2025-26 NBA Playoffs (after two rounds)

East

Cavs over Pistons in 7

This felt like a classic home team wins every game series and for the first 4 games, that's how it played. Then the Cavs stole Game Five in Detroit: Pistons were up 9 with 3 minutes to go, the game felt well in hand to me, but then the Pistons just straight ran out of gas and could not score again to save their lives. The Cavs took it to OT and dominated the extra period. But the Pistons came back strong in Cleveland, while the Cavs floundered badly and it went back to Detroit for Game Seven. Right away, the Cavs got buckets, Donovan Mitchell was getting assists finding Evan Mobley and Jarret Allen, the Pistons couldn't get their shooting going and it was all over. The Pistons vaunted D absolutely cratered as their lack of offense turned into confident possessions for the Cavs. 

The Pistons were a one-note team all year long but at the end of the season they kept getting W's without Cade and that impressed me, I thought the supporting cast could go up a level once Cade got back. In their best moments against the Magic and the Cavs, that kinda happened; but in their worser moments, it did not. Jalen Duren had a frighteningly bad (considering it is a contract year for him) run against Wendell Carter and Evan Mobley, Tobias Harris had to work too hard to find his scoring (when he did find it), Ausar Thompson's complete lack of offense becomes glaring in the post-season, Duncan Robinson had a nice run but missed a coupla games, Isiah Stewart and Paul Reid had some nice moments but didn't really sustain, Kevin Huerter was hurt and Daniss Jenkins is nice--the only guy that showed up for Game Seven!--but wasn't much of a difference maker. The rotation behind Cade is just so-so, which really makes you appreciate how damn good Cade was this year. The season was a pleasant surprise but, man, this summer is not looking good for them. They have a lot of questions, we'll see if they come up with some answers. 

Knicks over Sixers in 4

The Knicks got hot against the Hawks and kept it going. I didn't watch much of this series, because it was over so quick. The Knicks are on a seven game winning streak, playing their best ball of the season. 

The Sixers overachieved against the Celtics (who underachieved) only to receive a vicious reminder that they were not one of the best 8 teams in the NBA this year. Tyrese Maxey is stretching into a great team leader, VJ Edgecombe would've won Rookie of the Year in most seasons and Paul George really found something after his suspension late in the season. I've never been a Joel Embiid fan (and I'm still not), but he must still be considered part of their core because the Sixers are on the hook for another $180m to him so clearly he's not going anywhere. Adem Bona is a workable rotation guy. They got important minutes out of Kelly Oubre, Quentin Grimes and Andre Drummond this year, are any of those guys coming back and, if not, how do they get replaced? Where do they go from here? They've got Maxey and Edgecombe and the #22 pick...and...well....they've still got their 1st rounder for 2027, so I'm guessing they're on their way to a rebuild (I believe they call it a "Process" in Philly).  Could they swap Paul George for Jimmy Butler to get off big money without picking up any stray W's? They've already fired GM Darryl Morey, just the beginning of a clumsy summer ahead for the Sixers.

West

Thunder over Lakers in 4

Yawn! Another quick shredding for the Thunder that I barely paid attention to. 

The Lakers were without Luka Doncic for the entire series and as Austin Reaves was returning from an injury, his performance was up and down. Lebron is still a great player but he was all alone out there, squeezing what he could out of Rui Hachimura, Deandre Ayton, Luke Kennard and a mildly rejuvenated Marcus Smart (he was pretty good actually, but just not enough to make a difference). They didn't have enough to even come close to hanging with the Thunder. With Luka, maybe they would've scratched a game or two out of them, but I doubt even that would've made much difference. Next year, all they have right now is Luka, Jarred Vanderbilt, Jake LaRavia and Dalton Knecht with player options on Ayton (maybe), Smart (probably not) and Reaves, who they need to re-sign (or sign and trade) and the #25 pick . Will they bring back Lebron (doesn't seem like it) or Kennard (I doubt it) or Hachimura (I have no idea). Do people want to play with Luka? Do they want the bright lights of the Lakers? 

