2025 NCAA Final

Sweet Sixteen

Maryland 71-87 Florida

Not a shock. Maryland had some talent but I never thought they were a particularly cohesive crew. 

Arizona 93-100 Duke

Duke shot well, surprised the score was this close actually. 

Brigham Young 88-113 Alabama

I thought BYU had good upset potential in this game, but, man, Alabama shot the lights out early on and just kept the scoring too furious for BYU to keep up. If Alabama had played like this throughout, they would've won it all. 

Arkansas 83-85 (OT) Texas Tech

I didn't see this game but just watching the score tick by throughout, it feels like Arkansas worked pretty hard to lose this game. It even felt like they were gonna come back in OT and managed to gack it up anyway. Too bad, I really thought Arkansas had the array of talent needed to pull off some shockers. 

Michigan 65-78 Auburn

Michigan's offense was just too sludge-y to hang with Auburn.

Purdue 60-62 Houston

Purdue was the veteran squad, the defending runner-up, that everyone thought had upset potential. Houston is typically not an offenseive dynamo, indeed their strengths are similar to Purdue. I guess that's why this game went so deep. But Cougars got the W. 

Mississippi 70-73 Michigan State

Ole Miss was looking good early on, but they just couldn't sustain their offense and the Spartans slowly but surely took the lead and made it stand up.

Kentucky 65-78 Tennessee

UK was out of this game early, just couldn't get any offense going at all. The Vols were nice, certainly better, but the Cats had plenty of chances to get back in and just couldn't get buckets to hang. I was struck that all the curls, picks and movement that they employed so effectively against Illinois were not used here. Why not? Oh well. The Vols came to play and they played some rugged defense early on and established a clear lead early that they were able to ride out.  

Elite Eight

Texas Tech 79-84 Florida

Tech hung tough, put it on Florida but the Gators got buckets late and Walter Clayton was the hero. Good game, Tech was the better team for the most part but the Gators found another gear late and stole it. 

Alabama 65-85 Duke

Wow! I thought Alabama was one of the better teams this season and I thought they'd be a serious roadblock for Duke, but, man, Duke just pummeled them. Everyone was hitting shots and once the run began, the Tide got buried pronto and Duke cruised to the end. This was a towering performance by Duke--this is the moment where I just assumed Duke would win it all. 

Tennessee 50-69 Houston

Not surprised by the result, I figured Houston would get past whoever they faced here, but they suffocated the Vols early and this game was long over by halftime. The Vols were good this year, perhaps a little overhyped, and while I didn't think they'd win, I didn't figure they'd get stomped in this manner. A dominant performance by the Cougars.

Michigan State 64-70 Auburn

The Spartans put up a game effort but Auburn was better throughout and finished strong. Michigan State kept it close but I really felt like this game wanted to be a blowout. 

Final Four (all four #1 seeds for the first time since 2008; hardly any stunning upsets this year but it left the best of the best teams facing off at the end--turns out those are the best tourneys!)

Florida 79-73 Auburn

Auburn looked like the better team in the 1st half and built up a 12-point lead early in the 2nd half and it kinda felt like it was over. Then....Auburn did absolutely nothing from that point on and Florida was able to blast right through them. I thought Auburn was the single best team all season long (apologies to Duke, Houston and Florida) and the first 25 minutes or so of this game bore that out; but, then the scoring just completely stopped, Johni Broom never showed up, the hustle plays weren't effective any more and they spun their wheels badly down the stretch. Florida had been overcoming deficits all through the tourney, winning games late, so not a shock to see the Gators getting it done. But the Auburn collapse was so total, so complete that it made me wonder what I saw in them all year long.  

Houston 70-67 Duke

All year long Houston's MO was a team that just grinds opponents down with intense D, superior rebounding and a never-quit attitude. Duke had a nice lead at halftime and pretty much dominated the game for about 30 minutes. Then the Dukies went cold as ice and Houston just kept making plays. The final two minutes were a slow motion horror show for Duke fans as Houston just kept getting bucket after bucket, big steals, all the rebounds, a few lucky calls (*), and when the clock ran out, Houston had the lead. One of the most mystifying conclusions I've ever seen--but, then again, when Kentucky beat Duke early in the season, I remember being similarly shocked, since it never occurred to me that Duke was gonna lose. Duke was arguably the best team all year long but the ACC was so soft this year and it is worth noting that 2 of their losses (Kentucky, Kansas) were the high profile games that they just couldn't finish, so....maybe this fate was in the cards all along for the Blue Devils.  

Final

Florida 65-63 Houston

The Gators were able to do to the Cougars what Houston had just done to Duke. Well, sorta: whereas Duke snoozed through the last 10 minutes of the game thinking that their lead was good enough, here the Cougars just ran out of gas late and couldn't get buckets. Duke kinda stopped playing but Houston was just ineffective. Houston looked like the better team for most the game and when they hit an 8-point lead early in the 2nd half it felt like too much for the Gators to overcome--especially considering how little Walter Clayton had done up to that point. But Clayton got hot enough, Houston scuffled and the Gators made the plays down the stretch to steal it late--giving Houston a taste of their own medicine. Great W for the Gators, tough L for the Cougars, but the Cougars will be back next season, whereas I'm not sure about any of the rest of the Elite Eight.  

(*) Some will cite the over the back foul on Cooper Flagg in the final minute, but go back at look at the play. Houston got the rebound and had the lead with no shot clock remaining, thus a foul was actually the right move at that moment anyway. You may not have liked the call but it was cerainly not in and of itself a killer mistake or controversy.  

2025 NCAA Tournament (Sweet 16)

East

(6) BYU - (2) Alabama

(4) Arizona - (1) Duke

Duke came in as the #1 team in the land with the #1 NBA prospect (Cooper Flagg) and looked poised to do some damage. But they're not invincible, when the chips are down they rely a little too much on Flagg and the ACC was truly horrendous this year, so as good as they are, Duke is no guarantee to take it all. I didn't much care for Arizona this season, but they've got some veterans who should keep them in the game. Duke breezed through the last two rounds by building big leads and suffocating their opponents. If Arizona can keep pace with them early, they can hang with them late. But I think Duke is the better team and should advance. 

BYU was one of my darlings coming in, I just like the way they play and they're an unassuming batch of fellows, so when they get hot from the field or get their pressing defense going, I think they drive teams in shell shock. I like Alabama, I thought one of the best squads all season long. But outside of Ole Miss (still alive, by the way), they haven't played anyone quite like BYU. Alabama is the better team and should navigate this minefield, but I think BYU has a great shot at an upset here. 

Can BYU then go on to beat Duke? Again, if they can keep pace on the scoreboard, then yeah they absolutely can. Gotta go with Duke out of this bracket (but BYU is tantalizing). 

West

(4) Maryland - (1) Florida

(10) Arkansas - (3) Texas Tech

Florida is on a killer streak right now but I never really bought into them this season, was puzzled that so many thought of the Gators as the fave. The fact that they struggled mightily against a feisty but overmatched UConn side confirmed my thoughts that Florida is bit on the overhyped side. Maryland has had a nice season and seems to be most dangerous (and paradoxically most in danger) at the buzzer. If Florida comes out shooting well, they may roll right over the Terps, but if not, Maryland can absolutely steal this game. 

Arkansas! Not a gimmick, they are for real. Forget about their disappointing SEC play this year, this team is deep, loaded with veterans and prospects and their two-headed monster (Boogie Fland, DJ Wagner) give them plenty of attack. Make no mistake: Arkansas is the best of the four remaining teams in this bracket and playing their best basketball of the season.

