MVP Prediction

All right, who's gonna win the MVP?

Here's a list of 21 possibilities: Steph Curry (Warriors), Lamarcus Aldridge (Spurs), James Harden (Rockets), Blake Griffin (Clippers), Chris Paul (Clippers), Marc Gasol (Grizzlies), Anthony Davis (Pelicans), Eric Bledsoe (Suns), Kevin Durant (Thunder), Russell Westbrook in the West. Chris Bosh (Heat), Derrick Rose (Bulls), Lebron James (Cavs), Kyrie Irving (Cavs), Kyle Lowry (Raptors), John Wall (Wizards), Al Horford (Hawks), Jeff Teague (Hawks) in the East. For giggles let's add Damien Lillard (Blazers), Demarcus Cousins (Kings), Al Jefferson (Hornets) as big time number hangers from non-playoff teams.

Curry, the defending champ, looks as good as ever 2 games into the season and I expect he's gonna be every bit the monster this year that he was last year. Got to be at the top of the list but he's on a really deep team and that alone should sap a bit of his support.

Aldridge was an underappreciated badass in Portland for years. Now he's moved over to the talent-rich, high visibility Spurs where he'll have to adapt himself to a machine already in motion. I think he'll be just fine but there will be growing pains and the team concept of the Spurs will probably keep him from getting a maximum number of votes.

Harden is the center of the Rockets who have revamped their bench in hopes of another excellent regular season and deep run into the playoffs. Though they're off to a terrible start, they're gonna be just fine and with Harden in the lead, he'll get plenty of consideration for the award.

Griffin and Paul will share the ball and the glory in LA and while I think they'll both have fine seasons (as will the team itself), I think they'll poach votes from each other. Paul has the better chance of the two to emerge as the voters' favorite.

Gasol was overlooked last season, I thought he was GREAT last year. Though he's been paid and the Grizzlies haven't upgraded around him, I think Gasol will have another fine and overlooked season.

Davis is perhaps the favorite to emerge into the beast he is destined to become but I think the Pelicans need another year before their roster can finally come together. Davis will be awesome, no doubt, but the team itself will keep him from winning the MVP.

Bledsoe is a personal pick, I'm still convinced he's the next great NBA badass (I already consider Davis to be one of those) and if the Suns advance into the playoffs, it'll be largely based on his productivity. Worthy of an MVP? Probably not, but the more W's the Suns pile up, the more notice he'll get.

I initially thought that Durant would roll into this season revitalized and chip-on-shoulder-ish and the Thunder would kick much ass this season and Durant would take another MVP. On second thought I think all of the above conditions actually bolster the case for Westbrook winning the MVP: Durant has the opportunity to augment an MVP rather than carry a team on his own. I really do think both will be awesome and the Thunder will win a ton. Come MVP time, they may cancel each other out but if not I suspect Westbrook will get more votes.

I had Bosh on my shortlist last season but the Heat weren't able to take much of a step forward last year and Bosh himself suffered some really scary health problems. But now he's back, the team looks much better than last year and Bosh is again back in the mix to be a superior badass in this league. He's kinda in a catch-22 though: in order to get consideration the team will have to rank high in the East but that will most likely mean that the team concept has taken hold and Bosh doesn't have to drag the team along. If they Heat aren't good, doesn't matter how fine Bosh's season is; but if they're too good, Bosh will get less credit.

I added Derrick Rose to this list really only because he's a past winner and because he looks to be (finally) over his injury concerns. That said, like Bosh his MVP-worthiness will probably fall in line with how the rest of the team develops around him. I think the Bulls will finish 1st in the East because I think Rose's contribution is really marginal: the team will be good anyway, Rose is the cherry on top. But if Rose shines out, has solid stats and the Bulls finish 1st, he'll get more votes than if, say, Chris Bosh pulls off all that. So while I don't really think of Rose as an MVP candidate, I think the people vote might think of him that way.

I should probably say right off the bat that Lebron is OF COURSE the true MVP of the league, everything the Cavs can achieve will be built on Lebron's back, but that doesn't mean he'll win the award. Indeed, I think Kyrie Irving is set for a big time year (when he comes back from injury) and I think his rise will coincide with the Cavs' rise, ergo I expect Kyrie to get a lot of the credit for the Cavs' success. Kyrie isn't my pick but he is my dark horse, that guy that could appear out of nowhere and snatch it. Lebron will undoubtedly deserve it but he will also undoubtedly not finish higher than 4th.

Kyle Lowry is a longshot, I think the Raptors will be pretty good but nothing special. But I can see Lowry finally getting some shine, so if the Raptors do overachieve, if some of the other Eastern stars have disappointing seasons, then Lowry could get some love.

John Wall is got some buzz about him and I think he is ready to take off this year (so are Beal and Porter, too). He's much beloved in DC, he's a human highlight reel, he's finally in that perfect veteran stage of his career, if the Wizards really take a step forward, expect Wall to take the lion's share of the credit. If he puts a crazy efficiency season (very possible), then the nerds in the chattering class will fall over themselves to sing his praises. Along with Kyrie, another top dark horse candidate.

Atlanta led the East last year and look to be good again this year, Jeff Teague (a la Kyrie and Wall) could be in for a positive appraisal of his growth, if the Hawks finish 1st again this year (I don't see it happening but I guess it could), look for Teague to get some love. Or look for Al Horford (contract year) to step up and lead. I think they're both long shots but mainly because I think the Hawks will drop off from last year; if they can keep it up, though, then MVP votes will need to follow.

Al Jefferson (contract year) looks to get back to his down low domination he had a coupla years ago. I don't anticipate the Hornets will be good enough around him to make his potential resurgence notable enough for MVP votes. But he is lovable, is totally watchable at his best and if the Hornets do come together and surprise in the East, Big Al should get some love.

Demarcus Cousins is one of the best pure basketball players in the NBA (has been for years) but until the Kings get good (or he gets to a good team), he won't get the love he deserves. I'd love to think that this is his year but I think the Kings will still be horrible. But if he has a monster--MONSTER--year, never know, the talking heads that love Demarcus might step up and get him some mainstream love. (I doubt it but he is a badass and deserves better than Sacramento will ever give him)

With the rest of his crew scattered to the winds, Damien Lillard looks to have the ball in his hands a lot this year in Portland. The Blazers don't appear playoff worthy but I think they've got a decent shot to be way better than you think and, if so, Lillard has an opportunity to have a big year on an overachieving team, which could earn him some votes.

So what do I think will happen? I'll stick with James Harden. His efficiency is legendary, his team is going to win a lot of games while the supporting cast will stay relatively anonymous. Harden is gonna be a big player on a top team, that's how MVPs are won and I think its his time. I'll take Kyrie, Curry, Westbrook, Lebron, Davis, Wall and Paul to be up there at year's end too.