2018-19 NFL (Season Review)

AFC
Way better than I thought they'd be:
Browns (7-9-1)(I said: 3-13)
Colts (10-6)(I said: 6-10)
Chargers (12-4)(I said: 7-9)

Once the Browns shed themselves off Coach Hue, they took off, man; you never really know what a coach does in football but sometimes you get those backward looks at how detrimental a coach can be on a team. I knew the Browns had built up some talent but QB Mayfield was way better than I expected (so was RB Chubb) and the defense is immature but talented. The Browns are a team to watch for next year.
The Colts were so mediocre even when Andrew Luck was healthy that I just figured it'd be tough to expect him to come off a major shoulder injury (and a year without football) and carry a so-so team in a rising division. But Luck stayed healthy and looked good and the team around looked better than I thought. The Colts are moving in the right direction, assuming the Titans stay stuck in place and the Jags re-tool, the Colts could be a major power as soon as next season. (And they could still wreak some havoc in this year's playoff)
The Chargers have been an up/down team all through the Rivers years: when they've got it working they can beat anyone; but when the offense stalls, the defense loses focus or the special teams finds a new way to disappoint, then they can lose to anyone. This year, the offense looked fine, the special teams wasn't particularly disastrous but it was the defense that impressed me. We've known for years that Rivers can win games, but now I think that defense can, too. They're arguably the best team in football, kind of a shame they got start out on the road (though their unique lack of a home field advantage has perhaps shaped them to be the quintessential vagabond squad).

Way worse than I thought they'd be:
Jags (5-11)(I said: 11-5)

Yeah, I got suckered into thinking that that defense plus Blake Bortles would be good enough. But Bortles was even worse than usual and the D disappeared completely. All the things they did so well in the playoffs last year, they didn't do well at all this year. They came out okay but after whomping the Pats in week 2, they fell off a cliff. Lucky to win five games, really, considering they apparently had crazy locker room issues and will surely be looking for a new QB, which probably means a complete rebuild.

Ones I nailed:
Dolphins (7-9)
Bills (6-10)
Ravens (10-6)
Texans (11-5)
Raiders (4-12)
A nice mix of "bad but the play hard" (Bills, Raiders), "good but they don't play like it" (Dolphins), pretty much the same team every year (Ravens) and back and forth between over- and underrated while being exactly what I thought they'd be (Texans).

Little off:
Pats (11-5)(I said: 12-4)
Jets (4-12)(I said: 2-14)
Steelers (9-6-1)(I said: 10-6)
Bengals (6-10)(I said: 7-9)
Titans (9-7)(I said: 7-9)
Chiefs (12-4)(I said: 11-5)
Broncos (6-10)(I said: 8-8)

The Pats look a little less strong but their opponents don't look any stronger, so I'm fully expecting at least one more year of Pats dominance in the AFC East.
The Jets suck. I don't dislike their new rookie QB but I didn't see much else to get excited about.
The Steelers still have moments where they look like the old school Steelers but just as often they remind you that they were always kinda half there. Personally I think they just ignore the current squabbles, run the whole squad back for one year, then move on from Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown (and LaVeon Bell? Mike Tomlin?) at the end of next year. I'd go for one more year of could-be then a full-on tear-down (at least on the offensive side).
The Bengals were actually kinda good this year. They had brutal injuries (like the Falcons) and still manage to squeeze out 6 wins, I was reasonably impressed with them and if they finally move on from Coach Lewis (oh, good god, not Hue!), I think the Bengals could be a pleasant surprise next year.

The Titans for the last few years are the most perfectly mediocre team I've ever seen. Just when you think they don't look dangerous at all, the offense gets frisky and the pass rush starts living in the backfield; but just when you think they're good, the defense dries up and the offense disappears.  They're not bad, they're not good, Mariotta is the 16th best QB in the league...all of which is exactly where you don't want to be in the NFL. I like the Titans to be right around 8-8 next year, don't you?

NFC
Way better than I thought they'd be:
Cowboys (10-6)(I said: 7-9)
Bears (12-4)(I said: 6-10)
Saints (13-3)(I said: 11-5)
Rams (13-3)(I said: 11-5)
Seahawks (10-6)(I said: 4-12)

The Cowboys were better early on than I thought they'd be and they made that Amari Cooper trade work for them (I dunno, man, that's like winning with pocket 4's: yeah, you won that time but that doesn't mean pocket 4's is a good hand). For the Cowboys it's always been about that O-line and I think that unit overachieved this year. Weird year for the Cowboys leading into a weird off-season.
The Bears took a nice step forward with Trubisky and adding Kahlil Mack was the trade of the year (of the decade?). Home playoff game? Excellent year for the Bears.
The Saints are great at home, quite a bit less great on the road. But they got the #1 seed and they're gonna be tough to beat in the post-season.
The Rams seem to have peaked early this year. They looked damn good for the first half of the season, but just pretty good down the stretch. They can hang with anyone but they don't feel like a deep squad.
The Seahawks were my biggest miss this year. I thought they'd be terrible and they were actually pretty good. Lesson learned: good coach + good QB always has a chance.

