2020-21 NBA Awards (Coach of the Year)

Okay, I'll admit it: I have no idea what an NBA coach does (*). The kind of work they really do is behind the scenes, the subtle massaging of egos and the ability to properly tear grown men a new one and make it mean something. That doesn't tend to happen on the sideline during the game or at the post-game press conference, so all I see of the coaches is the shit they don't do. Strategizing to put players in their most optimal opportunities to produce is pretty much 100% of it but I don't really know what that looks like and, of course, it's success is largely dependent on the talent that is available. So...yeah....I'm totally guessing. 

Coach of the Year: Quin Snyder (Jazz). 

The Jazz have been coming for a while now and this was their season. Utah is in that weird pocket of the country that no one pays attention to (Mountain Time Zone, what?) and features a true ensemble team that rolls ten deep and gets contributions from all over. Coach Snyder isn't relying on one guy to do it all, nor is it simply a 'team concept' that follows his orders, rather it is a group of autonomous guys, any one of whom might feel like he's the star on any given night. They play loose and they have a lot of personalities and balancing all that to finish #1 in the West is impressive. 

The rest of my top ten: Doc Rivers (Sixers), Mike Malone (Nuggets), Steve Nash (Nets), Tom Thibodeau (Knicks), Tyron Lue (Clippers), Monty Williams (Suns), (and just to make it look like a top ten) Steve Kerr (Warriors), Taylor Jenkins (Grizzlies), Nate McMillan (Hawks)

Rivers working his magic with a Sixers team that has had a slow build to immense expectations was a joy to behold this year. The Sixers could've turtled up and pretended they weren't ready for another year but Rivers kept that from happening. So he's my Eastern Conference COY.

Mike Malone (Nuggets) juggles a lot of players and makes the most them once again. Nash seems like he was handed the best roster in the game but not so fast--there's a lot of weird energy on that team and he was able to keep them in line--even when they didn't show up for long stretches of time. Thibodeau has never been a favorite of mine but I think this year's roster is precisely what he's good at: getting the most out of reclamation projects (the Knicks might just be the perfect place for him). Lue was able to guide the Clippers to a quiet, understated (which is the way to go in Clipperland) 4th place finish, leaving them well-positioned for the post-season. I like Monty Williams as much as the next guy but after digging into the stats, I'd say the Paul-Booker-Ayton trio does most of the heavy lifting, so while I don't want to diss the improvement the Suns made this season, I'm not really sure Williams is the guy to credit for that.  

The also-rans: 

So while I've seen Frank Vogel (Lakers) have impressive teams in the past, this year was mostly treading water and hanging on to the last possible rung in the ladder, which was not so impressive to behold. 

Terry Stotts (Blazers) has had interesting years in the past (and some duds), but this team is so strictly on auto-pilot right now (for better and for worse), that I'm not sure he's even there on a daily basis.

Mike Budenholzer (Bucks) has a history of getting the most out of lesser rosters, but this year's Bucks team faded from the usual spot--despite being better than they've ever been! So while I think that positions them well for the post-season (oh, I'll be coming back to this in a future post!), this regular season seemed strangely anti-climactic for the team that has been coming for a while now. 

I've long been a big fan of Erik Spoelstra (Heat), but somehow the defending eastern champs never looked right to me all season long. Yeah, there were injuries and Covid-19 and all that, but I never felt like this team knew what it was, when frankly it should. The high pressure expectations of the abstraction that is "Heat Culture" sometimes overwhelm a clear identity (when it feels like it should be the opposite, right?). 

I think Brad Stevens (Celtics) is maybe the greatest coach in the biz right now (Calipari is just keeping the sideline at Rupp warm for him), but the Celtics were barely better than the Wizards this year, not even as good as the Warriors, not nearly as good as the Blazers. Why is that? I don't blame Stevens but I think he's done so much with so little for so long that the Celtics brass thinks he can just do that every year and this year proved that isn't so. The higher expectations get, the more talent he will need to command to reach those heights. The Celtics were fine this season but they've been trending up and that trend didn't hold. 

(*) OMG and European soccer coaches...I don't even know why teams have those...

2016-17 Coach of the Year Update

The Grizzlies have fired Dave Joerger. I thought Joerger did a great job this year--maybe the best of his career. The natural deterioration of the team really took its toll as they fought crushing injuries all year long. They had no business making the playoffs but there they were, just like always. And consider: if they could've won a few more games down the stretch they might've matched up with the Clippers, who have since suffered their own crushing injuries. The Grizzlies might still be playing right now! Instead, their performance against the Spurs was one for the ages...of awful. None of that was Joerger's fault but firing the coach is easier than remaking the roster (which still needs to happen anyway).

Can Joerger coach the Kings? Maybe. He might be better taking a year off or getting a top flight assistant gig: those young Timberwolves could use some up close gritting and grinding, the Bucks need a dose of Grizzly in 'em, Scott Brooks might really appreciate his presence in DC and, of course, everyone who's anyone is gonna wanna be on Luke Walton's staff this summer.

As for the Grizzlies, I suspect you can pencil in Frank Vogel as their next coach though he's kind of a backwards choice: Vogel is a hard nosed D kinda coach which fits the Grizz mentality but perhaps they should be moving on from that strategy. Does Vogel perfect their style or does he prevent them from evolving? Whether they hire Vogel or not, the Grizzlies still need a wing scorer (and getting younger wouldn't hurt). But for now, tally the Grizzlies as another team still looking for next year's coach of the year candidate.

2016-17 Coach of the Year update

Luke Walton has agreed to become the Lakers head coach, putting him in the running for the 2016-17 Coach of the Year. This was definitely a great move for the Lakers and it could be a great move for Walton. Back in the day Dr Buss always managed to make the deals happen to bring in the right people: Kareem, Magic, Pat Riley, Worthy, Shaq, Kobe, Phil Jackson, Odom, Pau. The Buss offspring don't seem to have the touch but the Laker brand still has plenty of cache even if the last few years have left the cupboard close to bare. This past season was sacrificed on the altar of Kobe (right now are the Lakers any better than the Sixers?), but the future begins now. With Walton (the Buss Children's first undeniably great move) the Lakers have something like an identity going forward and a young core (Russell, Randle, Clarkson, Nance, the upcoming #2 pick) to build around. There should be a lot of player movement this summer though it feels like the trade market, as opposed to the free agent market, will be stronger than usual and the Lakers don't have much to barter. The Lakers used to be an attractive free agent destination, can they regain that mantle?

