2022-23 NBA Playoffs (3rd Round, 5 games in)

Lakers 126-132 Nuggets

Lakers 103-108 Nuggets

Nuggets 119-108 Lakers

Nuggets 113-111 Lakers

Game One felt to me like it would be the template of the series: Nuggets came out dominant, built a huge lead, Jokic was breaking NBA records by halftime and then the Lakers salted away that lead and came close to overtaking the home team, when the Nuggets put the clamp down on (scrum at the Lakers end led to a breakaway dunk for Gordon with about a minute to go and that was that). Takeaway: Nuggets offense is pretty great and their defense is pretty bad. 

But the next three games went the other way: Lakers came out strong but couldn't ever really hold the Nuggets off. Can't tell you how many times the Lakers would go on a crazy run, getting buckets, making plays, got all the momentum....and you'd look up and they're ahead by 4....really? This Nuggets team doesn't stay cold for long and no matter how bad their D is, they've always got a chance to seal it late. And they did in each of the last three games. 

The Lakers had a nice run after a sloppy regular season but they just weren't as good as the Nuggets (were they really better than the Grizzlies or Warriors?) and Lebron's first loss in the final four was the end result. Austin Reaves and Rui Hachimura were the big revelations (and the next big off-season question marks), so Laker fans can still say they had a good season and look forward to next year. And, in true look-at-me fashion, Lebron hinted at retirement (*), so we talked about that for a week rather than acknowledging the obvious truth that the Nuggets are the best team and Nikola Jokic is the best player in the league right now.  

Heat 123-116 Celtics

Heat 111-105 Celtics

Celtics 128-102 Heat

Celtics 102-82 Heat 

Heat 97-110 Celtics

The Heat just outplayed the Celtics in the first two games in Boston, then mopped the floor with the listless Celtics in Game Three. But the Celtics woke up, rode a hot 3rd quarter to a season-saving W in Game Four and then came out hot (and the Heat kinda mailed it in) in Game Five to keep the series alive. 

Right off the bat: all the Celtics looked great in Game Five and utterly awful in Game Three. But otherwise, Jaysun Tatum has been good not great, Jaylen Brown has been ineffective (to use the charitable term), Robert Williams has actually been pretty great but Malcolm Brogdon, Marcus Smart, Derrick White and Al Horford have all been okay in the wins and not so good in the losses. 

For the Heat Jimmy Butler was dominant in the 3 W's and MIA (**) in the two losses. Man, something I noticed about Bam Adebayo: he's typically always great at either defense or offense but he's never great (or bad) at BOTH ends and, holy shit, that kid never gets any calls! Considering how hard he works and what a nice guy he seems like, it's kind of amazing how little love he gets from the refs. Caleb Martin has been great all through this post-season--I'd say he's the real difference maker on this year's run. Kyle Lowry veers between sneaky good and utterly unplayable. Duncan Robinson has returned to the rotation and occasionally looks like really good. Max Struss has generally been good, though he strangely disappeared in Game Five. Gabe Vincent has been nice and they even got some good minutes out of Heywood Highsmith. 

The reason the Heat found themselves up 3-0 in the conference finals is because they've been hitting crazy shots (especially Martin) for three straight rounds now. If that continues, they'll mow down the Celtics; if it doesn't, they'll have to dig deep because the momentum has swung back  to the Celtics, who suddenly have nothing left to lose.

I think the Heat will win tonight--and if they don't, I still think they'll win in Game Seven back in Boston. So though I picked the Celtics in 7, still very much on the table, I wasn't that enthusiastic about that pick and even though they seem to have right the ship, I'm still dubious of their chances of taking two more from the Heat. Looking forward to Game Six tonight because both teams need to bring it. 

The Celtics coming back from 3-0 would be one of the weirder things I've seen in the NBA in a while--and that's considering the #1 Bucks got dusted, the #2 Grizzlies couldn't hang, the defending champ Warriors (***) stumbled around all season long and the left-for-dead Lakers made a run to the final four. Been a weird season, weird playoffs--and a weird summer awaits! 

(*) Will Lebron retire this summer? No fuckin' way! The only scenario that would keep Lebron from coming back next year is if this summer's surgery goes horribly horribly wrong, which I don't anticipate will happen. So unless Lebron gets hit by a comet, I fully expect him to be back next season. 

