotter, they were already playing great) and the Nuggets went cold. The Suns were able to get a nice lead and keep stretching throughout the 4th quarter--precisely what I thought would not happen between these two squads. Oh well, perhaps it won't happen again. Jokic v Dame in 2019 was one of my favorite NBA series lately and this still has the potential to be like that. I still think though that the two squads are similar and evenly matched. I initially said Nuggets in 7--but that was because I was thinking they had home court. I think the Suns are a perhaps slightly deeper roster and since they have the home court, I'll change it to Suns in 7. 

2nd rd Clippers-Jazz

In the last two games the Clippers definitely looked like the team they were always supposed to be. If Kawhi is going to be this masterful, then they're going to be in every series; and if PG and co. can pitch in the way the did taking four of the last five from the Mavs, then they can win and keep winning. The Jazz are a team that know what they are, they're not growing up before our eyes or struggling to figure it out, they are who they are. Could be the Clippers are ready to be better than what they've been--which might be better than the Jazz--but even still I think the Jazz are gonna be a tough out. I think the Jazz can get the shots they want and if they're hitting, they can bury the Clippers. I think the difference is Kawhi: specifically, can the Jazz outlast him in a Game Seven? I'm gonna say yes and take the Jazz in 7.

(*) That's the danger of Porzingis: even when he's playing hard and playing well, he still adds virtually zilch to this team. When he was a kid there was so much weird raw potential but I think the reality is he's a unique athlete that's so-so at basketball. I think he's a trade-able asset (a big paycheck star, a freak to look at but will win zero games--isn't that exactly what OKC has their eye on for the next two years?) but the Mavs need to bring back something tangible and I'm not sure anything like that is available, so I thinks its 50-50 whether he's back next year. 

(**) Cuban suggested the other day that he had no intention of firing Rick Carlyle and I think that is the correct thing to do and the correct way to think about it: change for the sake of change just creates an atmosphere of drift. If a great candidate emerges, I can see Cuban reevaluating the coaching spot but until that happens, I think Carlyle is still the right coach for this team.

(***) My gut is Harden was sitting Game One anyway and just wanted to make a show of it. I don't think he ever intended to play, he was just stirring up some drama. Perhaps if they can script their drama, they can keep under control. Discuss: could creating chaos instead of letting create itself turn out to be a brilliant move?

2020-21 NBA Playoffs (Round One after six games)

Sixers 4-1 Wizards. Yup. If Embiid is hurt, I don't see the Sixers beating either the Bucks or Nets; but if Embiid plays, they can hang with anyone. Simmons is so allergic to scoring that its cringeworthy considering what a pleasure he is to watch otherwise. I think Tobias Harris is criminally underappreciated, a guy cursed with the luck of a player-friendly contract and surrounded by fan favorites. Seth Curry is nice but the fact that they have to rely pretty heavily on him is a little scary. Doc Rivers is the right coach for them right now but it's all about Embiid's health, the more games he plays, the deeper they can go. 

Nets 4-1 Celtics. Yup. Looking back on it, I'm really quite surprised they let the Celtics take a game. I guess it doesn't matter: they were gonna be in Boston for Game Four and then back in Brooklyn win or lose, so who needs to win? (The core component of the "Gentleman's Sweep") But, still, the Nets are trying to convince everyone they're untouchable, so getting housed by Tatum is a little disappointing. Oh well, they've got the scoring to hang with anyone.

Bucks 4-0 Heat. The Bucks have come into the playoffs as the overrated front runner the last two years but now they're the overlooked #3 seed and I think that's the spot for them. 

Knicks 1-4 Hawks. Here's something we definitely learned about the Knicks: when Julius Randle and RJ Barrett don't show up, they're not very good. I don't think I needed five games of watching that to know, but at least now I'm sure I know. To say Randle was bad doesn't even capture it: he didn't rise up to the level of "bad", he was way worse. And, dude, Barrett was so bad in this series, I can't even remember his lowlights, he just disappeared. And, hey, I love Taj Gibson as much as the next guy but every time Trae got in the lane, Taj just watched him. Nerlens is the only guy on that roster that has any hope of hanging with Trae Young and Clint Capela at the same time, so what was Taj doing that earned him so many minutes? Immanuel Quickly probably wasn't the answer but wasn't it worth seeing if he could do something? Derrick Rose was the only Knick that showed up and I blame Thibs (yeah, I was a never a Thibs guy and this series didn't change my mind). As for the Hawks, well, they look pretty good but I dunno, man, the Knicks were really horrible, so it's hard to tell. 

