2018-19 NBA Predictions

Rookie of the Year: Luka Doncic (Mavs)
I got a feeling this won't even be close. Dude, the guy can already play, we know that and the fact that multiple teams passed on him in search of "upside" is absurd. The Mavs are a good place for him to be, once he and Smith get a rhythm, he'll be off to the races.

Other candidates: Deandre Ayton (Suns) has looked good in pre-season and since the Suns look pretty terrible to my eye, he'll have plenty of opportunities to shine out. Kevin Knox (Kncks) is gonna be good, he's gonna be fun, he's gonna get plenty of playing time and he'll be in New York, if anyone gets more praise than Doncic, it'll be probably be Knox. Jaren Jackson (Grizzlies) and Wendell Carter (Bulls) should both get plenty of playing time and I expect them to be solid rotation guys right away--which is a good thing--but I don't think it'll be enough to elevate either of them to the top of the class in the 1st year. Harry Giles (King) was the #1 prospect coming out of high school 3 years ago, but an injury-plagues coupla years have dropped him out of the limelight, but considering that the Kings are the Kings, he'll get plenty of chances to shine and I suspect by the end of the year he'll be balling out. Grayson Allen (Jazz) is not the top of his class but Utah is a good spot for him, he'll get time in a system where he can play his game; I can see him having a really good year. Lonnie Walker (Spurs) is, injuries aside, in a good place to learn how the NBA works, I think they'll maximize his athleticism and he'll be an important of the rotation by the end of the year. I got a weird feeling that Jacob Evans (Warriors) is gonna be really good and if that turns out to be the case, I think he'll get playing time and a lot of admirers. And keep an eye on Elie Okobo (Suns), he'll get playing time and he should have plenty of opportunity to establish himself.


MVP: Anthony Davis (Pelicans)
The West will be in flux this year and the Pelicans have the potential to make a nice jump--if Davis shows up and leads the way. I think he will. I think he'll score with efficiency, be a defensive badass and make the kind of plays that drop jaws. And if the Pelicans comfortably glide into the playoffs, that should be enough to earn him serious MVP votes. (Also throw in that the Warriors, Celtics and Raptors have such deep rosters that they won't be absorbing any of those votes)

Other candidates: Lebron James (Lakers) will definitely get attention if he balls out in a Lakers uni the way he did last year in Cleveland and that could definitely happen, but I got a feeling Lebron eases up a bit (also, of course, the Lakers will have ups and downs that taunt the media). Kawhi Leonard (Raptors) is set for a big comeback year on a good team with a deep bench and an adoring crowd, I can absolutely see him winning hearts and minds. Giannis Antetokounpo (Bucks) is all set to have a breakout year especially now that he finally has a coach that will maximize his potential. Donovan Mitchell (Jazz) is the leader of a really good team and he's got nothing better to do than be a badass on the court (but I think he's too young to get the votes). Joel Embiid (Sixers) is exciting and ready to jump and even though this is really Simmons' team, I can see Embiid taking a lot of the credit. Longshots: Kemba Walker (Hornets), Victor Oladipo (Pacers), Damien Lillard (Blazers) are all leaders of their teams and if any of them can drag their teams further up the standings, I can see them getting votes.


Defensive Player of the Year: Kawhi Leonard (Raptors)
I was gonna go with Davis here but I gave him MVP, so I think this will be Kawhi's prize. If Kawhi has his regular season, his defense alone will spur (*) the Raptors to a lot of wins, a lot of easy buckets on offense, a point differential that may lead the league. And they'll be fun to watch, they'll  be competitive against the best teams and they should crush the shit out of the lesser squads. And Comeback won't really seem appropriate, so voters will be dying to give him this.

Other candidates: Rudy Gobert (Jazz) was, I thought kinda overrated last year but he is great and if he stays healthy he will anchor a really good team on the rise and that will earn him many votes. Paul George (Thunder) will deserve his own accolades after living in Westbrook's shadow and frankly the team is built for him to be the leader on the defensive end. Anthony Davis (Pelicans) will win MVP but if he doesn't, he'll be high over here. Ben Simmons (Sixers), Robert Covington (Sixers), Joel Embiid (Sixers) will anchor potentially the league's best D but they'll take votes from each other so hard to imagine any of them actually winning. Victor Oladipo (Pacers) led the league in Steals last year, I can see him doing it again. Andre Drummond (Pistons) has been overlooked most of his career but if the Pistons can slither into the playoffs (I had 'em 7th in the East), then he'll be deserving of some recognition.