(**) "Ask me why...am I....M-I-A...Am I in heaven or am I in Miami"....Ah, an old favorite. 

(***) Weird observation. The Nuggets swept the Lakers but all four games were competitive. I can't help thinking that if the Nuggets had played the Warriors instead, the Warriors would've gotten hot and stole a game...but would've gotten absolutely curb stomped in the other four games. Does that make sense? Nuggets-Lakers was a tennis match where the two competitors were actually pretty close though the scoreline looks like a walkover, whereas the Nuggets-Warriors would've been a pummeling where the scoreline would've looked a little less bad for the loser. Weird season, man, and I love it. 

2022-23 Champions League (Semifinals)

1st leg 

Real Madrid 1-1Manchester City

Man City dominated possession in the 1st half and slowly built to getting decent rips on the goal but Madrid's D seemed sturdy enough to keep them out. Meanwhile, though Real seemingly barely touched the ball, their breakaways generated some nice looks and not long before the half, Vini was able to rip one from about 25 yards out (nice!) that found the goal. I expected the 1-0 lead to hold up but Man City was able to get the equalizer (a lovely rip from 25 yards out by De Bruyne). Good game, thought Real was probably the better side but the game ended tied, so the second leg has all the makings for an old timey barnburner. 

AC Milan 0-2 Inter Milan

Inter blitzed AC in the first 10 minutes, netting two goals, another shot off the post and a point blank whiff that would've made an incredibly deep hole for the home side. The two goals held up because after that neither team could maintain any control of the game. Not a bad game, certainly not boring, but the last 80 minutes or so were rather uneventful.

2nd leg

Inter Milan 1-0 (3-0) AC Milan

AC Milan had more confident possessions, but Inter was more dangerous around the goal all the way through. They finally broke through around the 70th minute and that was pretty much it. AC Milan never got anything going in this match. But outside of 10 minutes of brutal dominance in the 1st leg, Inter was so casual that its hard to tell how good they actually are. Well, they're into the Final so you gotta give them a puncher's chance at least. 

Manchester City 3-0 (4-1) Real Madrid

Wow, what a thrashing! Real Madrid just never had the ball, they could not get the ball forward to Benzema and Vini, both of whom were virtually invisible for 90 minutes. Man City dominated--DOMINATED--possession early on, peppered the goal routinely, felt like it was just a matter of time before they connected on a corner but they didn't even need it. Bernardo slipped the back line, received the nifty pass and finished strong, then a little later on was the beneficiary of chaos in the box and was able to head one home before the half. There was still a sliver of a chance that Real was gonna make the 2nd half a game but they just couldn't maintain possession. When Man City connected on a free kick (an own-goal technically) around the 70th minute was the end of it. 

Final

Inter Milan - Manchester City

My gut tells me that Man City is going to control the ball and get a lot more opportunities around the goal. That doesn't mean they'll win but seems like that offense is more consistent and dangerous. I managed to watch hardly any of Inter's matches (missed 2nd legs against Porto and Benfica), so I don't have a real feel for this side. But they rolled AC Milan, so I'm assuming they don't suck, but I still don't have any grasp on this team. Gotta go with Man City, though I'm ready to be pleasantly surprised. 

2022-23 NBA Playoffs (3rd Round)

Celtics over Sixers in 7

Weird series in that it struck me that the Celtics were the superior side in 6 of the 7 games, should've wrapped up this series much sooner. But James Harden was kinda great down the stretch in Game One, Joel Embiid made big plays down the stretch in Game Four, and the Celtics were supremely awful in Game Five and that was enough to get this to a Game Seven. As for Game Seven, well, it was a replay of the Warriors-Kings Game Seven, no? Close game at the half, then the Sixers (Kings) utterly self-destructed in the 2nd half and the Celtics (Warriors) ended up winning in a blow out. Jaysun Tatum was great in Game Seven, overcoming a serious funk that plagued him in the previous two games, and while I don't want to diminish his performance, man, this was all about the Sixers coming apart. Embiid got torched on defense, Harden's playmaking dried up and the Sixers flailed badly on both ends throughout the 3rd quarter. The Celtics were better, so much better that they should've won much sooner. 