I'll take Arkansas to win their next two games and book passage to the Final 4. 

South

(6) Mississippi - (2) Michigan State

(5) Michigan - (1) Auburn

Michigan State is nice but they flounder around instead of just finishing teams off and Ole Miss might be just the pesky foe they fear most. I do think the Spartans are better but will the play better on this night? Not sure. 

I think Auburn is the best team in the country. I think Michigan has trouble scoring in their half court set. I think this one is all Auburn.

And I'll take Auburn to finish the other side, too. 

Midwest

(3) Kentucky - (2) Tennessee

(4) Purdue - (1) Houston

Kentucky has already beaten the Vols twice this season and history shows that typically the 2-time winner wins the 3rd match, as well. The Vols are nice but they get a little hyper against the Wildcats, if they can shoot well and keep their pacing, they probably are the better team. But I'll go ahead and take the Wildcats to keep moving on. They're playing their best basketball right now and while this is a ragtag kinda squad, they've been strong against UT for a while now. 

Houston is the one flying under the radar.  All they do is win. I think they'll dispatch Purdue without much trouble and I think they'll grind down whichever SEC opponent they get on the other side. 

Informal ranking of the remaining teams:

1-4 - Auburn, Houston, Duke, Arkansas

5-8 - Alabama, BYU, Kentucky, Tennessee, 

9-12 - Florida, Michigan State, Mississippi, Maryland

13-16 - Texas Tech, Michigan, Arizona, Purdue

2022 Final Four & Championship

Games I watched:

(8) North Carolina 81-77 (2) Duke

Ohhhhhhhhh! What a pleasure to watch! Hell, yeah, I even left my house and went to the local Regal Beagle because I had to see this one. I'm a total sports nerd, watch sports of some kind just about every day, but it's been a while since I've felt this level of anticipation for a game. And the Tarheels did not let me down. I come not to praise Coach K but to bury him. (*) I would've preferred watching him lose to Kentucky, but, hey, a 2-game losing streak to UNC when he's got a team of 5 lottery picks was schadenfreude enough for me. As for this game, it was tight all the way through, Duke had moments when it looked like they might pull away but that never lasted long. UNC had a nice run right at the beginning of the 2nd half and though they weren't able to build a lead and hold it, it was enough to sustain them down to the final minute. And in the end, well, UNC got hot and Duke went cold. So long, Coach K, glad to see ya go (**). 

Other results:

(2) Villanova 65-81 (1) Kansas

Kansas scored the first 10 points and that was pretty much it, they carried a double digit lead for most of the rest of the game. When Villanova almost kinda came close to making a run, KU shut 'em down and closed it out. This Kansas team is strange: there is nothing dominant about them at all, this is not one of the more talented Jayhawk squads and there's cloud hanging over them (re: they're not likely to be allowed into next year's tourney). But they play good team defense and shoot well and they persevere, which has carried them all the way to the Final where they are the favorite (and were my pick to win it all). Nova made a good run, but this was not a classic Nova team by any means, either. Weird year in college b-ball, kinda makes sense that the semifinal was blue bloods, I reckon. 

The Final:

(8) North Carolina 69-72 (1) Kansas

Kinda bittersweet as a Kentucky fan: the Wildcats whomped the shit out of both of these teams this year, but they're here and the Wildcats aren't. To be fair: UNC is a totally different team now and KU just had a bad shooting night. (Oh, and on the Ladies' side, dominant champion South Carolina suffered only two losses all year long, the last one being to Kentucky...damn, so close and yet neither the boys nor the girls went deep this year)

Despite a 15 point lead at the half, the Tarheels could not keep the momentum going and the Jayhawks steadily pounded away and finished it off even after some dubious play down the stretch. Hey, I picked 'em to win so I can't be shocked that Kansas finished the tourney strong, but I still think this is one of the weirder champions after one of the weirder seasons that I can remember. 

(*) Blogspot wouldn't let me publish this post initially. Yes, I expressed my lifelong disdain for Duke but I wasn't in any way advocating any harm to anything Duke-related. But, well, I did perhaps go a little far in expressing a similar disdain for Bobby Knight and, yes, well, there was an anecdote that was probably worthy of being excised (all the darlings come and go). So, a coupla days later, I gotta say kudos to you, Blogspot. You were (probably) right and I was (probably) wrong but hey, man, college sports just brings it out of me in ways that the rest of planet Earth does not. Thank you, Blogspot, for curbing my weaker tendencies.

(**) Here's how I will always remember Coach K and his dukies. 

2022 NCAA Tournament Elite Eight

Games I watched (some of): 

(10) Miami 50-76 (1) Kansas

Kansas had trouble scoring early on and Miami used a nice mix of fast break points and 3-point shooting to control the 1st half. But in the 2nd half, Miami just stopped working for good shots, they settled, went cold and Kansas just flew past them. Miami had a nice run but they just weren't equipped to go 40 minutes in an Elite Eight game. This Kansas team is not a deeply talented team but they've got a good work ethic, they play good defense and they can score in bunches. Not a great team but an effective one and one that can still win it all. 

(15) St. Peter's 49-69 (8) North Carolina

Yeah, this one just wasn't happening. St. Peter's, which had looked so confident and tough so far, came out flat, while North Carolina came out on mission and this game was long over by halftime. St. Peter's came out confident and scored enough early on in their first three games to be able to implement their game plan and hang around beat teams, but that did not happen in this game. The Tarheels had a so-so year (though a W at Cameron Indoor is always positive) but they're in line to play Duke in the tourney for the first time ever--and it will be monstrous! UNC beat Kryschevasky in his final home game as the Duke coach and personally I would love to see them get the W in his last final four. We'll see.

Other results:

(5) Houston 44-50 (2) Villanova

Wow, super low scoring match. Villanova is a gut check kinda team, they don't falter. This doesn't seem like one of their more talented teams but they can hang. I was in on Houston but it seems like they just couldn't get buckets in this game. Can Villanova beat Kansas? Oh yeah, I'd say that game is a coin flip between two blue bloods that have gone further than they should have, 

(4) Arkansas 69-78 (2) Duke

Duke wore Arkansas down and the Razorbacks couldn't get their 3-point shooting going. Arkansas had a nice season, made a good run in the tourney and already picked up some big recruits for next year, so things are look in Fayetteville. Duke isn't a particularly deep team but their starting five (I'm a big fan of Jeremy Roach!) is really good, but really young. It seems fated for Coach K to win one on his way out the door, but I wouldn't start etching the plaque just yet. Good squad, but still has to win two more big games. 

2022 NCAA Tournament Sweet 16

Games I watched (some of):

(4) Arkansas 74-68 (1) Gonzaga

Well, the refs didn't do Gonzaga any favors (I thought all three 2nd half fouls on Chet Holmgren were lame and they missed a bunch of calls on the Razorbacks), but really it was Arkansas's scrappy defensive guard play that kept Gonzaga off balance all night. They took too long to get Drew Timme going and he just couldn't get it done by himself. I watched JD Notae a bit this year and that guy can get hot from downtown, didn't even think he was that great against Gonzaga (meaning Duke better watch out). Tough L for the Zags but they had their chances. Great W for the Razorbacks, they've got size and shooting, a great combo this time of year. 

