2023 NCAA Men's Final Four

Florida Atlantic 71-72 San Diego St

While watching the tourney it struck me that FAU was not a fluke--indeed, I expect teams like this to dominate the next few tourneys. What are they? A mid-level powerhouse filled with juniors and seniors that know their game and know who they are, as opposed to Freshman-phenom-led bluebloods that have to reinvent themselves every few weeks. FAU was a good team but here in this game, they just lost track of how much time was left, I'd say, because that's what happened to me while watching the game. Spoiler alert: San Diego State stole the game on a buzzer beater and that was their only lead in the 2nd half of the game. But, like FAU, I was already moving on to the next game, when on the final possession, it dawned on me, ''oh shit, San Diego can win this!" And, well, they did. We love buzzer beaters, love the drama, and that's all great, but...man, San Diego State was not as good as FAU and were not a better opponent to UConn in the final. Fun game, fun conclusion, one that will be in the reel with all the classic tourney moments for a while, but not the right conclusion because FAU was the better team and the more worthy finalist. 

Miami 59-72 Connecticut

Yeah, we love the upsets and tumult of the tourney but then when you end up four so-so teams at the end, it doesn't seem worth it. Miami was not particularly good, they could not hang with UConn at all and this game was rather boring. Yeah, I'm making it sound like UConn was a powerhouse--no! Oh, no, not at all. They have a big guy down low (Adama Sanogo) that was unstoppable (at the NCAA level) and a nice wing shooter (Jordan Hawkins) and, uh, that was it. UConn kinda fell asleep in the 2nd half and got away from the obvious game plan of feeding Sanogo, which allowed Miami to get back into it, but Miami was never going to win this game, they just didn't have enough, but UConn did have a stretch of trying to give it away. 

San Diego St 59-76 Connecticut

Okay, I'll say it: this UConn team is the least impressive champion of my lifetime. Indeed, that is such an easy call, I haven't bothered to come up with another candidate. Again, Adama Sanogo is a nice college player (I don't see him at the next level at all) and Hawkins is a nice wing shooter (probably his ceiling would be the next Kyle Kuzma) and that's it; don't be fooled that their long-armed defense kept San Diego State at bay--San Diego State had no offense at all and had no business being anywhere near the final game. UConn won the tourney--I don't begrudge them their championship, I'm just saying, this is the least impressive champion I've ever seen. And now they've got 5, good for them (but FAU has a better shot of being back next year than UConn--and would've given UConn a better match than San Deigo State ever could have!).  

2022 Final Four & Championship

Games I watched:

(8) North Carolina 81-77 (2) Duke

Ohhhhhhhhh! What a pleasure to watch! Hell, yeah, I even left my house and went to the local Regal Beagle because I had to see this one. I'm a total sports nerd, watch sports of some kind just about every day, but it's been a while since I've felt this level of anticipation for a game. And the Tarheels did not let me down. I come not to praise Coach K but to bury him. (*) I would've preferred watching him lose to Kentucky, but, hey, a 2-game losing streak to UNC when he's got a team of 5 lottery picks was schadenfreude enough for me. As for this game, it was tight all the way through, Duke had moments when it looked like they might pull away but that never lasted long. UNC had a nice run right at the beginning of the 2nd half and though they weren't able to build a lead and hold it, it was enough to sustain them down to the final minute. And in the end, well, UNC got hot and Duke went cold. So long, Coach K, glad to see ya go (**). 

Other results:

(2) Villanova 65-81 (1) Kansas

Kansas scored the first 10 points and that was pretty much it, they carried a double digit lead for most of the rest of the game. When Villanova almost kinda came close to making a run, KU shut 'em down and closed it out. This Kansas team is strange: there is nothing dominant about them at all, this is not one of the more talented Jayhawk squads and there's cloud hanging over them (re: they're not likely to be allowed into next year's tourney). But they play good team defense and shoot well and they persevere, which has carried them all the way to the Final where they are the favorite (and were my pick to win it all). Nova made a good run, but this was not a classic Nova team by any means, either. Weird year in college b-ball, kinda makes sense that the semifinal was blue bloods, I reckon. 

