2018-19 NBA Pre-season (Southwest)

Grizzlies
Out: Mario Chalmers, Tyreke Evans, Ben McLemore, Deyonta Davis, Myke Henry, Jarrell Martin, Kobi Simmons
The Grizzlies have been grasping at straws for at least the last year and a half, so these straws are out to make room for new straws. Chalmers is a reasonable 2nd/3rd string PG, which is not a high priority for the Grizz right now. Evans was pretty good last year but not a piece going forward (though failing to get value for him at the trade deadline was a whiff). They gave McLemore another shot and learned what we all already knew: helluva athlete, not much a baller. Davis is cheap enough to seem right for this roster but doesn't seem like a big loss (at the moment). Ditto with Henry, Martin and Simmons: they were worth a try at their price points, they may well have earned another shot, but they're probably better off getting that shot with another squad.

In: Jaren Jackson, Kyle Anderson, Omri Casspi, Jevon Carter, Garrett Temple, Yuta Watanabe, (rights to Tyler Harvey), Shelvin Mack, Doral Moore, Markel Crawfod, Brandon Goodwin, DJ Stephens
Jackson is going to be just fine in Memphis, he's got grit, he's got grind, I don't like his ROY chances but I do like his chances to be a firm part of this rotation for years to come (that said, passing on Doncic may look like the biggest mistake of all time and frankly I thought Michael Porter was a good fit for the Grizz--and they could've traded back to get him!). I like Anderson, but I don't see him as a game changer for this roster. Casspi's inability to catch on with the Warriors last year is troubling, makes one wonder if he has anything left. Carter's shooting number in NCAA stayed pretty consistent as his MPG increased, considering that the Grizz need all the scoring they can get, I'd say that's a good sign. Temple is a reasonable vet off the bench (and he allowed them to prune their payroll), he'll get minutes but hard to see him making a huge difference. Mack is another nice vet PG off the bench (the new Chalmers), their desperation for PG's last season suggest he'll get regular minutes and he should be fine in that role. Watanabe, Moore, Crawford, Goodwin and Stephens will fight over the down-the-bench roster spots or the G-League spots and at least a few of them won't last through pre-season (though I have no idea which one).

Re-signed: (none)

All in all
Healthy seasons out of Mike Conley and Marc Gasol will vastly improve this team and a healthy season out of Chandler Parsons would be nice, too. That said, it seems like all three are trade bait...except that this is Memphis, who does that 'loyalty' thing that old people assure us used to happen all the time (I'm dubious). So gotta figure those three are gonna get as many minutes as possible. The rest of the rotation will start with Jaren Jackson and Kyle Anderson, then looks like a patchwork quilt of youth (Brooks, Carter--is Ivan Rabb still on the radar? Or Andrew Harrison?) and vets (Mack, Casspi, Temple) and...uh...MarShon Brooks? (Really? Is that a thing?)

If Conley and Gasol are healthy the Grizzlies will be a lot better. Those guys are good to keep them in games and genuinely savvy enough to win them. If they're not healthy...aw, man....they're gonna wish they had Luka Doncic. (MarShon Brooks looks to actually get minutes, remember that) At best they can hang around the edge of the playoff race but the West looks pretty damn strong, the Grizzlies are gonna struggle to be better than the Wolves or Mavs.


Mavs
Out: Doug McDermott, Aaron Harrison, Nerlens Noel, Kyle Collinsworth, Seth Curry, Yogi Farrell, Johnathon Motley, Renaldas Seibutis, Terry Larrier,
They kinda had Seth Curry and Yogi Farrell stolen out from under them but none of these guys were a focus for the Mavs going forward. McDermott is nice but wasn't gonna get the payday he was looking for in Dallas. Nerlens has talent, but he clearly clashed with Coach Carlisle (and everyone else, according to the buzz) and was never gonna work in Dallas. Harrison, Collinsworth, and Motley weren't part of the future. I don't know Seibutis (well, the rights to him) or Larrier.