(3) Texas Tech 73-78 (2) Duke

Good back and forth action but Duke made the shots down the stretch (man, Roach is that classic PG that was built for the tourney--shades of Mateen Cleeves) and Tech just couldn't hang. But until the last TV timeout, this was a really competitive game. Williams came up big for Duke and Banchero had some nice moments, too. On the Tech side, they played well just didn't hit the shots down the stretch and couldn't stop Roach from taking over (shades of Mateen Cleaves!). Also, I kinda loved Obanor, the guy plays with a lot of grit and does a little bit of everything, I haven't noticed him in any mock drafts, but I wouldn't be at all surprised to see that guy blowing up at Summer League this year. As for Banchero: oh, I get it, his game is Cade Cunningham....but I think Cade has more upside and is already better, suggesting to me that the 2022 draft isn't gonna be as good at the top as last year; we'll see. Tech played well but couldn't seal it, Duke tightened up when need be and that's a bad sign for everyone else. 

(15) St. Peter's 67-61 (3) Purdue

Frankly I thought Purdue kinda sucked. Back and forth 1st half, Purdue snatched the lead late and then went on a nice run early in the 2nd half. But that was pretty much it for the Boilermakers. Once St. Peter's got their offense going, I thought they cruised to the finish. The magnificent run of St. Peter's is still going and the lesson is clear: hey, man, the big schools are often times not as good as you think they are. (Also: Jaden Ivey (Purdue) is a concensus top 5 pick in the draft, some mocks have him #1 overall, but I gotta say....I don't see it. With, say, Trae Young a few years back, I doubted his ability to translate his game to the next level; but with Ivey, I don't see any mastery of any part of the game, he's got nice shoulder and a nice handle on the ball, but so what? I don't see him as a playmaker or a finisher or a dominant defender, so what does he do? He's a Moneyball-er: he looks like he ought to be a pro but that doesn't mean he has skills. We'll see)

(8) North Carolina 73-66 (4) UCLA

Fun game! I thought UCLA was the better team, the more complete team, but their scoring dried up in the 2nd half. Then when Caleb Love went off in the 2nd half, the Bruins kinda got buried. Oh well, we've seen this Tarheel team beat Duke this year, but I really thought UCLA was better built to give the Dukies a for-real match. We'll see.

Other results:

(11) Michigan 63-55 (2) Villanova

Sounds about right. I thought Michigan was playing a bit above themselves lately and Villanova was ready for a convincing win. 

(5) Houston 72-60 (1) Arizona

I think Houston is one to keep an eye on. This was an interesting season in that there were no great teams at the top (unless you thought Gonzaga was the real deal) and Arizona struck me as suspect the whole time. Likewise, there were a bunch of 2nd tier teams that could win it all if they get hot at the right time and it looks like the Cougars are one of those squads. 

(4) Providence 61-66 (1) Kansas

Low scoring affair early on, kinda ballooned up some points down the stretch. Kansas seemed to control throughout.

(11) Iowa State 56-70 (10) Miami

Miami was up at halftime, kinda dominated the 2nd half. Two nice teams, feels like Miami just had the better/deeper talent.

2022 NCAA Tournament (Day Four)

Games I saw (some of): 

(5) Houston 68-53 (4) Illinois

Toss up of a game. Houston's wing scoring was ultimately more effective than Illinois's inside bully ball (why isn't Kofi Cockburn higher in the mock drafts? This kid is a monster that can obviously bang with big bodies). Illinois just didn't have the balance in their attack and Houston was pretty successful at swamping Cockburn down low. Houston had a nice offensive onslaught before the 8-minute timeout to pretty much finish off this match.

(7) Ohio State 61-71 (2) Villanova

Buckeyes kept pace for a while but Nova was just better. 

(7) Michigan State 76-85 (2) Duke

Fun game! Every time you thought Duke had taken control, the Spartans would come roaring back and this game was close into the final minute. State actually took the lead late but couldn't sustain it and Duke slipped away. This Duke squad has a lot of talent but they're young, on any given night they could get taken out. 

Other results:

(11) Iowa State 54-49 (3) Wisconsin

There were whispers of Wisconsin's overrated-ness all season long, looks like it finally got to them even though they were close to home. Good luck to Iowa State, so far so good. 

(11) Notre Dame 53-59 (3) Texas Tech

Tech has been a top ten team for most of the season, are they gearing up for a deeper run?

(10) Miami 79-61 (2) Auburn

Auburn has a lot of talent but not a lot of energy, looks like it caught up with them here. Miami is having a nice tourney and they're up against Iowa State next, some Cinderella-on-Cinderella crime is about to go down.  

(6) Texas 71-81 (3) Purdue

I haven't been as impressed with Purdue as I feel like I'm supposed to be, we'll see how far they get. 

(9) Texas Tech 80-85 (OT) (1) Arizona

Saw none of this, looks like a top seed got pushed to the limit. TCU had a nice little run in this tourney, wonder if it's something they can build on. Is this an indicator that Arizona is vulnerable or do they have renewed confidence?

2022 NCAA Tournament (Day Three)

Games I watched (some of):

(8) North Carolina 93-86 (OT) (1) Baylor

Fun game! The Tar Heels jumped out to a mighty lead thanks to a bust out performance from Manek (yipes! That kid was doing everything!). But when he got booted (meh, it was clearly a foul worthy of a technical but I thought a straight red card was not warranted), even though they were up by 25 (67-42, if I'm not mistaken) with less then 10 mins to go, UNC suddenly lost all shape, had no intensity on offense, kept getting unlucky calls, and Baylor stormed back to take the game to OT. But then, for whatever reason, Baylor couldn't keep the momentum. It's not uncommon to see a team come back, come close and then falter, but Baylor had this game won, I don't understand why they couldn't seal it. But great W for North Carolina. 

(9) Creighton 72-79 (1) Kansas

Good game, but I never thought Kansas was in any real danger. Creighton shot well and kept pace, pushing Kansas all the way. But Kansas had more talent, minimized turnovers and got it done. Actually, an impressive win for the top seed, I'd say, the kind of game that reminds the big dog that they need to keep working to win. I picked Kansas to win it all and I'm sticking with that. 

(11) Michigan 76-68 (3) Tennessee

Tennessee struck me as the better team but Michigan kept the scoring up and the Vols' offense became unreliable late. Good W for the Wolverines (5th straight Sweet 16). 

(15) St. Peter's 70-60 (7) Murray State

This was an even more impressive performance to me than beating Kentucky. I've watched enough Kentucky this year to know their weaknesses and I just assumed St. Peter's just settled on the right game plan. But St. Peters' ability to keep the lane open allows them to drive to the basket at will, while on the other end they clog the lane so effectively--they control both ends of the floor by doing the exact opposite, they're really pretty amazing. They make their opponents take hard shots and give them no chance at second chance opportunities, while opening up their own attacking options on the other end. If they can do this four more times, they can beat anybody (probably not Duke or Gonzaga but everyone else needs to be worried!). Good season for Murray State but they just couldn't get enough easy buckets to keep up. 

Other results:

(12) Richmond 51-79 (4) Providence

Looks like Richmond was never really in this match. 

(5) St. Mary's 56-72 (4) UCLA

UCLA played a well balanced game, kept the scoring up throughout, good W. 

(12) New Mexico State 48-53 (4) Arkansas

Hmmmm....not a lot of scoring in this one. Not sure what that portends for Arkansas. 

(9) Memphis 78-82 (1) Gonzaga

Tigers really made the Zags work in this one. Drew Timme took over down the stretch and sealed this for Gonzaga. This was a good test for the Zags and they overcame it, that's a good sign for their chances. 

2022 NCAA Tournament (Day Two)

Games I watched (some of):

(10) Loyola Chicago 41-54 (7) Ohio State

Ohio State didn't blow me away but Loyola just didn't have enough offense to keep up.

