Tuesday, June 18, 2024

2023-24 NHL Stanley Cup (after 4 games)

(ONE) Oilers 0-3 Panthers

Man, both of these defenses are drum-like in their tightness. I thought the Panthers had basically two good looks at the goal--finished them both--and picked up an empty netter on the way out. Meanwhile, the Oilers had zero good looks at the goal in 60 minutes and scored zero goals. This reminded me of Game One in the Eastern Conference finals where the Panthers beat the Rangers by the same score. That, too, felt like a harbinger of an all-defense series but maybe not, that series had a fair amount of scoring and the Oilers-Stars version in the West had a lot more offense. So, while this has gotten off to a full-on defensive start, that might not be the shape of it. 

The 1st goal was a nifty fast break where the third guy in the attack had just enough room to find the net because the forward defender couldn't recover in time, leaving a gap up the middle. The 2nd goal was a lovely searching pass that just happened to find the defender stretched out of position momentarily leaving an empty space in front of the net where luckily the forward was able to find the top shelf; don't want to discount its awesomeness, but the pass that led to the finish was just a piece of luck, really, a hopeful pass that was rewarded. In short, neither of those are examples of the cornerstone of the Panther attack.

I watched all of the Eastern conference Finals over the Rangers and most of the Western Finals over Dallas. My gut feeling is both of these teams have more offense and I expect this Series to loosen up, especially if Edmonton can keep it going. Not that I don't love some defensive hockey, just saying I think there's going to be goals scored. 


(TWO) Oilers 1-4 Panthers

More of the same. The Oilers took the lead early when a rather innocuous breakaway chance dribbled through Bobrovsky's legs into the goal. Bobrovsky has been getting all the love, and that's great, but it seems to me that it is the full Panther defense that is parrying away the Oiler attack. Bobrovsky has certainly been good but he's mostly getting hit in the chest by desperate shot attempts. Thought it was weird that he gave up this piece of fluff, though.

But Rodridues was able to finish two tight rips in the 3rd to seal it. And they tacked on another empty netter. 

The Panthers defense is so good that it creates patience opportunities at the other end. If the attack just maintains possession, they'll eventually find the lane. Not over yet but unless the Oilers find some kind of scoring acumen and do something to upset the Panther defense, then this one is over. 


(THREE) Panthers 4-3 Oilers

Man, this series is looking exactly like the Mavs-Celtics series: in Game Three over there, the Mavs trying to avoid a sweep, got a nice lead early, couldn't hold it, got way down to the Celtics, who fell asleep and let the Mavs back into the game late, but held on to win anyway. (Replace Mavs with Oilers and Celtics with Panthers) I'm still so amazed that Edmonton just can't get a sniff of the goal. Everyone is praising Bobrovsky, and he's playing well, but his defense in front of him is leaving him very little to do. And the Panther attack is methodical, takes its time, but is punching holes more than the Oilers can hang with. Dude, the 2nd period of this match was like target practice for the Panthers, the Oiler D was getting stretched and the keeper got peppered. 

3-0 is pretty much over--even in hockey--and, uh, yeah, this feels over to me. Maybe getting 3 goals (even in a losing effort) will ignite the attack...maybe....that could happen. But the Panthers are playing really well, I think they'll finish it in 4.


(FOUR) Panthers 1-8 Oilers

Well, now, wait a second....After 4 games the NHL Final looks an awful lot (right?) like the NBA finals. The better team is up 3-0, the drowning home team in Game Four steps and gets a big win. But the Celtics rolling over to the Mavs' last-gasp onslaught is not the same as the dominant Panthers defense getting steadily dismantled. In the first 8 periods the Oilers scored 2 goals; in the last 4 periods the Oilers scored 10 goals. The Oilers have dug a pretty deep hole, I'm not yet ready to say that they turned a corner at the end of Game Three, but I am more curious for Game Five than I thought I would be (whereas I fully expect the Celtics to rail the Mavs in Game Five and finish that series). 


The Panthers looked untouchable til the 3rd period of GameThree, were they just taking the night off in Game Four? We'll see.


(FIVE) Oilers - Panthers

Yeah, I'm getting pretty excited for tonight's match! Whereas the Celtics easily finished off the Mavs in Game Five even after a shaky performance in Game Four, it feels different over here in the hockey world. I don't think you can just mail in a game in hockey like the Celtics do from time to time in basketball. Though the Celtics fans certainly felt shaky going into Game Five, you knew and I knew that the game was going to be a triumphant Celtic stomping (and it was) because Game Four was just a fluke.

But in this series, the sheer dominance the Oilers turned on in the last 1.3 games looks like they figured something out on the Panther defense--that wasn't simply a hamfisted performance by the Panthers or a lucky night for the Oilers. That was two teams and going at it and for the first time in the series, the Oilers looked like the dominant ones. Can they keep it going? I look forward to finding out tonight.

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