2021-22 NBA (Regular Season Awards)

MVP

Nikola Jokic (Nuggets)

Jokic has been one of my favorite players to watch since his Rook season, the way he controls the action from beginning to end is like no one I've seen since Magic. He's Westbrook except that he actually cares about winning and he's a much better playmaker. To drag this team to 6th in the West without Jamal Murray or Michael Porter Jr., and to be so damned entertaining all the while, yeah, man, he's got my vote. And when you look at the advanced stats, it is clearly Jokic #1 and Giannis #2, then you can argue over #3. Both of those dudes are so awesome and so in control of their teams and so effective, that it's hard to see anyone other Jokic or Giannis as MVP. (Shit, you know what else? I had Jokic, Giannis and Embiid way higher on my DPOY list than I would've thought, too)

1st team (2 ballhandlers, 2 big guys, 1 wild card)

Luka Doncic (Mavs), Jaysun Tatum (Celtics), Nikola Jokic (Nuggets), Giannis Antetokounpo (Bucks), Joel Embiid (Sixers)

2nd:

Trae Young (Hawks), Ja Morant (Grizzlies), Kevin Durant (Nets), Lebron James (Lakers), Karl-Anthony Towns (Wolves)

3rd:

Dejounte Murray (Spurs), Devin Booker (Suns), DeMar DeRozan (Bulls), Paskal Siakam (Raptors), Rudy Gobert (Jazz)

(Jimmy Butler (Heat), Steph Curry (Warriors), Donovan Mitchell (Jazz),  were my last three out)

Rookie of the Year

Evan Mobley (Cavs)

Holy balls, this one was such a no-brainer for the first 6 months of the season that I found myself unexpectedly discombobulated trying to pick a winner. My typical rational is this: ROY is a forward-looking award not an award based on the actual rookie season because rookies virtually never make enough of a worthwhile difference; for example: I went with Joel Embiid (Sixers) over Malcolm Brogdon (Bucks) because it was plain to me that Embiid was clearly the better prospect going forward even though Brogdon clearly had the better rookie year. 

But the way Evan Mobley (Cavs) impacted his squad on Day One was breathtaking and it just seemed to me plainly obvious that he was your ROY. But, wait, didn't you just say it was a future-looking award? What difference does Day One make? Typically, yes. But Mobley had an impact that rookies virtually never have. He took a team that I thought wouldn't have a chance at the play-in tourney and had them firmly in the top 6 for most of the season--as a ROOKIE! Mobley was the cornerstone of a play-in team as a rookie! And was, I'd say, the team's MVP throughout the season--a playoff team! So, yeah, I ditched my normal criteria of future projection because he was that good right away. And until about March 1, I didn't think twice about that rationale and just figured the ROY race was over.

But, heading into the last part of the regular season it was hard to ignore the impact Scottie Barnes (Raptors) was having on that Raptor rotation just as they were making a playoff push. But the Raptors are a better team with a better culture than the Cavs, so even though the Raptors are rising and the Cavs are fading, considering pre-season projections, the Cavs are still vastly outperforming expectations. So has Barnes been as impactful for his team as Mobley has been for his? Well, probably not, but, man, Barnes is really good, dude! And his team is peaking at the right time, so I can totally see picking Barnes over Mobley.

And, oh by the way, I wouldn't begrudge anyone voting for Cade Cunningham (Pistons) because he strikes me as possibly the best looking future prospect going forward--which is typically my rationale. Took him a little while to get going and his team is pretty awful, but, man, Cunningham is good and has room to get a lot better and--like Mobley--is already the clear MVP of his team. So while I have Cunningham 2nd on my list, I can see him getting him 1st place votes, too, because he has to do even more for his crappy team than Mobley or Barnes were expected to give their teams. And Cade, I think, still has the most upside of any of this year's class--Cade's gonna get better. 

And, oh by the way, pound for pound Franz Wagner (Magic) has put up eye-popping numbers and been his team's MVP, as well. Tough to put Wagner ahead of Barnes or Mobley but he's had a helluva rookie year and absolutely deserves admiration. 

And, oh by the way, Jonathon Kuminga (Warriors) is another one with room to get better and could possibly end up being the most dominant player of this class. His situation is utterly unique so his contribution is harder to evaluate. Barnes stepped into a functioning rotation and played like a pro right away, Mobley was the bedrock that made a (so-so) rotation into playoff-caliber, Cunningham is carrying his (crappy) rotation, Wagner is the finest contributor in his (crappy) rotation....Kuminga, then, is a piecemeal contributor to an up and down rotation (potential Champion at its best, play-in team at its worst). But Kuminga is definitely the cornerstone of the future (Warriors fan, aren't you glad they didn't trade him for, say, Caris LaVert?) and still has as much upside as anyone. 

And, oh by the way, Jalen Green (Rockets) has been putting up big numbers lately, finishing the season strong and actually developing some promising habits on a team full of rookies. 

And, oh by the way, this was a really great rookie class, man. Teams are playing these guys and relying on them: 22 rookies played over 1000 minutes and 20 rookies averaged 20mins/game (playing at least 900 minutes). I came up with 4 that were actually arguably the MVPs of their team already: Cunningham, Mobley, Green, and Wagner. 

And, oh by the way, there are a ton of rookies that didn't get much play that I'm still totally in on and others that played their way into rotations and deserve to be there: James Bouknight (Hornets), Trendon Watford (Blazers), Quinton Grimes (Knicks), JT Thor (Hornets), Austin Reaves (Lakers), BJ Boston (Clippers), Josh Primo (Spurs), Kessler Edwards (Nets), Jalen Johnson (Hawks), Moses Moody (Warriors), Dalano Banton (Raptors), Isaiah Jackson (Pacers), Tre Mann (Thunder), Usman Garuba (Rockets), Cam Thomas (Nets), Isaiah Jackson (Pacers), Keon Johnson (Blazers), Josh Christopher (Rockets), Chris Duarte--and there are more!--are all still fascinating prospects with room to grow.

I never mentioned Ayo Dosunmu (Bulls) or Herb Jones (Pelicans), who are actually kinda great! Or Bones Hyland (Nuggets), Davion Mitchel (Kings), Corey Kispert (Wizards), all of whom had good seasons. And I love Josh Giddey (Thunder)! And I'm still in on Jalen Suggs (Magic) who found himself crowded out at his position by the emergence of Cole Anthony and had his rookie thunder stolen by Wagner; but he is not a bust (though he might need to move on from Orlando). 

(Okay, I'll say it....this is the Coronavirus Class. What do we make of the fact that, for the most part, these guys didn't even really get the NCAA year they normally would've had? Remember that Duke and Kentucky, among others, both sucked last year, how does that throw off 1) the development of these players and 2) our perception of these players? The 2020 draft class didn't get their NCAA tourney, but the 2021 class played a screwed-up season, so will these two classes just be aberrations or....are changes coming?)

I'll take Evan Mobley (Cavs) for ROY because I think his contribution to his team was bigger and better this year than any other rookie even though the Cavs faded down the stretch. After that, I'll go Cade Cunnigham (Pistons), Scottie Barnes (Raptors), Jonathon Kuminga (Warriors), Franz Wagner (Magic), Herb Jones (Pelicans),  Jalen Green (Rockets), Josh Giddey (Thunder) Davion Mitchell (Kings), Ayo Dosunmo (Bulls). A great class, teams are already looking 7-8 years down the line to measure up this class's contract extensions. 

6th Man of the Year

Tyler Herro (Heat)

Top 5 in Minutes Played, FGA (44% overall, 40% from 3P), FTA (87%), Assists (with a nice, not great, asst:to) and was the overall leading scorer among 6th Man candidates. I'd say he's pretty clearly the best off the bench this season. 

2) Malik Monk (Lakers), 3) Terrence Mann (Clippers), 4) Alperen Sengun (Rockets), 5) Carmelo Anthony (Lakers)

That's right: two of my top five were from the Lakers, which is just further evidence that the problem with the Lakers was that Russell Westbrook played way too much. 

I got it down to 16 guys but then a handful kept disappointing with their numbers: Jordan Clarkson (Jazz), Buddy Hield (Kings/Pacers), Davion Mitchell (Kings), Cam Johnson (Suns), Corey Kispert (Wizards)--which is not to say these guys had bad years. Not at all, they were the 6th men of their teams and what each team needs off the bench is unique and doesn't necessarily scale well across the whole league. That said, it was easier to separate the number-getters from the non-number-getters.

But somebody is gonna steal Tyus Jones from the Grizzlies and feel pretty great about that signing (or Devin Vassell (Spurs) or Immanuel Quickley (Knicks)). And don't be surprised if someone makes the big balls move for Kevin Love (Cavs) this summer and sells hard on his 6th Man qualities at the press conference. 

