East
Cavs over Pistons in 7This felt like a classic home team wins every game series and for the first 4 games, that's how it played. Then the Cavs stole Game Five in Detroit: Pistons were up 9 with 3 minutes to go, the game felt well in hand to me, but then the Pistons just straight ran out of gas and could not score again to save their lives. The Cavs took it to OT and dominated the extra period. But the Pistons came back strong in Cleveland, while the Cavs floundered badly and it went back to Detroit for Game Seven. Right away, the Cavs got buckets, Donovan Mitchell was getting assists finding Evan Mobley and Jarret Allen, the Pistons couldn't get their shooting going and it was all over. The Pistons vaunted D absolutely cratered as their lack of offense turned into confident possessions for the Cavs.
The Pistons were a one-note team all year long but at the end of the season they kept getting W's without Cade and that impressed me, I thought the supporting cast could go up a level once Cade got back. In their best moments against the Magic and the Cavs, that kinda happened; but in their worser moments, it did not. Jalen Duren had a frighteningly bad (considering it is a contract year for him) run against Wendell Carter and Evan Mobley, Tobias Harris had to work too hard to find his scoring (when he did find it), Ausar Thompson's complete lack of offense becomes glaring in the post-season, Duncan Robinson had a nice run but missed a coupla games, Isiah Stewart and Paul Reid had some nice moments but didn't really sustain, Kevin Huerter was hurt and Daniss Jenkins is nice--the only guy that showed up for Game Seven!--but wasn't much of a difference maker. The rotation behind Cade is just so-so, which really makes you appreciate how damn good Cade was this year. The season was a pleasant surprise but, man, this summer is not looking good for them. They have a lot of questions, we'll see if they come up with some answers.
Knicks over Sixers in 4
The Knicks got hot against the Hawks and kept it going. I didn't watch much of this series, because it was over so quick. The Knicks are on a seven game winning streak, playing their best ball of the season.
The Sixers overachieved against the Celtics (who underachieved) only to receive a vicious reminder that they were not one of the best 8 teams in the NBA this year. Tyrese Maxey is stretching into a great team leader, VJ Edgecombe would've won Rookie of the Year in most seasons and Paul George really found something after his suspension late in the season. I've never been a Joel Embiid fan (and I'm still not), but he must still be considered part of their core because the Sixers are on the hook for another $180m to him so clearly he's not going anywhere. Adem Bona is a workable rotation guy. They got important minutes out of Kelly Oubre, Quentin Grimes and Andre Drummond this year, are any of those guys coming back and, if not, how do they get replaced? Where do they go from here? They've got Maxey and Edgecombe and the #22 pick...and...well....they've still got their 1st rounder for 2027, so I'm guessing they're on their way to a rebuild (I believe they call it a "Process" in Philly). Could they swap Paul George for Jimmy Butler to get off big money without picking up any stray W's? They've already fired GM Darryl Morey, just the beginning of a clumsy summer ahead for the Sixers.
West
Thunder over Lakers in 4
Yawn! Another quick shredding for the Thunder that I barely paid attention to.
The Lakers were without Luka Doncic for the entire series and as Austin Reaves was returning from an injury, his performance was up and down. Lebron is still a great player but he was all alone out there, squeezing what he could out of Rui Hachimura, Deandre Ayton, Luke Kennard and a mildly rejuvenated Marcus Smart (he was pretty good actually, but just not enough to make a difference). They didn't have enough to even come close to hanging with the Thunder. With Luka, maybe they would've scratched a game or two out of them, but I doubt even that would've made much difference. Next year, all they have right now is Luka, Jarred Vanderbilt, Jake LaRavia and Dalton Knecht with player options on Ayton (maybe), Smart (probably not) and Reaves, who they need to re-sign (or sign and trade) and the #25 pick . Will they bring back Lebron (doesn't seem like it) or Kennard (I doubt it) or Hachimura (I have no idea). Do people want to play with Luka? Do they want the bright lights of the Lakers?
Spurs over Wolves in 6
News flash: Wemby is awesome and Dillon Harper is ready to be a major player. Weird series in that all the games were blow outs, as well matched as these two seemed to be, there were no interesting 4th quarters in the whole series. The three headed monster of De'Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle and Harper ran roughshod over the undermanned Wolves. When the Wolves were able to find their shooting touch, they won, but they just didn't do that often enough. They had a lot of length to throw at Wemby but without the requisite scoring, it didn't matter. Julius Randle was set up to be the difference maker and in the first game, he was exactly that; then....he never did that again and whatever advantage the Wolves had evaporated. Also, Rudy Gobert was not good in this series, I wouldn't say he got dominated by Wemby, he just wasn't good. And there was just too much Mike Conley, who had to play expanded minutes because of the loss of Donte DiVincenzo. The Spurs are ahead of schedule and not afraid of the OKC Thunder.