Spurs over Wolves in 6

News flash: Wemby is awesome and Dillon Harper is ready to be a major player. Weird series in that all the games were blow outs, as well matched as these two seemed to be, there were no interesting 4th quarters in the whole series. The three headed monster of De'Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle and Harper ran roughshod over the undermanned Wolves. When the Wolves were able to find their shooting touch, they won, but they just didn't do that often enough. They had a lot of length to throw at Wemby but without the requisite scoring, it didn't matter. Julius Randle was set up to be the difference maker and in the first game, he was exactly that; then....he never did that again and whatever advantage the Wolves had evaporated. Also, Rudy Gobert was not good in this series, I wouldn't say he got dominated by Wemby, he just wasn't good. And there was just too much Mike Conley, who had to play expanded minutes because of the loss of Donte DiVincenzo. The Spurs are ahead of schedule and not afraid of the OKC Thunder.

Can the Wolves run it back? Are we ready to say that Gobert is not the Wemby Kryptonite the Wolves need and therefore needs to be traded? Not sure. Is Joan Beringer ready to be the new Gobert and/or the new Wemby Kryptonite? Not sure. Is Naz Reid overrated or underrated? Not sure. (*) Ayo Dosunmu was a revelation against the Nuggets but was mostly invisible against the Spurs 3-guard attack; Bones Hyland, too, emerged against the Nuggets and then submerged against the Spurs; so do they bring those guys back or let them walk? Not sure. Terrence Shannon had moments in this playoff run, is he ready to be a regular contributor in that offense? Not sure. Julius Randle had good moments and bad moments--which he's done his entire career--do they move on from him or hope that he bounces back? Not sure. This team has Anthony Edwards and Jaden McDaniels and....a whole lot of "not sure". I'd say Shannon and Beringer are definitely gonna be a big part of next year's lineup and I would certainly keep Reid, but Gobert and Randle will probably be available and I'm not sure how eager they are to keep Dosunmu, Hyland or Conley. For a team that made back-to-back Western Finals and had moments of looking competitive with the Spurs, the Wolves might be a totally different team next year.

Predictions

Cavs - Knicks

The Cavs have been an unpredictable disappointment guided by Donovan Mitchell (finally reaching the pinnacle of his career right now), James Harden (overrated in his prime and now past his prime) and Even Mobley (projected to be the next super stud who is actually just a nice, overpaid play). When these three bring their best, the Cavs can run up the score, move the ball and play enough defense to hold a lead. But when they don't, it just looks awful and frustrating. Their wins against the Raptors and the Pistons were enlivening, but the losses were dispiriting. To be fair, those are two of the better defenses in the league--both much better than the Knicks--and the Cavs managed to find a way. 

The Knicks are playing their best ball of the season right now but, to be fair, those wins came against the overachieving Hawks and the lucky-to-be-here Sixers, not as impressive as the Cavs opponents. OG Anunoby has been a monster, Karl-Anthony Towns is attacking and avoiding the dumb mistakes that have plagued him his whole career, Josh Hart is running around like a mad man and Jalen Brunson has done just enough, mostly able to keep his powder dry. If the Knicks keep this going, they can roll right over the Cavs, who would fall to pieces under such an onslaught. But if the Knicks falter, have a bad shooting, or run into foul trouble, this series could sideways with a quickness. Indeed, the Knicks could be riding for a major fall--and Knicks fans know it better than anyone. 

The Knicks are the better team but are quite capable of blowing it. The Cavs have the necessary pieces but have yet to really properly deploy those pieces. I'm gonna go off the board: I think the key matchup is Jarret Allen v Mikal Bridges. When the Knicks are rolling, Bridges is the big beneficiary, but when he disappears (which was a lot against the Hawks), the Knicks don't get those extra productivity bumps; the Cavs have never found the right balance for Mobley and Allen, but against the Pistons, it felt to me like their roles emerged. If they overpower Mitchell, it'll require Towns and/or Hart to change up the way they play. It is a seemingly small thing, but if Allen can keep up his play at both ends, that makes everything so much easier for Mobley, which in turn makes everything harder for the Knicks defense. The Knicks think they can outscore the Cavs, but Allen could be the key to upsetting that equilibrium.

