2024-25 NHL Conference Finals (after 3 games)

East

Panthers 5-2 Hurricanes

Panthers 5-0 Hurricanes

Hurricanes 2-6 Panthers

Yawn. This series was over almost instantly, the Panthers are better at both ends and in every way than the Hurricanes, who are struggling to even look competitive. I'd be kinda shocked if this isn't over in 4. 

West

Oilers 3-6 Stars

Oilers 3-0 Stars

Stars 1-6 Oilers

In Game One, the Oilers were up 3-1 going into the 3rd period. Out of the blue, the Stars dominated the shit out of the Oilers for 20 minutes and easily took Game One. Other than the 3rd period of Game One, the Oilers have completely controlled this series, again, better at both ends than their hapless opponent. They did give away a game, so this one will be going 5 games instead of 4, but this probably should've been a sweep. 

We are headed to a rematch of last year's Final, which was a wild series with each team running 3 straight before the Oilers kinda collapsing in Game Seven. I suspect this year's series will be tighter but should still go 7 games. 

2023-24 NFL Super Bowl (Predictions)

Conference Finals

Chiefs 17-10 Ravens

Well, the Ravens picked a bad time to play their worst game of the year, but I kinda saw it coming (but tried to ignore it), because the Ravens have benefitted immensely throughout the season from other people's mistakes instead of their own brilliance. I like Lamar Jackson, I'd say he is the deserving MVP, he had a hell of a season and that Ravens defense is really good--one of the greatest of all time? Well, no, but one of the better defenses of this season, absolutely. But still the Ravens have accrued most of their W's from other teams self-destructing as much as the Ravens getting it done. 

Meanwhile, the Chiefs also have a great QB and one of the league's better defenses, so was this a match of evenly matched teams? Well, no. I'd still say the Ravens were a more complete team with a more reliable offense and more reliable defense. All they had to do was avoid the dumb mistakes and wait for the other team to falter--and as great as Mahomes is, he doesn't have that much to work with these days--so expecting the Ravens to win even while thinking they are a bit overrated does not seem like a crazy concept to me (indeed, I still had the Ravens winning and covering even though I've been skeptical of them all season). 

But, all that said, the Ravens sucked so bad in the 2nd half--and the Chiefs didn't hardly do anything--that it is kinda shocking that the Ravens made it this far. The Ravens couldn't sustain drives in the 1st half and found unique and interesting ways to sabotage their good drives in the 2nd half. But even with all that, the Ravens were still the better team and should've won--and probably even covered! 

The Chiefs started with 3 good drives that netted them 17 points and then....survived. Are the Chiefs good? The Dolphins were completely falling apart by the time the post-season arrived, the Bills defense was decimated and the Ravens kept shooting themselves in the foot over and over. My take that this team is just Mahomes, a so-so running game and a pretty good defense and nothing else is still intact.  

Lions 31-34 Niners

The Lions built up an impressive 24-7 lead at halftime, but then completely foundered in the 2nd half and outside of a garbage time TD, basically couldn't do anything right. Too bad because the 1st half Lions were easily the best of the 4 teams that played today. But they couldn't convert on 4th down (Reynolds!), gave up a miracle reception, gave away a particularly egregious fumble, couldn't convert on 3rd down (Reynolds!) and then chose to go for it on 4th down when tying the game with FG was clearly the better move. Look, coach, I love that you "believe" in your guys and you like to gamble--that's great! But is okay to "believe" in your kicker, too, and to gamble on a game-tying FG, too. 

As for the Niners, they started the game trying to ride McCaffrey and that kinda went nowhere. But in the 2nd half they rode Deebo Samuel and that was much more effective. Then they rode the momentum that the Lions just couldn't regain and, well, that was enough to move on from the NFC. The Niners all season long were pretty clearly the best team in football on both sides of the ball. But the Packers and Lions both stifled the mighty Niner defense and the offense came alive when needed but could've asserted more control (if you really think they're that good).  

Super Bowl

Niners (-1.5) @ Chiefs (o/u (47.5)

Okay, well, right off: after the Conference Finals I can't help thinking that a Ravens-Lions SB would've been a much invigorating game, but this is what we have. 