Some random speculation on who they might be targeting: Harrison Barnes (Warriors), Demar Derozan (Raptors), Ryan Anderson (Pelicans), OJ Mayo (Bucks), Timofey Mozgov (Cavs), Meyers Leonard (Blazers), Al Jefferson (Hornets). I know, right? Still looks like another lean year for the Lakers, doesn't it? Oh well. If they can get a nice mix of mid-term and long-term deals worked out, they can get back in the playoff mix within 2 years, I'd say.  

NBA Coach of the Year

Randy Wittman (Wizards) and George Karl (Kings) are rumored to be getting fired any minute now, which will likely put a crimp in their arguments for Coach of the Year. With the recent Sixers' front office changes, will Coach Brown be on his way out in Philly? (Personally, I hope not; he's endured so much hardship, it seems rude to run him out now that the upside is in sight) Not sure what the Lakers or Wolves are going to do with their coaches going forward but neither would seem to figure in this year's Coach of the Year Award.

Can a coach that failed to make the playoffs be considered for Coach of the Year? Well, as a general principle I suppose its possible; but this particular year, no.

The playoff coaches:
Lue (Blatt), Casey, Budenholzer, Clifford, Stevens, Spoelstra, Vogel, Van Gundry
Kerr (Walton), Popovich, Donovan, Rivers, Stotts, Carlyle, Joerger, Bickerstaff (McHale), Snyder

Obviously the elephant in the room is Steve Kerr, The Warriors will break the record (I mean, right?) for most wins in the regular season while defending last year's championship. Feels like a no-brainer choice, huh? Well, due to health problems Kerr missed the first two months of the season and the team hummed along without him just fine. This team won the Championship last season and made virtually no changes in the off-season. I haven't made up my mind yet but I'm not sure I'm going to think that Kerr's coaching maneuvers were so decisive. So where does he go? Either he goes 1st or just not at all, right? I dunno what to do with him honestly.

Popovich, on the other hand, oversaw an overhaul of the Spurs roster. Bringing in Lamarcus Aldridge pushes Tim Duncan, the longtime leader of the team, to the side and continuing to trust Kawhi Leonard with more of the offensive duties pushes Tony Parker, a multi-time champion PG, to the side. Also, considering the continued diminution of the duties of Manu Ginobli and the inexplicably poor shooting year from Danny Green, it seems to me that Popovich had a lot more on his plate than Kerr did and frankly had only a slightly lesser season. Yes, he's got a lot of talent to work with and brought in more during the summer, but the changing dynamic of the team can be earth shattering and yet this Spurs team just set their franchise record for wins and tied the league record for home wins. And while they just got spanked twice by the Warriors, I suspect the Spurs still have plenty left in the tank for the playoff run. I think Popovich is my choice but let's run through the rest of the candidates.

Billy Donovan was a rookie coach this season, stepping in after the long time reign of Scotty Brooks in OKC. The Thunder were led by the great Kevin Durant and the downright beastly Russell Westbrook (both of whom will appear in my MVP post) and got an under appreciated season out of Enes Kanter (my runner up for 6th Man of the Year). Should Donovan get COY? No. I can't honestly say his coaching contribution was any better than the guy that got run out of town last year, the Thunder D is still shaky at best and they're still not closing in the 4th. We'll see if he can bring some innovation to the playoff run and perhaps we'll all eat our words but I'd be surprised if Donovan finished in the top ten for COY.

Doc Rivers coached the Clippers to a fine 4th seed in the West despite long stretches of time without Blake Griffin and continued chaos from the bench. But honestly everything that went wrong was really Rivers' fault. I certainly hope he sends Chris Paul a lovely fruit basket because CP3 single handedly saved the Clippers this year. Of the 16 (or so) coaches listed above, I'd put Rivers near the bottom.

Last summer the Blazers blew up the core and started over behind the leadership of Damien Lillard. Nobody was too impressed with their off-season moves (except for, *ahem*, yours truly, who thought they made a lot of nice low budget maneuvers) and the idea that the Blazers have now cruised into 5th place in the West will surely garner Stotts a lot of COY votes. That's fine, I wouldn't disagree that he had a fine season with an entirely different crew than he'd previously worked with, but I would suggest that the doom and gloom predictions were a bit overwrought. I liked the moves they made last summer and while I think Stotts did a fine job, I think he had more to work with than critics acknowledged at the time. The Blazers started underrated, finished overrated, I suspect Stotts will get a more votes than he really ought to to get.

And then there's the Mavs...6th in the West which is probably where we all thought they'd be in the pre-season but somehow it seems like a shocking achievement now, doesn't it? Carlyle is one of those coaches that does what he does over and over and it generally works, he's got a great groove with the front office and with Dirk and he makes the most of a variety of rotation players that come and go. The Mavs had a nice season--not a bad season, not a great season--a nice season. Its easy to see that Carlyle is a good coach, a professional, a guy that should be doing what he's doing. Even though this team is right where everyone thought they'd be, I think its one of Carlyle's better performances as coach.

Dave Joerger has been on the hot seat all year long in Memphis and in the coming off-season, it feels the Grizzlies are a candidate for a complete makeover (whether they want to or not). The Grizzlies having been gritting and grinding for years now and while 7th in the West is not dissimilar to their recent finishes, this one somehow feels miraculous rather than a continuation of the trend. Marc Gasol has been out for most of the season, Mike Conley has been out for a while and the supporting cast has been wildly changed in the last few weeks. Seems like the Grizzlies were primed for a downturn....but there they are, back in the playoffs just like always. It seems to me Joerger has had one of the best years of his career but its hard to imagine the Grizzlies front office will feel the same way. Hard to imagine that COY voters will either.

At the beginning of the 2014-15 season I thought the Rockets would disappoint and Coach McHale would be on the hot seat; instead, the Rockets played well all year, Harden should've won MVP and they made it to the conference finals. At the beginning of the 2015-16 season I thought the Rockets would finish 1st in the West, Harden really would win the MVP and McHale would be garnering serious COY talk; instead, Harden came in fat and grumpy, McHale got run out of town pronto and the Rockets have struggled all year long waiting til the last day of the season (I mean, right?) to finally make the playoffs. McHale deserved better than he got from his players and though young Mr. Bickerstaff has been fine in his interim-ness, I can't help thinking there's a better coach out there for the this team. No votes for Houston coaches.

