2020-21 NBA Awards (Rookie of the Year)

94 NBA Debuts in 2020-21. 21 played over 1000 minutes, 27 played fewer then 100 minutes. 22 averaged more than 20MPG, 9 averaged over 10PPG, 

This rookie class looks to me like a lot of mid-level talent but not a lot of obvious stars. I think this class is going play a ton of games in the future, but probably not a lot of All-Star Games. That's not bad, the world needs good basketball players the same way it needs great ones. 

My criteria: ROY, to me, is a forward-looking (as opposed to backward-looking) award. So, for example, in most of these Awards I have an obsession with Minutes Played (*); but with Rookies, I don't give a shit how many minutes they played. I care about who seems to be the most promising prospect going forward. This is pretty much pure eyeball test because I don't really care about the stats on rookies. How many of these rookies got MVP votes? (Zero) How many of these rookies single-handedly dragged their teams into the playoffs? (Zero) How many of them led the league in anything? (Zero) So...what does comparing their stats tell us? (Almost Zero) The question is who has the best chance to be a bust out superstar? This year, I thought that was a pretty easy call.

Rookie of the Year: Anthony Edwards (Wolves)

Edwards is still very raw but his potential left the Wolves feeling optimistic at the end of the season when, frankly, not much good happened (and they've probably already given away their lottery pick). His athleticism is something unseen before and if Minnesota wasn't such a gloomy organization (**), I think we'd have seen a lot more of him in the general NBA buzz. The way he gets to the rim is something to behold, man, and he's got at least 3-4 more years of getting better at that! Clearly he hasn't actually played much basketball in his life--and I think that's great! He's raw but he doesn't have bad habits! He can be trained to be something unworldly (get to work on FT%, my man, you're gonna be at the line an awful lot). Yeah, the Wolves have pretty much botched everything the last few years and picking a project at #1 was not a guarantee, but I think Edwards has amazing upside and he's my pick for ROY. 

I'll take Tyrese Halliburton (Kings) next. Yeah, yeah, I like LaMelo Ball (Hornets) as much as the next guy, he's got a lot of upside as a playmaker and just a fun watch on the court. But I've got doubts about his ability to be a consistent force, I think it's going to take him a while to settle in to being a reliable player and the way the Hornets have managed rosters over the years, I got a bad feeling he might not ever get there. And head-to-head, Halluburton is a much better shooter and has a better asst:to, though LaMelo gets to the line at a much better clip and is a better rebounder. I like both of these guys, I think they're really similar players but I think Halliburton actually has a better chance to be the better player. 

I'll take Immanual Quickly (Knicks) next. As a rook, I thought he handled himself well as a playmaker and is clearly gonna be a good scorer. (The Knicks movement for all Kentucky/Duke guys is probably not a bad idea for them) 

I'll round out my top five with Patrick Williams (Bulls) is definitely a player--again, though, probably not an all-star, just a reliable down low guy for many years to come. Probably not gonna be the biggest number hanger but he's the kinda guy other guys are gonna wanna play with.  

A few more nice rookies: RJ Hampton (Magic), Alkesej Pokusevski (Thunder), Saddiq Bey (Pistons), Precious Achiuwa (Heat). And I'm not out on James Wiseman (Warriors), I think he can still be a really good player but it might not be for Golden State (if he'd had Klay Thompson....oh, we could've gotten a real look at him). Not a bust, clearly has talent on both ends, but he's young, a bit of a project, I think he's still got a ton of upside and Steve Kerr will hopefully be the guy to get it. 

Not sure about: Cole Anthony (Magic), Malachi Flynn (Raptors), Tyrese Maxey (Sixers), Devin Vassell (Spurs), Dani Avdija (Wizards), Desmond Bane (Grizzlies).  They all had moments of looking good but then again...not. Hard to tell which is these guys will bloom, which won't, or which will need a change of scenery. Although I can proscribe a change of scenery for one player already: Obi Toppin (Knicks). I thought he looked kinda nice and there's definitely potential there, but it ain't gonna be with NYK (unless they move on from Julius Randle--which can totally happen, btw, don't underestimate the Knicks' ability to outsmart themselves). (***)

Two from my blind spot: the Cavs are in my blackout zone and I didn't watch much Rockets this year, so Isaac Okoro (Cavs) and Jae'San Tate (Rockets), nice to meet you. Nice stats, Okoro in particular really looks like a promising member of the Cavs core (moving on from Kevin Love has got to be their priority for the summer) and, well, the Rockets will likely suck at everything for the next coupla years, so Tate will probably neither add nor subtract from that going forward (which makes valuing his on-court play virtually impossible); is Tate built to dominate a crappy team or is he legit good and stuck in a soul-sucking situation? I dunno, could go either way. 

