2020-21 NBA Awards (Rookie of the Year)

94 NBA Debuts in 2020-21. 21 played over 1000 minutes, 27 played fewer then 100 minutes. 22 averaged more than 20MPG, 9 averaged over 10PPG, 

This rookie class looks to me like a lot of mid-level talent but not a lot of obvious stars. I think this class is going play a ton of games in the future, but probably not a lot of All-Star Games. That's not bad, the world needs good basketball players the same way it needs great ones. 

My criteria: ROY, to me, is a forward-looking (as opposed to backward-looking) award. So, for example, in most of these Awards I have an obsession with Minutes Played (*); but with Rookies, I don't give a shit how many minutes they played. I care about who seems to be the most promising prospect going forward. This is pretty much pure eyeball test because I don't really care about the stats on rookies. How many of these rookies got MVP votes? (Zero) How many of these rookies single-handedly dragged their teams into the playoffs? (Zero) How many of them led the league in anything? (Zero) So...what does comparing their stats tell us? (Almost Zero) The question is who has the best chance to be a bust out superstar? This year, I thought that was a pretty easy call.

Rookie of the Year: Anthony Edwards (Wolves)

Edwards is still very raw but his potential left the Wolves feeling optimistic at the end of the season when, frankly, not much good happened (and they've probably already given away their lottery pick). His athleticism is something unseen before and if Minnesota wasn't such a gloomy organization (**), I think we'd have seen a lot more of him in the general NBA buzz. The way he gets to the rim is something to behold, man, and he's got at least 3-4 more years of getting better at that! Clearly he hasn't actually played much basketball in his life--and I think that's great! He's raw but he doesn't have bad habits! He can be trained to be something unworldly (get to work on FT%, my man, you're gonna be at the line an awful lot). Yeah, the Wolves have pretty much botched everything the last few years and picking a project at #1 was not a guarantee, but I think Edwards has amazing upside and he's my pick for ROY. 

I'll take Tyrese Halliburton (Kings) next. Yeah, yeah, I like LaMelo Ball (Hornets) as much as the next guy, he's got a lot of upside as a playmaker and just a fun watch on the court. But I've got doubts about his ability to be a consistent force, I think it's going to take him a while to settle in to being a reliable player and the way the Hornets have managed rosters over the years, I got a bad feeling he might not ever get there. And head-to-head, Halluburton is a much better shooter and has a better asst:to, though LaMelo gets to the line at a much better clip and is a better rebounder. I like both of these guys, I think they're really similar players but I think Halliburton actually has a better chance to be the better player. 

I'll take Immanual Quickly (Knicks) next. As a rook, I thought he handled himself well as a playmaker and is clearly gonna be a good scorer. (The Knicks movement for all Kentucky/Duke guys is probably not a bad idea for them) 

I'll round out my top five with Patrick Williams (Bulls) is definitely a player--again, though, probably not an all-star, just a reliable down low guy for many years to come. Probably not gonna be the biggest number hanger but he's the kinda guy other guys are gonna wanna play with.  

A few more nice rookies: RJ Hampton (Magic), Alkesej Pokusevski (Thunder), Saddiq Bey (Pistons), Precious Achiuwa (Heat). And I'm not out on James Wiseman (Warriors), I think he can still be a really good player but it might not be for Golden State (if he'd had Klay Thompson....oh, we could've gotten a real look at him). Not a bust, clearly has talent on both ends, but he's young, a bit of a project, I think he's still got a ton of upside and Steve Kerr will hopefully be the guy to get it. 

Not sure about: Cole Anthony (Magic), Malachi Flynn (Raptors), Tyrese Maxey (Sixers), Devin Vassell (Spurs), Dani Avdija (Wizards), Desmond Bane (Grizzlies).  They all had moments of looking good but then again...not. Hard to tell which is these guys will bloom, which won't, or which will need a change of scenery. Although I can proscribe a change of scenery for one player already: Obi Toppin (Knicks). I thought he looked kinda nice and there's definitely potential there, but it ain't gonna be with NYK (unless they move on from Julius Randle--which can totally happen, btw, don't underestimate the Knicks' ability to outsmart themselves). (***)

Two from my blind spot: the Cavs are in my blackout zone and I didn't watch much Rockets this year, so Isaac Okoro (Cavs) and Jae'San Tate (Rockets), nice to meet you. Nice stats, Okoro in particular really looks like a promising member of the Cavs core (moving on from Kevin Love has got to be their priority for the summer) and, well, the Rockets will likely suck at everything for the next coupla years, so Tate will probably neither add nor subtract from that going forward (which makes valuing his on-court play virtually impossible); is Tate built to dominate a crappy team or is he legit good and stuck in a soul-sucking situation? I dunno, could go either way. 

And there's a batch I'm little more muted on: Theo Maledon (Grizzlies), Payton Pritchard (Celtics), Jaden McDaniels (Wolves), Chuma Okeke (Magic), Facundo Campazzo (Nuggets), Isiah Stewart (Pistons), Killian Hayes (Pistons), Aaron Nesmith (Celtics). I can see them all becoming reliable rotation guys but I predict zero all-star appearances from this batch. 

(*) Yeah back in the day I took Joel Embiid over Malcolm Brogdon....and I really like Brogdon! But I got no regrets, Embiid looked to be the better player at the time and he has become the better player in the years since. That's what I'm talking about: these rookie stats have come and gone and made no difference to anyone, this award is about tomorrow not yesterday. 

(**) I still blame Thibs. Flip Saunders (RIP) was building something and Thibs turned it into nothing.

(***) Displacement is what brought Randle to NYK (Lebron pushed him out LA and Zion pushed him out of New Orleans) seems only fitting that he's gonna push Toppin out to find his space. 

