Thursday, December 18, 2014

Thoughts on a (former) rumor

The buzz is that Rajon Rondo (along with a large trade exception) is going to the Dallas Mavericks for Jameer Nelson, Brandon Wright, Jae Crowder, a 1st round pick and a 2nd round pick.

First thought: I don't like it for the Mavs.  The Mavs currently have the highest rated offense in the league, how much better does Rondo make that offense?  I say none  He'll take the ball out of Monta Ellis's hands without giving any FT or outside shooting.  Dallas is not a great defensive team, how much better does Rondo make them?  I say none.  I always thought (Kentucky fan here, I've watched his WHOLE career) Rondo was overrated on defense: he gets steals by a combination of over pursuing the backside and slacking on fronting the ball.

Wright is shooting at a phenomenal percentage and is the only big guy off the bench on the team and Nelson is exactly the veteran presence the Mavs needed.  Some of the stats thrown out as Mavs PG needs are illusory: Mavs PG are last or near the bottom in the FG%, points per game and assists per game.  So what?  They get their scoring from the SG (Ellis) and their PF (Dirk) with everyone else just pitching in; Rondo won't help the % or the PPG anyway--and he'll get his assists to the consternation of Ellis.  And his rebounding, which has always been great for a PG, won't replace Brandon Wright's production, so I see NO upside to this move for the Mavs.  The Mavs offense is based on moving the ball around whereas Rondo is a slowdown ball hog.

What does this do for the Celtics?  They save a little money, they throw a coupla more draft picks onto the pile and they have now freed themselves the headache of not resigning Rajon Rondo.  With the addition of Wright, they can now try even harder to trade off Brandon Bass.  The addition of Nelson gives them an affordable steadying force for Marcus Smart.  I assume Jae Crowder will get waived.

Going forward, Dallas now has to find a big man to replace Wright (what's Emeka Okafor's phone number?) and presumably they'll max Rondo this summer.  Considering they'll want to re-sign Tyson Chandler too, I think that's too much money for an aging (overrated) ball hogging PG.

The Mavs are the #1 offense in the league, why the need for the shake up?  Is this truly an improvement?  I say its not, I think the Mavs overpaid for a guy they don't really need and they're going to overpay even more next year.  The Mavs are currently sitting at 7th in the West, I don't see them finishing any higher than 5th with or without Rondo.  Not a good move, Mavs.

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