Might as well make my Oscar predictions. The Oscars to me are a like a Jets-Browns game in mid-October: I don't wanna watch it but I do wanna know the outcome. And I still wanna see if I can see if I can guess the winner (though I skip the shorts because...well, I usually don't get to see them and they ought to be in a separate ceremony anyway). This year will be kinda tough because frankly I thought it was a pretty crappy year. The Oscar bait movies generally left me cold, none of the big summer titles impressed me and I thought it was a pretty sorry year for kids' movies. I struggled to make a top ten this year, which makes me excited for next year.
Best Doc -- Normally this is a quiet category but OJ: Made in America was easily my favorite film of the year (and the title most likely to endure as a watchable classic film on into the future). What a staggering fucking achievement in editing and story telling and who knew that OJ Simpson led the quintessential American life (poverty, fame, murder, redemption, revenge)? The fact that its a TV movie will earn scorn from some but I think the sheer awesomeness of the film itself will win over enough to earn the award it deserves.
Best Visual Effects -- Last year I thought the Star Wars re-boot would take home a pile of technical awards but mostly they went to the Mad Max re-boot instead. My rationale last year going in was that the Academy would reward boffo box office and my rationale afterwards was that there's plenty of time to give Star Wars movies awards. I think this is one of those opportunities. I liked Rogue One made a huge pile of money without being an irritating force. The only other one I saw was The Jungle Book, which is a hell of a good flick but is really an animated film with a little kid in it. Doctor Strange looked interesting, Deepwater Horizon had some cool looking explosions, Kubo is in fact an animated movie, but I'm betting Rogue One is the title that everyone actually watched and liked.
Best Sound Editing -- And here's where the La La Land onslaught begins. Like it or not, La La Land is a masterful piece of sound editing and thoroughly deserves this award. Also all the other films are basically action movies, I think the musical stands out and wins easily.
Best Sound Mixing -- (Ditto) La La Land (win #2).
Best Original Song -- (*screech*) La La Land seems like the obvious choice here with two nominations to choose from, but I thought those were not the best songs in the movie anyway. I'll go with Moana--can't pass up a chance to get Lin-Manuel on stage.
Best Original Score -- Aaaaaaand we're back. La La Land (win #3) is a pretty easy call on this one. Although personally I thought Moonlight had a killer score, La La Land is a total immersion in the musical form that we haven't seen in an Oscar bait movie since...Chicago (?).
Best Makeup & Hair -- I dunno, I'll say Suicide Squad? There certainly is a lot of hair and makeup in the movie and it seems a clearer choice than the other nominees. (And "Oscar-winning Suicide Squad" just has a such a lovely ring to it)
Best Costumes -- I personally would've gone with Everybody Wants Some!! for best costumes but its not even nominated (why not? It's a period piece like the others). We could throw another one on the pile for La La Land but for this one I'll take Jackie instead (the costumes were the most notable part of the film anyway).
Best Production Design -- Though I thought Hail Caesar was the better film (and more interesting take on Hollywood), I think La La Land takes this one (win #4).
Best Editing -- This one is wide open. They may go with La La Land in the onslaught or this could be the place where they throw a bone to another picture. Though I admired Hell or High Water a great deal, I didn't find the editing to be particularly noteworthy but if you're looking for an underdog, this could be a good chance to reward a movie that deserved more love than in got. I'll go with Moonlight, the film had a startlingly original visual look and this is a good and well-earned place to give it some kudos.
Best Cinematography -- Moonlight could sneak an upset here but I'll go with La La Land (win #5) simply because that opening sequence is pretty amazing.
Best Foreign Film -- The critics having been talking up Toni Erdman all year long but the American public still hasn't gotten much of a look at it and while A Man Called Ove was a likable crowd pleaser, I didn't think it was an award-worthy picture. I'll go with The Salesman because its an easy thumb in the eye of our new President's foreign policy without being terribly controversial. I don't know if anyone saw the film (though I am an admirer of Asghar Farhadi) but seeing the winners accept their award by satellite will speak volumes free of Michael Moore or Molotov cocktail.
Best Animated Feature -- Three foreign nominees and no Finding Dory (the 2nd highest grossing film of the year)? Interesting. Another chance to bring Lin-Manual to the stage or throw a bone to Zootopia, a huge springtime hit (though I found it to be a twisted paranoid thriller of a kids' movie). I'll take Moana, it was lovable and had a lot of Oscar-friendly elements.
Best Adapted Screenplay -- Everyone's gonna wanna vote for Moonlight but then they're gonna see Fences and want that one, too. Tough call but I'll take the Moonlight crowd over the Fences crowd.