The Niners defense has looked pretty bad for a while now, can they stop Mahomes? The Chiefs made good use of TE Kelce before halftime against the Ravens, but I don't think the Niners will let that happen. I kinda think Kelce (aka "Mr. Swift") will be strangely non-existent in this match since the Niners clearly have the LB strength to take him out. But that should offer chances for the Chiefs WRs at the second level. If the Niner pass rush can re-emerge, then Mahomes will be hard-pressed to take advantage of this. But if he has time, I expect the WRs to get 1st downs. Mahomes is a genius, entirely up to the Niner pass rush to get going, but so far it seems like Mahomes is brilliant early but wears down as the game goes on. 

On the other side, QB Brock Purdy has a habit of starting slow, then making the right plays down the stretch. That might work against the Chiefs, if their offense diminishes after halftime, but I think it'd be much better if Purdy got going early. Last time, they leaned on McCaffrey early but had success going to Samuel, let's see if they feature Samuel out of the gate. The Chiefs D is good but the Niner offense should be dynamic enough to move the ball. If Purdy plays mistake-free, they should be much better than the Chiefs. But the Niners have played their worst football of the season in the last few weeks, are they gonna turn it around in time?

Okay, I've picked against Mahomes three straught weeks, am I dumb enough to do it again? Yes, I am. Because I think the Chiefs opponents have mostly self-destructed lately and I'm going to put my faith in the sheer depth of Niner talent to get the stops needed and to pressure Mahomes throughout. If so, the Niners could win easily. And, frankly, they better because if they let the Chiefs hang around, Mahomes has the magic to steal away the big game.

I agonized over this match for two weeks now, but suddenly it seems to me that this has the chance to be a Niner boat race. If they play their best game on both sides, they should be far superior to the Chiefs. I'm betting they put together the right plan and get the luck they need because the Chiefs offense just isn't the dynamic force it has been in recent years and as good as the Chiefs D is, the Niners have plenty of firepower on their offense. If Purdy plays mistake-free and either Samuel or McCaffrey bust loose, then the Niners should dominate this game. They haven't shown it lately, but I'm betting the Niners shine out here and control this game from start to finish (yeah, I know....Mahomes....). I see the Chiefs winning a close game but the Niners winning a blowout. 

I'll say Niners 34-17 (Niners and over). 

2022-23 NBA Playoffs (3rd Round, 5 games in)

Lakers 126-132 Nuggets

Lakers 103-108 Nuggets

Nuggets 119-108 Lakers

Nuggets 113-111 Lakers

Game One felt to me like it would be the template of the series: Nuggets came out dominant, built a huge lead, Jokic was breaking NBA records by halftime and then the Lakers salted away that lead and came close to overtaking the home team, when the Nuggets put the clamp down on (scrum at the Lakers end led to a breakaway dunk for Gordon with about a minute to go and that was that). Takeaway: Nuggets offense is pretty great and their defense is pretty bad. 

But the next three games went the other way: Lakers came out strong but couldn't ever really hold the Nuggets off. Can't tell you how many times the Lakers would go on a crazy run, getting buckets, making plays, got all the momentum....and you'd look up and they're ahead by 4....really? This Nuggets team doesn't stay cold for long and no matter how bad their D is, they've always got a chance to seal it late. And they did in each of the last three games. 

The Lakers had a nice run after a sloppy regular season but they just weren't as good as the Nuggets (were they really better than the Grizzlies or Warriors?) and Lebron's first loss in the final four was the end result. Austin Reaves and Rui Hachimura were the big revelations (and the next big off-season question marks), so Laker fans can still say they had a good season and look forward to next year. And, in true look-at-me fashion, Lebron hinted at retirement (*), so we talked about that for a week rather than acknowledging the obvious truth that the Nuggets are the best team and Nikola Jokic is the best player in the league right now.  