Defensive Player of the Year

Nikola Jokic (Nuggets)

Yeah, man, I was as surprised as you. Jokic led the league in Rebounds (and Def Rebounds), was 8th in Steals + Blocks (9th in Steals, 20th in Blocks), was 6th in Assists (while finishing with fewer turnovers than 3 of the assist leaders ahead of him), was 8th in FGA and shot 58% (by far better than anyone else with a 1000 FGA). This guy does everything for his team. Why do you keep bringing up offensive stats? Because just as defense leads to offense, offense leads to defense and Jokic's ability to get good shots for himself and his teammates is the greatest roadblock to the other team scoring--and Jokic was among the league leaders in Steals, Blocks and Rebounds, while tying for 1st (with Karl-Anthony Town) in Minutes Played at his position and still finishing outside of the top ten (at his position) in personal fouls. Jokic moves the ball so efficiently at the offensive end and contributes at the other end...I dunno what to tell you, man, Jokic is so fucking impressive.  

I kinda thought I'd be going with Jaren Jackson (Grizzlies), who crushed the rest of the league in Blocks and Steals + Blocks, which are good stats for defense. But I went a little deeper and actually he is not a notable rebounder (fewer rebounds this year than Lebron James) and his asst:to is abysmal. So what, you ask? Well, it's incumbent on each player to turn possessions into good FGA and not turnovers and you would hope a superior defensive minded player would take that to heart. But Jackson's offense is strangely inefficient and I think that reflects weirdly on a guy that would seem to be a defensive super star.

Yeah, I get the Marcus Smart buzz, he is a great perimeter defender, but I'm not sure he's even the best defender on his team (ahem, Robert Williams has turned into a totally new guy back there). And for all the talk about there being no talk about Marcus Smart, there was even less buzz about the lack of buzz for Tyrese Haliburton (Kings/Pacers), who quietly had a helluva nice year: more Steals and Blocks than Smart, more FTA at a better %, more Off Rebounds, Def Rebounds and Total Rebounds and a superior asst:to, as well. So who was the badass perimeter defender that didn't get enough credit this year?

I worked this down to 43 candidates and of my top 20, Rudy Gobert (and Fred Van Vleet) had the least amount of games played. Normally I would be impressed at such great stats in so few games, but I can't help feeling like the night-in/night-out-ness of defense is a pretty important quality for a great defender. You gotta play more games to make your presence deeper. So while Gobert had a typically fine season, I didn't feel like he stacked up to the competition quite as well this year. 

Also, I'm getting a little tired of the much maligning of Robert Covington (Clippers), the only man to be in the top 12 in both Steals and Blocks (2nd in Steals + Blocks) and his asst:to is not bad and he shot 38% from 3. A pretty good defender that people have pretty much given up on and I don't know why. 

I don't really know how to quantify DPOY (except that I was unexpectedly blown away by Jokic). But, my gut, is Mitchell Robinson (Knicks), Robert Williams (Celtics), Herb Jones (Pelicans), Giannis Antetokounpo (Bucks), Tyrese Halliburton (Pacers), Marcus Smart (Celtics), Jaren Jackson Jr (Grizzlies), Rudy Gobert (Jazz), and Dejounte Murray (Spurs) are something like the 10 best defenders in the NBA this year. 

Coach of the Year

Monty Williams (Suns)

Yes, this is the returning Western Conference champs, anchored by a no-nonsense PG (Paul), a blistering scorer (Booker), and a fine-tuned supporting cast--what's so hard about that? To me, it was how quietly and calmly they've destroyed everyone all year long. I had my doubts about this team's success last year--I mean, they cruised through the playoffs with no Anthony Davis, Jamal Murray or Kawhi Leonard (...but, then again....none of those guys are playing this year either) and then blew a 2-0 lead in the Finals. To me last year's playoff run was proof that this team couldn't win in the post-season--and maybe they can't! Maybe they are a regular season juggernaut that crumbles in series play--but to come back and casually dominate the league was a fuckin' work of art. Coach Williams deserves a lot of the credit keeping this team from falling apart after a disastrous start of the season, brutal contract negotiations with Ayton and the owner under a cloud of investigation all season long. Other teams endured far less and still didn't come together the way the Suns have because the Suns know who they are every single day. I think that's coaching more than anything else. 

Also in the West, I thought Taylor Jenkins (Grizzlies), Mike Malone (Nuggets), Jason Kidd (Mavs) and Steve Kerr (Warriors) all had noteworthy seasons, as well. 

Ime Udoka (Celtics) 

The Celtics kinda sucked at the start of the season and it felt like it was going to be another disappointing campaign in Beantown. Then around January 1, this team fell into a defensive system that started strangling the opposition and from then on, they've been pretty amazing. I was skeptical, but, man, they crush teams. They discombobulate teams, they keep everyone off-balance, I really can't remember anything like it my NBA watching years. The NBA is typically about offense because that's where the sexy stats are, and while people give lip service to defense (it wins championships, I'm told), only dudes that can't score ever really embraced it. But this Celtics team has power at both ends and the D has unleashed the offense. The Celtics are really balling right now, they're gonna be a tough out in the playoffs and considering that the roster hasn't changed much over the years, the difference is Coach Udoka getting his guys to buy in. Great regular season, I think they'll make a deep run in the playoffs (we'll see). 

Also in the East, I thought JB Bickerstaff (Cavs), Eric Spoelstra (Heat), Nick Nurse (Raptors), and Mike Budenholzer (Bucks) had great seasons, too. 

Executive of the Year 

Bob Myers (Warriors)

I found it tougher than I thought it would be to pick a top exec in the West because most of the teams didn't really make any moves this year and in the end I decided that Warriors didn't make any moves better than everyone else. I didn't care much for the Grizzlies 2021 draft pick, I didn't care for the Suns creating havoc with Deandre Ayton and giving up on Jalen Smith (their 2020 draft pick), I didn't care for the Nuggets' one move (Bryn Forbes), and the Jazz not making big moves was probably a mistake for them. Looking around the West, I kinda like the Rockets and Thunder youth movements and the Spurs (nice supporting cast that just needs a star), but am I supposed to get excited about the Mavs giving up on Porzingis? Or the Blazers shipping out CJ McCollum (with an eye on shipping out Dame Lillard next)? Or the Kings swapping Tyrese Halliburton for Domantas Sabonis? Or the Pelicans never being able to coax Zion to come play basketball? Are we supposed to reward the Clippers and Wolves for not doing anything really stupid? (And, well, obviously the Lakers come in dead last in this metric) Do you see what I mean? The Warriors did nothing--could've traded away Wiseman or Kuminga or Moody or moved on from Wiggins--and that turned out to be the best (non) move because that team was already (sorta) set up for success. No moves was good moves (well, except for Utah). 

Chad Buchanan (Pacers)

Yeah, seems weird to go for a non-playoff team here but the Pacers got Tyrese Halliburton and Buddy Hield (trade bait for this summer) for a guy they had to trade anyway (Domantas Sabonis), so they ended up getting a cornerstone PG for a dead weight contract and that's a great move. At best, it felt like everyone else was just putting out fires: Celtics had to move on from Denis Shroeder, the Knicks had to move on from Kemba Walker, the Sixers had to move on from Ben Simmons, the Nets had to move on from James Harden, while the Hawks and Hornets struggled to win with the best rosters either of them have had in years. The Bulls made some nice moves but their inability to beat good teams is kinda disturbing (seems like the Bulls are the natural winners of this award and, yet....are they?). The Wizards stepped up to take the next gamble on Porzingis. The Heat and the Bucks did well to not do much, while the Raptors drafted well and then refrained from doing much else. The Pistons did well to steal Marvin Bagley for nothing and the Magic did well to....well, they stayed out of the Don't Say Gay controversy, so....there's that. The Cavs drafted their guy last summer and made a raft of unexpectedly weird maneuvers to navigate their injuries and they deserve some credit. But it was the Pacers that most clearly turned a bad situation into a good one and are still looking at a top-10 pick, so I'm going with the 13th best team in the East.

2020-21 NBA Awards (Rookie of the Year)

94 NBA Debuts in 2020-21. 21 played over 1000 minutes, 27 played fewer then 100 minutes. 22 averaged more than 20MPG, 9 averaged over 10PPG, 

This rookie class looks to me like a lot of mid-level talent but not a lot of obvious stars. I think this class is going play a ton of games in the future, but probably not a lot of All-Star Games. That's not bad, the world needs good basketball players the same way it needs great ones. 

My criteria: ROY, to me, is a forward-looking (as opposed to backward-looking) award. So, for example, in most of these Awards I have an obsession with Minutes Played (*); but with Rookies, I don't give a shit how many minutes they played. I care about who seems to be the most promising prospect going forward. This is pretty much pure eyeball test because I don't really care about the stats on rookies. How many of these rookies got MVP votes? (Zero) How many of these rookies single-handedly dragged their teams into the playoffs? (Zero) How many of them led the league in anything? (Zero) So...what does comparing their stats tell us? (Almost Zero) The question is who has the best chance to be a bust out superstar? This year, I thought that was a pretty easy call.

