2026 NBA Final

Knicks over Spurs in 5

Been a while but just wanted to remind myself how f'n amazing Jalen Brunson was all through the playoffs this season. OG Anunoby, too, was letter perfect, did everything asked of him and made the tip in basket in Game Four that will cement his legend status in Manhattan for the rest of his days. Karl-Anthony Towns was really great in the first two games, then reverted back to dipshit Towns for the rest of the series but was still good enough/not damaging enough to make a worthy contribution. Mikael Bridges and Josh Hart were both up and down throughout the playoffs but were great teammates and made the plays needed of them. Landry Shamet and Mitchell Robinson were useful off the bench (Deuce McBride, not so much) and both (have already gotten) new contracts for next year.

As for the Spurs, I thought Coach Mitch Johnson did not have a good series, PG De'Aaron Fox struggled through injuries and just never found his game, 6th Man of the Year Keldon Johnson did not much in the series either, Julian Champagnie was up and down, thought he was better throughout the Western run but spotty at best in the Final. Wembenyama was good but not quite spectacular, Stephon Castle was pretty great except for his bouts of foul trouble, Dylan Harper shined out (though I think the perception that he was ready to take over the team was greatly exaggerated!), Devin Vassell was good but wasn't able to stop Brunson.

Basically all 5 games were the same: the Spurs would jump out to an early lead, Knicks would get it close by halftime; Spurs would jump back early in the 3rd and then the Knicks would dominate the 4th quarter. Only in Game Three (what Knicks fans will simply remember as "The Trump Game") were the Spurs able to score enough in the 4th to hold off the late Knicks charge. In the other four games, they weren't and Brunson owned them.

Where do they go from here? The Spurs are fine, they don't need to change anything. Another year of maturation (*) and a rematch with OKC are what they need to do next year. Everyone wants to trade Fox, and while that contract is daunting (and will have to be traded eventually), I think Fox is still in his prime and had a high ankle sprain in the playoffs, I think he's fine and can lead them deep into the playoffs again. Keldon Johnson was disappointing in the Finals but he's kinda perfect for this team, so I don't see a better replacement out there. This team is fine, no bold moves are necessary.

The Knicks had a uniquely soft run through the playoffs.  I'm not saying they suck, I'm not saying they didn't deserve their championship--I'm just saying they got to run through the Sixers and the Cavs instead of grinding through the Celtics and Pistons. I think they would've beaten the Celtics and the Pistons but they would've had to work a lot harder. Making it to the Final in complete health is the main reason they won, I would say, and it's almost unimaginable that that could happen again next year. Will the Knicks repeat in the East? Not impossible, they are a hell of a squad, they will surely be in the mix, but I doubt it because the run, the health, they had this year was just too perfect to recreate. 

But one last capper on the season: Jalen Brunson is the mother'f'n man and don't forget it.

(*) All year long the Spurs kept Wemby on a minutes limit and, well, they made the Finals. Personally, I'd keep his minutes low for another year, ramping up his minutes starting in March. Why not? No need to burn him out. The challenge in the west is the Thunder and staying healthy and....not much else. The plan worked better than expected this year, I'd give it another year before really throwing Wemby into the deep end.

2025-26 NBA Finals (after 1 game)

Knicks 105-95 Spurs

Just wanted to record my wild overaction to this result: the Knicks can sweep! (*) Everything that just happened in Game One can happen again and again and again.

I thought the key for the Spurs was Fox, but now I think it's Castle. If Bridges, Hart and Anunoby lock down Castle then that puts too much on Fox, Harper and Vassell to keep up with. If I were the Knicks, I'd let Wemby do whatever he wants--he can't carry the team. The Knicks supporting cast is better and they've been on a roll for a while now. The Spurs don't match up well with the Knicks (as opposed to the Thunder, with whom the Spurs match up well), the Knicks have hungry veterans to smother the Spurs' youth. Towns can score on Wemby and the Spurs have nothing to stop or counter Brunson's magic. I thought it would be a competitive series but after one game, I no longer think that. 

Am I being crazy? We'll see after Game Two tonight.

(*) If the Knicks finish on a 15 game winning streak, with a playoff record of 16-2 (two fluky buzzer beater losses), then the Knick-heads would be right: that'd be one of the great squads of the 21st century!

2025-26 NBA Finals

East

Knicks over Cavs in 4

Game One saw the Cavs pretty well stomp their way through NY for 3.5 quarters and then....well, they just stopped. The Cavs had a 22 point lead with 7 minutes to go and then Donovan Mitchell disappeared and their offense became a nightmare of James Harden dribbling dribbling dribbling and then taking a bad shot, while everyone watching kept wondering why Coach Atkinson never called a time out. Jalen Brunson woke up, went off and frankly the Cavs were lucky to tie it up and take it to OT--where they continued to suck. 

That was it for the Cavs. The next three games weren't even worth playing, the Knicks picked back up the heater they went on against the Hawks and Sixers and just smooshed the Cavs. Knicks fans are ecstatic, Cavs fans are still hitting the Pepto.

Where do the Cavs go? Well, considering that James Harden is the one they're probably most stuck with even though he's the one they ought to be finding a new home for, there's probably not much for the Cavs to do. The one that will get dumped is Jarrett Allen but he's the least expensive of their core and against the Pistons I thought he finally found his niche next to Evan Mobley. Bbut he's the one I most expect to see in a new uni next season. I dunno, man, I don't see the Cavs being better next year, whereas the Pacers and Hawks should be much better, the Heat seem primed for a big move, the Hornet are finally moving in the right direction and the Wizards shouldn't suck, so there's some urgency for the Cavs to at least maintain what they've got. Feels like this version of the Cavs peaked this year. 

West

Spurs over Thunder in 7

Game One was a classic, Game Seven was a classic, the other five games were just kinda watchable. Its easy to say the Spurs have arrived, but considering the Thunder were largely without Jalen Williams and Ajah Mitchell and that Chet Holmgren played as bad as he's probably ever played in his life, the Thunder were still in Game Seven with a coupla minutes to go. The Thunder were actually pretty bad and still could've won, so I don't think this rivalry is done--indeed, I'd be kinda shocked if anyone other than the Spurs and Thunder made the Conference Finals in the next 3 years.

Meanwhile, the Spurs perfectly rounded into shape: Fox was finally really good, Dillon Harper was excellent, Stephon Castle was pretty fuckin' great, Devin Vassell did a little bit of everything, Wemby was Wemby--and they still needed a (now) legendary chase down block by Luke Kornet to preserve the W. (*) 

This series was much closer than it looked. If I was OKC, I'd sign Cason Wallace, let go of Lu Dort, see if I could package their two 1st rounders to move up in the draft, think long and hard about bringing back Hartenstein, and roll the dice with Tomas Sorber and Nikola Topic in the rotation next year. Again, the Thunder were as bad as they've been in a while in this series and they still had their chance to win it. This Thunder run is far from over and I don't think desperate measures are necessary just yet. 

Finals

Knicks @ Spurs

This Spurs run has been about them figuring out their opponents: the Blazers stole a game from them, then the Spurs shut them down; the Wolves had moments against Wemby but once the Spurs got their number, it was over; the Thunder were pesky but the Spurs won the two classic games and outside of a strange letdown in Game Three, were generally the better team. I still say this is De'Aaron Fox's team and when he's right, that is peak Spurs. They're good around him, they're good without him, but he keeps them focused and moving forward, Fox is the key to this team. 

Wemby is Wemby. He's still young and he hasn't really yet built up to this level of play, but he's really good right now and a virtually impossible match up for every team in the league. Castle is turning into a star, so is Harper. Vassell and Bryant are solid contributors and Kornet and Harrison Barnes are still valuable to this young team. 

The Knicks were a nice--not great--team all season long. Then after going down 2-1 to the Hawks in the 1st round, the switch got flipped and they have pummeled everyone and everything ever since. One can point out that they didn't have to play the Celtics or Pistons in their run through the East, but if the Knicks were playing like this, I can confidently say they would've pummeled the Pistons and the Celtics. The Celtics were begging to lose and the Pistons were just too one-dimensional, neither of them would've given the Knicks much of a game, I'd say. 

Yes, the Spurs have faced superior competition than the Knicks have so far, but that doesn't matter now. Furthermore, the Blazers--even at their best--weren't as good as the Spurs this year; the Wolves were forced to give big minutes to Mike Conley after Donte Divincenzo got hurt and the Thunder were without Jalen Williams and Ajay Mitchell, which severely limited their offense. The Spurs' opponents had their flaws, too, so the path to the Final is not that meaningful to me this year. 

The Spurs didn't play anyone as offensively dynamic as the Knicks, nor anyone with the swagger (whether deserved or not) of the Knicks. The Knicks are playing better than the Thunder right now and the Spurs didn't exactly run the Thunder out of the gym. 

I still say the Knicks are at their best when Towns is the offensive focus, but there's no way that'll work for 7 games. But I think they can get 2 Towns games and 2 Brunson games and win it all. Anunoby has been great all post-season, Mikal Bridges took a while to get going but he was great against the Cavs, Josh Hart isn't gonna quit and he is guaranteed to make a handful of big plays in this series and if they can get anything out of Landry Shamet, they could run up the score if the Spurs give a listless performance. The Knicks will really need Mitchell Robinsn, for at least 4-5 games, if they get that, the Knicks will be the better team.

Wemby is great but at this point he is still additive, not a cornerstone. Castle and Harper, too, are additive, I don't see either of them taking over games at this level. Fox has to outplay Towns and/or Brunson for 4 games and while that is possible, it is a tough ask. 

I think the Knicks are ready for this, while the Spurs are on house money. I got the Knicks in 6.

(*) Oh, and Carter Bryant looks like another badass in waiting. 

2025-26 Champions League Semifinals, Final

1st Leg

Paris-St Germain 5-4 Bayern Munich

Man, I thought Bayern's two games against Real Madrid in the qaurters were the two best matches I'd see this year--nope! This opening leg leapfrogged both of those games. Back and forth action, both teams were capable of scoring or taking over at a moment's notice. I thought PSG was the best team in the whole tourney and I had Bayern 3rd behind Real Madrid (whom they beat), this is your championship right here. Do not miss the 2nd Leg! 

Atletico Madrid 1-1 Arsenal

Tight, both teams were competent but rarely felt like either team was ever gonna break through on the other. Two penalty kicks were all they could muster. Two evenly matched teams, neither as good as the two squads on the other side of the bracket, but both capable of giving those squads a serious sludge match. Just as good as PSG-Bayern but in the opposite direction. Good stuff.  