Way worse than I thought they'd be:
Vikings (9-7-1)(I said: 13-3)
Packers (6-9-1)(I said: 12-4)
Falcons (7-9)(I said: 10-6)
Panthers (7-9) (I said: 10-6)
Niners (4-12)(I said: 11-5)

Vikings, Packers and Niners were my big misfires this year. I liked the way Garapolo was winning games last year, I was impressed by the Vikings talent on both sides last year and I thought the Packers would be good enough to be a good Aaron Rodgers away from winning it all (actually that was my prediction). But, no, the Niners just aren't that talented and once Jimmy G went down, the season was effectively over. The Vikings never found any identity, just scuffled along being so-so all year long and never rose to the opportunities late in the season. And the Packers just sucked...they just sucked all year long.
I thought the Falcons and Panthers would both be better but I didn't have either making the playoffs, so they don't feel too bad; also, two totally different reasons for underperforming: Falcons had injuries early on and were spinning their wheels all year long, the whole season was a lost year while the Panthers dominated early on then inexplicably (Cam injured?) sucked down the stretch. Hard to tell how good any of these teams will be next year: Vikings had no identity, Packers had no will to play as a team, Falcons had brutal injuries, Niners were over-hyped and under-talented, Panthers just fell apart. The Packers still have Aaron Rodgers and the Niners still have a lot of youth.

Ones I nailed:
Eagles (9-7)

I didn't foresee Nick Foles coming in to replace Wentz once again, but I pretty much got the gist of their regular season. I thought they'd be up and down all year long and then sneak into the playoffs late, which is how it went down (though I thought they'd still win the division). Can they win it all again? Yeah, sure, why not?

Little off:
Redskins (7-9)(I said: 9-7)
Giants (5-11)(I said: 6-10)
Lions (6-10)(I said: 5-11)
Bucs (5-11)(I said: 3-13)
Cards (3-13)(I said: 5-11)

The Washington DC teams are like NYC teams, aren't they? They have money and expectations, they have talent and opportunity...and yet disappoint every single year. Tough year for the Redskins, losing Alex Smith puts them in the Joe Flacco lottery, no? (Hint: this is not a good move for them)
The Giants are stuck with Eli for (at least) one more year, I think. When he doesn't get sacked, he's still kinda okay and with the weapons he's got and the defense they sometimes have, that's still good enough...right? (Trick question: Eli makes bad teams good and good teams bad; they were bad this year, meaning they must move on from Eli before he makes the look good again (meaning making them bad))
Really? The Lions were actually better than I thought they'd be? Does that make any sense?
The Bucs are what the Bucs have been for years.
The Cards are rebuilding, it just took them a coupla years to realize it.


Playoff Teams Power Ranking
Saints (at home they're the best, two games at home, I'm expecting 2 wins)
Chargers (I think they're the best team in the league, not afraid to play on the road)
Chiefs (best offense, one of the crappier defenses, outscoring people is a tough way to go)
Rams (their A game is good enough to beat anyone, but they haven't played that in a while)
Pats (still top tier in offense and defense, even though my eyes tell me otherwise, can't count them out)
Seahawks (Russell Wilson is a genius of football, who knows how far he can carry this team?)
Eagles (defending champs getting hot at the right time (and in the same way))
Texans (good but not great on both sides, is two-way mediocrity gonna be good enough?)
Bears (I love that defense, still got my questions about the offense)

Colts (that QB can score on anybody)

Cowboys (frustrating but not bad)
Ravens (veteran squad but the QB is a gimmick and I can't help thinking the main reason they're here is that everyone else dropped the ball)

Any one of these teams can win it all (or lose in agonizing fashion). I find myself rooting for a Brees-Rivers Super Bowl.

2017-18 NBA Preview: Pacific Division

Warriors
PG Curry, SG Thompson, SF Durant, PF Draymond, C Pachulia
Bench: PG Livingston, SG Nick Young/Casspi, SF Iguodala, PF West, C Magee

Injuries will undoubtedly be worse this year than previous years but the depth is better than previous years too, so no worries. Strangely enough I think letting Ian Clark and James McAdoo go was not good: grooming youngsters in a culture of winning is invaluable. That said, for the foreseeable future this is still easily the best team in the league. For the regular season I think they'll be better than last year. I think they win 70 games and march through the playoffs.

Clippers
PG Rivers, SG Beverley, SF Gallinari, PF Griffin, C Jordan
Bench: PG Teodosic, SG Williams, SF Wesley Johnson/Dekker, PF Harrell/Brice Johnson, C Reed

Last year the Clippers had 9 guys that played 1200 minutes, only Jordan, Griffin and Rivers remain (and is anyone expecting Griffin to play 2000 minutes again this year?). That is still a pretty good core and I generally like this off-season's additions (they redeemed the outgoing stars with a surprisingly strong collection of newcomers), but this is clearly still a team in flux. I think the depth is better than the Clippers have perhaps ever had but Coach Doc is a guy that rides his stars, not a nimble manager of his roster: is he gonna make the most of Teodosic or Dekker or Harrell, for example? (Magic 8 Ball says 'Outlook not so good') I think the Clippers make the playoffs--and may have some post-season success--but during the regular season, W's will be harder to come by, it'll take them a while to coalesce. I think they win 43 games, which puts them in the fight for 6th place in the West.

