2025 NCAA Tournament (Sweet 16)

East

(6) BYU - (2) Alabama

(4) Arizona - (1) Duke

Duke came in as the #1 team in the land with the #1 NBA prospect (Cooper Flagg) and looked poised to do some damage. But they're not invincible, when the chips are down they rely a little too much on Flagg and the ACC was truly horrendous this year, so as good as they are, Duke is no guarantee to take it all. I didn't much care for Arizona this season, but they've got some veterans who should keep them in the game. Duke breezed through the last two rounds by building big leads and suffocating their opponents. If Arizona can keep pace with them early, they can hang with them late. But I think Duke is the better team and should advance. 

BYU was one of my darlings coming in, I just like the way they play and they're an unassuming batch of fellows, so when they get hot from the field or get their pressing defense going, I think they drive teams in shell shock. I like Alabama, I thought one of the best squads all season long. But outside of Ole Miss (still alive, by the way), they haven't played anyone quite like BYU. Alabama is the better team and should navigate this minefield, but I think BYU has a great shot at an upset here. 

Can BYU then go on to beat Duke? Again, if they can keep pace on the scoreboard, then yeah they absolutely can. Gotta go with Duke out of this bracket (but BYU is tantalizing). 

West

(4) Maryland - (1) Florida

(10) Arkansas - (3) Texas Tech

Florida is on a killer streak right now but I never really bought into them this season, was puzzled that so many thought of the Gators as the fave. The fact that they struggled mightily against a feisty but overmatched UConn side confirmed my thoughts that Florida is bit on the overhyped side. Maryland has had a nice season and seems to be most dangerous (and paradoxically most in danger) at the buzzer. If Florida comes out shooting well, they may roll right over the Terps, but if not, Maryland can absolutely steal this game. 

Arkansas! Not a gimmick, they are for real. Forget about their disappointing SEC play this year, this team is deep, loaded with veterans and prospects and their two-headed monster (Boogie Fland, DJ Wagner) give them plenty of attack. Make no mistake: Arkansas is the best of the four remaining teams in this bracket and playing their best basketball of the season.

I'll take Arkansas to win their next two games and book passage to the Final 4. 

South

(6) Mississippi - (2) Michigan State

(5) Michigan - (1) Auburn

Michigan State is nice but they flounder around instead of just finishing teams off and Ole Miss might be just the pesky foe they fear most. I do think the Spartans are better but will the play better on this night? Not sure. 

I think Auburn is the best team in the country. I think Michigan has trouble scoring in their half court set. I think this one is all Auburn.

And I'll take Auburn to finish the other side, too. 

Midwest

(3) Kentucky - (2) Tennessee

(4) Purdue - (1) Houston

Kentucky has already beaten the Vols twice this season and history shows that typically the 2-time winner wins the 3rd match, as well. The Vols are nice but they get a little hyper against the Wildcats, if they can shoot well and keep their pacing, they probably are the better team. But I'll go ahead and take the Wildcats to keep moving on. They're playing their best basketball right now and while this is a ragtag kinda squad, they've been strong against UT for a while now. 

Houston is the one flying under the radar.  All they do is win. I think they'll dispatch Purdue without much trouble and I think they'll grind down whichever SEC opponent they get on the other side. 

Informal ranking of the remaining teams:

1-4 - Auburn, Houston, Duke, Arkansas

5-8 - Alabama, BYU, Kentucky, Tennessee, 

9-12 - Florida, Michigan State, Mississippi, Maryland

13-16 - Texas Tech, Michigan, Arizona, Purdue

2022 Masters

Scottie Scheffler -10, Rory McIlroy -7, Shane Lowry/Cam Smith -5, Collin Morikawa -4

Thursday was kinda easy-going, everyone was watching Tiger and no one really stood out on day #1. Then on Friday, just as I thinking to myself, 'Well, no one is gonna run away with it this year', that was right about the time that Scheffler went hognutty on the back nine and took a stranglehold on the lead for the rest of the weekend. A hell of a performance: while everyone else was figuring out the wind and the greens, Scheffler was just making plays. 

Saturday was all about wind and the tightness around the holes (man, can't remember so many near-miss putts that just skittered over the hole). Scheffler was able to withstand the elements, hold his big lead and that was exactly the right play. Going into Sunday, everyone was gonna need Scheffler to seriously falter to have a shot at a win, but a top-5 finish was on the table for a lot of dudes. Turned out to be McIlroy going -8 on the final day to streak up the board (though at no point was he a real threat to Scheffler). 

Two holes on Sunday made the difference. On #3, Scheffler and Smith both yanked the ball into the woods, then both just missed catching the green and rolled back down the hill right next to each other. Scheffler chipped in for bird, Smith two-putted for bogey. That was a major tone-setter early on.

Then on #12, Smith (like so many before him) went for the big play on Amen Corner, went in the drink, dropped a +3 and that was it for Smith. Game effort, for the most part Smith hung with Scheffler but couldn't make the big move on the back nine. I was impressed with Smith almost as Scheffler, I expect both of those dudes to have monstrous seasons.

The big story (sorry, Scheffler) was the return of Tiger Woods. He played damn good on Thursday, kinda sucked on Friday, was not bad on Saturday and then kinda sucked again on Sunday. He was clearly laboring, but it was impressive the way he gutted out a tough set. He wanted to play four rounds and he did it and the audience loved every second of his performance. He limped a lot, dipped his shoulder on his drive and never looked dangerous to win anything, but he's gonna slip right into the Arnie/Jack fan favorite role that Golf features so prominently. (So....Tiger will just be playing the Majors from now on, right?)