Heat over Knicks in 6

Jalen Brunson! Unfortunately, he was the only one that showed up for the Knicks in this series and that's why the Knicks are heading for a soul-searching summer (*). The Heat over the last few seasons have shown that they can turn it on at a moment's notice as well as anyone around. If I were to tell you that a #8 seed was heading to the conference finals, would you be shocked it was the Miami Heat? Would you be surprised it was Coach Spoelstra? Would you be shocked the squad was led by Jimmy Butler? (Yeah, that's three straight "nah"s) So while I was skeptical of their offense (especially w/out broken-handed Tyler Herro), they just keep knocking down shots and finding ways to outscore their opponents. Not only did they knock out the #1 seed and the most exciting Knicks team in a coupla decades, they did it with seemingly much less effort than the Celtics expended dispatching the outmanned Hawks and the schizophrenic Sixers. Butler is balling, Bam Adebayo is playing good (but can play better), Duncan Robinson is back in the rotation, Kyle Lowry looks rejuvenated, and they're getting substantial contributions from Max Strus, Gabe Vincent and Caleb Martin. 

Nuggets over Suns in 6

The Suns had a coupla big time home games from Devin Booker and Kevin Durant (and a killer night out of Landry Shamet) but that was all they had in them. The Nuggets are a blistering home team and just deeper and better and more reliable than this skimpy Suns team. When Chris Paul went out, to my mind it didn't make that much difference, but when the much-maligned Deandre Ayton sat out Game Six (good for you, young man, let those grumpy old assholes get a W without ya) that was all she wrote for the Suns (**). The Nuggets are the best team in the West and they're still getting better. 

Lakers over Warriors in 6

I thought, the Warriors needed at least 2 big games out of Klay Thompson just to have a chance and they got none. They needed Draymond Green to be extra-Draymond-y and....hmmmmm....he was rather placid in this series. They needed Jordan Poole to awake from his season-long slumber and that did not happen. They needed Andrew Wiggins to be his super human self, but in this post-season he never quite looked like his usual greatest-athlete-in-the-world self. Steph was great, Kevon Looney was solid and I thought Donte Divincenzo was a worthy contributor, but that just wasn't enough to even make a dent in this series. This Lakers team is sloppy and weird and took them the whole season to really get going, but at their best they have a nice collection of rotating contributors (Rui Hachimura, Austin Reaves, Lonnie Walker, Dennis Shroder all had big time games) around their anchors of Lebron and Anthony Davis. The Lakers post-season hopes have always been all about the health of AD and so far he's balling out. 

Conference Championships

Heat - Celtics

The Heat have shown the ability to win games they shouldn't win and the Celtics have shown the ability to lose games they ought to win. So....the Celtics should be nervous even though they are clearly the better squad--better than the squad that beat the Heat in this spot last season! I will stick with the Celtics but, man, I would implore them to finish it in 6 because a Game Seven will be a tightening experience for them. *sigh* Okay, I'll take Celtics in 7. 

Lakers - Nuggets

The Nuggets have been the best team in the league this year, they have a unique home court advantage and they're still rounding into shape. The Lakers have played well, they've gotten good effort from the entire roster, rookie coach Ham doesn't look nervous out there, they're kinda playing with house money and as long as AD stays upright, they're gonna be a tough out. But the Nuggets are the better team and I think they're roll right by the Lakers. Nuggets in 6. 

(*) This summer's free agent class is not impressive and since the new CBA doesn't kick in until next summer, I expect a lot of trades this summer. Crazy trades, exotic deals, multiple-team trades. Virtually every team has at least one "problem" to deal with and the agents are gonna be wheelin' and dealin' behind the scenes and I think we're gonna see a truly weird summer. Looking forward to it!

(**) The Sixers and Suns have since already fired their coaches....why not the Knicks?

2022-23 NBA Playoffs (2nd round, 4 games in)

Sixers 2-2 Celtics

The Celtics have squandered two games, this series should probably be over and yet it is still very much in doubt. Joel Embiid has been good but not great but James Harden has brought it, confidently stroking 3's, controlling the tempo and hitting timely shots. The Sixer supporting cast has been okay, PJ Tucker has been Tucker-ing all over the place and I think George Niang is hitting big shots off the bench, but honestly this side isn't as good as the Celtics. So why are the Celtics not up 3-1 right now? I'm not sure, except that they don't dominate the 1st half and they kinda fall asleep in the 4th quarter rather routinely. Jaysun Tatum and Jaylen Brown are a great duo but they never seem to both be great at the same time. And I feel like the Marcus Smart-Malcolm Brogdon-Derrick White rotation is more haphazard than you'd expect a defending conference champ to be in the playoffs. I still think the Celtics are better and I expect them to finish off the Sixers, but it might go 7 games (and it might get dicey down the stretch!). 