Kings
PG Fox, SG Hield, SF Temple, PF Labissierie, C Cauley-Stein
Bench: PG Hill, SG Frank Mason/Bogdanovic, SF Vince Carter/Justin Jackson, PF Randolph, C Koufos/Papagiannis

I was astounded at how many good moves the Kings made this summer. Yeah, its still a ragtag bunch but that just gives Coach Joerger that much more control of the team (especially since he was able to bring in Zeebo and Vince to lay down the law). This season is all about how he inculcates the plethora of youngsters. I suspect early on it'll be rough sledding but by the end of the year I can see this team actually being pretty good (or a total grease fire, that's just how the league works). Bringing in George Hill and then bringing him off the bench may seem counter intuitive but I'd suggest starting Fox right away, he's the future, he may as well be the present too; and empowering Hill to mold that 2nd unit to his whims will be good for the development of the rest of the newbies. (I'd like to see Bogdanovic get a lot of playing time, too, if that kid is good he could be the franchise, might as well find out now) Man, figuring how this rotation works will be an all-year project. I think they'll win 34 games and finish strong.

Lakers
PG Ball, SG Caldwell-Pope, SF Deng, PF Nance, C Lopez
Bench: PG Ennis, SG Ingram/Clarkson/Kuzma, SF Randall/Brewer, PF Zubac, C Bogut/Zimmerman

There's a lot of intriguing talent here but they're still another year or two (and a Deng dump) away from being ready to make noise (by which I mean, luring in the next batch of free agents to lift them back to relevance). It is an interesting mix of veterans and young talent that's still growing. Not sure how it all works out, it'll take a while to get the rotation in place. Some real highs and lows ahead for this team: I suspect they'll have weeks where they look amazing and weeks where they look like the worst team in the league. I like them to be pretty good by the end of the year, I think they'll win 31 games.

Suns
PG Bledsoe, SG Booker, SF Warren, PF Chriss, C Chandler
Bench: PG Ulis, SG Millsap, SF Josh Jackson/Dudley, PF Bender, C Len/Williams

The Suns have a bunch of interesting young players, no reason to not play them as much as they can. Brandon Knight is out for the year, the depth is not great, the experience is virtually nil and I wouldn't be surprised to see them move Chandler at the deadline. I do think they'll score points, they've got plenty of guys that can fill it up, but their defensive concepts will be lackluster. Play the kids, get them minutes, collect your lottery pick and go from there. They'll be fun but they won't win much. I think they'll win 20 games.

2017-18 NBA Preview: Northwest Division

Thunder
PG Westbrook, SG George, SF Roberson, PF Melo, C Adams
Bench: PG Felton/Canaan, SG Abrines/Christon, SF Patterson/Singler, PF Grant, C Dakari

Personally I wasn't a huge fan of adding Melo; yes, I understand you'd rather have one great player rather than two okay players but when you've already got Westbrook doing 90% of the offense, I'd rather have Kanter and McDermott, I'd rather have two more braves in support than another chief to compete with my big dog. I thought adding Paul George (steal of the century!) was a brilliant move and just the thing that OKC needed to take a step forward; I think PG understands that this is Westbrook's team and I think he's cool with that. Great players either clash or fall into mutual respect. I think George and Westbrook have the mutual respect. Melo on the other hand....crashes the party. I think the the Kanter/Adams platoon was a perfect fit for the Westbrook/George offense, I love bringing in Patrick Patterson (very team friendly deal too!) and shoring up the bench by adding Ray Felton. I liked a Roberson/McDermott platoon, for a mix of offense and defense. I thought bringing in George alone vaulted them past the Spurs and probably the Rockets too. But adding Melo only complicates that. Now they've got no size off the bench (unless Dakari Johnson takes a big step forward) and less scoring on the wings (unless you think Kyle Singler is gonna make a big comeback, which I do not). But adding Melo adds wing scoring, right? Not really. If he plays with the Westbrook line then he only gets the ball when Westbrook gives it to him; you can expect McDermott to live with that, you cannot expect Melo to live with that. I still like this team to finish 2nd in the West but if you think swapping Melo for Kanter (who fit perfectly with Westbrook!) is a positive, I'm not convinced.

Wolves
PG Teague, SG Wiggins, SF Butler, PF Gibson, C Townes
Bench: PG Crawford/Jones, SG Muhammad, SF Bjelica, PF Dieng, C Aldrich/Patton

Last year when the Wolves brought in Coach Thibodeau I had my doubts; the previous year had been a fun teamwork-oriented season and while they sucked on the court, they looked like a crew that was growing together and having fun. The Thibs mindset is constant rugged hard work and defensive intensity (which clearly didn't take hold as the Wolves sucked on defense last year). This summer the Wolves pulled off a coup picking up Jimmy Butler for the oft-injured Zach LaVine and the disappointing Kris Dunn; or did they? Are we sure that LaVine wasn't run into the ground by Thibs? Are we sure that Thibs didn't give up too quick on Dunn? My suggestions at the time of the Thibs hiring was move Sam Mitchell (terrible coach but clearly liked by the players) upstairs, bring back Garnett (useless on the court but clearly respected by the players) for one more year in uniform and bring in Jeff Hornacek (smart, no-nonsense but not a hardass) to teach the gang how to play. By turning the team over to Thibs, you've made it Thibs's team not the team's team (kinda reminds me of Pitino in Boston, not the model you want to follow!). This summer they stocked up on old Thibs soldiers (Gibson, Aaron Brooks to go with Butler), basically traded Rubio for Teague (an unnecessary sideways move to my eye), and moved Bjelica, Jones and Dieng further down the depth chart without really adding depth. I dunno, man, the more I look at this the more I don't like the moves they've made since drafting Dunn in June 2016. They kept the shell but lost the heart, I think its a dangerous thing to do. But none of that matters really, its all about Towns. If he keeps up the pace he had last year then the Wolves will be vastly improved. If they don't make the playoffs this will be a disappointing campaign. 42 wins, 7th in the West.