Jazz 4-1 Grizzlies. The Jazz tried to get cute by resting Donovan Mitchell in Game One and the Grizz stepped up and broke off a piece. Good for them but that's as good as it was gonna get for the Grizzlies. Nice team, I like the whole team (Ja with some seasoning is gonna be all right) but they weren't ready to go long with the Jazz. This Jazz team is good at everything, well coached and kinda deep. They're the #1 seed for a reason. 

Suns 4-2 Lakers. Look, when Anthony Davis plays, the Lakers can beat anyone, when he doesn't, they can't beat anyone. The Suns are good--they're the #2 seed--and the Lakers have one great player that doesn't play enough and another great player that doesn't play when the other great player doesn't show up and not much else. This series was never over to my mind, the Lakers did well to take Games Two and Three, but when AD went gimpy, that was the end of their season. If he had played in Six and Seven, I would've given the Lakers a puncher's chance but even then I would not have seen them as the clear favorite in either game. The Suns move the ball and they shoot well and when a guy like Jae Crowder gets hot (*), it's kinda over for the other team, because CP won't turn it over, Ayton gets rebounds and possessions become bitterly precious. 

Nuggets 4-2 Blazers. Oh! Thought this was going seven games, but outta nowhere the Nuggets just locked down the Blaze in the 4th quarter and stole Game Six--brilliant team effort. Figured the Blazers were cruising to a win and send the Series back to Denver but they got tight down the stretch right as the Nuggets got hot. Good W for Denver, for the MVP. Still an uphill battle for the Nuggets but I think Suns is a matchup they can hang with. 

Clippers (3-3) Mavs. Going Seven games! The Mavs winning in Game Five came outta nowhere. I thought they were spent, thought Luka was hurt, thought the Clippers had righted their ship, but just like in the first two games, the Mavs just kept pace, held their lead and outlasted the furious comeback. Great W for the Mavs! Another stomach-churning L for the Clippers. Then when I figured the calamity had returned to Clipper-land, Kawhi goes off in the 4th and they steal back Game Six in Dallas (I believe this is the first series ever where the road team won the first six games). Who ya got back in LA? Well, I mean, the Mavs have owned Staples so far, but you gotta feel like the Clippers understand the sword of Damocles that hovers above them...I wanna say Clippers but it's hard, man, it's hard to bet on the Clippers. 

(*) Dude, if Jae Crowder makes a shot in the 3rd quarter of Game Three, then this series would've been over a lot sooner--and before Davis went out.

2020-21 NBA Playoffs (Round One after 4 games)

Sixers 3-1 Wizards 

Setting up nicely for the gentleman's sweep. Not surprised Russ and Beal were able to finally blow up to save some face (with a big 3rd quarter after Embiid decided to take the night off). If Embiid is back, this is over in 5; if he's not, I still don't see how this goes more than 5. The Sixers move the ball too well and defend too well for the short-handed Wizards to hang with (that said, Embiid's sudden gimipness does suddenly make this more interesting than it ought to be). 

Nets 3-1 Celtics

Well, Game Three was a perfect storm: Net's big 3 all shrank and Jaysun Tatum was just about untouchable as he went for 50. Okay, I'm surprised that happened once, doesn't seem possible it could happen again. Nets in 5.

Bucks 4-0 Heat

What a lame performance from the Heat: balled out in Game One, came up short, packed it in. This is still pretty much the same team that made mincemeat of the Bucks on their way to the Finals last year and yet this squad couldn't muster even a gentleman's W. The Heat have a star, a collection of nice youth and handy veterans, a coach that has won Championships and, you know, all that Heat culture....and they couldn't even take a game off the Bucks? Either the Bucks are better than we thought (which is very possible) or this Heat team was just mailing it in all year long (also possible). 