Another element overshadowing Scheffler's coming out party was a load of really good highlights. This one was my fave of the final round, McIlroy and Morikawa both chipping for birds on the 18th.

I love the Masters, pretty much the only golf I watch all year, the way it nestles between March Madness and the NBA playoffs is perfect early spring comfort food. Some might be disappointed that Scheffler so firmly clamped down this touney, but I don't mind a dominant performance--dude was awesome! Ice cold, knocking down shots, recovered from mistakes very well, Scheffler did it all, a great performance. 

2022 NCAA Tournament (Day Four)

Games I saw (some of): 

(5) Houston 68-53 (4) Illinois

Toss up of a game. Houston's wing scoring was ultimately more effective than Illinois's inside bully ball (why isn't Kofi Cockburn higher in the mock drafts? This kid is a monster that can obviously bang with big bodies). Illinois just didn't have the balance in their attack and Houston was pretty successful at swamping Cockburn down low. Houston had a nice offensive onslaught before the 8-minute timeout to pretty much finish off this match.

(7) Ohio State 61-71 (2) Villanova

Buckeyes kept pace for a while but Nova was just better. 

(7) Michigan State 76-85 (2) Duke

Fun game! Every time you thought Duke had taken control, the Spartans would come roaring back and this game was close into the final minute. State actually took the lead late but couldn't sustain it and Duke slipped away. This Duke squad has a lot of talent but they're young, on any given night they could get taken out. 

Other results:

(11) Iowa State 54-49 (3) Wisconsin

There were whispers of Wisconsin's overrated-ness all season long, looks like it finally got to them even though they were close to home. Good luck to Iowa State, so far so good. 

(11) Notre Dame 53-59 (3) Texas Tech

Tech has been a top ten team for most of the season, are they gearing up for a deeper run?

(10) Miami 79-61 (2) Auburn

Auburn has a lot of talent but not a lot of energy, looks like it caught up with them here. Miami is having a nice tourney and they're up against Iowa State next, some Cinderella-on-Cinderella crime is about to go down.  

(6) Texas 71-81 (3) Purdue

I haven't been as impressed with Purdue as I feel like I'm supposed to be, we'll see how far they get. 

(9) Texas Tech 80-85 (OT) (1) Arizona

Saw none of this, looks like a top seed got pushed to the limit. TCU had a nice little run in this tourney, wonder if it's something they can build on. Is this an indicator that Arizona is vulnerable or do they have renewed confidence?

2022 NCAA Tournament (Day Three)

Games I watched (some of):

(8) North Carolina 93-86 (OT) (1) Baylor

Fun game! The Tar Heels jumped out to a mighty lead thanks to a bust out performance from Manek (yipes! That kid was doing everything!). But when he got booted (meh, it was clearly a foul worthy of a technical but I thought a straight red card was not warranted), even though they were up by 25 (67-42, if I'm not mistaken) with less then 10 mins to go, UNC suddenly lost all shape, had no intensity on offense, kept getting unlucky calls, and Baylor stormed back to take the game to OT. But then, for whatever reason, Baylor couldn't keep the momentum. It's not uncommon to see a team come back, come close and then falter, but Baylor had this game won, I don't understand why they couldn't seal it. But great W for North Carolina. 

(9) Creighton 72-79 (1) Kansas

Good game, but I never thought Kansas was in any real danger. Creighton shot well and kept pace, pushing Kansas all the way. But Kansas had more talent, minimized turnovers and got it done. Actually, an impressive win for the top seed, I'd say, the kind of game that reminds the big dog that they need to keep working to win. I picked Kansas to win it all and I'm sticking with that. 

(11) Michigan 76-68 (3) Tennessee

Tennessee struck me as the better team but Michigan kept the scoring up and the Vols' offense became unreliable late. Good W for the Wolverines (5th straight Sweet 16). 

(15) St. Peter's 70-60 (7) Murray State

This was an even more impressive performance to me than beating Kentucky. I've watched enough Kentucky this year to know their weaknesses and I just assumed St. Peter's just settled on the right game plan. But St. Peters' ability to keep the lane open allows them to drive to the basket at will, while on the other end they clog the lane so effectively--they control both ends of the floor by doing the exact opposite, they're really pretty amazing. They make their opponents take hard shots and give them no chance at second chance opportunities, while opening up their own attacking options on the other end. If they can do this four more times, they can beat anybody (probably not Duke or Gonzaga but everyone else needs to be worried!). Good season for Murray State but they just couldn't get enough easy buckets to keep up. 

Other results:

(12) Richmond 51-79 (4) Providence

Looks like Richmond was never really in this match. 

(5) St. Mary's 56-72 (4) UCLA

UCLA played a well balanced game, kept the scoring up throughout, good W. 

(12) New Mexico State 48-53 (4) Arkansas

Hmmmm....not a lot of scoring in this one. Not sure what that portends for Arkansas. 

(9) Memphis 78-82 (1) Gonzaga

Tigers really made the Zags work in this one. Drew Timme took over down the stretch and sealed this for Gonzaga. This was a good test for the Zags and they overcame it, that's a good sign for their chances. 

2022 NCAA Tournament (Day Two)

Games I watched (some of):

(10) Loyola Chicago 41-54 (7) Ohio State

Ohio State didn't blow me away but Loyola just didn't have enough offense to keep up.

(15) Delaware 60-80 (2) Villanova

Took Nova a little while to get going but a nice run before halftime got them going and they dominated the second half.