Also, unlike the Cavs-Pistons series where I thought the home team had the advantage, I think the opposite in this series. The Knicks can dominate in Cleveland while I think the Cavs could silence the NYC crowd. I'm going reverse home court advantage: I like the Cavs in 6.

Spurs - Thunder

Gonna be awesome. Can't wait. I haven't watched much Thunder (because neither the Suns nor the Lakers put up much to watch) this post-season and really only glimpses here and there of the Spurs (the Blazers were harmless fun but the Wolves games were all too one-sided to be watchable). I think the Thunder are the best roster in the NBA and really only the Spurs can hang with them. What's gonna happen? No idea. I will make this prediction: the Spurs wins will all be close, but the Thunder's wins might becomes blowouts. I'll take Thunder in 7 (solely because I want to see this match up the maximum number of times). 

(*) To me the answer is Naz Reid is underrated, but I've yet to meet anyone that agrees with me--which only proves me right! (Right?)

2026 NCAA (Final Four and Final)

(3) Illinois 62-71 (2) Connecticut

UConn made more shots than Illinois. Sounds rather basic but it felt to me like both teams were getting shots, getting the offense they wanted to get, UConn converted more than Illinois did and that was about it. I think UConn is the most puzzling team of recent times: they're right there every year and I generally don't understand why. I don't see anything special about UConn at all, don't understand how they did so well this season or in this tourney. If Illinois just knocks down some shots, I think they would've won and I feel like I could say that about most of UConn's opponents. I dunno, I just don't understand why they've had so much success.  

(1) Michigan 91-73 (1) Arizona

I thought this one was gonna be a classic but, no, Michigan pretty much shut them down from beginning to end. Arizona had a burst about 10 minutes into the 1st half where they tied it up, but that was the end of that. Michigan ran off before haltime and buried them rather easily in the 2nd half. I was blown away by Arizona's scoring potential against Purdue, thought it would translate to Michigan, but no it did not. I'd be kinda shocked if Michigan didn't mop the floor with UConn.

(2) Connecticut 63-69 (1) Michigan

A rather unsatisfying game. Michigan was the better team but they never could extend their lead or really dominate the action, so UConn hung around even though they weren't really shooting all that well. The refs were letting them on beat on each other so the stretch run of the game was a lot of fouls, replays, clumsy play. I thought Michigan should've pounded UConn and looking back on it....they absolutely should have pounded UConn. But Michigan had their own shooting woes and the style of the refs just slowed everything down and kept giving UConn chances. The Huskies couldn't take advantage of the opportunities but it still made for a sludgy game where the better team felt bridled, instead of unleashing an all-timer of an ass-whippin'. Wolverines are your champs! They really were the best team all through the tourney, one of the best of the regular season, a well put-together collection of length and speed. I doubt this team even hit their peak this season--they could've absolutely demolished the Final but the game itself slowed them down. 

2023 NCAA Men's Final Four

Florida Atlantic 71-72 San Diego St

While watching the tourney it struck me that FAU was not a fluke--indeed, I expect teams like this to dominate the next few tourneys. What are they? A mid-level powerhouse filled with juniors and seniors that know their game and know who they are, as opposed to Freshman-phenom-led bluebloods that have to reinvent themselves every few weeks. FAU was a good team but here in this game, they just lost track of how much time was left, I'd say, because that's what happened to me while watching the game. Spoiler alert: San Diego State stole the game on a buzzer beater and that was their only lead in the 2nd half of the game. But, like FAU, I was already moving on to the next game, when on the final possession, it dawned on me, ''oh shit, San Diego can win this!" And, well, they did. We love buzzer beaters, love the drama, and that's all great, but...man, San Diego State was not as good as FAU and were not a better opponent to UConn in the final. Fun game, fun conclusion, one that will be in the reel with all the classic tourney moments for a while, but not the right conclusion because FAU was the better team and the more worthy finalist. 