Knicks 1-3 Hawks

Julius Randle was on my MVP ballot and was one of my favorite players to watch this season, but he has disappeared while Trae Young looks like Steph in his prime. Wtf? The Hawks are a deeper team but they're inexperienced, while the Knicks are all veteran mercenaries with a tough guy coach--figured they'd put up a little more fight. There's still time for Randle to re-appear and wreck shop and there's still time for the Knicks to figure out how to slow down Trae...but there ain't much time. Factor in that the Hawks just went cold in the 4th quarter of Game Two and, uh , this series should probably already be over. I'll give the Knicks a W in front of the home crowd, but I'll take the Hawks in 6. 

Jazz 3-1 Grizzlies

Remember when the Grizzlies won Game One (after knocking out the Warriors)? Yeah, that feels like a long time ago. The Grizz got a lot of nice talent--Ja is a player, for sure--but the Jazz do everything well: team defense is tight, they move the ball, they all score, they're deep and savvy all around. I just don't see how the Grizz take another game. Jazz in 5.

Suns 2-2 Lakers

When Anthony Davis doesn't play, the Lakers don't win (also: Lebron doesn't exert full effort). So if Anthony Davis plays two more games, I'd give the Lakers at least a shot at winning; but if he doesn't, I think the Suns win all the games he doesn't play. And as much as the talking head crowd adores them some Chris Paul (*), I think the Suns can win without him--indeed, I think he's occasionally detrimental (when trying to run down the clock in Game Four, he nearly killed all their momentum, when actually trying to score was still working just fine). I think the Suns are a good team and they know how to win better without CP than the Lakers can without AD. I dunno what to pick, if AD plays two of the next three games, I'll say the Lakers; if not, it's the Suns. We'll just have to see. 

Nuggets 2-2 Blazers

Coin flip. Both teams get so hot and so cold that these games have actually been pretty uninteresting when two years ago this was my favorite matchup. Oh well. Nuggets at home in Seven seems the only reasonable call at this point.  

Clippers 2-2 Mavs

Okay, I bit on the hype and figured the Clippers had clipped and this was over. But instead it seems the Mavs have reverted to the mean and their brilliant shooting in the first two games kinda evaporated in the last two games and now we're back to the beginning. The Clippers seem a lot more confident suddenly after looking shellshocked early on; and the Mavs seem a lot more like the one dimensional one-man show they were all season. I think they're even again, which would lead me to take the Clippers in 7. 

(*) I like Chris Paul just fine, but the nerds drool over him in a way I find puzzling. He's never won anything and I don't think its the injuries--he wasn't gonna win anyway! He's a helluva regular season player but in the grand scheme of things, he's more of a never-was than a hall of famer. I said it, I meant it: he was never built to go deep into the playoffs even in his prime. 

2020-21 NBA Playoffs (Round One after two games)

Sixers 2-0 Wizards. Yeah, not a shock. The Wizards do have offensive firepower but it ain't gonna be enough to win more than maybe one game. I like the Wizards to come up big in Game Three but that'll probably be it. I'll stick with Sixers in 5. 

Nets 2-0 Celtics. Yeah, the Celtics are spent. They don't even have a shot at taking a single game--they already played about as well as they can in Game One and got thoroughly smoked, so what else is there for them to do? They should just forfeit these next two games and move on--I don't see any reason to even play these games (except for contractual obligation obviously). I'll stick with Nets in 4. 

Bucks 2-0 Heat. The Heat are not as good as last year, not sure why, they're a nice team but no one on that roster has taken a step forward this season and they're trying to get too many minutes out of Ariza and Iguodala. The Bucks are looking pretty good, they have shored up their deficiencies from last year and have their sights on the Nets already, I'd say. I like the Heat to ball out hard in Game Three, but I like the Bucks to take Game Four in Miami and wrap it up at home. I'll stick with Bucks in 5.