NBA Rookie of the Year

Karl-Anthony Towns. (*whew* That was easy) It was a strong year for rookies but KAT was easily--EASILY--the best of the bunch. Just to run it down: Towns led all rookies in G, MP, FG, FGA, FT, FTA, Rebounds (had more defensive rebounds than anyone else had total rebounds), Blocks, Points, top ten in Assists and Steals and the first rookie to average a double-double since Blake Griffin in 2010. Dude has to be unanimous ROY, I just can't see a case for anyone else.

Who's next? I'll lump the rest in tiers. Next tier: Winslow (Heat), Porzingis (Knicks), Booker (Suns), Jokic (Nuggets), Okafor (Sixers), Mudiay (Nuggets)

Going into last year's draft I thought Justice Winslow (Heat) was the one with the highest upside (man, it was crazy that he fell to #10!). I'm not ready to say I was wrong. He still has a lot of room to get better but he comfortably carved out a space in the rotation of an intriguing playoff team and that's pretty awesome for a rookie (a Pat Riley rookie, no less). He's at that point where he's not great at anything but he's good at most everything and I think he may have highest upside (of the non-Towns rookies, of course) going forward: as a DWade apprentice he could become a lethal, efficient scorer and a high level wing defender. Towns is the man but Winslow could still go down as the next best in this draft.

Kristaps Porzingis (Knicks) definitely showed flashes of being a load inside and out on both ends of the court. But he also hit the rookie wall, faded badly by the end of the year and is firmly mired on a team that stinks. But we clearly saw that he can score and defend just fine in this league and that his body, the one real worry about his game, seems plenty strong enough to survive season after season of high level abuse. Knicks fans finally have something to look forward to and that's maybe his most impressive accomplishment of all.

Devin Booker's (Suns) year looks better than his numbers: statistically he's good but the confidence he showed while dragging around a moribund Suns team on his back was really amazing. The Suns were a dumpster fire all year long: the front office has made many horrible moves over the last coupla years and it just got compounded this year. Coach Hornacek got run, Markieff was sent packing and the rotation never coalesced. After Knight and Bledsoe both got hurt, the team was turned over to Booker and he showed he was up to it. He's going to be a helluva scorer in the NBA. (Unfortunately, this surely only means more turmoil from the Suns front office: Bledsoe or Knight or both will get traded this summer, I guarantee)

Nikola Jokic (Nuggets), too, showed more than his numbers would indicate: he was in there at the end of games--indeed, he was the level-headed cool customer that a coach could rely on out there, which is amazing to see in a 20 year old rookie. Again, the numbers are fine but his solid instincts and the poise under fire were all you wanna see in a rookie.

Jahlil Okafor (Sixers) lost more games in his first two weeks in the League than he had probably lost in all of high school and college put together, that's gotta be tough on a young competitor. His team stunk and offered very little of a positive environment. Over the course of the year he fell out of favor of most commentators but I thought he still showed out well enough to be in the discussion for 2nd place. Going forward this is his team (I think Nerlens gets traded this summer) and how Embiid, Saric and (Simmons?) get integrated into the team will be based on Okafor's needs. He's the lead dog and he needs to be that from now on. That's a lot for a rookie to have to deal with and while he could've handled it all better, I thought he did well enough.

Emmanual Mudiay (Nuggets) got lost in the shuffle, too. The Nuggets weren't so good this year but, frankly, they were way better than I thought they'd be. With a rookie PG, a new coach and no real stars to build on, I figured they were fresh meat in the West. But they outpaced the Kings (Cousins, Gay, Rondo, Hall of Fame coach, desperate front office) and did a lot better than simply guttering out for another lottery pick. Mudiay deserves a lot of the credit for that. He was shaky at times, still has a lot to learn and he's not much of a shooter, but he displayed a great deal of technique and a winning attitude. I think the Nuggets have two great pieces to build around with Mudiay and Jokic.

Next tier: D'angelo Russell (Lakers), Myles Turner (Pacers), Trey Lyles (Jazz), Willie Cauley-Stein (Kings), Stanley Johnson (Pistons), Frank Kaminsky (Hornets), Larry Nance Jr (Lakers), Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (Nets)

I wasn't as impressed with Russell as I felt like I should've been, he'll be fine but I can't help thinking the Lakers could've done better with that pick. Turner settled in nicely with the Pacers, I reckon he'll be there for a while. Lyles wasn't asked to do much in Utah but I think he's another perfect piece in their puzzle going forward. Cauley-Stein started slow but by the end of the year I think people really started to understand his game: havoc-wreaking athleticism in a giant body. I wonder about the upside going forward of Johnson but he handled himself well in a playoff rotation. Kaminsky isn't quite the McRoberts replacement Jordan has been dreaming of but he might get close. Nance has a spunky, nimble game that I did not expect (especially since he came out of nowhere on draft night). I may be jumping the gun on Hollis-Jefferson (long stretch of injuries on an abysmal team) but I think as on-ball defender he's gonna be really good.

Wild cards: Bobby Portis (Bulls), Mario Hezonja (Magic), Cameron Payne (Thunder), Boban Marjanovic (Spurs), Nemanja Bjelica (Wolves), TJ McConnell (Sixers)

The Bulls did a poor job incorporating Portis so its hard to tell how good he's gonna be but I liked him coming out of college and I still do. Hezonja probably won't fight for time as much next year, so we'll get a better look at him then. Payne's rookie year was always gonna revolve around the health of Russell Westbrook, who was pretty healthy this year; just a hunch but I think he's gonna be good. Boban is older, wiser and solid at what he does, has Spur written all over him. Personally, I love Bjelica's game and found it maddening he didn't get more playing time in Minnesota, not sure about his future but I think he can be really good. Gotta give a shout to McConnell: he actually had a really solid year on a dysfunctional team and I think he can be a long time PG in this league.