(15) Delaware 60-80 (2) Villanova

Took Nova a little while to get going but a nice run before halftime got them going and they dominated the second half.

(15) CSU Fullerton 61-78 (2) Duke

Fullerton made them work for while but Duke was never really challenged. Getting free samples of Banchero before the draft made it worth watching. 

(10) Davidson 73-74 (7) Michigan State

Fun game! Back and forth, every time it felt like someone was gonna take the upper hand, the other team would come charging back. Even down to the end, the Spartans had to sweat it out.

Other results:

(15) Jacksonville State 61-80 (2) Auburn

Auburn is a problematic squad but they definitely have enough to hold off the fightin' Deions.

(14) Montana State 62-97 (3) Texas Tech

Look like Tech brought the gun to the knife fight.

(14) Yale 56-78 (3) Purdue

Purdue is shaping up to be the dark horse, right?

(10) Miami 68-66 (7) Southern Cal

Looked like a fun one. 

(11) Notre Dame 78-64 (6) Alabama

Bama was weird all year long, a lot of talent but no consistency. Looks like the Irish drew the right opponent. 

(11) Virginia Tech 73-81 (6) Texas

I don't know either of these teams, so I have no way to judge UT's W.  

(13) Chattanooga 53-54 (4) Illinois

Saw none of the game but the highlights were intriguing: Illinois didn't get their first lead until the final minute and sweated out a final shot that could've won it for the Mocs. Game effort from Chattanooga but just a bit short. 

(11) Iowa State 59-54 (6) Louisiana State

LSU had their moments this year but faltered into controversy going into the tourney (for some reason I had them going to the Sweet 16, not sure what I was thinking, this one looks pretty obvious in hindsight). No idea about Iowa State.

(16) Wright State 70-87 (1) Arizona

Yeah, sounds about right. 

(12) Alabama-Birmingham 68-82 (5) Houston

I think Houston could be ready to make a run.

(14) Colgate 60-67 (3) Wisconsin

Feels like Colgate probably should've pulled this one out but went cold late. 

(9) Texas Christian 69-42 (8) Seton Hall

Looks like Seton Hall couldn't generate much offense. 

2022 NCAA Tournament (Day One)

Games I watched (some of):

(11) Michigan 75-63 (6) Colorado State

Man, both teams played so fast! And the refs let them beat on each other. CSU came out hot but they just couldn't sustain and once Michigan got going, they eventually wore them down. I was impressed with CSU's David Roddy, good footwork, good hustle, not so effective from 3, but an interesting prospect going forward (NFL and NBA, for that matter). 

(14) Longwood 56-88 (3) Tennessee

Not much to say on this one: Tennessee is good and Longwood just couldn't hang. This game was over pretty quick. Michigan up next, feels like UT is better, but we'll see. 

(15) St. Peter's 85-79 (OT) (2) Kentucky

Bracket buster! This is why we love the tourney! This game highlighted UK's weakness all season long: 3 point shooting. When the Cats shot well they won and when they didn't (like tonight) they lost. In short, this is how Kentucky was always going to lose--I just didn't think it would happen in the 1st round! St. Peter's did a good job of keeping Tshiebwe and Brooks out of the lane and it was the fact that UK couldn't get their defense in order that led to poor shot selection on the offensive end. That said, it was going 23-35 from the line that doomed UK: even as bad as their defense was and even as bad as their 3-point shooting was, Kentucky still had plenty of opportunities to seal this victory. Throw in that the refs got weird in the 2nd half (I thought they lost the shape of the game and just randomly called contact), which should've benefitted UK and this becomes an even more disappointing L for the Wildcats. It is worth remembering that UK sucked last year and there was no tournament the year before, so even though this was a 'veteran' squad, there was no tournament experience on this team. (As a UK fan, I feel bad for Oscar Tshiebwe, I know the NBA is not excited about the next Andre Drummond, but rebounding is still a part of the game and he's really fuckin' good at it. But, buck up Kentucky fans: Murray State has a legit path to the Sweet 16 now!) Great W for St. Peter's, though to be honest: I don't think they're particularly good, they simply had a game plan perfect for this Kentucky squad. 

(10) San Francisco 87-92 (OT) (7) Murray State

Back and forth action, neither team could ever quite get the upper hand. Murray hit the big shots down the stretch and that was the difference. 

Other results:

(13) South Dakota State 57-66 (4) Providence

Close game in the final minute but Providence got it done.

(9) Memphis 64-53 (8) Boise State

Looked like a blowout early on but Boise State cut into the lead late before Memphis iced the game. 

(16) Norfolk State 49-85 (1) Baylor

Yeah, sounds about right.

(12) Richmond 67-63 (5) Iowa

Bracket buster! Saw none of this game, wish I had.  

(16) Georgia State 72-93 (1) Gonzaga

Keeping an eye on the score throughout the game made this feel like a close game til the last few minutes. Digging into the stats: Gonzaga went 16-30 from the line and that's how a #1 seed keeps a game close. But on the upside for the Zags: Chet Holmgren had 19 pts on 8-13 FGs, 17 boards, 7 blocks, 5:0 asst:to. Nice but let's see how it goes against someone besides a #16 seed. 

(9) Marquette 63-95 (8) North Carolina

Dang! Tarheels came to play today. This was a thorough thrashing. 

(12) New Mexico State 70-63 (5) Connecticut

*ahem* Didn't bust my bracket. New Mexico State is a good team with some real talent, whereas UConn is coming into the tourney a tad overrated. 

(12) Indiana 53-82 (5) St. Mary's

Saw none of this game but as the score was going by Indiana was stuck on 33 for what seemed like forever (about 4.5 minutes of game time, to be exact), while St. Mary's just kept adding points. I was beginning to think the scoreboard was broken!

(9) Creighton 72-69 (OT) (8) San Diego State

Coin flip game, went to OT, sounds about right. 

(13) Vermont 71-75 (4) Arkansas

This looks like it was a good one, two feisty squads. 

(13) Akron 53-57 (4) UCLA

Akron gave the Bruins a run and while last year's UCLA squad could run up the points, not so sure about this year's version. 

(16) Texas Southern 56-83 (1) Kansas

Good opener for the Jayhawks. 

2021 NCAA Elite Eight (Day Two)

 (6) Southern Cal 66-85 (1) Gonzaga

Southern Cal had the worst opening 5 mins imaginable and the game was pretty much over by the first TV timeout. All the talk was of Southern Cal's great big men but they didn't get going at all, nor did USC shoot well, defend well, etc. Felt like Gonzaga might get a scare here but the only real danger is they win too huge and TV ratings falter, otherwise they're in good shape. 

(11) UCLA 51-49 (1) Michigan

Michigan had many chances down the stretch and could not buy a basket in the final minute. Felt like Michigan was the better team throughout but too many unforced errors kept UCLA (re: Juzang) in the game. Juzang was great, not sure I got much else from UCLA. Their sludgy defensive style kept Michigan from developing much attack but outside of Juzang, UCLA has no attack at all. For years the NBA Spurs were the model of efficiency, night in night out their average was better than everyone else's average and they beat most everyone just by being better than everyone; their one weakness was an expectedly great performance--a statistical anomaly--by one individual star (Shaq, Dirk, Chris Paul, for example). Is Juzang enough to upset Gonzaga all by himself? (I don't see it happening; but I am shocked and amazed that Juzang isn't rocketing up the NBA draft mocks--are you nuts? This kid is a top 5 pick!)