Rookie of the Year: Anthony Edwards (Wolves)

Edwards is still very raw but his potential left the Wolves feeling optimistic at the end of the season when, frankly, not much good happened (and they've probably already given away their lottery pick). His athleticism is something unseen before and if Minnesota wasn't such a gloomy organization (**), I think we'd have seen a lot more of him in the general NBA buzz. The way he gets to the rim is something to behold, man, and he's got at least 3-4 more years of getting better at that! Clearly he hasn't actually played much basketball in his life--and I think that's great! He's raw but he doesn't have bad habits! He can be trained to be something unworldly (get to work on FT%, my man, you're gonna be at the line an awful lot). Yeah, the Wolves have pretty much botched everything the last few years and picking a project at #1 was not a guarantee, but I think Edwards has amazing upside and he's my pick for ROY. 

I'll take Tyrese Halliburton (Kings) next. Yeah, yeah, I like LaMelo Ball (Hornets) as much as the next guy, he's got a lot of upside as a playmaker and just a fun watch on the court. But I've got doubts about his ability to be a consistent force, I think it's going to take him a while to settle in to being a reliable player and the way the Hornets have managed rosters over the years, I got a bad feeling he might not ever get there. And head-to-head, Halluburton is a much better shooter and has a better asst:to, though LaMelo gets to the line at a much better clip and is a better rebounder. I like both of these guys, I think they're really similar players but I think Halliburton actually has a better chance to be the better player. 

I'll take Immanual Quickly (Knicks) next. As a rook, I thought he handled himself well as a playmaker and is clearly gonna be a good scorer. (The Knicks movement for all Kentucky/Duke guys is probably not a bad idea for them) 

I'll round out my top five with Patrick Williams (Bulls) is definitely a player--again, though, probably not an all-star, just a reliable down low guy for many years to come. Probably not gonna be the biggest number hanger but he's the kinda guy other guys are gonna wanna play with.  

A few more nice rookies: RJ Hampton (Magic), Alkesej Pokusevski (Thunder), Saddiq Bey (Pistons), Precious Achiuwa (Heat). And I'm not out on James Wiseman (Warriors), I think he can still be a really good player but it might not be for Golden State (if he'd had Klay Thompson....oh, we could've gotten a real look at him). Not a bust, clearly has talent on both ends, but he's young, a bit of a project, I think he's still got a ton of upside and Steve Kerr will hopefully be the guy to get it. 

Not sure about: Cole Anthony (Magic), Malachi Flynn (Raptors), Tyrese Maxey (Sixers), Devin Vassell (Spurs), Dani Avdija (Wizards), Desmond Bane (Grizzlies).  They all had moments of looking good but then again...not. Hard to tell which is these guys will bloom, which won't, or which will need a change of scenery. Although I can proscribe a change of scenery for one player already: Obi Toppin (Knicks). I thought he looked kinda nice and there's definitely potential there, but it ain't gonna be with NYK (unless they move on from Julius Randle--which can totally happen, btw, don't underestimate the Knicks' ability to outsmart themselves). (***)

Two from my blind spot: the Cavs are in my blackout zone and I didn't watch much Rockets this year, so Isaac Okoro (Cavs) and Jae'San Tate (Rockets), nice to meet you. Nice stats, Okoro in particular really looks like a promising member of the Cavs core (moving on from Kevin Love has got to be their priority for the summer) and, well, the Rockets will likely suck at everything for the next coupla years, so Tate will probably neither add nor subtract from that going forward (which makes valuing his on-court play virtually impossible); is Tate built to dominate a crappy team or is he legit good and stuck in a soul-sucking situation? I dunno, could go either way. 

And there's a batch I'm little more muted on: Theo Maledon (Grizzlies), Payton Pritchard (Celtics), Jaden McDaniels (Wolves), Chuma Okeke (Magic), Facundo Campazzo (Nuggets), Isiah Stewart (Pistons), Killian Hayes (Pistons), Aaron Nesmith (Celtics). I can see them all becoming reliable rotation guys but I predict zero all-star appearances from this batch. 

(*) Yeah back in the day I took Joel Embiid over Malcolm Brogdon....and I really like Brogdon! But I got no regrets, Embiid looked to be the better player at the time and he has become the better player in the years since. That's what I'm talking about: these rookie stats have come and gone and made no difference to anyone, this award is about tomorrow not yesterday. 

(**) I still blame Thibs. Flip Saunders (RIP) was building something and Thibs turned it into nothing.

(***) Displacement is what brought Randle to NYK (Lebron pushed him out LA and Zion pushed him out of New Orleans) seems only fitting that he's gonna push Toppin out to find his space. 

2020-21 NBA Awards (Coach of the Year)

Okay, I'll admit it: I have no idea what an NBA coach does (*). The kind of work they really do is behind the scenes, the subtle massaging of egos and the ability to properly tear grown men a new one and make it mean something. That doesn't tend to happen on the sideline during the game or at the post-game press conference, so all I see of the coaches is the shit they don't do. Strategizing to put players in their most optimal opportunities to produce is pretty much 100% of it but I don't really know what that looks like and, of course, it's success is largely dependent on the talent that is available. So...yeah....I'm totally guessing. 

Coach of the Year: Quin Snyder (Jazz). 

The Jazz have been coming for a while now and this was their season. Utah is in that weird pocket of the country that no one pays attention to (Mountain Time Zone, what?) and features a true ensemble team that rolls ten deep and gets contributions from all over. Coach Snyder isn't relying on one guy to do it all, nor is it simply a 'team concept' that follows his orders, rather it is a group of autonomous guys, any one of whom might feel like he's the star on any given night. They play loose and they have a lot of personalities and balancing all that to finish #1 in the West is impressive. 

The rest of my top ten: Doc Rivers (Sixers), Mike Malone (Nuggets), Steve Nash (Nets), Tom Thibodeau (Knicks), Tyron Lue (Clippers), Monty Williams (Suns), (and just to make it look like a top ten) Steve Kerr (Warriors), Taylor Jenkins (Grizzlies), Nate McMillan (Hawks)

Rivers working his magic with a Sixers team that has had a slow build to immense expectations was a joy to behold this year. The Sixers could've turtled up and pretended they weren't ready for another year but Rivers kept that from happening. So he's my Eastern Conference COY.

Mike Malone (Nuggets) juggles a lot of players and makes the most them once again. Nash seems like he was handed the best roster in the game but not so fast--there's a lot of weird energy on that team and he was able to keep them in line--even when they didn't show up for long stretches of time. Thibodeau has never been a favorite of mine but I think this year's roster is precisely what he's good at: getting the most out of reclamation projects (the Knicks might just be the perfect place for him). Lue was able to guide the Clippers to a quiet, understated (which is the way to go in Clipperland) 4th place finish, leaving them well-positioned for the post-season. I like Monty Williams as much as the next guy but after digging into the stats, I'd say the Paul-Booker-Ayton trio does most of the heavy lifting, so while I don't want to diss the improvement the Suns made this season, I'm not really sure Williams is the guy to credit for that.  

The also-rans: 

So while I've seen Frank Vogel (Lakers) have impressive teams in the past, this year was mostly treading water and hanging on to the last possible rung in the ladder, which was not so impressive to behold. 

Terry Stotts (Blazers) has had interesting years in the past (and some duds), but this team is so strictly on auto-pilot right now (for better and for worse), that I'm not sure he's even there on a daily basis.

Mike Budenholzer (Bucks) has a history of getting the most out of lesser rosters, but this year's Bucks team faded from the usual spot--despite being better than they've ever been! So while I think that positions them well for the post-season (oh, I'll be coming back to this in a future post!), this regular season seemed strangely anti-climactic for the team that has been coming for a while now. 

I've long been a big fan of Erik Spoelstra (Heat), but somehow the defending eastern champs never looked right to me all season long. Yeah, there were injuries and Covid-19 and all that, but I never felt like this team knew what it was, when frankly it should. The high pressure expectations of the abstraction that is "Heat Culture" sometimes overwhelm a clear identity (when it feels like it should be the opposite, right?). 

I think Brad Stevens (Celtics) is maybe the greatest coach in the biz right now (Calipari is just keeping the sideline at Rupp warm for him), but the Celtics were barely better than the Wizards this year, not even as good as the Warriors, not nearly as good as the Blazers. Why is that? I don't blame Stevens but I think he's done so much with so little for so long that the Celtics brass thinks he can just do that every year and this year proved that isn't so. The higher expectations get, the more talent he will need to command to reach those heights. The Celtics were fine this season but they've been trending up and that trend didn't hold. 

(*) OMG and European soccer coaches...I don't even know why teams have those...