There were others, too: Raul Neto (Jazz), Jerian Grant (Knicks), Justin Anderson (Mavs), Jonathon Simmons (Spurs), Rashad Vaughn (Bucks), Richaun Holmes (Sixers) all had their moments, as well.

NBA Rookie of the Year Update

60 players have debuted this year in the NBA. That number got to 51 within the first 2 weeks of the season then slowly trickled up to 60. There were 82 debuts last year so we can expect about 20-25 more debuts for the rest of the year, so certainly we've seen the cream of the crop although a handful of useful NBA players might still appear. So who's the best? I start with Minutes Per Game as an indicator of the team's faith in their player. Right now there are 20 guys playing more the 15MPG, let's start with those dudes.

Top 20 MPG: Okafor (30.7), Mudiay (29.3), Towns (29.1), Porzingis (28.2), Russell (27.1), Winslow (26.4), Johnson (22.3), Hollis-Jefferson (22.1), McConnell (21.4), Kaminsky (21.0), Nance Jr (20.5), Booker (19.4), Neto (19.1), Jokic (18.8), Bjelica (18.7), Lyles (18.2), Anthony Brown (17.7), Cauley-Stein (17.7), Grant (15.9), Turner (15.5)

Clearly, Okafor, Towns and Porzingis are the top 3 candidates with Mudiay as a pretty solid #4 (although due to injuries, he's quite a bit behind in games played). Porzingis has New York love (a powerful and loud thing). The eye test suggests that Towns is already a complete presence on the floor. Okafor is a helluva scorer, needs to round out his game (and clean up his off-court persona). Mudiay needs to avoid injuries but otherwise looks like he's gonna be a solid player on an overachieving squad; I'd say right now he's a distant 4th place but there's a lot of season left for him to shine out.

Just to show how head and shoulders the top 4 guys are, here's a coupla more stats:

5 rookies scoring double digit PPG: Okafor (17.5), Towns (15.6), Porzingis (14.0), Russell (11.9), Mudiay (10.7). 7 rookies above 5 RPG: Towns (9.5), Porzingis (8.0), Okafor (7.4), Hollis-Jefferson (6.1), Jokic (5.4), Nance Jr (5.0), Cauley-Stein (5.0). And only 3 rookies have 100 FTA: Okafor (68%), Porzingis (86%), Towns (86%).

Russell, Winslow and Johnson are having fine rookie campaigns and suggest that they're going to continue to get better in the future (which I think should be a part of ROY consideration).

Hollis-Jefferson looks like a solid role player but he's been out for a while and I think won't return for several more weeks; even still, he's a bright spot for the Nets.

McConnell...uh....nice kid....plays hard....should make a nice backup PG some day....but I gotta say his minutes are exemplary of the Sixers' desire to lose more than anything.

Kaminksy and Nance Jr are nice players on thin rosters, they deserve their minutes and both seem crafty enough to last in this league but neither are clearly stars to my eye.

Booker is just starting to get more minutes and taking advantage of them; he's a natural born scorer and with Bledsoe out, there's plenty of room for him to release his inner chucker.

Neto, Jokic, Bjelica and Lyles are getting minutes on teams that are used to giving minutes to new guys; I haven't seen much of Neto actually but Jokic looks like a really solid player, Bjelica is one of my personal faves of this bunch and I think Lyles is gonna be really good in 2-3 years.

Uh, I don't know much who Anthony Brown is, he's only played 18 games and has shuttled back and forth to the D League. I assume his advanced minutes are peculiar to nights when the Laker bench was extra thin. Sometimes these statistical analyses catch these flies in the ointment. No offense to Mr. Brown, I wish him well but I suspect he's not really a top 20 candidate for ROY.

Cauley-Stein is a great athlete on a team that needs way more than what he can provide; hopefully some day he'll get to the right team and be the all-out berserker he was born to be.

Grant was one of my favorite PGs in the NCAA last year, not at all surprised to see him getting solid minutes with NYK.

Turner is another one that's still getting used to his minutes, shows promise, looks solid but hasn't done much yet.

Others worth noting: Portis, Hezonja, Oubre look pretty solid so far; Payne and Harrell are just now starting get some run; and Marjanovic certainly has his admirers. I don't think any of those six guys really has a shot at ROY unless they really really (really!) take off in the last half of the season but they look like ballers that will be around for a while.

Right now I'd take Towns over Porzingis with Mudiay and Okafor as #3 and #4. But there's still plenty of season left and at this point (hate to be that guy) but injuries can still derail this race. Others that could still steal some serious votes if they start getting more minutes: Winslow, Russell, Booker, Jokic and Portis.

2014-15 NBA Rookie of the Year

21 rookies played 1000 minutes this year.  Here they are by age.

19: Wiggins (2k+) (Wolves), LaVine (Wolves), Exum (Jazz)
20: Payton (2k+) (Magic), Noel (2k+) (Sixers), Smart (Celtics), Grant (Sixers), Nurkic (Nuggets)
21: McDaniels (Sixers/Rockets), Sampson (Sixers), Stauskus (Kings)
22: Clarkson (Lakers), Hood (Jazz)
23: Mirotic (Bulls), Galloway (Knicks), Black (Rockets/Lakers), Napier (Heat)
24: Ennis (Heat)
25: Bogdanovic (Nets)
27: Ingles (Jazz)
28: Rudez (Pacers)

I'm a stickler for usage (Minutes Played, Minutes Per, Games Played).  Your three top candidates for Rookie of the Year (Wiggins, Noel, Payton) played the most minutes, I think that is no coincidence. For the MVP Award or 6th Man or even Coach, I think it is important to prize usage above all, efficiency next: we must respect the work performed and respect the surplus value of stars and players, to go beyond to the numbers to reward the intangibles of hard work.  Those awards are backward, not forward, looking.