2nd Leg

Bayern Munich 1-1 (agg 5-6) Paris-St Germain

PSG found the net almost instantly in this game and on the one hand, man, a two goal lead felt insurmountable; on the other other hand, I immediately thought "this isn't the only goal we're gonna get in this game!" While the game had some furious offense, it wasn't until extra time that Bayern finally scored. I was a little surprised that these offenses that have just blasting people for weeks on end couldn't get more scoring going, but it was a competitive, entertaining back and forth game. (One note: I thought the ref did not have good game, took him a while to really establish control of the match and that alone may have thrown off Bayern's attack)

Arsenal 1-0 (2-1) Atletico Madrid

Another tight one, Arsenal found a sliver of space right before halftime and that was all it took. I thought Atletico was the better team but they just couldn't break through, just couldn't find the goal. Arsenal is a good team that stays within its team defense and makes the most of its counter-attacks. Nothing flashy, they just dug in and got it done against a solid squad. 

Final Prediction

Arsenal has slogged their way to the final without a high powered offense or even a noteworthy defense; they play as a single unit and when they keep themselves in check, they're just a mighty tough out. They don't seem like the kind of squad you typically see in the Champions League final, they're a workmanlike side that moves in lockstep and plays opportunistic offense, rather than riding some hot shot up front. I don't want to diss them, they're a hell of a squad, but I don't feel the star power of this side, just their team concept. Is that enough to slow PSG?

PSG goes and goes and goes and that alone outscores most everyone they play. They don't have Neymar or Messi or Mbappe any more, but they still feel loaded with stars and above average role players. They recover well and counter attack like the Showtime Lakers, they are not intimidated and I expect them to control the match from beginning to end. But that doesn't mean they'll score or that they'll escape Arsenal's opportunism.

I think this goes to OT. PSG is too furious to give Arsenal many chances, but Arsenal can bunker with the best of them and I don't think either team will get much done against the other. An extra 30 minutes should probably favor PSG, but I think it goes to PK's--and that's a coin flip. Can't wait! 

Final

Arsenal 1-1 Paris-St. Germain (PSG wins on PKs)

Arsenal scored an early goal and that felt like the best possible way to start the game: it would force PSG to ramp up the offense right away. But PSG struggled in the 1st half, Arsenal's tight D made it tough to get much going beyond midfield. PSG opened up a bit after halftime but a PK (the right call) was all they could muster. That said, I thought the 2nd half was exciting stuff, both teams had chances but both played even better defense. I predicted OT and PKs and I was right. Just kept waiting for PSG to find a way through the Arsenal backline but after 120 mins, it just didn't happen. 

I used to hate PKs but I've come to enjoy them, good tension and this one was no exception. Arsenal acquitted themselves admirably all the way through the tourney this year and they had their chance.  Hail PSG, back to back champs! 

2025-26 NBA Playoffs (after two rounds)

East

Cavs over Pistons in 7

This felt like a classic home team wins every game series and for the first 4 games, that's how it played. Then the Cavs stole Game Five in Detroit: Pistons were up 9 with 3 minutes to go, the game felt well in hand to me, but then the Pistons just straight ran out of gas and could not score again to save their lives. The Cavs took it to OT and dominated the extra period. But the Pistons came back strong in Cleveland, while the Cavs floundered badly and it went back to Detroit for Game Seven. Right away, the Cavs got buckets, Donovan Mitchell was getting assists finding Evan Mobley and Jarret Allen, the Pistons couldn't get their shooting going and it was all over. The Pistons vaunted D absolutely cratered as their lack of offense turned into confident possessions for the Cavs. 

The Pistons were a one-note team all year long but at the end of the season they kept getting W's without Cade and that impressed me, I thought the supporting cast could go up a level once Cade got back. In their best moments against the Magic and the Cavs, that kinda happened; but in their worser moments, it did not. Jalen Duren had a frighteningly bad (considering it is a contract year for him) run against Wendell Carter and Evan Mobley, Tobias Harris had to work too hard to find his scoring (when he did find it), Ausar Thompson's complete lack of offense becomes glaring in the post-season, Duncan Robinson had a nice run but missed a coupla games, Isiah Stewart and Paul Reid had some nice moments but didn't really sustain, Kevin Huerter was hurt and Daniss Jenkins is nice--the only guy that showed up for Game Seven!--but wasn't much of a difference maker. The rotation behind Cade is just so-so, which really makes you appreciate how damn good Cade was this year. The season was a pleasant surprise but, man, this summer is not looking good for them. They have a lot of questions, we'll see if they come up with some answers. 

Knicks over Sixers in 4

The Knicks got hot against the Hawks and kept it going. I didn't watch much of this series, because it was over so quick. The Knicks are on a seven game winning streak, playing their best ball of the season. 

The Sixers overachieved against the Celtics (who underachieved) only to receive a vicious reminder that they were not one of the best 8 teams in the NBA this year. Tyrese Maxey is stretching into a great team leader, VJ Edgecombe would've won Rookie of the Year in most seasons and Paul George really found something after his suspension late in the season. I've never been a Joel Embiid fan (and I'm still not), but he must still be considered part of their core because the Sixers are on the hook for another $180m to him so clearly he's not going anywhere. Adem Bona is a workable rotation guy. They got important minutes out of Kelly Oubre, Quentin Grimes and Andre Drummond this year, are any of those guys coming back and, if not, how do they get replaced? Where do they go from here? They've got Maxey and Edgecombe and the #22 pick...and...well....they've still got their 1st rounder for 2027, so I'm guessing they're on their way to a rebuild (I believe they call it a "Process" in Philly).  Could they swap Paul George for Jimmy Butler to get off big money without picking up any stray W's? They've already fired GM Darryl Morey, just the beginning of a clumsy summer ahead for the Sixers.

West

Thunder over Lakers in 4

Yawn! Another quick shredding for the Thunder that I barely paid attention to. 

The Lakers were without Luka Doncic for the entire series and as Austin Reaves was returning from an injury, his performance was up and down. Lebron is still a great player but he was all alone out there, squeezing what he could out of Rui Hachimura, Deandre Ayton, Luke Kennard and a mildly rejuvenated Marcus Smart (he was pretty good actually, but just not enough to make a difference). They didn't have enough to even come close to hanging with the Thunder. With Luka, maybe they would've scratched a game or two out of them, but I doubt even that would've made much difference. Next year, all they have right now is Luka, Jarred Vanderbilt, Jake LaRavia and Dalton Knecht with player options on Ayton (maybe), Smart (probably not) and Reaves, who they need to re-sign (or sign and trade) and the #25 pick . Will they bring back Lebron (doesn't seem like it) or Kennard (I doubt it) or Hachimura (I have no idea). Do people want to play with Luka? Do they want the bright lights of the Lakers? 

Spurs over Wolves in 6

News flash: Wemby is awesome and Dillon Harper is ready to be a major player. Weird series in that all the games were blow outs, as well matched as these two seemed to be, there were no interesting 4th quarters in the whole series. The three headed monster of De'Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle and Harper ran roughshod over the undermanned Wolves. When the Wolves were able to find their shooting touch, they won, but they just didn't do that often enough. They had a lot of length to throw at Wemby but without the requisite scoring, it didn't matter. Julius Randle was set up to be the difference maker and in the first game, he was exactly that; then....he never did that again and whatever advantage the Wolves had evaporated. Also, Rudy Gobert was not good in this series, I wouldn't say he got dominated by Wemby, he just wasn't good. And there was just too much Mike Conley, who had to play expanded minutes because of the loss of Donte DiVincenzo. The Spurs are ahead of schedule and not afraid of the OKC Thunder.

Can the Wolves run it back? Are we ready to say that Gobert is not the Wemby Kryptonite the Wolves need and therefore needs to be traded? Not sure. Is Joan Beringer ready to be the new Gobert and/or the new Wemby Kryptonite? Not sure. Is Naz Reid overrated or underrated? Not sure. (*) Ayo Dosunmu was a revelation against the Nuggets but was mostly invisible against the Spurs 3-guard attack; Bones Hyland, too, emerged against the Nuggets and then submerged against the Spurs; so do they bring those guys back or let them walk? Not sure. Terrence Shannon had moments in this playoff run, is he ready to be a regular contributor in that offense? Not sure. Julius Randle had good moments and bad moments--which he's done his entire career--do they move on from him or hope that he bounces back? Not sure. This team has Anthony Edwards and Jaden McDaniels and....a whole lot of "not sure". I'd say Shannon and Beringer are definitely gonna be a big part of next year's lineup and I would certainly keep Reid, but Gobert and Randle will probably be available and I'm not sure how eager they are to keep Dosunmu, Hyland or Conley. For a team that made back-to-back Western Finals and had moments of looking competitive with the Spurs, the Wolves might be a totally different team next year.

Predictions

Cavs - Knicks

The Cavs have been an unpredictable disappointment guided by Donovan Mitchell (finally reaching the pinnacle of his career right now), James Harden (overrated in his prime and now past his prime) and Even Mobley (projected to be the next super stud who is actually just a nice, overpaid play). When these three bring their best, the Cavs can run up the score, move the ball and play enough defense to hold a lead. But when they don't, it just looks awful and frustrating. Their wins against the Raptors and the Pistons were enlivening, but the losses were dispiriting. To be fair, those are two of the better defenses in the league--both much better than the Knicks--and the Cavs managed to find a way. 

The Knicks are playing their best ball of the season right now but, to be fair, those wins came against the overachieving Hawks and the lucky-to-be-here Sixers, not as impressive as the Cavs opponents. OG Anunoby has been a monster, Karl-Anthony Towns is attacking and avoiding the dumb mistakes that have plagued him his whole career, Josh Hart is running around like a mad man and Jalen Brunson has done just enough, mostly able to keep his powder dry. If the Knicks keep this going, they can roll right over the Cavs, who would fall to pieces under such an onslaught. But if the Knicks falter, have a bad shooting, or run into foul trouble, this series could sideways with a quickness. Indeed, the Knicks could be riding for a major fall--and Knicks fans know it better than anyone. 

The Knicks are the better team but are quite capable of blowing it. The Cavs have the necessary pieces but have yet to really properly deploy those pieces. I'm gonna go off the board: I think the key matchup is Jarret Allen v Mikal Bridges. When the Knicks are rolling, Bridges is the big beneficiary, but when he disappears (which was a lot against the Hawks), the Knicks don't get those extra productivity bumps; the Cavs have never found the right balance for Mobley and Allen, but against the Pistons, it felt to me like their roles emerged. If they overpower Mitchell, it'll require Towns and/or Hart to change up the way they play. It is a seemingly small thing, but if Allen can keep up his play at both ends, that makes everything so much easier for Mobley, which in turn makes everything harder for the Knicks defense. The Knicks think they can outscore the Cavs, but Allen could be the key to upsetting that equilibrium.