Can the Wolves run it back? Are we ready to say that Gobert is not the Wemby Kryptonite the Wolves need and therefore needs to be traded? Not sure. Is Joan Beringer ready to be the new Gobert and/or the new Wemby Kryptonite? Not sure. Is Naz Reid overrated or underrated? Not sure. (*) Ayo Dosunmu was a revelation against the Nuggets but was mostly invisible against the Spurs 3-guard attack; Bones Hyland, too, emerged against the Nuggets and then submerged against the Spurs; so do they bring those guys back or let them walk? Not sure. Terrence Shannon had moments in this playoff run, is he ready to be a regular contributor in that offense? Not sure. Julius Randle had good moments and bad moments--which he's done his entire career--do they move on from him or hope that he bounces back? Not sure. This team has Anthony Edwards and Jaden McDaniels and....a whole lot of "not sure". I'd say Shannon and Beringer are definitely gonna be a big part of next year's lineup and I would certainly keep Reid, but Gobert and Randle will probably be available and I'm not sure how eager they are to keep Dosunmu, Hyland or Conley. For a team that made back-to-back Western Finals and had moments of looking competitive with the Spurs, the Wolves might be a totally different team next year.
Predictions
Cavs - Knicks
The Cavs have been an unpredictable disappointment guided by Donovan Mitchell (finally reaching the pinnacle of his career right now), James Harden (overrated in his prime and now past his prime) and Even Mobley (projected to be the next super stud who is actually just a nice, overpaid play). When these three bring their best, the Cavs can run up the score, move the ball and play enough defense to hold a lead. But when they don't, it just looks awful and frustrating. Their wins against the Raptors and the Pistons were enlivening, but the losses were dispiriting. To be fair, those are two of the better defenses in the league--both much better than the Knicks--and the Cavs managed to find a way.
The Knicks are playing their best ball of the season right now but, to be fair, those wins came against the overachieving Hawks and the lucky-to-be-here Sixers, not as impressive as the Cavs opponents. OG Anunoby has been a monster, Karl-Anthony Towns is attacking and avoiding the dumb mistakes that have plagued him his whole career, Josh Hart is running around like a mad man and Jalen Brunson has done just enough, mostly able to keep his powder dry. If the Knicks keep this going, they can roll right over the Cavs, who would fall to pieces under such an onslaught. But if the Knicks falter, have a bad shooting, or run into foul trouble, this series could sideways with a quickness. Indeed, the Knicks could be riding for a major fall--and Knicks fans know it better than anyone.
The Knicks are the better team but are quite capable of blowing it. The Cavs have the necessary pieces but have yet to really properly deploy those pieces. I'm gonna go off the board: I think the key matchup is Jarret Allen v Mikal Bridges. When the Knicks are rolling, Bridges is the big beneficiary, but when he disappears (which was a lot against the Hawks), the Knicks don't get those extra productivity bumps; the Cavs have never found the right balance for Mobley and Allen, but against the Pistons, it felt to me like their roles emerged. If they overpower Mitchell, it'll require Towns and/or Hart to change up the way they play. It is a seemingly small thing, but if Allen can keep up his play at both ends, that makes everything so much easier for Mobley, which in turn makes everything harder for the Knicks defense. The Knicks think they can outscore the Cavs, but Allen could be the key to upsetting that equilibrium.
Also, unlike the Cavs-Pistons series where I thought the home team had the advantage, I think the opposite in this series. The Knicks can dominate in Cleveland while I think the Cavs could silence the NYC crowd. I'm going reverse home court advantage: I like the Cavs in 6.
Spurs - Thunder
Gonna be awesome. Can't wait. I haven't watched much Thunder (because neither the Suns nor the Lakers put up much to watch) this post-season and really only glimpses here and there of the Spurs (the Blazers were harmless fun but the Wolves games were all too one-sided to be watchable). I think the Thunder are the best roster in the NBA and really only the Spurs can hang with them. What's gonna happen? No idea. I will make this prediction: the Spurs wins will all be close, but the Thunder's wins might becomes blowouts. I'll take Thunder in 7 (solely because I want to see this match up the maximum number of times).
(*) To me the answer is Naz Reid is underrated, but I've yet to meet anyone that agrees with me--which only proves me right! (Right?)
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