Knicks 1-1 Hawks. Dog fight! Love it!  Game Two was a weird one: Knicks kinda sucked at everything, Julius Randle is not getting good looks, felt like the Hawks were rolling...and the Knicks won anyway. Yeah, that's what kind of series this is going to be: giant momentum swings...for no reason at all. Neither of these teams suck but neither of them are flat out winners, either, so each game--each quarter!--will flop around like this. I'd be kinda shocked if this doesn't go seven games. The longer it takes Randle to get going, the better chance the Hawks have of sneaking this in 6, but Randle won't stay silent forever. I'll stick Knicks in 7. 

Jazz 1-1 Grizzlies. I admired the Grizzlies spunk in Game One and they are clearly not afraid. I like Ja Morant, he can get to wherever he wants to get to...but I'm not yet convinced he knows what to do when he gets there. But with Donovan Mitchell back in the lineup, I think the Jazz control game play and I like them to get to work and finish off the Grizz. I'll say Jazz in 5. 

Suns 1-1 Lakers. Oh yeah, this is gonna be fun. The Lakers obviously have the two best players, but that's all they have and if Anthony Davis disappears like he did in Game One, then the Lakers absolutely do not have enough to beat the Suns. Compare this to the Suns, on the other hand, who get not much out of Chris Paul in Game Two--and still should've won! The Suns can still steal games without their best players, the Lakers cannot. This is going seven games because neither of these teams has enough to easily control the other. So far I'm more impressed with the Suns' moxy (and Deandre Ayton's ability to hang with AD) than I am with anything the Lakers have. I'll stick with Suns in 7.

Nuggets 1-1 Blazers. I like the Nuggets to take a game in Portland to even this series up. If the Nuggets had Jamal Murray, I think they'd be up 2-0 but without him the Blazers have a shot. This is going seven, this is going to be a free-for-all shootout and I'm merely sticking with the home team. I got Nuggets in 7. 

Clippers 0-2 Mavs. Uh oh! This is the nightmare scenario for the Clippers, they're in real trouble and heads are going to roll. Dude, you could see it in Game Two: Kawhi and PG balled out and they still got smoked. Luka controls the game as well as anyone right now and the Clippers have no answer for it. Man, if the Mavs sweep the Clippers...oh....man...that's gonna be bad. Can the Clippers get back in this series? I don't see how. I gotta go Mavs in 4.

2020-21 NBA Playoffs (Predictions for Round One)

East

Sixers - Wizards. If the Wizards play their absolute best game, I don't think they win more than one game. The Sixers are not exactly a juggernaut, but they can defend and score enough to knock around a half-assed squad like the Wizards. Sixers in 5. (1 Game in: yeah, that's still what I think; Beal and Westbrook can get hot and steal a game but I can't see any more than that)

Nets - Celtics. The Celtics were sub-par this year, largely (I think) because of an unreliable PG (Kemba) and a 2nd string that simply couldn't keep pace. The Nets have scoring on top of scoring and the Celtics will be without their most important wing defender (Jaylen Brown). Nets in 4. (1 game in: dude, the Celtics shot the lights out in the 1st half and still lost by double digits...yeah, Celtic perfection might cover the spread but ain't gonna win a single match in this series)

Bucks - Heat. Last year, I liked the Heat and I was right; but this year, the Bucks are coming in underrated and the Heat are coming in overrated. The Heat have been okay this year but Adebayo has not taken a leap, nor has Herro, and while Dragic looks ready to play, not sure about Butler or the rest of the bench. The Bucks, on the other hand, look stronger on both ends of the court and are flying under the radar (though Giannis just as easily could've won another MVP this season). Won't be a walkover, but I like the Bucks to be the better team throughout. Bucks in 6. (2 games in: yeah, not surprised the Heat came in hard the first night (but came up short) and limped out in game 2 (and got drilled; I like the Bucks Game Four and finish the series back in Milwaukee))

Knicks - Hawks. This'll be the fun one! Two teams that haven't made much noise in a while, both on the rise, neither is really ready to win but both are gonna be tough outs--almost a shame they're facing each other (like when two spunky underdogs accidentally get paired together in March Madness). Should be a rock fight from start to finish, I like Randle to rise above and seal Game Seven. Knicks in 7. (1 game in: nice little upset for the Hawks in Game One, but I still see it going seven, so not a shocker)