(15) CSU Fullerton 61-78 (2) Duke

Fullerton made them work for while but Duke was never really challenged. Getting free samples of Banchero before the draft made it worth watching. 

(10) Davidson 73-74 (7) Michigan State

Fun game! Back and forth, every time it felt like someone was gonna take the upper hand, the other team would come charging back. Even down to the end, the Spartans had to sweat it out.

Other results:

(15) Jacksonville State 61-80 (2) Auburn

Auburn is a problematic squad but they definitely have enough to hold off the fightin' Deions.

(14) Montana State 62-97 (3) Texas Tech

Look like Tech brought the gun to the knife fight.

(14) Yale 56-78 (3) Purdue

Purdue is shaping up to be the dark horse, right?

(10) Miami 68-66 (7) Southern Cal

Looked like a fun one. 

(11) Notre Dame 78-64 (6) Alabama

Bama was weird all year long, a lot of talent but no consistency. Looks like the Irish drew the right opponent. 

(11) Virginia Tech 73-81 (6) Texas

I don't know either of these teams, so I have no way to judge UT's W.  

(13) Chattanooga 53-54 (4) Illinois

Saw none of the game but the highlights were intriguing: Illinois didn't get their first lead until the final minute and sweated out a final shot that could've won it for the Mocs. Game effort from Chattanooga but just a bit short. 

(11) Iowa State 59-54 (6) Louisiana State

LSU had their moments this year but faltered into controversy going into the tourney (for some reason I had them going to the Sweet 16, not sure what I was thinking, this one looks pretty obvious in hindsight). No idea about Iowa State.

(16) Wright State 70-87 (1) Arizona

Yeah, sounds about right. 

(12) Alabama-Birmingham 68-82 (5) Houston

I think Houston could be ready to make a run.

(14) Colgate 60-67 (3) Wisconsin

Feels like Colgate probably should've pulled this one out but went cold late. 

(9) Texas Christian 69-42 (8) Seton Hall

Looks like Seton Hall couldn't generate much offense. 

2021 Gold Cup (semifinals)

Qatar 3-2 El Salvador

2 mins in El Salvador has an unfortunate giveaway in the midfield, offense turns to defense, Qatar has two guys going forward, they cross up the defense, leaving a lane for a 3rd guy streaking through, who gets himself all alone inside the box and finishes a nice rip past the diving keeper. A few minutes later, Qatar scored from 20 yds out (one of those cold blooded upper 90 shots you'd see in old Brazil highlight videos), just nasty, just completely outta nowhere, gets himself a bit of space and rips the upper 90, just a thing of beauty. El Salvador was shellshocked and Qatar just took it to them for about 60 minutes and when Qatar goes up 3-0 on a PK early in the 2nd half, El Salvador finally woke up and balled out for the last 30 mins. Fun game! El Salvador gets on the board in the 63rd min, after a nice overhead pass sneaks inside the offside trap and the dude up front got a nice shot and he ripped it. A coupla mins later, they came right back down and drilled another and it was a game for a while.  The Salvadorans had the tying goal waived off for offside (correct call), but they attacked and made it a game. But that first 60 mins, man, Qatar looked like a hit squad. 

Honduras 0-3 Mexico

Yeah, Mexico was just better. They attacked better, defended better, countered better, controlled better...they were just better. It was only a matter of time before they found the goal and when they did, they piled on quick and were up by 3 goals at halftime. The 2nd half, as you might imagine, was a snooze. I watched Honduras in the group play and they looked all right to me, so I'm thinking Mexico is really rounding into shape and is planning on winning this Cup. 

Costa Rica 0-2 Canada

Canada looked in control in a way that Canada normally does not, but I suspect Costa Rica is not at their best. Canada is a nice squad but I don't think they're gonna give Mexico much of match. 

USA 1-0 Jamaica

Jamiaca always has blazing speed and good athleticism and they used both in their full court press that kept the Americans on their heels for long stretches of the match. I thought USA countered it pretty well, held possession and moved forward effectively and for the most part kept Jamaica away from scoring chances. When USA finally got the lead in the 2nd half, they held it by maintaining effective possession down the stretch. I know that this is not USA's 1st team, I'm not sure if the other countries brought their A-team or not. This feels like a good W for USA.

Semifinals

Qatar v USA

If Qatar comes out blazing the way they did against El Salvador, USA is gonna be in some trouble. And they might still be. As dominant as Qatar was in the 1st half of that quarterfinal, I thought they whiffed on a lot of good chances...so are they the kinda team that whiffs a lot or are they they kinda team that gets up early and then farts around? I dunno. I would suggest that USA not find out. I think USA bunkers in, counters to a fast break offense, and generally just tries to keep Qatar away from goal. I could see a match where Qatar dominates possession, only for the Americans to steal the game late with athletic play...or I can also see penalty kicks. I'll take USA 1-0 in regulation (but its anyone game in OT).  

Mexico v Canada

Mexico is built for tournaments like this, Canada has already looked better than I've ever seen them in my life. Could it be that Canada is ready to announce itself in the Gold Cup world? I doubt it. I'll take Mexico 2-0. 

2018-19 NCAA Final

Auburn 62-63 Virginia
Wow, what a game! For the record: I saw the double dribble live! I was yelling at the TV and kinda surprised the announcers didn't say anything (thought it felt like Grant Hill went notably silent there). And: yes, that was a foul of the 3-pointer at the end. But those are just details on a pretty crazy final 5 minutes of action. UVA built up a 10 point lead at the final TV timeout, felt like they were gonna finish it off. Suddenly Auburn starts hitting 3's and then both teams are wildly fouling each other late to stop the clock--but there were so few fouls committed that that strategy seemed to take forever! Amazing roller coaster of a game, Auburn played their guts out and it's a damn shame they didn't get a better result but UVA did the little things down the stretch to take it.