Also, unlike the Cavs-Pistons series where I thought the home team had the advantage, I think the opposite in this series. The Knicks can dominate in Cleveland while I think the Cavs could silence the NYC crowd. I'm going reverse home court advantage: I like the Cavs in 6.

Spurs - Thunder

Gonna be awesome. Can't wait. I haven't watched much Thunder (because neither the Suns nor the Lakers put up much to watch) this post-season and really only glimpses here and there of the Spurs (the Blazers were harmless fun but the Wolves games were all too one-sided to be watchable). I think the Thunder are the best roster in the NBA and really only the Spurs can hang with them. What's gonna happen? No idea. I will make this prediction: the Spurs wins will all be close, but the Thunder's wins might becomes blowouts. I'll take Thunder in 7 (solely because I want to see this match up the maximum number of times). 

(*) To me the answer is Naz Reid is underrated, but I've yet to meet anyone that agrees with me--which only proves me right! (Right?)

2025-26 NBA Playoffs (after one round)

East

Pistons 93-79 Magic

Magic 94-116 Pistons

After getting killed at halftime of Game Five, the Pistons finally turned their game back on and left the Magic in the dust. The Magic have a nice collection of players (which is why ever year we think "this is the year for the Magic!"), but I've never quite understood how they fit together (which is why they've been disappointing for 3 straight years). The Magic blew out the Hornets in the play-in, then won 3 out of 4 against the Pistons, then took a mighty lead to halftime of Game Five....but it was a just a sugar rush, a rare moment when everyone got hot. They couldn't sustain it. I thought Wendell Carter was great for the first few games but he faded down the stretch, Desmond Bane had his moments, too, but not enough of them and Jarrell Suggs is additive on defense but everyone else has to be going for his efforts to really shine through. I have newfound respect for Paulo (Cade Jr.) Banchero, that kid is a monster, but he's just a kid and he didn't have enough around him. The Pistons, a strangely similar team as the Magic, have better veterans and had more sustained success all season long, and though they are still too one-dimensional, at least they know what their dimension is and get back to that model often enough to be a tough out going forward. 

Knicks 140-89 Hawks

Stop! They're already dead! Man, this one was over super fast. OG Anunoby single-handedly destroyed the Hawks in Game Six and everyone else did, too. The Hawks just couldn't get anything going, while the Knicks were scoring in every way possible. Knicks in 6 was about right the whole time, but they did scuffle from time to time and let the Hawks have the feeling that they had a chance. The Hawks are moving in the right direction, I think they finally have a proper core to build around, I still like the coach and they gave the Knicks some truly feisty moments. But they weren't ready for this series and the Knicks were. The Knicks finally took control in the last two games and stifled the upstarts. 

Celtics 93-106 Sixers

Sixers 109-100 Celtics

Somewhere in the 3rd quarter of Game Five, the Celtics just kinda gave up. In that match they overplayed Tatum and Brown, got away from their bench mob style they employed so real all season long and wanted to have a star contest, which led to Joel Embiid coming back from the dead and Jaysun Tatum going back to the injured list. I'm a big fan of Coach Mazzulo but, man, I put this loss on him: he did everything right all season long and then mixed it up going into the post-season and I don't understand why. The bench mob style was working and even if you think that can't go deep in the playoffs, it got you a 3-1 lead in the first round, why not stick to what's working? In the 4th quarter of Game Seven Jaylen Brown finally came alive and there was an opportunity for the Celtics to shoot their way to the next round, but it just didn't happen. I understand if you think you have to tighten up the rotation against the Knicks or Cavs but the open style they played all year long should've worked against the Sixers. As for the Sixers, Tyrese Maxey (the LEADER of this team!) was awesome, Paul George really turned it on in the last few games, I thought rookie VJ Edgecombe was up and down (the Sixers won his good games and lost his bad games), and they were able to get some quality offense out of Embiid. If they can keep their ultra-fast guards in tune with their slow-burn veterans, they could give the Knicks a scare.

Cavs 110-112 (OT) Raptors

Raptors 102-114 Cavs

In Game Six, I thought the Raptors had the game won, like, three different times, but then I thought the Cavs had it won three different times, too! I can't remember a game that went back and forth so late like that. I still thought the Cavs were the better team throughout and really should've finished it off in Game Six. For the Cavs to let this get a 7th game was a real head-scratcher. But the Raptors play hard and took the Cavs to 7 games without Immanuael Quickley or Brandon Ingram, but when Scottie Barnes (*) got into foul trouble in the 3rd quarter of Game Seven, that was pretty much it for Toronto. It was like taking the engine out of a car....it still has a radio, I guess, but its not much of a car. The Cavs felt their anuses tightening but James Harden and Donovan Mitchell were both able to skate through Game Seven without much consternation. Man, Barnes just works so f'n hard, he alone makes the Raptors a pain in the ass, if they could get some real help around him (I should admit at this point I'm not much of an RJ Barrett fan, big guy can make plays from time to time but when push comes to shove he's sloppy and in over his head), the Raptors might be a real contender in the East next year. As for the Cavs, they got good minutes from Dean Wade and Max Strus and there were moments when Evan Mobley really came alive, you can see the outline of a really good team here, we'll see if they can give the Pistons a shock.

West

Nuggets 98-110 Wolves

Jaden McDaniels! Donte DiVincenzo is out, Anthony Edwards is out, no problem, Jaden McDaniels will make up the difference. It felt like the Nuggets finally had their ducks in a row, felt like the best supporting cast they'd had in a while, but Christain Braun wasn't the answer, Cam Johnson was up and down and never really felt right in the rotation and Bruce Brown wasn't the same guy he was when they went on their championship run. Jamal Murray had maybe his best season but he was asked to do too much in the post-season and Nikola Jokic (another MVP season, I say) was just gassed at the end of these games and never felt in command the way he usually does. There's gonna be some serious soul-searching this summer in Denver, because it felt last summer like they'd finally figured it out....and they had not. As for the Wolves, hey man Rudy Gobert has ALWAYS been good against Jokic! And Julius Randall does not back down from any situation and they got good minutes from Naz Reid and Mike Conley and the rest of their rotation was ready for anything. This Wolves squad, assuming they got Edwards back soon, is gonna be a tough out for the Spurs. 

Lakers 98-78 Rockets

Man, as flimsy as the Lakers 3-1 lead felt in this series, in a year when 3-1 leads were going by the wayside, it still never felt like the Rockets were gonna get their shit together. I thought Coach Udoka was the right guy for this roster and I thought Kevin Durant was the right guy to add last summer, but it looks to me like those are the two dudes that kept this team from rising up. Coach Udoka just never found Jabari Smith's role and he never gave the keys to Reed Sheppard--dude, it doesn't matter if you don't like those guys, those are the guys you have! Coach never figured out how to build an offense with them. Instead he turned the team entirely over to KD, who was good enough to pile up stats but not good enough to lead a team to wins in the post-season. I still like most of what this roster has but, man, Durant has to go and I suddenly think the coach has to go, too, even though it wasn't that long ago they felt like the ideal guiding lights. This is Sengun's team, Thompson is the perfect right-hand man, but Jabari and Reed have to find their place on this squad and if they can't work them in, then this team will go nowhere. The Rockets don't need to re-build, they just need to re-think what they've got. As for the Lakers, Lebron, baby, still got it!

Quarterfinals

Cavs @ Pistons

The Cavs really should be the better team and while the Pistons don't play with frenzy the way the Raptors do, they will be more reliable scorers and defenders, which is gonna be just as hard for the Cavs to deal with. The Magic were young guns playing with house money and they caught the Pistons off guard, but the Pistons weathered the storm and are the better (version of the same) team, but the veteran savvy of the Cavs is a totally different matter. The Cavs and Pistons were just waiting for each other, but they both scuffled against younger, hungrier (if dumber) teams that made them each work in a way that feels depleting rather than invigorating. So who has more left in the tank? Well, the Pistons are still too one-dimensional and for all the praise being heaped on Tobias Harris, I thought he mostly sucked until Game Seven; but Harris the vet against the other vets, should probably be a more consistent scorer. Jalen Duren had troubles early on against Wendell Carter, but eventually managed to make the plays necessary; I kinda think against Evan Mobley, it'll be the other way around: Duren should have his way with Mobley early on, it is a matter of whether Mobley can swing the momentum (which is a 50/50 prospect). The supporting cast of the Cavs (Wade, Strus, Schroeder) actually strikes me as better than the Pistons supporting cast (Robinson, Thompson, Stewart, Huerter), but not wildly so and actually Thompson alone can reek the Raptors-style havoc that may pull the Cavs apart. To me this comes down to the Pistons one dimension (Cade Cunningham) versus the Cavs' two-headed monster (Donovan Mitchell, James Harden). If the Cavs can comfortably pass back responsibility and get buckets, they can win this series; but if they struggle then Cade's consistency can rule the day. Though I find the Pistons' one-dimensional-ness a liability, I think it's more reliable than the Cavs. I think the Pistons take this in 7.

Sixers @ Knicks

The Sixers found a potent mix of youthful energy (Maxey, Edgecombe) and veteran contemplation (George, Embiid) against the Celtics and were able to pull the better team apart. Can they do that to the Knicks? Well, the trick to the Knicks is: they will either pull themselves apart or they won't, the opponent doesn't much matter. I think the Knicks are better when Karl-Anthony Towns is aggressive, when Towns is the one setting the scene for the Knicks offense as opposed to Jalen Brunson, who I think is better as the emergency option, the change of pace guy that flips the script. Starting with Towns and moving to Brunson is their best bet, I think, because it gets the supporting cast open shots early on and then morphs them to crashing the boards and/or getting into transition defense. If their energy flows to getting everyone involved on offense first and then defense to close, that just strikes me as the best possible Knicks effort. The Sixers seem overly reliant on Embiid, babying him along early in the game, hoping they can get something out of him later on. To me, this is Maxey's team, you let Maxey figure out the best way to utilize Embiid and just trust that model. That said, Embiid has been effective and if he starts hitting his 3's, then it might really stretch the Knicks defense out of shape, allowing room for Edgecombe to tear shit up. I think the best version of the Knicks is better than the best version of the Sixers, but the break-glass-in-case-of-emergency Sixers will probably be better than whatever the Knicks collapse into. It is important for the Knicks to control these games and I think they will, but I think the Sixers are offbeat enough to make them work. I like Knicks in7

Lakers @ Thunder

I didn't watch a single minute of the Thunder over the Suns. On the one hand, I haven't seen them so I don't know what they look like; on the other hand, I didn't have to watch them, which suggests they're doing just fine and I know exactly what that looks like. The Thunder are the most low-key colossus of my lifetime: they don't rush, they don't fret, they don't dominate, they're just better than you. They don't make dumb mistakes and they don't panic. (**) Are they better than the Lakers? Absolutely! The Lakers have been without Luka Doncic so far in the post-season, I presume he'll be returning soon. The rest of the squad had a nice little run against the Rockets, a perfect team-building exercise, where Hachimura had moments, Luke Kennard looked damn good at times, Austin Reaves stretched his legs after some time off and Deandre Ayton is steadily becoming what they want him to be. And Lebron is still a  maestro. If I'm the Lakers, I'd like to give this iteration of the team a couple games before bringing back Luka. I want to see if this new team concept can really find the gumption to surprise the Thunder in Game One (not impossible). Then we see how OKC reacts, then the Lakers can bring back Luka in Game Three (if he's ready). Then it becomes Luka's team again but ideally with a period of everyone figuring out their best contribution. Meh, its worth something like a shot. I like this Lakers squad, they're playing pretty good and if OKC falters or has some weird out of body experience, I think this Laker team is the kind of team that can rise to the occasion. But I don't think OKC will falter much, they've played well against the Lakers over the years, I don't think they're afraid of Luka or Lebron or the Laker aura. In fact I think they see the Lakers as exactly the kind of team they can finish off pronto. I like the Thunder in 5. 