2020-21 NBA Awards (MVP)

My awards criteria. 1) Player must be in the top 100 in either Minutes Played or Games Played. This gives a pool of 150 players. (Notable players left behind: Lebron James, Joel Embiid, Karl-Anthony Towns, James Harden, Nikola Vucevic, CJ McCollum, Jamal Murray, Kevin Durant, Caris LaVert, Gordon Hayward, Christian Wood, Kelly Oubre, Kristaps Porzingis, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Anthony Davis, Marcus Smart, Aaron Gordon, etc.) 

2) Players must be in the top 20 in either FGA, 3FGA, 2FGA, FTA, Total Rebounds, Assists, Steals, Blocks, or Points. (Notable players left behind: Kawhi Leonard, Paul George (*), Malcolm Brogdon, Micheal Porter Jr., Dillon Brooks, Darius Garland, Harrison Barnes, Denis Shroder, etc.)

3) This leaves a pool of 81 players. I more or less discarded at least one player per team to create an MVP for each team. (Notable players left behind: Kevin Huerter, Jaylen Brown, Joe Harris, PJ Washington, Andrew Wiggins, Tim Hardaway Jr, Ja Morant, Duncan Robinson, Khris Middleton, Jrue Holiday, Lonzo Ball and Brandon Ingram, RJ Barrett, Enes Kanter, Pascal Siakim, Russell Westbrook, etc.)

4) From the pool of team MVP's, surely we can find the league MVP. 

Trae Young (Hawks), Jaysun Tatum (Celtics), Kyrie Irving (Nets), Zach LaVine (Bulls), Terry Rozier (Hornets), Collin Sexton (Cavs), Luka Doncic (Mavs), Nikola Jokic (Nuggets), Jerami Grant (Pistons), Steph Curry (Warriors), Domantas Sabonis (Pacers), Ivaca Zubac (Clipper), Jonas Valenciunas (Grizzlies), Giannis Antetokounpo (Bucks), Anthony Edwards (Wolves), Zion Williamson (Pelicans), Julius Randle (Knicks), Damian Lillard (Blazers), De'Aron Fox (Kings), Fred Van Vleet (Raptors), Rudy Gobert (Jazz), Bradley Beal (Wizards). Lakers, Magic, Rockets, Thunder had no MVP candidate and I couldn't decide on Heat, Sixers, Suns and Spurs. (**)

So....who's the MVP? Well there are some limitations to the above methodology. The Sixers MVP is Joel Embiid, not Simmons or Harris; likewise, the Wolves MVP is Karl-Anthony Towns, not the rookie PG. I'm not sure who the Clipper MVP is but I'm certain it's not Ivaca Zubac. The Laker MVP is....not nobody. I can live with no candidates from Thunder, Rockets and Magic because these three organizations did virtually nothing to win games. But to miss on playoff teams like the Sixers, Clippers and Lakers is clearly awkward. (***)

Okay here's the case for Embiid (though he didn't play enough for my liking): top 15 in Points scored, top 18 in True Shooting Percentage (only Curry, Jokic and Zion scored more Points), #2 in FTA (on 86% shooting), #2 in PER (behind only Jokic), #2 in Usage (behind only Luka), #15 in Total Rebounds, #33 in Steals + Blocks, and was the clear MVP of a #1 seed. Also, he's a fun watch and has even toned down the pointless quick 3's he used to indulge in. 

I didn't find anyone else to add back into consideration. (****)

MVP: Nikola Jokic (Nuggets) #1 in PER (31.3), #3 in Points, #6 in Minutes Played, #14 in FTA (87% shooter), #3 in Assists (#5 in Turnovers, though the asst:to is still pretty great), #5 in Total Rebounds, #15 in Steals + Blocks, #15 in True Shooting % (only Curry outscored him) and was the clear MVP of a #2 seed. Nice work. He's been the man all year long. 

The rest of my top ten: Steph Curry (Warriors), Joel Embiid (Sixers), Giannis Antetokounpo (Bucks), Julius Randle (Knicks), Kyrie Irving (Nets)(*****), Luka Doncic (Mavs), Zion Williamson (Pelicans), Damien Lillard (Blazers), Rudy Gobert (Jazz)

(*) Did you realize that for the 2020-21 NBA season, Paul George finished in the top 20 of only one counting stat: Turnovers. 

(**) Couldn't decide: 

(Heat) Bam Adebayo v Jimmy Butler. Adebayo scored more points on more attempts and was in the top 20 in Rebounds (Off, Def and Total) and FTA while playing more minutes in more games; Butler's asst:to ratio is pretty phenomenal and his 2FG% and FT% are excellent; both are top quality in Steals and Blocks with Adebayo having the slight edge on Butler. But Adebayo is turnover prone, while Butler is really bad 3-pt shooter. My gut is to take Adebayo's overall contribution but Butler's presence is clearly commanding and decisive. Hard to choose. 

(Sixers) Ben Simmons v Tobias Harris. The Good: Simmons is a good assist man and a great defender; Harris is a good shooter from all over the floor, way more of a scorer than Simmons and he also out rebounded Simmons this season. The Bad: Simmons is a terrible FT shooter (and ought to get to the line a lot more anyway), he's clearly reluctant to shoot and a bit turnover prone; Harris is a solid player on both ends but nothing superlative compared to his peers. (Yeah: the problem here is that neither of these guys is the Sixer MVP this season, but here I'm leaning toward Harris, I think he actually contributes more all around than Simmons)

(Suns) Devin Booker v Chris Paul v Deandre Ayton. Booker is the better scorer (top 20 in 2FGA and FTA, good percentage on both), though he is turnover prone and an overrated 3-pt shooter. Paul (as always) sports a legendary asst:to, his Steals plus Blocks is high level and his scoring is still reliable. Ayton is killing on Rebounds and Blocks, shoots a good percentage and doesn't seem foul prone. The three all played similar minutes in similar games. Booker is the filler upper, Paul is the brains of the operation, but Ayton deserves his share of the credit for being a dependable defensive bedrock (the poor man's Gobert but much better on offense). This team is more a 3-headed monster than most folks notice and picking their MVP is tougher than I would've thought. 

(Spurs) Dejounte Murray v DeMar DeRozan. Murray is among the league leaders in Assists, Steals and Defensive Rebounds but is not a particularly good 3-pt shooter and feels like he should be getting more Free Throws. DeRozan is still a good scorer inside the 3-pt line and outpaces Murray by a large margin on FTA and Assists. (Both sport very impressive asst:to) Murray played more minutes in more games but scored far fewer points and while he doesn't do anything badly, his production still lags DeRozan. Similar to Adebayo and Butler, both of these guys perform their tasks well enough that it's hard to see who is actually more valuable.  

(***) Also, Nikola Vucevic (Bulls/Magic) had a really good season but no one noticed because it was split between two teams that did nothing this season. Too bad, he's not gonna get any MVP votes this year when he deserves to at least be in the conversation: #3 in Total Rebounds, #11 in Points, #18 in PER, #23 in Usage, #22 in True Shooting %, all while surrounded by non-playoff rosters. Almost certainly the most underappreciated player in the league right now. Bonus: I think this was the sneaky best transaction of the season: we obsess over the worst contract in basketball, but I would submit that Vucevic over the next 3 years is arguably the best contract in the league and the Bulls made a brilliant move snapping him up. 

(****) Lebron, I hear you say. Lebron only played 44 games and, of course, he was Lebron. But his team finished 7th and needs a real coming together to look dangerous in the playoffs. So what exactly am I supposed to be putting on my all-NBA team? This guy? Why? Yeah, even upon deeper consideration I can't put Lebron wildly ahead of Jonas Valenciunas--yes, I realize Lebron is a better player but in this particular season his performance was not all that noteworthy. He's not getting on my MVP ballot and I don't see how he had a top 15 season this year, so inclusion on all-NBA team is just some kind of hero worship. 

Karl-Anthony Towns has nice stats, he's a nice player. Good shooting percentage at all levels, reliable rebounder, decent defender, decent playmaker, I like his game. But this is Anthony Edwards' team now, you realize that, right? Edwards is still raw but he's enormously promising--don't be shocked if he turns into Giannis....yeah, I said that--and Towns (and Beasley and Russell and this year's draft pick) needs to get himself oriented to the new paradigm. So does Towns deserve to be on my MVP ballot? Nope, not this year. I like him, like his game, think Minnesota is strangely promising, but nothing Towns did this season puts him ahead of Nikola Vucevic on my ballot. 

(*****) Kyrie Irving finished in the top 20 in Points without finishing in the top 20 in FGA, 3FGA, 2FGA or FTA. Uh....that doesn't even seem possible... 

(******) Next year's MVP candidates to keep an eye on: De'Aaron Fox (Kings), Bam Adebayo (Heat), Dejounte Murray (Spurs), Domantas Sabonis (Pacers), Nikola Vucevic (Bulls), Jaysun Tatum (Celtics)

2020-21 NBA Playoffs

End of the NBA season (*), time for pointless predictions. 

