East
Celtics (43w)
Clear faves, looking good, playing good, they've got their roster in place, just need to avoid injuries. I don't see any MVP or DPOY or 6th Man candidates here, this team is too deep and flexible to really need any kind of stepping up.
Cavs (36), Bucks (35), Knicks (33)
The Cavs have been on a great run lately and they've really transformed their chemistry lately, but I can't help thinking they're peaking too early. I like them, but I think they finish 4th.
So are the Bucks good in spite of themselves or bad but with bursts of awesome? The Lillard transition has been harder then expected, now the Doc Rivers transition needs to happen, and once Middleton gets healthy, they'll need to work him back into shape. But I still think Giannis is the best player in the East and he alone will drag them into the playoffs. But I think they'll have to expend a great deal of energy to stay in 3rd.
Are you ready for the Knicks to make a run? I like this team to pull together and surge ahead of the Bucks and Cavs and finish 2nd overall. I think they'll keep riding Brunson and fill in the details around him and if they stay healthy, they could be a real handful in the post-season.
Sixers (32), Pacers (31), Heat (30), Magic (30)
The Sixers without Embiid are gonna struggle to go .500 the rest of the way, which would bring them to 46 wins, which I think is in play-in territory. If Embiid never makes it back, they may well just flail all the way out but they're not bad enough for that. But they'll do well to finish 8th or so, which gives them 2 shots at facing the Celtics in the 1st round---yipes! That said, if they can play strong down the stretch and then add Embiid...you think the Celtics are shaking?
I don't see the Pacers being good enough to sneak into the top 4 and they'll have trouble holding off the Magic for the 5th spot, I think they finish 6th and take the trip to Milwaukee to see if the Bucks are for real.
The Heat often coast through the regular season so maybe I shouldn't be shocked that they look lucky to finish in 6th place, but I think there's something off with this team. Bam is not as dominant as he ought to be, Jimmy Butler doesn't look right and even with the resurrection of Duncan Robinson, the emergence of Jaime Jacquez and the addition of Terry Rozier, I don't see these guys having the fire or the smarts (or the luck) of the last few vintage Heat playoff performers. I think they finish 7th and have to play their way to Madison Square for the 1st round (oooh, I'm talking myself into that one!).
I like the Magic to let it all hang out and push their way ahead to the 5th seed. Come playoff time they will either be a seasoned squad or they'll be spent. Can they take the Cavs in the 1st round? I dunno, perhaps the widest variance of any possible playoff matchup.
Bulls (26), Hawks (24)
The Bulls are crafty veterans but I don't see how they get better from here. They could be susceptible to a Hawks run, but I can't see them higher than 9 or lower than 10.
The Hawks are gearing up a weird off-season, they got a lot of questions to answer and I suspect the real fireworks don't come for this squad until the season is done. Can they sneak ahead of the Bulls? (I think they will) Can they catch the falling Sixers? (Meh, I doubt it, but perhaps they can best them in the play-in)
Nets (21), Raptors (19), Hornets (13), Wizards (9), Pistons (9)
The Nets could win games if they wanted to--I just don't think they want to. Will Denis Schroder lead this rag tag bunch of wing defenders into the play-in? Possible but I doubt it.
The Raptors have completely given up on this season, they're not even trying to win. That said, I think they've kinda remade themselves for the future, so they may take this time to develop some chemistry.
The Hornets are not good and they're injured right now and they're an undefined jumble after the trade deadline. I'd be shocked if they finish higher than 13th in the East.
I'm a little surprised the Pistons are worse than the Wizards, who just looked like the worst team in the league last summer to me. I think the Pistons will sneak ahead of the Wizards, as the Wizards have move on from their one reliable down low defender/rebounder (Daniel Gafford), whereas the Pistons got rid of everyone that wasn't immediately in the youth movement, meaning that team is now free to just be themselves and they'll have moments down the stretch.
West
Wolves (39w)
I like the Wolves to finish 1st and extend their lead while doing so. In fact, I think they may face the discomfort of clinching too early and being rusty in the playoffs. They know who they are, they're playing well and they play a lot more games at home from here on out, so I think they cruise into the top spot.