Wolves @ Spurs

An interesting one. The Spurs are probably a year ahead of schedule, the Wolves have made back-to-back Final Fours. Veteran savvy or youthful exuberance? I like the Spurs, obviously everyone credits Wemby, and he's due some flowers. But I think this is De'Aaron Fox's team and the real marginal growth is coming from Stefon Castle. At this point, Wemby is still just a bonus, which is why they're a year early (***). What is the relationship between Wemby and Gobert? Who has whose number in that matchup? Don't know yet, but we're gonna find out. Losing Divencenzo is a real heart breaker for the Wolves and if Edwards misses significant time, then this is probably a wrap. But if Edwards can counter Fox and McDaniels can muzzle Castle, then this is a real series. Who do the Spurs have to match up with Julius Randle? Randle is the wild card, it feels like the other matchups will neutralize each other, so it is up to Randle to shoot the Wolves into (or out of) the next round. I think the Spurs aren't quite ready, I think Gobert is playing really well right now and gonna take it to Wemby, I think Edwards, McDaniels and Randle can overpower Fox and Castle. I like the Wolves in 6.

(*) How do we get Scottie Barnes and Paulo Banchero together? Or Barnes with Cade and a Thompson twin? Dear God.....

(**) When I first sat down to do my MVP evaluation, I didn't even have Shai Gilgeous in my top 10. This is largely because OKC is so well-balanced that SGA doesn't have to go above and beyond all that often, SGA doesn't have to bust out and put up big numbers because the team beyond him can easily make up for an off night. On the other hand, the team has the luxury to go off from time to time because their leader is so poised and consistent that he makes things easy for everyone else. So is SGA the MVP because he's so slyly awesome or is he not because his supporting cast makes it easy for him? What a beautiful conundrum for OKC to have. 

(***) Oh and if Dillon Harper becomes next year's blow up guy for the Spurs, that means they'll be able to keep Wemby on a pitch count for another year. This isn't even Wemby's team yet--and probably won't be for two more years! Wemby is still just icing, they don't even need him to be cake for another year or two!

2025-26 NBA Playoffs (after 5 games)

East

Pistons 105-113 Magic

Pistons 88-94 Magic

Magic 109-116 Pistons

Okay, with the Magic up 3-1 after 4 games, a complete re-evaluation is in order. The Pistons were the top seed in the East but we all knew they were too one-dimensional; the Magic has a nice batch of talent but this was another season of mediocrity and chaos behind the scenes. Of the play-in teams, the Magic felt the LEAST likely to test the Pistons. The Magic stole Game One, okay that happens. The Pistons rebounded in Game Two as expected. But back in Orlando, the Magic came alive and kinda easily handled the #1 seed in back to back outings. Again, the Magic have nice talent, no doubting that, but Paulo Banchero and Franz Wagner have never been a good match, their coach seems like a weirdo and the bench is nothing special. Felt like the Pistons had been exposed as too thin. Jalen Duren has been getting worked by Wendell Carter (and by his girlfriend on TikTok), Tobias Harris has been underwhelming when the Pistons really need him to be the veteran scorer, Duncan Robinson has moments then disappears, Daniss Jenkins had been a fine discovery off the bench but he seems to have vanished, Kevin Huerter has been injured. That thin bench just keeps looking thinner (oh, and Caris LaVert has been utterly useless, I don't think he's playable). 

I thought the Pistons had turned a corner and the Magic had not. After 5 games, it feels like the other way around. For the Magic, Banchero has been great, Carter has been great, Suggs has been crazy active (but slightly foul prone), and the injury to Wagner hasn't set them back at all. Personally, I still think the Pistons are gonna get this done. I think Cade is the star of this match up and the Magic have already overacheived. The down side is no matter how this turns out, I'm gonna feel bad for the loser: either the Pistons let a great season and #1 seed slip away or the Magic gack up a 3-1 lead (which would pretty much spell the end of their beleaguered coach). Either way, YIPES!

I gotta go with Pistons in Game Six and Seven. I still think they're the better team and Cade has been doing it by himself all year long, shouldn't matter now. 

Celtics 108-100 Sixers

Celtics 128-96 Sixers

Sixers 113-97 Celtics

The Celtics have been the better team throughout this match until Game Five when the Sixers resurrected Joel Embiid and gave their offense an entirely different feel, which inexplicably threw off the Celtics. Embiid was pretty good in the 2nd half, but there was still no reason for the Celtics to let this one get away, they were doing just fine until they just stopped playing midway through the 3rd quarter. Rather then utilizing their very effective bench, they overplayed Brown and Tatum and let Embiid set the tempo....why? I can't help but feel like Coach Mazzulo wanted to go back to Philly. 

Both teams are better on the road, so my guess is the Celtics will finish this is Game Six. For the Celtics it's all about the 3-point shooting, if they can find their range again, this series will over pronto. 

Knicks 108-109 Hawks

Knicks 114-98 Hawks

Hawks 97-126 Knicks

The Knicks are the better side, the Hawks are nice but nothing special, both of the Hawks wins were by a combined 2 points and the only thing keeping them afloat is CJ McCollum's heat check. For the Knicks, OG Anunoby has been a monster, Karl Anthony Towns has been good when he's attacking, Jalen Brunson has taken over when needed and Josh Hart has been additive on defense (and not much on offense). Mikael Bridges has been  kinda awful and the rest of the bench has yet to add much, but the Knicks are the better team and they should've finished this off by now. The Hawks are setting up nicely for next season, but I don't see them moving on to the next round. The Knicks cruised in the last two games, I expect them to win in Game Six. 

Cavs 104-126 Raptors

Cavs 89-93 Raptors

Raptors 120-125 Cavs

This series has been a slog because Scottie Barnes has been playing his ass off. The Cavs still seem like the better team and when they've gotten their offense moving, they've won rather easily. Game Five struck me as where this series will go from here: both teams traded baskets for 3 quarters, then the Raptors went cold down the stretch. If it's a shooting contest, gotta go with the Cavs. But the Raptors work hard and sludge up everything, so this could go seven games, but I still think the Cavs are the better team.  

West

Thunder 121-109 Suns

Thunder 131-122 Suns

I didn't watch one second of this series, don't think I even saw any highlights. Saw the Suns complaining about the refs and people still trying to pretend like the Thunder are "villains". Whatever.

Spurs 120-108 Blazers

Spurs 114-93 Blazers

Blazers 95-114 Spurs

The Blazers had a good season, Dani Avdija busted out, the rotation feels like its ready to take another step forward (and will be welcoming Dame Lillard back next season); unfortunately their brand new owner seems like a cheapskate, he's already low balling their interim coach when he's already likely to be one of the lowest paid coaches in the league (he had a good year, hire him already, good gawd!). That said, the Spurs are better, deeper and already ready to take a step forward. The Spurs had a bit of scare when Wemby went down hard and missed a game and half due to concussion. But even still the Blazers couldn't take advantage and this was over in 5 (like we all knew it would be).

Nuggets 96-113 Wolves

Nuggets 96-112 Wolves

Wolves 113-125 Nuggets

Okay, this was already set to be a bare knuckle brawl. Then in Game Three the Wolves lost Donte DiVincenzo in the first minute and Anthony Edwards just a few minutes later. The Nuggets....lost anyway, because Aaron Gordon is just not 100% right now and the rest of the supporting cast just isn't as good as we thought they would be. The Wolves were up 3-1 after 4 but without two of their main guys. So who's more injured? The Wolves only need 1 more victory but they're missing their best player (and then hopefully would get Edwards back in the next round), while the Nuggets need (now) 2 more wins but they're missing their third best player. The Wolves better win it tonight in Minneapolis or they will be kicking themselves all summer. 

Lakers 112-108 (OT) Rockets

Lakers 96-115 Rockets

Rockets 99-93 Lakers

The Rockets never found any consistency all year long, were playing like shit down the stretch, fell behind 3-0 to the Lakers and then ruled out Kevin Durant (....with an injury? What injury?). Didn't feel like it was going well for them but they did bounce back in the last two games and have some momentum and identity going back home for Game Six and the Lakers are still without Luka Doncic (but have returned Austin Reaves). I think this one is going to Game Seven, but I gotta go with the Lakers to finish it back home. 

2025-26 NBA Playoffs (after 2 games)

East

Magic 112-101 Pistons

Magic 83-98 Pistons

The Magic's surprisingly effective performance in Game One was not as shocking as all that. The Magic rallied through the play-on game and kept it rolling against a Piston squad that hasn't played a meaningful game in weeks--hey, good for them. I had Pistons in 5 and I'm sticking with that pick. In Game Two, the Pistons slunked through the 1st half and then blew the game open right out of halftime and I think that's more representative of the dynamic between these two teams than Game One. The Magic had a nice bubble but I think that's over, I expect the Pistons to be the better team for the next three games. 

Sixers 91-123 Celtics

Sixers 111-97 Celtics

The Sixers taking Game Two was eye-opening but their speed (specifically Maxey and Edgecombe) has the power to overwhelm anyone at any time and I can see them winning another game or two but I still think the Celtics are the better, deeper team and will get through this series. But I'm open to the idea that the Sixers can put a shock into the Celtics (though I still think they're better without Embiid). 

Hawks 102-113 Knicks

Hawks 107-106 Knicks

I thought the Knicks weren't very good in Game One and still won rather easily. I didn't think they're very good in Game Two, either, but were on their way to an easy win when the Hawks suddenly came alive and stole it. I thought this series would be hotly contested and go seven games and I still think that. The Hawks are a nice team but when push comes to shove, the Knicks still have more options to get a win than the Hawks do. 