Texas Tech 61-51 Michigan State
Okay, I'm in on Tech, they are for real. I knew they were good but the way they were winning in this tourney was clouding my judgement. But they thoroughly controlled the 2nd half of this game, shot well enough to spook the Spartans and kept Cassius Winston off balance throughout. State had their chances but they just never got hot enough from outside to get back in it. Great W for Tech, they are worthy of the title.


Final:
Texas Tech - Virginia (-1) (o/u 118)
Real b-ball fans will be enthused by this matchup--two virtually identical squads bashing into each other--but the casual fan will probably be pretty bummed by this contest. These two are such great defensive squads that both will control the lane on defense, run down the shot clock and commit no fouls.  So the 1st half will fly by (something like 22-20 at the half), then most of the 2nd half will also fly by...until the last five minutes when it becomes a foul contest (like UVA-Auburn), which will drag out the ending forever. If both teams knock down free throws, the score might balloon late, but likely neither of these teams will get past 60 points (I'd take the under and hope both squads turn cold at the line).  I'll take UVA to finish it off, solely because going from losing to a #16 seed and then winning the championship is as great a redemption story as sports could possibly produce; but Tech is playing as good as UVA right now, so this could go either way. This is as closely matched a combination of teams in a final as I can think of in recent memory. I expect this to be close throughout and be a nail biter right down to the wire and I don't see much scoring happening. I'll take UVA and the under.

2018-19 NCAA Elite Eight

Oregon 49-53 Virginia
Again: Virginia's stifling defense turns games into soccer matches where the paucity of scoring can keep the outcome in doubt even when it feels like the Cavs are dominating. I liked Oregon, they played with spunk and knocked down shots but Virginia had the better talent and the game plan to weather the storm.

Purdue 99-94 (OT) Tennessee
Tennessee had a really strange run in this tourney: dominating half of each of their games and getting blown out in the other halves. So even though Purdue built a dominant lead in the 2nd half, the Vols were able to rally and send it into OT. But they ran out of gas and Purdue squelched them out fairly easily in the extra frame. Good performance from the Boilermakers, I think they'll give Virginia a good run.

Florida State 58-72 Gonzaga

Gonzaga generally led all the way through but State kept hanging around making this a compelling match. Felt like Gonzaga had the talent and the teamwork to win but the Seminoles hung tight (until about the last TV timeout), so despite the lopsided final score, this was still a tight game with about 5 minutes left. Gonzaga persevered and got it done like a top squad should. 

Texas Tech 63-44 Michigan
Well, the Wolverines picked an unfortunate time to have their worst game of the year. They shot so poorly early on that it just killed their offense for the whole night allowing Tech's zone defense to stifle any chance to get a drive-kick offense going, so the hole for the Wolverines just kept getting deeper. Tech was fine but this was about Michigan's inability to score (1-19 from 3 and that single make was the final basket of the game), so it's kinda hard to tell how well Tech will stack up against Gonzaga.

LSU 63-80 Michigan State
In the 1st half State shot the ball really well, never turned it over and got every rebound--the fact that LSU was only down 12 seemed miraculous to me!  State held a healthy lead throughout but LSU did hang around and kinda kept it closer than it should've been (yes, 17 was closer than it should've been!). LSU had a good season and a good run through the tourney but they overachieved and a thumping loss to end it all was preordained. State looks solid.

Virginia Tech 73-75 Duke
All I saw was the last few minutes but Tech had their chances to take it and just couldn't convert in the final minute. Duke has the best 2 players in the tournament but that's all they've got, so they're still very much in the hunt to win it all but we'll see if that lack of depth catches up to them.

Auburn 97-80 North Carolina
Yup: Auburn got hot and won big despite losing their leading scorer (Okeke) to a gruesome injury late in the game (weird looking injury: not sure what happened to him but he was clearly in some pain). North Carolina had been playing really well and if they'd stymied Auburn's outside shooting they would've won but once the tide turned on them they were powerless.

Houston 58-62 Kentucky
I really thought Kentucky was the better team but they had a stretch of bad possessions in the 2nd half that made it necessary for PJ Washington (*) to rip the cast off his leg and make plays to seal the W. Houston had an indomitable performance from Corey Davis (man, they kid attacked, attacked, attacked!) but foul trouble and spotty shooting kept them from taking full advantage of Kentucky's anemic offense in the 2nd half.


Elite Eight
Purdue-Virginia (-4.5)
Virginia plays a rigidly disciplined game plan built around stifling defense designed to suck the will out of their opponents; if they had an efficient offense to go with this, they'd be lights out every year, but they don't. And because they sometimes struggle to score, it gives hope to opponents that ought to be frustrated beyond belief. I think Purdue is not dissimilar but they've got an inside-out offense that can generate points from the perimeter--which could be the death blow to Virginia. Both teams rebound well so this game will be about FG% especially from beyond the arc. I think Purdue has a better chance to get hot from outside which should make all the difference. I'll take Purdue in a low scoring contest to win and cover.

Texas Tech-Gonzaga (-4)
I don't know either of these teams that well but my gut says that Gonzaga is the better team with a better sense of self and they've played better teams to get here. Tech has done what they've needed to do but Ohio State and Michigan don't have the talent up top, depth on the back end or game plan that Gonzaga has. I think Gonzaga takes this one fairly easily.