Heat 123-116 Celtics

Heat 111-105 Celtics

Celtics 128-102 Heat

Celtics 102-82 Heat 

Heat 97-110 Celtics

The Heat just outplayed the Celtics in the first two games in Boston, then mopped the floor with the listless Celtics in Game Three. But the Celtics woke up, rode a hot 3rd quarter to a season-saving W in Game Four and then came out hot (and the Heat kinda mailed it in) in Game Five to keep the series alive. 

Right off the bat: all the Celtics looked great in Game Five and utterly awful in Game Three. But otherwise, Jaysun Tatum has been good not great, Jaylen Brown has been ineffective (to use the charitable term), Robert Williams has actually been pretty great but Malcolm Brogdon, Marcus Smart, Derrick White and Al Horford have all been okay in the wins and not so good in the losses. 

For the Heat Jimmy Butler was dominant in the 3 W's and MIA (**) in the two losses. Man, something I noticed about Bam Adebayo: he's typically always great at either defense or offense but he's never great (or bad) at BOTH ends and, holy shit, that kid never gets any calls! Considering how hard he works and what a nice guy he seems like, it's kind of amazing how little love he gets from the refs. Caleb Martin has been great all through this post-season--I'd say he's the real difference maker on this year's run. Kyle Lowry veers between sneaky good and utterly unplayable. Duncan Robinson has returned to the rotation and occasionally looks like really good. Max Struss has generally been good, though he strangely disappeared in Game Five. Gabe Vincent has been nice and they even got some good minutes out of Heywood Highsmith. 

The reason the Heat found themselves up 3-0 in the conference finals is because they've been hitting crazy shots (especially Martin) for three straight rounds now. If that continues, they'll mow down the Celtics; if it doesn't, they'll have to dig deep because the momentum has swung back  to the Celtics, who suddenly have nothing left to lose.

I think the Heat will win tonight--and if they don't, I still think they'll win in Game Seven back in Boston. So though I picked the Celtics in 7, still very much on the table, I wasn't that enthusiastic about that pick and even though they seem to have right the ship, I'm still dubious of their chances of taking two more from the Heat. Looking forward to Game Six tonight because both teams need to bring it. 

The Celtics coming back from 3-0 would be one of the weirder things I've seen in the NBA in a while--and that's considering the #1 Bucks got dusted, the #2 Grizzlies couldn't hang, the defending champ Warriors (***) stumbled around all season long and the left-for-dead Lakers made a run to the final four. Been a weird season, weird playoffs--and a weird summer awaits! 

(*) Will Lebron retire this summer? No fuckin' way! The only scenario that would keep Lebron from coming back next year is if this summer's surgery goes horribly horribly wrong, which I don't anticipate will happen. So unless Lebron gets hit by a comet, I fully expect him to be back next season. 

(**) "Ask me why...am I....M-I-A...Am I in heaven or am I in Miami"....Ah, an old favorite. 

(***) Weird observation. The Nuggets swept the Lakers but all four games were competitive. I can't help thinking that if the Nuggets had played the Warriors instead, the Warriors would've gotten hot and stole a game...but would've gotten absolutely curb stomped in the other four games. Does that make sense? Nuggets-Lakers was a tennis match where the two competitors were actually pretty close though the scoreline looks like a walkover, whereas the Nuggets-Warriors would've been a pummeling where the scoreline would've looked a little less bad for the loser. Weird season, man, and I love it. 

2018-19 NBA Conference Finals

In the West, the Warriors have moved on. Not much to dissect: the Blazers just aren't as good as the Warriors and since Lillard never looked quite right (busted ribs?), the Blazers never had a chance in this series. They probably should've pulled out Game Three but they ran out of gas late and that was that; yeah, I get that Meyers Leonard balled out in the first half, but that was found money and they needed to not rely on him in the second half. Blazers had a hell of a year, a lot to be proud of. They'll be losing a raft of supporting cast this summer (Aminu, Kanter, Seth Curry, Hood and Layman) and they're already over the cap, so they'll need to be creative to put together the right roster next season (if they could package Evan Turner and/or Meyers Leonard into a coupla lower-priced bench players, they'd only need to stay healthy to have a chance in the post-season).