2021 Sweet 16 (Day One)

(12) Oregon State 65-58 (8) Loyola-Chicago

I stand by how great Loyola actually is because of this stat: 5-23 from 3. Jeez, if anyone even gets kinda hot at any point, this is an entirely different game--look how bad Loyola had to shoot to lose this game! Loyola's D was frustrating the Beavers at first but eventually Loyola's lack of offense more or less evened things out and Oregon State was able to get a firm grasp on the game. Check out my man Krutwig's offensive line: 12 FGA, 2 FTA, 4 offensive rebounds, 4 assists....zero turnovers, zero personal fouls; but this shows how the giant Silva was able to keep Krutwig in check: he should've taken a lot more shots, had a lot more assists and a lot more turnovers. You can see that Oregon State was successful at keeping Krutwig bottled up, whereas he was the center of the offense in the previous round. Oh well, Cameron Krutwig had a great tournament--better than will ever be noticed by humanity--but Sweet 16 is as far as it took him. Oregon State continues on a great run lately, I definitely give them a puncher's chance against Houston.

(5) Villanova 51-62 (1) Baylor

Baylor is just better than Villanova and that depth won out. Close game for 30 mins or so, Baylor rose up and stifled Villanova in the last 10 mins and as Villanova piled up turnovers, Baylor sealed the victory. 

(15) Oral Roberts 70-72 (3) Arkansas

Fun match, back and forth at the end, Oral Roberts had the lead for a long stretch of this game, then Arkansas came back and stole it late. Really impressive run for Oral Roberts (Abmas and Obanor--yipes!) but Arkansas is a nice team and they did what needed to be done. Baylor has the depth, can Arkansas keep up? 

(11) Syracuse 46-62 (2) Houston

The Orangemen did not get hot from the outside and basically flailed from beginning to end. Houston casually dominated the game, which still gives little suggestion of who they really are. Oh well, Houston keeps winning, can't front on that. But Oregon State has been beating good teams without a second thought for the last month or so. 

2021 NCAA Tourney (Sweet 16)

(5) Villanova v (1) Baylor

Baylor is deep and talented at every position; if anyone can knock them off, you'd think a Hall of Fame coach (like, Jay Wright, for example) would the be the logical choice. But I don't think this 'Nova team has enough to outlast Baylor. 

(15) Oral Roberts v (3) Arkansas

Oral Roberts has been hanging around but Arkansas can run and score and doesn't seem as likely to fall prey to the underdog as Florida or Ohio State. Love Abmas and Obanor, but I think it ends here for Oral Roberts. 

(I'll take Baylor over Arkansas)

(12) Oregon St v (8) Loyola-Chicago

I know I got hyperbolic in the immediate aftermath of Loyola's drubbing of Illinois....so a week later...I still think Loyola is arguably the best team in this tourney and as nice as Oregon State has played, I don't think they have a chance against Loyola. I don't even think Loyola has to play their best game to win this game. 

(11) Syracuse v (2) Houston

Normally a #2 seed would look up and see nothing but underdogs ahead and feel pretty good about themselve, but honestly I'm not sure I'd rank Houston in the top 3 out of this bracket. If Syracuse hits 3's, they will beat Houston. Houston isn't bad but they're not particularly special either, I think Syracuse can take them. 

(I'll take Loyola-Chicago over Syracuse)

(5) Creighton v (1) Gonzaga

Gonzaga is the best team in the land and I haven't seen anything from Creighton that makes me think they can beat Gonzaga. 

(6) Oregon v (7) Southern Cal 

Oregon plays fast, if they're making shots, they'll roll. If Southern Cal can slow Oregon down, then they can hang and steal it. We'll see. This one is a tossup...I'll say...Trojans...?

(I'll take Gonzaga over....either team)

(4) Florida St v (1) Michigan

Michigan is getting themselves right again, nice win over LSU (a team not dissimilar to Florida St), and I gotta feel like they're gonna find a way to get past the Seminoles. That said, Florida St. is not gonna be an easy out, this is probably the best game of the Sweet 16 slate. I'll take the Wolverines. 

(11) UCLA v (2) Alabama

Should be a high scoring, fast paced, score-fest. Okay, I'm ready. Alabama has been playing high tempo all season long, feels like UCLA is just now figuring themselves out. I wouldn't be shocked to see an upset but I'll take Alabama. 

(I'll take Alabama over Michigan)

The six tiers of the Sweet 16:

1) Gonzaga

2) Loyola-Chicago, Baylor

3) Michigan, Alabama

4) Florida State, Arkansas, Houston, Oral Roberts

5) Oregon/Southern Cal, UCLA, Syracuse

6) Oregon State, Creighton, Villanova

2018-19 NCAA Final Four

Texas Tech 75-69 Gonzaga

Tech plays some good D, they're sneaky good with the ball and when they're hitting 3's, they're pretty goddamn good. That said, I still thought this was Gonzaga's L more than Tech's W. Gonzaga's offense just spun in circles throughout the 2nd half after a pretty good opening. I think it was less about Tech's defense, which was fine, and more about Tech's offense being able to keep pace in a way that caught the Zags off guard. Gonzaga should've won this game, they were the better team but their offense fell off and ground to a halt right as Tech made its move. Tech moves on, but again: they caught Michigan unable to knock down shots and then Gonzaga unable to put together a consistent game, so is Tech really this good or are they just catching bad nights from superior teams? Tech certainly doesn't suck, they deserve to be here, but its still hard to tell how good they really are and if they're really capable of giving Michigan State a game. We'll see.

Purdue 75-80 (OT) Virginia

Good game! Purdue's Carsen Edwards was money all night and he alone kept Purdue's offense afloat in this game, where Virginia shot well but didn't exactly play their best defense. Back and forth action, both teams raining 3's, felt like Purdue was gonna close it out, but UVA tied it up late on a full court pass and amazing finish (wow! That pass and finish should become one of the iconic images of the tourney for years to come, especially if UVA wins it all). In OT, Purdue kinda ran out of gas and Virginia pounced on their chance. Good W for Virginia, gotta feel bad for Purdue who had this one in their grasp.

Auburn 77-71 (OT) Kentucky

As a Cats fan this one was frustrating. If UK makes their free throws, they win this game easily. Auburn was already deep in foul trouble before halftime, felt like the opportunity was there for UK to exploit that with their size down low, methodically send all of Auburn's players to the bench, make free throws and salt this game away. But instead Auburn was able to get easy shots in the lane over and over again (how? UK's size advantage was massive) and Kentucky just couldn't figure out how to counter. Auburn's MO all year long has been their 3-point shooting but that's not what won this game for them, here they were more effective at knocking down 15 footers and getting to the foul line. And even as poorly as Kentucky played, they were able to get the game into OT, where they had chances to control the action. Yeah, I know this sounds bitchy but Kentucky really should've won this game and while Auburn played really well, even that was predicated on Kentucky failing to take advantage of their size. (Still don't understand the mock drafts: how are you watching this UK team and thinking that Keldon Johnson has more upside than PJ Washington? Based on what?)

Michigan State 68-67 Duke

Fun game! Duke had been playing with fire all through this tournament to the point where you wondered whether they would eventually get burned or that they were so destined to win it all that it didn't even matter if they played shaky. It was the former. Duke had been leaving the door open and Michigan State was the one that stole it late: nailed the big shots when they had to and kept Zion away from the ball for the last few minutes and that was it. This Duke team was wildly unbalanced, that #1 recruiting class was all by themselves out there and the tourney struggles finally caught up to them. This Michigan State team is not flashy or wildly talented but they're deep and well-disciplined and PG Cassius Winston controls the ball as well as anyone I've seen in this tourney. I think they're the team to beat from here.


