Chiefs 17-10 Ravens
Well, the Ravens picked a bad time to play their worst game of the year, but I kinda saw it coming (but tried to ignore it), because the Ravens have benefitted immensely throughout the season from other people's mistakes instead of their own brilliance. I like Lamar Jackson, I'd say he is the deserving MVP, he had a hell of a season and that Ravens defense is really good--one of the greatest of all time? Well, no, but one of the better defenses of this season, absolutely. But still the Ravens have accrued most of their W's from other teams self-destructing as much as the Ravens getting it done.
Meanwhile, the Chiefs also have a great QB and one of the league's better defenses, so was this a match of evenly matched teams? Well, no. I'd still say the Ravens were a more complete team with a more reliable offense and more reliable defense. All they had to do was avoid the dumb mistakes and wait for the other team to falter--and as great as Mahomes is, he doesn't have that much to work with these days--so expecting the Ravens to win even while thinking they are a bit overrated does not seem like a crazy concept to me (indeed, I still had the Ravens winning and covering even though I've been skeptical of them all season).
But, all that said, the Ravens sucked so bad in the 2nd half--and the Chiefs didn't hardly do anything--that it is kinda shocking that the Ravens made it this far. The Ravens couldn't sustain drives in the 1st half and found unique and interesting ways to sabotage their good drives in the 2nd half. But even with all that, the Ravens were still the better team and should've won--and probably even covered!
The Chiefs started with 3 good drives that netted them 17 points and then....survived. Are the Chiefs good? The Dolphins were completely falling apart by the time the post-season arrived, the Bills defense was decimated and the Ravens kept shooting themselves in the foot over and over. My take that this team is just Mahomes, a so-so running game and a pretty good defense and nothing else is still intact.
Lions 31-34 Niners
The Lions built up an impressive 24-7 lead at halftime, but then completely foundered in the 2nd half and outside of a garbage time TD, basically couldn't do anything right. Too bad because the 1st half Lions were easily the best of the 4 teams that played today. But they couldn't convert on 4th down (Reynolds!), gave up a miracle reception, gave away a particularly egregious fumble, couldn't convert on 3rd down (Reynolds!) and then chose to go for it on 4th down when tying the game with FG was clearly the better move. Look, coach, I love that you "believe" in your guys and you like to gamble--that's great! But is okay to "believe" in your kicker, too, and to gamble on a game-tying FG, too.
As for the Niners, they started the game trying to ride McCaffrey and that kinda went nowhere. But in the 2nd half they rode Deebo Samuel and that was much more effective. Then they rode the momentum that the Lions just couldn't regain and, well, that was enough to move on from the NFC. The Niners all season long were pretty clearly the best team in football on both sides of the ball. But the Packers and Lions both stifled the mighty Niner defense and the offense came alive when needed but could've asserted more control (if you really think they're that good).
Super Bowl
Niners (-1.5) @ Chiefs (o/u (47.5)
Okay, well, right off: after the Conference Finals I can't help thinking that a Ravens-Lions SB would've been a much invigorating game, but this is what we have.
The Niners defense has looked pretty bad for a while now, can they stop Mahomes? The Chiefs made good use of TE Kelce before halftime against the Ravens, but I don't think the Niners will let that happen. I kinda think Kelce (aka "Mr. Swift") will be strangely non-existent in this match since the Niners clearly have the LB strength to take him out. But that should offer chances for the Chiefs WRs at the second level. If the Niner pass rush can re-emerge, then Mahomes will be hard-pressed to take advantage of this. But if he has time, I expect the WRs to get 1st downs. Mahomes is a genius, entirely up to the Niner pass rush to get going, but so far it seems like Mahomes is brilliant early but wears down as the game goes on.
On the other side, QB Brock Purdy has a habit of starting slow, then making the right plays down the stretch. That might work against the Chiefs, if their offense diminishes after halftime, but I think it'd be much better if Purdy got going early. Last time, they leaned on McCaffrey early but had success going to Samuel, let's see if they feature Samuel out of the gate. The Chiefs D is good but the Niner offense should be dynamic enough to move the ball. If Purdy plays mistake-free, they should be much better than the Chiefs. But the Niners have played their worst football of the season in the last few weeks, are they gonna turn it around in time?
Okay, I've picked against Mahomes three straught weeks, am I dumb enough to do it again? Yes, I am. Because I think the Chiefs opponents have mostly self-destructed lately and I'm going to put my faith in the sheer depth of Niner talent to get the stops needed and to pressure Mahomes throughout. If so, the Niners could win easily. And, frankly, they better because if they let the Chiefs hang around, Mahomes has the magic to steal away the big game.
I agonized over this match for two weeks now, but suddenly it seems to me that this has the chance to be a Niner boat race. If they play their best game on both sides, they should be far superior to the Chiefs. I'm betting they put together the right plan and get the luck they need because the Chiefs offense just isn't the dynamic force it has been in recent years and as good as the Chiefs D is, the Niners have plenty of firepower on their offense. If Purdy plays mistake-free and either Samuel or McCaffrey bust loose, then the Niners should dominate this game. They haven't shown it lately, but I'm betting the Niners shine out here and control this game from start to finish (yeah, I know....Mahomes....). I see the Chiefs winning a close game but the Niners winning a blowout.
I'll say Niners 34-17 (Niners and over).
No comments:
Post a Comment