Saturday, May 19, 2018

2018-19 Philadelphia Sixers

2017-18: 52-30 (3rd in the East, lost in the 2nd round)
Draft picks: 10,26,38,39,56,60
Signed for next season ($70.5m): Joel Embiid, Robert Covington, Jerryd Bayless, Markelle Fultz, Ben Simmons, Dario Saric, Justin Anderson, Furkan Korkmaz, TJ McConnell, Richaun Holmes, Timothe Luwawu

This summer's free agents: JJ Reddick, Amir Johnson, Marco Belinelli, Ersan Ilyasova, Demetrius Jackson
Their veterans are all free agents, which ones do they bring back? The Sixers will still need 3-4 vets to fill out the roster and they may well decide that Reddick, Johnson, Ilyasova and Belinelli are the right guys for them but they also have a ton of money to spend, a top ten pick and a full year of Markelle Fultz on the way. Personally I'd keep Belinelli and let the other three walk but I have no sense of what the Sixers will do. Jackson is on a 2-way contract.

Okay, let me start by saying Philly was probably the team I watched most this year (Jazz and Kings would round out my top three). One weird observation: I don't know that any of these guys actually like each other; Simmons and Covington are classic in-their-own-head kinda guys; Saric and McConnell are outgoing but nobody knows what they're talking about; Embiid is on his own planet. Fultz, Korkmaz, Luwawu all seem like nice guys but have yet to prove anything; I wouldn't be surprised if all the veterans are gone next year; Coach Brown has been through the tough times, are we sure he's ready for the good times? GM Colangelo inherited a raft of talent and so far has done nothing but wildly overpay for Fultz (and get nothing out of Jahlil Okafor). My observation was that the Sixers were better than the Celtics, who seem to be on their way to the Finals, so what changes do they need to make going forward?

First thing to remember is in 2 years, they'll have to re-sign Simmons and Saric (and possibly Fultz, Korkmaz and Luwawu), but until then they've got tons of money to spend. (Yeah...like...Lebron money) So who should they go get? I say there are four players for the Sixers to wheel and deal for: 1) Jaysun Tatum (not gonna happen), 2) Kevin Durant (he could be out there this summer, but I doubt it), 3) Kawhi Leonard (he fits perfectly, totally worth the money, but probably the most expensive to acquire), 4) Klay Thompson (bingo!).

Pointless trade idea: Sixers get Klay Thompson; Warriors get #10 pick and JJ Reddick (sign and trade; say, 3yrs/$45m).
This year in the playoffs I've been most impressed by Al Horford first and Klay second. When Klay is on, the game is over, he is so money, yet so disciplined, he'd be perfect with Simmons and Embiid and Saric and McConnell, he'd ice games for them, he is the perfect veteran/scoring machine for that crew. Hell I'd sign him to mega-monster whatever extension before the end of the summer. Lock this crew down for a stretch. And for the Warriors, they gotta pay KD again this summer and then lock down either Draymond or Klay...I think it's Draymond. I think Klay has better trade value, too, with 1yr/$18.9m left on his deal. Reddick may feel like redundancy but he is a helluva shooter and a reliable vet, Golden State can always use those. I suggest 3yrs/$45m, $15m/per seems reasonable to me, he's got good value, he knows how to contribute to a good team, 3 years at a good rate (bumping then declining: $14m, $19m, $12m), but Reddick plus the #10 pick is at least a defensible return for letting Klay leave town (they should take Saric, too); they'd rather have Klay but not a bad deal that saves money, gives them a hot shot rookie to throw in the mix (what if Trae Young falls there? Wow) and solidifies Draymond.

You've got to pair this crew with a veteran, who do you want? Demarcus Cousins...seriously, he'd be such a buzzkill for them. Even if the team was good, they'd be annoying and grumpy rather than fun to watch.

Lebron James? No. If I'm the Sixers I don't even want Lebron. Again the Sixers have 2 years before the bill comes due. They can comfortably go to Lebron and offer, say, 2yrs/$60, with the proviso that this is Ben's team, not Lebron's team and there will not--will not--be a 3rd year on the deal. I think Lebron can do much better than that somewhere, certainly Cleveland, probably many other places. So while I don't think Lebron-to-Philly is actually advantageous for either Lebron or the Sixers, I don't think it happens anyway. Why would the Sixers give Lebron more than any other team in the league, they are the most immune to his charms.