Final four:
Auburn - Virginia (-5.5)

Same as ever for Auburn: if they're hitting 3's, they can beat anyone; but if they're not, they can lose to anyone. That said, that game plan really only played out against North Carolina: Kansas was not at full strength and frankly Auburn handled them pretty easily and Kentucky was a familiar opponent (those division/conference teams make for anything-can-happens kinda contests) who bungled their chances to put Auburn away. But against UNC, Auburn scored, scored, scored and buried the Tar Heels in a way that could happen again to UVA. And UVA's defense does kinda allow that to happen: they dominate the top of the lane but can be beat over the top from the wings. I think Virginia has enough offense to counter Auburn's scoring and keep from getting buried. I like Virginia to play solid defense, knock down enough perimeter shots to match Auburn's attack and to hit their free throws down the stretch and pull away late. I like Virginia to win and cover.

Texas Tech - Michigan State (-3)
These are two workmanlike teams that have done what they needed to do to get this far. Tech will lock down the lane on defense, but I like State's chances to drive and kick (which Michigan couldn't do at all against this Tech squad) and to maintain their consistency in the 2nd half (which Gonzaga couldn't do either). Tech will stay close, they're savvy, they play together and I think they'll knock down enough shots to keep this one close throughout and I think they'll even have a chance to win it late. But I like Winston to keep his cool and make plays throughout that give State the upper hand. I think this one goes right down to the final play. I'll take State to win, but I like Tech to keep it close.

2018-19 NCAA Elite Eight

Oregon 49-53 Virginia
Again: Virginia's stifling defense turns games into soccer matches where the paucity of scoring can keep the outcome in doubt even when it feels like the Cavs are dominating. I liked Oregon, they played with spunk and knocked down shots but Virginia had the better talent and the game plan to weather the storm.

Purdue 99-94 (OT) Tennessee
Tennessee had a really strange run in this tourney: dominating half of each of their games and getting blown out in the other halves. So even though Purdue built a dominant lead in the 2nd half, the Vols were able to rally and send it into OT. But they ran out of gas and Purdue squelched them out fairly easily in the extra frame. Good performance from the Boilermakers, I think they'll give Virginia a good run.

Florida State 58-72 Gonzaga

Gonzaga generally led all the way through but State kept hanging around making this a compelling match. Felt like Gonzaga had the talent and the teamwork to win but the Seminoles hung tight (until about the last TV timeout), so despite the lopsided final score, this was still a tight game with about 5 minutes left. Gonzaga persevered and got it done like a top squad should. 

Texas Tech 63-44 Michigan
Well, the Wolverines picked an unfortunate time to have their worst game of the year. They shot so poorly early on that it just killed their offense for the whole night allowing Tech's zone defense to stifle any chance to get a drive-kick offense going, so the hole for the Wolverines just kept getting deeper. Tech was fine but this was about Michigan's inability to score (1-19 from 3 and that single make was the final basket of the game), so it's kinda hard to tell how well Tech will stack up against Gonzaga.

LSU 63-80 Michigan State
In the 1st half State shot the ball really well, never turned it over and got every rebound--the fact that LSU was only down 12 seemed miraculous to me!  State held a healthy lead throughout but LSU did hang around and kinda kept it closer than it should've been (yes, 17 was closer than it should've been!). LSU had a good season and a good run through the tourney but they overachieved and a thumping loss to end it all was preordained. State looks solid.

Virginia Tech 73-75 Duke
All I saw was the last few minutes but Tech had their chances to take it and just couldn't convert in the final minute. Duke has the best 2 players in the tournament but that's all they've got, so they're still very much in the hunt to win it all but we'll see if that lack of depth catches up to them.

Auburn 97-80 North Carolina
Yup: Auburn got hot and won big despite losing their leading scorer (Okeke) to a gruesome injury late in the game (weird looking injury: not sure what happened to him but he was clearly in some pain). North Carolina had been playing really well and if they'd stymied Auburn's outside shooting they would've won but once the tide turned on them they were powerless.

Houston 58-62 Kentucky
I really thought Kentucky was the better team but they had a stretch of bad possessions in the 2nd half that made it necessary for PJ Washington (*) to rip the cast off his leg and make plays to seal the W. Houston had an indomitable performance from Corey Davis (man, they kid attacked, attacked, attacked!) but foul trouble and spotty shooting kept them from taking full advantage of Kentucky's anemic offense in the 2nd half.


Elite Eight
Purdue-Virginia (-4.5)
Virginia plays a rigidly disciplined game plan built around stifling defense designed to suck the will out of their opponents; if they had an efficient offense to go with this, they'd be lights out every year, but they don't. And because they sometimes struggle to score, it gives hope to opponents that ought to be frustrated beyond belief. I think Purdue is not dissimilar but they've got an inside-out offense that can generate points from the perimeter--which could be the death blow to Virginia. Both teams rebound well so this game will be about FG% especially from beyond the arc. I think Purdue has a better chance to get hot from outside which should make all the difference. I'll take Purdue in a low scoring contest to win and cover.

Texas Tech-Gonzaga (-4)
I don't know either of these teams that well but my gut says that Gonzaga is the better team with a better sense of self and they've played better teams to get here. Tech has done what they've needed to do but Ohio State and Michigan don't have the talent up top, depth on the back end or game plan that Gonzaga has. I think Gonzaga takes this one fairly easily.

Auburn-Kentucky (-3)
Kentucky has already beaten Auburn twice this season (actually that was Auburn's last L) but the two games were so different that they're not terribly predictive here (except that in both of those games neither side was at full strength which does mirror this contest, as well). The bottom line is if Auburn is coming in without Okeke and Kentucky is coming in with Washington, then it will require an all time 3-point game to pull this out for Auburn to pull this out. Auburn is capable of doing that but I feel like Kentucky is ready for a big Keldon Johnson game and this could be it. I'll take Kentucky to win and cover.

Michigan State-Duke (-1.5)
College basketball, man: Duke has struggled late in two straight games against weaker opponents, so against a top flight squad that's playing well now, they'll finally meet their match, right? Ehh, maybe. Just as likely State gets off to a bad start, Duke's bench comes in and drains 3's and the game's a Blue Devil blowout by halftime. State has had a workmanlike season, started kinda slow, had a bad stretch in the middle of the conference schedule but has built nicely toward the end and is playing really good right now. Duke has been really good all season but somehow not as dominant as it feels like they could've been and has struggled mightily in their last two tournament games. I think State is the deeper team, the more defined team and the team playing better right now. I wouldn't be surprised to see Zion and Barrett blow up but I think State can endure their onslaught and control the ball better. I'll take Michigan State to win and cover.


(*) All season long in mock drafts I've seen Washington pegged as a mid-2nd rounder and I don't get it at all! Good size, good ball handler, scores from all over, smart player, carried a top ten team for long stretches of the season, then plays through pain to make the difference in a tournament game--what more are scouts looking for? I like Keldon Johnson as much as the next guy (he kinda disappeared in this game) but if he's a top ten pick then Washington is a top five pick!