Thunder (37), Clippers (36), Nuggets (36)
I love this OKC squad, yeah, they're young but I think SGA is that good--he's a for real superstar right now and I think OKC already possessed all the firepower they need going forward. That said, I think the Nuggets are due for a run and I think it's the Thunder they bear the brunt of that. So I think they finish 4th i the West.
The Clippers are in a groove. I don't think they rise, I don't think they droop, I think they finish 3rd.
I have the Nuggets leapfrogging the Thunder and Clippers to finish 2nd. This team has been on cruise control all season long and whereas last year, they lollygagged through March and April, this year I think they charge toward the playoffs and sneak up to 2nd (and look damn scary doing it, too!).
Suns (33), Pelicans (33), Mavs (32), Kings (31)
I think the Suns are better positioned that I would've thought heading into the back stretch but I think they take their foot off the gas to avoid injuries and slide back to 6th place.
The Pelicans are a weird team: their W's and L's have no rhyme or reason to them, I can't tell if they're winning games they don't deserve or if they ought to have a much better record because they lose too much! At any rate, I think they falter down the stretch and get passed by the Mavs and Kings, leading to a play-in game on the road.
The Mavs upgraded nicely at the trade deadline, just a matter of working in their new rotation and I think they're primed for a late season push. I think they get up to #5.
The Kings started the season so poorly, they feel lucky to be in 8th right now. But I think they're trending in the right direction and I think they outplay the teams behind them and secure 7th place for a home play-in game (light the beam!).
Lakers (30), Warriors (27)
The Lakers are getting good, healthy seasons out of Anthony Davis and Lebron and that's good enough for 9th place in the West. Dang! I like them to stay ahead of the Warriors but not to catch the Kings (or Pelicans).
The Warriors are playing better. Took them a while to get going, but Kuminga has emerged, Draymond seems older and wiser and Klay Thompson understands his new role. This team could be a real snake bite to the squad that isn't ready.
Jazz (26), Rockets (24)
The Jazz have had some real ups and downs so far, but I think they're kinda done. I don't see them outplaying the West from here, so I can't see them climbing into a play-in spot. I see them as #12.
I thought the Rockets would struggle with their new vets and their promising youth but then find their stride after the all-star break and finish strong. Well, I was almost kinda right: this team is actually pretty good at home and pretty terrible on the road. I thought it would be a developmental process throughout the season, but instead it is an indelible home/road split that has persisted all season. Okay, well, I think they finish strong, wouldn't be shocked to see them make the play-in tourney, but I doubt it. I think they finish 11th--and go free agent hunting in the summer!
Grizzlies (20), Blazers (15), Spurs (11)
Yeah, these three are long done. The Grizz were done in by Ja Morant's early season suspension followed quickly by his season-ending injury. In the last few years, they've actually played well without Ja but they never got going this season, wasted from day one.
The Blazers not trading Malcolm Brogdon was the low key underreported bombshell of the trade deadline, that guy was built to complement a playoff roster--not a rebuild. The good news for the Blazers is they have a bevy of good-looking youngsters and I expect the veterans to be stripped (and replaced) in the off-season.
The Spurs made no effort to be good this year. And they're not. Another top 5 pick is probably just what they need.
East Playoffs Prediction
Heat over Sixers, Hawks over Bulls; Hawks over Sixers
Celtics over Hawks in 5; Knicks over Heat in 7; Bucks over Pacers in 7; Magic over Cavs in 6
Celtics over Magic in 5; Bucks over Knicks in 6
Celtics over Bucks in 7
West Playoffs Prediction
Kings over Pelicans; Warriors over Lakers; Warriors over Pelicans
Wolves over Warriors in 7; Nuggets over Kings in 7; Clippers over Suns in 7; Thunder over Mavs in 7
Thunder over Wolves in 6; Nuggets over Clippers in 6
Nuggets over Thunder in 7
Championship
Nuggets over Celtics in 7
There it is....future all laid out for ya.
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