In: Deandre Jordan, Luka Doncic, Ryan Broekhoff, Kostas Antetokounpo, Jalen Brunson, Ray Spalding, Daryl Macon, (2020 2nd rd pick swap with Rockets), Devin Harris, Donte Ingram, Rashad Vaughn
All hail the Doncic! This is the new bell cow in town, wouldn't be surprised to see him win ROY and this year is designed to get his feet wet, so they can look to add big time free agents next summer. Deandre is finally a Mav, feels like he could be a good foil for Dennis Smith. Harris is back again with the Mavs. As for the rest, whoever can play gets to stay (Brunson should hang, not sure about any of the rest).

Re-signed: Wesley Matthews (player option), Salah Mejri, Dirk Nowitzki, Jalen Jones
With all the injury problems Matthew has endured lately, gotta figure the Mavs would've been fine with him moving on; but a veteran SF to play lockdown (-ish) D is always a good thing, he should fit in nicely next to Deandre. Mejri was kinda of a fan favorite of the last coupla years, one of those big guys that doesn't overwhelm but works hard and isn't bad. Is this Dirk's final season? (I don't think so, I'm thinking 2 more years--yeah, his defense is abysmal but he's still un-guardable). Jones was a not-bad 3-pt shooter last year and that contract is affordable, not a bad move for the Mavs.

All in all
This is Luka's team now. Not soon, not next year--now! That said, he is a rookie and no one really knows how good he'll be right away (I'm saying ROY, but that doesn't mean he carries the Mavs deep into the playoffs). But make no mistake, he is the center of everything this team will do going forward.

PG Smith, SG Matthews, SF Doncic, PF Barnes, C Jordan with Barrea/Harris, Brunson, Jones, Dirk, Finney-Smith, Powell, Mejri. Lot of unknowns here: how will Smith and Luka hit it off? Is Matthews just playing out his contract or is he back to bad-ass defender level? Can Jordan make a difference down low or is he just taking up cap space? Is Barnes actually gonna be as good as he's supposed to be? Was Powell a fluke or can he be a force off the bench? Will Jalen Brunson give good minutes? Is the Barrea/Harris platoon really good enough to keep the 2nd string effective? Do the Mavs even wanna be good this year or are they looking to all that cap space they'll have next summer?

It'll take time for Smith and Luke to work it out, they're both ball-dominant guys and since success is not imminent, hard feelings could develop in the locker room; but they're both good players, they'll figure it out. I have no idea about Matthews, Barnes, Brunson or Powell; if those guys are all good, the Mavs could vastly improve this year. As for the veterans PG's, well, Barrea is still amazingly efficient (once Brandon Knight's price point comes down, this seems like the spot for him, no?) but I suspect this won't last past next summer--and if the Mavs actually think they can win this year, I would expect to see them upgrade ball handlers off the bench first and foremost.

I dunno, man. I can actually see this team being really good but its hard to imagine that'll happen right away. I think they hang around the 8th spot most all year long--ideally, they'd make a late push and then just miss the playoffs, giving them hope for next year (Dirk's last year) on which they could invest that big ol' knot of cap space they'll have. The Mavs will be good again but I'd be surprised if was this season.


Pelicans
Out: Charles Cooke, Demarcus Cousins, Jordan Crawford, Rajon Rondo, Deandre Liggins, Emeka Okafor
Boogie Cousins was having a great season when he got hurt last year...but the team got better after he was out; tough to lose a great player but Boogie takes up a lot of oxygen, I think they're better without him. Rondo, on the other hand, I thought looked as good as he has in years with the Pelicans and I think it's a mistake for him to leave (ehh, I may be wrong about that, though I'd be surprised if he lasted more than one year in LA). Okafor and Liggins are fine practice player, Crawford and Cooke are not big losses.

