Tuesday, May 9, 2023

2022-23 NBA Playoffs (2nd round, 4 games in)

Sixers 2-2 Celtics
The Celtics have squandered two games, this series should probably be over and yet it is still very much in doubt. Joel Embiid has been good but not great but James Harden has brought it, confidently stroking 3's, controlling the tempo and hitting timely shots. The Sixer supporting cast has been okay, PJ Tucker has been Tucker-ing all over the place and I think George Niang is hitting big shots off the bench, but honestly this side isn't as good as the Celtics. So why are the Celtics not up 3-1 right now? I'm not sure, except that they don't dominate the 1st half and they kinda fall asleep in the 4th quarter rather routinely. Jaysun Tatum and Jaylen Brown are a great duo but they never seem to both be great at the same time. And I feel like the Marcus Smart-Malcolm Brogdon-Derrick White rotation is more haphazard than you'd expect a defending conference champ to be in the playoffs. I still think the Celtics are better and I expect them to finish off the Sixers, but it might go 7 games (and it might get dicey down the stretch!). 

Heat 3-1 Knicks
The Knicks have overachieved, they were able to get over on the upstart Cavs but they don't have enough savvy to brush aside Jimmy Butler. The Heat keep knocking down big shots, keep making all the hustle plays and keep getting all the luck and while I kinda expect the Knicks to win Game Five back home, I wouldn't be shocked if the Heat knocked them out and had a nice rest before the next round. 

Suns 2-2 Nuggets
After the first two games, it felt like the Nuggets were going to steamroll the Suns, but back in Phoenix, Devin Booker and Kevin Durant got it going and got enough contributions from the bench (Landry Shamet had eye-popping offense in Game Four, but I thought his defense on Jamal Murray was excellent, too) to outpace the Nuggets. I still think the Nuggets are deeper and more reliable but in the playoffs, sometimes stars can carry teams and if this gets to Game Seven (looks like it will), it's gonna be a star-on-star battle. I'll stick with the Nuggets in 7 but it'll be a tougher slog than I thought it would. 

Lakers 3-1 Warriors
Yeah, this series kinda looks over but its still all about health. If the Lakers suffer some untimely injuries (*cough* Anthony Davis, I'm looking at you), then the Warriors could pull it together and get hot at the right time. But unless that happens, the Lakers depth suddenly looks formidable, getting strong contributions from D'Angelo Russell, Rui Hachimura and Lonnie Walker to push this series to the edge. Probably over, but the Lakers still need to actually get it done before it's done. 

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