Nuggets
PG Mudiay, SG Harris, SF Barton, PF Jokic, C Millsap
Bench: PG Nelson/Beasley, SG Murray, SF Chandler/Lyles, PF Faried/Hernangomez, C Plumlee

So much unproven talent, so many guys without clear positions, so many players I like but don't yet love, I can't figure out how to put together a lineup. Is Millsap the center or Jokic? Do you bring Harris off the bench or Barton? Can Murray play the PG? How long do they give Mudiay some run? Where does Faried fit into the lineup? And where is the playing time for Beasley and Lyles and Hernangomez? (There's pretty much no way Tyler Lydon sees the floor this year, right?) And though they're aiming for the playoffs this year, I'd keep the youth movement going: if they can figure out how to jettison Chandler, Arthur and Faried, I'd say go for it even if just brings back more youth and/or draft picks (hmmmmm.....doesn't Doc's Clippers seem like the perfect dumping ground for Chandler? And did you realize that Jokic has the smallest paycheck on this squad? That'll change next summer, I reckon). This seems like a strangely easy call: if the Nuggets are in the playoffs, Mike Malone is pretty much first choice for Coach of the Year, right? How he juggles this team will make or break the season for the Nuggets--probably next season too! I like the talent, I don't know how it all works, they've got trades to make too, and don't forget their unique home court advantage. I think they'll make the playoffs and win 46 games (but it could all go off the rails tragically too).

Jazz
PG: Rubio, SG Ingles, SF Hood, PF Favors, C Gobert
Bench: PG Mitchell/Exum/Neto, SG Johnson/Burks, SF Sefelosha/Jerebko, PF Udoh/Bolomboy, C Tony Bradley

Hmmmmm....I like the coach, I like the culture, I like depth but I'd like it all better if they'd been able to keep Hayward (and even Lyles, for that matter). Rubio and Exum are both fine distributors and defenders but neither of them can score and you've got to give that playing time to Mitchell soon enough. Behind Gobert they'll be needing to get minutes from Bradley (rookie) or Bolomboy (2nd year, basically a rookie) or Udoh (hasn't played in the NBA in a few years now). Favors is injury-prone, Sefelosha and Jerebko are not reliable scorers, doesn't feel like they have any trade options. The Jazz will need a lot from Ingles, Hood and Alec Burks to make up for the loss of Hayward. Not impossible--again, I like the coach and the vibe and generally I'm in on these players--but this team is one injury away from disappearing completely. I have them winning 42 games and sneaking that 8th spot in the playoffs.

Blazers
PG Lillard, SG McCollum, SF Turner, PF Harkless, C Nurkic
Bench: PG Napier, SG Connaughton, SF Aminu/Leonard, PF Vonleah, C Davis

Every time I look at the Blazers I'm blown away at how far over the cap they are (and badly mortgaged for the future already) and yet this still doesn't feel like a playoff team to me. This is a team, though, that could be the big surprise of the league. They've grown together, they're gonna stay together, if Lillard and McCollum are lights out (and don't get hurt!), this team could blast through this division (Wolves, Nuggets and Jazz are hardly proven commodities). But I don't see it. I think the management has an eye toward shedding salary and at the slightest misstep, they'll be making trades--and those trades are going out, not coming in. This team is on a fine line, if they'll pull together and get lucky they could be really good; but I think its more likely this blows up and gets blown up. I think they win 40 games, missed the playoffs.

2017-18 NBA Preview: Southeast Division

Wizards
PG Wall, SG Beal, SF Porter, PF Morris, C Gortat
Bench: PG Frazier/Satoransky, SG Sloan/Meeks, SF Oubre, PF Scott/McCullough C Mahinmi/Smith

God, their salary cap is maxed on 5 players (well, 4 and Ian Mahinmi), leaving very little flexibility going forward and not much scrill for bench depth. Fortunately that starting five is still capable of getting better which they'll need to be to make this a worthwhile season. I think they're still better than the Heat and I have them finishing 4th in the East with 48 wins.

Heat
PG Dragic, SG Waiters, SF Winslow, PF James Johnson, C Whiteside
Bench: PG Tyler Johnson, SG Richardson/MacGruder, SF Mickey, PF Olynyk/Adebayo, C Hammons/Haslem

This is kind of a weird team but I'm a big fan of Dragic and Coach Spoelstra, I was really impressed with how they finished last season, if they can keep that going they'll easily be a playoff team (and be a dangerous foe for the Celtics in round 2!). That said, I still can't get over how weird this team is. 48 wins and 5th in the East.

