East
Heat 3-1 Bucks
Uh oh! The Bucks dropped Game One when Giannis went out after a thud to the floor and the Heat shot the lights out. In Game Two without Giannis, the Bucks handled their business and easily thumped the Heat. The Heat got their revenge in Game Three (the L everyone expected the Bucks to give up on their way to the gentleman's sweep) and then blitzed the Bucks in the 4th quarter of Game Four to put the Bucks in a tight spot. Now, look: the Bucks are a good squad with the best player in the East and the Heat are a so-so sloppy shooting squad with Jimmy Butler and not much else. This is a serious mismatch--so much so that as of now I still expect the Bucks to win three straight and advance. But, man, Jimmy Butler smells blood like no one in the game right now and if the Bucks show even the slighest hint of weakness, hesitance or fatigue, Butler will steal their lunch money. So, yes, I said it, I still expect the Bucks to move on but they better get their shit together or they will get bounced. (Get the popcorn!)
Hawks 1-3 Celtics
Yeah, this is about right. The Hawks had one really good shooting performance in them, the Celtics had one dud in them and both coincided in Game Three. Dejounte Murray even got suspended for the next game, so it's the Trae show in Game Five--is it possible that Trae goes off and drags this series back to Atlanta? Ehh, I suppose it's possible, but I don't see it happening. I expected this series to end in 5 and I still do.
Nets 0-4 Sixers
Yeah, the Nets have no offense, man. I like their collection of talent, they are a supporting cast in need of a star, but they just can't keep up with the Sixers (who haven't really played particularly well yet). If only the Nets could find the perfect star for this roster...a big guy, great defender, good ball handler that makes plays for the rangy roster, someone that could get to the basket with ease....if only they had a player that on their roster....you know someone like Ben Simmons (but not the actual Ben Simmons, who has apparently given up on playing basketball). The Sixers, though they have breezed through the opening round, haven't gotten themselves in order (they still don't look like a cohesive squad) and I don't see them being much of a challenge to the Celtics, who are a much fuller, richer squad.
Knicks 3-1 Cavs
The Cavs are in my blackout zone so I've only seen them a handful of times this year. I expected their depth and their scoring to be more impressive than what I've seen in this series. The Knicks are a wild card, got nothing to lose, and even though Julius Randle has not been great (which doomed them in the playoffs 2 years ago), the rest of the cast (Jalen Brunson and Mitchell Robinson, especially) have been kinda great. And since Donovan Mitchell has been underwhelming to say the least and their twin towers front line hasn't made much difference at either end, I don't see how the Cavs make any kind of run here. The Knicks are playing better right now and unless Mitchell just goes off, I think this series is over, probably in 6.
West
Wolves 1-3 Nuggets
Hey, the Wolves didn't get swept. Good for them. Although they almost blew Game Four, having to scramble to save it in OT, so not exactly a resounding performance. The Nuggets are really good--arguably best in the league all season long--and the Wolves are a dumpster fire that kinda pulled it together late in the season. Point being: I expected Nuggets in 5 and that's what this looks like.
Lakers 3-1 Grizzlies
Weird series. Ja Morant went down with a wrist injury in Game One and the Grizzlies just straight imploded from there and really gave away the opening match. They re-grouped (w/out Ja, though they win without him pretty regularly) in Game Two and laid a beatdown, but then got stomped (STOMPED! Don't buy the late burst that made the game seem kinda close--it was never close) in Game Three and then frittered away a winnable Game Four in OT (Jimmy Butler's heroics over the Bucks got all the headlines but Lebron was pretty heroic down the stretch against the Grizz that night, too). The Grizzlies came into this series without Steven Adams or Brandon Clarke, while not necessarily devastating losses, missing these two really dings their depth (that is 12 fouls to throw at Anthony Davis, if nothing else), especially factoring in a game and a half without Ja, so being down to Lebron and co. shouldn't be too shocking. But they really could've won One and Four and played truly awful in Three, so this series is closer than you think. The Lakers are a nice team but Rui Hachimura and Austin Reaves have really stepped up and the Grizz don't seem to have an answer. Is the series over? Well, it doesn't look good, but if anyone could win three straight on the Lakers....well, it probably is not the Grizzlies. Gotta go Lakers from here (though they still have some pain ahead of them, I reckon).
Warriors 2-2 Kings
Fun series! I thought the home team would dominate this series and so far that has come to pass. The Warriors were okay but not good enough in the first two games, then blew the doors off the visiting Kings in Game Three (w/out Draymond, who had been suspended for....I dunno...whatever unnecessary dumb shit he did) and then eked out Game Four at home, where a Harrison Barnes game winner was in the air (and clanked) at the buzzer. Now the buzz is that DeAron Fox has a broken finger, which could be devastating for the Kings, but we'll see. The Kings have yet to play their best basketball, Domantis Sabonis has been okay at best (seems hesitant after a season of knowing exactly what to do) and their defense is truly awful (my god, you could land a helicopter in the lane on them!) and if Fox is hobbled, they could be in real trouble. But the Warriors haven't exactly pulled it together, Steph Curry has, of course, been awesome but the rest of the supporting cast hasn't really rounded into shape yet. If the Kings can't pull it out, then the Warriors suddenly look dangerous all over again (and Steph v Lebron in the 2nd round does look kinda tasty). I'll stick with the home-team thing and the Kings in 7.
Clippers 1-3 Suns
Kawhi looked so great in the first two games, did not play the next two games and there is no timetable for his return--nor is there any timetable for Paul George, who hasn't played in this series. The Suns are getting W's and Devin Booker is playing great right now, but they are vulnerable as they are trying to get too many minutes out KD, Chris Paul, Booker and Deandre Ayton. The Clippers have countered by unleashing Russell Westbrook, who has reclaimed the believers, though I don't know why: he has always played hard and is still far from perfect right now, but the conventional wisdom had gotten so low on him that his mere presence is exciting people. If I was Steve Ballmer, I'd be really fucking grumpy that I paid so much for Kawhi and PG and have gotten so little from them in return. The Clippers could be winning this series right now, if they were at full strength it seems apparent that they could/should overwhelm the skimpy Suns roster. Oh well, looks like the Suns will escape but I don't have high hopes for them going forward because they are quickly burning through their personnel already. If the Clippers could pull out a miracle, they could still win this series, but it doesn't feel like the miracle is coming.
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