And there's a batch I'm little more muted on: Theo Maledon (Grizzlies), Payton Pritchard (Celtics), Jaden McDaniels (Wolves), Chuma Okeke (Magic), Facundo Campazzo (Nuggets), Isiah Stewart (Pistons), Killian Hayes (Pistons), Aaron Nesmith (Celtics). I can see them all becoming reliable rotation guys but I predict zero all-star appearances from this batch. 

(*) Yeah back in the day I took Joel Embiid over Malcolm Brogdon....and I really like Brogdon! But I got no regrets, Embiid looked to be the better player at the time and he has become the better player in the years since. That's what I'm talking about: these rookie stats have come and gone and made no difference to anyone, this award is about tomorrow not yesterday. 

(**) I still blame Thibs. Flip Saunders (RIP) was building something and Thibs turned it into nothing.

(***) Displacement is what brought Randle to NYK (Lebron pushed him out LA and Zion pushed him out of New Orleans) seems only fitting that he's gonna push Toppin out to find his space. 

2020-21 NBA Awards (Coach of the Year)

Okay, I'll admit it: I have no idea what an NBA coach does (*). The kind of work they really do is behind the scenes, the subtle massaging of egos and the ability to properly tear grown men a new one and make it mean something. That doesn't tend to happen on the sideline during the game or at the post-game press conference, so all I see of the coaches is the shit they don't do. Strategizing to put players in their most optimal opportunities to produce is pretty much 100% of it but I don't really know what that looks like and, of course, it's success is largely dependent on the talent that is available. So...yeah....I'm totally guessing. 

Coach of the Year: Quin Snyder (Jazz). 

The Jazz have been coming for a while now and this was their season. Utah is in that weird pocket of the country that no one pays attention to (Mountain Time Zone, what?) and features a true ensemble team that rolls ten deep and gets contributions from all over. Coach Snyder isn't relying on one guy to do it all, nor is it simply a 'team concept' that follows his orders, rather it is a group of autonomous guys, any one of whom might feel like he's the star on any given night. They play loose and they have a lot of personalities and balancing all that to finish #1 in the West is impressive. 

The rest of my top ten: Doc Rivers (Sixers), Mike Malone (Nuggets), Steve Nash (Nets), Tom Thibodeau (Knicks), Tyron Lue (Clippers), Monty Williams (Suns), (and just to make it look like a top ten) Steve Kerr (Warriors), Taylor Jenkins (Grizzlies), Nate McMillan (Hawks)

Rivers working his magic with a Sixers team that has had a slow build to immense expectations was a joy to behold this year. The Sixers could've turtled up and pretended they weren't ready for another year but Rivers kept that from happening. So he's my Eastern Conference COY.

Mike Malone (Nuggets) juggles a lot of players and makes the most them once again. Nash seems like he was handed the best roster in the game but not so fast--there's a lot of weird energy on that team and he was able to keep them in line--even when they didn't show up for long stretches of time. Thibodeau has never been a favorite of mine but I think this year's roster is precisely what he's good at: getting the most out of reclamation projects (the Knicks might just be the perfect place for him). Lue was able to guide the Clippers to a quiet, understated (which is the way to go in Clipperland) 4th place finish, leaving them well-positioned for the post-season. I like Monty Williams as much as the next guy but after digging into the stats, I'd say the Paul-Booker-Ayton trio does most of the heavy lifting, so while I don't want to diss the improvement the Suns made this season, I'm not really sure Williams is the guy to credit for that.  

The also-rans: 

So while I've seen Frank Vogel (Lakers) have impressive teams in the past, this year was mostly treading water and hanging on to the last possible rung in the ladder, which was not so impressive to behold. 

Terry Stotts (Blazers) has had interesting years in the past (and some duds), but this team is so strictly on auto-pilot right now (for better and for worse), that I'm not sure he's even there on a daily basis.

Mike Budenholzer (Bucks) has a history of getting the most out of lesser rosters, but this year's Bucks team faded from the usual spot--despite being better than they've ever been! So while I think that positions them well for the post-season (oh, I'll be coming back to this in a future post!), this regular season seemed strangely anti-climactic for the team that has been coming for a while now. 

I've long been a big fan of Erik Spoelstra (Heat), but somehow the defending eastern champs never looked right to me all season long. Yeah, there were injuries and Covid-19 and all that, but I never felt like this team knew what it was, when frankly it should. The high pressure expectations of the abstraction that is "Heat Culture" sometimes overwhelm a clear identity (when it feels like it should be the opposite, right?). 

I think Brad Stevens (Celtics) is maybe the greatest coach in the biz right now (Calipari is just keeping the sideline at Rupp warm for him), but the Celtics were barely better than the Wizards this year, not even as good as the Warriors, not nearly as good as the Blazers. Why is that? I don't blame Stevens but I think he's done so much with so little for so long that the Celtics brass thinks he can just do that every year and this year proved that isn't so. The higher expectations get, the more talent he will need to command to reach those heights. The Celtics were fine this season but they've been trending up and that trend didn't hold. 

(*) OMG and European soccer coaches...I don't even know why teams have those...