Heat 3-1 Knicks

The Knicks have overachieved, they were able to get over on the upstart Cavs but they don't have enough savvy to brush aside Jimmy Butler. The Heat keep knocking down big shots, keep making all the hustle plays and keep getting all the luck and while I kinda expect the Knicks to win Game Five back home, I wouldn't be shocked if the Heat knocked them out and had a nice rest before the next round. 

Suns 2-2 Nuggets

After the first two games, it felt like the Nuggets were going to steamroll the Suns, but back in Phoenix, Devin Booker and Kevin Durant got it going and got enough contributions from the bench (Landry Shamet had eye-popping offense in Game Four, but I thought his defense on Jamal Murray was excellent, too) to outpace the Nuggets. I still think the Nuggets are deeper and more reliable but in the playoffs, sometimes stars can carry teams and if this gets to Game Seven (looks like it will), it's gonna be a star-on-star battle. I'll stick with the Nuggets in 7 but it'll be a tougher slog than I thought it would. 

Lakers 3-1 Warriors

Yeah, this series kinda looks over but its still all about health. If the Lakers suffer some untimely injuries (*cough* Anthony Davis, I'm looking at you), then the Warriors could pull it together and get hot at the right time. But unless that happens, the Lakers depth suddenly looks formidable, getting strong contributions from D'Angelo Russell, Rui Hachimura and Lonnie Walker to push this series to the edge. Probably over, but the Lakers still need to actually get it done before it's done. 

2022-23 NBA Playoffs (1st Round, 6 games in)

East

Heat 4-1 Bucks

Oh my. This is one the biggest upsets I've ever seen in the NBA, which is often pretty predictable with an occasional mild upset; this is not a "mild upset"--I was half-expecting the Bucks to win 3 straight and advance even when they were down 3-1. The Bucks played like they expected to win--not with swagger or overwhelming control but just that they thought the other team would simply wilt in the face of their awesomeness. (*) Well, Jimmy Butler was having none of that and frankly he was the scariest shit-talkin'-est badass I've seen in eons. And it was the Bucks that wilted down the stretch as Giannis was afraid to take foul shots, Jrue Holiday didn't rise to the occasion on either end and Khris Middleton was kinda expected to handle all the offense. The Bucks should've won every single game, they blew big leads in all of them. I still think this Heat team is limited but they knew they could rattle the Bucks and they did. (**) As for the Bucks, well, hey man: UVA lost as a #1 seed (first in NCAA history) and then came back and won it all the next year. The Bucks still have Giannis, a good supporting cast and an offensive guru at coach (well, for now), I expect they'll still be very good next season. 

Hawks 2-4 Celtics

Yeah, the Celtics fumbled away Game Five in Boston, leading to a hint of consternation but no biggie, they were better than the Hawks and even if it took a little longer than expected to show it, it still turned out to be the case. Explain the Hawks to me: they have drafted really well for several years in a row now and while the roster is stocked with talent, somehow none of it fits together or ever gels on the court. How can they be doing everything so right and still be this mediocre? They've got big moves to make in the offseason and I'm not sure they can pull them off (Trae for.....who?). The Celtics are doing just fine, losing two games to the Hawks is not a bad sign.

Nets 0-4 Sixers

Yup, nothing's changed...the Sixers still don't seem ready for the Celtics even though Trae Young bought them a coupla extra days of recuperation time.

Knicks 4-1 Cavs

Man, the Cavs just didn't have it. The Knicks were ready to win and the Cavs were not. I'm not sure if this was just a bad matchup (maybe) or if the Cavs just kinda suck (I don't think they do) or if the Knicks were just ready to take it to another level (yeah, that's my gut feeling). Whatever the case, the Cavs weren't ready to take the next step and the Knicks laid the smackdown. What do the Cavs need? Looks to me like another year of maturation should greatly benefit this team and if they add the right veteran or two (***), don't be shocked if the Cavs wreck the regular season next year (then stumble timidly into the playoffs). The Knicks looked dominant without even looking their best.

