2026 World Cup (Round of 16)

Canada - Morocco

Canada so far has tied Bosnia, destroyed Qatar, lost to Switzerland and beat South Africa; Morocco has tied Brazil, beat Scotland, Haiti and Netherlands.  Canada is a so-so squad--which is better than they've ever been! So far they've had two uninspiring W's, an uninspiring draw and a deflating L. Morocco, on the other hand, stared down the Netherlands, went toe-to-toe with Brazil and breezed through the teams they should've beaten. Canada is another team that Morocco should beat. I got Morocco. 

Paraguay - France

Paraguay got whipped by USA, beat Turkey, tied Australia and survived Germany; France destroyed Senegal, Iraq, Norway and Sweden. Paraguay bounced back well from an opening shellacking by the host country and everyone is duly impressed that they survived a knockout stage match up with mighty Germany (who hasn't looked mighty for a while now). But France is dusting people off without much effort and frankly hasn't come close to playing their best soccer yet. Paraguay beating France would be a much bigger upset then beating Germany (*) and I just don't think they have it in them. I got France. 

Brazil - Norway

Brazil tied Morocco, breezed through Scotland and Haiti and bested Japan; Norway destroyed Iraq, beat Senegal, got pummeled by France, then beat Ivory Coast. Norway is led by Erling Haaland, a young scorer in his prime, that has been finishing like a champ at this tourney. I thought Senegal and Ivory Coast were pretty good teams and I value Norway's wins in both, and as for stumbling to France, well, sometimes you get so used to fearing someone that you just roll over. Does Norway fear Brazil? They shouldn't. Brazil has had a rather easy run so far and I think Norway can sting them. We'll see but I think this one goes to over time and if it goes to PKs, anything can happen. I'll take Norway.

Mexico - England

Mexico has beat South Africa, South Korea, Czechia and Ecuador; England beat Croatia, tied Ghana, then beat Panama and Congo. Mexico's offense is really good right now, they are all on the same page and they are gonna be a tough out. As for England, I dunno, man, outside of Harry Kane (the man), I haven't been overwhelmed by the English so far. They're supposed to be a top tier squad but outside of Kane, I haven't felt that at all. Mexico is the home country and they are hot as a urinary infection right now. I'm going Mexico.

Portugal - Spain

Portugal tied Congo, blistered Uzbekistan, had a scoreless draw with Colombia, and snuck by Croatia (probably should've gone to PKs, which is a coin flip); Spain opened with a scoreless draw with Cape Verde (everyone's 2nd favorite team at the 2026 World Cup!), pummeled Saudi Arabia, beat Uruguay and easily handled Austria in the knockout. Every Cup features a team that was really good last time around that returns intact and shows the fact that they're too old now...Portugal is this year's version of that. Yeah, they're okay, they've got veteran savvy and Ronaldo is still a great (eh, pretty good) player. But I just don't have any faith in this squad at all. Spain has a lot of nice young talent that hasn't really done anything yet. That said, I still think Spain is the much better, deeper squad. Gotta go with Spain. 

USA - Belgium

USA thrashed Paraguay, easily handled Australia, had a tricky time with Turkey (half fun/half frustrating match), but pretty easily handled Bosnia and Herzegovina in the knockout; Belgium tied with the surprisingly frisky Egypt, tied with the unsurprisingly not frisky Iran, laid a smackdown on New Zealand, then got astoundingly lucky against Senegal (a fluky late goal, then a questionable (**) penalty in OT). Remember how I just said that Portugal was the past-their-prime squad? Its also Belgium. This team never reached its full potential and I think the "full" potential is actually already out of reach. Can they beat the upstart Americans? Yeah, they've got veteran moxy, but this is the best American team of all time (***) and they're the host country. In short: I ain't afraid of no fuckin' Belgium! USA, USA, USA!

Argentina - Egypt

Argentina stomped Algeria, easily handled Austria and Jordan, then hung on for dear life against Cape Verde (everyone's 2nd favorite team!) in a classic; Egypt tied Belgium, thrashed New Zealand, tied Iran and got past Australia on PKs. Egypt is a serviceable batch of professionals with a bit of scoring potential up front but nothing really scary otherwise; in short, a run to the Sweet 16 in a nice tourney for them, from here it would require an all time upset. Can they do it? Well, Messi has been amazing (tied for the Golden Boot with Mbappe right now), but to be honest, I have not been overwhelmed by the rest of the squad. Messi is a weird player in that he adds so little on defense and yet is still putting points on the board, you have to defer to him even if he's being a drag (or maybe the other way around: this whole team is a drag and Messi is the lipstick on this pig). And that's where we are: this ought to be an easy Argentina victory, right? A walkover? And yet, I think Egypt can totally hang, would not be shocked if they scored early and took this to the wire. But at the end of the day, Argentina has guaranteed firepower, gotta go with Messi to figure it out. I got Argentina.

Switzerland - Colombia

Switzerland opened with a draw of Qatar, laid the smackdown on Bosnia and Herzegovina, outlasted Canada, then breezed past Algeria in the knockout; Colombia beat Uzbekistan, Congo, had a scoreless draw with Portugal, then sneaked past Ghana in the knockout. Tough one. On the hand, Switzerland has some nice confident wins while Colombia looks shakier; and yet I think I'm more impressed with Colombia's opponents rather than Switzerland's. Switzerland seems younger and more athletic, but Colombia has wily veterans. My gut feeling is Colombia but I'm not sure why I think that. So, I dunno, I'm going with Colombia. 

I've already made deeper predictions, but I'll wait til the next round to update them here. (Spoiler alert: I like Mexico a lot, we'll see if I still do in the next post)

(*) Not only did Paraguay beat Germany, they actually let Germany back into the game and then beat them again. That was pretty cold blooded.  

(**) Yeah I said it. Look, the soccer world is still relatively new to video replay, as an American (that has long detested replay across virtually all sports) I've watched it for a while now and I'm telling ya: video is not same all-knowing perfection device. Okay, here's a homemade analysis video (that I don't really much agree with):

Neither player possesses the ball, why do we automatically favor the offensive player over the defensive player? The video suggests that Belgium was nearest the ball, that Senegal kicked his foot, but what if Senegal is actually there first and Belgium is stepping on his foot? We're reflexively blaming the defender when he has just as much right to reach for the ball as the attacker. Why isn't the defender allowed to reach for possession just like the attacker? Their feet both meet at the same time in the same place, why should we favor either player? I would've called it even and let it play. (And perhaps that's why I'm a blogger instead of a guy with a real life)

(***) Best American team of all time? Oh yeah! Quite easily! Even if Pulisic isn't playing, this is still the best team USA has ever fielded by a long shot. The 2006 team was special but not as good as this squad.