Way better than I thought they'd be:
Browns (7-9-1)(I said: 3-13)
Colts (10-6)(I said: 6-10)
Chargers (12-4)(I said: 7-9)
Once the Browns shed themselves off Coach Hue, they took off, man; you never really know what a coach does in football but sometimes you get those backward looks at how detrimental a coach can be on a team. I knew the Browns had built up some talent but QB Mayfield was way better than I expected (so was RB Chubb) and the defense is immature but talented. The Browns are a team to watch for next year.
The Colts were so mediocre even when Andrew Luck was healthy that I just figured it'd be tough to expect him to come off a major shoulder injury (and a year without football) and carry a so-so team in a rising division. But Luck stayed healthy and looked good and the team around looked better than I thought. The Colts are moving in the right direction, assuming the Titans stay stuck in place and the Jags re-tool, the Colts could be a major power as soon as next season. (And they could still wreak some havoc in this year's playoff)
The Chargers have been an up/down team all through the Rivers years: when they've got it working they can beat anyone; but when the offense stalls, the defense loses focus or the special teams finds a new way to disappoint, then they can lose to anyone. This year, the offense looked fine, the special teams wasn't particularly disastrous but it was the defense that impressed me. We've known for years that Rivers can win games, but now I think that defense can, too. They're arguably the best team in football, kind of a shame they got start out on the road (though their unique lack of a home field advantage has perhaps shaped them to be the quintessential vagabond squad).
Way worse than I thought they'd be:
Jags (5-11)(I said: 11-5)
Yeah, I got suckered into thinking that that defense plus Blake Bortles would be good enough. But Bortles was even worse than usual and the D disappeared completely. All the things they did so well in the playoffs last year, they didn't do well at all this year. They came out okay but after whomping the Pats in week 2, they fell off a cliff. Lucky to win five games, really, considering they apparently had crazy locker room issues and will surely be looking for a new QB, which probably means a complete rebuild.
Ones I nailed:
Dolphins (7-9)
Bills (6-10)
Ravens (10-6)
Texans (11-5)
Raiders (4-12)
A nice mix of "bad but the play hard" (Bills, Raiders), "good but they don't play like it" (Dolphins), pretty much the same team every year (Ravens) and back and forth between over- and underrated while being exactly what I thought they'd be (Texans).
Little off:
Pats (11-5)(I said: 12-4)
Jets (4-12)(I said: 2-14)
Steelers (9-6-1)(I said: 10-6)
Bengals (6-10)(I said: 7-9)
Titans (9-7)(I said: 7-9)
Chiefs (12-4)(I said: 11-5)
Broncos (6-10)(I said: 8-8)
The Pats look a little less strong but their opponents don't look any stronger, so I'm fully expecting at least one more year of Pats dominance in the AFC East.
The Jets suck. I don't dislike their new rookie QB but I didn't see much else to get excited about.
The Steelers still have moments where they look like the old school Steelers but just as often they remind you that they were always kinda half there. Personally I think they just ignore the current squabbles, run the whole squad back for one year, then move on from Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown (and LaVeon Bell? Mike Tomlin?) at the end of next year. I'd go for one more year of could-be then a full-on tear-down (at least on the offensive side).
The Bengals were actually kinda good this year. They had brutal injuries (like the Falcons) and still manage to squeeze out 6 wins, I was reasonably impressed with them and if they finally move on from Coach Lewis (oh, good god, not Hue!), I think the Bengals could be a pleasant surprise next year.
The Titans for the last few years are the most perfectly mediocre team I've ever seen. Just when you think they don't look dangerous at all, the offense gets frisky and the pass rush starts living in the backfield; but just when you think they're good, the defense dries up and the offense disappears. They're not bad, they're not good, Mariotta is the 16th best QB in the league...all of which is exactly where you don't want to be in the NFL. I like the Titans to be right around 8-8 next year, don't you?
Way better than I thought they'd be:
Cowboys (10-6)(I said: 7-9)
Bears (12-4)(I said: 6-10)
Saints (13-3)(I said: 11-5)
Rams (13-3)(I said: 11-5)
Seahawks (10-6)(I said: 4-12)
The Cowboys were better early on than I thought they'd be and they made that Amari Cooper trade work for them (I dunno, man, that's like winning with pocket 4's: yeah, you won that time but that doesn't mean pocket 4's is a good hand). For the Cowboys it's always been about that O-line and I think that unit overachieved this year. Weird year for the Cowboys leading into a weird off-season.