I'll take the Pacers over the Hornets and Wizards over Celtics tonight. Then I'm thinking Celtics over Pacers.

I'll take Grizzlies over Spurs and Lakers over Warriors tomorrow night. Then I'm thinking Warriors over Grizzlies.

I'll do the full playoff predictions by the end of the week. Getting pretty excited for the playoffs!

(*) I've been scouring the season stats for the last few days and I'm not quite ready but I'd be pretty surprised if I ended up with something other than: MVP: Nikola Jokic (Nuggets), DPOY: Rudy Gobert (Jazz); 6th Man: Jordan Clarkson (Jazz); COY: Quin Snyder (Jazz), GMOY: Sean Marks (Nets); still kicking around ROY (think I'm leaning toward Tyrese Hallburton (Kings) but not sure yet).

2018-19 NBA Awards (and Pre-Season Predictions)

MVP
Giannis Antetokounmpo (Bucks)
My pre-season pick for the MVP was Anthony Davis (Pelicans), jeez what a wasted year from such a great player. (*) But Giannis was in my list of guys ready for a bust-out season--oh man, he busted out! Down to the wire I was inclined to go with James Harden (Rockets) because he carried his team for stretches of the season in a way that Giannis didn't have to (though there's something to be said for the fact that Giannis allows his teammates the room to be their best whereas for Harden teammates are cinder blocks to be dragged along). But in the end I went with Giannis because I thought he had great defensive season, as well (see below), and because his team ended up with the best record in the league and because--I'll say it--he's just a lot more fun to watch than Harden.

That said, Harden had another great year carrying the Rockets through injuries, just missing out on the #2 seed in the West, and flat out dominating the league for weeks at a time. Harden is putting his stamp on Player of the Decade, wouldn't you say? I've had him in my top three for MVP for at least 5 straight years and I fully expect him to be there next year, don't you?

2nd: James Harden (Rockets), 3rd: Steph Curry (Warriors), 4th: Damian Lillard (Blazers), 5th: Nikola Jokic (Nuggets)


DPOY
Giannis Antetonkounmpo (Bucks)
From the perimeter to the rim, he was the best defender in the league by far this season. He's got the reach and the foot speed to hang with the best outside shooters and the size and the hops to bang with the big guys down low. And he's got the skills and smarts to start the break (that is, turning defense into offense). There's nothing that guy can't do on the court--and he's still getting better.

That said: I firmly believe Andre Drummond (Pistons) is now the most underrated player in the league. League leader in offensive and defensive rebounds, top five in steals and blocks (league leader in those stats combined) and among the league leaders in 2-point attempts and free throw attempts (thought admittedly he's a godawful free throw shooter). Yet, I hardly hear him mentioned in the pundits' all-defense teams. He's busting his ass out there for a team that no longer appreciates him and I think it's a damn shame that the even the chattering classes don't seem to notice.

All-defense:
1st team: G: Marcus Smart (Celtics), Klay Thompson (Warriors); F: Giannis Antetokounmpo (Bucks), Paul George (Thunder); C: Andre Drummond (Pistons)

2nd team: G: Eric Bledsoe (Bucks), Russell Westbrook (Thunder); F: Ben Simmons (Sixers), Jerami Grant (Thunder); C: Rudy Gobert (Jazz)


Rookie
Luka Doncic (Mavs)
He was my pre-season pick and he was great from beginning to end. Trae Young (Hawks) had a great second half after starting kinda slow and was so much better than I thought he'd be. But I gotta stick with Luka, so much upside, so much potential dominance and still so young. He controls the game as a rookie and that's impressive, not unlike Ben Simmons (Sixers) last year but with better ability to score. Next year when Porzingis comes in and the roster gets overhauled, the Mavs could be primed for a big jump right away and the optimism is first and foremost because of Luka.

Digging into the numbers I found myself more impressed with Deandre Ayton (Suns) and Collin Sexton (Cavs) than I expected to be and even more impressed with Landry Shamet (Clippers) than I already was. Another good batch of rookies this year--and we didn't even get to see much of Harry Giles (Kings), Omari Spellman (Hawks), Mo Bamba (Magic) or Zhaire Smith (Sixers) and what we saw of Kevin Knox (Knicks) and Wendell Carter (Bulls) was not as good as it should've been, I still think those guys are gonna be really good.

2nd: Trae Young (Hawks), 3rd: Marvin Bagley (Kings), 4th: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Clippers); 5th: Mitchell Robinson (Knicks). And I really liked Jaren Jackson (Grizzlies), Deandre Ayton (Suns), Landry Shamet (Sixers/Clippers), Jalen Brunson (Mavs), Collin Sexton (Cavs), Kevin Huerter (Hawks), Miles Bridges (Hornets), Alonzo Trier (Knicks), and Rodions Kurucs (Nets). Another strong rookie class.


6th Man
Lou Williams (Clippers)
How soon before we just re-name this the Lou Williams Award? In today's NBA dudes don't want to come off the bench, they'd rather get fewer minutes overall and less time at the end of the game as long as they're there at the start. Weird. Lou, on the other hand, sees the benefit of letting the game develop before he steps on the court. For all bench players he led (by a mile!) in points and free throw attempts and sports a gaudy asst:to ratio. Really his only competition is his teammate Montrezl Harrel (Clippers), who has a huge number of FTA while leading bench players in rebounds, too--but in Harrel's case it makes you wonder why he doesn't start more?

When digging into the numbers (players who started fewer than half of their games played), the ones that most jumped out at me were Monte Morris (Nuggets) with a killer asst:to, among the leaders in points, steals, minutes played, shot 49% from the field, 41% from 3--dang! That's pretty good. Also Dmontas Sabonis (Pacers), Terrence Ross (Magic) and the ageless Derrick Rose (Wolves) had pretty good seasons off the bench, too.

My pre-season pick was Isaiah Thomas (Nuggets) with the thinking that he could be a real spark off the bench for them but that never came to fruition. Instead it was Morris and Malik Beasley who formed the core of the Nuggets 2nd string, while Thomas never quite fit in.


Most Improved
Paksal Siakam (Raptors)
Siakam went from being a nice role player to a potential star at both ends of the court, upping his usage and efficiency simultaneously--that doesn't happen much in this world. It's not uncommon to see a fine young player getting 10 MPG and thinking he'd be so much better at 20 MPG but then he's not because diminishing returns sets in and while he gets better in the first five minutes, he actually becomes a detriment in the last five minutes. That is precisely the scenario that Siakam avoided this year, going from a role player in the 2nd unit to becoming a more important role player with the starters and busting out in every statistical category (and in the all-important eye test). He's comfortable in a variety of defensive roles and more proficient with the ball and in transition that I would've even thought possible. I knew he was good, didn't know he was this good, Siakam is a vital part of one of the 4-5 best teams in the league and no one saw that coming.

I was gonna throw the curve ball and go with Giannis (Bucks) here because he was my MVP and DPOY (**), which is an amazing jump by any reckoning. But looking back to last season, he was in my top five for both of those awards and I expected him to make a leap this year, so I can't really say this was out of the blue, especially since he was also joined by my Coach of the Year (see below). Last year I forgot to menion Spencie Dinwiddie (Nets) and this year I almost forgot to mention D'Angelo Russell (Nets), who clearly took a step forward, finally coming into his own as a team leader (though there were still stretches when he was not in the game at crunch time). I was kinda impressed with Danilo Gallinari (Clippers) this year, he's coming off an injury so his numbers were inflated but go back to the previous year and this year was much better and that's a bit of an anomaly at his age (and his injury-prone-ness). I've always loved Nikola Vucevic (Magic) but he, too, had a nicer than usual season this year.

There was more discussion than I've ever previously heard among the talking heads about whether it was okay to use 2nd year players in this category and while I understand the logic (rookie to sophomore is usually the biggest single year jump in any career), I think contributing to a good team is even more important. Hanging better numbers on a team that goes nowhere doesn't seem like that big of a deal to me, so I think this award is more team-dependent (as opposed to career-dependent) than I would've thought. (Kinda feels like Gordon Hayward (Celtics) is lining up to win this next year, right?)


Coach
Mike Budenholzer (Bucks)
Just to keep the Bucks feeling going, its worth noting that Coach Bud has a lot to do with Giannis going from good to great and the Bucks going from scrappy underdogs to faves in the East. He knew what he had with Malcolm Brogdon and Khris Middleton and used them as the pillars of an architecture to maximize Giannis, get more out of Eric Bledsoe and Brook Lopez than anyone ever had before and even lure strong contributions from guys like DJ Wilson, Sterling Brown, Pat Connaughton and Donte Divincenzo. Starting with Giannis is every coach's dream but to get the most out of everyone else is how run up the tables and Coach Bud pulled it off.

