Two years ago the Suns came out of nowhere to challenge for a playoff spot in the West though they were predicted to be an easy lottery candidate in the pre-season. Then they let Channing Frye walk, signed Isiah Thomas for no apparent reason, panic-traded Goran Dragic and Isiah Thomas, pissed off the Morris twins, signed Tyson Chandler to big money and left Jeff Hornacek holding the bag. They turned a promising season into a shit storm and if there was any justice in this world, that entire front office would be treated like Stalin's enemies of the state. Last season they fired Hornacek's entire staff, then a month later fired Hornacek himself....with no one left to take over. *smh* The Suns were so close to being interesting, if not good, and they've since done absolutely everything wrong. And with the emergence of Devin Booker, the front office will undoubtedly turn a bright spot into a storm cloud.
The starting five as of now looks something like PG Bledsoe, SG Booker, SF Tucker, PF Warren, C Chandler with Knight, Goodwin, Len off the bench. I assume that either Bledsoe or Knight will get moved this summer (hell, maybe both?) which will bring back some kind of depth. Getting out from under Tyson Chandler's massively expensive contract (why did them sign him?) would be a godsend but I don't see that happening. I don't dislike that starting five (personally I think Bledsoe could still be the next big star in the league and Booker seems well on his way too) but its hard to see them making the playoffs or doing anything at all if they got there.
The Suns hold #4,#13,#28,#34 in the upcoming draft. Given that they have a nice but not great rotation right now, one suspects that rather than packaging those picks for something, they'll look to bring in four new recruits. I'm rooting for Jamal Murray at #4 and Tyler Ulis at #34, just to deepen the Kentucky vibe in the back court. #13 might fetch them the guy that I think is the most hit/miss in the whole draft: Brice Johnson, who might be the second coming of PJ Brown (not at all a bad thing) or he might be out of the league in 2 years. If Johnson's there at #13, I think the Suns ought to give him a shot. #28 could bring UNLV's Stephen Zimmerman, the intriguing Thon Maker or perhaps the rumored-to-be-injured Denzel Valentine falls to them there. Either way I think they've got a shot at bringing in four intriguing, if not really good, players.
Or they could package Branden Knight, Tyson Chandler, #4 and #34 for Demarcus Cousins. Or how about getting in a 3-way that brings Kevin Love to Phoenix, Carmelo to Cleveland and a raft of picks to NYK? (Pointless trade idea: Tyson Chandler and #4 for Nerlens Noel: Philly loves draft picks, has money to spend and could use some veteran presence; Phoenix needs to get rid of Chandler and Nerlens played for John Calipari like the rest of the Suns roster. Just a thought) They've definitely got pieces to move or they might just stand pat with their four picks. Depends on whether they think there's a win-now kinda deal out there for them or if they want to just let things marinate with new coach Earl Watson.
Who knows what the Suns are thinking? It wasn't that long ago that they had a lineup of Dragic, Bledsoe, the Morris twins and Len with a legit Coach of the Year candidate. They screwed up all that was good about that situation, so I have no idea what they'll do from here. They have the potential for any number of blockbuster deals or they could stand pat with their 4 draft picks and too many PGs. Right now, I think the Suns are nowhere near #8 in the West but deals are out there that could make them a lot better this summer. We'll see.
Showing posts with label observations. Show all posts
Showing posts with label observations. Show all posts
Thursday, June 16, 2016
Sunday, May 22, 2016
Minnesota T-Wolves Observations
The Wolves are sitting pretty. They feature back-to-back ROY winners leading a host of young talent, a brand new badass coach to whip the kids into shape, the farewell season (I mean, right?) of a local legend and the legacy of Coach Flip is becoming a beautiful rainbow rather than a gloomy storm cloud. And they've got the #5 in the upcoming draft--everything's coming up Timberwolf!
Right now the projected starting lineup would probably be: C Dieng, PF Towns, SF Wiggins, SG LaVine, PG Rubio with Muhammad, Pekovic, Payne, Bjelica, #5 pick and Jones off the bench (let's assume Garnett is the highest paid assistant coach in the league and not a proper rotation player, although I do expect him to start and get something in the 5-10 MPG range). Not bad, that team should already be in the hunt for a playoff spot in the West and that's if they do nothing at all. But they still have something like $30m in cap space and 4 roster spots to fill.
For GM Layden/Thibodeau there is one glaring loose tooth on that roster: Nikola Pekovic has 2yrs/$23.7m left on his deal. Pekovic is an injury-prone leftover from a different time in Wolves history, now he's still a solid scorer in the lane but hard to imagine the Wolves envision him in their future. If he can play, fine, he becomes another helpful veteran off the bench; but if he can't, they have to figure out how to move him (can he be traded to Italy or Spain? China in the mix for that contract?). As for the #5 pick, I think Buddy Hield is perfect for the Wolves and could be there at #5: a 5th year senior, he's a little more mature and should be ready to step in and be a solid scorer right away, more youth movement but hopefully he can fast track to the rest of the crew.