West

Jazz - Grizzlies. I would've given the Warriors a puncher's chance to really fluster the Jazz, but I don't see the Grizz getting much done. The Grizzlies have a nice toughness and depth but they're real green, man, none of those guys have ever done anything. Beating the Warriors was a nice biscuit for them, but I don't see them giving Utah much to worry about this year. Jazz in 5. (1 game in: The Grizz keep it going! I like the effort, they caught the Jazz flat footed and showed off some real firepower. The Grizzlies are already better than I gave them credit for, I can see them winning another game, but in the end the Jazz are still the better team and should shine out; I'll change it to Jazz in 6)

Suns - Lakers. Yeah, I know Lebron is awesome and Anthony Davis at his best is maybe the most un-guardable player in the league and they're the defending champs and, you know, Lakers...yeah, yeah, I get all that. But neither Lebron, nor AD is at full strength, the legendary Lakers home court advantage can't be nearly as great as usual and the rest of the supporting cast is really thin this time around. I don't see what Andre Drummond is supposed to do for them (*), I don't see Kuzma. Mntrezl, or KCP being a difference maker, and as much as I love Caruso (love that guy!), he's not enough of a factor to make up for a soft night from either of the big stars. The Lakers have no margin for error and do you really wanna face Chris Paul in that circumstance? I like Devin Booker to go off, the Suns have the better supporting cast, the surer PG and the home court advantage and honestly I'm not sure the Lakers have 4 really good games in them (yeah, it takes 16 to win a championship...I don't even see 4). I'll take the Suns in 7 (feels like a sucker bet). (1 game in: a little surprised at how thoroughly Ayton dismantled AD but not at all surprised that the Lakers couldn't get going. Wouldn't be surprised to see a repeat in Game Two; I'm sticking with the Suns in 7)

Nuggets - Blazers. The Nuggets without Jamal Murray should still be good enough to get past the Blazers. Lillard, McCollum and Melo/Simons/Powell can definitely go off and finish games, but I think the Nuggets rotation headlined by MVP Jokic will be enough to get by the Blazers. I wanna say Nuggets in 6, but I like the home court to hold, so I'll say Nuggets in 7. (2 games in: a little surprised the Blazers took the first game simply because I thought the home team would dominate--and they may have just stolen the series right there; but I had it going 7 and they're both good teams that can get hot at any moment, so I'll stick with Nuggets in 7 (although clearly I got more doubt than I did before))

Clippers - Mavs. Fun series! Last year, the Mavs just weren't ready for the Clippers and frankly that dynamic should not have changed. But Luka just continues to put his stamp on the league and the Clippers are quite capable of Clipping, so this series is definitely worth keeping an eye on. Wouldn't be surprised to see the momentum in this series go back and forth throughout. I'll stick with the vets with the home court. Clippers in 7. (1 game in: not shocked by the Mavs stealing Game One, I think the game was closer than it looked and that the Clippers tried to experiment on D and it didn't work. I can see either team winning but this doesn't change my original thought; I'll stick with the Clippers)

(*) Why didn't they take a run at Blake Griffin? Was Blake set on the Nets or did the Lakers truly think he was washed? At the time, the Lakers were still on course to play the Clippers in the second round, why not roll in with Blake in a Laker uni? What revenge: the Clippers made the recent moves possible by cutting bait on Blake and exiling him to Detroit, for Blake to reappear with Lebron and AD would've been the ultimate kick to the crotch, no?

2020-21 NBA Awards (MVP)

My awards criteria. 1) Player must be in the top 100 in either Minutes Played or Games Played. This gives a pool of 150 players. (Notable players left behind: Lebron James, Joel Embiid, Karl-Anthony Towns, James Harden, Nikola Vucevic, CJ McCollum, Jamal Murray, Kevin Durant, Caris LaVert, Gordon Hayward, Christian Wood, Kelly Oubre, Kristaps Porzingis, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Anthony Davis, Marcus Smart, Aaron Gordon, etc.) 

2) Players must be in the top 20 in either FGA, 3FGA, 2FGA, FTA, Total Rebounds, Assists, Steals, Blocks, or Points. (Notable players left behind: Kawhi Leonard, Paul George (*), Malcolm Brogdon, Micheal Porter Jr., Dillon Brooks, Darius Garland, Harrison Barnes, Denis Shroder, etc.)