I know I said non-playoff coaches won't get any votes but I thought I'd just go ahead and point out that Utah is a really fun young team to watch and they've got a bright future. They squander games down the stretch (should've beat the Warriors last week) the way young teams do but they've shown a lot of improvement and personally I hope they make the playoffs. Coach Snyder has had a good year and he might even get a vote or two.

In the East, the Cavs fired off David Blatt, then had virtually the same winning percentage under Tyronn Lue. No votes for either of those guys.

Last year, I thought the Raptors would dominate the East and Coach Casey would get serious COY votes. They started well then melted away down the stretch then flamed out in the playoffs (for the second straight year). But this year, the Raptors kept their intensity thanks to great team concept and I think Casey deserves a lot of credit for that. Fortunate for him, too, because he may well be looking for a new job if the Raptors had flamed out again.

The Celtics have the best non-Popovich coach in the game of basketball. Brad Stevens had a fine year, the Celtics overacheived again but somehow I don't see him getting as many votes for COY as you think. The Celtics are a dangerous team, a scary team, but somehow you know they're not going too deep with this personnel. Oh well, Stevens is still the best as far as I'm concerned. (Gonna look good on the sidelines at Rupp Arena one o' these days)

Coach Spoelstra has always impressed me. He survived Hurricane Lebron and came out with a bunch of rings and looking strong. The Heat assembled a wild cast of characters this year and while I knew it would take time for them to come together, I trusted that Spoelstra was the perfect coach for the task. It took a little longer maybe than you'd like (especially since the Bulls were horrible and the Hawks fell off from last year) but the Heat do look dangerous going into the post-season. COY? Ehh, not sure I'd go that far, I think the best of the Heat is yet to come.

Last year, the Hawks (think back) dominated the shit out of the stretch between Xmas and the trade deadline catapulting them into the top spot in the East. But, think about it, they've otherwise just been a nice, slightly above average team except for that killer six week stretch they had. Throw in the phony baloney weirdo turmoil around Danny Ferry for over a year, which only resolved when Coach Budenholzer threw him under the bus and took his job...I dunno, man, I do not like the vibe around this team. They're a year older, they overachieved last year, the vibe is all wrong. I gotta admit: I'm not a Coach Bud fan.

Coming into this season I had no faith in the Hornets: I'm dubious on Kemba as a team carrier, I love MKG but the kid cannot score to save his life, Big Al looks past his prime, I love Batum but I wondered if he was over last year's nagging injuries, I thought Kamisky would be a nice player but he's not the McRoberts replacement that GM Jordan has been longing for, I don't dislike Jeremy Lin but I didn't see him as the 6th Man type the Hornets needed. Honestly....I think I still think all of those things! But hey, man, this team is going strong into the playoffs which is not something that I saw coming. I give all credit to Coach Clifford, big ups to that guy.

I love Coach Vogel, I think he has over-performed for years in Indiana and this was another season of that. COY? Well, not sure I'd go that far but I'm a fan and I think he had a great year.

Coach Stan Van has remade the Pistons over the last few years and will finally be getting some post-season love this year. I can't imagine they'll beat the Cavs but they'll make 'em work and that'll be a good show. The best is still ahead for the Pistons.

So who I got?
1 Popovich (Spurs)
2 Casey (Raptors)
3 Clifford (Hornets)
4 Carlyle (Mavs)
5 Kerr (Warriors) (I guess I gotta have him in my top 5--they were one of the best teams ever!)

Coach of the Year Update

Derek Fisher is now out of the race for Coach of the Year as he has been fired by the Knicks. He never seemed like the right guy to coach that team to begin with, so I guess I'm not surprised that he's no longer the coach, although I don't see any particular reason to fire him now. The rumor is the Knicks are hot on the trail of Luke Walton--and the next rumor is the Lakers are too (and that Byron Scott would sooner rather than later be removed from Coach of the Year contention). Walton's credentials are he won a bunch of games as the interim coach of the greatest team in league history; there's some value in that but I don't see anything about the Warriors' situation that corresponds to the Knicks or the Lakers.

Where does Fisher go from here? He's got no NCAA cred, I don't see him as a TV commentator any time soon, and he wasn't successful enough with the Knicks to move him higher on the depth chart above, say, Thibodeau or Mark Jackson or even D'Antoni. The creepy realization is he'd probably an assistant for Luke Walton if he ends up with the Lakers (any thought that Fisher could help lure Durant to the Lake Show?). Almost certainly his next job will be as an assistant coach somewhere in the NBA (maybe with the Pelicans or Thunder). I guess he could go to the Nets, but, man, who wants that heart burn? Might the Grizzlies be interested in him if they let of Joerger?

As for the Knicks, they'll have Kurt Rambis as the interim coach. And if they fail on their run at Walton, the job is supposedly all wrapped up and ready for Thibodeau. I'm lukewarm on Thibodeau for most jobs but I think this one would be a good fit. NYK needs some leadership, some direction, and Thibs would definitely bring that. (Hmmm, would NYK be interested in free agent-to-be Joakim Noah?)

Next up on the rumor mill: George Karl's days with the Kings appear to be numbered. And the Lakers are already apparently looking for Byron Scott's replacement (but then again I assume searching for his replacement began four seconds after introducing him as the coach).

Coach of the Year, as of right now, is still Popovich. Who else is even in the discussion? Dwayne Casey (Raptors)? Brad Stevens (Celtics)? How about Quin Snyder (Jazz)? Yeah, still clearly Popovich, don't ya think?

NBA Coach of the Year Update

The Suns have dismissed Jeff Hornacek so he is now officially out of the running for Coach of the Year. Given the Suns' abysmal start, he would've needed an amazing 2nd half to get any COY consideration. Earl Watson has been named the Interim Coach. Will Watson retain the job into next year? I doubt it. I think Phoenix is a good spot for David Blatt and while I don't think the Suns will be in the running for Tom Thiboadeau or Mark Jackson, I suspect they'll get someone more high profile than Watson.

