Tuesday, January 29, 2019

2018-18 Pointless NBA Trade (Obligatory Anthony Davis Edition)

First off: the Pelicans should not trade Anthony Davis before the deadline, they would be better served by waiting til the summer when the draft order is known and the full range of possible teams/packages are on the table (the Celtics, for example, possibly the Raptors and Blazers, too). That said, only a handful of teams are really capable of being a part of the Anthony Davis sweepstakes anyway (and those squads that would think of taking a flyer on him now and flipping Davis in the summer are few and far between and probably not worth considering). But if the Pelicans are going to trade him now, I would suggest forcing Solomon Hill (the Pelicans' worst contract) to the 'winner' and then they should go ahead and move Holiday and Mirotic (the Pelicans' 1st and 3rd largest contracts), as well. Go ahead and remake the whole team from top to bottom because if you're gonna lose Davis, then you may as well clean house and get rid of everyone (with the exception of Julius Randle, still very cheap for his production (*)).

So with all that in mind, here's two trades:

Nuggets get Anthony Davis, Solomon Hill; Pelicans get Paul Millsap, Jamal Murray, Micheal Porter

and

Clippers get Jrue Holiday, Nikola Mirotic; Pelicans get Danilo Gallinari, Avery Bradley, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Worth noting that the Nuggets have a built in home court advantage (altitude) that should suit Davis's desire to play for a winner, a good coach (Malone) who has a knack for mixing and matching lineups, a legit super fucking badass (Jokic) to pair up with and a decent collection of weird talent, even after the trade. The Nuggets would lose their main playmaker in Murray, but they'd still have Harris, Barton and Craig for wing-scoring. They would surely immediately stretch Hill, saving them a few bucks to find a PG in the off-season (Eric Bledsoe would be more Murray-like but Ricky Rubio's passing would fit nicely with that crew). They'd also be giving up Paul Millsap (who they would likely cut in the off-season anyway) and Michael Porter (still could turn out to be the steal of the 2018 draft). The team could still have the same problems he had in New Orleans, but putting AD and Jokic together is tantalizing--though the Nuggets would really only have about 3 months to make it work, that 2020 trade deadline would be looming from day one.

The Clippers would get a vet PG to build around and an expiring wing scorer to replace Gallinari. They would give up Avery Bradley and their hot young PG (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander)--is that a direction they want to go in? They'd be paying a lot more for an aging PG, but in the summer they'd have a ton of money to lure in vets to go with him (Kawhi?) and/or money to re-up Tobias Harris (and maybe Mirotic). The Clippers would get older but not significantly more expensive and would still leave them pretty limber for making moves in the off-season.

Notice in these deals I left out draft picks, which is presumably what the Pelicans are gonna want for Davis but by adding Gilgeous-Alexander, Murray and Porter they'd be getting 1st rounders with plenty of upside and since the Nuggets 2019 pick is already spoken for, I'd suggest they're better than the picks they'd be getting back anyway. The Pelicans would have one more year of Gallinari (an effective Mirotic-like wing scorer) and Bradley (solid defender, if suspect offensive talent) and a team option on Paul Millsap (at $30m, I would expect them to let him go). One kooky quirk in these deals: the Pelicans would end up with the three youngest players and the three oldest players, so some youth to root for and some vets to hold the post-Davis architecture together.

Look, the Pelicans are so built around Anthony Davis that nothing will look as good next year. When they move him (and they're gonna, sooner or later), they may as well remodel the whole house. Again, I'd keep Julius Randle (player option for next year, I'd ask him nicely to stick around) which would give them a lineup of PG Gilgeous-Alexander, SG Murray, SF Randle, PF Gallinari, C Okafor with Payton, Clark, Frazier, Moore, Miller, Porter, and Diallo off the bench. Granted, that team is young, they would struggle for a year or two, but a year of tanking is all part of the process (trust it, it works!). Speaking of: why not bring in Sam Hinkie to lead to the rebuild? Dell Demps should've been run out years ago, letting him trade Davis and Holiday on his way out is like letting the SP take credit for an intentional walk before calling to the bullpen. And since Coach Gentry likely wouldn't want to hang around either, I'd suggest going for either Jeff Hornacek or Fred Hoiberg to guide the new look Pels.

Yeah, weird. This absolutely won't happen because small market owners are terrified of teardowns like this. But losing Anthony Davis is going to be so terrifying that they may as well tear off all the band-aids at once. Let it bleed, New Orleans. Find your young core, build through the draft, love the basketball and trust the process.


(*) I'd keep Jahlil Okafor, too. He's very cheap and with crazy changes afoot, this is probably his last best chance to come alive. At his price point and with the low post-AD expectations, may as well give him one last chance to wow.

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