Miami 59-72 Connecticut

Yeah, we love the upsets and tumult of the tourney but then when you end up four so-so teams at the end, it doesn't seem worth it. Miami was not particularly good, they could not hang with UConn at all and this game was rather boring. Yeah, I'm making it sound like UConn was a powerhouse--no! Oh, no, not at all. They have a big guy down low (Adama Sanogo) that was unstoppable (at the NCAA level) and a nice wing shooter (Jordan Hawkins) and, uh, that was it. UConn kinda fell asleep in the 2nd half and got away from the obvious game plan of feeding Sanogo, which allowed Miami to get back into it, but Miami was never going to win this game, they just didn't have enough, but UConn did have a stretch of trying to give it away. 

San Diego St 59-76 Connecticut

Okay, I'll say it: this UConn team is the least impressive champion of my lifetime. Indeed, that is such an easy call, I haven't bothered to come up with another candidate. Again, Adama Sanogo is a nice college player (I don't see him at the next level at all) and Hawkins is a nice wing shooter (probably his ceiling would be the next Kyle Kuzma) and that's it; don't be fooled that their long-armed defense kept San Diego State at bay--San Diego State had no offense at all and had no business being anywhere near the final game. UConn won the tourney--I don't begrudge them their championship, I'm just saying, this is the least impressive champion I've ever seen. And now they've got 5, good for them (but FAU has a better shot of being back next year than UConn--and would've given UConn a better match than San Deigo State ever could have!).  

2022 Final Four & Championship

Games I watched:

(8) North Carolina 81-77 (2) Duke

Ohhhhhhhhh! What a pleasure to watch! Hell, yeah, I even left my house and went to the local Regal Beagle because I had to see this one. I'm a total sports nerd, watch sports of some kind just about every day, but it's been a while since I've felt this level of anticipation for a game. And the Tarheels did not let me down. I come not to praise Coach K but to bury him. (*) I would've preferred watching him lose to Kentucky, but, hey, a 2-game losing streak to UNC when he's got a team of 5 lottery picks was schadenfreude enough for me. As for this game, it was tight all the way through, Duke had moments when it looked like they might pull away but that never lasted long. UNC had a nice run right at the beginning of the 2nd half and though they weren't able to build a lead and hold it, it was enough to sustain them down to the final minute. And in the end, well, UNC got hot and Duke went cold. So long, Coach K, glad to see ya go (**). 

Other results:

(2) Villanova 65-81 (1) Kansas

Kansas scored the first 10 points and that was pretty much it, they carried a double digit lead for most of the rest of the game. When Villanova almost kinda came close to making a run, KU shut 'em down and closed it out. This Kansas team is strange: there is nothing dominant about them at all, this is not one of the more talented Jayhawk squads and there's cloud hanging over them (re: they're not likely to be allowed into next year's tourney). But they play good team defense and shoot well and they persevere, which has carried them all the way to the Final where they are the favorite (and were my pick to win it all). Nova made a good run, but this was not a classic Nova team by any means, either. Weird year in college b-ball, kinda makes sense that the semifinal was blue bloods, I reckon. 

The Final:

(8) North Carolina 69-72 (1) Kansas

Kinda bittersweet as a Kentucky fan: the Wildcats whomped the shit out of both of these teams this year, but they're here and the Wildcats aren't. To be fair: UNC is a totally different team now and KU just had a bad shooting night. (Oh, and on the Ladies' side, dominant champion South Carolina suffered only two losses all year long, the last one being to Kentucky...damn, so close and yet neither the boys nor the girls went deep this year)

Despite a 15 point lead at the half, the Tarheels could not keep the momentum going and the Jayhawks steadily pounded away and finished it off even after some dubious play down the stretch. Hey, I picked 'em to win so I can't be shocked that Kansas finished the tourney strong, but I still think this is one of the weirder champions after one of the weirder seasons that I can remember. 