The Suns' next priority is moving Markieff Morris, which I suspect will happen by the trade deadline. What can they get for him? They don't really need another PG but that's never stopped them for adding superfluous PGs before. Markieff will undoubtedly want to go to Detroit who has Brandon Jennings, a very similarly priced asset, just waiting for his future to begin. Not at all a perfect match but the closeness of the salaries could bring a third team into the mix (Avery Bradley of the Celtics? Mike Conley of the Grizzlies?). We'll see.

Coach of the Year is still Popovich, even with the fact that the Spurs got pounded by the Warriors and the Cavs in rapid succession and that the Spurs are headed into the tough part of their schedule. That said, I still can't put anyone else ahead of him for now.

NBA Coach of the Year

David Blatt was unceremoniously dumped by the Cavs this afternoon, thus he is no longer in the running for Coach of the Year. Perhaps it was laughable to consider him a real candidate but his team was #1 in the East with the 4th best record over all, those metrics tend to put you in the running. But this team was different. Blatt was never Lebron's 'guy' and always seemed on the hot seat even though his record in the NBA is among the best of all time for the 140 or so games he coached. With rumblings about Kevin Love and/Timofey Mozgov getting traded, it seems like the Cavs are not done making moves.

The Cavs apparently have passed the job interim-free onto Tyronn Lue, who signed a 3yr/$9.5m contract today. The good news for me personally is now the only obvious job choice for John Calipari seems to be off the table. Kentucky is only kinda okay this year but UK in the Calipari tenure have been an every other year kinda team and he's got another fine class coming next year to be paired with this year's good but not great class. Cats in 2017, y'all! And he's gonna make way more than Tyronn Lue for the foreseeable future (though it would not have taken $120m to get Cal to Cleveland).

So can Lue win Coach of the Year? No. How could he? What could the Cavs possibly do that would be an improvement on what Blatt was going to do? Winning the East seems likely, winning the Championship seems unlikely, with Blatt or Lue. So unless the Cavs go undefeated for the rest of the year, I don't see how Lue (or even a Blatt/Lue platoon) finishes in the top five. Indeed, until the impending trade roster moves, I don't see any difference in the Cavs now. I guess the Cavs locker room will be a more pleasant place....but maybe not.

And what happens to Blatt? Well, the Spurs bench surely has a seat saved for him but the early buzz seems to have him going to the Wolves. I guess but it all depends on whether Garnett likes him. At the moment he seems to be controlling the vibe there so if KG signs off on Blatt it could work...but if he doesn't, it'll be Cleveland all over again for Blatt. My suggestion: how about Phoenix? The core of Bledsoe, Knight, Chandler, Warren, Len, for better or worse, pretty much is what it is and flushing out Markieff and Hornacek will leave the team in a place where they need only a strong coaching presence. Blatt is used to winning but in the NBA he'll have to grind. If the Suns front office could get out of the way, Phoenix might be a solid landing site for Blatt.

Coach of the Year is still Popvich. Can't really even think of a 2nd place.

Coach of the Year

In determining Coach of the Year candidates, it is best to start at the other end: who's gonna get fired first?

Interim coaches: Sam Mitchell (T-Wolves). Mitchell stepping in for the late Flip Saunders has an opportunity to keep this job. I suspect he will not be replaced during the season but that doesn't mean the job is his to keep. He's got a youth movement on his hands and if the T-Wolves vastly overachieve (say, hanging around that 8th playoff spot) then I think he's got a decent shot at Coach of the Year. Not my pick but not a crazy longshot as I think that team will be better than you think right away because as opposed to the Magic and Jazz, the Wolves have enough veteran presence to give the young talent something to lean on.

1st year coaches: Mike Malone (Nuggets), Scott Skiles (Magic), Fred Hoiberg (Bulls), Alvin Gentry (Pelicans), Billy Donovan (Thunder), George Karl (Kings).

I think the Nuggets will be the worst team in the West, for which Malone will receive none of the blame, thus he is neither a candidate for best or worst of the year. His job is to keep morale up and get Mudiay used to life in the NBA.
If Skiles can get the Magic into the playoffs (not a crazy notion) then he'll get some votes. There are too many other good candidates to think he'll win Coach of the Year but I doubt he gets fired unless the wheels come off down there (which I do NOT anticipate will happen).
Hoiberg has a real shot at COY: my personal belief is that Thibodeau kinda ran the Bulls into the ground giving Hoiberg a good chance at increasing offensive efficiency without sacrificing defensive intensity; in short, I think the Bulls will be good and Hoiberg will get serious consideration.
Gentry is taking over a team that was okay last year, looks to be a little more okay this year. If the Pelicans take a jump, he'll get a lot of votes, but I don't think they will be wildly better than last year so I don't think he wins. No way he gets fired though.
Donovan is taking over a squad that has underperformed for a few years now, if he can keep them healthy, the Thunder will be one of the best teams in the league giving Donovan a great shot at Coach of the Year. No way he gets fired this year.
Karl has a tough job ahead of him, there's talent there but not enough to succeed in the West. I suspect Karl is more likely to be fired (or resign to preserve his mental health) than get votes for Coach of the Year.

2nd year coaches: Derek Fisher (Knicks), Stan Van Gundy (Pistons), David Blatt (Cavs), Lionel Hollins (Nets), Jason Kidd (Bucks), Byron Scott (Lakers), Steve Kerr (Warriors), Quin Snyder (Jazz)

Fisher's job is to be the face of the team until the team develops enough of an identity to lure a real coach. I doubt he gets fired because I doubt a real coach emerges but even though NYK should be waaaaay better than last year, they won't be good enough to earn some Coach of the Year consideration for Fisher.
Personally I don't get what Stan Van is doing in Detroit but they already look better than last year and a lot of folks think they're gonna make the playoffs (I'm still dubious). Making the playoffs alone probably won't be enough to get SVG COY votes but no way he gets fired (especially since he is his own boss).
Blatt has the uniquest (hmmm, I thought I just invented that word but spell check so its okay) career in the NBA: every second of his time in Cleveland will be on the hot seat, but he'll probably make the conference finals every year. The difference between winning Coach of the Year and getting sent packing is razor thin. Unless someone like Hoiberg or Donovan emerges, Blatt could actually win.
Hollins is coaching a horrible team that has no chance of being good. No way he gets COY votes, but should probably keep his job because there's no one out there that would be any better at this job.
Kidd has some real expectations in Milwaukee, we'll see how he does. I don't think the Bucks get into the top 4 in the East so I don't think he gets any votes but I think his job is pretty secure.
Scott's job is to watch over the flailing Lakers until the next wave of free agents floods in. Currently the job has no up side (they will not be good this year) and no down side (nobody else wants this job...until the free agents arrive).
Kerr is a golden boy, no way he loses his job. But unless the Warriors win 70 games (could happen) I don't see him getting more COY votes.
I think Snyder is doing a good job in Utah but unless they sneak up on people (like getting past the Pelicans and Grizzlies) I don't see him getting more than a token vote for COY. Probably no way he gets fired though, he's doing well there.

