AFC (Week Nine)

Pats -- The offense is still the best in the business. Defense is okay but not too many teams are gonna outscore 'em.

Raiders -- The funnest team around, so even though they don't have the backbone of a solid winner, I'm still rooting for them. The offense is really good and the defense is getting there.

Steelers -- Yeah, they're stumbling but Big Ben over the top will beat most everyone they play. Really kinda mediocre but they got street smarts and plenty of offensive weapons.

Broncos, Chiefs -- Not sure which is better (or maybe it's worse). Chiefs are a solid grinding team that will outwork most teams on the field. The Broncos have a knockout pass rush and pretty good offense. Neither seems like a world beater but both will be a tough out down the line.

Bengals -- Like the Cards, I think the Bengals peaked last year and instead of hitting the ground running, they're making up lost ground. I think the Cards are still good enough to squeak into the playoffs but I don't see either side of the ball being good often enough to go deep.

Dolphins -- Perhaps it's premature to put them up this high but I'm starting to believe that pass rush and that running game could really do damage. They've got the good they just need the consistency (ugh, am I really betting on Tannehill?).

Chargers -- Like the Saints, they can sling it around and run up the score and the D even has moments, too. On good days they'll sting people but they also look plenty capable of botching easy ones.

Ravens -- D is still really good but, man, I think the offense is kinda terrible. They keep games close but after all these years I'm still not into Flacco: he's not a closer and a team with this kind of defense desperately needs a closer. They could be good enough to win games but I'm just not feeling it.

Bills -- They're feisty, they've got decent talent on both sides of the ball but they're just too sloppy and inconsistent be anything more than a spoiler.

Texans -- I guess they'll win the division but they are so uninspiring.

Colts -- They've got Andrew Luck and not much else. But the competition is pretty soft and the Colts might still pull it out but can you see them beating anyone in the playoffs? I don't.

Titans, Jags -- Sometimes they're okay, sometimes they're terrible. I'm never really sure what makes them what each week.

Jets -- Doesn't the coach look like he's experimenting out there? He's not trying to lose but he doesn't seem all that eager to win, he's just casually trying stuff out there to see what works, he's game planning for next year after they find themselves a new QB.

Browns -- They're plucky, they try hard, they'll win one of these days.

NFL Week Four (AFC)

In the pre-season I made team by team projections. Then I second guessed myself. Now we've seen four weeks of football and its time for a proper power ranking. Since my interest is largely self-referential, I'll look at each team through the prism of my previous projections of them. Where was I right? Where was I wrong?

Patriots -- I had them winning 12 games this year...yeah, I was right. Even with that unusual loss at home to Buffalo, they're still 3-1 without Brady or Gronk in a division that looks so so soft. The D is a little unpredictable, but at their best they look pretty damn good. Hard to imagine the Pats not making the playoffs in the AFC, clearly they're still the face to win that division and wouldn't be shocked if they went undefeated for the rest of the year.

Dolphins -- I initially picked the DOlphins to win 7 games, then reconsidered them up to 9. Ehhhh, that D line is a one of the best in the league but nothing else about the team is particularly noteworthy. That said, right around 8 wins doesn't seem inconceivable considering that their D looks better than Buffalo or NYJ and their QB, while underwhelming, doesn't look to be a crippling drawback (as seems possible for their division foes). I think I still like the Dolphins to finished 2nd in the East, though I don't see them competing for a Wild Card.

Bills -- The Bills have some potential upside (interesting weapons on offense that have yet to gel) but debilitating downside, too (flaky pass defense, a coach permanently on the hot seat, an offense that could turn to mush at a moment's notice). The thing about this team is they'll have some great games and they'll have some truly awful games, making them either the most exciting 6-10 team ever or the shakiest 11-5 team ever. I think they're closer to the 6-10 team.

Jets -- I wasn't won over by the emergency signing of Ryan Fitzpatrick, dubious about the signing of Matt Forte, no idea about the coach, no real impression of the D or the skill players on offense. Okay: I really like that D line and the receiving corps has good variation and depth. That's it. If Fitzpatrick gets it together, the Jets can win some games but unless he does (and I doubt he will) the Jets are the classic 5-11 kinda squad.

Bengals -- I watched the Bengals a lot last year and I was impressed. But rather than keeping that vibe going, it increasingly looks like they had their chance last year and missed it. The offense isn't as crisp as last year, the D isn't as strong. They don't suck but they are decidedly 2nd tier in the AFC rather than being the pick to go to the Super Bowl (as they were for me in pre-season). I still think they're a playoff team but I don't think they're as consistently good as the Steelers. I expect them to compete with the AFC West leftovers for a playoff spot and I think they'll take one. But they'll ride into the post-season as a Wild Card rather than a division winner. Bengals are a solid 10-6 team.

Steelers -- The D is still a work in progress and the offense is kinda one-dimensional. However, that one dimension is maybe the best in the league. Ben over the top to those receivers followed by doses of underneath to RBs in the flat is pretty tough to stop. There are pass rushes that can interrupt that and there are offenses that could maybe match the attack, but week in/week out the Steelers are gonna be one of the better teams in the league. I'll take them to go 12-4.