Hornets
PG Kemba, SG Monk, SF Williams, PF Batum, C Howard
Bench: PG Carter-Williams, SG Lamb, SF Kidd-Gilchrist, PF Kaminsky/Zeller

Ah, the Hornets. So let's run it down: I've never thought much of Dwight Howard (10 years in the league and offensively he's still a project), Kemba Walker (helluva scorer but not enough on his own to carry a team), Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (I love his energy but I never quite knew what his game is), Marvin Williams (this guy being a classic 3-and-D guy is a pipe dream), Cody Zeller (nice rotation guy but not a top 5 pick talent), Frank Kaminsky (smart but slow, ineffective in the long run), Michael Carter-Williams (no real instinct for the game, a non-scorer out there), Malik Monk (oh, he'll have big games but he'll disappear too), Jeremy Lamb (....he's just not any good), Coach Clifford (well-respected around the league but I never really understood why) and GM Michael Jordan (I'm not at all convinced that he is a good judge of talent or has any sense of overall strategy in roster building). Sounds like a disaster waiting to happen, right? No! I actually kinda love this team! I feel like the interplay between Kemba and Howard can open up opportunities for MKG, Zeller, Kaminsky and Monk and as long as MCW just protects the ball I think he can fit in just fine off the bench. And if Coach Cliff can keep Howard in the game plan, he'll have plenty of weapons to make the most of (curious to see what he gets out Treveon Graham and Dwayne Bacon). They'll have ups and downs but if the Wizards or Heat stumble, I honestly think the Hornets can make a jump. I have them 7th in the East with 43 wins.

Magic
PG Payton, SG Fournier, SF Ross, PF Gordon, C Vucevic
Bench: PG Mack/Augustin, SG Simmons/Afflalo, SF Ross/Hezonja/Rudez, PF Speights/Isaac, C Biyombo

Hmmm....this is another weird collection of players. Not sure how they fit together, not sure what Magic management is going for, not sure who will still be there at the end of the year (oh, yeah, they definitely have trades to make). If this team overachieves at all seems like Coach Vogel would be a good Coach of the Year candidate because this is a team that needs some coaching, some top-down structure. Last year they won 29 games, I think this team will be better though probably not a huge stride forward. I think they'll win 33 games (firmly in lottery territory). (Is Vogel a good enough coach to build around? If they move on from Payton, Gordon, etc., will that signal that Vogel is gone too or that he's juiced in for the long term?)

Hawks
PG Schroder, SG Belineli, SF Bazemore, PF Prince, C Dedmon
Bench: PG Delaney/Dorsey, SG Evans, SF Ilyasova/Bembry, PF Muscala/Collins, C Plumlee

The Hawks have devolved so much in the last 2-3 years that I don't even know who they are these days. I don't understand their direction, I don't understand their roster, I don't understand their strategy. I like what I've seen of Taurean Prince, should be plenty of room for Deandre Dembry and John Collins to get some time, kinda curious to see if Tyler Dorsey can play at the next level. Schroder leaves me cold, Belinelli is a nice shooter but not much else, Bazemore is getting a star paycheck but is not a star player, Dedmon and Plumlee and Ilyasova might turn out to be worthwhile trade bait and as much praise as Coach Budenholzer accumulates, he looks like a coach that wins with good players and loses with bad ones. Hawks fans ought to keep an eye on the NCAA, that's where their future is. 22 wins.

2017-18 NBA Preview: Atlantic Division

Celtics
PG Kyrie, SG Smart, SF Hayward, PF Marcus Morris, C Horford
Bench: PG Rozier/Larkin, SF Brown/Tatum, PF C Baynes

The Celtics finally made all those moves we've been waiting for all these years. And they were huge.  In: Kyrie, Hayward, Marcus Morris; Out: Isiah Thomas (as beloved a Boston sports figure as there has been lately), Jae Crowder, Avery Bradley, Kelly Olynyk, Amir Johnson, Jonas Jerebko. The Celtics of recent vintage have a featured a lot of nice players that played their small parts; but that depth isn't there any more. Off the bench is a lot of untested Rooks: Yabusele, Ojelewe, Nader, Holmes, Williams, (everyone loves 2nd round picks....til they start filling out your bench), in addition to Jaysun Tatum (who should get regular rotation action right away). I like the talent up top, I love Coach Stevens and while the expectations are higher than ever, I can't help feeling like they are one Kyrie injury away from being in a bad spot (how deep they going with Shane Larkin?). Oh well, I like them to finish tops in the East with 58 wins.

Raptors
PG Lowry, SG DeRozan, SF Miles , PF Ibaka, C Valenciunas
Bench: PG Van Vleet, SG Wright/McDaniels, SF Powell/Anunoby, PF Poetl/Caboclo/Siakam, C Noquiera/Meeks

The way this team got smoked by the Cavs in the playoffs last year was kinda sad. But all they can do is run it back. My guess is they come out hot, challenge for 1st in the East for much of the year...and then get smoked by the Cavs again in the playoffs. *sigh* Man, they really are committed to that starting five (and I suspect they'll wrap up Powell as their 6th man going forward), so grinding and hoping they get lucky against Lebron is where this team is at for the next few years. I kinda like the depth of this team but all that is entirely in support to Lowry and DeRozan, those two must stay healthy for the Raptors to be any good at all. I'll go ahead and assume them to be healthy enough to get it done. I like them to finish 2nd in the East with 54 wins.

