When I was a kid Commissioner Rozelle preached of 'parity', a world where all teams are on an even keel competitively. Well, that doesn't exactly work in the regular season but when the four quarterfinal matches end in 3 walk-off FGs and a coin flip finish (*), we are basking in the glow of Rozelle's vision. And the man was right: this was a great weekend of football.
Bengals 19-16 Titans
First play from scrimmage: Ian Eagle is hitting us with a stat about the Titans' paucity of turnovers in recent weeks just as Tannehill was releasing his pass--and I swear to God, I knew that pass was getting intercepted. And it was. The Titans tried to make use of Derrick Henry, who had not played in several weeks, but it didn't move the ball down the field. The Titans pass rush was impressive (Joe Burrow became the first QB to win a playoff game after getting sacked 9 times) but otherwise there just wasn't much to the Titans after you factor in Henry's gimpiness. The Titans were neither over/under rated, they were a quarterfinal squad and that's about right. The Bengal pass rush, too, was pretty good, and though the Bengal offense mostly produced only FGs, it was enough to move on.
Niners 13-10 Packers
I feel like I say this all the time on this blog, but the Packers' brilliant opening drive, followed by absolutely no offense for the rest of the game, happens a lot more than you think it does--don't be overwhelmed by the opening drive! The Packers missed an FG and had a disastrous blocked punt from their own end zone, so though Aaron Rodgers was not amazing today (boy, were there any other receivers besides Davante Adams out there?), he was actually still good enough to beat a Niners offense that only put up 2 FG's. The Niners D was great (a lot of pass rush this weekend!) and the special teams made the big plays to win the game, but I'm still not seeing it with the Niners (yeah, yeah, they'll be hoisting the trophy and I'll still be like, but how did they win?). Point being: to me this was a Packers choke job, not a Niner victory.
Rams 30-27 Bucs
Okay, I think we can tell who the Rams are now, right? They're unstoppable for 2-3 quarters and then completely run out of gas in the end. That's who they are, right? So when they went up 27-3 (should've been worse than that, too), no one really thought the game was over, right? And when Tom Brady came back and tied it up late, no one was really shocked, right? We all saw all that coming, right? Well, until that last monster bomb down field to Cooper Kupp to set up the game winning FG--I didn't see that coming! Fun game, though it was never really what you would call 'competitive', even though it was tied with five seconds to go. Now they say Brady is retiring...well this probably was his last best chance and he did just win a Super Bowl, so perhaps now is the time; on the other hand, the Saints and Panthers have no QB and the Falcons are going to replace Ryan soon, feels like the Bucs are still a playoff team... (don't be surprised if this story turns out to be less true than we think it is).
Bills 36-42 (OT) Chiefs
Well, obviously I would've preferred a different outcome, but this was an amazing game and ended up the way I thought it would, so I can't complain too much. Fun game, back and forth game, felt like the Chiefs had the upper hand and then it didn't any more, that last two minutes was non-stop craziness (at the 2-minute warning the score was 21-26) and I think we've proved that Mahomes and Josh Allen are two best QB's in the league right now. I fully expect both of these squads to be back next year--and I fully expect the Bills to vanquish the Chiefs at that time. The Chiefs were always the best team in the AFC and their weird offensive squabbles early on, never fazed me for a second; and the Bills were always the 2nd best team in the AFC (though that one I wasn't so sure of til this past Sunday). Hey, Mafia, we'll always have 47-17 and that still makes this a great season.
Bengals @ Chiefs (-6.5) (o/u 51)
The Bengals beat the Chiefs in Week 17, a really marvelous game that went down to the wire (some questioned the Bengals' kooky clock work down the stretch but I thought it was perfect). Can they beat the Chiefs again? Yeah, but I wouldn't bet on it. The Bengals are really good, man, this is not a fluke, that offense can really move the ball and Burrow is the shit. I've even become more impressed with their pass rush (**) but the Chiefs are rolling again, they've re-discovered that the Kelce-Tyreke combo is pretty much un-guardable and Mahomes will find them. The Chiefs looked wounded enough throughout the season to give us pause--and the Bengals are a worthy opponent--but the Chiefs are still the best. Chiefs 31-20 (Chiefs, push)
Niners @ Rams (-4) (o/u 47)
(Division game in the conference finals?) (***) The Niners have beaten the Rams five straight times, including Week 18 when the Rams blew a 17-0 lead. Well, we know how this plays: the Rams will get an early lead and try to hang on. I think they can and will. Outside of the 1st quarter of the Cowboys game, the Niner offense has not done anything at all. Let's be honest: the Cowboys blinked and the Packers just forgot that special teams is a part of the game; the Niners are not in the final four because of their brilliant play. Can they beat the Rams? Oh yeah, we've seen them do it. But if you're blown away by the Niners' play so far in the playoffs....why? I'm still not convinced they're better than the Cowboys! That pass rush (always with the pass rush these days!) has been excellent and I think they'll have their moments against Stafford. But I think the Rams will finally play a complete game and we won't even see much of a late comeback. Rams 34-16 (Rams, over)
(*) I haven't heard anyone say this all week long, but we all agree that if the Bills had won the OT coin toss, then it would've been Josh Allen going right down the field to secure the W for the Bills rather than Mahomes winning it for the Chiefs, right? We all know that, right? This game was literally a coin flip and the difference between Allen and Mahomes right now is less than a penny.
(**) Man, all these deep playoff squads have great pass rushes! In this era of great QB's, the next weapon in the pass rush, isn't it?
(***) Remember back at the beginning of the year when we thought the NFC West and AFC West were both going to dominate? Then the season started and that all went away. Well, 3 of the last 4 teams are from the West, so...
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