West

Wolves 1-4 Nuggets

Yeah, nothing has changed here. The Wolves are a mess piled on top of a mess. I expect them to make moves this summer, but don't be shocked if the changes don't make any difference (like a 10-year old hiding the green beans he hates under the mashed potatoes). The Nuggets look rested and ready for the Suns' dangerous but skimpy roster.

Lakers 4-2 Grizzlies

Jack Nicholson's back and the LA crowd finally got their chance to fall in love with AD and Lebron. Great W for the Lakers, Lebron the professional had this one circled on the calendar because he absolutely did not want to go back to Memphis for Game Seven. The Grizzlies had a weird year and it'll be interesting to see where they go next year. They're still young and one could say that they have overachieved so far and are on track to mature into a dominant squad....or one could say they're too arrogant and have flown too close to the sun and are flaming out before our eyes. To be perfectly honest, I'm not sure which one it is (though I suspect firing the coach would be a really dumb move). They might be awesome next year or they might be broke (like a broke dog's dick, as an old colleague of mine used to say). The Lakers handled their business, took advantage of the Grizzlies' weakness and inexperience. 

Warriors 3-3 Kings

The Warriors, on the other hand, did not get the memo about wrapping up their series on their home floor and are headed back to Sactown for Game Seven. The Warriors stole Game Five on the road because De'Aaron Fox just never looked right with his broken finger and though he tried valiantly, he shot them out of the game late in the 4th. But Fox came back strong to save the series on the road, a game the Warriors really needed to take. The Warriors just didn't get it done--I loved the way the Kings were throwing all sorts of weird rotations at the Warriors, who were never able to take control. Can the Warriors have a brilliant game and dispatch the Kings? Oh, absolutely! But I'm not betting on it: I predicted at the beginning if it went seven games, the Kings would pull it out and I sticking with that. 

Clippers 1-4 Suns

Yeah, the Clips have clipped and the Suns move on. I assume the Clippers will keep Westbrook (a 50/50 proposition, but Coach Lue can handle him, I think), but what else are they trotting out next year? Not sure where this team goes from here. They were a weird team all season long, stayed weird in the playoffs and will be weird in the off-season, I presume. I expect the Clippers, though, to be a solid playoff team next year simply because even though they're still weird, we have come to expect (no?) that the Clippers will be a talented team with plenty of moxy, a far cry from the Clippers I grew up with. As for the Suns, they got pushed in a coupla games but kinda had it easy the rest of the way, they don't look like a champion squad to me. 

2nd Round

Sixers - Celtics

This is the matchup that the Sixers ought to be excited about: they don't have to face the Bucks and they may as well dispatch the Celtics in Round 2. If you told the Sixers last summer that their path would be an MVP for Embiid, then the broken down Nets, the Celtics instead of the Bucks, and then either the fluky Knicks or the fluky Heat, they would've pinched themselves and told you it was too good to be true. Well, here they are, halfway through the dream--do they look like a championship team to you? They don't to me. Harden looks fat, Embiid looks half-dominant/half-uninterested and the rest of the cast looks good enough to beat the Nets but not a real team. Coach Rivers is already making excuses (and vacation plans) and they just don't look like they're gonna take more than 2 games off the Celtics (****). The Celtics have yet to really play their best basketball but they look prepared to make the leap (whereas the Sixers don't) and with no Bucks on the other side of the bracket, the Celtics are probably booking their travel plans for the Finals (I would, too). The Celtics are the better team, the Sixers are not. If the Sixers can get a Game Seven, anything can happen, but I don't think it gets that far. I like the Celtics in 6. 

Heat- Knicks

The Heat are playing with house money and they've got one of the most fearsome players in the sport on their side. The Heat are coming off a historic upset win....but you know....I still think they're a limited offensive team and without Tyler Herro, I don't see how they keep up with the Knicks. The Knicks breezed through Cleveland with basically just Brunson, Mitchell Robinson and Hartenstein. They'll need more than that against the Heat, who will roll over in 1 game or maybe two, but they'll be working hard deep into the 4th quarter more often than not. Julius Randall needs to show up in the playoffs (for the first time in his career) if they want to make the conference finals. I think they will. The Heat are a nice story but the Bucks lost because they got tight, not because the Heat are the better team. I think the Knicks are better than the Heat and I think they've got the right mindset to outscore the Heat. The Heat will make them work but I like Knicks in 6.