But for Rookie of the Year I don't think it matters so much to compare the years they just had.  The other awards are about rigorously comparing the accumulated awesomeness of the past season to see who was the best.  But ROY should be about looking to the future, this is an award of future projection not past performance.

A pro pos: Andrew Wiggins clearly and easily had the finest year of any of this rookie class, there were other fine players but no rookie can honestly say they had as productive a year as Wiggins.  That said, Wiggins wasn't an all-star this year.  The Wolves were fun to watch but they're still looking to add another #1 pick to their roster.  They didn't win many games or come close to winning many games.  Wiggins, as good as he was, did little to move the needle for the Wolves team on the court.  Nor did he dominate all-star voting or receive any DPOY or MVP votes.  He had a fine season but for the purposes of ROY, it is more important to note that he had a promising season.  That is the ROY, no?  The most promising going forward, the top prospect of this class.  I anticipate Wiggins will win the award (probably by a ton) and I think that's a reasonable choice.

But in the world of promising, I can say I saw enough of Jabari Parker in 25 games to think that he could be (and I think will be) a better player than Wiggins.  I reckon Parker will get some 3rd place votes, I wouldn't be shocked or appalled to see him get 1st place votes, I think he earned a few even in a diminished season.  Wiggins had the better year, he played 50 more games than Parker and that's awesome, but the ROY isn't about productivity so far, it's about promise going forward.  I think Parker is every bit as promising going forward.

I suspect Julius Randle will hit the ground running next year and have a fine, perhaps even Wiggins-like, campaign.  (Damn, Julius had his rookie season just handed to him...no Nash, no Kobe, no Pau, no one else to shoot the ball, take over games and NO EXPECTATIONS at all.  He could've sucked and still been a hero.  Damn shame to see a young athlete in his prime spending time off the (court) especially when it was all laid out for him to just play basketball)  But he won't get to call himself a rookie next year (14 minutes played in 2014-15), so Randle is of this class.  Can we say that he is promising?  Yeah but 14 minutes isn't enough to really be certain.  Whereas I saw plenty of Jabari's minutes (probably watched damn near all of them, Bucks were my favorite League Pass before New Year's) to think he can play in this league and contribute to a good team.

Should Randle get votes?  I say no.  We saw none of Embiid (he'll be a ROY candidate next year) and while we may say he is promising, I have now seen Embiid's competition while seeing no more of Embiid.  I saw enough Parker to know that kid can play.  Randle, on the other hand, is basically no different in prospect-ness than Embiid: I still see him in his college uni, he is not yet a pro to me.

All that said...I can't take Parker as ROY.  I've got to go with Wiggins.  Not necessarily the all round best of this class at every phase of the game but in the discussion in all phases of the game.  My only knock on his numbers: his asst:to is actually pretty terrible.  You don't need big asst numbers from him but you're expecting the offense to run through him at all times, he's gonna get a lot of touches, he needs to become more sure with the ball.  His shooting will improve, his rebounding and defense will improve, his ball handling, his decision-making needs to improve; physically he showed he's got all the tools, its as sharp and lucky as he can make himself that will determine his relative awesomeness.

I will take Parker 2nd.  For all the reasons I kept hinting at above: he's got promise.  He can handle himself in the lane, he can score, he can rebound, good shot blocker, good on-ball defender, he's got size and speed and uniqueness to his game.  He didn't play as many minutes or have as productive a season as Wiggins or Payton or Noel but going forward, I am more comfortable saying that Parker will be a great player than I would be about, say, Payton or Noel.  I think all three will be fine players but Parker looks to have the highest ceiling.

I'll take Payton 3rd and Noel 4th.  My pre-season pick was that Payton and Noel would split the award (I couldn't choose, I assumed the world wouldn't be able to either).  My rationale was the same for both: they'd get plenty of playing time and they'd be able to play their own games, they wouldn't have to fit into some crazy scheme on the court (or some uncomfortable media narrative off the court).  I thought Payton and Noel would both be able to flourish by just playing basketball.  I was kinda right.  They both had fine rookie seasons in the roles I imagined for them.  They were productive and promising.  That said, I think Payton is a Rondo-style PG in an increasingly non-Rondo-friendly uiniverse, I hope he can pick up his FG%, 3p%, FT% and become a dangerous scorer in addition to his ball-movement skills.  We'll see if he can add dimensions to his game.  I thought Noel could be a DPOY-type player and I think we saw some of that this year.  He's a natural born shotblocker, an eraser in front of the rim, and a top notch rebounder, I questioned how much he would score and we can perhaps hope that he'll pick up his FT% and become a little more confident around the rim.  He's got the body, he had a fine rookie year, I think his defensive skills will make him a feared player (and coveted free agent) though I'm confident Wiggins and Jabari will be better scorers.

#5-#7: Smart (needs to improve his efficiency but so energetic, lightning rod, a hustler, teams need guys like that), LaVine (sloppy but that kid can play, highlight reel athletic, good ball handler, good passer, nice defender), Mirotic (not great at anything but pretty good at everything, confident shooter, variable on both ends of the court, teams needs guys like that).

#8: I'll take Randle.  In some sense what ROY is who's gonna have the best 2nd season?  Which guy shone out enough this year to make us think he's gonna be awesome next year?  Randle will always be compared to these guys and I think he'll have a Wiggins-like season next year for the Lakers (certain about one thing: the Lakers will be a vastly different team next year, not sure they'll be good but they'll be different), which would be pretty good.  I liked a lot of rookies but I think Randle's upside could still be pretty good.

After that I just had vague categories to put guys in.