There were a lot of good candidates this year: Steve Clifford (Magic) looked like another boring retread when hired last summer but he turned the lowly Magic into a defensive juggernaut and a playoff team--and no one saw that coming! Mike Malone (Nuggets) had another fine leap and has gone from being underrated to really really underrated. Doc Rivers (Clippers) withstood a major roster overhaul and came out better than before with a cleaner cap going into the summer, I didn't know Doc had it in him but he had a really good season. Dave Joerger (Kings) did a lot with his ragtag batch of youth and got fired for his efforts (he must be a total dick in real life, right, why else does he keep getting fired despite the good job he keeps doing?).Nick Nurse (Raptors) inherited a good roster but he also inherited many seasons of disappointment, too, and rolled with some major changes to the roster to a chance at a nice run deep into the post-season. Dwayne Casey (Pistons) had a nice season after getting fired for a Coach of the Year-like performance just a year ago, really made the most of a lumpy and weird Pistons roster.


Executive
Jon Horst (Bucks)/Micheal Winger (Clippers)
I sometimes choose a winner for each conference and since I couldn't choose between my top two here, I'll default to taking them both. The Bucks hired the right coach, pulled Brook Lopez off the scrap heap, re-signed Eric Bledsoe to a very reasonable deal, and made mid-season deals for George Hill, Nikola Mirotic and Pau Gasol (none of them were home runs, but none of them were strikeouts, either) and cruised to the best record in the league. That's a pretty good season and alongside MVP, DPOY and Coach of the Year, this is a fitting accolade.

The Clippers tried to re-sign Tobias Harris last summer, got dissed and then pulled the trigger on a series of sprawling, but ultimately very rewarding trades that netted them Landry Shamet, Ivaca Zubac, JaMychel Green, two 1st round picks and two 2nd round picks for a batch of guys that weren't going to re-sign anyway (Wesley Johnson, Tobias Harris, Boban Marjonovic, Micheal Beasley, Alexis Ajinca, Mike Scott, Milos Teodosic, Marcin Gortat, Avery Bradley). They also got an excellent rookie season out of PG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, still made the playoffs despite all the changes, cleaned up their books heading into a turbulent summer and--best of all--stuck the dreaded Lakers in the eye! And the season ends on a really optimistic note going forward after a lot of upheavals in the previous coupla years. Man, that was pretty god damn good year for the Clippers!

Other GMs that had excellent seasons: Masai Ujiri (Raptors) fired last year's Coach of the Year and traded away some beloved fan favorites in rather cold-blooded fashion but the moves seem to have worked out and the Raptors are finally poised to make a deep run in the Lebron-less playoffs. Elton Brand (Sixers) remolded the Sixers bench in bold fashion and even though it hasn't made much difference, I do think the moves were worth making. Travis Schlenk (Hawks) drafted well, emptied his roster to make room for the future and hired a solid coach to guide the youth movement; this could've been disastrous and instead the Hawks had a pretty good year and are set going forward.

Oh man, my pre-season pick for this was Rob Pelinka (Lakers), solely because he signed Lebron...but...uh...man, not much else went right for the Lakers this year. The summer signings were all weird and overhyped, the season did not get off particularly well, the attempted trade for Anthony Davis was a full-on disaster, dumping Ivaca Zubac is the most laughable move of recent memory, the youthful core of the roster is in full revolt mode, they were racked by injuries late, Magic's self-immolation just highlighted how dysfunctional and delusional the entire organization is and they capped the season by firing Luke Walton, who everyone still thinks is the next great coach. WTF, dude? Oh and supposedly everyone hates Pelinka. So outside of getting Lebron (which is playing out more curse than blessing), everything he's done has gone horribly wrong, the team does not look any better prepared for the future and everyone hates him--Stephen King couldn't have written a scarier story! Wow, that is a superlative season but not the kind that wins awards.


(*) When going over MVP finalists I came up with a preliminary list of 158 players. Anthony Davis was not one of them. What the fuck, dude? Didn't even crack my top 158 despite going relatively injury-free this year? I had Zach LaVine comfortably ahead of Anthony Davis!?! How is that possible? This will be remembered as the year Davis showed that he doesn't really get how the NBA works, embroiling himself in trade shenanigans that killed his own team and the team he wanted to go (Lakers), wasted a year of his prime and took him from king of New Orleans to persona non grata in his own town. What a god damn shame. I can't say the Pelicans have done much right since they drafted Davis, but they've tried to do right and, frankly, not acquiescing to his demands was the right thing to do in this situation. I'm not sure where Davis goes from here but if he goes into next year with a bad vibe, it could be two wasted seasons and that's just heartbreaking to think about.

(**) Can I make a weird comparison? At this year's Oscars, Alfonso Cuaron won Best Director and Best Cinematography, which I'd liken to winning MVP and DPOY in the same season. Beware though: Cuaron did not win Best Picture, which could be an analogue for Giannis not winning the Championship, no?

2017-18 NBA (Awards and pre-season predictions)

MVP
Lebron James (Cavs). In 2015 and 2017 I thought the MVP should've been James Harden because he is the most efficient scoring machine the league has seen in ages. That guy either makes the pass, gets his shot or gets fouled--if you don't foul him, he's just gonna beat you. I'm not a huge fan of his game (I've warmed to him some, used to find him incredibly boring to watch) but he's successful and I think controls a game as well as anyone over the last few years. This year he seems very likely to finally get his much-deserved MVP after guiding the Rockets to the best record in the league.

That said...my pre-season pick for MVP was Lebron James and I'll stick with that. Lebron played all 82 games for a rag-tag team that entered the season after trading away its 2nd best player (for a...bag of magic beans), endured injuries to most of the rest of the supporting cast, had a major upheaval at the trade deadline and even lost their coach for a stretch in March. Meanwhile, Lebron had one of the finest years of his career and held the team together, readying them for a run through the struggling Eastern Conference. In raw numbers, Lebron was one of only three players in the top 20 in Rebounds, Assists and Steals, led the league in Minutes Played, 2nd in the league in FGA (shooting at 54%) and compared to Harden had more Assists, Blocks and and fewer Personal Fouls (oh, and check out my Defensive Player of the Year blurb down below). In short, he played a fuller, more complete season than Harden on a much shakier team. Harden had the better team record but then again Harden had the better team (adding Chris Paul while Lebron lost Kyrie Irving). Yes, we're in a stretch when frankly Lebron and Harden both deserve the MVP pretty much every year. But this year I'd take Lebron James. 2nd: James Harden, 3rd: Anthony Davis (Pelicans), 4th: Giannis Antetokounpo (Bucks), 5th: Damien Lillard (Blazers)/Donovan Mitchell (Jazz).


Defensive Player of the Year
Anthony Davis (Pelicans). Led the league in Blocks (by a laaaaaaarge margin!), led the league in Steals + Blocks (only player with over 300), 6th overall in Defensive Rebounds (5th overall in Total Rebounds), 3rd overall in FTA (shot 83%), had a solid Asst:TO rate and was not near the league leaders in Personal Fouls. Played a high level all year long on both ends of the court. 

My pre-season pick was Kawhi Leonard (Spurs), of whom I wrote: "I think Kawhi will have a big year, I'll take him for DPOY". Yeah, uh, wrong on that one. But I also wrote: "Wouldn't be surprised to see (Anthony) Davis become more of a defense-first guy" in mentioning him as a possible DPOY pick. Oddly, of the others I mentioned in my pre-season blurb, only Drummond and Antetokounpo were worthy of mention. I thought the other usual suspects all kinda fell to the side this year: Rudy Gobert (Jazz) played too few games, Deandre Jordan (Clippers) had nice numbers but nothing superlative, Draymond Green (Warriors) was off the leaderboard in most of the crucial stats, Hassan Whiteside (Heat) seemed to complain more than play this year. I think Gobert will win but, I dunno man, he didn't play enough. Davis carried his team, I'd reward him first.

1st team all-defense: G: Ben Simmons (Sixers), Victor Oladipo (Pacers), F: Lebron James (Cavs), Anthony Davis (Pelicans), C: Andre Drummond (Pistons)

2nd team all-defense: G: Jrue Holiday (Pelicans), Josh Richardson (Heat), F: Paul George (Thunder), Giannis Antetokounpo (Bucks), C: Joel Embiid (Sixers)


Rookie of the Year
Ben Simmons (Sixers). Its easy to say it was a two-man race this year but...no...it was Ben Simmons all the way. He led all rookies in Minutes Played, Free Throw Attempts, Rebounds, Assists, Steals, and was top 4 in Blocks and Field Goal Attempts. No one else even comes close. Let me state for the record that, for me, the ROY is a forward-looking rather than backward-looking award, meaning that I think the award is not who had the best rookie season (which was Simmons, incidentally) but who showed the most promise for future badassness. Considering that Simmons is already better than the rest of his class--and he can't shoot worth a shit!--I'm convinced that he still has great room for improvement (indeed, as great as this kid was this year, he deserves to be publicly flogged for his truly abysmal free throw shooting, Coach Brown needs to convince him that he's hurting his team by being so awful at so basic a feature of the game). And leading the hapless-for-as-long-as-anyone-can-remember Sixers to 3rd place in the East is a staggering achievement. Honestly, even considering anyone else would make you look foolish in front of your children.