Raptors 113-126 Cavs

Raptors 105-115 Cavs

The Raptors are a nice team but without Immanuel Quickley they just a man short of keeping up with the Cavs. Quickley may return in Game Three and I would give the Raptors a puncher's chance in the next two games. But not really beyond that. Getting a little push might be a good thing for the Cavs--it might be even better if they just show up and take the next two on the road. The Raptors could still get hot, the Cavs could turn funky, but I doubt it. I think the Cavs will wrap this up fairly quick.  

West

Suns 94-119 Thunder

Suns 107-120 Thunder

Yawn! Devin Booker complaining about the refs after getting thoroughly spanked in the first two games is kinda embarrassing. I hope for the Suns' sake that OKC just finishes this in four, it'll be so much easier for everyone involved. 

Blazers 96-111 Spurs

Blazers 106-103 Spurs

The Blazers just couldn't hang in Game One and frankly were the lesser team in Game Two. But when Wemby went out with a concussion (no word on his availability going forward, but I suspect he'll be out for Game Three), the Blazers were able to spark that into a victory. I like the Blazers but even without Wemby, I think the Spurs are probably the better team. They're both young, so this could still go either way--and without Wemby I don't think anyone would see this as a glorious upset, more just an unfortunate showing for a Spurs team that is probably already a year ahead of schedule anyway. This is an interesting series, was gonna be a fun watch either way but if the Spurs have to do this without Wemby, it'll be a hell of a test for them--and it wouldn't be a shock if the Blazers move on to the next round. 

Wolves 105-116 Nuggets

Wolves 119-114 Nuggets

Even though the Nuggets have a better supporting cast than they've had in a while, they are still too reliant on Jokic and Murray, who both looked gassed in the 4th quarters of these games. Jokic's shooting hasn't been great, while the Wolves seem to be rounding into shape. I had the Nuggets making the final four, but the Wolves could tip this one over real quick in the next two games (and if Wemby can't make it back....dang, man, it could be the Wolves in the final four again).

Rockets 98-107 Lakers

Rockets 94-101 Lakers

Yipes! The Rockets look like absolute shit. The Lakers aren't even doing anything and they cruised in these first two games. The Rockets offense is just not good--Coach Udoka: it really doesn't even matter if you don't like Reed Sheppard, he's all you've got! Udoka's inability to find a groove with Sheppard is killing this team. And--okay, I'll be that guy--Kevin Durant's one man show isn't helping either. They've got to root out the depth of this lineup to find a way to move on and relying on Durant to do everything just isn't gonna get it done. Meanwhile, the Lakers are resting their two best scorers and have encountered no obstacle whatsoever. I thought the Rockets would find themselves in the post-season and I was wrong. Unless Sengun takes over, this team is not gonna win a single game. 

2025-26 Champions League Quarterfinals (2nd leg)

Quarterfinals 2nd Leg

Atletico Madrid 1-2 Barcelona (agg 3-2)

Wow!  I figured Barca would come out swinging, so I was not too surprised when they scored in the 5th minute (though the bad giveaway in Atletico's defensive half was a bit odd).  Not surprised, either, when Barca tied up the aggregate just a few minutes later, on some crazy action in front of the goal. But I was pleasantly surprised when Atletico responded before halftime and re-took the lead.  (Interesting that the refs missed rather obvious corner kicks for each team, either or both really could've shaken up this match--both sides were balling out in the 1st half). In the 2nd half, I thought Atletico was the better side, felt just as dangerous on the attack and even tighter in the back. I thought the off-sides call that negated what would've been the tying goal for Barca was the right call, but I thought the red card on the defense a little later on was a bit much (the other defender was right there and the contact was a foul but not a dangerous play or anything). I knew Barca would be back in this game, knew this was gonna be a good one. Seeing Atletico go through feels like the better team won.  

Liverpool 0-2 Paris SG (agg 0-4)

Yeah, Liverpool just never got anything going in either leg. They held out as long as they could, PSG didn't seal it til relatively late in the 2nd half. But, Liverpool had no attack at all, so its not like there was much chance of them tying it up. PSG is the best team I've seen in this tourney, Liverpool is a nice squad but they just don't have the firepower to hang with this loaded PSG squad. 

Bayern Munich 4-3 Real Madrid (agg 6-4)

What a great match! Back and forth action throughout, both teams were dangerous at all times, tons of goals, and capped off by one of the most cold-blooded goals I've ever seen! Bayern is back, man! They've been good-but-just-not-there for a few years now but they seem to have shed whatever was ailing them--and they seem to have pawned it off on Real Madrid. Real is still really really good but this year's model is snakebit: bounced in the Copa del Rey (in the round of 16!), quarters in the Champions League (to rejuvenated Bayern Munich), and a distant 2nd in La Liga (to Barca), where they have a ton a of head scratching finishes this season. Gonna be a struggle of a summer in Madrid (well, not on the Atletico side of town).

Arsenal 0-0 Sporting CP (agg 1-0)

Sporting is rugged, man, nothing comes easy against these guys. But they also don't sport much of an attack, so not surprising that Arsenal was able to make their one goal (their one moment of brilliance in 180 minutes against Sporting) hold up. Tricky now, though: Sporting made for such a weird competitor, it's kinda hard to tell how good Arsenal is. 

Semifinals

Paris Saint-Germain - Bayern Munich

This is your final right here. I think PSG is the best team I've seen in this tourney, I think Bayern is the 2nd best team--and arguably playing even better right now. PSG better get a decisive result at home because going back to Munich is not gonna be much fun this year. *popcorn munch*

Atletico Madrid - Arsenal 

Atletico had to go against well-known foe (Barcelona), while Arsenal went up against a scrappy batch of nobodies (Sporting CP), so.....which is the better team? On the one hand, it's easy to say that Arsenal probably would've fallen to Barcelona; on the other, I can totally see Sporting CP giving Atletico Madrid the fight of their lives. So....which is the better team? I have no idea. My gut says Atletico has been playing harder and finding more success this season but Arsenal is right there with them....so which is the better team? I look forward to finding out. 

2025-26 Champions League (Quarterfinals)

1st Leg

Real Madrid 1-2 Bayern Munich

Wonderful soccer! Both teams were dangerous all the way through, Bayern was able to finish right before half and then again right after, but Real never went away, back and forth action and Madrid was able to claw back a goal. Over the last few years, Bayern has been close but they just haven't been themselves lately--they're starting to look like the old Bayern again. Real is strong, they can be frisky on the road, but I think Bayern finishes this back home. Ought to be a classic either way. 

Sporting CP 0-1 Arsenal

Arsenal's goal came in the 90th minute, Havertz finds the hole in the defense, expertly takes down the pass and sneaks it past the keeper. Whew! The whole match long I was thinking the Arsenal was the better team, the more confident in possession, but Sporting just keeps coming, they never let up, and if I was an Arsenal fan I'd sure feel better with a goal on the road. Didn't feel like that goal was coming, but they snuck one in at the last minute and I think Arsenal's looking pretty good going back home. That said, Sporting is relentless, they don't know how to stop, so Arsenal should coming out looking to add to that lead. 

Barcelona 0-2 Atletico Madrid

Just not Barca's day, seemed like every promising attack went awry, unlucky bounces on defense, goofy red card, Atletico just kinda did whatever they wanted on this day. They'll probably regret not scoring more because I doubt Barca will be this bad in the return match. Atletico's looking good but I wouldn't count out Barca just yet.  

Paris-St. Germain 2-0 Liverpool

Liverpool's press defense was rugged for about 10 minutes--didn't feel like PSG was ever gonna cross midfield! But PSG did, got into the box, scored a weird-looking goal and that was that. Liverpool never got any offense going, PSG thoroughly dominated the 2nd half. I suppose Liverpool has a puncher's chance back at home, but PSG is clearly the better team and with a two goal advantage, I'd be pretty surprised if Liverpool gets 'em back.   

2025-26 Champions League (Round of 16)

1st leg

Galatasaray 1-0 Liverpool

For the first few minutes of the game, Galatasaray kept giving the ball away in their own backfield--over and over again!--that it felt for a while like they were never going to get the ball across midfield and were desperately trying to give the game away as quick as possible. But soon enough, they did finally move the ball downfield, got a corner and scored in the 5th minute. Liverpool must've felt shell shocked: they had already blown a half dozen good opportunities before the audience was even paying attention and now they're down 1-0. After that it was a fairly even game, they each had a goal taken away: Liverpool for a handball (correct call) and Galatasaray for an offside (eh, that was 50-50, the dude really wasn't in the play). I expect Liverpool to put up a fuller richer effort back in England, so this one is not over.

Atalanta 1-6 Bayern Munich

Bayern came to play, Atalanta didn't know what hit them. Bayern scored, then scored again almost instantly, then scored again almost instantly, then peppered the keeper a few more times before the half and it was clear pretty quick that this one was over. I honestly snoozed through most the 2nd half, every time I looked up Bayern had scored again. Atalanta is here because Dortmund collapsed badly in the last round, not saying they don't belong here but they clearly weren't ready for Bayern. This one's over. 

Atletico Madrid 5-2 Tottenham

Oh man! Early on, the keeper lost his balance and it was 1-0; a minute later the defender loses his footing and it was 2-0; keeper slips again, 3-0 before the game has even started. Tottenham did well to keep playing, keep pushing, they got back a coupla goals, but this will be one of those matches that Tottenham fans remember for years and years. Does Tottenham have a shot back home in the next leg? I doubt it, man, they shouldn't get crushed this bad again, but this was bad enough. I definitely like Atletico's chances to move on. 

Newcastle United 1-1 Barcelona

Oof! Really thought Newcastle outplayed Barca, they really came to play while Barca felt like they were just chillin'. Thought Newcastle did a good job on the attack, pushed Barca back consistently, kept them out of scoring range pretty effectively. Felt let a hard earned draw, then Newcastle got a stunning goal in the 87th minute and it seemed like Newcastle was gonna score the stunning upset. Then in extra time, a foul in the box (the right call, it was a legit foul) and Barca scratches back the draw with a buzzer beater. Ooooooohhhhhhhhh maaaaaaaannnnnnnn. Still live in the 2nd leg, if Newcastle can pick up where they left off with the attacking intensity, they can catch Barca waffling, this one's definitely still in play. 

Leverkusen 1-1 Arsenal

Arsenal felt to me like the better side, but in the first half they played to a straight nothing-nothing draw. Right out of the half Leverkusen connected on a corner kick and it felt like that was gonna be all the scoring. But Arsenal found the net with a PK (I'm blanking on the play, don't remember if I thought it was the right call or not), just before the close and they're going back to England with an even chance to move on. Leverkusen is a nice team but they didn't feel dangerous on the attack, I think I'd take Arsenal to move on. 