Pretty sure they can play (not necessarily stars but they look to be good contributors, regular rotation guys who maybe could still blow up): Exum (Jazz), Clarkson (Lakers), Bogdanovic (Nets), McDaniels (Rockets), Galloway (Knicks), McGary (Thunder), Nurkic (Nuggets), Jerami Grant (Sixers), Napier (Heat),  Hood (Jazz), Aaron Gordon (Magic), Stauskus (Kings), Ennis (Heat), Ingles (Jazz), Rudez (Pacers), Tyler Johnson (Heat), Capela (Rockets), Payne (Wolves)

Maybe they can play, I dunno (some of these guys will catch on, some won't): Dinwiddie (Pistons), Lauvargne (Nuggets), Gary Harris (Nuggets), Young (Celtics), Wear (Knicks), Hairston (Hornets), Warren (Suns), Vonleh (Hornets), Brown (Nets), Millsap (Jazz), Aldemir (Sixers), McDermott (Bulls), Sampson (Sixers), Papanikolau (Rockets), Joe Harris (Cavs)

I have no idea (a lot of these guys will be out of the league 1 year from now, some of them will keep getting dem checks, some may even become fo-real-ass regular pro ballers...couldn't tell you which ones): Jefferson (Nets), Early (Knicks), Bairstow (Bulls), Adams (Grizzlies), Kirk (Cavs), Smith (Pelicans), Johnson (Rockets), Dawkins (Heat), Marble (Magic), Anderson (Spurs), Cherry (Cavs), Green (Nuggets), Gordon (Sixers), Whittington (Pacers), Robinson (Wolves), Stokes (Grizzlies), Zoran Dragic (Heat), Powell (Celtics), Moreland (Kings), Lucas (Grizzlies), Jerrett (Thunder), Wilcox (Clippers), O'Bryant (Bucks), Christopher (Jazz), McAdoo (Warriors), Green (Spurs), Drew (Sixers), Benimon (Jazz), Cooley (Jazz), Stockton (Kings), Cotton (Jazz), Frazier (Sixers), Bhullar (Kings), McNeal (Suns), David Wear (Kings), Kilpatrick (Wolves), Brown (Lakers)

ROY Update

Up to 65 debuts after welcoming Patrick Christopher (Jazz) and Adrein Payne (Hawks).

Julius Randle (14.0) is 23rd in MPG.  Ahead of him: Wiggins (31.8), Noel (30.1), Parker (29.5), Payton (25.8), McDaniels (25.3), LaVine (25.1), Papanickolau (23.6), Bogdanovic (22.8), Napier (21.0), Smart (19.7), Exum (18.4), Mirotic (18.4), Hood (18.2), Ingles (16.7), Black (15.7), Rudez (15.4), Hairston (15.2), Gordon (15.0), Grant (14.9), Anderson (14.3), Ennis (14.1), Harris (14.0)

Bogdanovic has fallen off considerably in the last 3 weeks.  LaVine is still hanging.  Expect Smart's minutes to creep up.  Tarik Black moves from the Rockets to the Lakers and his numbers don't fall at all.  Good to see Gordon back up there, the Magic have a lot of guys that want minutes, not sure if he'll get up to 20 MPG.  Grant, Anderson, Ennis and Harris are getting legit minutes.

Wiggins still the top candidate for ROY with Noel and Payton really the ones likely to get enough minutes to make a difference.  Expect Parker to get votes, he may well end up looking like the best rookie.  McDaniels, Mirotic, LaVine, Bogdanovic and Papanickolau should all get some love from the voters.  That said, this really is a deep class, a lot of good young players that will play for a decade or more.

ROY Update

The big news since my last entry is that Jabari Parker (Bucks) has blown out his knee and is done for the year.  I think I speak for all true basketball fans when I say: damn.  That kid was good and he was contributing right away to a team that was on the rise.  Terrible loss for the Bucks, they were seriously eye-balling a playoff spot in the East, that's gonna be tougher to pull off without Parker's minutes.  No Joel Embiid, no Julius Randle, Aaron Gordon hasn't played in over a month, and now no more Jabari Parker.  Sucks.

Also this is where Minutes Per Game becomes a tricky stat.  I'd been using Julius Randle (14.0) as my benchmark.  Perhaps I'll move on to pure Minutes Played to gauge which rookies are maintaining their impact.

The amount of rookies that have debuted this year is up to 63, adding Furkan Aldemir (Sixers) and Johnny O'Bryant (Bucks) getting some of Parker's minutes.

Top 22 in minutes played: Wiggins (Wolves), Payton (Magic), Parker (Bucks), Noel (Sixers), Bogdanovic (Nets), McDaniels (Sixers), LaVine (Wolves), Papanickolau (Rockets), Napier (Heat), Exum (Jazz), Mirotic (Bulls), Ingles (Jazz), Rudez (Pacers), Black (Rockets), Stauskas (Kings), Ennis (Heat), Hood (Jazz), Anderson (Spurs), Hairston (Hornets), Wear (Knicks), Harris (Cavs), Smart (Celtics).  (#23 Doug McDermott (Bulls) is out with an injury, that seems a good place to stop)

I reckon (barring injury) Wiggins, Payton and Noel will finish top 3 in Minutes Played and should all be top 5 in MPG.  (Parker's 29.5 MPG will surely finish in the top 5)  ROY looks to be Wiggins' to lose now.  Payton is exciting to watch but turns the ball over and hasn't shown a propensity to get W's and Noel is a good defender but will probably be a project offensively for a while.  Wiggins, on the other hand, knows who he is and his rookie year will be Wiggins getting his reps and coming back stronger.  With all the depth of this draft, its hard not to see Wiggins and Parker as the two most exciting players going forward.  I'd like to see Wiggins getting more than 1.3 assists per game, his 1-2 asst to turnover rate is not good though the rest of his numbers and the eye test on his defense are promising.

