2023-24 NFL (Playoffs Wild Card Round)

Browns (-1.5) @ Texans (o/u 44.5)

I've watched the Browns a lot this year and I've generally been pretty impressed. Their defense is maybe the best in the league and it keeps them in games even when they roll in with a backup QB--which was, like, every game this season. The Texans have a rookie QB and coach and are winning because they don't know they're supposed to (ah, I love those teams!). I'm expecting a good one here, these are two pretty good teams that aren't as good they think they are, so a lot of swagger going into this one. I like the Browns, I just think the Texans are too young to get it done. I'll say Browns 24-14 (Browns and the under)

Dolphins @ Chiefs (-4.5) (43.5)

The Dolphins have had bursts of big offense but not enough to make me think they're really all that dangerous, especially considering the cavalcade of injuries they endured down the stretch. The Chiefs have improved their defense but the offense is just Mahomes alone (oh man, that just came to me! Need a t-shirt of Mahomes in the Scream pose). But Mahomes alone is still pretty great and I think gonna be better than what the Dolphins can bring. I like the Dolphins keep it close but Chiefs move on. Chiefs 24-21 (Dolphins and the over).

Steelers @ Bills (-9.5) (33.5)

For years now (YEARS!) I've been watching the Steelers get worse and worse on offense and yet still get W's and make the playoffs. This team is not good and hasn't been good in years. Yes, the defense is still okay (but they're without TJ Watt this week) and the 3rd string QB Rudolph is better than the 2nd string (Trubisky) and arguably the 1st string (Pickett) but I'm still not buying that they can move the ball. The BIlls run defense is a little soft but I don't see the Steelers being able to take advantage. The Bills have done just enough to win this season but as weird as they were, they did finish 2nd in the AFC, which was pretty close to everyone's pre-season pick, so are we sure they had a bad season? Okay, here's the prognostication: the Steelers hit big over the top early in the game, punch Buffalo in the nose and then...do nothing for the rest of the game. Neither team is worried about the frigid conditions--hell, both these teams love that shit. I'll say Bills 27-13 (Bills and the over).

Packers @ Cowboys (-7) (50.5)

People are on the Packers, who played better down the stretch once it seemed like they finally figured out their own QB (Love is up and down but promising enough to be a keeper, I'd say). But when the Cowboys bring their A game (especially at home), they are petty damn overpowering offense. I think the Cowboys bring it, just don't see how the Packers keep up. I'll say Cowboys 38-17 (Cowboys and the over)

Rams @ Lions (-3) (51.5)

I think this could be the funnest game of a weekend full of fun games. The Rams started slow but when they play their best game, they're pretty damn good on both sides of the ball. The Lions have had highs and lows but my gut feeling is they're best is better than the Rams best. I'd love to see them both play their best but I think the Lions have a better chance of playing their best than the Rams (does that make sense?). I like the Lions in a barn burner (I think the Rams have their chance to win it and come up short). Lions 31-28 (Push and the under).

Eagles (-3) @ Bucs (43.5)

The Eagles just haven't looked interested in football for a coupla months now, not sure what their deal is, but I'd like to think they pull it together at least enough to beat the Bucs. The Bucs are the wildly unpredictable (the Colts were like this, too) team in the post-season, so if you think they're going to roll over to the Eagles, well, bet the opposite. I've factored that in, though, as I think the Eagles are bringing back their A game (for one week at least) and look to get up early and then bring the pass rush. I got Eagles 31-13 (Eagles and the over).