In the East, I am puzzled on the eve of Game Six. My pre-season pick to come out of the East was the Raptors and I reiterated that going into the post-season. But going into this final series I switched to the Bucks because they just seemed to have a better sense of themselves and, well, the Bucks were the best team in the league all season long. But they blinked and suddenly they do not look like themselves and that makes tonight's game extremely intriguing. 

Honestly it's that Games Three and Four were reversed from the likely reality that makes this all so weird. If I told you that after winning the first two in Milwaukee that the Bucks looked flat in Toronto and the Raptors bench came alive and put a good whooping on the Bucks, well, that wouldn't be such a shock. And if the next game was a rock fight that turned into a double overtime struggle that the home team Raptors pulled out to even the series, well, that wouldn't be such a shock either. But the fact that it happened the other way around doesn't make much sense. Game Three was the double OT slugfest (and rather shockingly dull game, incidentally) while Game Four was the Raptors onslaught, that...uh...makes you go, 'Wait, what's going on?' Did the Raptors just take hold of this series? Is this a home team wins every game series? 

I assumed the Bucks would turn it around back home in Game Five but they did not. Indeed, I was amazed at how close it was and that the Bucks still should've won it considering that Giannis never got his groove going, Middleton didn't shoot the ball (not that he didn't shoot well, but that he didn't shoot at all!), Bledsoe had moments but no consistency, Connaughton was kinda awful, Lopez wasn't much help, Hill had a coupla nice moments but nothing that sustained, I thought really only Brogdon looked like himself out there. Meanwhile, the Raptors controlled the flow by the end of the 1st quarter, they were getting the calls (I was blown away at Siakam and Gasol getting calls that Giannis was not getting), and their bench shined out (Van Vleet! Gotta say fatherhood looks good on him) in front of a stunned Milwaukee crowd. So wtf just happened? The Raptors did everything right, had all the luck and the Bucks did everything wrong...and the Bucks were still in it late. So are the Raptors the better team asserting dominance? Or are the Bucks the better team and just not getting lucky? 

The Bucks go into Game Six on their first 3-game losing streak of the season and the Raptors are one home win away from the Finals. What's gonna happen? I have no idea. If Giannis doesn't get the calls tonight, the Bucks are finished; but if he snaps back into his game, I think the Bucks can still win the next two games. Giannis looks shook and Kawhi, well that dude never looks shook. I gotta think the Raptors are gonna take it tonight simply because you would expect the home team's supporting cast to to be more effective, but it could all come down to the refs. Look forward to this game as much as any NBA game since opening night!

2017-18 NBA Conference Finals

Each series is taking a lengthy break following Game Two. 

Cavs 0-2 Celtics
Going into this series it seemed to me that the Celtics had every possible advantage and the Cavs had Lebron. The Celtics blitzed the Cavs in Game One, getting out to an insurmountable lead, with just about everybody shining out: Brown in the 1st, Tatum in the 3rd, Horford in the 4th, Smart making plays, Baynes knocking down shots, it was team effort (the exact opposite of the Cavs). In Game Two, the Cavs kinda tried to make more of an effort but really it was just Lebron. (Personally I think Game Two is the template: make Lebron do literally everything) For the Celtics this is playing out like the 2nd round: up 2-0 on a team that thinks they should be winning, if they can take Game Three, that would be a death blow.

I said Cavs in 7 and I can still see that happening, though the Celtics are clearly the more complete teams. I expect the Cavs to bounce back in Game Three: they'll be at home, Smith will make buckets, they'll have the good energy rather than the bad energy, I expect them to stave off the Celtics' death blow. But Game Four is up for grabs, the Cavs better win that one. If the Celtics take either of the next two games, they'll be tough to beat back in home in Game Five. I'll switch to the Celtics, hard to see the Cavs winning four of the next five, more likely that the Celtics just keep tightening up


Warriors 1-1 Rockets
Warriors shone out, took Game One, then hung back and let the Rockets get by them in Game Two. Not uncommon for the Warriors to let road games go, I'd be kinda shocked if the Warriors lost Game Three. And kinda shocked if they lost Game Four, either. The Rockets are good but they are much more likely to fall apart than pull it together. The Warriors are still getting better. I said Warriors in 6, I'll stick with that.