LaVine is climbing fast in his Minutes and his MPG.  The Wolves are loving their new rookie PG, how will he fit in when Rubio comes back?  Does this make Rubio expendable?  Does anyone want Rubio?  (Now that the Mavs have Rondo, probably not)

Smart missed some time with injuries, I suspect he'll be in the top ten of Minutes and MPG by the end of the year.  Without Rondo, there's nothing keeping Smart from getting plenty of minutes.  And if/when Aaron Gordon starts playing again, he'll go back to getting good minutes in the Magic rotation.

I expect Mirotic to keep getting good minutes because he is pretty good at everything, the kind of all-round player the Bulls live on.

Otherwise, it seems like all these guys are on an established glide path for production.

ROY Update

59 rookies have debuted in the NBA this year.  Julius Randle (14.0) is still 20th in Rookie MPG, who are the 19 ahead of him (sorry, Stauskas, your time is dwindling)?

Bogdanovic (30.5), Nerlens (30.5), Jabari (29.6), Wiggins (28.6), Papanikolau (25.5), McDaniels (24.4), Payton (23.9), Napier (23.0), LaVine (20.7), Smart (20.4), Exum (18.1), Ingles (17.8), Rudez (17.4), Mirotic (17.0), Black (17.0), Hairston (16.1), Harris (15.2), Gordon (15.0), Hood (14.5)

Bogdanovic is still playing well for an awful team.  His shooting is okay but his asst-to is a little troubling for the amount of time he's playing.  I expect he'll stay high on this list throughout the season.

Nerlens is coming along, even if the Sixers aren't.  The production is enough to suggest that he is worth the investment the Sixers have made so far.  (Terrible FT shooter, wouldn't have thought so)

Jabari is on an up-and-coming team unlike Nerlens and Bogdanovic, that has to feel so good for a rookie.  Jabari's contributions actually mean something and he's already clearly a legit player in this league.  The consensus pick for ROY (though not my pick), so far I'd say it is his to lose.

Wiggins is getting time and developing nicely.  Hasn't started setting the world on fire (too many turnovers, so-so FG%, terrible FT%) but his got the body and over time the game will come to him.  Not a ROY, I think, unless he takes a major step forward by the end of the year (and perhaps that will happen once Rubio comes back).

Papanickolau still plugging along.  Decent 3-shooter, decent rebounder, good assist numbers, his minutes are firmly his, I expect he'll stay in the Rocket rotation throughout the year.

McDaniels hot start has leveled off some: his FG% coming back down to earth, too many turnovers, though still a surprisingly good shot blocker.  Could be the bedrock of the Sixer bench for years to come or maybe he's just overacheived on a team with little expectation of achieving, we'll see.

Elfrid Payton is still looking good to me.  The numbers aren't astounding (why are all these kids such terrible FT shooters?!?) but his poise on the court is undeniable, he looks like an NBA player.  As the Magic rotation settles in, I expect he'll be a meaningful part of that team all year long--and a Magic push for the playoffs does not seem like such a long shot in the East.

Napier, like Payton, looks like he belongs.  Still too many turnovers but his conservative play is just right for a veteran Heat team.  He's a part of that team already (and I suspect will outlast Chalmers and Cole on that roster).

LaVine is an up-and-down player.  Did you see him against the Lake Show last week?  Dude was balling that night; but other nights he disappears without much flourish.  LaVine is still figuring out his place in the Wolves rotation and I suspect he is more of a highlight reel guy than a work pail kinda rookie.  That's not to say he won't be a fine player in this league, just that his accomplishments will be of a more ethereal nature than stuffing a stat sheet.

Exum and Ingles are both getting good minutes in the Jazz rotation.  Neither are exactly tearing up gthe league but neither is playing poorly.  The Jazz probably have a trade or two in them so we'll see what the roster looks like by the end of the season.  Exum is clearly the long term guy but maybe Ingles will be the short team guy.

I'm a little puzzled by Rudez.  His minutes have actually gone down when I thought they'd go up.  But then again the Pacers are better than they ought to be so maybe Rudez's contribution will have to come in smaller doses.  (Gotta admit, I haven't watched the Pacers yet this year, haven't seen Rudez actually suit up)

Though Mirotic is currently sitting at 14th on this list, I expect that his minutes will increase.  I think Mirotic has the versatility to plug in for any number of injuries (and you know the Bulls are gonna have plenty of them), so any extra minutes out there are gonna go to him.  Good player, man, all around he's got a little bit of everything in his game, probably as all-around good as anyone in this rookie crop.

Tarik Black is Dwight Howard's backup.  His minutes are probably gonna stay around this level for the entire year regardless of his production.  He's not there for the output, he's there because he has long legs and Dwight can't play 48 minutes a night.

Hairston is suddenly getting minutes on the dysfunctional Hornets, a team way way way worse than I would've thought (and I wasn't that high on them to begin with).  The real problem for the Hornets is there are no problems!  This is the team they have and unless they start making crazy trades or figure out some new way to do things, they're not getting any better.  Where does Hairston fit in?  No telling but as long as there is chaos I reckon he'll keep getting thrown out there.

Hood isn't turning the ball over or committing egregious fouls but he's not knocking down shots either.  With the sudden appearance of Ingles, Hood is even further down the depth chart than I anticipated, not writing him off but clearly it'll take a little longer for Hood to get his reps on the court.  (And, again, the Jazz have moves to make and he could end up on a different squad by year's end)

Smart, Harris and Gordon have not (if I'm not mistaken) played since the last time I updated this.  Marcus Smart still has plenty of time to develop and Aaron Gordon had already firmly planted himself in the Magic rotation before his injury.  Not sure what's up with Gary Harris (or the Denver Nuggets, for that matter).