Free agents I think they should focus on: Luol Deng (hard working veteran that's good all over the place, great role model for the kids, a former Thibs soldier, do they want to reunite?), Khris Humphries (not great but he's really good at what he does, will play hard for 10-15 MPG, another vet for the kids to keep an eye on), Courtney Lee (depending on who they get with that #5 pick, Lee could be the hard working nice guy that brings scoring off the bench). Not exactly top of the line guys, huh? Shouldn't they push for Durant? No, dude, they don't need any of that stuff. This team needs steady vets that can be relied upon do their part, smart guys that will support the youth movement. Reinventing this squad or making a big splashy move is not necessary with this team, so I'd skip all that, stay under the radar, accumulate smart hungry veterans.
Coaching-wise Thib's first duty is also clear: turn LaVine and Payne into defensive standouts and, man, the Wolves instantly vault into top 5 in the West (where they might be vaulting anyway). This team is already pretty good, for the most part Thibs just needs to mold them into shape. But the here-and-now improvement that Thibs could produce would be making LaVine a more reliable player (I'd start with his D, improve that and you can live with his inconsistent offense) and getting something out of Payne (telling you, man, I haven't given up on the dude, if Thibs can reach him, then the Wolves can blow up right now). Shabazz Muhammad is still in limbo mode: if he produces, keep him; if not, move on him along. (Pekovic and Muhammad likely to become their trade deadline options)
Ricky Rubio still has 3 years left on his deal and I think the Wolves should utilize him rather than try to move him. Personally I like Ricky Rubio, his offensive deficiencies could be mitigated by adding a solid scorer in Buddy Hield, a reliable wing player in Luol Deng and a move toward a fast break offense cued by upgraded defense. I kinda like a pass-first PG to go with all these youngsters and if Thibs can crank up the D, the offense will either flow better or become less important. That said, Rubio is the most likely part of the program to falter and become untenable. If Rubio works, Wolves will improve greatly; if Rubio doesn't work, they become desperate to trade him and flail badly (not likely but could happen).
Right now the projected starting lineup would probably be: C Dieng, PF Towns, SF Wiggins, SG LaVine, PG Rubio with Muhammad, Pekovic, Payne, Bjelica, #5 pick and Jones off the bench (let's assume Garnett is the highest paid assistant coach in the league and not a proper rotation player, although I do expect him to start and get something in the 5-10 MPG range). Not bad, that team should already be in the hunt for a playoff spot in the West and that's if they do nothing at all. But they still have something like $30m in cap space and 4 roster spots to fill.
For GM Layden/Thibodeau there is one glaring loose tooth on that roster: Nikola Pekovic has 2yrs/$23.7m left on his deal. Pekovic is an injury-prone leftover from a different time in Wolves history, now he's still a solid scorer in the lane but hard to imagine the Wolves envision him in their future. If he can play, fine, he becomes another helpful veteran off the bench; but if he can't, they have to figure out how to move him (can he be traded to Italy or Spain? China in the mix for that contract?). As for the #5 pick, I think Buddy Hield is perfect for the Wolves and could be there at #5: a 5th year senior, he's a little more mature and should be ready to step in and be a solid scorer right away, more youth movement but hopefully he can fast track to the rest of the crew.
Coaching-wise Thib's first duty is also clear: turn LaVine and Payne into defensive standouts and, man, the Wolves instantly vault into top 5 in the West (where they might be vaulting anyway). This team is already pretty good, for the most part Thibs just needs to mold them into shape. But the here-and-now improvement that Thibs could produce would be making LaVine a more reliable player (I'd start with his D, improve that and you can live with his inconsistent offense) and getting something out of Payne (telling you, man, I haven't given up on the dude, if Thibs can reach him, then the Wolves can blow up right now). Shabazz Muhammad is still in limbo mode: if he produces, keep him; if not, move on him along. (Pekovic and Muhammad likely to become their trade deadline options)
Ricky Rubio still has 3 years left on his deal and I think the Wolves should utilize him rather than try to move him. Personally I like Ricky Rubio, his offensive deficiencies could be mitigated by adding a solid scorer in Buddy Hield, a reliable wing player in Luol Deng and a move toward a fast break offense cued by upgraded defense. I kinda like a pass-first PG to go with all these youngsters and if Thibs can crank up the D, the offense will either flow better or become less important. That said, Rubio is the most likely part of the program to falter and become untenable. If Rubio works, Wolves will improve greatly; if Rubio doesn't work, they become desperate to trade him and flail badly (not likely but could happen).
Future looks really, really, really good for the Wolves right now. Not everything is perfect but the roster is already well-structured, the lineup is solid and the family vibe in Minneapolis is palpable and lovable. I suggest finding some scoring in #5, turn up the defense in practice and aim for a reliable smart vets to round out the rotation. I think the Wolves should easily be a playoff team and with the right luck could have some home court advantage next post-season. Looking forward to seeing where the Wolves go next year.
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