Auburn-Kentucky (-3)
Kentucky has already beaten Auburn twice this season (actually that was Auburn's last L) but the two games were so different that they're not terribly predictive here (except that in both of those games neither side was at full strength which does mirror this contest, as well). The bottom line is if Auburn is coming in without Okeke and Kentucky is coming in with Washington, then it will require an all time 3-point game to pull this out for Auburn to pull this out. Auburn is capable of doing that but I feel like Kentucky is ready for a big Keldon Johnson game and this could be it. I'll take Kentucky to win and cover.

Michigan State-Duke (-1.5)
College basketball, man: Duke has struggled late in two straight games against weaker opponents, so against a top flight squad that's playing well now, they'll finally meet their match, right? Ehh, maybe. Just as likely State gets off to a bad start, Duke's bench comes in and drains 3's and the game's a Blue Devil blowout by halftime. State has had a workmanlike season, started kinda slow, had a bad stretch in the middle of the conference schedule but has built nicely toward the end and is playing really good right now. Duke has been really good all season but somehow not as dominant as it feels like they could've been and has struggled mightily in their last two tournament games. I think State is the deeper team, the more defined team and the team playing better right now. I wouldn't be surprised to see Zion and Barrett blow up but I think State can endure their onslaught and control the ball better. I'll take Michigan State to win and cover.


(*) All season long in mock drafts I've seen Washington pegged as a mid-2nd rounder and I don't get it at all! Good size, good ball handler, scores from all over, smart player, carried a top ten team for long stretches of the season, then plays through pain to make the difference in a tournament game--what more are scouts looking for? I like Keldon Johnson as much as the next guy (he kinda disappeared in this game) but if he's a top ten pick then Washington is a top five pick!

2018-19 NCAA Sweet Sixteen

Coming into this tournament it seemed plain that there were 8 teams better than everyone else: I'd rank them Duke, Gonzaga, Virginia, Michigan State, North Carolina, Tennessee, Kentucky, Michigan. All are still alive, with Duke getting a serious scare from Central Florida (who played the game of their lives) and Kentucky getting a minor scare from Wofford (tricky little team actually). Throw in that the second tier (Texas Tech, Purdue, Florida State, Houston, LSU, Virginia Tech) was solid as well, then the fact that this particular Sweet Sixteen is the highest ranked of all time should not come as a shock to anyone and unless you were betting on serious upsets, no one's bracket is all that busted just yet. Throw in that the two interlopers (Oregon, Auburn) were both ranked in the pre-season top 25 and both just won their conference tourneys, well, this is as chalky as the Flint, Michigan water supply. Now we're ready for some upsets and some god damn good ball games!

EAST
Duke (-8) v Virginia Tech
Tech beat Duke earlier this year in their only meeting so though Duke is loaded with a crop of dudes already vying for next year's NBA Rookie of the Year Award, I expect Tech to come in heads up and balls out. We've seen Duke's fatal flaw already: Zion and Barrett are two of the best players in all of college basketball but the rest of that roster is not so impressive. If Tech can force Duke into plumbing their minimal depth, then an upset would be in the offing. Though Duke really is thin on the backside, I expect Zion and Barrett to have big games (and get all the calls) and cruise into the next round. I'll take Duke to win but Tech to cover.

LSU v Michigan State (-6.5)
LSU is a scrappy team that figures out how to win games late; being the favorite in the SEC tournament doomed them, however, because they're not a strong frontrunner type, rather they are a dangerous underdog type. Now they're back in the underdog role and I expect them to give Michigan State a helluva challenge. State is solid all over, not great at anything but not bad at anything either. If they play their best they should be better than LSU (who are playing with an interim coach and having recently suffered the death of one of their rotation players). This game will be fun for the first 35 minutes, whoever takes over late will steal it. I'll go with Michigan State to win but LSU to cover (oh, don't be surprised if this one goes to OT).


WEST
Gonzaga (-6.5) v Florida State
This is a rematch of last year's Sweet Sixteen match where Florida State blitzed Gonzaga to advance (only to lose to Michigan, who may await again). Gonzaga has won so far by playing their game: inside-out with bigs that can handle the ball and guards that never turn the ball over. State has won by scoring with great efficiency down low (and weathering the breakout of Ja Morant). This game will be a battle down low and I think foul trouble might make the difference, whoever is getting the calls will probably win the game. I dunno....I'll take Gonzaga, I just think there's more star power there and they'll get the breaks. Gonzaga to win and cover.

Michigan (-2) v Texas Tech
Michigan is really good on the perimeter, Tech is better down low. I think Michigan will need to hit 3's to win. Tech will need to slow the pace and score efficiently. Tough call, I'll go with Michigan to win and cover.


SOUTH
Virginia (-8) v Oregon
Oregon is on a ten game winning streak but the Pac-12 was not too inspiring this year and beating Wisconsin and UC-Irvine to get here is not blowing me away either. Virginia's grinding defense is dangerous in that they sometimes forget to score and can be bested by a relatively mediocre offensive output from their opponent. That said, I think UVA will be successful at controlling the tempo and scoring enough to comfortably win. I'll take Virginia to win and cover (in what will likely be the softest game of the Sweet Sixteen).