3) This leaves a pool of 81 players. I more or less discarded at least one player per team to create an MVP for each team. (Notable players left behind: Kevin Huerter, Jaylen Brown, Joe Harris, PJ Washington, Andrew Wiggins, Tim Hardaway Jr, Ja Morant, Duncan Robinson, Khris Middleton, Jrue Holiday, Lonzo Ball and Brandon Ingram, RJ Barrett, Enes Kanter, Pascal Siakim, Russell Westbrook, etc.)

4) From the pool of team MVP's, surely we can find the league MVP. 

Trae Young (Hawks), Jaysun Tatum (Celtics), Kyrie Irving (Nets), Zach LaVine (Bulls), Terry Rozier (Hornets), Collin Sexton (Cavs), Luka Doncic (Mavs), Nikola Jokic (Nuggets), Jerami Grant (Pistons), Steph Curry (Warriors), Domantas Sabonis (Pacers), Ivaca Zubac (Clipper), Jonas Valenciunas (Grizzlies), Giannis Antetokounpo (Bucks), Anthony Edwards (Wolves), Zion Williamson (Pelicans), Julius Randle (Knicks), Damian Lillard (Blazers), De'Aron Fox (Kings), Fred Van Vleet (Raptors), Rudy Gobert (Jazz), Bradley Beal (Wizards). Lakers, Magic, Rockets, Thunder had no MVP candidate and I couldn't decide on Heat, Sixers, Suns and Spurs. (**)

So....who's the MVP? Well there are some limitations to the above methodology. The Sixers MVP is Joel Embiid, not Simmons or Harris; likewise, the Wolves MVP is Karl-Anthony Towns, not the rookie PG. I'm not sure who the Clipper MVP is but I'm certain it's not Ivaca Zubac. The Laker MVP is....not nobody. I can live with no candidates from Thunder, Rockets and Magic because these three organizations did virtually nothing to win games. But to miss on playoff teams like the Sixers, Clippers and Lakers is clearly awkward. (***)

Okay here's the case for Embiid (though he didn't play enough for my liking): top 15 in Points scored, top 18 in True Shooting Percentage (only Curry, Jokic and Zion scored more Points), #2 in FTA (on 86% shooting), #2 in PER (behind only Jokic), #2 in Usage (behind only Luka), #15 in Total Rebounds, #33 in Steals + Blocks, and was the clear MVP of a #1 seed. Also, he's a fun watch and has even toned down the pointless quick 3's he used to indulge in. 

I didn't find anyone else to add back into consideration. (****)

MVP: Nikola Jokic (Nuggets) #1 in PER (31.3), #3 in Points, #6 in Minutes Played, #14 in FTA (87% shooter), #3 in Assists (#5 in Turnovers, though the asst:to is still pretty great), #5 in Total Rebounds, #15 in Steals + Blocks, #15 in True Shooting % (only Curry outscored him) and was the clear MVP of a #2 seed. Nice work. He's been the man all year long. 

The rest of my top ten: Steph Curry (Warriors), Joel Embiid (Sixers), Giannis Antetokounpo (Bucks), Julius Randle (Knicks), Kyrie Irving (Nets)(*****), Luka Doncic (Mavs), Zion Williamson (Pelicans), Damien Lillard (Blazers), Rudy Gobert (Jazz)

(*) Did you realize that for the 2020-21 NBA season, Paul George finished in the top 20 of only one counting stat: Turnovers. 

(**) Couldn't decide: 

(Heat) Bam Adebayo v Jimmy Butler. Adebayo scored more points on more attempts and was in the top 20 in Rebounds (Off, Def and Total) and FTA while playing more minutes in more games; Butler's asst:to ratio is pretty phenomenal and his 2FG% and FT% are excellent; both are top quality in Steals and Blocks with Adebayo having the slight edge on Butler. But Adebayo is turnover prone, while Butler is really bad 3-pt shooter. My gut is to take Adebayo's overall contribution but Butler's presence is clearly commanding and decisive. Hard to choose. 