Paul George? No. Lemme ask you something: what the fuck has Paul George ever done? What big games did he win, which series did he drag his team past a goliath, how many times did he nail down the #1 seed or uplift a town so much as to transcend holy men and great statesmen? I think Paul George is a helluva player but why would the Sixers expect anything of him if they bring him in? They need to add a veteran to the youth movement but is it plainly obvious that Paul George is the right fit in any way? He's gonna command a huge paycheck, he's gonna steal attention and stats from the kids without necessarily contributing more wins--though clearly they'd be a good team. I'm not sure his style would mesh, I'm not convinced he makes Simmons or Embiid better players, I think he's a distraction rather than an addition. And a big money distraction, at that.

No, fuck all that, Sixers. I'd go after Marcus Smart, Aaron Gordon, and Enes Kanter. Smart is a free agent this summer, the Celtics choice: pay Smart now or pay Rozier next summer? I don't think they'll do both but I think Rozier's emergence in this playoff run has shown that he has more reliable (and cheaper) value as a 2nd string ball handler and scoring option than Smart's crazy highs/lows (though his highs are better than anything Rozier can do); I think the Celtics are a better team when Smart plays but I think Ainge reckons he can replace him, I think they let Smart walk. Sixers should be all over Marcus Smart. He's the veteran that just beat the youth movement through hard work and loyalty and love of the game and just a crazed desire to win, all of which these Sixers kids could really use. I think Smart forms a great platoon with Covington (I like Covington better coming off the bench, nice upgrade for the 2nd string), meshes perfectly with Simmons slashing and the Embiid down low takeovers. I say give Marcus Smart (say, 4yrs/$60m), with the instruction to go out there and win Defensive Player of the Year and next year in the playoffs, we want you punch Brad Stevens dead in the face, if Smart's down with all that, then welcome to the team, brother.

Aaron Gordon is a restricted free agent with the Magic. He's had moments of brilliance on both ends of the floor...but...just moments. Hey, I'm willing to chalk it up to Orlando just being bloody awful at everything for the last few years. I'd go hard after this reclamation project, that likes to move with the ball and knock down 3's, waterbug around the basket on the d side. Offer him 3yrs/$30m (team option 3rd year), tell him you want career highs in FG%, Free Throw Attempts and Defensive Rebounds. Simmons and Embiid are the stars, no need to unbalance that. Gordon is another young athlete to throw in the mix that doesn't cost too much or take up too much oxygen, he knows how to play and he'll be another fun addition to the lineup. 

If the Sixers want a big money free agent, how about Enes Kanter? He has a 1yr/$18.6m player option with the Knicks. He probably figures he can make than that and maybe he can. For the Sixers, Kanter can fill the 2 year window before the big contracts kick in. Kanter played with the crazed attack of Russell Westbrook, playing alongside Ben Simmons should be a boon for his FG%. Look, around the basket Kanter is great, really great, much better than you think kinda great; but, more than 5 feet from the hole, he gets pretty useless pretty fast. So the trick is to play him at center, hover around the basket for passes from Simmons or McConnell and collect the scraps from Embiid and Saric. I think he can be great with the Sixers. And, again, a reliable vet, not some attention hog that needs all the money. For 2 years he can come in and contribute (then they probably let him move on). For 2yrs/$45m does that budge Kanter to Philly?

Yes: the youth movement eventually needs a veteran to build around. But a guy like Lebron warps your franchise for a decade after he leaves, why throw in with that when you've already got the next two superstars in Simmons and Embiid? And a promising batch of cheap talent (Saric, Covington, McConnell, Fultz) around them with another batch of young talent to keep an eye on (Luwawu, Korkmaz). You've beaten the Lebron game, why play it? Stick with the greatest youth movement in eons, add more youth that everyone else gave up on (Smart, Gordon), get an underappreciated veteran to do his one thing really well (Kanter) and still have money to make moves at the deadline, without mortgaging your future to a guy that already is what he is. Durant is worth the effort, Kawhi (probably) is worth the effort and Klay Thompson is worth the effort (and Jaysun Tatum, but that ain't happening). That's it, Durant, Kawhi and Klay are really the only three in the league worth Machivellian moves this summer. I don't think Durant is truly available, I think Kawhi would be the most expensive move to make--the Sixers should go after Klay Thompson. What does it take to get Klay Thompson? I'd value Marcus Smart right alongside those guys because his presence really would be a game-changer for this team (and he's more likely to be available).

But, man, they don't need Lebron, they don't need Paul George or Cousins or Deandre or--OMG--Carmelo or Chris Paul or any of that stuff. There's a lot of hidden costs that come with guys like that. They're great players (well....not Carmelo) but a great player can be disruptive, they're not the process, they are where the process gets sidetracked. (Go get Klay!) Don't go nuts with the money just because you've got it. Go nuts when you can get what you want, not simply what's the most expensive.

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