Purdue v Tennessee (-1)
This is tough to call because both of these squads are so unpredictable: capable of playing letter perfect games and capable of disappearing in the moment. Purdue won a share of the Big Ten regular season title but their out of conference schedule is kinda disappointing; I'm actually more impressed by Tennessee's 2nd place finish in the SEC because the SEC was unusually good this year and a win over Gonzaga, two wins over Kentucky and a hard fought L to Kansas suggest they've worked harder to get here than Purdue. In the tournament, Purdue made short work of Old Dominion and Villanova while Tennessee struggled with Colgate and Iowa. My gut is that Tennessee is the better team but I feel like Purdue is playing better right now. I'll take Purdue to win and cover. 


MIDWEST
North Carolina (-5.5) v Auburn
UNC was kinda up-and-down for most of the year but they're in a real groove right now. Coby White has emerged as for-real baller and he's leading a balanced team with good depth. Auburn is a 3-point shooting team that can beat anyone if they're hitting and lose to anyone if they're not. This game has the potential to turn into a blowout--for either team!--I'll think we'll know by halftime how this game will turn out. While it is certainly possible for Auburn to shock the Heels, I gotta go with North Carolina to win and cover. 

Houston v Kentucky (-2.5)
Houston put up gaudy numbers in their conference but outside of nice W's over Oregon and LSU, they have not played anyone as good as Kentucky this year. If Kentucky had PJ Washington (which I'm assuming they won't), then I would take Kentucky to easily win because I just think they'd enough scoring inside and out to outrun Houston. But since UK will likely be without their best scorer, this game becomes a real toss-up. I'll go with Kentucky (but only because I bleed blue) to win, Houston to cover.


So my potential Elite Eight:
Duke v Michigan State
I think Duke has the better talent but State is the better team. I'd take Michigan State.

Gonzaga v Michigan
This is the game we did NOT get last year. I think Gonzaga is the deeper team and the team ready to move on, I'd take Gonzaga.

Virginia v Purdue
Virginia is rolling right now, I just don't think Purdue could hang with them. I'd take Virginia.

North Carolina v Kentucky
UK beat them earlier this year but UNC is a much better team now and if UK doesn't have PJ Washington, I just don't see how they could hang. I'd take North Carolina.


Of these Sweet Sixteen games, only Virginia over Oregon seems like a lock to me. UNC-Auburn could end up being a runaway (depending on Auburn's 3pt%) but all the other games should be fascinating and down to the wire. The first weekend was kinda anti-climactic but that just makes this weekend all the more captivating.

NCAA Final Four

South Carolina-Gonzaga
I was right on both of these two. I thought South Carolina would keep the momentum against another team favored against them; hey, South Carolina beat Duke and Baylor to get the Elite Eight while Florida beat an overrated Virginia and a Wisconsin team that was overachieving. I'm still impressed with South Carolina's moxie, their steady hand down the stretch and Sindarius Thornwell stepping up before the draft. Gonzaga, on the other hand, is just plain good and as plucky as Xavier was, I figured the Zags would make short work of them.

South Carolina has bested superior foes again and again in this tourney, seems like if anyone can roll with Gonzaga this is the team. Gonzaga is maybe the best team in the nation this year and though they haven't been tested too much, that doesn't feel like a drawback, it feels more like they're playing the way they've played all year long and no one else can keep up. I like what the Gamecocks have been doing but I think this is the end of the line for them. Gonzaga is too good, too consistent, too deep. South Carolina would have to shoot the lights out, never turn the ball over and get lucky to get a hold on this game.

Oregon-North Carolina
I missed both of these. I thought Kansas would make short work of the over matched Oregon (uh, nope, Oregon controlled Kansas from beginning to end) and I thought Kentucky's scoring would wear down UNC (foul trouble for Fox and a sluggish performance from Monk doomed the Wildcats). I'm still not exactly sure what Oregon brings to this matchup, a gutsy will to win kinda thing I reckon. UNC has depth and they're getting solid performances from their  supporting cast but I got my doubts about their PG play. My gut feeling was that the UNC-UK winner would take the crown but I think UNC may have been exposed. If Oregon's guards bring their A-game, I think Oregon can do what Kentucky wasn't able to: outscore the Tarheels. I'll take Oregon.

In the Final, I'll go with Gonzaga over Oregon. As good as Oregon has been (and will have to continue to be), I just think Gonzaga is too complete for anyone to mess with.

NCAA Sweet Sixteen

Coming into this tourney I thought there was a clear top tier in college basketball (with their pre-season rankings): Gonzaga (#14), Kansas (#3), Villanova (#4), Duke (#1), North Carolina (#6), UCLA (#16), Kentucky (#2), Louisville (#13). And a clear 2nd tier: Baylor (NR), Arizona (#10), Florida State (#28), Oregon (#5), Purdue (#15), Butler (#33), West Virginia (#20), Florida (#37). (How was Baylor not ranked in the pre-season top 50?)

I thought going in that the opening weekend would be pretty mellow on upsets but then the Sweet Sixteen on would be an all-time classic demolition derby.  I was kinda close: Villanova, Duke, Louisville and Florida State forgot to make the trip but all the rest are here. And on any given day, any one of those teams above can win it all (or get run out of the gym). Of the interlopers: Wisconsin (#9) and Michigan (#42) just met in the Big 10 Championship, South Carolina (NR) bounced in and out of the top 25 all year long and Xavier (#7) was a pre-season top 10 squad that suffered some untimely injuries but played a tough schedule. So none of the 'Cinderellas' are particularly out of left field.

Who comes out alive? I filled out two brackets and ended up with two entirely different Final Fours, so the difference between the remaining teams is minimal, man. I think all eight games are interesting match-ups.

