Coach of the Year

In determining Coach of the Year candidates, it is best to start at the other end: who's gonna get fired first?

Interim coaches: Sam Mitchell (T-Wolves). Mitchell stepping in for the late Flip Saunders has an opportunity to keep this job. I suspect he will not be replaced during the season but that doesn't mean the job is his to keep. He's got a youth movement on his hands and if the T-Wolves vastly overachieve (say, hanging around that 8th playoff spot) then I think he's got a decent shot at Coach of the Year. Not my pick but not a crazy longshot as I think that team will be better than you think right away because as opposed to the Magic and Jazz, the Wolves have enough veteran presence to give the young talent something to lean on.

1st year coaches: Mike Malone (Nuggets), Scott Skiles (Magic), Fred Hoiberg (Bulls), Alvin Gentry (Pelicans), Billy Donovan (Thunder), George Karl (Kings).

I think the Nuggets will be the worst team in the West, for which Malone will receive none of the blame, thus he is neither a candidate for best or worst of the year. His job is to keep morale up and get Mudiay used to life in the NBA.
If Skiles can get the Magic into the playoffs (not a crazy notion) then he'll get some votes. There are too many other good candidates to think he'll win Coach of the Year but I doubt he gets fired unless the wheels come off down there (which I do NOT anticipate will happen).
Hoiberg has a real shot at COY: my personal belief is that Thibodeau kinda ran the Bulls into the ground giving Hoiberg a good chance at increasing offensive efficiency without sacrificing defensive intensity; in short, I think the Bulls will be good and Hoiberg will get serious consideration.
Gentry is taking over a team that was okay last year, looks to be a little more okay this year. If the Pelicans take a jump, he'll get a lot of votes, but I don't think they will be wildly better than last year so I don't think he wins. No way he gets fired though.
Donovan is taking over a squad that has underperformed for a few years now, if he can keep them healthy, the Thunder will be one of the best teams in the league giving Donovan a great shot at Coach of the Year. No way he gets fired this year.
Karl has a tough job ahead of him, there's talent there but not enough to succeed in the West. I suspect Karl is more likely to be fired (or resign to preserve his mental health) than get votes for Coach of the Year.

2nd year coaches: Derek Fisher (Knicks), Stan Van Gundy (Pistons), David Blatt (Cavs), Lionel Hollins (Nets), Jason Kidd (Bucks), Byron Scott (Lakers), Steve Kerr (Warriors), Quin Snyder (Jazz)

Fisher's job is to be the face of the team until the team develops enough of an identity to lure a real coach. I doubt he gets fired because I doubt a real coach emerges but even though NYK should be waaaaay better than last year, they won't be good enough to earn some Coach of the Year consideration for Fisher.
Personally I don't get what Stan Van is doing in Detroit but they already look better than last year and a lot of folks think they're gonna make the playoffs (I'm still dubious). Making the playoffs alone probably won't be enough to get SVG COY votes but no way he gets fired (especially since he is his own boss).
Blatt has the uniquest (hmmm, I thought I just invented that word but spell check so its okay) career in the NBA: every second of his time in Cleveland will be on the hot seat, but he'll probably make the conference finals every year. The difference between winning Coach of the Year and getting sent packing is razor thin. Unless someone like Hoiberg or Donovan emerges, Blatt could actually win.
Hollins is coaching a horrible team that has no chance of being good. No way he gets COY votes, but should probably keep his job because there's no one out there that would be any better at this job.
Kidd has some real expectations in Milwaukee, we'll see how he does. I don't think the Bucks get into the top 4 in the East so I don't think he gets any votes but I think his job is pretty secure.
Scott's job is to watch over the flailing Lakers until the next wave of free agents floods in. Currently the job has no up side (they will not be good this year) and no down side (nobody else wants this job...until the free agents arrive).
Kerr is a golden boy, no way he loses his job. But unless the Warriors win 70 games (could happen) I don't see him getting more COY votes.
I think Snyder is doing a good job in Utah but unless they sneak up on people (like getting past the Pelicans and Grizzlies) I don't see him getting more than a token vote for COY. Probably no way he gets fired though, he's doing well there.

