2025-26 NFL (Super Bowl)

AFC

Pats 10-7 Broncos

Crazy game! The Broncos were up 7-0 early, got into FG range and then had to decide whether to go for it or take the 3 points. The weather was still okay at this point but everyone knew a blizzard was coming. So do you just take the easy points and hope that's enough or do you go for the kill shot knowing that the rest of the game is gonna be a sludgefest? I'll tell ya: to me it was a 50/50 call. Sitting on my couch I couldn't decide; taking the easy points made sense but pressing your luck to go for even more made sense, too. I didn't know which way to go but I had the feeling even then that this was going to be the decision of the game. The Broncos went for it, didn't make it, never scored again. To be fair, an even more important play came just before halftime when QB Stidham made a really hideous attempt at throwing the ball away (*) to avoid a sack and it was called a backward pass (**), gave the ball to the Pats inside the 10 yard line for a quick TD and, well, that was the ball game. The Pats had a one nice drive after halftime to take the 10-7 lead, then the blizzard came and it was just comedy at that point. The Broncos probably should've won this game, if Stidham avoids that one big mistake, that's probably enough to finish the game. But, they made the wrong choice on the FG and one bad play destroyed them. As for the Pats, well, they avoided the big mistake, took advantage of what came their way and they're going to the Super Bowl. 

NFC

Rams 27-31 Seahawks

The Rams had their chance to steal it and they came up short, the Seahawks had their chance to blow it and they made the plays down the stretch. The game was mostly back and forth, but I thought the Seahawks were generally the better team with just enough of an opening for the Rams to maybe steal it. This is more what I expected from the Niners the week before, but they were just too depleted; but the Rams, also a familiar division opponent of the Seahawks, still had enough in the tank to push them. When division teams get together, you just never know what's gonna happen because of the familiarity. When a division game is close, it isn't a surprise and when it's a blow out--it isn't a surprise either! Division opponents just produce a different game. So are the Seahawks more tested or less tested because they only played familiar opponents in the playoffs?

Super Bowl

Seahawks @ Pats (+4.5) (o/u 45.5)

The line hasn't budged since it opened and I'm kinda shocked by that. I thought 4.5 was way low and I still think so and I don't understand why I'm (apparently) the only person that thinks that. Listen Pats fans: you've had a great season, you've found your star QB, you've got the right coach and you are moving in the right direction in a division that is stagnating and a conference that is eroding. But, you still didn't play anyone all year long, you got the Texans and the Broncos in flukey conditions, you skipped past Burrow and Mahomes and Lamar, you didn't have to play the Bills a 3rd time and your QB has been way more lucky than good in the post-season. The Pats won all their games, they did what they had to do, I'm not saying they're a fluke or they don't belong here, I'm just saying there's no metric in the universe that suggests to me that they are better than the Seahawks.

The Seahaks stumbled early to the Niners (division foe at full strength), against the Bucs (who started the season red hot) and lost to the Rams (who were red hot in the middle of the season). Otherwise they more or less pummeled everyone else they played. QB Sam Darnold had a solid season, WR Smith-Njigba had a mind-bogglingly awesome season (how is he always open?) and that defense got it done week after week. The Seahawks were slow to get on my radar but once I noticed them, it was hard not to see that they were one of the better teams of the NFC all season long. The NFC was better than the AFC and the Seahawks played a tougher schedule throughout than the Pats. 

The Pats' best hope is that the Seahawks D is over-aggressive and sloppy, that WR Smith-Nigba can be neutralized thus crippling the Seahawk attack, that QB Darnold will turn back into a pumpkin and that QB Maye makes a handful of hero plays and steals a victory. I think that's way too much to expect. I think what is much more likely is that the Seahawk offense grinds a bit, then gets going and the Pats offense just grinds. Shutting down Smith-Njigba is precisely what Belichick would do but that guy is just always open, I think if they over-pursue him, the Pats D might completely crater. Also, I think its much more likely that Darnold makes big plays, not Maye.

Basically my point is: this has 41-10 written all over it. That's what I thought 2 weeks ago, still what I think today. The Seahawks are the better team on both sides of the ball and they are ready to play; the Pats are a nice story but they have overachieved and just aren't as good in any way. It would require a series of crazy misfortunes for the Pats to even have a chance in this match and if the Seahawks don't turn the ball over, I don't see how they lose. 

Gotta go Seahawks big enough that the Pats get some garbage time. I'll say Seahawks 31-17 (Seahawks and the over) and though I'm always up for a competitive match, I think the Pats will be comfortably behind from beginning to end. 

(*) Young QBs out there: either learn to throw the ball away earlier or learn to take the sack. The difference between a veteran play and the worst play of your life is about 1.5 seconds. Stidham made the mistake that all young QB's should learn not to make.

(**) I dunno, man, I thought there was contact on his passing arm, I'm not sure that's really a backward pass, but, oh well, it is what it is.