Wisconsin-Florida: Wisconsin played grind it out defense, Florida plays crank it up offense. If Florida is hot I think they'll win but if they can't get going Wisconsin will swallow them up. I suspect Florida is the better team.  

Baylor-South Carolina: Baylor is not terribly flashy but they're a consistent team, they're gonna grind their way through this game the way they do every other game and they should be better than South Carolina. I loved the way Carolina finished off Duke: they stepped up and made their free throws. Every coach needs to whip out the last 10 minutes of that game to show the importance of fundamental basketball. If South Carolina can score as efficiently as they did against Duke, then they can sneak past Baylor, who has a solid average but probably won't hit home runs. I'll take Baylor.

Gonzaga-West Virginia: Gonzaga is arguably the best team in the nation this season: reliable down low, explosive on the perimeter, they have veteran smarts and good athletes. But West Virginia plays a tricky irritating defense that catches even the steadiest squads off guard. I think Gonzaga is the better team and should win the game but a West Virginia upset would not surprise me.

Xavier-Arizona: I don't really know either of these teams, haven't watched Xavier at all. I watched Arizona over St. Mary's and for the most part I was impressed with St. Mary's but they ran out of gas near the end, so I know Arizona is deep enough to hang with a good team and come out the other side. But I also would've thought that about Florida State...and Xavier just dropkicked them. Xavier is the house money-est of all these teams, I'll stick with them to throw Arizona for a loop.

Kansas-Purdue: Caleb Swanigan has really impressed me so far in this tournament, looking forward to see him in the NBA next year (reminds me of Marc Gasol, Chris Webber and...yeah, I'll say it....Arvydas Sabonis, the ultimate white whale of pro basketball). He's got size, skill and poise...unfortunately I can't say that I've been terribly impressed with anyone else in a Purdue uniform. My gut is Swanigan will bring it and really shine out but Kansas will be the better team and move on. Coming in I thought Kansas was...not the most likely to win but the least likely to not win...that make sense? They're a veteran squad that does what they need to do to win the game and my pick to win it all (well, my non-Kentucky pick, obviously). As much as I love Swanigan's game, he can't do it himself against a top flight squad like Kansas.

Oregon-Michigan: Oregon wasn't at their best coming into the tourney while Michigan had just finished an improbable run through the Big Ten tournament after a so-so regular season. Michigan is rising, Oregon is treading water, which makes them about even. This game is a total toss-up and I don't know either of them well enough to have a sense of how they match-up. I'll take...Michigan?

Butler-North Carolina: I thought UNC got lucky against Arkansas, a coupla bad breaks (and questionable calls) doomed Arkansas. UNC has the talent and the depth but (*ahem*) those ACC teams play a little loose for my tastes. Butler is gonna play their game the right way and leave it on the court, whereas UNC may shine out or they may have their minds on other things. The average favors Butler, the high/low favors/dooms UNC. I'll take the average, I think Butler wins this game.

UCLA-Kentucky: This is the one everyone's waiting for. Kentucky has the sloppy habit of getting down early and digging their way out; they've been able to pull that off many times this year but UCLA is one of this season's opponents where they were not able to pull off the comeback. UCLA didn't blow out UK in that game but they held the lead throughout. *hater talk* I don't like this UCLA team as much as most people do. Ball can be great but he can throw it away too and as good as their outside shooting is, it can dry up. UK plays tenacious D and has an explosive offense. I dunno, I am a homer, but I'll take UK in the re-match.

Thornwell (South Carolina) and Swanigan (Purdue) are probably my two favorite players so far. We'll see who comes up big from here.

NCAA B-Ball

With pro sports I watch all the teams, each game interests me. But with college basketball I pretty much only watch Kentucky until the tournament. So this is just a basic sketch of what I've noticed about basketball as we had into the conference tournaments.

I think there are a lot of deeply talented teams that can play too loose for their own good on any given night. That's definitely what I would say about Kentucky but that seems to be true of Duke, UCLA, North Carolina, Louisville, Arizona and Baylor too. On any given night any of those teams can blast past their opponent and the next game they can stumble around and look like a bunch of leftovers.

Right now I gotta say Kansas is the best all around squad. Not that they have the most talent, I don't think they do, but I think they are solid at every position and they don't play stupid. They're used to working for their wins, they don't panic, they keep control when times get tough. Let me rephrase that: they're not the best team, they are the team most likely to be there at the end. I suspect Villanova might be 2nd for similar reasons.

Duke has the deepest team but this is not a cohesive squad, UCLA is fun to watch and talented but I'm not convinced they're winning squad, North Carolina has plenty of good players but they've got a soft underbelly, Louisville and Arizona both have talent and luck but neither have the consistency needed to get hot in the tourney. Baylor matches well with some teams but could get run out of the gym to others. Kentucky, the team I've watched a lot this year, has explosive scoring and active defense but they lose focus and sputter at times; if you've been watching them all year long you can see how they're going to lose: getting down 10 early on is fine against a weak opponent but it also shows a lack of maturity that will doom them deep in the tournament (flip side: if they win it all, it'll be an amazingly exciting tourney!).

I haven't seen Gonzaga or Butler, I haven't been terribly impressed by Oregon or Florida. I have no sense of who the out-of-nowhere- teams will be largely because I've enjoyed all the classic programs rising to the top with the talent. But all that talent is green. I think the veteran squads have the best chance this season. We'll see, tournament time is right around the corner.