The Bears took a nice step forward with Trubisky and adding Kahlil Mack was the trade of the year (of the decade?). Home playoff game? Excellent year for the Bears.
The Saints are great at home, quite a bit less great on the road. But they got the #1 seed and they're gonna be tough to beat in the post-season.
The Rams seem to have peaked early this year. They looked damn good for the first half of the season, but just pretty good down the stretch. They can hang with anyone but they don't feel like a deep squad.
The Seahawks were my biggest miss this year. I thought they'd be terrible and they were actually pretty good. Lesson learned: good coach + good QB always has a chance.
Way worse than I thought they'd be:
Vikings (9-7-1)(I said: 13-3)
Packers (6-9-1)(I said: 12-4)
Falcons (7-9)(I said: 10-6)
Panthers (7-9) (I said: 10-6)
Niners (4-12)(I said: 11-5)
Vikings, Packers and Niners were my big misfires this year. I liked the way Garapolo was winning games last year, I was impressed by the Vikings talent on both sides last year and I thought the Packers would be good enough to be a good Aaron Rodgers away from winning it all (actually that was my prediction). But, no, the Niners just aren't that talented and once Jimmy G went down, the season was effectively over. The Vikings never found any identity, just scuffled along being so-so all year long and never rose to the opportunities late in the season. And the Packers just sucked...they just sucked all year long.
I thought the Falcons and Panthers would both be better but I didn't have either making the playoffs, so they don't feel too bad; also, two totally different reasons for underperforming: Falcons had injuries early on and were spinning their wheels all year long, the whole season was a lost year while the Panthers dominated early on then inexplicably (Cam injured?) sucked down the stretch. Hard to tell how good any of these teams will be next year: Vikings had no identity, Packers had no will to play as a team, Falcons had brutal injuries, Niners were over-hyped and under-talented, Panthers just fell apart. The Packers still have Aaron Rodgers and the Niners still have a lot of youth.
Ones I nailed:
Eagles (9-7)
I didn't foresee Nick Foles coming in to replace Wentz once again, but I pretty much got the gist of their regular season. I thought they'd be up and down all year long and then sneak into the playoffs late, which is how it went down (though I thought they'd still win the division). Can they win it all again? Yeah, sure, why not?
Little off:
Redskins (7-9)(I said: 9-7)
Giants (5-11)(I said: 6-10)
Lions (6-10)(I said: 5-11)
Bucs (5-11)(I said: 3-13)
Cards (3-13)(I said: 5-11)
The Washington DC teams are like NYC teams, aren't they? They have money and expectations, they have talent and opportunity...and yet disappoint every single year. Tough year for the Redskins, losing Alex Smith puts them in the Joe Flacco lottery, no? (Hint: this is not a good move for them)
The Giants are stuck with Eli for (at least) one more year, I think. When he doesn't get sacked, he's still kinda okay and with the weapons he's got and the defense they sometimes have, that's still good enough...right? (Trick question: Eli makes bad teams good and good teams bad; they were bad this year, meaning they must move on from Eli before he makes the look good again (meaning making them bad))
Really? The Lions were actually better than I thought they'd be? Does that make any sense?
The Bucs are what the Bucs have been for years.
The Cards are rebuilding, it just took them a coupla years to realize it.
Playoff Teams Power Ranking
Saints (at home they're the best, two games at home, I'm expecting 2 wins)
Chargers (I think they're the best team in the league, not afraid to play on the road)
Chiefs (best offense, one of the crappier defenses, outscoring people is a tough way to go)
Rams (their A game is good enough to beat anyone, but they haven't played that in a while)
Pats (still top tier in offense and defense, even though my eyes tell me otherwise, can't count them out)
Seahawks (Russell Wilson is a genius of football, who knows how far he can carry this team?)
Eagles (defending champs getting hot at the right time (and in the same way))
Texans (good but not great on both sides, is two-way mediocrity gonna be good enough?)
Bears (I love that defense, still got my questions about the offense)
Colts (that QB can score on anybody)
Cowboys (frustrating but not bad)Ravens (veteran squad but the QB is a gimmick and I can't help thinking the main reason they're here is that everyone else dropped the ball)
Any one of these teams can win it all (or lose in agonizing fashion). I find myself rooting for a Brees-Rivers Super Bowl.
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