Bodo 3-0 Sporting CP

Bodo! Never heard of Bodo before but when they scorched Inter Milan in back to back games in the round of 24, they definitely caught my attention. They're grit and grind, man, they hustle, they make the plays that the preening rock stars of soccer never follow through on and that edge has served them well so far, I can totally see it working through at least one more round. But, then again: I thought this match was actually pretty even with Bodo being uniquely successful on their chances, but I didn't think they overwhelmed Sporting by any means. Can Sporting can go back home and find 3 goals? I dunno, maybe, I can't rule it just yet because I don't know these teams at all. I'm all into Bodo, rooting for them, certainly looking good (so far), but Sporting still has a chance to move on and I expect them to bring it in the 2nd leg. 

Paris-St Germain 5-2 Chelsea

(Did I watch this one? I'm not remembering this one)

Real Madrid 3-0 Manchester City

1st half hat trick for Valverde and that was pretty much it for Man City. They were nice goals, too, they weren't cheapies, they were sweet. Didn't feel like Man City couldn't hang, just that Real made the most of their chances. Real's in the driver's seat but Man City can have a good day, too, so worth keeping an eye on.  

2nd leg

Sporting 5-0 (AET) Bodo (agg 5-3)

Ahhh, yeah....that's too bad. I was all in on Bodo fever but this result was not particularly surprising. Bodo had no attack at all, they seemed to think that just bunkering was going to be good enough and that did not work. Hey, even in the 1st leg I didn't think Bodo wildly outplayed Sporting, I just thought they converted their opportunities better. But in the 2nd leg, Sporting attacked nonstop--even through 2 OT periods--and Bodo just never got any offense going at all. Sorry, Bodo, I was rooting for you, but your time was up. Sporting is frisky, gonna be a tough out.

Arsenal 2-0 Leverkusen (agg 3-1)

Felt bad for Leverkusen's goalie, he made a ton of great saves--and Arsenal's goals were both untouchable, certainly not his fault. But Arsenal attacked and Levekusen just didn't, Leverkusen just didn't generate much going forward. The 1st leg was even, maybe Arsenal was a tad better, but in the 2nd leg I thought Arsenal dominated Levekusen. Hard to tell, actually, how good Arsenal is, Leverkusen didn't put up enough of a fight to really bring out Arsenal. 

Manchester City 1-2 Real Madrid (agg 1-5)

Real just got it done, Man City tried but they couldn't get anything consistent going forward and they had 2 goals taken away for off-sides (both calls were correct). I thought Man City did their best and it just wasn't good enough. As for Real, didn't even think they played their best. 

Chelsea 0-3 Paris SG (agg 2-8)

Oh, Chelsea. Blasted in the first game, out of sorts in the 2nd leg, too. PSG finished their chances, Chelsea did not. 

Barcelona 7-2 Newcastle (agg 8-3)

Wow, a really tight, tense match....for the 1st half. Barca was getting goals but Newcastle was matching and they never seemed rattled, felt like Newcastle had...I dunno...figured something out, because they didn't seem afraid of Barca. Then Barca got a PK right before half (ehh, I get the call, there was contact, but I would've let it go, I think it was a 50/50 call) and snatched the lead. But before you know it, Barca scored three quick goals and, well, that was that. Felt bad for Newcastle, they were really bringing it for about 45 minutes but they couldn't make it mean anything. Barca is definitely looking good.

Liverpool 4-0 Galatasaray (agg 4-1)

Similar to the Barca match, it was tense and tight and a fascinating match until halftime. Then Liverpool just kept scoring in the 2nd half and Galatasaray just couldn't stop them. I thought Liverpool was the better team throughout, it was only a matter of time before Liverpool found the goal. But once they did, good lord, the avalanche just kept getting bigger and bigger as it came down the mountain. 

Tottenham 3-2 Atletico Madrid (agg 5-7)

Fun match, Tottenham balled out but they couldn't keep Atletico off the scoreboard and that was just it. Atletico is looking good, thought Tottenham was actually a pretty good opponent.

Bayern Munich 4-1 Atalanta (agg 10-2)

Didn't watch any of this, didn't have to, it was plainly obvious from the first leg that Atalanta just wasn't up to this. Bayern is heating up, gonna be a tough out. 

2025-26 NFL (Super Bowl)

AFC

Pats 10-7 Broncos

Crazy game! The Broncos were up 7-0 early, got into FG range and then had to decide whether to go for it or take the 3 points. The weather was still okay at this point but everyone knew a blizzard was coming. So do you just take the easy points and hope that's enough or do you go for the kill shot knowing that the rest of the game is gonna be a sludgefest? I'll tell ya: to me it was a 50/50 call. Sitting on my couch I couldn't decide; taking the easy points made sense but pressing your luck to go for even more made sense, too. I didn't know which way to go but I had the feeling even then that this was going to be the decision of the game. The Broncos went for it, didn't make it, never scored again. To be fair, an even more important play came just before halftime when QB Stidham made a really hideous attempt at throwing the ball away (*) to avoid a sack and it was called a backward pass (**), gave the ball to the Pats inside the 10 yard line for a quick TD and, well, that was the ball game. The Pats had a one nice drive after halftime to take the 10-7 lead, then the blizzard came and it was just comedy at that point. The Broncos probably should've won this game, if Stidham avoids that one big mistake, that's probably enough to finish the game. But, they made the wrong choice on the FG and one bad play destroyed them. As for the Pats, well, they avoided the big mistake, took advantage of what came their way and they're going to the Super Bowl. 

NFC

Rams 27-31 Seahawks

The Rams had their chance to steal it and they came up short, the Seahawks had their chance to blow it and they made the plays down the stretch. The game was mostly back and forth, but I thought the Seahawks were generally the better team with just enough of an opening for the Rams to maybe steal it. This is more what I expected from the Niners the week before, but they were just too depleted; but the Rams, also a familiar division opponent of the Seahawks, still had enough in the tank to push them. When division teams get together, you just never know what's gonna happen because of the familiarity. When a division game is close, it isn't a surprise and when it's a blow out--it isn't a surprise either! Division opponents just produce a different game. So are the Seahawks more tested or less tested because they only played familiar opponents in the playoffs?

Super Bowl

Seahawks @ Pats (+4.5) (o/u 45.5)

The line hasn't budged since it opened and I'm kinda shocked by that. I thought 4.5 was way low and I still think so and I don't understand why I'm (apparently) the only person that thinks that. Listen Pats fans: you've had a great season, you've found your star QB, you've got the right coach and you are moving in the right direction in a division that is stagnating and a conference that is eroding. But, you still didn't play anyone all year long, you got the Texans and the Broncos in flukey conditions, you skipped past Burrow and Mahomes and Lamar, you didn't have to play the Bills a 3rd time and your QB has been way more lucky than good in the post-season. The Pats won all their games, they did what they had to do, I'm not saying they're a fluke or they don't belong here, I'm just saying there's no metric in the universe that suggests to me that they are better than the Seahawks.

The Seahaks stumbled early to the Niners (division foe at full strength), against the Bucs (who started the season red hot) and lost to the Rams (who were red hot in the middle of the season). Otherwise they more or less pummeled everyone else they played. QB Sam Darnold had a solid season, WR Smith-Njigba had a mind-bogglingly awesome season (how is he always open?) and that defense got it done week after week. The Seahawks were slow to get on my radar but once I noticed them, it was hard not to see that they were one of the better teams of the NFC all season long. The NFC was better than the AFC and the Seahawks played a tougher schedule throughout than the Pats. 

The Pats' best hope is that the Seahawks D is over-aggressive and sloppy, that WR Smith-Nigba can be neutralized thus crippling the Seahawk attack, that QB Darnold will turn back into a pumpkin and that QB Maye makes a handful of hero plays and steals a victory. I think that's way too much to expect. I think what is much more likely is that the Seahawk offense grinds a bit, then gets going and the Pats offense just grinds. Shutting down Smith-Njigba is precisely what Belichick would do but that guy is just always open, I think if they over-pursue him, the Pats D might completely crater. Also, I think its much more likely that Darnold makes big plays, not Maye.

Basically my point is: this has 41-10 written all over it. That's what I thought 2 weeks ago, still what I think today. The Seahawks are the better team on both sides of the ball and they are ready to play; the Pats are a nice story but they have overachieved and just aren't as good in any way. It would require a series of crazy misfortunes for the Pats to even have a chance in this match and if the Seahawks don't turn the ball over, I don't see how they lose. 

Gotta go Seahawks big enough that the Pats get some garbage time. I'll say Seahawks 31-17 (Seahawks and the over) and though I'm always up for a competitive match, I think the Pats will be comfortably behind from beginning to end. 

(*) Young QBs out there: either learn to throw the ball away earlier or learn to take the sack. The difference between a veteran play and the worst play of your life is about 1.5 seconds. Stidham made the mistake that all young QB's should learn not to make.

(**) I dunno, man, I thought there was contact on his passing arm, I'm not sure that's really a backward pass, but, oh well, it is what it is. 

2025-26 NCAA Football

Championship

(10) Miami 21-27 (1) Indiana

Really impressed with Miami for coming back and making a for-real game out of this after getting nothing done in the 1st half. Miami's pass rush was able to significantly slow down the Hoosier attack, holding them to a 10-0 scoreline at the half. Indiana looked in every way like the better team, but Miami's D got after QB Mendoza and RB Hemby (yipes! Those two in particular got roughed up in this match) and kept Indiana's dominance to a low boil. 

In the 2nd half Miami was much better at moving the ball and even turned up the defense a bit. Indiana was able to stave off an upset behind a blocked punt that went for a TD. That really kept the Hooisers in the game. Even though Indiana felt like the better team for the most part, Miami kept the game within striking distance, only to be thwarted by a last second interception. 

Much props to Miami. When the time came to crank it up, they cranked. Winning at Texas A&M, then at Ohio State, then beating a red hot Ole Miss at their own game (running the ball to chew up the clock), was masterful stuff. Then getting the championship on their home field must've been tantalizing. They stood up to a superiors opponent and hung tough for 60 minutes against one of the better college football squads I've ever seen, 

As for the Hoosiers, I don't know where they came from, I'd be surprised if they're back next year. This goes alongside Goran Ivanseivc at Wimbledon as the most improbable champion I've ever seen. The QB never missed, the running game had variations, the D-line was stout and the special teams made plays. They were organized and led brilliantly and this team just did what needed to be done all season long. A remarkable championship run that I suspect we'll never see again.

