2025-26 NFL (Wild Card Round)

AFC

Bills @ Jags (-1.5, 51.5) 

The Bills opened as the faves, but the lines have flipped and considering the red hot Jags are at home, that makes sense. The Jags have been plodding along for a few years now, opened the season that way, as well. But for the last two months or so, the Jags have been one of the hottest teams in the league, built around a stingy defense and an offense that is hitting its stride. The Bills have been the bridesmaid a lot in the Josh Allen era and now suddenly Mahomes, Lamar Jackson and Burrow are out of the way--should be Buffalo's year, right? Well, unfortunately the Bills have a vanilla defense and a nice but not overwhelming offense, and the reason the Chiefs and Ravens fell by the wayside is there are a batch of up-and-comers in the AFC. So can the Bills go to Jacksonville and get a W? Well, at the beginning of the week everyone thought so, but by the end of the week, I guess no one thinks that any more....which is perfect for me because I hate to go along with the mainstream and I want to take the Bills. The Jags defense can hold off the Bills for a while but they're gonna score eventually; the boring Bills D just has to keep QB Lawrence in check to keep the game in hand. And I think they will. Bills 24-20 (Bills and the under)

Chargers @ Patriots (-3.5, 46.5)

The Pats rode the pheneomonal sophomore season of QB Drake Maye (and truly putrid schedule) almost to the top of the AFC. The Chargers are just Chargin' along, they seemed a little better than usual this season, though without taking some great leap forward, and they seemed to avoid the catastrophic injuries of past seasons. Are they good enough to go to New England and steal a W? Maybe but west coast teams coming east don't typically fare well and I don't see the Chargers as being able to overcome that. The Pats really have played a lousy schedule but I still believe they're a pretty damn good team with a coach that knows what he's doing and a hell of a good young QB. If it were 2.5 I'd be all over the Pats, a little nervous about the extra half point, but I'll take the Pats anyway, I think their offense will move the ball. Pats 26-20 (Pats and the under)

Texans @ Steelers (+3, 38.5)

1st data point: The Texans have a killer pass rush, the Steelers have a QB that probably ought to be in the Smithsonian. 2nd data point: Did you know the Steelers haven't lost on Monday night since, like, 1991? WTF? So while the perpetually mediocre Steelers are back in the playoffs again, it feels like they've been given a lifeline in this Monday night start time against the young and dumb Texans. So can QB Aaron Rodgers stay upright enough to move the ball downfield? I don't think so. I think the Steelers will struggle to score, even with the return of WR Metcalf. As for the Texans, well, they'll be going up against a pretty good pass rush, too, but I think they'll make enough plays to get it done. Texans 18-10 (Texans and the under)

NFC
Rams @ Panthers (+10, 46.5)

I think the Panthers are a bad team that is moving in the right direction. They won their terrible division on a fluke and that's why they're here. They played well against the Rams just a coupla weeks ago on their home field, but I don't think that will happen again. I think the Rams were taking it easy that day and I don't think they will today. At 10 points, the backdoor cover is definitely a problem, but I think the Rams will build enough of a lead that it doesn't matter and I think the Rams will play hard into the 4th quarter. Rams 38-16 (Rams and the over).

Packers @ Bears (+1.5, 44.5)

The Packers have swung wildly this season, from being everybody's favorite to win it all to barely squeaking into the #7 spot in the NFC. The Bears have ridden their rocky young QB Williams and their fired-up 1st year coach to the #2 spot in the NFC and a home game against a division foe they've already defeated this season. So why are the Packers the favorite? I dunno. I think the Bears are the better team and have been for most of the season. Throw in that the Packers have serious injuries on both sides of the ball and haven't played well in over a month and....welll....I don't understand why anyone is taking the Packers here. I'll take Bears 27-14 (Bears and the under).

Niners @ Eagles (-6, 44.5)

The Niners have endured non-stop injuries this year and somehow were still in the mix for the #1 seed in the final week of the season. The Eagles have offensive weapons all over the place and yet look bored and listless for long stretches of time. Everyone seems to think the Niners suck but, all they do is win (except in their own division). The Eagles are a large favorite--and they certainly could rise up and destroy the Niners--but chances are, they'll fart around, waste a bunch of time, argue with each other on the sidelines and have to scramble to pull the game out. I really don't see a scenario where the Eagle confidently win the game. Just to hedge I'll take the Eagles to win but the Niners to keep it close. Eagles 27-24 (Niners and the over)