In: Elfrid Payton, Julius Randle, Trevon Bluitt, Garlon Green, Kenrich Williams, Troy Williams, Jahlil Okafor, Darius Morris, Jarrett Jack, Brandon McCoy
Payton is a bit frustrating as an old timey pass-first PG but I think there's enough scoring around him to put him in the Rondo role. Randle, too, is frustrating because of his rather unorthodox style (check him out: he's a lefty that refuses to play like a lefty), but his fearlessness is kinda joyous to watch and I think he'll fit in just fine in this rotation. I liked Bluitt in NCAA, a combo guard that looks to score as well as pass, I do not if he'll make it in the League but he's worth a shot. Hey, man, I thought the criticism of Okafor was wildly overblown, kinda soft on D but I think he can be a top flight scorer (I'd aim for him as 6th man here). Jarret Jack....damn, that dude is still around....all right. I don't know Green, Williams, Williams, Morris or McCoy.

Re-signed: Ian Clark
His numbers kinda dropped off last year but the contract is reasonable (I might've preferred a run at Patrick McCaw instead, but okay).

All in all
They blasted the Blazers in the playoffs last year--looked poised to give the Warriors a run (uh, didn't happen). I think they can do that again though with Lakers, Mavs, Grizzlies and Nuggets set to be better next year, there's not much room for the Pelicans, so they better hit the ground running.

PG Holiday, SG Moore, SF Mirotic, PF Okafor, C Davis with Payton/Jackson, Clark/Jack, Miller/Hill, Randle, Ajinca. It'd be nice if Diallo takes a step forward or if Troy Williams gives a little more than expected. That's a nice team, not a great one, and it's up to Anthony Davis to be an MVP to make this work. If Davis is the best he can be and Okafor and Randle have something like a renaissance then the Pelicans can maybe get up to 4th but I think fighting for 8th is probably more likely.


Rockets
Out: Joe Johnson, Luc Mbah a Moute, Tarik Black, Trevor Ariza, Aaron Jackson, Markel Brown, Chinanu Onuaku, Ryan Anderson, RJ Hunter
Ariza did an awful lot for this team over the last few years but I don't think he's irreplaceable. But I found Johnson, Mbah a Moute, and Anderson were more overpaid than useful. Black, Brown, Onuaku and Hunter were youngsters that didn't find much run in Houston because this is a roster based on vets not youngsters.

In: Gary Clark, (rights to Vince Edwards), Michael Carter-Williams, James Ennis, Isaih Hartenstein, Carmelo Anthony, (rights to Maarty Leunen), Marquesse Chriss, Brandon Knight, Bruno Caboclo
Ennis is a good pick up (and the potential replacement for Ariza) and I still like Knight, I think he can maximize their 2nd string. I'm still not a fan of Carmelo and while the price tag is right, we'll see if his game complements the vibe. MCW is a reasonable ball handler but not much of a scorer (I guess he could be paired with Knight off the bench). The brass seems to love Hartenstein and if he can give energy off the bench, that'd be great. Personally I was never much of a fan of Chriss (what is his game? What does he do?) but getting him a a throw-in could turn out to be a masterstroke for this roster. Caboclo, too, might be nothing but maybe he finally he hits his stride. Edwards and Clark may look like 'youth' but 'roster-filler' is probably more accurate.

Re-signed: (Coach D'antoni extended), Gerald Green (1yr/$2.4m), Chris Paul (4yr/$158.7), Clint Capela (5yr/$90m)
D'antoni has served them well so far, seems like a good call to pay the man. I thought Green was surprisingly effective for them in the post-season and that is a very reasonable deal. CP, on the other hand...I dunno, man...he's still good...but 4 years? At that price? This might be the deal that buries them (though letting him go would not have served them well either). Capela dangled most of the summer but they needed him back and they got him.

All in all
James Harden's Barry Bonds-like efficiency is what makes the Rockets a fearsome team. Chris Paul adds to that and the proper use of Clint Capela does, too. After that they're just another squad. So while I think they can win a ton of regular season games, I'm still dubious of their ability to outduel the Warriors (and maybe even the Lakers, who will be featuring a pretty efficient guy themselves). I wouldn't be surprised to see them finish 1st in the West, but I always surprised to see them get bounced in the 2nd round of the playoffs. We'll see.


