2022-23 NBA Playoffs (1st round, 2 games in)

East

Bucks 1-1 Heat

Giannis went down in Game One, the Bucks floundered, the Heat shot the lights out and stole the W on the road. Without Giannis in Game Two, the Bucks mopped the floor with the Heat, who reverted back to the mean on their FG%. Haven't heard yet when Giannis will be back but I wouldn't be surprised to see him Game Three. But whether he returns sooner or later, I still think the Bucks are the superior side (especially since the Heat are without Tyler Herro, who also went down in Game One) and I think the Heat have basically already shot their wad, hard to imagine them shooting as well as they did in Game One. If the Bucks win Game Three (which I think they will), then I'd say they're on their way to wrapping this up in 5. 

Celtics 2-0 Hawks

I thought the Hawks might get hot from the floor, perhaps catch the Celtics napping, but after two games, it doesn't look like that's gonna happen. Trae Young just has nowhere to go to get consistent looks at the basket and he is such a negative on defense, I just don't see how the Hawks even take a game. The Celtics look good, they look ready to move on, I wouldn't be surprised if they get the sweep. 

Sixers 2-0 Nets

Yeah, I like the Nets roster but they just don't have enough scoring to hang. They Nets have enough to bedevil the Sixers but not enough to really put it on them. This is just the kind of warm-up the Sixers need: they can't fuck around but they don't really need to worry. I can see the Sixers dropping Game Four, but there's no reason for this series to go more than 5. 

Cavs 1-1 Knicks

The barn burner in the East! The Knicks stole Game One but, man, the Cavs did not shoot well in that game--and still probably should've won! So while this is the closest match in the East, I still think the Cavs are the better team. But the Knicks will win more and I still think this series goes to Game Seven (where the Cavs better get their offense in order). 

West

Nuggets 2-0 Wolves

The Wolves just aren't gonna be able to hang in this series. In Game Two the Nuggets were up by 15 at halftime but they went into sleepwalk mode and the Wolves actually (briefly) stole the lead. But the Nuggets roused themselves and handed their business down the stretch. If the Nuggets sleep walk again, I can see the Wolves stealing a game (perhaps Game Three) but the Nuggets are easily the better team and it would take a real catastrophe for this series to last too long. 

Grizzlies 1-1 Lakers

Ja Morant got hurt late in the 4th quarter (still no word on his return) and the Grizzlies really self-destructed in the last few minutes--a rather shocking collapse actually! And make no mistake: it isn't that the Lakers won, it is that the Grizzlies lost. The Lakers did play well in Game One but I'm not expecting Rui Hachimura to go off like that again or for Austin Reaves to wreck shop on the Grit-and-Grind D again. In Game Two, the Grizzlies won comfortably without Ja (something they do routinely, by the way) and while I expect the Lakers to win a game back at home, I wouldn't expect more than that. I'll go ahead and say it now: I'm guessing the Grizzlies have Game Six circled, they would love to dispatch the Lakers in front of the Lake Show crowd. 

Kings 2-0 Warriors

The Kings are better, man. And I say that even though their D is terrible--TERRIBLE! The strategy of outscoring all comers is a page from the Warrior playbook but I don't think the Warriors can hang. Draymond got suspended for Game Three (a judgement, I think, that was not merely deserved but PLAINLY OBVIOUS!), but don't be shocked if the Warriors are better without him. The conventional wisdom is that the Kings will breeze to a 3-0 lead but I'm not ready to give up on the Warrior offense just yet and I don't think that's based on Draymond's presence. I still like the Kings to win the series but I'm not ruling out a Game Seven just yet. 

Suns 1-1 Clippers

Puzzling series. The Clippers stole Game One behind a marvelous Kawhi performance; meanwhile, the Suns looked out of sorts, struggling to get Kevin Durant ensconced in the offense. The Suns rebounded in Game Two and Kawhi is out for Game Three, so I would expect the Suns to steal back home court advantage. But the Clippers (without Paul George) don't look like a pushover and the Suns don't yet look dominant, so though I still think the Suns are better, I'm not convinced they are ready to play better.