Suns 0-1 Nuggets

Yeah, the Nuggets are already up 1-0 but I wasn't surprised by Game One--in fact I fully expect 3 of the next 4 games to look pretty much just like last night. Devin Booker is playing out his mind, but Chris Paul looks old, Kevin Durant hasn't really found the shape of the Suns attack and Deandre Ayton looks like the Chalmers (***) out there rather than the #1 pick that he was. The Suns did what they needed to do to win, but I think that lack of depth is going to doom them sooner rather than later. The Nuggets are better, deeper and Jokic is the best player on the floor every night. The Suns just don't have the depth to stop the Nugget attack nor to outscore them on the other end. I expect Booker to ball out, but that's the end of it. I'll take Nuggets in 5.

Either Lakers - Kings or Warriors - Lakers
Lebron is getting ready either way. All about health really: I think I'd like the Lakers over the Kings --provided the Lakers stay healthy. And I think Lakers-Warriors is a toss up--probably based on whoever is the least nicked up. Either way, this is not how the Lakers felt at any point during the regular season. (Yeah, I should probably just wait a coupla hours to see who wins in Sacramento but I don't see any of these teams beating the Nuggets, so it probably don't matter)

And to continue to play it all out, in the conference finals I'll take Celtics over Knicks, Nuggets over....whoever. And as for the Final, man, I think Nuggets-Celtics sounds fucking amazing. That will go seven games, coin flip in Game Seven....but I guess I'd say Celtics in 7 (in a fucking classic!).

(*) Kinda reminds me of the Donovan Mitchell Jazz taking out the Russell Westbook Thunder in 2018: the Thunder just assumed they were better than the Jazz and didn't bother to actually put it on wax.

(**) To be fair: Giannis did hit the ground hard in Game One and was never quite the same, Middleton was out long stretches this season and it has come out that Coach Bud's brother died last week. This was all after a cruise control regular season where no one outside of the Celtics really presented any kind of resistance, so this team was perhaps more traumatized than usual and not on their guard. 

(***) I have no idea why they bought out Kevin Love going into a playoff run, but my gut feeling is he wasn't the right guy there anyway. So while I can't remember a guy ever leaving a playoff team for another playoff team like that, I suspect it was the right move for all parties. Did you see Jarrett Allen's quote when asked about Love leaving: "I was told he went for milk and cigarettes and just never came back." Ha!

(****) Don't blame me: I voted for Jokic.

2022-23 NBA Playoffs (1st Round, 4 games in)

East

Heat 3-1 Bucks

Uh oh! The Bucks dropped Game One when Giannis went out after a thud to the floor and the Heat shot the lights out. In Game Two without Giannis, the Bucks handled their business and easily thumped the Heat. The Heat got their revenge in Game Three (the L everyone expected the Bucks to give up on their way to the gentleman's sweep) and then blitzed the Bucks in the 4th quarter of Game Four to put the Bucks in a tight spot. Now, look: the Bucks are a good squad with the best player in the East and the Heat are a so-so sloppy shooting squad with Jimmy Butler and not much else. This is a serious mismatch--so much so that as of now I still expect the Bucks to win three straight and advance. But, man, Jimmy Butler smells blood like no one in the game right now and if the Bucks show even the slighest hint of weakness, hesitance or fatigue, Butler will steal their lunch money. So, yes, I said it, I still expect the Bucks to move on but they better get their shit together or they will get bounced. (Get the popcorn!) 

Hawks 1-3 Celtics

Yeah, this is about right. The Hawks had one really good shooting performance in them, the Celtics had one dud in them and both coincided in Game Three. Dejounte Murray even got suspended for the next game, so it's the Trae show in Game Five--is it possible that Trae goes off and drags this series back to Atlanta? Ehh, I suppose it's possible, but I don't see it happening. I expected this series to end in 5 and I still do.  

Nets 0-4 Sixers

Yeah, the Nets have no offense, man. I like their collection of talent, they are a supporting cast in need of a star, but they just can't keep up with the Sixers (who haven't really played particularly well yet). If only the Nets could find the perfect star for this roster...a big guy, great defender, good ball handler that makes plays for the rangy roster, someone that could get to the basket with ease....if only they had a player that on their roster....you know someone like Ben Simmons (but not the actual Ben Simmons, who has apparently given up on playing basketball). The Sixers, though they have breezed through the opening round, haven't gotten themselves in order (they still don't look like a cohesive squad) and I don't see them being much of a challenge to the Celtics, who are a much fuller, richer squad. 