Sixers
PG Fultz, SG Redick, SF Simmons, PF Saric, C Embiid
Bench: PG McConnell/Bayless, SG Stauskus/Anderson, SF Covington/Luwawu, PF Jahlil Okafor/Humphries/Holmes, C Johnson/Emeka Okafor

Process 2.0 is about to get started. The Sixers have been sacrificing W's in service of hoarding toys like a fat kid after Xmas but now the toy box is full and its time to play. They've augmented the rookies (Fultz, Simmons, Korkmaz) and the other youngsters (Stauskus, Okafor, Saric, Anderson, Luwawau, Holmes still on rookie contracts) with a handful of vets (Redick, Bayless, Humphries, Emeka Okafor (Emeka Okafor?!?!), Amir Johhnson) to season the serving. Okay, how are they gonna be? I dunno. Embiid showed that he can play, Saric showed the he can play, Okafor showed he can play (but everyone somehow never saw what I saw), and I think Stauskus, McConnell, Anderson and Luwawu can be effective in limited play, throw in those veterans and this is a pretty good team. Just a matter of how all the pieces fit together. I think they're in the hunt for the 8th spot at year's end (I don't think they get it), with 36 wins.

Knicks
PG Nikilitina, SG Hardaway, SF Beasley, PF Porzingis, C Kanter
Bench: PG Jack/Baker, SG Sessions/Dotson, SF McDermott/Kuzminkas, PF Noah/Hernangomez, C O'Quinn

First take on Knick PG's: am I rude for thinking that Nikilitina is the poor man's Tony Parker, Jack is the poor man's Kemba Walker and Ron Baker is the poor man's TJ McConnell? First take on Knick SG's: they're all PG's, aren't they? Do they have any scorers? First take on Knick SF's: a coupla reclamation projects and a youngster happy to get out from under Melo's shadow. Getting rid of Melo didn't make this team better or worse, strangely enough. I think Porzingis is free to do whatever he wants, hope for the best for young Nikilitina, and I expect the Knicks to match last year's W total: 31.

Nets
PG Russell, SG Crabbe, SF LaVert, PF Hollis-Jefferson, C Mozgov
Bench: PG Lin/Harris, SG Whitehead/Dinwiddie, SF Booker/Acy, PF Carroll, C Zeller/Allen

This is D'Angelo Russell's team now, I expect Jarrett Allen to get regular playing time by the end of the year and I expect plenty of time for LaVert and Hollis-Jefferson and Whitehead because...well...why not? (Hmmm, think they'd like to have Kyle Kuzma right now, too?)  They're in on Crabbe and Mozgov for the next 3 years but otherwise they're starting to get their cap flexibility back. If Coach Atkinson gets them to play hard and build that culture around Russell/Allen/LeVert/Hollis-Jefferson by next summer they'll be in the hunt for some good free agents. I think they'll win 27 games.

2017-18 NBA Preview: Central Division

Cavaliers
PG Isiah, SG Wade, SF Lebron, PF Love, C Thompson
Bench: PG Rose/Felder, SG Smith/Shumpert, SF Korver/Green/Jefferson, PF Crowder/Osman, C Perkins/Zizic

With Isiah injured to start the season (not back until after Xmas at the earliest, right?), I guess they'll have to see what they can get out of Derrick Rose and Kay Felder for a while; I like them both a lot better coming off the bench but they're going to get their starter minutes out of the way early. Word is they'll experiment with Love at center and bring Thompson off the bench, to make room for Crowder at the PF. (Surely they're not going to have to start Perk, right? Run the first play of the game for him and hang his drawings on the refrigerator?) This is a weird collection of old dudes: I've thought Wade and Rose were done for a while now, I was not at all impressed with Korver or Jefferson last year, if Smith gets grumpy his decline could be loud and proud, I've never been enamored with Shumpert. Strangely enough I think Jeff Green fits this team just fine: he'll have a good game off the bench every coupla weeks which is all they really need from him. I'm curious to see if Osman and Zizic will be any good but I doubt they'll play much (Zizic could turn out to be the steal of the Kyrie trade, but he'll likely have to move on to another team before we find out). But Lebron is Lebron and that's why the Cavs will be good. That said, I only have them finishing 3rd in the East this year with 52 wins.

Bucks
PG Brogdon, SG Middleton, SF Antetekounpo, PF Jabari, C Monroe
Bench: PG Dellevadova/Payton, SG Vaughn/Terry/Rush, SF Green/Snell/Teletovic, PF Henson, C Maker

Man, that starting five is pretty tasty, huh? All the better if Maker is ready to be a rock down low. I like Brogdon as much as the next guy but he's pretty much a finished product, I don't think he gets much better; Middleton and Jabari have had major injuries in the last coupla years and as much as I like them I'm not sure how reliable they can be going forward; the Bucks have never quite figure out what to do with Monroe or Henson. So its pretty much up to Giannis to carry this team as far as they'll go. I do love Giannis (most exciting player to watch in the whole league?) but that's a tall order even for him. I'm curious to see how Maker comes along this year and if Vaughn is ready to be a big contributor. The Bucks should be fun, only injuries hold them back, but I don't think there's enough to compete with Lebron or the Celtics just yet. I have the Bucks winning 47 games.

