Lakers 126-132 Nuggets
Lakers 103-108 Nuggets
Nuggets 119-108 Lakers
Nuggets 113-111 Lakers
Game One felt to me like it would be the template of the series: Nuggets came out dominant, built a huge lead, Jokic was breaking NBA records by halftime and then the Lakers salted away that lead and came close to overtaking the home team, when the Nuggets put the clamp down on (scrum at the Lakers end led to a breakaway dunk for Gordon with about a minute to go and that was that). Takeaway: Nuggets offense is pretty great and their defense is pretty bad.
But the next three games went the other way: Lakers came out strong but couldn't ever really hold the Nuggets off. Can't tell you how many times the Lakers would go on a crazy run, getting buckets, making plays, got all the momentum....and you'd look up and they're ahead by 4....really? This Nuggets team doesn't stay cold for long and no matter how bad their D is, they've always got a chance to seal it late. And they did in each of the last three games.
The Lakers had a nice run after a sloppy regular season but they just weren't as good as the Nuggets (were they really better than the Grizzlies or Warriors?) and Lebron's first loss in the final four was the end result. Austin Reaves and Rui Hachimura were the big revelations (and the next big off-season question marks), so Laker fans can still say they had a good season and look forward to next year. And, in true look-at-me fashion, Lebron hinted at retirement (*), so we talked about that for a week rather than acknowledging the obvious truth that the Nuggets are the best team and Nikola Jokic is the best player in the league right now.
Heat 123-116 Celtics
Heat 111-105 Celtics
Celtics 128-102 Heat
Celtics 102-82 Heat
Heat 97-110 Celtics
The Heat just outplayed the Celtics in the first two games in Boston, then mopped the floor with the listless Celtics in Game Three. But the Celtics woke up, rode a hot 3rd quarter to a season-saving W in Game Four and then came out hot (and the Heat kinda mailed it in) in Game Five to keep the series alive.
Right off the bat: all the Celtics looked great in Game Five and utterly awful in Game Three. But otherwise, Jaysun Tatum has been good not great, Jaylen Brown has been ineffective (to use the charitable term), Robert Williams has actually been pretty great but Malcolm Brogdon, Marcus Smart, Derrick White and Al Horford have all been okay in the wins and not so good in the losses.
For the Heat Jimmy Butler was dominant in the 3 W's and MIA (**) in the two losses. Man, something I noticed about Bam Adebayo: he's typically always great at either defense or offense but he's never great (or bad) at BOTH ends and, holy shit, that kid never gets any calls! Considering how hard he works and what a nice guy he seems like, it's kind of amazing how little love he gets from the refs. Caleb Martin has been great all through this post-season--I'd say he's the real difference maker on this year's run. Kyle Lowry veers between sneaky good and utterly unplayable. Duncan Robinson has returned to the rotation and occasionally looks like really good. Max Struss has generally been good, though he strangely disappeared in Game Five. Gabe Vincent has been nice and they even got some good minutes out of Heywood Highsmith.
The reason the Heat found themselves up 3-0 in the conference finals is because they've been hitting crazy shots (especially Martin) for three straight rounds now. If that continues, they'll mow down the Celtics; if it doesn't, they'll have to dig deep because the momentum has swung back to the Celtics, who suddenly have nothing left to lose.
I think the Heat will win tonight--and if they don't, I still think they'll win in Game Seven back in Boston. So though I picked the Celtics in 7, still very much on the table, I wasn't that enthusiastic about that pick and even though they seem to have right the ship, I'm still dubious of their chances of taking two more from the Heat. Looking forward to Game Six tonight because both teams need to bring it.
The Celtics coming back from 3-0 would be one of the weirder things I've seen in the NBA in a while--and that's considering the #1 Bucks got dusted, the #2 Grizzlies couldn't hang, the defending champ Warriors (***) stumbled around all season long and the left-for-dead Lakers made a run to the final four. Been a weird season, weird playoffs--and a weird summer awaits!
(*) Will Lebron retire this summer? No fuckin' way! The only scenario that would keep Lebron from coming back next year is if this summer's surgery goes horribly horribly wrong, which I don't anticipate will happen. So unless Lebron gets hit by a comet, I fully expect him to be back next season.
(**) "Ask me why...am I....M-I-A...Am I in heaven or am I in Miami"....Ah, an old favorite.
(***) Weird observation. The Nuggets swept the Lakers but all four games were competitive. I can't help thinking that if the Nuggets had played the Warriors instead, the Warriors would've gotten hot and stole a game...but would've gotten absolutely curb stomped in the other four games. Does that make sense? Nuggets-Lakers was a tennis match where the two competitors were actually pretty close though the scoreline looks like a walkover, whereas the Nuggets-Warriors would've been a pummeling where the scoreline would've looked a little less bad for the loser. Weird season, man, and I love it.
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