3rd year coaches: Brad Stevens (Celtics), Mike Budenholzer (Hawks), Steve Clifford (Hornets), Brett Brown (Sixers), Jeff Hornacek (Suns), Dave Joerger (Grizzlies), Doc Rivers (Clippers)

Stevens is the BEST COACH IN THE LEAGUE. But unless the Celtics vault into the top 4 of the East (uh, I don't see that happening), he won't get votes for Coach of the Year. No way he gets fired--quite the opposite: they'll have to beg him to stay one o' these days.
Budenholzer has now taken over GM duties in Atlanta in a divisive corporate atmosphere. Bold prediction: I think Budenholzer the most likely to get fired. Yes, he just won COY last year but the expectations are higher in Atlanta and I fear this squad has already peaked. Rather than entrenching his position, I suspect taking on more responsibility will make him even more of a target. Coach Bud better get it done this year or he might get sent packing.
Clifford is the next on the hot seat, though firing him would purely be to 'shake things up'. The Hornets made the playoffs two years ago, sputtered last year and I suspect will sputter some more this year. There was a time when the Hornets could sneak up on people, that time has passed. I think he's done a decent job with what he's been given but we're getting near that time when the GM has to fire somebody rather than take the blame himself. Thus I think Clifford is probably on the hottest seat in the league.
Brown could be the fall guy in Philly but I don't think so, I think he's part of the plan. And I suspect when the Sixers actually try to win again (next summer?), that Brown will still be part of the plan. No way he wins Coach of the Year but I don't see him getting fired either, I think he's their guy for the future.
Hornacek is another (like Clifford) that could take the blame for a scuffling front office. I think he's done a pretty good job but there's something off about that franchise and unless the Suns make the playoffs (I had them in but....nobody else did) he might be looking for a job next summer.
Joerger has done a fine job in Memphis but it feels like this Grizzlies squad has peaked. Unless they get perimeter scoring (they have tried and failed so many times in the last few years), they will not be in the top 4 in the West. The Grizzlies are good but doesn't feel like they're getting better, does Joerger take the fall for that? He might.
Rivers is his own boss and I think the Clippers will be a solid regular season squad. I think there are better candidates for COY but no way he gets fired.

4th year coaches: Terry Stotts (Blazers), Randy Wittman (Wizards)

Stotts is in a weird place: no way the Blazers are as good as previous years but if he can salvage something from this season, he might be closer to Coach of the Year than ever before. But unless things go horribly, I don't see him getting fired either (indeed, I'd say there's a better chance he quits than gets fired). I think the Blazers will be okay, might even be in contention for that 8th spot, so I don't see him leaving this year.
I think the Wizards will be a really good regular season team this year so unless health turns really bad, I think Wittman should get some COY votes and no way he gets fired.

5th year coaches: Kevin McHale (Rockets), Dwayne Casey (Raptors), Frank Vogel (Pacers)

I can see the Rockets being the top team in the West, McHale could get some serious votes for COY. Could the Rockets replace McHale? I doubt it.
Dwayne Casey could be at the end of his time in Toronto, but I don't think so. I think the Raptors will be a pretty good team in the East and unless management thinks there's somebody better out there, I suspect Casey gets no votes for COY but will be back next year.
Vogel is the man for the Pacers, they'd be foolish to let him go. That said, I don't see the Pacers making the playoffs so I don't see Vogel getting COY votes.

Veteran coaches: Eric Spoelstra (Heat), Rick Carlisle (Mavs), Greg Popovich (Spurs)

Spoelstra has his hands full with this team. I think the Heat could be really good this year and we'll see if Spoelstra is up to the task of mixing and matching this weird collection of talent. I think he will, I think he's a really good coach and I think he'll be in the mix for Coach of the Year.
Carlisle just signed an extension, which probably indicates the Mavs will try to tank this year. While I don't think the Mavs will be good, I don't think they'll tank, that's just not who they are. They're still gonna beat sloppy teams, they're still gonna get hot from the floor, they're gonna play with pride. Carlisle will get no Coach of the Year votes but nor will he get fired.
Popovich is Popovich, man.

Weird season: I don't see any obvious hot seat candidates, normally there's one or two every year. So for most likely to get fired I'll go with Karl (Kings), Clifford (Hornets), Joerger (Grizzlies) and maybe Budenholzer (Hawks) and Hornacek (Suns). I wouldn't recommend any of those firings but GMs gotta blame somebody and these guys seem like the most likely to take the blame.

For Coach of the Year I'll go: Hoiberg (Bulls), McHale (Rockets), Kerr (Warriors), Spoelstra (Heat), Donovan (Thunder). (Wittman will deserve votes but he won't get them)

Coach of the Year

Mike Budenholzer (Hawks) is your 2014-15 NBA (fill in sponsor) Coach of the Year.  Kerr (Warriors) was 2nd, followed by Jason Kidd (Bucks) and Brad Stevens (Celtics).  Budenholzer and Kerr were the clear top 2 choices, both teams vastly exceeded last year with minimal roster moves.  Perhaps its foolhardy to assume the coach gets all the credit...but that's how we do it.  Let's look over each team and how they were coached this year.