(*) Blogspot wouldn't let me publish this post initially. Yes, I expressed my lifelong disdain for Duke but I wasn't in any way advocating any harm to anything Duke-related. But, well, I did perhaps go a little far in expressing a similar disdain for Bobby Knight and, yes, well, there was an anecdote that was probably worthy of being excised (all the darlings come and go). So, a coupla days later, I gotta say kudos to you, Blogspot. You were (probably) right and I was (probably) wrong but hey, man, college sports just brings it out of me in ways that the rest of planet Earth does not. Thank you, Blogspot, for curbing my weaker tendencies.

(**) Here's how I will always remember Coach K and his dukies. 

2021 NCAA Final Four (the before)

(2) Houston - (1) Baylor (-4) (o/u 132.5)

Just noticed that Houston has only played double digit seeds ((15) Cleveland St, (10) Rutgers, (11) Syracuse, (12) Oregon St), feasting off the upsets that got handed to them. I like Houston, I think they're a nice team, I think on any given night they can be a really great team and maybe they have that in them. But they haven't seen anyone nearly as good as Baylor in many weeks now and I gotta think that catches up to them. Baylor is a really good team and they have the weakness of some really good teams: they got overconfident and slow down before the game is won. I can see a scenario where Houston gets hot late and steals it. But I think Baylor makes FT's and wins going away. I'll say Baylor 71-60 (Baylor and the under)

(11) UCLA - (1) Gonzaga (-13.5) (o/u 135.5)

Frankly, UCLA should've lost to Alabama and Michigan, Abilene Christian was a gift, BYU is nice but not an overly impressive win and Michigan St was as bad as they've been in years, so UCLA's run has been pretty lucky so far. Gonzaga doesn't win with luck, they win by being better at every position and every phase of the game. So...yeah, I can see UCLA putting up points to keep it from being a blowout, but I'm expecting Gonzaga to be in control throughout. I'll say Gonzaga 78-66 (UCLA and the over)

2018-19 NCAA Final Four

Texas Tech 75-69 Gonzaga

Tech plays some good D, they're sneaky good with the ball and when they're hitting 3's, they're pretty goddamn good. That said, I still thought this was Gonzaga's L more than Tech's W. Gonzaga's offense just spun in circles throughout the 2nd half after a pretty good opening. I think it was less about Tech's defense, which was fine, and more about Tech's offense being able to keep pace in a way that caught the Zags off guard. Gonzaga should've won this game, they were the better team but their offense fell off and ground to a halt right as Tech made its move. Tech moves on, but again: they caught Michigan unable to knock down shots and then Gonzaga unable to put together a consistent game, so is Tech really this good or are they just catching bad nights from superior teams? Tech certainly doesn't suck, they deserve to be here, but its still hard to tell how good they really are and if they're really capable of giving Michigan State a game. We'll see.

Purdue 75-80 (OT) Virginia

Good game! Purdue's Carsen Edwards was money all night and he alone kept Purdue's offense afloat in this game, where Virginia shot well but didn't exactly play their best defense. Back and forth action, both teams raining 3's, felt like Purdue was gonna close it out, but UVA tied it up late on a full court pass and amazing finish (wow! That pass and finish should become one of the iconic images of the tourney for years to come, especially if UVA wins it all). In OT, Purdue kinda ran out of gas and Virginia pounced on their chance. Good W for Virginia, gotta feel bad for Purdue who had this one in their grasp.

