Heat 93-104 Nuggets
Heat 111-108 Nuggets
Weird coupla games. The Nuggets played their two worst games of the playoffs so far. But in Game One they won handily and in Game Two they had a chance to tie it up at the buzzer.
The Heat definitely figured some things out in Game Two. On offense: just keep swinging the ball around and the Nuggets will eventually either fall asleep or make a dumb foul. Yeah, the Nuggets suck on defense and if you keep moving the ball, they will falter; oddly, I think this works better without Jimmy Butler on the floor, so this is more a strategy for the Kyle Lowry-Duncan Robinson-Cody Zeller unit, but I think it is a good strategy. And on defense: use the 2-1-2 zone to keep Jokic on an island. I was really surprised at how well it worked, it impeded the flow and kept the Nuggets out of their routine. If the Heat can keep that up, the Nuggets offense becomes quite a bit less than the juggernaut it has been.
The Nuggets, on the other hand, played badly, still won and almost won again. The Nuggets are a finesse team and they haven't had to deal with the toughness that Miami brings. The Wolves, Suns and Lakers don't play that way, so even when the Nuggets were tested, it wasn't that kind of test. Can they respond to what the Heat are doing? Can the Nuggets keep the ball moving on offense and minimize dumb mistakes on defense? I think the answer to both questions is "YES"!
I've been picking against the Heat all along but I've told myself that I was mistaken about their opponents rather than them. The Heat play tough and they hang around and when they sniff weakness, they pounce, they play opportunistically and wait for the other side to cave. It worked in Game Two but let's be honest: if the Nuggets pull their shit together 60 seconds earlier, they probably would've won the game. In two games the Heat have forced the Nuggets to play horribly but outside of a nice 4th quarter run, the Heat haven't really been able to answer. Can the Heat keep the Nuggets faltering? I don't think so.
I think Jokic realizes his chance to win a title, I think Jamal Murray is ready to get hot, I think KCP, Aaron Gordon, Jeff Green and Bruce Brown are ready to step up and do some real goon squad shit....the one I worry about is Michael Porter but its hard to imagine him playing worse then he did in Game Two and I think he can still get buckets. I think Coach Malone sees what needs to be done (the Nuggets need to play tougher on defense!) and the crew will respond. As much as I love Coach Spo and admire Butler, I don't think the Heat can go up another level and I don't think the Nuggets can be as bad as they've bad so far. I think Jokic and Murray will figure it out (the key is to have a massive lead in the 4th quarter!).
So while everyone else is zigging, I'm gonna zag (and play right into the same mistake I've been making throughout the playoffs so far): I think the Nuggets will pummel the shit out of the Heat over the next three games. Let me repeat: PUMMEL DA SHIT out of the Heat. I said Nuggets in 5 and I haven't changed my mind. I knew the Heat would get a W, they did it earlier than I thought (*), but I still don't think they're the better team or will outscore the Nuggets again in this series. The Bucks, the Knicks and the Celtics were all ready to lose, I don't think that's true of the Nuggets. I think they've been punched in the face for the first time this post-season and I think they're ready to go full spazz attack on the Heat.
Yeah, I said it: I like the Nuggets big in each of the next three games.
(*) Reminds me of Bucks-Bulls in the 1st round last year. That series had gentleman's sweep written all over it, just a matter of whether the Bulls would win Game Three (and make it look like a series) or Game Four (when the Bucks take the night off and let the Bulls have one last W for the home folks). Well, the Bulls won Game Two in Milwaukee and for a minute, everyone wondered what was going on. Then the Bucks laid the smack down and reminded us all that they were way better than the Bulls. I feel like that's gonna happen here, too.
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