Spurs
Out: Joffrey Lauvergne, Matt Costello, Tony Parker, Kyle Anderson, Kawhi Leonard, Danny Green, Darrun Hilliard, Manu Ginobli,
Man, no Manu, no Parker, no Kawhi, not even Kyle Anderson or Danny Green! Massive turnover for the Spurs this year, we're gonna find out if that Popovic guy can actually coach, I guess.

In: Marco Belinelli, Lonnie Walker, Dante Cunningham, DeMar DeRozan, Jakob Poetl, (2019 Raptors 1st rd pick), Quincy Pondexter, Chimizie Metu, Drew Eubanks, Jarron Blossongame, Nick Johnson, Okaro White
Belinelli is back for his 2nd tour with the Spurs, he'll give them wing scoring off the bench. Walker looks to be a defensive specialist, which should suit Pop's style and get him regular minutes off the bench. Cunningham and Pondexter are a pair 3-and-D vets off the bench. DeRozan is now the man, how he pairs with Aldridge will determine how far the Spurs go this season. Metu had decent numbers at Southern Cal, seems like he'll fall in line behind Pau. Blossongame, Johnson and White were all guys that had draft buzz but fell, seems like exactly what the Spurs are looking for.

Re-signed: Bryn Forbes, Davis Bertans, Rudy Gay, Dejounte Murray (team option), Jakob Poetl (team option), Derrick White (team option)
I thought Gay was gonna bail (wouldn't the Lakers rather have him than, say, Lance Stephenson or JaVale McGee?), but here he is, ready to shore up the bench again. I like Forbes and Bertans, they work hard and do the little things the Spurs like. Picking up the options on Murray, White and Poetl were positive moves, I'd say, good to go ahead and give the confidence vote to the rank and file.

All in all
The Spurs are brand new now and yet strangely similar to last season--but probably better. (Hmmm, that doesn't seem right, does it?) I was ready to predict a Renaissance...but then Murray blew out his knee and, man, that throws a real wrench in their rotation. He was set to take off but even if he was just average that would've been better than what awaits without him.

Starting lineup: PG Mills, SG DeRozan, SF Gay, PF Gasol, C Aldridge with Forbes, Walker, Belinelli, Pondexter, Cunningham, Poetl, Bertans off the bench (with any growth out of Blossongame and Metu being a bonus). That's not bad. This team has been seemingly steadily declining in talent but still manages to breeze into the playoffs every year because they get such good efficiency from the entire roster. And I was expecting that to continue this season. That said, I still like the Spurs to make the playoffs, coming in with a newfound underdog swagger (though I don't see them giving the Warriors much worry in the 1st round).

2017-18 NBA Preview: Southwest Division

Rockets
PG Paul, SG Harden, SF Anderson, PF Ariza, C Capela
Bench: SG Gordon, SF Tucker/Mbah a Moute, PF Black/Zhou Qi, C Nene/Onuaku

Another one of the numerous notable trades this summer netted the Rockets Hall of Fame PG Chris Paul to go alongside unstoppable scoring machine James Harden. Instantly hailed as a great move, it vaulted the Rockets into the discussion of teams that could go to battle with the Warriors. Ehhhh....I don't see it. I like CP as much as the next guy but I think he and Harden are a terrible combination: they both need the ball all the time and their personalities could not be more diametrically opposed. And if either of them gets hurt, there's no depth behind them (obviously they'd be hard to replace under any circumstances but this lack of depth is kinda scary). And all that said: Paul is getting older, getting more injury-prone and was never much of a presence in the post-season at his best. This is one those moves that seems like a no-brainer at the time but by next summer I think could look like a big ol' albatross. Oh, don't get me wrong, I'm sure they'll figure out how to co-exist but I don't think this makes them stronger in the post-season or the future. It'll be interesting to see what Paul gets out of Capela and I'm curious about Zhou Qi, a completely forgotten Chinese prospect who rocked up and down the 2016 mock draft boards (what if he's Porzingis?). In the end, I'll take them to finish 3rd in the West (and get drilled by OKC in the 2nd round) but I don't see them as a juggernaut in the making. I think they'll get 56 wins.