EAST
Hawks: The only real difference btw this year's squad and last year's squad is the return of Al Horford (a great season btw) and the exiles of Lou Williams (to Toronto), Adriean Payne (to Minnesota) and GM Danny Ferry (to wherever it is Danny Ferry hangs out).  The same team from last year grew together and got career years out of everybody.  Coach Bud deserve all the credit?  Yeah, sure, I guess.  Its a good roster all on the same page.  I love that with this Hawks team everyone shoots 3's, everyone!  That'll keep any defense off balance.  Budenholzer is a good coach, had a good year.

Cavs: Can Lebron win Coach of the Year?  He's the coach, right?  David Blatt flew in from a different world and before he could even hang up posters, his team was taken over by a ghost returned from Miami.  Hard to tell what Blatt's influence is.  My gut feeling is if Love stays, Blatt goes and vice versa.  Blatt doesn't get any of the credit if/when they win, we'll see how much of the blame comes to him if/when they lose.  Can't really tell if Blatt is a good coach or had a productive year.

Bulls: For years Coach Thibs has kept plucky youngsters overacheiving by being a rugged taskmaster and stressing team defense above all.  That style works for a while and then wears people out.  The buzz all year long (really going back a coupla years now) is that the franchise has wearied of Thibs and that he's probably on his way out (New Orleans?  OKC?  Would he be up for being an assistant in Cleveland to Coach Calipari?  Orlando might be the best spot for him).  All year long I've wondered why the Bulls weren't better: they got a great maturation year out of Butler, added an excellent year from Pau, got a strong rookie campaign from Mirotic, fir Dunleavy and Brooks back to their proper rotation spots, D Rose had a solid return season and while Taj Gibson kinda floundered, Doug McDermott never got in the game and D Rose was out of action for long chunks of the season, seems to me the Bulls should have improved more than they did.  Oh well, this team is solid enough that they cruised to 3rd place in the East without much effort, they were looking ahead to the playoffs anyway.  Coach Thibs didn't seem to have much impact on this team: a new and different squad somehow managed to play just like last year...that doesn't seem right at all...I'd say Thibodeau was playing for the playoffs all year long, if the Bulls come out of the East, then he will have shown himself to be Coach of the Year.  But for the regular season alone, Thibs isn't even in the conversation, I'd say.

Raptors: The Hawks brought back the same squad as last year and dominated the East.  The Raptors brought back the same squad and dominated the East...for a month or so.  Somewhere around Xmas time, the bloom came off the rose and even though they were all still having good years, the Raptors were not the steady regular season juggernaut team that the Hawks became.  So were the saving it for the playoffs?  Do the Raptors have another gear to get to?  Ehhh, I'm dubious.  I thought the Raptors would overacheive and as a result I thought Dwayne Casey would be a popular pick for Coach of the Year by this time.  4th place is nice but its not a sign of a great season.  Casey not in my top ten for Coach of the Year.

Wizards: Like the Raptors, I thought the Wizards would be a good regular season team that could be really dangerous come playoff time; and in that scenario, Randy Whittman would emerge a great candidate for Coach of the Year.  But the Wizards have mostly floundered along and the team itself seems raggedy and unbrotherly; whereas last year the Wizards were playing their best basketball going into the playoffs (where they easily smacked down the overacheiving Bulls), this year they seem spent and they haven't even started.  There could be a locker room cancer at work lowering the morale, but no one seems to fit that role.  Only conclusion: the coach is weak, nobody likes him, he doesn't know what he's doing, he's unable to provide cohesion for his squad.  Maybe details will emerge but until then the disappointing look and feel of this team falls squarely on the coach.  Whittman is not in my top 20.

Bucks: At the beginning of the year, Jason Kidd was one of the many question marks about the Bucks.  The Bucks were awful last year but not really that bad, that roster was more ready to compete than a #1 pick kinda team usually is, so I'm not surprised they were much better this year.  But the emergence of Antetokounpo, Middleton and Dudley, getting the most out of Knight, easing MCW into the framework, letting go of Larry Sanders, getting over the loss of Jabari, all examples of what a tumultuous year this was for the Bucks.  There was a lot going on there and they responded with their best finish in ages.  This is an obvious one: if Kidd was a bad coach, this year would've been a mess thus he must be a good coach because most things worked out pretty good.  Kidd is a top 5 choice for Coach of the Year.

Celtics: I thought the Celtics would be a dumpster fire this year.  Rondo and Green loomed over the team, neither promising a happy finish.  The team seemed primed for a tank job.  But Stevens is a hell of a coach, man.  He keeps them falling out of games, he keeps the team competitive.  Purging Rondo and Green was a boon for the team and giving Coach Stevens players like Isiah Thomas, Jae Crowder, Marcus Smart leads to hustle and productivity.  I like Stevens, he's the real star of the team, Stevens is the guy that'll lure free agents for the next few years.  The fact that a coach can will a bad team to be a pretty good (or at least 'promising') team is impressive.  Stevens is a top 5 choice for Coach of the Year.

Nets: The Nets have made the playoffs 3 straight years with 3 different coaches...yet we all know that the Nets suck, have for years, and will for years.  Shouldn't we think that Hollins did a good job of taking a low morale, low efficiency team and getting them into the playoffs.  Isn't that a Disney narrative there for us to latch on to?  Why aren't we latching on?  (Shouldn't we retroactively give Jason Kidd consideration for last year's Coach of the Year award?)  Sitting on my couch, looking over the box scores, that feels like a squad of guys getting paychecks instead playing basketball.  Hollins seems like one of those guys too.

Pacers: At the start of the year to me there were two ways the Pacers could go: flame out horribly and play for ping pong balls or they can buckle down, play with veteran intensity and figure out how to win games.  I figured they were more likely to go the former route rather than the latter because even buckling down and playing smart didn't look like it would generate enough offense to win games.  They struggled to score last year with Paul George and Lance Stephenson, I just assumed that without them there was not enough defense to counter that lack of offense.  But the Pacers really did compete night and night, held together, bunker-style, got a wildly underappreciated season out of Rodney Stuckey (my #2 choice for 6th Man of the Year), and held their identity right down to the final day of the season.  Hey, man, I'm impressed.  I credit Larry Bird for not panicking and Frank Vogel for keeping the guys playing professional basketball.  If they'd made the playoffs, Vogel would be in my top 5, but he's easily top 10.