6th Man: Isiah Thomas (Nuggets)
I'm struggling to figure who will dominate off the bench season--and Thomas may well be a starter! But it seems to me if the Nuggets use him correctly, it'll be bringing him late and giving him a green light against everyone else's 2nd string. I also kinda like Julius Randle (Pelicans) for the same reason. And, of course, Lou Williams (Clippers) will get votes, I guarantee.


Most Improved: Brandon Ingram (Lakers)
If Lebron wants it to happen, then this kid will have a monster season and everyone will see it. (That said, I probably would've gone with Dejounte Murray (Spurs) here because he was ready to take over this team but not this year)

Other candidates: Aaron Gordon (Magic) is the best player on a bad team and I can see him being a Fantasy League hoss this season. Jahlil Okafor (Pelicans) was more maligned than need be but it sets a pretty low bar for him if he finds himself off the Pelican bench. Kris Dunn (Bulls) still has, I think, a shot at being really good (though this squad is gonna be a tough one for him to stand out). Dante Exum (Jazz) is, hopefully, going to finally show us what he's got, I suspect he'll be really good off the bench. Dennis Smith (Mavs) should improve as his team improves and the Mavs should be wildly better than last year. Andrew Wiggins (Wolves) looked really good in the first coupla weeks last year, then Jimmy Butler took over and we never saw him again; well, Butler doesn't look to be too much of an impediment this year, now's the time for Wiggins to blow up. Josh Richardson (Heat) has really always been good but I think this year people will finally notice and cement his status as a defensive stopper. Cedi Osman (Cavs) is gonna have plenty of chances to show what he can do, I think he'll be pretty good. Josh Jackson (Suns) has skills but if he can add some scoring to his game, he'll be really good. Willie Cauley-Stein (Kings) is ready to settle into a DPOY-level force for the Kings. John Collins (Hawks) is good and I think he'll get better (though I'm not sure anyone will notice because the Hawks will be very bad).


Coach of the Year: Greg Popovic (Spurs)/Mike Budenholzer (Bucks)
Pop deserves the award pretty much every year but this year, as the new-look Spurs overcome injuries to claw their way into the post-season late (rather than tanking which would be the smart thing to do) and it'll be Pop that takes the lion's share of the credit. As the Bucks cement their place near the top of the East and Giannis becomes a viable MVP candidate, it'll be Coach Bud that gets the cred (and deservedly so).


Executive of the Year: Rob Pelinka (Lakers)/Danny Ainge (Celtics)
Pelinka signed Lebron and you didn't...so....there's that. Ainge has his fingerprints all over the Celtics' roster from brilliant drafts to bold trades to snagging the best coach in all of basketball, as the Celtics climb the standings it'll be Ainge that basks in the glow.


Regular Season:
East/West
Celtics/Warriors
Raptors/Rockets
Bucks/Jazz
Sixers/Thunder
Pacers/Lakers
Wizards/Pelicans
Pistons/Nuggets
Heat/Spurs

Hornets/Blazers
Cavs/Mavs
Bulls/Clippers
Knicks/Wolves
Nets/Grizzlies
Magic/Kings
Hawks/Suns

Playoffs:
Celtics over Heat (5)/Warriors over Spurs (5)
Raptors over Pistons (6)/Rockets over Nuggets (6)
Bucks over Wizards (6)/Jazz over Pelicans (7)
Sixers over Pacers (7)/Lakers over Thunder (7)

Celtics over Sixers (7)/Warriors over Lakers (7)
Raptors over Bucks (7)/Rockets over Jazz (6)

Raptors over Celtics (7)/Warriors over Rockets (6)

Warriors over Raptors (5)


There you go, don't even need the season now, really. But I'm glad it's coming just the same.


(*) Heh, you like that?