My original ROY pick was a tie between Payton and Nerlens and I'd say they're both still in the top five.  I would add Jabari to that mix, Bogdanovic and Wiggins will have admirers come voting time, don't forget about Marcus Smart, and keep an eye on Mirotic, I think his opportunities are the most variable of anyone out there.

Also, James Ennis (Heat), Doug McDermott (Bulls), Joe Harris (Cavs) and Nik Stauskas (Kings) play pretty regular minutes and it feels like TJ Warren (Suns) might blow up outta nowhere at any time.

NBA ROY Update

52 rookies have debuted in the NBA this year.  Right now Julius Randle is still tied for 19th in MPG for rookies, so who are the 19 ahead of him?

Bogdanovich (30.5), Jabari (28.6), Nerlens (27.4), Wiggins (26.9), Payton (24.8), Papanickolau (23.4), McDaniels (23.1), Napier (20.6), LaVine (20.5), Smart (20.4), Rudez (19.9), Exum (18.7), Ingles (16.3), Stauskus (15.6), Anderson (15.4), Hood (15.2), Gordon (15.0), Harris (14.5), Black (14.0)

Bogdanovich is for real, he's a little older, shooting 47% from the floor, not exactly re-inventing basketball but he's holding his own there....and the Nets are a trainwreck.  I fully expect Bogdanovich to keep playing healthy minutes and being a worthy contributor.

Jabari is a heck of a player, confident out there, looks good on offense, struggles a bit still on D, but with Giannis and Sanders out there with him, his D can be masked.  His minutes will probably increase as the year wears on and he gets used to NBA grind.  All of these rookies (the Americans, anyway) will hit the rookie wall some time between January and March.  Parker is getting a lot of minutes, how will he respond to the wall?

Nerlens is gonna get as many minutes as he can stand.  He's gonna be a great shot blocker, not sure yet that he'll be great at anything else (and with the endless stream of undrafted rookie teammates, pretty sure Philly won't be great at anything this year).  I picked Nerlens to be a ROY co-winner because I thought he would be a bright spot in a horrible Philly season, could still happen but that season is looking even more horrible than I imagined and Nerlens might find himself swamped out there.

Wiggins will probably increase his minutes by the end of the year.  The Wolves are a team in flux and Wiggins is the rudder, all the upcoming roster moves (and there will be more) revolve around him.  Again, rookie wall, how does Wiggins respond?  I don't think Wiggins wins ROY but I do think he gets minutes and plays well, but not enough wins or highlights to get votes.

Payton played well while Oladipo was injured, now we'll see how he transitions to coming off the bench, which will probably be his normal role this year.  I picked Payton as a co-winner of the ROY and I think I'm sticking with him for now.  He's played well, his asst-turnover ratio is really good for this point in his burgeoning career, I think he'll have enough highlights, positive moments and the Magic are a fun team to watch.  I'm sticking with Payton as ROY.

Papanickolau is the big surprise to me, didn't see this guy coming.  But he's pretty good out there, handles himself well, not lighting it up but not overwhelmed either.  With the Rockets strange rotation, I reckon he keeps getting minutes and opportunities.

McDaniels hit the ground running, showing some high flying skills and a fearless attitude early in Philly.  But, like Nerlens, I think his team will be so desperately bad that I think he gets worn down by the end of the year.  Even if he maintains his minutes and performance, I just think all that losing will be really draining and he has very little chance of getting a lot of ROY votes.

Napier looks like he belongs on the Heat already, he is steady with the ball and that's exactly what a veteran squad wants to see. I think Napier keeps getting good minutes, I think he plays well and while I don't see him making a run at ROY, I think he'll be a respected player in this league for the foreseeable future.

LaVine is a surprise to me in how many minutes he's averaging considering how long it took him to get on the floor.  He's asst-turnover is pretty fantastic for his limited minutes and I reckon he'll keep getting run in that rotation.  Again, the Wolves have a lot of pieces to move and I don't think LaVine will be one of them, but you never know, he could be in a different jersey by year's end.

Smart has been hurt, so his numbers have frozen lately.  He hustles like a champ and definitely has an NBA body, not quite sure yet about his game but then again not sure about anything the Celtics are doing, still plenty of time for him to blossom.

Rudez should probably get even more minutes in the depleted Pacer rotation.  He's a little older, a veteran, should make the most of his playing time on a bad team.  Doesn't seem like a candidate for ROY because hard to imagine he'll contribute enough to make the Pacers viable, but he'll play and get respect.

Exum will probably be getting more minutes by the end of the year.  It feels to me like Trey Burke is the odd man out in Utah (or maybe Kanter) and that would mean more time for Exum.  He's playing well in limited time, I expect he'll get better.

Joe Ingles is a bit of a fly in the buttermilk for the Jazz: he's playing more minutes and giving more production than I think anyone ever expected he would, thus he is clogging the guard rotation even more than it already was for the Jazz.  I keep waiting for Ingles to drop off but so far so good for the veteran Aussie PG.

Stauskus has yet to impress me but he is still getting playing time.  While everyone is suddenly on the Kings bandwagon, I am not.  I think they're playing the best basketball they're gonna play all year and I wonder whether that means more time and opportunity for Stauskus or less. Not sure where he goes for the rest of the year.

Kyle Anderson will get minutes in the Spurs rotation because everyone gets minutes in the Spurs rotation.  And he'll be good in the Spurs rotation because everyone is good in the Spurs rotation.  Frankly he won't have enough opportunity to win ROY but he should keep getting minutes.

Rodney Hood, along with Exum and Ingles, is another rook fighting for time in that Jazz rotation. He's currently shooting 26% from 3 and I can't help be feel like Hood is another odd man out in Utah.