Knicks 3-1 Cavs

The Cavs are in my blackout zone so I've only seen them a handful of times this year. I expected their depth and their scoring to be more impressive than what I've seen in this series. The Knicks are a wild card, got nothing to lose, and even though Julius Randle has not been great (which doomed them in the playoffs 2 years ago), the rest of the cast (Jalen Brunson and Mitchell Robinson, especially) have been kinda great. And since Donovan Mitchell has been underwhelming to say the least and their twin towers front line hasn't made much difference at either end, I don't see how the Cavs make any kind of run here. The Knicks are playing better right now and unless Mitchell just goes off, I think this series is over, probably in 6.

West

Wolves 1-3 Nuggets

Hey, the Wolves didn't get swept. Good for them. Although they almost blew Game Four, having to scramble to save it in OT, so not exactly a resounding performance. The Nuggets are really good--arguably best in the league all season long--and the Wolves are a dumpster fire that kinda pulled it together late in the season. Point being: I expected Nuggets in 5 and that's what this looks like. 

Lakers 3-1 Grizzlies

Weird series. Ja Morant went down with a wrist injury in Game One and the Grizzlies just straight imploded from there and really gave away the opening match. They re-grouped (w/out Ja, though they win without him pretty regularly) in Game Two and laid a beatdown, but then got stomped (STOMPED! Don't buy the late burst that made the game seem kinda close--it was never close) in Game Three and then frittered away a winnable Game Four in OT (Jimmy Butler's heroics over the Bucks got all the headlines but Lebron was pretty heroic down the stretch against the Grizz that night, too). The Grizzlies came into this series without Steven Adams or Brandon Clarke, while not necessarily devastating losses, missing these two really dings their depth (that is 12 fouls to throw at Anthony Davis, if nothing else), especially factoring in a game and a half without Ja, so being down to Lebron and co. shouldn't be too shocking. But they really could've won One and Four and played truly awful in Three, so this series is closer than you think. The Lakers are a nice team but Rui Hachimura and Austin Reaves have really stepped up and the Grizz don't seem to have an answer. Is the series over? Well, it doesn't look good, but if anyone could win three straight on the Lakers....well, it probably is not the Grizzlies. Gotta go Lakers from here (though they still have some pain ahead of them, I reckon). 

Warriors 2-2 Kings

Fun series! I thought the home team would dominate this series and so far that has come to pass. The Warriors were okay but not good enough in the first two games, then blew the doors off the visiting Kings in Game Three (w/out Draymond, who had been suspended for....I dunno...whatever unnecessary dumb shit he did) and then eked out Game Four at home, where a Harrison Barnes game winner was in the air (and clanked) at the buzzer. Now the buzz is that DeAron Fox has a broken finger, which could be devastating for the Kings, but we'll see. The Kings have yet to play their best basketball, Domantis Sabonis has been okay at best (seems hesitant after a season of knowing exactly what to do) and their defense is truly awful (my god, you could land a helicopter in the lane on them!) and if Fox is hobbled, they could be in real trouble. But the Warriors haven't exactly pulled it together, Steph Curry has, of course, been awesome but the rest of the supporting cast hasn't really rounded into shape yet. If the Kings can't pull it out, then the Warriors suddenly look dangerous all over again (and Steph v Lebron in the 2nd round does look kinda tasty). I'll stick with the home-team thing and the Kings in 7.

Clippers 1-3 Suns

Kawhi looked so great in the first two games, did not play the next two games and there is no timetable for his return--nor is there any timetable for Paul George, who hasn't played in this series. The Suns are getting W's and Devin Booker is playing great right now, but they are vulnerable as they are trying to get too many minutes out KD, Chris Paul, Booker and Deandre Ayton. The Clippers have countered by unleashing Russell Westbrook, who has reclaimed the believers, though I don't know why: he has always played hard and is still far from perfect right now, but the conventional wisdom had gotten so low on him that his mere presence is exciting people. If I was Steve Ballmer, I'd be really fucking grumpy that I paid so much for Kawhi and PG and have gotten so little from them in return. The Clippers could be winning this series right now, if they were at full strength it seems apparent that they could/should overwhelm the skimpy Suns roster. Oh well, looks like the Suns will escape but I don't have high hopes for them going forward because they are quickly burning through their personnel already. If the Clippers could pull out a miracle, they could still win this series, but it doesn't feel like the miracle is coming. 