My bowl picks (just winners): 26-20

Correct

Kennesaw Sate 6-41 Western Michigan

(9) Alabama 34-24 (8) Oklahoma

(10) Miami 10-3 (7) Texas A&M

(11) Tulane 10-41 (6) MIssissippi

(12) James Madison 34-51 (5) Oregon

Washington State 34-21 Utah State

Toledo 22-27 Louisville

Western Kentucky 27-16 Southern Mississippi

California 31-35 Hawaii

Central Michigan 7-34 Northwestern

Florida Int'l 20-57 UT-San Antonio

Penn State 22-10 Clemson

(22) Georgia Tech 21-25 (12) Brigham Young

Miami 3-18 Fresno State

North Texas 49-47 San Diego State

Louisiana State 35- (21) Houston

Georgia Southern 29-10 Appalachian State

Coastal Carolina 14-23 Louisiana Tech

(18) Michigan 27-41 (13) Texas

Nebraska 22-44 (15) Utah

(6) Oregon 23-0 (4) Texas Tech

(9) Alabama 3-38 (1) Indiana

Rice 10-41 Texas State

Navy 35-13 Cincinnati

(5) Oregon 22-56 (1) Indiana

(10) Miami 21-27 (1) Indiana

Incorrect

South Carolina State 40-38 Prairie View A&M

Boise State 10-38 Washington

Troy 13-17 Jacksonville State

Old Dominion 24-10 South Florida

Louisiana 13-20 Delaware

Memphis 7-31 North Carolina State

UNLV 10- 17 Ohio

New Mexico 17-20 Minnesota

Pittsburgh 17-23 East Carolina

Connecticut 16-41 Army

(19) Virginia 13-7 Missouri

Tennessee 28-30 Illinois

(16) Southern Cal 27-30 Texas Christian

(23) Iowa 34-27 (14) Vanderbilt

Arizona State 39-42 Duke

(10) Miami 24-14 (2) Ohio State

(6) Mississippi 39-34 (3) Georgia (*)

Wake Forest 43-29 Mississippi State

(17) Arizona 19-24 Southern Methodist

(10) Miami 31-27 (6) Mississippi

Also, gotta shout out the FCS championship, maybe the funnest watch of the whole season.

(*) I took Ole Miss on my blog but apparently not on my card. Doh!

2025-26 NFL (Wild Card Round)

AFC

Bills @ Jags (-1.5, 51.5) 

The Bills opened as the faves, but the lines have flipped and considering the red hot Jags are at home, that makes sense. The Jags have been plodding along for a few years now, opened the season that way, as well. But for the last two months or so, the Jags have been one of the hottest teams in the league, built around a stingy defense and an offense that is hitting its stride. The Bills have been the bridesmaid a lot in the Josh Allen era and now suddenly Mahomes, Lamar Jackson and Burrow are out of the way--should be Buffalo's year, right? Well, unfortunately the Bills have a vanilla defense and a nice but not overwhelming offense, and the reason the Chiefs and Ravens fell by the wayside is there are a batch of up-and-comers in the AFC. So can the Bills go to Jacksonville and get a W? Well, at the beginning of the week everyone thought so, but by the end of the week, I guess no one thinks that any more....which is perfect for me because I hate to go along with the mainstream and I want to take the Bills. The Jags defense can hold off the Bills for a while but they're gonna score eventually; the boring Bills D just has to keep QB Lawrence in check to keep the game in hand. And I think they will. Bills 24-20 (Bills and the under)

Chargers @ Patriots (-3.5, 46.5)

The Pats rode the pheneomonal sophomore season of QB Drake Maye (and truly putrid schedule) almost to the top of the AFC. The Chargers are just Chargin' along, they seemed a little better than usual this season, though without taking some great leap forward, and they seemed to avoid the catastrophic injuries of past seasons. Are they good enough to go to New England and steal a W? Maybe but west coast teams coming east don't typically fare well and I don't see the Chargers as being able to overcome that. The Pats really have played a lousy schedule but I still believe they're a pretty damn good team with a coach that knows what he's doing and a hell of a good young QB. If it were 2.5 I'd be all over the Pats, a little nervous about the extra half point, but I'll take the Pats anyway, I think their offense will move the ball. Pats 26-20 (Pats and the under)

Texans @ Steelers (+3, 38.5)

1st data point: The Texans have a killer pass rush, the Steelers have a QB that probably ought to be in the Smithsonian. 2nd data point: Did you know the Steelers haven't lost on Monday night since, like, 1991? WTF? So while the perpetually mediocre Steelers are back in the playoffs again, it feels like they've been given a lifeline in this Monday night start time against the young and dumb Texans. So can QB Aaron Rodgers stay upright enough to move the ball downfield? I don't think so. I think the Steelers will struggle to score, even with the return of WR Metcalf. As for the Texans, well, they'll be going up against a pretty good pass rush, too, but I think they'll make enough plays to get it done. Texans 18-10 (Texans and the under)

NFC
Rams @ Panthers (+10, 46.5)

I think the Panthers are a bad team that is moving in the right direction. They won their terrible division on a fluke and that's why they're here. They played well against the Rams just a coupla weeks ago on their home field, but I don't think that will happen again. I think the Rams were taking it easy that day and I don't think they will today. At 10 points, the backdoor cover is definitely a problem, but I think the Rams will build enough of a lead that it doesn't matter and I think the Rams will play hard into the 4th quarter. Rams 38-16 (Rams and the over).

Packers @ Bears (+1.5, 44.5)

The Packers have swung wildly this season, from being everybody's favorite to win it all to barely squeaking into the #7 spot in the NFC. The Bears have ridden their rocky young QB Williams and their fired-up 1st year coach to the #2 spot in the NFC and a home game against a division foe they've already defeated this season. So why are the Packers the favorite? I dunno. I think the Bears are the better team and have been for most of the season. Throw in that the Packers have serious injuries on both sides of the ball and haven't played well in over a month and....welll....I don't understand why anyone is taking the Packers here. I'll take Bears 27-14 (Bears and the under).

Niners @ Eagles (-6, 44.5)

The Niners have endured non-stop injuries this year and somehow were still in the mix for the #1 seed in the final week of the season. The Eagles have offensive weapons all over the place and yet look bored and listless for long stretches of time. Everyone seems to think the Niners suck but, all they do is win (except in their own division). The Eagles are a large favorite--and they certainly could rise up and destroy the Niners--but chances are, they'll fart around, waste a bunch of time, argue with each other on the sidelines and have to scramble to pull the game out. I really don't see a scenario where the Eagle confidently win the game. Just to hedge I'll take the Eagles to win but the Niners to keep it close. Eagles 27-24 (Niners and the over)

2025-26 NCAA Football (Playoff Semifinals)

Games I saw (some of):

(10) Miami 24-14 (2) Ohio State

All season long the Buckeyes knocked down whoever was put in front of them and we genuflected to their dominance, all while secretly wondering if they were actually any good. Well, after a back-to-back throttlings by Indiana and Miami it is plainly obvious that the Buckeye offense was kinda ordinary and the defense was good but not great. It was their scheduling that was disappointing: no Oregon, no Indiana, catching Penn State and Michigan just as they were falling apart and Texas before they were ready to blossom. The Big 10 Final showed that the Buckeyes were the 2nd best (at best!) team in the B10 and Miami just placed the flowers on their grave.

As for the Hurricanes, well, I was impressed at their opening W over Notre Dame but never saw much impressive about them again. The ACC was putrid this year--and Miami still didn't make the conference final!--and their stumbles to Louisville (dude, quit throwing interceptions!) and SMU (dude, can you please stop this running game?), were embarrassingly awful--and I thought reason enough to choose Notre Dame over them for the playoff. (*) But I noticed when they got a dominant victory at Pittsburgh and their D-line just kept getting better and better. So, in contradistinction to OSU's flawless season undone by two straight thumpings, Miami's rather lackluster regular season has yielded back to back grinding W's against Texas A&M and Ohio State (on the road, no less). Miami has shown they deserve to be here.

(5) Oregon 23-0 (4) Texas Tech

The score doesn't look like it but Tech's defense was really good, they held out as long as they could against Oregon's onslaught. But, man, dude that QB....yipes....I felt sorry for the kid. Surely that's the worst game he's ever played. He wasn't able to do much of anything and the turnovers became inevitable. You can credit Oregon's D, they came to play, but Tech's high flying offense thudded hard in this match. Good regular season, but they couldn't get it done in the tourney and that's how it goes.

Both Oregon and Tech looked pretty brilliant all year long, I couldn't separate the two--but I can now! Oregon showed up and Tech didn't, Oregon made the plays and Tech didn't, Oregon was ready to move on and Tech wasn't. In the 1st round Oregon moved the ball at will on James Madison but then fell asleep on defense, which gave the coach plenty to yell about even though they got the victory; here the coach can easily point out that while Oregon is moving on, Tech faltered so badly that the Ducks still have a lot to work on. (This is working out too perfectly for the Oregon coaching staff so far)

(9) Alabama 3-38 (1) Indiana

I believed in Bama when no one else would. When they pulled their shit together, they could get impressive W's; but when it fell apart they had some puzzling losses. I kinda thought that it was there for them to rise up as an underdog, but the offense was sloppy enough that was a foolish expectation. Bama looked like they were playing in mud, Indiana clowned them at every facet of the game, the Tide were never in this game. 

Indiana has just been grinding people into dirt all year long. Alabama is simply next on the list. Frankly the Hoosiers got going a little late in this game, with a coupla breaks this could've been way more lopsided.

(6) Mississippi 39-34 (3) Georgia

The fun one! Back and forth action, two very familiar opponents, both teams with the chance to pull it all together and go on a run (am I ready to say that the winner of this game will win it all?). For the most part UGA felt like the better team but they could never get any separation and in the 4th quarter Ole Miss made the plays and UGA did not. Good but shaky season for the Bulldogs, a weird--and getting weirder--season for the Rebels. 

Semifinals:

Fiesta Bowl: (10) Miami @ (6) Mississippi (+3.5, 52.5)

Miami's defense is cooking but I'm still not in on their offense. Against the sluggish Buckeyes they got a pick-6, a garbage time TD and a coupla FG's....I don't think that's gonna get them past Ole Miss. Especially since Ole Miss's pass rush is playing pretty good right now, too. As for the Rebels, even without their guru (**), that offense still moves with impunity and while Miami's pass rush will be one of the better ones they've faced this season, I think they can outscore the Hurricanes. I like Ole Miss 24-14 (Missisippi and the under).