Ravens -- I had the Ravens winning 3 games. They've already won 3 games (squeakers over the Bills, Browns and Jags), seems like they're gonna be awesome, right? Ehhh, I'm not sold. Flacco is firmly on the high side of mediocre: better than middle of the road but not much. The D doesn't suck but doesn't make plays, the O line is suspect and the skill players are not ideal. Okay, this team is already better than I thought they'd be and they'll probably win a few more squeakers (they'll win the types of games the Chargers are losing) but I don't see them winning much more than that. Ravens 6-10.

Browns -- I had the Browns winning 2 games because...well...even the crappiest teams usually win 2 games. The Browns are probably the crappiest team. So I'll stick with 2-14 for the Browns.

Texans -- I had the Texans winning 9 games and their division. Strangely enough even though they've lost JJ Watt for the year and Brock Osweiler is not terribly impressive at QB, even though the Texans are clearly not as good as I thought they could be, I still think they win 9 games and the division. That division stinks and the Texans feel like the least stinky, so I'm sticking with what I thought before.

Jags -- The Jags were one of everyone's favorite dark horse team in pre-season and I kinda got swept up in that. The Jags have sucked for a while now and though they look better than they have in a while, they still don't seem dangerous at all. I thought they'd win 8 games and maybe be a spoiler team and while they're not that good, they look like the kinda team that could sneak some W's late in the season. I'll take them to win 7 games.

Colts -- Andrew Luck is truly one of the best QBs in the league but, my god, the rest of the team is awful. Frank Gore is still surprisingly effective but the O line is abysmal, the receivers are disappointing, the special teams has no magic and the D is one of the worst in the league. And, just to pile on, I think their coach is pretty terrible. But they still have Luck so I'll give them 5 wins.

Titans -- The Titans are plucky, not good but they'll work hard and sneak some wins that they shouldn't get. But they'll lose more than they win and occasionally just look awful. They look like a classic 6-10 team.

Raiders -- I thought the Raiders would bust out, taking steps forward on both sides of the ball. Well, they have moments of bust out but just as often play the youngsters they are. I think they're gonna be pretty good but the lack of veteran presence is gonna fail them a few times this year, while youthful exuberance will only help them once or twice. I still like the Raiders to take a Wild Card and win 10 games.

Chiefs -- I thought the Chiefs would build on last year's improvement and firmly take a Wild Card spot. But so far they don't look quite as good as last year, they can beat bad teams but I'm not sure they can hang with good ones. I think they go 9-6 and miss the playoffs.

Broncos -- I thought the Broncos would miss Jackson and Trevathan on D and struggle at the QB spot on offense and take a serious step back. Nope. That D is every bit as fierce as last year (Von Miller looks ready to jump from Super Bowl MVP to League MVP). And I've been impressed with both of their young QBs, Simien and Lynch both look capable of being goo enough. The running game is solid, the special teams are solid, the overall vibe is exactly where it ought to be. The Broncos are much better than I would've thought. I like them to win the west and go 12-4.

I've shuffled the rankings but I'm still in on 5 (Pats, Bengals, Steelers, Texans, Raiders) of my 6 playoff projections with the Broncos supplanting the Chiefs. So to re-prosecute the playoff projections: Steelers over Raiders, Bengals over Texans; Pats over Bengals, Steelers over Broncos; Steelers over Pats for the AFC final.

NFL Week 8 (AFC)

Convinced they're in the playoffs: Bengals (legit, man, they're really good on both sides of the ball), Broncos (best D in the league, running game seems to have finally appeared, just picked up Vernon Davis for an over the middle target, you're in a good place when your worst regular player is Peyton Manning), Pats (O line is still a bit shaky but the D is better than usual and Brady's efficiency is unbelievable, schedule never really gets tough this year).

Top of the middle: Colts (they kinda suck, they've got internal turmoil, Luck may or may not be healthy, but their division is truly awful, so I expect them to be in the post-season), Jets (the D is really good, the special teams are solid, I still believe in the running game, weird to say but as long as Fitzpatrick is out there, they've got a shot in every game), Raiders (some buzz in Oaktown!  The offense is real, they're in sneaking-up mode, AFC is pretty bad, they really have a legit shot at the playoffs).

Bottom of the middle: Dolphins (they can be good, 50/50 whether they'll show up), Bills (watched them a coupla times and when they're not setting records for penalties they're generally the better team; if they clean up their act they can still make the playoffs and be good, not really betting on that happening though), Steelers (still got a shot but Big Ben tries too hard and without Bell I think it'll be too much to overcome), Chiefs (not terrible, can still make some noise if they get it together).

Convinced they're out of the playoffs: Texans (actually they're tied for 1st in their division but, man, they've got problems all over the place), Chargers (everything is going wrong on that squad, everybody's hurt, the home crowd sucks, nothing but bad vibes), Ravens (old and creaky at every positions), Browns (when QB controversy is the best part of your season, things aren't good), Jags (would love to report that they're getting better but I'm still not seeing it), Titans (well they've got a QB but not much else).