The Final:

(8) North Carolina 69-72 (1) Kansas

Kinda bittersweet as a Kentucky fan: the Wildcats whomped the shit out of both of these teams this year, but they're here and the Wildcats aren't. To be fair: UNC is a totally different team now and KU just had a bad shooting night. (Oh, and on the Ladies' side, dominant champion South Carolina suffered only two losses all year long, the last one being to Kentucky...damn, so close and yet neither the boys nor the girls went deep this year)

Despite a 15 point lead at the half, the Tarheels could not keep the momentum going and the Jayhawks steadily pounded away and finished it off even after some dubious play down the stretch. Hey, I picked 'em to win so I can't be shocked that Kansas finished the tourney strong, but I still think this is one of the weirder champions after one of the weirder seasons that I can remember. 

(*) Blogspot wouldn't let me publish this post initially. Yes, I expressed my lifelong disdain for Duke but I wasn't in any way advocating any harm to anything Duke-related. But, well, I did perhaps go a little far in expressing a similar disdain for Bobby Knight and, yes, well, there was an anecdote that was probably worthy of being excised (all the darlings come and go). So, a coupla days later, I gotta say kudos to you, Blogspot. You were (probably) right and I was (probably) wrong but hey, man, college sports just brings it out of me in ways that the rest of planet Earth does not. Thank you, Blogspot, for curbing my weaker tendencies.

(**) Here's how I will always remember Coach K and his dukies. 

2021 NCAA Final Four (the before)

(2) Houston - (1) Baylor (-4) (o/u 132.5)

Just noticed that Houston has only played double digit seeds ((15) Cleveland St, (10) Rutgers, (11) Syracuse, (12) Oregon St), feasting off the upsets that got handed to them. I like Houston, I think they're a nice team, I think on any given night they can be a really great team and maybe they have that in them. But they haven't seen anyone nearly as good as Baylor in many weeks now and I gotta think that catches up to them. Baylor is a really good team and they have the weakness of some really good teams: they got overconfident and slow down before the game is won. I can see a scenario where Houston gets hot late and steals it. But I think Baylor makes FT's and wins going away. I'll say Baylor 71-60 (Baylor and the under)

(11) UCLA - (1) Gonzaga (-13.5) (o/u 135.5)

Frankly, UCLA should've lost to Alabama and Michigan, Abilene Christian was a gift, BYU is nice but not an overly impressive win and Michigan St was as bad as they've been in years, so UCLA's run has been pretty lucky so far. Gonzaga doesn't win with luck, they win by being better at every position and every phase of the game. So...yeah, I can see UCLA putting up points to keep it from being a blowout, but I'm expecting Gonzaga to be in control throughout. I'll say Gonzaga 78-66 (UCLA and the over)

2018-19 NCAA Final Four

Texas Tech 75-69 Gonzaga

Tech plays some good D, they're sneaky good with the ball and when they're hitting 3's, they're pretty goddamn good. That said, I still thought this was Gonzaga's L more than Tech's W. Gonzaga's offense just spun in circles throughout the 2nd half after a pretty good opening. I think it was less about Tech's defense, which was fine, and more about Tech's offense being able to keep pace in a way that caught the Zags off guard. Gonzaga should've won this game, they were the better team but their offense fell off and ground to a halt right as Tech made its move. Tech moves on, but again: they caught Michigan unable to knock down shots and then Gonzaga unable to put together a consistent game, so is Tech really this good or are they just catching bad nights from superior teams? Tech certainly doesn't suck, they deserve to be here, but its still hard to tell how good they really are and if they're really capable of giving Michigan State a game. We'll see.

Purdue 75-80 (OT) Virginia

Good game! Purdue's Carsen Edwards was money all night and he alone kept Purdue's offense afloat in this game, where Virginia shot well but didn't exactly play their best defense. Back and forth action, both teams raining 3's, felt like Purdue was gonna close it out, but UVA tied it up late on a full court pass and amazing finish (wow! That pass and finish should become one of the iconic images of the tourney for years to come, especially if UVA wins it all). In OT, Purdue kinda ran out of gas and Virginia pounced on their chance. Good W for Virginia, gotta feel bad for Purdue who had this one in their grasp.