2018-19 NCAA Sweet Sixteen

Coming into this tournament it seemed plain that there were 8 teams better than everyone else: I'd rank them Duke, Gonzaga, Virginia, Michigan State, North Carolina, Tennessee, Kentucky, Michigan. All are still alive, with Duke getting a serious scare from Central Florida (who played the game of their lives) and Kentucky getting a minor scare from Wofford (tricky little team actually). Throw in that the second tier (Texas Tech, Purdue, Florida State, Houston, LSU, Virginia Tech) was solid as well, then the fact that this particular Sweet Sixteen is the highest ranked of all time should not come as a shock to anyone and unless you were betting on serious upsets, no one's bracket is all that busted just yet. Throw in that the two interlopers (Oregon, Auburn) were both ranked in the pre-season top 25 and both just won their conference tourneys, well, this is as chalky as the Flint, Michigan water supply. Now we're ready for some upsets and some god damn good ball games!

EAST
Duke (-8) v Virginia Tech
Tech beat Duke earlier this year in their only meeting so though Duke is loaded with a crop of dudes already vying for next year's NBA Rookie of the Year Award, I expect Tech to come in heads up and balls out. We've seen Duke's fatal flaw already: Zion and Barrett are two of the best players in all of college basketball but the rest of that roster is not so impressive. If Tech can force Duke into plumbing their minimal depth, then an upset would be in the offing. Though Duke really is thin on the backside, I expect Zion and Barrett to have big games (and get all the calls) and cruise into the next round. I'll take Duke to win but Tech to cover.

LSU v Michigan State (-6.5)
LSU is a scrappy team that figures out how to win games late; being the favorite in the SEC tournament doomed them, however, because they're not a strong frontrunner type, rather they are a dangerous underdog type. Now they're back in the underdog role and I expect them to give Michigan State a helluva challenge. State is solid all over, not great at anything but not bad at anything either. If they play their best they should be better than LSU (who are playing with an interim coach and having recently suffered the death of one of their rotation players). This game will be fun for the first 35 minutes, whoever takes over late will steal it. I'll go with Michigan State to win but LSU to cover (oh, don't be surprised if this one goes to OT).


WEST
Gonzaga (-6.5) v Florida State
This is a rematch of last year's Sweet Sixteen match where Florida State blitzed Gonzaga to advance (only to lose to Michigan, who may await again). Gonzaga has won so far by playing their game: inside-out with bigs that can handle the ball and guards that never turn the ball over. State has won by scoring with great efficiency down low (and weathering the breakout of Ja Morant). This game will be a battle down low and I think foul trouble might make the difference, whoever is getting the calls will probably win the game. I dunno....I'll take Gonzaga, I just think there's more star power there and they'll get the breaks. Gonzaga to win and cover.

Michigan (-2) v Texas Tech
Michigan is really good on the perimeter, Tech is better down low. I think Michigan will need to hit 3's to win. Tech will need to slow the pace and score efficiently. Tough call, I'll go with Michigan to win and cover.


SOUTH
Virginia (-8) v Oregon
Oregon is on a ten game winning streak but the Pac-12 was not too inspiring this year and beating Wisconsin and UC-Irvine to get here is not blowing me away either. Virginia's grinding defense is dangerous in that they sometimes forget to score and can be bested by a relatively mediocre offensive output from their opponent. That said, I think UVA will be successful at controlling the tempo and scoring enough to comfortably win. I'll take Virginia to win and cover (in what will likely be the softest game of the Sweet Sixteen).

Purdue v Tennessee (-1)
This is tough to call because both of these squads are so unpredictable: capable of playing letter perfect games and capable of disappearing in the moment. Purdue won a share of the Big Ten regular season title but their out of conference schedule is kinda disappointing; I'm actually more impressed by Tennessee's 2nd place finish in the SEC because the SEC was unusually good this year and a win over Gonzaga, two wins over Kentucky and a hard fought L to Kansas suggest they've worked harder to get here than Purdue. In the tournament, Purdue made short work of Old Dominion and Villanova while Tennessee struggled with Colgate and Iowa. My gut is that Tennessee is the better team but I feel like Purdue is playing better right now. I'll take Purdue to win and cover. 


MIDWEST
North Carolina (-5.5) v Auburn
UNC was kinda up-and-down for most of the year but they're in a real groove right now. Coby White has emerged as for-real baller and he's leading a balanced team with good depth. Auburn is a 3-point shooting team that can beat anyone if they're hitting and lose to anyone if they're not. This game has the potential to turn into a blowout--for either team!--I'll think we'll know by halftime how this game will turn out. While it is certainly possible for Auburn to shock the Heels, I gotta go with North Carolina to win and cover. 

Houston v Kentucky (-2.5)
Houston put up gaudy numbers in their conference but outside of nice W's over Oregon and LSU, they have not played anyone as good as Kentucky this year. If Kentucky had PJ Washington (which I'm assuming they won't), then I would take Kentucky to easily win because I just think they'd enough scoring inside and out to outrun Houston. But since UK will likely be without their best scorer, this game becomes a real toss-up. I'll go with Kentucky (but only because I bleed blue) to win, Houston to cover.


So my potential Elite Eight:
Duke v Michigan State
I think Duke has the better talent but State is the better team. I'd take Michigan State.

Gonzaga v Michigan
This is the game we did NOT get last year. I think Gonzaga is the deeper team and the team ready to move on, I'd take Gonzaga.

Virginia v Purdue
Virginia is rolling right now, I just don't think Purdue could hang with them. I'd take Virginia.

North Carolina v Kentucky
UK beat them earlier this year but UNC is a much better team now and if UK doesn't have PJ Washington, I just don't see how they could hang. I'd take North Carolina.


Of these Sweet Sixteen games, only Virginia over Oregon seems like a lock to me. UNC-Auburn could end up being a runaway (depending on Auburn's 3pt%) but all the other games should be fascinating and down to the wire. The first weekend was kinda anti-climactic but that just makes this weekend all the more captivating.

NCAA Sweet Sixteen

Coming into this tourney I thought there was a clear top tier in college basketball (with their pre-season rankings): Gonzaga (#14), Kansas (#3), Villanova (#4), Duke (#1), North Carolina (#6), UCLA (#16), Kentucky (#2), Louisville (#13). And a clear 2nd tier: Baylor (NR), Arizona (#10), Florida State (#28), Oregon (#5), Purdue (#15), Butler (#33), West Virginia (#20), Florida (#37). (How was Baylor not ranked in the pre-season top 50?)

I thought going in that the opening weekend would be pretty mellow on upsets but then the Sweet Sixteen on would be an all-time classic demolition derby.  I was kinda close: Villanova, Duke, Louisville and Florida State forgot to make the trip but all the rest are here. And on any given day, any one of those teams above can win it all (or get run out of the gym). Of the interlopers: Wisconsin (#9) and Michigan (#42) just met in the Big 10 Championship, South Carolina (NR) bounced in and out of the top 25 all year long and Xavier (#7) was a pre-season top 10 squad that suffered some untimely injuries but played a tough schedule. So none of the 'Cinderellas' are particularly out of left field.

Who comes out alive? I filled out two brackets and ended up with two entirely different Final Fours, so the difference between the remaining teams is minimal, man. I think all eight games are interesting match-ups.

Wisconsin-Florida: Wisconsin played grind it out defense, Florida plays crank it up offense. If Florida is hot I think they'll win but if they can't get going Wisconsin will swallow them up. I suspect Florida is the better team.  

Baylor-South Carolina: Baylor is not terribly flashy but they're a consistent team, they're gonna grind their way through this game the way they do every other game and they should be better than South Carolina. I loved the way Carolina finished off Duke: they stepped up and made their free throws. Every coach needs to whip out the last 10 minutes of that game to show the importance of fundamental basketball. If South Carolina can score as efficiently as they did against Duke, then they can sneak past Baylor, who has a solid average but probably won't hit home runs. I'll take Baylor.