Spurs
PG Mills, SG Green, SF Kawhi, PF Aldridge, C Gasol
Bench: PG Murray/Parker, SG Forbes, SF Anderson, PF Gay, C Lauvergne

Every year we wonder if the Spurs can keep it going and every year they do even though we think they can't. If Kawhi gets hurt, this team will flounder but if he stays healthy I think they'll be their usual top quality selves. I don't know if Murray starts right away but I'd start Mills, letting Parker get in 15-20 minutes off the bench. Sounds like they're moving backwards but that looks pretty good to me. Aldridge has taken a lot of abuse lately but I still believe in him (the problem is his game was never Pop's game and vice versa), if he can carve out some space for himself he can still pile on points. Pau and Gay round out the veterans, Anderson and Forbes are the up-and-comers, I say pencil them in for 53 wins (and we'll call it a disappointment).

Pelicans
PG Rondo, SG Holliday, SF Allen , PF Davis, C Cousins
Bench: PG Crawford/Jackson, SG Clark/Miller/Moore, SF Cunningham/Hill, PF Diallo, C Ajinca/Ask

Okay, this is it for the Pelicans. They've got til February to figure out what to do with Cousins, which invariable will be trading him (don't ya think?). And if Cousins goes...*sigh*....Anthony Davis should go too. When they first drafted Davis they immediately went into win-now mode which unfortunately did not work and hamstrung their salary cap for years. I'd never suggest getting rid of a great player but even great players need some service and the Pelicans have failed to serve their great players. Now they have TWO great players neither of whom will flourish in what the Pelicans have built. Now is the time to get what they can for Cousins, get the best package possible for Davis (the Celtics still have plenty of worthwhile pieces), stretch Asik and start piling up draft picks to pack around Holliday....oh, wait, that sounds like a terrible idea. Man, the Cousins-Davis thing has to work or this disaster just keeps going. Oh well. Even with all the turmoil I still like the Pelicans to be marginally better. 38 wins.

Mavs
PG Smith, SG Barnes, SF Matthews, PF Nowitzki, C Nerlens
Bench: PG Farrell/Barea/Harris, SG Curry, SF McRoberts/Finney-Smith, PF Powell, C Withey

Why don't free agents want to play in Dallas? Cool city, Dirk's great, Coach Carlisle is outstanding, Cuban's a good owner, history of winning, good fans. Why are they still carrying JJ Barea and Devin Harris? Why is Jeff Withey the best big man they can get? And why did they have to play chicken with Nerlens to bring him back? Weird. Anyway, they've got a good coach, the PG is a rookie but I think he's gonna be really good (either Smith and Carlisle get along famously or they flat fucking hate each other, good fun either way), Nerlens and Powell should make a pretty good combo, and Dirk still has 1-2 good years left in him. I think this team could be kinda fun and if Smith is the deal then they could really take off; on the other hand, they could implode and be truly awful; along with the Pelicans I think they have the widest possible variance in the league. I like them to be slightly better than last year, 37 wins.

Grizzlies
PG Conley, SG Tyreke, SF Parsons, PF Gasol, C Wright
Bench: PG Chalmers/Harrison, SG Baldwin/Selden/Brooks/Zagorac, SF McLemore, PF Green/Ennis/Rabb, C Davis

I dunno, my gut feeling is the Conley-Gasol core is getting too old, Tyreke Evans and Chalmers only make them older, Parsons and Wright don't make them any more efficient and the raft of youngsters are kinda promising but not ready yet. It feels to me like a rebuild year, like its time to start salary dumping and accumulating draft picks. But if the vets stay healthy and the youngsters can get coached up, maybe this team coalesces into something. Hard to imagine the Grizzlies being bad but that seems more likely than them being good. I think they get 29 wins (and make at least one major trade this year).