(Sixers) Ben Simmons v Tobias Harris. The Good: Simmons is a good assist man and a great defender; Harris is a good shooter from all over the floor, way more of a scorer than Simmons and he also out rebounded Simmons this season. The Bad: Simmons is a terrible FT shooter (and ought to get to the line a lot more anyway), he's clearly reluctant to shoot and a bit turnover prone; Harris is a solid player on both ends but nothing superlative compared to his peers. (Yeah: the problem here is that neither of these guys is the Sixer MVP this season, but here I'm leaning toward Harris, I think he actually contributes more all around than Simmons)

(Suns) Devin Booker v Chris Paul v Deandre Ayton. Booker is the better scorer (top 20 in 2FGA and FTA, good percentage on both), though he is turnover prone and an overrated 3-pt shooter. Paul (as always) sports a legendary asst:to, his Steals plus Blocks is high level and his scoring is still reliable. Ayton is killing on Rebounds and Blocks, shoots a good percentage and doesn't seem foul prone. The three all played similar minutes in similar games. Booker is the filler upper, Paul is the brains of the operation, but Ayton deserves his share of the credit for being a dependable defensive bedrock (the poor man's Gobert but much better on offense). This team is more a 3-headed monster than most folks notice and picking their MVP is tougher than I would've thought. 

(Spurs) Dejounte Murray v DeMar DeRozan. Murray is among the league leaders in Assists, Steals and Defensive Rebounds but is not a particularly good 3-pt shooter and feels like he should be getting more Free Throws. DeRozan is still a good scorer inside the 3-pt line and outpaces Murray by a large margin on FTA and Assists. (Both sport very impressive asst:to) Murray played more minutes in more games but scored far fewer points and while he doesn't do anything badly, his production still lags DeRozan. Similar to Adebayo and Butler, both of these guys perform their tasks well enough that it's hard to see who is actually more valuable.  

(***) Also, Nikola Vucevic (Bulls/Magic) had a really good season but no one noticed because it was split between two teams that did nothing this season. Too bad, he's not gonna get any MVP votes this year when he deserves to at least be in the conversation: #3 in Total Rebounds, #11 in Points, #18 in PER, #23 in Usage, #22 in True Shooting %, all while surrounded by non-playoff rosters. Almost certainly the most underappreciated player in the league right now. Bonus: I think this was the sneaky best transaction of the season: we obsess over the worst contract in basketball, but I would submit that Vucevic over the next 3 years is arguably the best contract in the league and the Bulls made a brilliant move snapping him up. 

(****) Lebron, I hear you say. Lebron only played 44 games and, of course, he was Lebron. But his team finished 7th and needs a real coming together to look dangerous in the playoffs. So what exactly am I supposed to be putting on my all-NBA team? This guy? Why? Yeah, even upon deeper consideration I can't put Lebron wildly ahead of Jonas Valenciunas--yes, I realize Lebron is a better player but in this particular season his performance was not all that noteworthy. He's not getting on my MVP ballot and I don't see how he had a top 15 season this year, so inclusion on all-NBA team is just some kind of hero worship. 

Karl-Anthony Towns has nice stats, he's a nice player. Good shooting percentage at all levels, reliable rebounder, decent defender, decent playmaker, I like his game. But this is Anthony Edwards' team now, you realize that, right? Edwards is still raw but he's enormously promising--don't be shocked if he turns into Giannis....yeah, I said that--and Towns (and Beasley and Russell and this year's draft pick) needs to get himself oriented to the new paradigm. So does Towns deserve to be on my MVP ballot? Nope, not this year. I like him, like his game, think Minnesota is strangely promising, but nothing Towns did this season puts him ahead of Nikola Vucevic on my ballot. 

(*****) Kyrie Irving finished in the top 20 in Points without finishing in the top 20 in FGA, 3FGA, 2FGA or FTA. Uh....that doesn't even seem possible... 

(******) Next year's MVP candidates to keep an eye on: De'Aaron Fox (Kings), Bam Adebayo (Heat), Dejounte Murray (Spurs), Domantas Sabonis (Pacers), Nikola Vucevic (Bulls), Jaysun Tatum (Celtics)