Kentucky's Path to the Championship

As a Cats fan I was hoping the bracket would look like this: Robert Morris (1st), UConn (2nd), Michigan State (Sweet 16), Duke (Elite 8), Wisconsin (Final 4).  For the Final game: Kansas, Arizona, Gonzaga, Villanova, UNC would all make excellent opponents.

The Robert Morris matchup....come on, its perfect whether you like the Cats or not.  How the committee skipped over that is kind of a mystery to me.

If UConn had won the Big East (or whatever the Big East is called these days), they likely would've gone in as a 7-9 seed, allowing for an early rematch of last year's Final.  But more than that UConn is responsible for UK's last two losses in the tourney: 2014 final, 2011 semi-final.  (UK won in 2012 and didn't even make the tourney in 2013)  Getting revenge on the way back to the championship is sweet but in this case it would've been double sweet for Calipari.

Michigan State and UK have played many many many times over the years, its never a bad idea to get them together again.  For Mich St coming in as a 4 seed, hey, you were gonna have to beat Kentucky at some point, might as well be early on.  And for UK, no specific revenge (2005, 1999 Elite Eights were losses to Sparty), just a good test along the way.

Duke v Kentucky in the Elite Eight.  That should probably happen every year IMHO.  Duke has nice W's throughout the year but I think putting them as #2 overall is a bit rich, no?  They just went out in the semi-finals of the ACC tourney, how good are they playing right now?  The television loves Duke, the media loves Coach K, just how it works I guess.  We could have a Duke-UK final...though I don't think Duke's good enough to make that happen.  We'll see.  Okafor is a badass but otherwise it doesn't look like a strong Duke side to me.

Wisconsin in the Final Four would be a rematch of last year's semi-final and Wisconsin is one of the few teams out there that gives me pause this year as a Cats fan.  They've had success, they're older and wiser, they're tough players, Bo Ryan is a helluva coach, they frankly shoulda beat UK last year and I don't think they'd have any fear or any quit in them at all.  That said, I think Kentucky is still better and would be better on that night but Wisconsin would make UK work for it in a way the Cats haven't had to do much this year.

UK's bracket does feature Cincinnati (don't remember the last time we played the Bearcats), Notre Dame (defeated UK in Billy Clyde-led NIT bid and beat UK soundly last year in the regular season), Maryland (not a fierce rivalry but UK-Mary have played many times in the regular season over the years), West Virginia (one of the most crushing defeats of my Cat-watching life was the 2009 Elite 8 losing to WVU and then DUKE won the whole frickin' thing!  Oooohhhhh, man, that one still hurts), and Kansas (they...uh...unh, can't remember the last time we lost to Kansas, one of those crappy Rajon Rondo years maybe?).  (I think Notre Dame beats Kansas with UK beating Maryland in the Sweet 16 and Notre Dame in the Elite 8)

I knew UK was a Final Four team long before the season began. I watched all 6 of their scrimmages last summer in the Bahamas and I was impressed from the very start--and that was without Willie Cauley and Lyles, with Hawkins and Willis playing big minutes.  Their first opponent was the Puerto Rican national team gearing up for their appearance in last year's FIBA World Cup.  They came in as a veteran squad of professional basketball players that had been playing national level elite competition for several months going into this scrimmage against Kentucky.  The Cats were a fine collection of young talent, coming off a troubling but ultimately overachieving year sprinkled with some kids fresh out of high school and a coupla veteran role players that hadn't really played much.  And the very first time these UK players stepped on the court together they smoked a national team on its way to the World Cup.  They smoked 'em.  No hesitation, no doubt who was the better team.  And two days later they came back and smoked 'em again (though admittedly the Puerto Ricans were clearly mailing it in the 2nd time around).  I've loved Kentucky basketball all my life but I must say as a basketball fan I was impressed.  Even more impressed than the first time I saw the Anthony Davis/MKG/Kyle Wiltjer Cats that glided to a championship 3 years ago.

Personally I've been queasy about the undefeated thing all year long, I was glad when the 2012 team lost at Indiana (thought it was the perfect outcome: a loss at the buzzer on the road at a high ranking rival), it gave them just enough humility to comfortably pummel all comers.  This year's team probably should've lost a few games but this team is so deep--soooooooo deeeeeeeep--that even when they tried to give away games, they couldn't do it!  This team just couldn't lose.  And UK doesn't get to have any defeats any more so I guess I'm all in on the undefeated season now.

What UK is susceptible to is losing focus.  If UK comes out lackadaisical and the opponent gets hot (I mean 3's, FT's and fast break points) and stays hot for 40 minutes, then UK might could fall apart.  If we're not getting the calls (like against Arkansas the other day--how many times did a Harrison get smacked straight in the face without a foul call in that game?), we're not hitting 3's, not getting into our transition defense or gambling too much on defense or if we just turn the ball over too many times to keep pace, then UK might get beat.

Yeah...I really don't see any of that happening.  This team is so beautiful to watch, they are so reliant on each other, opportunistic because they trust each other, they get hot because everybody wants each other to get hot and make plays and the talent and size are rich at every position.  They have way too much talent, size and depth to be over matched by anyone.  This team is so good defensively (there's no one out there that can fill it up against UK), that even though this is hardly a vintage offensive machine, they slow everyone else down to where they just naturally outscore everyone they play. And they really get up for the big games, which is why I had hoped for more rivalry games.

I'm not trying to be a gloater and I'll be crushed if the Cats lose but I don't think they're gonna lose.  I think they're gonna play their best basketball for the next 6 games and no one is gonna come close to hanging with them.  They're not gonna lose focus now, they're too close to getting it done.