Gonzaga-West Virginia: Gonzaga is arguably the best team in the nation this season: reliable down low, explosive on the perimeter, they have veteran smarts and good athletes. But West Virginia plays a tricky irritating defense that catches even the steadiest squads off guard. I think Gonzaga is the better team and should win the game but a West Virginia upset would not surprise me.

Xavier-Arizona: I don't really know either of these teams, haven't watched Xavier at all. I watched Arizona over St. Mary's and for the most part I was impressed with St. Mary's but they ran out of gas near the end, so I know Arizona is deep enough to hang with a good team and come out the other side. But I also would've thought that about Florida State...and Xavier just dropkicked them. Xavier is the house money-est of all these teams, I'll stick with them to throw Arizona for a loop.

Kansas-Purdue: Caleb Swanigan has really impressed me so far in this tournament, looking forward to see him in the NBA next year (reminds me of Marc Gasol, Chris Webber and...yeah, I'll say it....Arvydas Sabonis, the ultimate white whale of pro basketball). He's got size, skill and poise...unfortunately I can't say that I've been terribly impressed with anyone else in a Purdue uniform. My gut is Swanigan will bring it and really shine out but Kansas will be the better team and move on. Coming in I thought Kansas was...not the most likely to win but the least likely to not win...that make sense? They're a veteran squad that does what they need to do to win the game and my pick to win it all (well, my non-Kentucky pick, obviously). As much as I love Swanigan's game, he can't do it himself against a top flight squad like Kansas.

Oregon-Michigan: Oregon wasn't at their best coming into the tourney while Michigan had just finished an improbable run through the Big Ten tournament after a so-so regular season. Michigan is rising, Oregon is treading water, which makes them about even. This game is a total toss-up and I don't know either of them well enough to have a sense of how they match-up. I'll take...Michigan?

Butler-North Carolina: I thought UNC got lucky against Arkansas, a coupla bad breaks (and questionable calls) doomed Arkansas. UNC has the talent and the depth but (*ahem*) those ACC teams play a little loose for my tastes. Butler is gonna play their game the right way and leave it on the court, whereas UNC may shine out or they may have their minds on other things. The average favors Butler, the high/low favors/dooms UNC. I'll take the average, I think Butler wins this game.

UCLA-Kentucky: This is the one everyone's waiting for. Kentucky has the sloppy habit of getting down early and digging their way out; they've been able to pull that off many times this year but UCLA is one of this season's opponents where they were not able to pull off the comeback. UCLA didn't blow out UK in that game but they held the lead throughout. *hater talk* I don't like this UCLA team as much as most people do. Ball can be great but he can throw it away too and as good as their outside shooting is, it can dry up. UK plays tenacious D and has an explosive offense. I dunno, I am a homer, but I'll take UK in the re-match.

Thornwell (South Carolina) and Swanigan (Purdue) are probably my two favorite players so far. We'll see who comes up big from here.

A Thought About John Calipari

Its that time of year when pundits and wags ponder which NBA city Calipari will parachute off to.  I've always been skeptical of Calipari going back to the NBA because he knows better than anyone how hard it is to win.  And at this point in his life I reckon Calipari would rather be a winner than just about anything else.  Furthermore, his skill set is better suited to college: he takes high school kids and he turns them into pros.  That's what he does, that's his thing.  I don't mean to suggest he'd be a terrible choice to coach the Knicks or Lakers or whoever the team d'jour, just that his skill set is in molding and shaping pros not dealing with the finished product.  (I do believe Cal would be interested in coaching USA if/when Coach K ever shuffles off, but that shouldn't interrupt Wildcat time)

At Kentucky Cal is free to control every minute of every day whereas in the pros he'd be well paid to be helpless.  The NBA can't guarantee success or control or glory.  All the NBA can provide is more money...I hate to be that guy but...Kentucky can come up with more money if that's all it is.  Kentucky is the perfect spot for Cal to hone his skills, pile up W's, maybe another championship or two (though beware Cats fans: he prizes high draft picks as much as if not more than banners), before he gets a plum gig at ESPN and basks in his Hall of Fame retirement.  The NBA is a hassle, winning is great but losing probably sucks pretty bad.  If the perfect NBA gig came along Cal would have to think it over, leverage the offer if nothing else, but even with the perfect gig it would be hard to leave UK (4 Finals Fours in 6 years, remember).  

Say the soon to be playoff-tested New Orleans Pelicans decide Monte Williams just isn't the guy to steward Anthony Davis going forward and fire him (very possible, maybe even likely, btw), who better to get the most out of AD than his old ball coach, Cal.  Would Cal jump at the job of well-paid mentor to the most exciting, arguably all-around best basketball player in the world?  No.  The rest of the roster is a mess and the Western Conference is murder, having the best player is a great advantage in basketball but it ain't everything.  And as long as the Pelicans are mired with the likes Evans (another Cal men-tee), Gordon (still the worst contract in the league), Holiday (nice player but oft-injured) and no draft picks coming, that gig would be a pain in the ass even with Anthony Davis on your roster. 

So even though it happens every year and will continue to happen, I don't see Cal leaving UK.  Unless...imagine this scenario: the Cavs make mincemeat of the Celtics, then get tested by the Bulls, they pull together, Love hits a few big shots, the Cavs breeze through the East, bond as a team Spur-style, then get waxed in the Finals.  The team needs a fall guy for losing in the Finals.  Not Lebron, not Kyrie, not Love (now an integral part of the offense and positive vibe, sticks around instead of bailing), not Varajao or Thompson or Mozgov.  Lebron says Blatt has to go.  Would that be a good spot for Cal?  Fuck yeah it would!

Lebron and Kyrie pretty much guarantee dominance in the East for the next 5-6 years (maybe not Jordan-Pippen dominance or even Lebron-Bosh-Wade dominance, probably more like a Chauncey-Tayshaun-Rasheed-Rip kinda dominance).  In the scenario above, Love sticks around and the three of them make it work, the rest of the cast is pretty well set with enough cap flexibility to stay frisky.  Dude that team is gonna crush in the East.  And all Cal has to do is show up to the press conferences.  As we all know Lebron is already the GM and head coach, Cal would basically just be a freelance media consultant to Lebron, more of an assistant to Lebron than a control freak kinda coach.  Love is key: without Love the roster is out of balance and while Lebron-Kyrie will be attractive to free agents, you never know who's gonna be available down the road.  Keeping Love as a successful part of the tandem is just too good to pass up.  Also, if Love splits, then he becomes the scapegoat and potentially buys Blatt another year to discover the best ways to remove thorns from Lebron's paws as a way of keeping himself useful.  

Lebron-Kyrie-Love coming together and ALMOST winning is the beauty scenario--and I would suggest truly the only scenario--that gets Cal back to the NBA.  Think about it: Lebron is Sinatra, Kyrie is Sammy D, Love is Peter Lawford, Cal slides right in as Dean Martin.  David Blatt is more of a Joey Bishop.  Cal would be the perfect foil for Lebron: the coach who would say all the right things and never get in the damn way.  Of course, the scenario above is really quite sensitive, a lot of things could conspire to bring back Blatt or drive away Love or otherwise muck up the perfect vibe Cal is seeking.  But if it came to pass and Cal thought he could go pro with a killer squad in the East, I reckon he might jump on that....and that might happen some time in late June.    

If Cal leaves will Kentucky be able to hold on to Cal's recruiting network?  And can UK pry Brad Stevens away from the Celtics?   Stevens is the only one who could follow Cal.