Auburn 77-71 (OT) Kentucky

As a Cats fan this one was frustrating. If UK makes their free throws, they win this game easily. Auburn was already deep in foul trouble before halftime, felt like the opportunity was there for UK to exploit that with their size down low, methodically send all of Auburn's players to the bench, make free throws and salt this game away. But instead Auburn was able to get easy shots in the lane over and over again (how? UK's size advantage was massive) and Kentucky just couldn't figure out how to counter. Auburn's MO all year long has been their 3-point shooting but that's not what won this game for them, here they were more effective at knocking down 15 footers and getting to the foul line. And even as poorly as Kentucky played, they were able to get the game into OT, where they had chances to control the action. Yeah, I know this sounds bitchy but Kentucky really should've won this game and while Auburn played really well, even that was predicated on Kentucky failing to take advantage of their size. (Still don't understand the mock drafts: how are you watching this UK team and thinking that Keldon Johnson has more upside than PJ Washington? Based on what?)

Michigan State 68-67 Duke

Fun game! Duke had been playing with fire all through this tournament to the point where you wondered whether they would eventually get burned or that they were so destined to win it all that it didn't even matter if they played shaky. It was the former. Duke had been leaving the door open and Michigan State was the one that stole it late: nailed the big shots when they had to and kept Zion away from the ball for the last few minutes and that was it. This Duke team was wildly unbalanced, that #1 recruiting class was all by themselves out there and the tourney struggles finally caught up to them. This Michigan State team is not flashy or wildly talented but they're deep and well-disciplined and PG Cassius Winston controls the ball as well as anyone I've seen in this tourney. I think they're the team to beat from here.


Final four:
Auburn - Virginia (-5.5)

Same as ever for Auburn: if they're hitting 3's, they can beat anyone; but if they're not, they can lose to anyone. That said, that game plan really only played out against North Carolina: Kansas was not at full strength and frankly Auburn handled them pretty easily and Kentucky was a familiar opponent (those division/conference teams make for anything-can-happens kinda contests) who bungled their chances to put Auburn away. But against UNC, Auburn scored, scored, scored and buried the Tar Heels in a way that could happen again to UVA. And UVA's defense does kinda allow that to happen: they dominate the top of the lane but can be beat over the top from the wings. I think Virginia has enough offense to counter Auburn's scoring and keep from getting buried. I like Virginia to play solid defense, knock down enough perimeter shots to match Auburn's attack and to hit their free throws down the stretch and pull away late. I like Virginia to win and cover.

Texas Tech - Michigan State (-3)
These are two workmanlike teams that have done what they needed to do to get this far. Tech will lock down the lane on defense, but I like State's chances to drive and kick (which Michigan couldn't do at all against this Tech squad) and to maintain their consistency in the 2nd half (which Gonzaga couldn't do either). Tech will stay close, they're savvy, they play together and I think they'll knock down enough shots to keep this one close throughout and I think they'll even have a chance to win it late. But I like Winston to keep his cool and make plays throughout that give State the upper hand. I think this one goes right down to the final play. I'll take State to win, but I like Tech to keep it close.

2018 NCAA Final Four

Loyola-Chicago - Michigan (-5)
Loyola is a surprise but they shouldn't be, they've been damn good all year long and in this tourney they've picked up quality W's over Miami, Tennessee and Nevada. Can they beat Michigan? Yeah, why not? Michigan has been solid all year and ramped up their play to take the Big 10 tourney, with impressive W's over Texas A&M and Gonzaga last week. I like Loyola to keep it going, I think they're a complete team on a mission, they're the fan favorite and you gotta love 'em as an underdog. I'll take Loyola-Chicago to win.

Kansas - Villanova (-5)
Blueblood squads but neither of them are really are bringing their best. Kansas feels like the overachiever here, they're good when they pull it together but they haven't done that all that much this year. Villanova feels like they've steadily (though only marginally) declined since winning the titles 2 years ago, but they've still got the great coach and supporting cast. I feel like Villanova wins the game whether it's close or not. So the question is will Kansas cover the spread? I'll take Nova to win but the Jayhawks to cover.