Peach Bowl: (5) Oregon @ (1) Indiana (-3.5, 47.5)

Ahhhhh, this'll be a good one. Indiana's win at Oregon was arguably the best W of the entire season (Bama at Georgia was up there, too) and certainly the most eye-opening--THIS was the moment that I saw with certainty that the Hoosiers were for real. Going to Oregon and getting a hard fought L was the test and they blew right past that! Indiana dominated the Ducks on their home field and the only second guess on it now is that the Ducks played conservative thinking they could get by with a B- game plan. The Hoosiers proved that that wasn't good enough. Oregon has been a good squad all season long and they're probably playing their best ball right now--and, again, they've had back-to-back W's now that looked pretty easy but still gave the coaches plenty to bitch about--and they've got no reason to hold anything back this time. Oregon will be bringing their best and that will surely be the best that Indiana has seen all season long. But the Hoosiers are fuckin' money, man. They've taken all comers so far (including these Ducks) and after their cold-blooded shellacking of Ohio State and Alabama, I don't think they'll be afraid of Oregon. If anyone could get Indiana it is probably Oregon....but I don't think Indiana is gonna get got! (Am I ready to say that the winner of this game will win it all?) I'll take Indiana 27-24 (Oregon and the over). 

(*) Yeah, yeah, "head to head has to matter!" And the two bad losses and only one good W all season long....doesn't that have to matter, too?

(**) The buzz is that Lane Kiffin might be interested in the Venezuela presidency now that its open. But with things getting hot in Kiev, I think there's a good chance Zelensky enters the transfer portal. 

2025-26 NCAA Football (Playoff 2nd Round)

Games I saw (some of):

(9) Alabama 34-24 (8) Oklahoma

Fun game! OU jumped out to a quick 17-0 lead, Bama fans were chain smoking and trying to sell their coach to Michigan. Then, a Xmas miracle: Bama got rolling and ripped right past the Sooners, who just couldn't move the ball after their opening burst. Yeah, I was never in on OU and strangely bullish on Bama, so I was right all along (shweet!).

(10) Miami 10-3 (7) Texas A&M

Wow, a sludgefest. Miami finally broke through late in the 4th quarter and, well, that's pretty much all it took. The pass rushes had all the glory in this match. A&M did everything they could do...except beat Texas and Miami, so a hell of a season suddenly looks wildly overrated. I was impressed by Miami's opening night win over Notre Dame...and then was never impressed by them again all season long. Are they finally getting rolling? Well, the defense looks good, but the offense still isn't blowing me away. 

Didn't catch:

(11) Tulane 10-41 (6) Mississippi

An almost perfect replay of the regular season match between these two. (Why was Tulane in this tournament?)

(12) James Madison 34-51 (5) Oregon

I buy the notion that this was the perfect W for Oregon: the win was secured, the offense looked dominant but the lack of intensity on the defensive side will give the coaches plenty to complain about. The Ducks are in their spartan phase now and the next opponent better beware.

2nd Round:

Cotton Bowl: (10) Miami @ (2) Ohio State (-7.5, o/u 40.5)

Miami started the season strong, then slogged their way to a lucky invitation to the tourney; Ohio State stomped everyone they played until their last game against their first real foe (Indiana) and got manhandled. Miami did very little to live up to their opening night, OSU won so easily for so long that they may have forgotten what real football is actually like. Eh....I'll take the Buckeyes to move the ball and stymy the Hurricanes (I just don't see how Miami scores). Ohio State 28-10 (Buckeyes, under) 

Orange Bowl: (5) Oregon @ (4) Texas Tech (+2.5, 51.5)

I had Oregon and Texas Tech (and Mississippi) in the same tier all season long: brilliant offense, pretty good defense, definitely better than the dregs but not sure if they have the depth to hang with the big dogs. One of these teams will move on, at least one won't--almost a shame when potential upstarts have to face each other. Tech's one loss was at Arizona State (so-so conference opponent on the road), while Oregon's only loss was at home to Indiana (top drawer conference at home). Both teams had nice wins but nothing really eye-popping, so which one is better? I have no idea, these teams seem identical to me. The ideal match to watch is two killer offenses running it up on each other--though often times that's when the so-so defenses really show up. But I think we will get a shoot out and since Tech is getting points, I'll take the dog in a close one. Oregon 35-34 (Tech and the over)

Rose Bowl: (9) Alabama @ (1) Indiana (-7, 47.5)

Indiana is probably the most puzzling team I've ever seen: Indiana has never been good at football and watching their casual brilliance all year long made my head swim. They won at Oregon! They kept to their game plan and pulled out a strong W at Penn State! They dominated the Buckeyes for 60 solid minutes! I've never seen Indiana do any of this stuff before and in college football you tend to see the good teams coming. Bama has spent most of the 21st century kicking the shit out of all comers but suddenly seem mortal. Upstart versus fading giant. I dunno. I've been more into Alabama than most this season, some say Bama didn't deserve to be here, I say I'm not surprised to find them here. Bama has played big games, tough teams, pressing situations, they've been doing all that for a coupla decades now, Indiana has been doing it for a coupla months. But, I gotta go Hoosiers, that O-line is Bama-licious, the QB is for real, the WR's make plays, the defense is really good and even though Bama knows they ought to be better, I'm not sure they actually are. I've got to go Indiana. Indiana 24-16 (Indiana, under)

Sugar Bowl: (6) Mississippi @ (3) Georgia (-6, 55.5)

Georgia has been good, not great, this year, but they look like they've turned the corner and might go on a domination spree. Ole Miss has a high flying offense (and no head coach) and won't be afraid of conference foe UGA. This is probably Ole Miss's best chance to beat UGA since before I was born. I'm gonna do it: this is my upset pick. I think Ole Miss can score and even build a lead and I think they can hang on as UGA comes storming back. (This also could turn into a defensive sludgefest game, to, but I'd still take Ole Miss to cover) Mississippi 27-21 (Mississippi, under)

2025-26 NCAA Football (Playoff 1st round)

(9) Alabama @ (8) Oklahoma (+1.5; O/U 40.5)

Is Bama gonna bounce back from their abysmal showing in the SEC final? Is Bama gonna bounce back from their abysmal showing against Oklahoma just a few weeks ago? I think they will. I think Bama is better, I think Oklahoma got lucky against Bama earlier and I think Bama will grasp this opportunity to advance. I'll take Bama and the under.

(10) Miami @ (7) Texas A&M (-3.5; 51.5)

This is a good match. A&M has been good all year long, bad misstep at Texas but otherwise solid on both sides of the ball; Miami had two inexplicably bad L's (worse than Notre Dame's 2 L's, incidentally) but otherwise looked like a formidable side. This match could go either way, I have no idea what to expect. But I will take the dog to keep it close. Miami and the under.

(11) Tulane @ (6) Mississippi (-17.5; 56.5)

Hey, Tulane, congrats on being invited to bask in the ACC's incompetence! Don't think this is gonna last long, though, I think Ole Miss is gonna score and score and score. Enjoy it while it lasts, Green Wave. I'll take Ole Miss and the over.

(12) James Madison @ (5) Oregon (-21.5; 50.5)

James Madison hasn't had this much buzz since the War of 1812, long before Oregon was a state. This, too, won't last long. Oregon is gonna run JMU out of the stadium. I got Oregon and the over. 

2025 NCAA Football (Week 16)

Last week's championship results:

(24) North Texas 21-34 (20) Tulane

In and out of this game, looked like Tulane had it handled by halftime--is it notable that Tulane got outscored in the 2nd half?

Troy 14-31 (25) James Madison

Saw none of this game, feels like James Madison struggled, didn't seal the W til the 4th quarter. Oh well, because of the ACC's utter incompetence, they'll be sitting at the adult table this Xmas. 

(2) Indiana 13-10 (1) Ohio State

Wow, Indiana was the better team from beginning to end and I...don't know how to process that. Until last season Indiana football had never--NEVER--been more than a mild surprise once a decade or so. But they are the for real #1 team in America right now with a hot coach, a lovable QB, a solid receiving corps and a defense that just fustigated the mighty mighty Buckeyes. I'm agog...yup, agog....pure non-stop agog over here. Their only worry is that they now take on Ohio State's preoccupation about their remaining opponents. I wondered how good the Buckeyes really were, but that question wasn't so much answered as transferred to Indiana. So can the big bad SEC also-rans hang with these Big 10 bruisers? Honestly, I have no idea.

(3) Georgia 28-7 (9) Alabama

Bama just never got any offense going. UGA was good but I thought it was Bama's inabilities that were the larger factor in this match. UGA is really good, I have no second thoughts about their brilliance. But Bama was so bad in this game--they can't really be this bad. So did UGA finally solve their Bama problem? Or is Bama just not that good? Or did Bama just have a bad day? My gut feeling is the third: Bama is better than this, they just didn't show up for this match. Voters apparently agreed because Bama (and their 3 L's) were invited to keep going and I'm curious to see how they do. I think Bama is really good and they just whiffed in this match and are lucky to be getting a second chance. 

(11) Brigham Young 7-34 (4) Texas Tech

The BYU (and Utah, too, for that matter) haters got their wish in the form of another drubbing at the hands of Texas Tech. These two L's to Tech are used as evidence that the BYU offense was embarrassingly awful and they've been overrated all season long; but I must counter that outside of these games against Tech, BYU comfortably handled everyone else they played and I'm not sure what else could be expected of them. Hey, man, Texas Tech is legit good! That offense can move the ball and that pass rush is cold blooded, I can't help thinking that their two drubbings of BYU are arguably their best games of the year and if we're devaluing BYU. that only serves to devalue Texas Tech.  So I'm going the opposite route: I think BYU is pretty good and Tech's mastery of them shows how really really good Tech is. 

Duke 27-20 (OT) (17) Virginia

I saw none of this game and I'm convinced no one else did either. The fact that the ACC ended up with these two in their final just shows that the ACC doesn't deserve to have nice things. 

This leaves us next weekend with an opening round of:

(9) Alabama @ (8) Oklahoma (+1.5; O/U 40.5)

(10) Miami @ (7) Texas A&M (-3.5; 51.5)

(11) Tulane @ (6) Mississippi (-17.5; 56.5)

(12) James Madison @ (5) Oregon (-21.5; 50.5)

The controversies: Because the ACC screwed up their championship, it meant that there would be 2 small conferences teams (Tulane, James Madison) instead of just one (which we all agree is 1 too many). Subsequently, the fight between Notre Dame and Miami ended up with the Hurricanes advancing because they beat Notre Dame head to head (and that has to matter!). Personally I would've taken Notre Dame over Miami (*), becasue Notre Dames 2 losses (A&M and Miami, who meet next week) are better than Miami's 2 losses (Louisville, SMU)--and that has to matter!

My final top 12 of this season:

1) Indiana (I can't believe what I just typed)

2) Georgia

3) Ohio State

4) Texas Tech

5) Mississippi

6) Oregon

7) Alabama

8) Texas A&M

9) Notre Dame

10) Brigham Young

11) Vanderbilt 

12) Miami

(*) And I would've taken Vanderbilt over Notre Dame or Miami or Oklahoma. Yeah, Vandy was really fucking good this year.