East
Heat 4-1 Bucks
Oh my. This is one the biggest upsets I've ever seen in the NBA, which is often pretty predictable with an occasional mild upset; this is not a "mild upset"--I was half-expecting the Bucks to win 3 straight and advance even when they were down 3-1. The Bucks played like they expected to win--not with swagger or overwhelming control but just that they thought the other team would simply wilt in the face of their awesomeness. (*) Well, Jimmy Butler was having none of that and frankly he was the scariest shit-talkin'-est badass I've seen in eons. And it was the Bucks that wilted down the stretch as Giannis was afraid to take foul shots, Jrue Holiday didn't rise to the occasion on either end and Khris Middleton was kinda expected to handle all the offense. The Bucks should've won every single game, they blew big leads in all of them. I still think this Heat team is limited but they knew they could rattle the Bucks and they did. (**) As for the Bucks, well, hey man: UVA lost as a #1 seed (first in NCAA history) and then came back and won it all the next year. The Bucks still have Giannis, a good supporting cast and an offensive guru at coach (well, for now), I expect they'll still be very good next season.
Hawks 2-4 Celtics
Yeah, the Celtics fumbled away Game Five in Boston, leading to a hint of consternation but no biggie, they were better than the Hawks and even if it took a little longer than expected to show it, it still turned out to be the case. Explain the Hawks to me: they have drafted really well for several years in a row now and while the roster is stocked with talent, somehow none of it fits together or ever gels on the court. How can they be doing everything so right and still be this mediocre? They've got big moves to make in the offseason and I'm not sure they can pull them off (Trae for.....who?). The Celtics are doing just fine, losing two games to the Hawks is not a bad sign.
Nets 0-4 Sixers
Yup, nothing's changed...the Sixers still don't seem ready for the Celtics even though Trae Young bought them a coupla extra days of recuperation time.
Knicks 4-1 Cavs
Man, the Cavs just didn't have it. The Knicks were ready to win and the Cavs were not. I'm not sure if this was just a bad matchup (maybe) or if the Cavs just kinda suck (I don't think they do) or if the Knicks were just ready to take it to another level (yeah, that's my gut feeling). Whatever the case, the Cavs weren't ready to take the next step and the Knicks laid the smackdown. What do the Cavs need? Looks to me like another year of maturation should greatly benefit this team and if they add the right veteran or two (***), don't be shocked if the Cavs wreck the regular season next year (then stumble timidly into the playoffs). The Knicks looked dominant without even looking their best.
West
Wolves 1-4 Nuggets
Yeah, nothing has changed here. The Wolves are a mess piled on top of a mess. I expect them to make moves this summer, but don't be shocked if the changes don't make any difference (like a 10-year old hiding the green beans he hates under the mashed potatoes). The Nuggets look rested and ready for the Suns' dangerous but skimpy roster.
Lakers 4-2 Grizzlies
Jack Nicholson's back and the LA crowd finally got their chance to fall in love with AD and Lebron. Great W for the Lakers, Lebron the professional had this one circled on the calendar because he absolutely did not want to go back to Memphis for Game Seven. The Grizzlies had a weird year and it'll be interesting to see where they go next year. They're still young and one could say that they have overachieved so far and are on track to mature into a dominant squad....or one could say they're too arrogant and have flown too close to the sun and are flaming out before our eyes. To be perfectly honest, I'm not sure which one it is (though I suspect firing the coach would be a really dumb move). They might be awesome next year or they might be broke (like a broke dog's dick, as an old colleague of mine used to say). The Lakers handled their business, took advantage of the Grizzlies' weakness and inexperience.
Warriors 3-3 Kings
The Warriors, on the other hand, did not get the memo about wrapping up their series on their home floor and are headed back to Sactown for Game Seven. The Warriors stole Game Five on the road because De'Aaron Fox just never looked right with his broken finger and though he tried valiantly, he shot them out of the game late in the 4th. But Fox came back strong to save the series on the road, a game the Warriors really needed to take. The Warriors just didn't get it done--I loved the way the Kings were throwing all sorts of weird rotations at the Warriors, who were never able to take control. Can the Warriors have a brilliant game and dispatch the Kings? Oh, absolutely! But I'm not betting on it: I predicted at the beginning if it went seven games, the Kings would pull it out and I sticking with that.
Clippers 1-4 Suns
Yeah, the Clips have clipped and the Suns move on. I assume the Clippers will keep Westbrook (a 50/50 proposition, but Coach Lue can handle him, I think), but what else are they trotting out next year? Not sure where this team goes from here. They were a weird team all season long, stayed weird in the playoffs and will be weird in the off-season, I presume. I expect the Clippers, though, to be a solid playoff team next year simply because even though they're still weird, we have come to expect (no?) that the Clippers will be a talented team with plenty of moxy, a far cry from the Clippers I grew up with. As for the Suns, they got pushed in a coupla games but kinda had it easy the rest of the way, they don't look like a champion squad to me.