Pistons
PG Reggie Jax, SG Bradley, SF Stanley Johnson, PF Harris C Drummond
Bench: PG Ish/Udrih, SG Galloway/Kennard, SF Bullock/Ellenson, PF Leuer, C Boban

I dunno, I just don't get what Stan Van is doing in Detroit. I like bringing Avery Bradley, I don't mind letting go of Morris or KCP, but Galloway as the big off-season signing and Kennard as the exciting draft pick don't get me too jazzed up. Will the trade rumors be hanging over Reggie Jax all year long? Is that bench good enough to get to 8th in the East? Is Ellenson ready to play? I dunno. I just don't know what I'm looking at. That said, from my perspective the Pistons have been perennial over-achievers. So while I really don't like the look of this roster, I have them getting the 8th spot with 37 wins.

Pacers
PG Collison, SG Oladipo, SF Stephenson, PF Young, C Turner
Bench: PG Joseph, SG Bogdanovic, SF Robinson/Uthoff, PF Sabonis/Big Al/Leaf, C Anigbogu

This is the island of misfit toys team. Collison could be the top 2nd string PG in the league, not sure he's good for all those starter minutes. Oladipo is a nice player but doesn't seem to be much more than that. Stephenson was always a cipher, which worked fine in the Vogel days when the Pacers were a defensive juggernaut but nowadays, they're trying to be a run-and-gun offense, I don't see what Lance gives them. Young is a nice player but not much more than that. Myles Turner is the stud they're building around. Joseph is nice off the bench, Bogdanovic can knock down corner 3's (but not much else), Robinson, Uthoff, Leaf and Anigbogu are probably not ready for the amount of minutes they're gonna get. And as much as I love Big Al, not sure he's of too much help trying to score points off the bench. They've got a lot of nice players but no big stars and not enough consistency to be terribly effective. Their best bet is to try to groom these guys as trade bait. I like them to win 34 games.

Bulls
PG Dunn, SG LaVine, SF Zipser, PF Mirotic, C Lopez
Bench: PG Grant/Payne, SG Pondexter/Eddie, SF Portis, PF Markenen, C Felicio/Stone

How can a team so young have so many cast-offs? Dunn (Wolves), LaVine (Wolves), Payne (Thunder), Grant (Knicks), Stone (Clippers/Hawks), Nwaba (Lakers) have accumulated 9 years of service between them, less then 1.5 on average and yet all are on to their next teams. Also how many young PG's (Koenig, Valentine, Dunn, Holiday, Grant, Payne) does a team need? I thought this team was a mess last year but at least they had veterans, this team is just a mess. They've got a pile of guys with team options (Dunn, Payne, Grant, Portis, Valentine, Mirotic), they get a last look at LaVine before he goes to free agency and they've still got figure out what they've got with Markanen and Zipser. This year is just about talent evaluation. Great! A whole year of scrimmages ahead for the Bulls. They could be a truly awful--is there a 'process' at work or do they just stink? I have them winning 20 games but they could go way under that.

Olympics Preview

Oh right...I hate the Olympics.

NBA Preview (West)

Warriors (61 wins). I'm not trying be that guy but the Warriors did enjoy a great deal of luck last year. They deserved to win, they were just about perfect last season, and while they're still one of the tippity-toppity best teams in the league, it is unrealistic to think they'll breeze their way to back to back championships. I still have them finishing 1st in the West but I just can't see them being as good as last year. Coach Kerr is unlikely to start the season on the bench, all you need to show that their stellar health last season (even their one injury was providential!) cannot be repeated. How they respond to a normal amount of injuries will determine just how dominant they can be.

Rockets (59). I've been skeptical of the James Harden model (one unbelievably efficient ball dominant player that does everything) but perhaps my skepticism is just for the playoffs. In the regular season I think that can be successful, especially when the Rockets have upgraded the supporting cast with very little effort. This is a really solid team all around. Look for Motiejunas, Jones, Capela and McDaniels to each take a step forward, look for the veterans to be all veteran-y (Lawson, Howard, Ariza, Terry, Brewer, Beverley), look for their incoming rooks (Dekker, Harrel) to get their moments to shine. That's pretty good stuff, man. I think they'll win a lot of games this year and Harden will be a top 3 MVP candidate.

Thunder (57). I think KD wins the MVP, I think Westbrook plays even angrier than usual, I think Ibaka's role might net him a 6th Man Award, I think Coach Donovan juggles the supporting cast well enough for this machine to hum along. I think they are painfully aware of what they've left on the table the last coupla years and that this may be the last hurrah and I think they bring it from the gitty and bury people all year long. I fear, though, they may be worn out come playoff time.

Spurs (55). I was a bit skeptical of the addition of Lamarcus Aldridge: while he's definitely a legit badass scorer, I wasn't convinced that his game would blend seamlessly with the Spur style. But, who am I kidding? He's a badass player and this is a team that knows how to make the most of badass players. They may fumble for a little while but by the all-star break this team will be rounding into seriously dangerous form. Indeed, bringing in Aldridge and West should ease the load on Tony Parker (I think he'll be better this year than he's been in a while) and Manu (he looked good in pre-season). I have them coming into the playoffs in 4th place, just enough below the radar to feel like the underdog.

Clippers (54). Chris Paul is a great (regular season) PG, Blake Griffin has really come into his own recently as the dominant offensive force we all knew he was going to be, Deandre Jordan should've won DPOY last year (and I think he will this year), Paul Pierce still has plenty of run left in him, JJ Reddick is one of the sharpest shooters in the league, Lance Stephenson desperately needs success to restore his image, Josh Smith too, Jamal Crawford is still one of the finest bench players in the league (and probably irked about the trade rumors that swirled around him all summer), Austin Rivers wants to show that he's more than just his father's son, even Pablo Prigioni is a sneaky good control freak off the bench. Man, gonna be a serious disappointment when they get run by the Spurs in the 1st round (yeah, Clippers gonna Clip).