But for those that want to reach for Donovan Mitchell (Jazz) instead, let me say: 1) No, Simmons was better; 2) Yes, Simmons is a rookie (not even sure what that line of thinking was meant to yield); 3) considering that I see this award as forward-looking, I'd be more inclined to put Mitchell lower on my list rather than higher. In ranking the rookies this year I came up with a clear top 9 (and then a tie for 10th):

1) Simmons (Sixers), 2) Mitchell (Jazz), 3) Jayson Tatum (Celtics) (really impressed with his effort, his demeanor, his skills and his chances to get even better), 4) Lauri Markkanen (Bulls) (I waaaaaay underestimated this kid, good skills all over the court, good head on his shoulders, important leader on a bad Bulls team), 5) Kyle Kuzma (Lakers) (dang, that kid can score, gonna get better too), 6) Bogdan Bogdanovic (Kings) (I loved this kid's feel for the game, I kinda think if he was swapped with Tatum on the Celtics this year, there wouldn't have been much difference), 7) Dennis Smith (Mavs) (yeah, his defense is kinda terrible, he shot too much, he tried to do too much, but he was all alone on that team but he can put on a show and I think he's got room to greatly improve his efficiency and leadership), 8) Dillon Brooks (Grizzlies) (must admit: I didn't watch the Grizzlies once this year, my take on him is completely based on his stats, which were solid but I gotta give him an Incomplete on the eye test), 9) John Collins (Hawks) (man his team was terrible but he showed flashes of a young Dwight Howard, great rebounder, good shot blocker, decent offensive game, I think he's gonna be good). And at 10th I had a toss up of: De'Aaron Fox (Kings) (had moments this year which suggest he could be a real crafty PG), Josh Jackson (Suns) (I thought he was the best pure athlete in last year's draft and he kinda showed that, just needs to learn to shoot better and he'll be all right), Lonzo Ball (Lakers) (went from overrated to underrated and back again a few times this year, the hype that surrounded him led to unrealistic expectations and a poor sense of evaluation, but in the end I think he's gonna be pretty good and a Laker for a long time), Frank Nkilitina (Knicks) (not great season but tantalizing to be sure, he looks like a defensive wizard, could turn into a version of Donovan Mitchell which the Knicks sorely need).

Let me return to my Mitchell screed above: as good as Mitchell was I think he's much closer to reaching his full potential than anyone else in my top nine and he's on a more complete team than any of those other guys, too. So not only was Mitchel not the best this past year, I'm not completely convinced he'll even be in the top ten of this class when all is said and done. Dang! Kinda seems like I hate Donovan Mitchell, don't I? Not at all, I love his game actually, I just think the hype in his direction isn't nearly as deserved as it seems. Mitchell had a great rookie year and he was as important to his new team as any rookie (well, any rookie not named Simmons). But I think the Donovan Mitchell we've already seen is the Donovan Mitchell we're going to get. And the Utah Jazz may well have peaked in this incarnation--indeed, it was the unexpected contribution of Mitchell that made this Jazz team as good as they were--so are we sure that Mitchell will get better? Or that the Jazz will get better? No and no. I'm inclined to think that Tatum has room to get better on a team that will play for championships, I think Markkanen and Collins have the potential to carry even heavier loads going forward, Smith could still turn into a super star and Kuzma and Bogdanovic have great room to get better as their teams get better (ditto with Fox and Ball and Nkilitina). So in that sense, rather than putting Mitchell ahead of Simmons, I'm more inclined to put him behind everyone else. (Yeah....I said it)

I mentioned most of these guys in my pre-season blurb, where I took Simmons as the winner. I also mentioned Jonathon Isaac (Magic) who was hurt for much of the season and Malik Monk (Hornets) who was a serious disappointment. But I failed to mention Markkanen, Brooks and Collins, who were all much better than I anticipated. Pretty good rookie class considering I never even mentioned Jarret Allen (Nets) or Bam Adebayo (Heat), who both had fine rookie campaigns.


6th Man of the Year
Lou Williams (Clippers). Wow....just wow. No idea Lou still had it in him but he was as money off the bench as anyone in this league. Got himself a long term contract out of it, too. I didn't see it coming but, frankly, he's the obvious choice. I'd have to say Will Barton (Nuggets), Kyle Kuzma (Lakers), Bobby Portis (Bulls), Eric Gordon (Rockets) and Marco Belinelli (Hawks/Sixers) are the only others even worth mentioning and none of them merit consideration ahead of Williams.

My pre-season pick was Marcus Smart (Celtics), with suggestions to keep an eye on Terry Rozier (Celtics) and Donovan Mitchell (Jazz). Smart was in and out of the lineup all year long and did not put up particularly notable numbers. But in my defense let me suggest that Smart is the ultimate 'eye test' player: he doesn't put up big numbers and isn't a very good shooter but when you watch the Celtics they certainly look better when he's in there. (PJ Tucker (Rockets) has a similar effect: the box score doesn't show much but your eyes will see the difference he makes) Curious to see what the Celtics do with Smart this off-season; surely they'll let him go but, man, I think they'll miss him if he's not there next year.


Most Improved
Victor Oladipo (Pacers). This one is an easy call. Trading Oladipo for Paul George seemed like the steal of the century at the time, but that apparently inspired Oladipo to remake his game (and his body!) and after a few intriguing but frustrating years in the league, he finally had the bust-out season that he looked capable of when he came out of Indiana back in the day.

I didn't research this category much and I didn't do a pre-season pick for this but I'd also suggest another ex-Russell Westbrook teammate: Taj Gibson (Wolves). Yeah, Taj probably played too much but he does a lot for that team and still has more left in the tank than I would've thought.


Coach of the Year
Dwayne Casey (Raptors). Last year the Raptors played well and remolded their roster to finally go toe-to-toe with their hated rivals, the Cavs. The result: the Cavs whipped them in 4--and none of the games were close! It was as severe a thrashing as I can recall: the Raptors rolled in with maximum swagger and firepower and got treated like an extra in a Scorsese film. The salary cap was maxed in a way that allowed for no movement last summer, too, since the team that got rolled had no choice but to run out the same zombies chasing the same ghosts. And yet, Coach Casey managed to get his team to a whole new level with just the right mix of strategy and encouragement and a deft handling of the best bench in the league. I was never terribly impressed with Casey but this year I thought he elevated his game and brought his team to a whole new level and though there are a lot of good choices this year, I really that Casey had the single biggest impact on his team's success. (Now...what happens when Lebron comes to town this year...?)

This is a tough category because there were a lot of coaches that really had great years. I suspect Brad Stevens (Celtics) will win, but Quin Snyder (Jazz) will get a lot of love, as will Nate MacMillan (Pacers) and Brett Brown (Sixers) and Terry Stotts (Blazers). Of course, Mike D'antoni (Rockets) had the best record and though perennial favorite Gregg Popovich (Spurs) had his worst season in as long as anyone can remember, he may actually have been more impressive this year than ever before.

My pre-season picks were Steve Clifford (Hornets) and Mike Malone (Nuggets) on the thinking that their teams could make big moves. In the case of the Hornets...I dunno, I just had this weird premonition that the Dwight Howard thing was gonna work (I know, right?) and that Clifford would look like a genius. Didn't happen, in fact Coach Cliff got fired today (hey, better than hanging around Dwight Howard for another year). As for the Nuggets, they had moments of up and moments of down and one could argue they did make the playoffs: their 82nd game was a win-and-in contest that didn't fall their way. But though the Nuggets have pieces and a great home court advantage, expecting them to go deep in the Western Conference was a bit of a chimera on my part. I certainly don't think Malone will get any Coach of the Year votes but I don't expect him to get fired either.


Executive of the Year
Daryl Morey (Rockets) (with Danny Ainge (Celtics) a very close 2nd). Bringing in Chris Paul was a masterstroke and he's the one that did--and getting it done required a million little moves that are long since forgotten. But it was the move that elevated his star to MVP-level and his team to the best record in the league. Kudos, gotta give up to the best.

I figured this award would be a race between Danny Ainge (Celtics) and Sam Presti (Thunder), though I gave Ainge the edge because he was fielding a top notch squad entirely of his own making whereas Presti made (I thought) one trade too many. Speaking of, doesn't Kevin Pritchard (Pacers) have to get some votes here? 4 of their 6 top scorers weren't on the roster the year before and swapping Paul George for Victor Oladipo didn't seem like a great move at the time but it sure made the Pacers a better team. I was impressed by Koby Altman's (Cavs) moves at the trade deadline and with Neil Olshey (Blazers) not making any panic moves (sometimes you've got to trust what you've put togeter).

