2017-18 NFL (Division Round)

Titans 22-21 Chiefs
The 1st half was exactly what I thought it would be: Chiefs driving and finishing without much problem, Titans not moving the ball at all. Seemed like that would continue...and even after watching the game I don't know why it didn't. The Chiefs were without Kelce for the whole 2nd half but they should've been able to get some first downs. Alex Smith couldn't keep the field position game up. On the other side Mariota quite comfortably led the Titans on drive after drive through KC's D. I like Mariota and for the first time it looked like he is performing an Aaron Rodgers-like function, he's certainly not Rodgers but when he's making plays he makes a lot of mediocrity look workable. I bought into the Chiefs, man, I thought they had a good shot at making a run, started out okay, but they blew it--it's the way they completely forget how to play football as soon as something goes wrong that is troubling. Under Andy Reid the all-or-nothing ethic can turn anything into an insurmountable crisis. The Titans played with some spunk, got further than anyone thought they would (quite a bit further than I would've thought), had moments of looking pretty good out there. (They're gonna get smoked by the Pats, though. Thought the Chiefs could've given them a game but the Titans won't) I missed on the Chiefs.

Falcons 26-13 Rams
I was really impressed with the Falcons pass defense in this game. Felt like the refs were letting them play (can't help but wonder if non-calls become a controversy later on) and the Rams couldn't take advantage. I was surprised how tentative the Rams looked. I can understand some nerves, but outside of a coupla good drives late in the 1st half, they never got going on offense at all. The Falcons came out playing aggressive and were rewarded by the refs, good for them. The offense looked pretty good, the Rams pass rush was flying around but Ryan was able to make plays. The Rams have sucked for a long time, playoffs are for veterans, Rams just didn't have the moxie. (The Falcons can beat the Eagles, another team that just got good going against the defending conference champs (without their QB) and then another game in a dome...?). I missed on the Rams.

Bills 3-10 Jags
Yeah, this game was pretty much what I figured it would be: two terrible offenses against two good defenses. The Jags had one good drive, scored a TD and that was pretty much all it took. Otherwise, not much to report. The Bills hung around, played spunky, losing Tyrod with under a minute to go was not ideal (but didn't seem difference-making in the end), they capped off a good year under a new coach, got the fans back into it, showed some forward progress...now to get a new QB and start re-making the offense again...*sigh* As for the Jags, they've got a good pass rush, they're tough up the middle, but that offense is one dimensional and shallow at that. I know they already won a game at Pittsburgh this year, but I'll my eat my hat if they do it again. I was right on the Bills (+8.5).

Panthers 26-31 Saints
Yeah, this game was about what I thought it would be, too: the Saints score TD's, the Panthers get FG's. Saints (4 TD's, 1 FG), Panthers (4 FG's, 2 TD's). That simple: the Saints finish while the Panthers just get close. The difference between these two teams was minimal: Brees was more efficient and effective than Cam, the Saints D made 1 or 2 more stops than the Panthers D, otherwise pretty similar. The Saints added the defensive ROY (Marshon Lattimore) and the offensive ROY (Alvin Kamara) to a veteran squad with a great QB and they won their division for the first time in years. Now they're off to another dome. I was right on the Panthers (+6.5)


And the next batch of games:
Falcons (-2.5) @ Eagles
First thought is that the Falcons are playing as well as anyone right now, while the Eagles are playing wounded. The Falcons caught the Rams flatfooted and now they're catching the Eagles with a 2nd string QB. But that Eagles D is good, this game isn't over as some folks think. I think the Eagles will keep the Falcons from running up the score, if they can get Ryan to turn the ball over, the Eagles can definitely win. The Falcons are playing well but on the grass in freezing cold Philly, I think that Eagle D can get to him. I kinda like the Falcons to win, but I think they come from behind, I think this game is close and the Falcons win it late, I'll say Falcons 20-17). I'll take the Falcons (but just barely). 

Titans @ Pats (-13)
Yeah, I don't give the Titans much of a chance in this one. I think Brady can play terrible and the Pats D can be atrocious and the Pats can still win easily and cover the spread. So I can't even imagine what the Titans would have to do--they'd have to start by playing their very best game of the year, but even that would just be a start. Mariota could be the wild card that Belichick can't account for, but how many times can Mariota make miracles happen? He'd probably need like 4 or 5 big plays at least to even be in the game in the 4th. We'll see, this Pats team is not exactly one of their best but they're still plenty good enough to take care of the Titans. If the Titans turn the ball over, this game will be over pronto. Thus game has 42-10 written all over it. Lot of points but I'll take the Pats.

Jags @ Steelers (-7.5)
The Jags pummeled the Steelers earlier this year taking advantage of an out-of-sorts offense that couldn't get a running game going. But the Steelers are prone to bad days, hard to imagine the Jags will catch them twice in the same season. The Jags do have a pass rush that could get Ben turned sidewise and keep Bell chip-blocking rather than moving the ball. But even if the Jags could slow down the Steelers, I don't see them scoring any points anyway. 7.5 seems like a lot but I think the Steelers are up at halftime and comfortably ride to a win, something like 28-13. I like the Steelers.

Saints @ Vikings (-4)
Ahhhh, the game of the week. Drew Brees has shown that he still has the goods and that offense is as scary as any in the league right now and the dome might seem like home to them. But the Vikings D has been, I think, the best of the year. If anyone could fustigate Brees, keep the checkdowns checked down and stop the big plays, its the Vikings. And on the other side, the Saints D is much improved but Minnesota's offense has been efficient and crisp and there are more vets on the Vikings side than the Saints. I'll take the Vikings to hold off the Saints late--seems like they have to win by more than a FG, don't they? I'll say Vikings 26-23. I like the Saints to cover but the Vikings to win.