2022-23 NBA Finals

Game Seven: Heat 103-84 Celtics

Jaysun Tatum twisted his ankle on basically the first play of the game and never looked right after that. Jaylen Brown hit some shots but was mostly a turnover machine and no one else get buckets at all. The Heat were resolute and did what they needed to do, but honestly this game was pretty much over well before the end of the 1st quarter.

Last year the Celtics were a disaster for the first coupla months of the season, then the extremely loud teachings of Ime Udoka finally sank in and their defense was phenomenal for a good six months. They blasted their way through the playoffs and ran out of gas in the Finals against the Warriors, who were feeling it. 

In the off-season Coach Udoka was let go due to some kind of improper relationship (does anyone actually know anything about that?) and shortly before opening night, Joe Mazzulla was tabbed to be the head coach. The Celtics started the season strong and though there were doubts about Coach Joe and one bad stretch in March, the Celtics finished 2nd in the East, which is about right. Felt like the Bucks were better but no one else was and the course was set for a Bucks-Celtics East final. Even though the Celtics were sloppy at the ends of games all year long, they won enough to expect a deep run. And after the Bucks got knocked out, the Celtics became the clear favorite even though they dangerously fucked around with the Hawks (woefully outmanned) and the Sixers (Embiid but not much else). Then they fell down 3-0 to the Heat. Showed real grit in Game Four, had a bust out performance in Game Five, got lucky as hell in Game Six (though really were the better team for most of the game) and a historic comeback was well underway. But....didn't happen. The Celtics didn't show, Coach Joe had nothing and the Celtic fans lost interest quick. 

Which brings us to the Finals....

Let's recap the Nuggets' path. They dropped 1 game to the Wolves--a road game they weren't even trying to win and still took to overtime. They dropped 2 games to the Suns--both on the road and both sporting monster performances from Devin Booker and Kevin Durant. And they swept the Lakers--though to be fair, all 4 games were close and the Lakers had an amazing run of their own to get there. 

As for the Heat, they caught the Bucks not ready to play--the Bucks to me looked like they just expected to win regardless of their effort or skill. They quickly wore down the Knicks--a nice team on the rise but the 2nd round was as far as they were ever going to go. They caught the neurotic Celtics unable to consistently find a game plan. 

Do you see my point here? The Heat advanced because they were up against weak teams that weren't ready to win. That description does not fit the Nuggets. Yes, I picked against the Heat 3 straight times and I was wrong every time--but I was wrong about their opponents, not about the Heat. Each time I expected the other team to do more than than they were capable of doing and the Heat punished them (and me). Yeah, that ain't happening this time. Maybe I'm crazy for picking against the Heat again, but the Nuggets are better than all the teams in the East and they're balling like crazy. 

The Heat are shooting the ball out of their minds--can they improve? I don't see how. It'd be amazing if they continued what they were doing, but I don't see them getting better. Their chances of outscoring the Nuggets (especially in Denver) is very small. 

The Heat really only have one chance: if their defense can figure out how to bottle up Jokic, then they might have a chance. Of course, if Jokic is bottled, the Nuggets will still have other scorers and playmakers that can step up. And overplaying on defense will basically remove Bam Adebayo from the offense and/or run down Max Strus, so is that really even a good thing? The Nuggets don't stay cold for very long, so I just don't see anything the Heat can do to win games. 

I might've given the Celtics a puncher's chance in Game One at home, but I give no such chance to the Heat on the road. In fact, I give them no chance in Game Two either. The Heat can perhaps steal a game back home, but after 4 games I expect the Nuggets to be up 3-1 heading back to Denver for Game Five, which I do not expect the Heat to win.

I picked the Celtics over the Heat but I was lukewarm on that pick before the series and gave up on it even after the Celtics won 3 straight to get to Game Seven. The Heat have been great all post-season long, Jimmy Butler and Caleb Martin have both been great, Bam Adebayo and Max Strus and Gabe Vincent and Duncan Robinson have been very good, Kyle Lowry has had effective moments, even Heywood Highsmith had some nice run. They'll be getting Tyler Herro back, but outside of a potential burst in Games Three and/or Four, I don't see how he changes much. 

I haven't said much about the Nuggets because I don't have to. They've been the best team in the league pretty much all season long, Nikola Jokic is the best player in the NBA right now, Jamal Murray is ballin', Micheal Porter is playing the best ball of his life, Kentavius Caldwell-Pope and Jeff Green are the perfect complementary vets and Bruce Brown is arguably the best free agent signing of last summer. Coach Malone has long been under appreciated and he is about to get his due and Denver itself is arguably the single greatest home court advantage in all of American sports. The Heat have been great but the run ends here, all the sad sappy suckers are gone from the schedule. Nuggets in 5.