2017-18 NBA Awards Watch (Week 4)

ROY
Up to 72 debuts in the NBA this year. 3 more this week: Matt Csotello (Spurs), CJ Williams (Clippers), Furkan Korkmaz (Sixers).

Only 1 rookie currently above 30MPG, 15PPG, 9RPG, 7APG, 70 total FTA, 20 total Steals: Ben Simmons (Sixers). (One suggestion: Ben, work on your FT shooting, it's good for developing your jumper and it's where a lot of your points are going to come. You're not fulfilling your full awesomeness til you start knocking down some gimmes)

Lauri Markkanen (Bulls), Dennis Smith (Mavs), Lonzo Ball (Lakers), Jaysun Tatum (Celtics), Donovan Mitchell (Jazz) are having fine seasons and John Collins (Hawks) and Kyle Kuzma (Lakers) are legitimately joining the rookie buzz.


MVP
As of now 5 legit candidates: James Harden (Rockets), DeMarcus Cousins (Pelicans), Lebron James (Cavs), Giannis Antetokounpo (Bucks) and Ben Simmons (Sixers). (Yeah, I said it)


DPOY
Among the league leaders in Defensive Rebounds, Steals and Blocks: DeMarcus Cousins (Pelicans), Andre Drummond (Pistons), Giannis Antetokounpo (Bucks) and Anthony Davis (Pelicans). Throw in Lebron James (Cavs) and Rudy Gobert (Jazz) and that would seem to round out the candidates so far.


6th Man
Kyle Kuzma (Lakers) is a pretty good rebounder off the bench, reliable shooter close to the basket (kinda disappointing 3P% at the moment). Will Barton (Nuggets) is shooting well from 3PT and 2PT (though strangely mediocre from FT), 2:1 Asst:TO rate. Kelly Oubre (Wizards) shoots well off the bench and pretty good rebounder too (though not terribly noteworthy on defense or as a ball handler). Terry Rozier (Celtics), sure handed with the ball, decent rebounder (though not scoring particularly well). Marco Belinelli (Hawks) is tearing it up from 3PT and the FT, excellent Asst:TO, the kind of reliable vet off the bench that every coach dreams of. Tyreke Evans (Grizzlies), shooting at a good % and taking care of the ball. Jonathon Simmons (Magic), more turnovers then you'd like off the bench but scoring well. Lou Williams (Lakers) is shooting well (and not too much!) and handling the ball well, not bad. Cory Joseph (Pacers) is shooting well with a 2:1 asst:to.  Combined with Darren Collison, the Pacers are getting really good PG play. James Johnson (Heat) has been one of my favorite players to watch for a few years now and he's still good with the ball and shooting well. Rudy Gay (Spurs) is kinda reminding me of LaMarcus Aldridge with more handle. (Listen: I still think Aldridge is underappreciated in San Antonio and can be the center of the offense and with Gay mimicking him off the bench, I think the Spurs can keep this vibe going all year; though it seems like Dejounte Murray has regressed). TJ McConnell (Sixers) is another one of my favorite players to watch, so much energy, that dude just never stops moving. Solid asst:to but doesn't add a lot of points. Spencer Dinwidder (Nets) still with an impressive 70:14 asst:to. Andre Iguodala (Warriors) has a terrific asst:to, good rebound numbers and is clearly a trusted cog of an amazing machine, but, man, his 3PT shooting is unbelievably awful (4-22, yeech!) and is only averaging 1FTA. Doug McDermott (Knicks) and Kyle Korver (Cavs) have similar numbers and are both shooting really well (indeed, I'd say their success each has a lot to do with their teams' success). McDermott takes too many 2PT shots. Shelvin Mack (Magic) has 70:15 asst:to and double digit steals (not shooting particularly well though). Ish Smith (Pistons) 56:18 and shooting at a good %.


Coach
Brad Stevens (Celtics)
The Celtics are still tops in the East and leading the league in Opponents' PPG thanks to a game plan that works and a rotation that knows what its supposed to do.


Executive
Danny Ainge (Celtics)....hmm, that was easy.

2017-18 NBA Awards Watch (Week 3)

ROY
Three more debuts this week: Derrick Walton (Heat), Tyler Cavanaugh (Hawks), Tony Bradley (Jazz) bringing the total to 66 so far.

Ben Simmons (Sixers) still leads all rookies in Per Game: Minutes, Points, Rebounds, Assists, Free Throw Attempts (and is second in Steals). Who else can you possible vote for? And that's considering that this is a strong and interesting rookie class but Simmons is clearly the best of the bunch. He'll be an All-Star, should get some MVP votes and could even snare an All-Pro spot.


DPOY
Demarcus Cousins (Pelicans) is among league leaders in Blocks, Steals, Defensive Rebounds and Minutes Played. Factor in that his effective FG% is 53% and he's currently leading the league in Free Throw Attempts and that's a pretty good case that he is controlling the game as well as anyone in the league.


6th Man
No clear cut standout so far but some interesting stats: Spencer Dinwiddie (Nets) has 54:12 Asst:TO off the bench. Marco Belinelli (Hawks) has a 27:12 Asst:TO, is averaging 2 APG/1 RPG, and is shooting 45% from 3 and 95% from the line. Alex Len (Suns) averaging 8RPG and 5FTA off the bench. Marcus Smart (Celtics) has 48:21 Asst:TO and Terry Rozier (Celtics) has 27:7 and both are among the league leaders in Steals (though neither is shooting particularly well). John Collins (Hawks) and Ed Davis (Blazers) are among the league leaders in Offensive Rebounds. PJ Tucker (Rockets) not really showing up in the stats (leading in Minutes Played off the bench) but the eye test suggests to me he's contributing a lot for his squad.


Coach 
Brad Stevens (Celtics) is the easy pick so far: totally revamped roster, blistering expectations, already endured a heart-breaking injury to their big free agent pickup, getting a lot of minutes out of untested youngsters and the Celtics are still tops in the League--and looking like they could very well stay there all season long. That's amazing and totally legit: this team as it is right now looks like the best in the East. (Man, I'd never advocate bringing a guy back from injury too soon, but if Hayward were ready by mid-March, the Celtics might be looking pretty good to win it now)

I'd say Frank Vogel (Magic) and Jeff Hornacek (Knicks) should get big credit for their teams' hot starts.


Executive 
Yeah, this is still Danny Ainge's (Celtics) to lose, right? We'll see if some crafty GM can swing the perfect move at the trade deadline (Cousins is just waiting to be plucked), otherwise this is all Celtics.


MVP
Personally I think Brad Stevens is the Celtics' MVP but I can certainly understand the kudos for Kyrie Irving. LIkewise, I'd say the Warriors are too good, too balanced to produce a particular MVP. But Kristap Porzingas (Knicks) has been balling out and leading his team. Ben Simmons (Sixers)--yeah, I said it, this kid is un-guardable and clearly the reason for their hot start (Embiid is the icing but Simmons is the cake). And, of course, can't forget how great James Harden (Rockets) still is. Still lots of time for other candidates to emerge.

2017-18 NBA Awards Watch (Week 2)

ROY
7 NBA debuts this week: Jacob Wiley (Nets), Charles Cooke (Pelicans), Jalen Jones (Pelicans), Mangok Mathiang (Hornets), Marcus Paige (Hornets), Antonio Blakeney (Bulls), Ivan Rabb (Grizzlies)

After 2 weeks there are 16 rooks averaging at least 20MPG: Simmons, Ball, Tatum, Markkanen, Smith, Brooks, Kuzma, Fox, Josh Jackson, Bogdanovic, Bacon, Mitchell, James, Monk, Adebayo, Collins

11 averaging at least 10PPG: Simmons, Markkanen, Tatum, Kuzma, Fox, Bogdanovic, Collins, Smith, James, Jackson, Ball

7 averaging at least 5RPG: Markkanen, Simmons, Ball, Collins, Tatum, Adebayo, Bacon

5 averaging at least 4APG: Simmons, Ball, Smith, Tatum, Fox, Teodosic

5 have at least 20 FTA: Simmons, Tatum, Collins, Jackson, Smith

3 have at least 10 total Steals: Jackson, Simmons, Brooks

Ben Simmons (Sixers), Jaysun Tatum (Celtics), Lonzo Ball (Lakers), Lauri Markkanen (Bulls), Dennis Smith (Mavs), John Collins (Hawks) are pretty much the only players in the ROY conversation for now.


Other Awards
Uhhhh....I've watched zero basketball this week because of that killer Astros-Dodgers World Series. Game Seven tonight! Oh well, I'll be back at it tomorrow.

Random question

If the Hawks end up #1 in the East, does Danny Ferry win Executive of the Year if he's been on leave the entire season?  How many teams would benefit from having their GM disappear for a year?