Heat: The world waited breathlessly to see how Coach Spo would adjust to being Lebron-less.  They lost McRoberts early on, lost Bosh later on, Wade played his usual in and out of the lineup maneuver, and though they didn't really exploit Goran Dragin, they can herald the emergence of Hassan Whiteside and a promising rookie season from Shabazz Napier. Next year the Heat look like they should be pretty good (starting five: Dragic, Wade, McRoberts, Bosh, Whiteside), we'll get a better look at Coach Spo then.  This year Spoelstra did well to hold it together.  (I bet next year he'll get more votes for Coach of the Year)

Hornets: I wasn't sold on the Hornets last year, I thought losing McRoberts was going to hurt, wasn't too impressed with the signings of Marvin Williams and Lance Stephenson, not sure why I thought the team would improve.  They didn't improve, they were pretty bad really.  Kemba looks lost, Big Al did not repeat his prior good year, neither MKG nor Zeller took a step forward, Noah Vonleh did not shine out this year, Lance was a disaster, Marvin Williams was not a good signing.  I don't like anything about this team and while I think the GM is really the problem, I can't say as I have much faith in the coach either.  Coach ? is not in my top 20.

Pistons: Stan Van Gundy has tough task ahead of him.  Good year?  I dunno.  I don't know how we could know.  Detroit is a town that with an NBA legacy so you hope that school spirit can help the Pistons rise from the ashes.  But, man, that roster is a mess, it'll still be a mess next year, maybe in two years we'll see something out of the Pistons.  Stan Van a good coach?  I'd like to think so but not this year.

Magic: Here's what the Magic hoped to get out of this season: fine rookie seasons out of Gordon and Payton, good maturation years out of Oladipo, Harris and Vucevic, see if Harkless, Fournier are keepers, and hope the Frye, Ben Gordon, Ridenour signings look stupid.  Notice that making the playoffs was not one of the milestones Orlando even hoped to achieve this year.  Payton had a hell of a season and its clear he can play with Oladipo, Vucevic is a good candidate for Most Improved, Tobias Harris needs to be signed, Frye is okay (Gordon and Ridenour should both be put of my misery), Aaron Gordon had some injuries but seems like he's gonna be fine.  Harkless, Dedmon and Fournier look like keepers...so did the Magic have a bad season?  No.  They had a great season!  All of the above and they saved money and ended up with a top 5 pick!  Great season!  So how do we measure the contributions of the Vaughn/Borrego tandem?  I dunno.  But neither of those guys can finish in the top 20 can they?

Sixers: The Sixers are designed to lose games but bring young players along.  Coach Brown seems like he knows what he's doing, I hope that when they are finally capable of success that Brown is still there to get some of the spoils too.  How do you rank a coach like Brown?  Easily in my top 20, maybe my top 10.

Knicks: The Knicks are terrible, nothing but terrible, nothing good happened this year.  Don't want to blame new coach Derek Fisher but can't credit him with anything either.  Fisher is not in my top 20.

Coach of the Year (part 2)

West

Warriors: I had the Warriors improving this season but they exceeded my expectations by a long shot. With this team (unlike the Hawks) you can see changes from the previous years basically in the play of 3 dudes: Harrison Barnes, Draymond Green, Andre Iguodala.  Kerr used Barnes correctly, was able to convince Iguodala (and Lee) to take a lesser role, and oversaw the emergence of Green (personally, I think Green would've still been a badass under Mark Jackson, Kerr was lucky enough to be there when he blossomed).  Add in a typical maturation year from Thompson and a healthy year from Bogut, then Curry is allowed to just do what he does best: he's better at expanding a lead than hitting the last shot to win it (he's a piler-onner more than a rescuer).  Kerr streamlined the offense, tightened the defense, got the most out of his parts.  He'd be my choice for Coach of the Year.

Rockets: At the beginning of the year, Coach McHale was one of the popular choices for an early firing.  Nope.  2nd best record in the West, suck on that!  The James Harden show worked better than I thought it would, exceeded everyone's expectations (we'll see how far he can carry that in the playoffs).  How much credit does McHale deserve?  Well, he didn't screw it up.  He didn't get in the way but there's nothing I can really point to and say that's the McHale effect.  I don't know where to put McHale, top 20 I guess.

Clippers: I thought the Clippers would roll this year, not so much but they had a really good season, so can't complain.  The Clippers, though, have post-season expectation so for the regular season his coaching doesn't seem that integral.  That top 6 (CP3, Reddick, Barnes, Deandre, Blake and Jamal off the bench) is pretty great.  Man, after that though, oooooohhhh, doesn't look good.  You'd think the coach wold make the most out of that, right?  Then why does it look like Austin Rivers is gonna get the 7th most minutes played this post-season?  That top 6 can beat the Spurs, the next 4 will lose to the Spurs.  As the Spurs get into the bullpen, they'll score plenty.  (Weird: This series will go 7 games but I can see the first 6 games being blowouts, home team will crush for the first 6 games)  So how's the coach?  Doc the Coach is cursed by Doc the GM, the guy who still has Turkoglu, Big Baby and Austin (can we call him 'Little Baby'?) on the roster.  I dunno, finishing 3rd in the West doesn't seem like the correct place to judge his season.  Doc is in my top 20, maybe top 10.

Blazers: I expected the Blazers to falter this year as their starters logged more and more minutes (or got hurt).  I don't know much about Coach Stotts, I thought if the Blazers dipped in the table (out of the playoffs I thought), then Stotts could be sent packing.  Stotts seems like an integral part of the vibe but really this team goes as far as Lillard and Aldridge can carry them, not sure it matters who the coach is.  And since the coach's strategy is to continually use and abuse his starters, I figured maybe the Blazers would be better without him.  But they overachieved this year, easily made the playoffs even without Matthews.  Still, though, I don't know what to make of Stotts because I don't get the Blazers at all.

Grizzlies: As much as any team I can think of recently, it feels like the Grizz thrive on the relationships of the players more than the scheme on the court or even the roster construction.  When Gasol-Conley-Zebo-Allen are groovin' they can hang with anyone in the league; if any one of those guys is off, the Grizzly bench doesn't step up as much as need be.  I think the Grizzlies can win at home in the playoffs but I don't like them on the road.  The coach is the guy that needs to make the most of the non-core players.  Not sure Coach Joerger is that guy.  Joerger is probably top 20 but not top 10.