Auburn 77-71 (OT) Kentucky

As a Cats fan this one was frustrating. If UK makes their free throws, they win this game easily. Auburn was already deep in foul trouble before halftime, felt like the opportunity was there for UK to exploit that with their size down low, methodically send all of Auburn's players to the bench, make free throws and salt this game away. But instead Auburn was able to get easy shots in the lane over and over again (how? UK's size advantage was massive) and Kentucky just couldn't figure out how to counter. Auburn's MO all year long has been their 3-point shooting but that's not what won this game for them, here they were more effective at knocking down 15 footers and getting to the foul line. And even as poorly as Kentucky played, they were able to get the game into OT, where they had chances to control the action. Yeah, I know this sounds bitchy but Kentucky really should've won this game and while Auburn played really well, even that was predicated on Kentucky failing to take advantage of their size. (Still don't understand the mock drafts: how are you watching this UK team and thinking that Keldon Johnson has more upside than PJ Washington? Based on what?)

Michigan State 68-67 Duke

Fun game! Duke had been playing with fire all through this tournament to the point where you wondered whether they would eventually get burned or that they were so destined to win it all that it didn't even matter if they played shaky. It was the former. Duke had been leaving the door open and Michigan State was the one that stole it late: nailed the big shots when they had to and kept Zion away from the ball for the last few minutes and that was it. This Duke team was wildly unbalanced, that #1 recruiting class was all by themselves out there and the tourney struggles finally caught up to them. This Michigan State team is not flashy or wildly talented but they're deep and well-disciplined and PG Cassius Winston controls the ball as well as anyone I've seen in this tourney. I think they're the team to beat from here.


Final four:
Auburn - Virginia (-5.5)

Same as ever for Auburn: if they're hitting 3's, they can beat anyone; but if they're not, they can lose to anyone. That said, that game plan really only played out against North Carolina: Kansas was not at full strength and frankly Auburn handled them pretty easily and Kentucky was a familiar opponent (those division/conference teams make for anything-can-happens kinda contests) who bungled their chances to put Auburn away. But against UNC, Auburn scored, scored, scored and buried the Tar Heels in a way that could happen again to UVA. And UVA's defense does kinda allow that to happen: they dominate the top of the lane but can be beat over the top from the wings. I think Virginia has enough offense to counter Auburn's scoring and keep from getting buried. I like Virginia to play solid defense, knock down enough perimeter shots to match Auburn's attack and to hit their free throws down the stretch and pull away late. I like Virginia to win and cover.

Texas Tech - Michigan State (-3)
These are two workmanlike teams that have done what they needed to do to get this far. Tech will lock down the lane on defense, but I like State's chances to drive and kick (which Michigan couldn't do at all against this Tech squad) and to maintain their consistency in the 2nd half (which Gonzaga couldn't do either). Tech will stay close, they're savvy, they play together and I think they'll knock down enough shots to keep this one close throughout and I think they'll even have a chance to win it late. But I like Winston to keep his cool and make plays throughout that give State the upper hand. I think this one goes right down to the final play. I'll take State to win, but I like Tech to keep it close.

2018 NCAA Final Four

Loyola-Chicago - Michigan (-5)
Loyola is a surprise but they shouldn't be, they've been damn good all year long and in this tourney they've picked up quality W's over Miami, Tennessee and Nevada. Can they beat Michigan? Yeah, why not? Michigan has been solid all year and ramped up their play to take the Big 10 tourney, with impressive W's over Texas A&M and Gonzaga last week. I like Loyola to keep it going, I think they're a complete team on a mission, they're the fan favorite and you gotta love 'em as an underdog. I'll take Loyola-Chicago to win.

Kansas - Villanova (-5)
Blueblood squads but neither of them are really are bringing their best. Kansas feels like the overachiever here, they're good when they pull it together but they haven't done that all that much this year. Villanova feels like they've steadily (though only marginally) declined since winning the titles 2 years ago, but they've still got the great coach and supporting cast. I feel like Villanova wins the game whether it's close or not. So the question is will Kansas cover the spread? I'll take Nova to win but the Jayhawks to cover.