Lebron is currently averaging 27.6ppg/10.8rpg/8.3apg. Dang. He's gonna need to up the points to about 32 and average a triple double in the Finals to even come close to winning. He'll probably do that and still not come close to winning.
Kyrie does not seem to be at 100%. I thought the Hawks would run him ragged, turns out they never got the chance. If he's healthy, the Cavs can pile up points and stay in games; if he's not I just don't see how the Cavs outscore the Warriors.
I've been impressed with the Thompson-Mozgov tagteam down low. They banged well against the Bulls, thought they'd be outplayed by the nimble Hawks by they were not. Indeed, I'd say it was the implacability of Thompson and Mozgov around the basket that spelled the Hawks' doom. The Warriors are surprisingly tough down low (considering what a finesse team they are), I think Thompson-Mozgov will handle themselves just fine, taking away 2nd chance points may be crucial, but I can't see them being the difference-maker in any kind of Cav victory.
Smith is playing out of his mind right now. If he stays this good, then he'll make a for-real contribution and could be the difference between pulling it out or not. But if he's anything less than this good (and he'll be getting marked by Klay/Iguodala/Barnes/Livingston), the Cavs won't be able to put enough on the scoreboard to hang.
Shumpert is the defensive maestro but how do you maximize his contribution? Put him on Curry and he'll run around all day, make no difference and give you no points. Put him on Klay, he'll have to body up, run the risk of foul trouble, and he still gives the Cavs no points. Put him on Barnes and the other guys are free to bomb away. There are no good cards in that hand. In the end, seems like Shumpert's offensive production can't help but suffer regardless of how his defense holds up.
I think Dellavadova's run of surprising success ends here. The Hawks were outmanned without Sefolosha, Carroll, Korver and Horford; the Warriors are not outmanned and Iguodala is probably clearing a space on his wall for the head of Dellavadova (jeez, that's kinda gruesome). But, seriously, Dellavadova's Barea-like game is not gonna get the best of the Warriors.
Jones has played the 8th most amount of minutes for the Cavs during this playoff run and I suppose that will continue on into the Final. I can see Perkins coming in for thug moments, Harris in case of foul trouble, Miller in mop up time, Marion if absolutely everything is going wrong, and Haywood only plays if a comet hits the bus and everyone's dead. K Love is not available at all.
Curry is money. Before game 2 against the Grizzlies, Curry was presented with his MVP trophy, then went out and played one of his crappier games of the year; he wasn't quite right in game 3 but when push came to shove in game 4, he re-established himself and has been his usual badass self for 8 straight games. I anticipate he will be at full money for the next 4-7 games.
Klay Thompson is coming off 'concussion-like symptoms' after getting kneed in the brain by Trevor Ariza. If he's money, he is the front line of the great Warrior defense. I expect him to outplay Smith and/or Shumpert.
Barnes is a bonus wild card on both ends of the court for the Warriors: they don't really need him, he just adds. He's a good defender, good driver, decent shooter, good passer, good team concept guy. Smith and Shumpert are nice players but neither brings the intangibles that Barnes possesses.
Draymond Green should've won Defensive Player of the Year and Most Improved, if he plays his cards right, he might snag Finals MVP instead. Don't be surprised if Green is the one that really holds it all together for the Warriors. If Green outplays the Thompson-Mozgov monster, then he'll be scoring plenty of points, getting plenty of rebounds and contributing plenty of highlights, those are the kinda of things the thinking-man's basketball fan loves and if Green really rocks out, then Curry might not need to rock out himself, don't be surprised if Green sneaks the MVP. (Currently 2nd most in Minutes Played, FTA's, assists, steals, blocks for the Warriors this post-season)
Bogut is the crafty veteran that Thompson and Mozgov aren't. I can't see Bogut dominating those two but nor can I see getting dominated by those two. I tend to think the Bogut-Green vs Thompson-Moagov battle will be mostly a standstill but the Warriors will get the extra opportunities that will crush the Cavs.
Iguodala has played the 5th most minutes for the Warriors this post-season, meaning he is rested and ready to ball out for this last series. I expect him to play great, he'll mark Lebron at times and he'll get a lot of assists. (Could be auditioning for a job outside of Golden State...?)
Livingston and Barbosa bring size and sure hands off the bench. They'll smother Dellevadova. (Livingston has zero 3FGA's this post-season...isn't that weird?)
I've been pretty impressed with Ezeli, not sure I'd ever seen him play before the Rockets series. He'll bring (if nothing else) fouls off the bench. If he can deter Mozgov or Tompson at all, he'll be doing his job.
Lee has barely played this off-season, Speights has been injured but I think he's ready to play. Are these guys the wild cards? I doubt it but they could be. The Warriors have so much scoring depth that they often win by just flat out burying teams; if they can reach this far down their bench and still bring in competent scorers, they could blast open a 3rd quarter and end the game quick-like. Lee is a crafty vet, hasn't played much but if/when he does come off the bench you expect him to be able to contribute; Speights too. The Cavs don't have anything like that at the end of their bench, the Warriors do.
Prediction
Think back to the Heat-Spurs match up last year: the first two games were very competitive, the Heat should've won them both but were only able to pull out Game 2. Now think back to the Rockets-Warriors series we just watched: the first two games were very competitive, certainly not blowouts, but the Warriors were able to hang on to both victories. I think the first two games of this series will be similar: they'll both tight, tough, deep into the 4th quarter kinda games, but I think the Warriors win them both.
(Heat-Spurs Game 3) Lebron wakes up, realizes he's all alone and gets drubbed by the superior Spurs for three straight games. (Rockets-Warriors) Back in Houston for Game 3, the Warriors laid an unholy beatdown on the Rockets, taking control of the game and the series, then cruising to the finish. I think Games 3 & 4 back in Cleveland don't go well for the Cavs. Lebron has carried this team through the East but the Warriors are just better in every way and when they get the 2-0 lead, they will bring the hammer of Thor down on the Cavs in Game 3. And I don't think they stop there, I don't think they give Lebron a chance to pull it together: they jaked it against the Rockets in game 4 (just as the Clippers had in the previous round), but I don't think they'll mess around with Lebron.
Much has been made of the lack of the Warriors' playoff experience and in the NBA that definitely makes a difference. But in this case I think the Warriors will be better served by the lack of experience: I think they'll treat the Cavs will total and absolute respect and play full throttle at all times. The Warriors have won close games, they've won the blowouts and they've been playing better teams than the Cavs all year long; the Cavs haven't played anyone as good as the Warriors right now. The Cavs are not perfectly healthy, the Warriors are. Lebron is still the best and I've been wrong betting against him already but the Warriors are so much better and plenty well tested by this point.
Warriors in 4.
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