2022-23 NBA Playoffs (1st round, 2 games in)

East

Bucks 1-1 Heat

Giannis went down in Game One, the Bucks floundered, the Heat shot the lights out and stole the W on the road. Without Giannis in Game Two, the Bucks mopped the floor with the Heat, who reverted back to the mean on their FG%. Haven't heard yet when Giannis will be back but I wouldn't be surprised to see him Game Three. But whether he returns sooner or later, I still think the Bucks are the superior side (especially since the Heat are without Tyler Herro, who also went down in Game One) and I think the Heat have basically already shot their wad, hard to imagine them shooting as well as they did in Game One. If the Bucks win Game Three (which I think they will), then I'd say they're on their way to wrapping this up in 5. 

Celtics 2-0 Hawks

I thought the Hawks might get hot from the floor, perhaps catch the Celtics napping, but after two games, it doesn't look like that's gonna happen. Trae Young just has nowhere to go to get consistent looks at the basket and he is such a negative on defense, I just don't see how the Hawks even take a game. The Celtics look good, they look ready to move on, I wouldn't be surprised if they get the sweep. 

Sixers 2-0 Nets

Yeah, I like the Nets roster but they just don't have enough scoring to hang. They Nets have enough to bedevil the Sixers but not enough to really put it on them. This is just the kind of warm-up the Sixers need: they can't fuck around but they don't really need to worry. I can see the Sixers dropping Game Four, but there's no reason for this series to go more than 5. 

Cavs 1-1 Knicks

The barn burner in the East! The Knicks stole Game One but, man, the Cavs did not shoot well in that game--and still probably should've won! So while this is the closest match in the East, I still think the Cavs are the better team. But the Knicks will win more and I still think this series goes to Game Seven (where the Cavs better get their offense in order). 

West

Nuggets 2-0 Wolves

The Wolves just aren't gonna be able to hang in this series. In Game Two the Nuggets were up by 15 at halftime but they went into sleepwalk mode and the Wolves actually (briefly) stole the lead. But the Nuggets roused themselves and handed their business down the stretch. If the Nuggets sleep walk again, I can see the Wolves stealing a game (perhaps Game Three) but the Nuggets are easily the better team and it would take a real catastrophe for this series to last too long. 

Grizzlies 1-1 Lakers

Ja Morant got hurt late in the 4th quarter (still no word on his return) and the Grizzlies really self-destructed in the last few minutes--a rather shocking collapse actually! And make no mistake: it isn't that the Lakers won, it is that the Grizzlies lost. The Lakers did play well in Game One but I'm not expecting Rui Hachimura to go off like that again or for Austin Reaves to wreck shop on the Grit-and-Grind D again. In Game Two, the Grizzlies won comfortably without Ja (something they do routinely, by the way) and while I expect the Lakers to win a game back at home, I wouldn't expect more than that. I'll go ahead and say it now: I'm guessing the Grizzlies have Game Six circled, they would love to dispatch the Lakers in front of the Lake Show crowd. 

Kings 2-0 Warriors

The Kings are better, man. And I say that even though their D is terrible--TERRIBLE! The strategy of outscoring all comers is a page from the Warrior playbook but I don't think the Warriors can hang. Draymond got suspended for Game Three (a judgement, I think, that was not merely deserved but PLAINLY OBVIOUS!), but don't be shocked if the Warriors are better without him. The conventional wisdom is that the Kings will breeze to a 3-0 lead but I'm not ready to give up on the Warrior offense just yet and I don't think that's based on Draymond's presence. I still like the Kings to win the series but I'm not ruling out a Game Seven just yet. 

Suns 1-1 Clippers

Puzzling series. The Clippers stole Game One behind a marvelous Kawhi performance; meanwhile, the Suns looked out of sorts, struggling to get Kevin Durant ensconced in the offense. The Suns rebounded in Game Two and Kawhi is out for Game Three, so I would expect the Suns to steal back home court advantage. But the Clippers (without Paul George) don't look like a pushover and the Suns don't yet look dominant, so though I still think the Suns are better, I'm not convinced they are ready to play better.