Aaron Gordon just got hurt for the Magic, out at least a few weeks.  Too bad, he was having fun out there and really just starting to get his feet wet.  Oh well, perhaps being in and out of the lineup will help him sneak past the rookie wall.

Joe Harris....I don't know who that is.  Plays for Cleveland?

Tarik Black is getting Dwight Howard's backup minutes in Houston.  Nice work if you can get it.

PJ Hairston (Hornets), Gary Harris (Nuggets), James Ennis (Heat) and the McDermott/Mirotic platoon look to keep getting minutes and opportunities too.

Still haven't seen Adrien Payne (Hawks) or Mitch McGary (Thunder). They fighting injury concerns or what?  I know that Jerami Grant (Sixers) is coming off an ankle injury but I full expect the Sixers to throw him in for yet another debut soon enough.

NBA: Rookie of the Year

The ROY pool seems to be about 50 guys:

23 rookies have already debuted (*): (2011 draft) Nikola Mirotic, Bojan Bogdanovich, (2012) Kostas Papanicklaou, (2013) Nerlens Noel and (2014) Jabari Parker, Marcus Smart, Elfrid Payton, Nik Stauskas, Doug McDermott, Aaron Gordon, Andrew Wiggins, KJ McDaniels, Rodney Hood, Jordan Clarkson, Shabazz Napier, Dante Exum, Jusuf Nurkic, Tyler Ennis, Cory Jefferson, Spencer Dinwiddie, Cleanthony Early, Zach Lavine, Cameron Bairstow.

I came up with 14 more I expect to see this year: Joel Embiid (maybe), Noah Vonleh, TJ Warren, Adrein Payne, James Young, Gary Harris, Mitch McGary, Jordan Adams, PJ Hairston, Kyle Anderson, Jarnell Stokes, Johnny O'Bryant, Jerami Grant, Nick Johnson.

Throw in 12 more off my radar, maybe a foreign draftee appears on American shores, maybe an undrafted free agent breaks through and gets some PT, and we'll round the number of ROY candidates to 50 guys.

I think a good measure of a rookie season is minutes per game (MPG): how much did the team rely on this rookie to contribute?  You'd like to maximize that contribution (points, assists, PER, defensive efficiency, eye test) but if the team still has faith in a guy despite a so-so statistical year (a la Ben McLemore (Kings) last year), I think that carries weight.  MPG as opposed to simple minutes because injuries and chemistry might limit playing time for stretches at a time.

I think the order for rookie MPG will be: Nerlens Noel, Jabari Parker, Elfrid Payton, Andrew Wiggins, Marcus Smart, Aaron Gordon, Bojan Bogdanovich, Jusuf Nurkic, Dante Exum, McDermott/Mirotic.  I'll take Noel and Payton to split ROY.

While those other guys are toiling away trying to find themselves on teams in flux, Noel and Payton have the best chance to be themselves right away.  I think they'll both be pretty good players on crappy teams.  All they have to do is play basketball and get better.

Dark horse possibilities: Bogdanovich and Nurkic will get time, opportunity and low expectations in their lineups too.  Nurkic looks like the closest thing to Marvel comics in the flesh and Bogdanovich might be the bright spot on a dreary Nets team.

Exum is a wild card.  He's got a lot of players ahead of him but he'll get his minutes.  50/50 whether he can make the most of his chances (and ditto the other 7 guys in the Jazz rotation).

Mirotic and McDermott will compete for minutes, focus, opportunities, and votes for ROY though I think they both have the potential to be good at the same time.

Parker will get minutes, he'll get focus, low expectations and Greek Freak's 2nd year maturation, I think he'll be good and exciting but I think the Bucks still don't win so much so while he'll get votes and respect and perhaps lead in MPG, I don't think he ends up having the best year among the rookies.

Wiggins, Smart, Gordon, will get plenty of time and opportunity but each team is a work in progress and so are they. Their upside is high but they could easily get vanished in the shuffle of a lot of players looking for playing time.  I think they each have good years, promising years and potentially great years I suppose, but I don't think they'll be best among rookies.

Of the rest the two that intrigue me most are Cleanthony Early and Nick Johnson.  As a college basketball fan I thought Early was pretty special, the dude just knew what to do with the ball, I think that skill translates to the big leagues.  Johnson could fill the void of Jeremy Lin (a player I think the Rockets will miss more than they realize), a decent spunky PG off the bench that the crowd loves.

The rest are just questions: Will Hood blend in with the rest of the Jazz youth movement?  How will Stauskas work with McLemore?  We gonna see Embiid this year?  Will Napier get enough minutes to be relevant in Miami?  Along with Wiggins, where does Lavine fit in in Minnesota?  Tyler Ennis looks good but how much of him will we get to see this year?  How much run are Vonleah and Hairston gonna get in Charlotte?  With OKC's sudden shocking lack of depth, gotta figure McGary's gonna play, right?

Kostas Papanicklaou, KJ McDaniels, Jordan Clarkson, Cory Jefferson, Spencer Dinwiddie, Cameron Bairstow, TJ Warren, Adrein Payne, James Young, Gary Harris, Jordan Adams, Kyle Anderson, Jarnell Stokes, Johnny O'Bryant, Jerami Grant all seem like regular rotation guys, some of them will get to play this year, not sure which ones yet.


(* 24 actually.  I removed Julius Randle from ROY talk after he broke his leg in his 1st game.  Damn shame, he had his rook year laid on a platter: plenty of opportunities, plenty of 4th quarter mop up time in front of the diehards at Staples, plenty of highlights, no pressure to be awesome, probably only a so-so year but one with promise, damn shame--he doesn't even get to come back next year for ROY like Nerlens, Blake Griffin, David Robinson!; fuckin' sucks really)