Spurs: I love Coach Popovich almost as much as I love basketball itself.  (John Lennon thought rock and roll could be called Chuck Berry, I think basketball can be called Coach Pop)  I thought the Spurs would hum through the regular season, cruise through the West, crush whoever in the Finals; the Spurs actually kinda sucked for the first 2 months, didn't really get right til the All-Star break, closed strong...but then curiously dropped the last game in New Orleans (one of the clearest conspiracy theory talking points of the entire season), fell from 2nd down to 6th.  The masterstroke move at the end of the year backfired and left them playing the Clippers, who can beat them.  So did Coach Pop have a good season?  If they beat the Pelicans, Pop gets serious Coach of the Year consideration; if they lose, how can you give Coach of the Year to the defending champion that finished 6th while enduring no great hardship?  Well he's still in my top 5.

Mavs: I thought the Mavs would improve this season up into the top 4 in the West; they seemed well on their way to doing that til they panic-moved for Rondo and shot their offense in the foot.  They still had enough talent, veteran grit and (yep) coaching smarts to secure a playoff spot in the West (against the potentially beatable Rockets).  Though he openly fought with his high profile contract year PG, I think Coach Carlisle did pretty well to keep the wheels from falling off.  The GM did him no favors this year and that has to factor in.  Carlisle definitely in my top 10.

Pelicans: The thought pre-season was suspicion that Monte Williams wasn't good enough to coach Anthony Davis and he'd probably be pushed aside for a more high profile candidate (Calipari, Thibodeau, Karl, Donovan, D'antoni, Mike Brown, Larry Brown is always just a phone call away (couldn't Ben Howland coach in the NBA?)) and that only making the playoffs could save his job...which is (theoretically) what happened.  I was of a different view: I thought Williams had a rapport with AD that would save his job, since the problem is the horrible roster construction rather than x's and o's.  I'm not sure any of the above is true.  I guess Williams stays, I don't think he's horrible but I don't think he's great either, and either way the horrible roster construction is what is bad about the team and Anthony Davis is all that is good...not really much for the coach to do.  Why fire the guy your star likes when the situation isn't really ready for a high profile coach anyway?  Williams is a middle of the pack coach (that's probably better than most people would rank him) and I reckon he's here to stay.

Thunder: I thought OKC would fall back this year and I predicted two scenarios: either Brooks is blamed for everything and run out of town or the GM values stability and doubles down on the coach that KD and Westbrook have tolerated for the last few years.  I am still convinced one of those things will happen, but I have no idea which one and I've never had any grasp on which will prevail.  If OKC thinks they can get a coach that Westbrook and KD will like better, I reckon Brooks is out; if they think another coach would just muck up the chemistry, then I reckon Brooks gets an extension.  I dunno.  Did Brooks have a good year?  Well I thought they made some great moves at the deadline but only Kanter really seemed to matter (and some are dubious of his positive impact), shouldn't the coach have made more of a difference?  Brooks is much maligned but I reckon he does just fine.  I'd make him top 20 just based on experience.

Suns: I drank the Suns kool-aid last year, thought the Suns would make the 3 PG thing work and cruise into the playoffs.  Nope.  None of that.  Not a terrible year but the unexpected improvement of the year before suggested a steeper upward curve than this past year bore out.  This season saw a lot more roster maneuvering than I would've thought (Dragic, Thomas, Plumlee, Ennis Tolliver got jettisoned), so all in all they've got the future laid out: maybe the Bledsoe-Knight combo can get it done, maybe not.  I guess I still gotta say Coach Hornacek had a decent year, top 20 easily.

Jazz: Coach Snyder did well.  The Jazz are one of those terminally young teams who are built on draft picks because no big NBA star wants to live in Salt Lake City.  The Stockton-Malone days are gone, they are now destined to be a feeder team that always has a nice young nucleus of players....that will all play better for other teams (the Donald Sterling Clippers, the Pittsburgh Pirates for two solid decades).  Their only chance is to draft well and shepherd them into solid NBA careers.  Kanter was the odd man out all along, once they finally got rid of him Gobert had room to grow.  Hayward, Favors had nice years, Exum had a good rookie campaign, they got good minutes from Ingles, Evans, Hood and Booker.  A lot of young talent without the veteran smarts to win big in the NBA but they can be competitive with good coaching.  I'd say that's where they are.  Snyder had a top 10 year.

Nuggets: At the start of the year Brian Shaw was a popular choice for getting fired during the year.  The Nuggets were not very good, weird injury problems, weird morale, Shaw got the axe.  His interim replacement (?) is well-respected and may well keep the job.  But the Nuggets are the Nuggets, man, they usually have good talent, sometimes they overachieve, sometimes they underachieve.  This year I can't say either of their coaches get too much from me.

Kings: Coach Malone got off to a great start this year...then Boogie get sick and Malone got fired.  Not sure why, never really sure about anything that happens in Sacramento (the NBA equivalent of Twin Peaks).  They went with (some guy) as an interim for a while, lost because the Kings were gonna lose anyway, then gave George Karl a dump truck full of money.  Karl had a seemingly good effect on McLemore, Gay and Stauskus but apparently not so much on Boogie.  Buzz is they'll be shopping Boogie in the off-season.  So how was Karl?  Well Malone actually won a few games with Boogie, Karl might get him shipped out of town.  Karl might be the right coach for the Kings next year but he didn't do much for them this year.

Lakers: Coach Scott's job is to stand there and remind everybody how good the Lakers usually are.  The roster will change quite a bit next year, maybe he'll have something to work with.  Maybe when the Lakers finally turn around Coach Scott will still be there to get some glory...maybe not.  He's collecting a paycheck.  Not in my top 20.


Wolves: Coach Flip is just there in case GM Flip turns out to be a genius.  Wiggins, LaVine and Payne are good looking rookies, Dieng and Muhammad are still young, I don't hate the Peckovic and Rubio contracts but they need to get veteran presence if they're paying top dollar for it.  They've got a lot of nice players, they'll be adding one more this year, (don't you think Kevin Martin would look good in Mavs uniform?), is Coach Flip a developer of talent?  We'll see.  How was his coaching performances?  I dunno.  Top 20 I guess, he kept his youth playing hard all year, that's good stuff.