3rd year coaches: Brad Stevens (Celtics), Mike Budenholzer (Hawks), Steve Clifford (Hornets), Brett Brown (Sixers), Jeff Hornacek (Suns), Dave Joerger (Grizzlies), Doc Rivers (Clippers)

Stevens is the BEST COACH IN THE LEAGUE. But unless the Celtics vault into the top 4 of the East (uh, I don't see that happening), he won't get votes for Coach of the Year. No way he gets fired--quite the opposite: they'll have to beg him to stay one o' these days.
Budenholzer has now taken over GM duties in Atlanta in a divisive corporate atmosphere. Bold prediction: I think Budenholzer the most likely to get fired. Yes, he just won COY last year but the expectations are higher in Atlanta and I fear this squad has already peaked. Rather than entrenching his position, I suspect taking on more responsibility will make him even more of a target. Coach Bud better get it done this year or he might get sent packing.
Clifford is the next on the hot seat, though firing him would purely be to 'shake things up'. The Hornets made the playoffs two years ago, sputtered last year and I suspect will sputter some more this year. There was a time when the Hornets could sneak up on people, that time has passed. I think he's done a decent job with what he's been given but we're getting near that time when the GM has to fire somebody rather than take the blame himself. Thus I think Clifford is probably on the hottest seat in the league.
Brown could be the fall guy in Philly but I don't think so, I think he's part of the plan. And I suspect when the Sixers actually try to win again (next summer?), that Brown will still be part of the plan. No way he wins Coach of the Year but I don't see him getting fired either, I think he's their guy for the future.
Hornacek is another (like Clifford) that could take the blame for a scuffling front office. I think he's done a pretty good job but there's something off about that franchise and unless the Suns make the playoffs (I had them in but....nobody else did) he might be looking for a job next summer.
Joerger has done a fine job in Memphis but it feels like this Grizzlies squad has peaked. Unless they get perimeter scoring (they have tried and failed so many times in the last few years), they will not be in the top 4 in the West. The Grizzlies are good but doesn't feel like they're getting better, does Joerger take the fall for that? He might.
Rivers is his own boss and I think the Clippers will be a solid regular season squad. I think there are better candidates for COY but no way he gets fired.

4th year coaches: Terry Stotts (Blazers), Randy Wittman (Wizards)

Stotts is in a weird place: no way the Blazers are as good as previous years but if he can salvage something from this season, he might be closer to Coach of the Year than ever before. But unless things go horribly, I don't see him getting fired either (indeed, I'd say there's a better chance he quits than gets fired). I think the Blazers will be okay, might even be in contention for that 8th spot, so I don't see him leaving this year.
I think the Wizards will be a really good regular season team this year so unless health turns really bad, I think Wittman should get some COY votes and no way he gets fired.

5th year coaches: Kevin McHale (Rockets), Dwayne Casey (Raptors), Frank Vogel (Pacers)

I can see the Rockets being the top team in the West, McHale could get some serious votes for COY. Could the Rockets replace McHale? I doubt it.
Dwayne Casey could be at the end of his time in Toronto, but I don't think so. I think the Raptors will be a pretty good team in the East and unless management thinks there's somebody better out there, I suspect Casey gets no votes for COY but will be back next year.
Vogel is the man for the Pacers, they'd be foolish to let him go. That said, I don't see the Pacers making the playoffs so I don't see Vogel getting COY votes.

Veteran coaches: Eric Spoelstra (Heat), Rick Carlisle (Mavs), Greg Popovich (Spurs)

Spoelstra has his hands full with this team. I think the Heat could be really good this year and we'll see if Spoelstra is up to the task of mixing and matching this weird collection of talent. I think he will, I think he's a really good coach and I think he'll be in the mix for Coach of the Year.
Carlisle just signed an extension, which probably indicates the Mavs will try to tank this year. While I don't think the Mavs will be good, I don't think they'll tank, that's just not who they are. They're still gonna beat sloppy teams, they're still gonna get hot from the floor, they're gonna play with pride. Carlisle will get no Coach of the Year votes but nor will he get fired.
Popovich is Popovich, man.

Weird season: I don't see any obvious hot seat candidates, normally there's one or two every year. So for most likely to get fired I'll go with Karl (Kings), Clifford (Hornets), Joerger (Grizzlies) and maybe Budenholzer (Hawks) and Hornacek (Suns). I wouldn't recommend any of those firings but GMs gotta blame somebody and these guys seem like the most likely to take the blame.

For Coach of the Year I'll go: Hoiberg (Bulls), McHale (Rockets), Kerr (Warriors), Spoelstra (Heat), Donovan (Thunder). (Wittman will deserve votes but he won't get them)