Chiefs 25-22 (OT) Niners
Some complained that this was a boring game but I was riveted throughout. Defense does not mean boring. The Niners looked great on the opening drive, I really think they were on their way to a TD but McCaffrey fumbled and that put a chill on the Niners that hung over them for the rest of the game. The Chiefs went 3-and-out on their first possession, something that hadn't happened in the Chiefs' last 8 (I think) playoff games, and it felt like we had a defensive grudge match on our hands, when it initially felt like it might be a scorefest.
The Chiefs next possession drove deep, felt like they were going to the end zone, til Pacheco fumbled and now we were back to defensive sludge game. That's all right by me, man.
The Niners finally got to the house on a nifty trick play where WR Jauan Jennings threw back across the field to McCraffrey for the TD. They had already scored an FG--the longest FG in Super Bowl history (well, until the next FG, which was KC scoring just before halftime to make it 10-3). The fact that the Niners only scored 10 points though they had way more offense was concerning, they needed more, they needed a bigger lead.
The Chiefs got the ball after halftime, but Mahomes promptly threw an interception (looked to me like he had a high guy and a low guy, changed his mind too late, put the ball in between them for the easy pick), an uncharacteristic move. But up to this point that Chiefs had one nice pass play and that was pretty much the whole offensive output. I thought the 1st half would be a lot of passing to Kelce and running with Pacheco, but they didn't settle into that formula until the 2nd half.
The Niners weren't able to capitalize, both teams were stung by untimely penalties that made 1st downs hard to come by. So both teams punted a lot. Good defense, but just as often it was offensive lapses that impeded progress.
The real game changer was the muffed punt: the ball went off a Niner blocker, Chiefs recovered inside the red zone--a gift considering how little the Chiefs had moved the ball up to that point. The Chiefs quickly turned it into a TD (yes! That's how you do it: always throw at the end zone immediately after a turnover!) and suddenly they were up 13-10, though the Niners had kinda dominated the offense.
The Niners came right back and regained the lead but they missed the extra point, which would loom large as the game continued.
Both teams made big plays and both teams made crushing mistakes. Most of the crushing mistake were untimely penalties that forestalled a drive, but each team had bad turnovers, too. Both teams played well but neither played flawless.
The Chiefs were able to tie it up, the game went to OT and here is where we get the main talking head talking point: the Niners gave the game away by taking the ball first in OT! I write this facetiously because as this is the first game in NFL history to be settled under these OT rules, no one knew what was going to happen next. Furthermore statistical analysis (not sure what there is to analyze, since this had never happened before, but mathematicians love to think math equals reality, so...), suggests that the odds are roughly 50.1 to 49.9, which is statistically irrelevant so still not sure the basis of anyone's pronouncements here, except that the Niners lost and therefore they did a stupid thing. The rationale, I suppose, is that if you go 2nd you know what you have to do; I have no idea why people think this is an advantage and if the Niners had scored a TD, then forced the Chiefs to go 4-and-out, these same people would be saying the Niners made the right move so....they key here is to ignore jugheads on the internet.
I thought Shanahan was giving his defense a rest and that first drive in OT was pretty great and it might've ended in a TD if Chris Jones (the low key MVP of this game) hadn't thrown QB Purdy out of his rhythm, because he had Jennings coming open for the TD. Jones had another pressure like this earlier in the 4th quarter that prevented Purdy from connecting on a TD then, as well, so Jones basically single-handedly killed two Niners touchdowns.
As I said, both teams played good but not great. The Niners were probably actually the better team but they didn't put up enough points. That muffed punt changed the game and the missed extra point and the two Chris Jones stops kept the game in play for the Chiefs. And, well, Patrick Mahomes is the best in the business right now. The fact that he has the weakest receiver corps in his time in KC is all the more impressive! Mahomes has gone from youthful slinger with weapons downfield to thoughtful game manager who knows his defense is good enough to win games. That maturation is amazing. I never believed in the Chiefs throughout the playoffs, I only believed in Mahomes and along with Chris Jones making timely defensive plays, that was enough to win the Super Bowl. Amazing.
It took me a while to write this and just yesterday the Niners fired the Defensive Coordinator Steve Wilks, which strikes me as an unnecessary move. The Niner defense was pretty good in this game, although I thought it was shaky against the Packers and Lions in previous weeks, but someone needs to take the blame, I suppose, and Wilks and Shanahan had had their differences throughout the season.
So pre-pre-pre-season pick for next year's Super Bowl. I feel like the AFC should be a lot better next year. The Jets will have healthy Aaron Rodgers, the Browns will have healthy Deshaun Watson, the Chargers should be rejuvenated by Coach Harbaugh, the Bengals will likely be out of their funk, the Pats will have a new QB, the Steelers look to be trading for QB Justin Fields to go with their still-good defense, the Jags will be back, the Raiders will likely be more consistent, the Texans have their offensive identity in place, so the Chiefs, Ravens and Bills will not have an easy march to the post-season. I had the Bengals to make the Super Bowl last year but they never really got going and then QB Burrow got hurt; I'll take the Bengals to bounce back.
In the NFC, the Packers are the team that impressed me most in the playoffs, they have their QB and their RB and their O-line was really great down the stretch, they've got a lot to work with. The Lions should be good again, the Cowboys won't suck (until the playoffs), the Eagles should still be pretty good top to bottom, the Bucs had moments (we'll see if they can build something on them), the Rams were pretty good when they wanted to be, the Commanders will have a new QB, the Falcons just need a QB, and the Niners will surely be back, too. If the Lions can keep the momentum going, it'd be great to see them have some actual success.
I'll say Bengals-Lions is your next Super Bowl (yeah, we'll see if I still think that in August).
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