Grizzlies (51). I kinda love the Grizzlies, I love the players, love the ethic, and they're still just one trade away from being a seriously dangerous team even in the West. But I'm not seeing the improvement, I'm only seeing the slow deterioration. (How do they get Melo? Oh yeah: they don't) I'm all in on the Gasol-Zeebo-Conley-Allen quartet but I'm still not in on any of the rest of that roster. Four really good players just won't be good enough to win a playoff series in the West. Indeed, they're a trade or two away from getting usurped by the Pelicans.

Pelicans (48). I adore Anthony Davis and I appreciate that the Pelican brass has desperately tried to wheel and deal him some teammates right now. But their efforts have left the cupboard pretty bare. That said, AD is good enough to bring the team along even if the team itself doesn't really want to. Evans is probably out til New Year's and Ajinca, Asik and Pondexter will probably also be in and out of the lineup early on. That's putting a lot of pressure on the oft-injured Holliday, the overrated Gordon and a bench that leaves a lot to be desired. Oh well, Davis is good enough to elevate this bunch at least more than their near rivals can rise. I like the Pelicans to get up to 7th this year (one more year for the salary cap to go up and for Eric Gordon's ruinous contract to finally disappear; one more year til they finally get Davis the help he needs/deserves).

Suns (41). Okay, I admit it: I'm a sucker for the Suns. I (still) think Eric Bledsoe is the next great NBA badass, I think Branden Knight is one of the most underappreciated PG's in the league, I think Devin Booker has a decent shot at ROY, I think Alex Len and TJ Warren are ready to blossom, I think this team is gonna score, score, score and while I didn't really get the Tyson Chandler signing, I think he's a good player and he'll give them a hint of defensive backbone they otherwise wouldn't have had. I don't trust the Suns upper management, the culture seems a little putrid there, so a mid-season upgrade is probably not coming. But I like the squad they've got on the court, at least enough to get past the Jazz for the right to be the sacrificial lamb to the Warriors.

Jazz (40). High on my League Pass rankings, love watching the young talent and this team is well stocked in such. I like the coach, I like the culture, I like their direction, I like the youth (except for Trey Burke), I think they'll be better than last year. But I think they're still another year away from getting some playoff run. (Keep an eye on Trey Lyles, a sneaky ROY pick, I think that kid can really play and as he gets used to the pro game, he could be really really good)

Kings (38). A lotta talent, a lotta mess. I think Cousins is a great (GREAT) player, Gay is a shockingly efficient player, Rondo is a no-nonsense leader and the supporting cast improved (a little) over the summer. But I still don't think they'll be very good. They'll have moments, they'll have good streaks (14 W's in 19 games) and bad streaks (2 W's in the next 19 games), they'll be competitive into the 4th quarter, they'll be a tough out, they'll sting the sleeping teams but they won't beat the teams that bring their best game. They'll be okay, they won't be laughably bad but they won't make the playoffs.

Mavs (33). I think the Mavs are really in a bad way right now, I'm only taking them to win this many games because of inertia: they're used to winning a lot of games and so they'll keep winning like a chicken with its head cut off. Their 1st round pick next year belongs to the Celtics; its top 7 protected, so they are incentivized to blow it up but Coach Carlisle ain't a tank commander (though he does have a lucrative extension awaiting him), Dirk gets nothing out of losing and even though Cuban understands the business of the game, he's too entrenched with those guys to force them to walk the plank. So I think the Mavs will be pretty terrible but will still pull out more games in the 4th quarter than you think they oughta.

Blazers (31). I was dubious of the early summer projections of Aldridge to the Spurs, I kept thinking he'd return to the Blazers. In that light, I thought their off-season was actually pretty good: Davis/Plumlee replace Lopez, Henderson replaces Afflalo, Aminu replaces Batum, Harkless replaces Matthews. I know, I know, its not great but if you keep Aldridge, its not such a drop off and the change may have been invigorating. But they didn't keep Aldridge, so the moves just look desperate and weak. But if Lillard has a big year (very possible) then the Blazers shouldn't be awful. The salad days have passed but the 'rebuilding' period ahead doesn't look too dire (and if the Mavs and Kings flail, the Blazers might even be fighting for the 8th spot).

Lakers (27). The Lakers (like the Knicks) almost have to be much better than last year. While I wasn't a huge fan of their off-season moves, this year's roster is clearly better than last year's. Russell and Randle are the future (or are they Melo bait?), all else is just upgraded filler. (Personally, I think Kobe will be playing in 2016-17 and probably not for the Lakers, just wanted to get that on the record)

Wolves (23). Sorry to hear about the passing of Flip Saunders, shame to see he won't see the flowering of the seeds he's planted. This team is still a year or two (throw in another good lottery pick) from being good, but the core of young talent is intriguing. Gonna be a great League Pass team all year long but I don't see them gutting out too many wins in the West.

Nuggets (17). All about Mudiay and whatever they can get for Faried. Otherwise, not much to see here. Easily the worst team in the West.