2nd Round
Sixers - Celtics
This is the matchup that the Sixers ought to be excited about: they don't have to face the Bucks and they may as well dispatch the Celtics in Round 2. If you told the Sixers last summer that their path would be an MVP for Embiid, then the broken down Nets, the Celtics instead of the Bucks, and then either the fluky Knicks or the fluky Heat, they would've pinched themselves and told you it was too good to be true. Well, here they are, halfway through the dream--do they look like a championship team to you? They don't to me. Harden looks fat, Embiid looks half-dominant/half-uninterested and the rest of the cast looks good enough to beat the Nets but not a real team. Coach Rivers is already making excuses (and vacation plans) and they just don't look like they're gonna take more than 2 games off the Celtics (****). The Celtics have yet to really play their best basketball but they look prepared to make the leap (whereas the Sixers don't) and with no Bucks on the other side of the bracket, the Celtics are probably booking their travel plans for the Finals (I would, too). The Celtics are the better team, the Sixers are not. If the Sixers can get a Game Seven, anything can happen, but I don't think it gets that far. I like the Celtics in 6.
Heat- Knicks
The Heat are playing with house money and they've got one of the most fearsome players in the sport on their side. The Heat are coming off a historic upset win....but you know....I still think they're a limited offensive team and without Tyler Herro, I don't see how they keep up with the Knicks. The Knicks breezed through Cleveland with basically just Brunson, Mitchell Robinson and Hartenstein. They'll need more than that against the Heat, who will roll over in 1 game or maybe two, but they'll be working hard deep into the 4th quarter more often than not. Julius Randall needs to show up in the playoffs (for the first time in his career) if they want to make the conference finals. I think they will. The Heat are a nice story but the Bucks lost because they got tight, not because the Heat are the better team. I think the Knicks are better than the Heat and I think they've got the right mindset to outscore the Heat. The Heat will make them work but I like Knicks in 6.
Suns 0-1 Nuggets
Yeah, the Nuggets are already up 1-0 but I wasn't surprised by Game One--in fact I fully expect 3 of the next 4 games to look pretty much just like last night. Devin Booker is playing out his mind, but Chris Paul looks old, Kevin Durant hasn't really found the shape of the Suns attack and Deandre Ayton looks like the Chalmers (***) out there rather than the #1 pick that he was. The Suns did what they needed to do to win, but I think that lack of depth is going to doom them sooner rather than later. The Nuggets are better, deeper and Jokic is the best player on the floor every night. The Suns just don't have the depth to stop the Nugget attack nor to outscore them on the other end. I expect Booker to ball out, but that's the end of it. I'll take Nuggets in 5.
Either Lakers - Kings or Warriors - Lakers
Lebron is getting ready either way. All about health really: I think I'd like the Lakers over the Kings --provided the Lakers stay healthy. And I think Lakers-Warriors is a toss up--probably based on whoever is the least nicked up. Either way, this is not how the Lakers felt at any point during the regular season. (Yeah, I should probably just wait a coupla hours to see who wins in Sacramento but I don't see any of these teams beating the Nuggets, so it probably don't matter)
And to continue to play it all out, in the conference finals I'll take Celtics over Knicks, Nuggets over....whoever. And as for the Final, man, I think Nuggets-Celtics sounds fucking amazing. That will go seven games, coin flip in Game Seven....but I guess I'd say Celtics in 7 (in a fucking classic!).
(*) Kinda reminds me of the Donovan Mitchell Jazz taking out the Russell Westbook Thunder in 2018: the Thunder just assumed they were better than the Jazz and didn't bother to actually put it on wax.
(**) To be fair: Giannis did hit the ground hard in Game One and was never quite the same, Middleton was out long stretches this season and it has come out that Coach Bud's brother died last week. This was all after a cruise control regular season where no one outside of the Celtics really presented any kind of resistance, so this team was perhaps more traumatized than usual and not on their guard.
(***) I have no idea why they bought out Kevin Love going into a playoff run, but my gut feeling is he wasn't the right guy there anyway. So while I can't remember a guy ever leaving a playoff team for another playoff team like that, I suspect it was the right move for all parties. Did you see Jarrett Allen's quote when asked about Love leaving: "I was told he went for milk and cigarettes and just never came back." Ha!
(****) Don't blame me: I voted for Jokic.
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