Best Original Screenplay -- Personally I thought Hell or High Water was the best of these five films (and the best original screenplay to boot) but this is the chance to choose Manchester By the Sea over La La Land. I think Lonergan gets the trophy.
Best Director -- La La Land is a very easy choice (win #6). If Manchester By the Sea has any momentum here's where it comes into effect but I think the big mo stays with la la.
Best Supporting Actress -- This is a two horse race: Michelle Williams and Viola Davis. Could go either way, they're both well respected and long overdue, I'll take Viola Davis.
Best Supporting Actor -- This category is wide open. Folks like Mike Shannon and this could be a good time to anoint him but honestly that movie is terrible (and he's not particularly noteworthy in it). Jeff Bridges already won his Oscar (and Ben Foster should've been the nominee from that movie anyway). Hedges is the representative from a popular (but horribly muted) film but no one knows who he is and he is strangely minimal to the action of the film. Did anyone see Lion? I think I'll go with Mahershala Ali because people loved Moonlight and this is a chance to give it a prize.
Best Actress -- The money is on Isabelle Huppert but I thought that movie was...just weird and I didn't really understand her performance. I love Huppert as much as the next guy but Meryl Streep's 14th best performance (that seems about right for Florence Foster Jenkins, a film I really liked btw) is still way more eye opening and invigorating. I think folks admired Natalie Portman in Jackie but, man, that movie....that movie is dumb...just dumb. Did anyone see Loving? I'll go with Emma Stone (win #7 for La La Land).
Best Actor -- Casey Affleck got the early buzz but Manchester is the kind of film that does not live up to the overwhelming hype and neither does its lead performance; Denzel is the crowd's best buddy but he's already won and Fences wasn't much a hit; Viggo is really great but did anyone see Captain Fantastic?; I first noticed Andrew Garfield in 99 Homes last year (he and Mike Shannon were both more award-worthy last year than this year....that no one saw), but this is just a pat on the head nomination. I'll take Ryan Gosling to finally win one and to keep the La La Land avalanche coming (win #8).
Best Picture -- La La Land (win #9). Along with Best Director, this is is the easiest pick of the night. The film was...not bad...and for what it was trying to do, that is plenty enough successful to earn a big pay day on Oscar night (especially in such a weak season).
The rundown: La La Land (9), Moonlight (3), Moana (2), (1) each for Manchester By the Sea, Fences, OJ: Made in America, Rogue One, Jackie, Suicide Squad, The Salesman.
Sunday, February 26, 2017
Thursday, February 23, 2017
NBA Deadline Recap
Man...I haven't written about NBA once this season...I'm off my game. I've been watching a ton still, just not writing down my observations due to a new job (and looks like an even newer job soon) and a new lovely in my life (no complaints on that one). I';m not as up on the salaries as in previous years but I'm ready to get back into it and the trade deadline is a good opportunity. Here we go.
Hornets get Miles Plumlee; Bucks get Roy Hibbert (stay tuned) and Spencer Hawes
The Hornets got rid of two not-so-important vets for a young guy (with Carolina ties) who gives them a little more life off their bench; not moving the needle but not a bad move for them. The Bucks get rid of a guy who is really expensive for a veteran shotblocker/trade bait and a low cost veteran off the bench; basically they're moving off future salary and adding a tad more perimeter scoring. This deal ain't shaking up the Eastern conference playoff standings in any way.
Blazers get Jusef Nurkic, Nuggets 2017 1st rd pick; Nuggets get Mason Plumlee, Blazers 2018 2nd rd pick
I'm still a fan of Nurkic, a cartoonish big man who fell out of favor after the rise of Jokic but I'm not sure his low block dominance is a better fit than Plumlee, who isn't much of a scorer but is a solid ball handler for a big man. Given that the Blazers are way off where I thought they'd be, perhaps they'd rather look toward the future with a young big and a 1st rd pick than try to make it work with another passer. The Nuggets no longer needed Nurkic and I guess a good passer fits nicely in their rotation. Not a huge upgrade for either team but not a step back either.
Hornets get Chris Andersen, cash; Cavs get Hornets 2017 2nd pick (top 55 protected)
Andersen is hurt, isn't he? And he never plays anyway. Clearly the Cavs would rather have room to bring in a vet that might actually contribute. The Hornets get nothing, give nothing, but pick up a coupla bucks for the end of the year office party.
Raptors Serge Ibaka; Magic get Terrence Ross, Raptors 2017 1st rd pick
This is a nice pick up for the Raptors (although Ibaka may do nothing more than clog the bench on his way to somewhere else), adding a competent veteran who contributes on both sides of the court gives them a counter to Love and/or Lebron come playoff time. Ibaka was never gonna last in Orlando but I'm sure the Magic were hoping he'd be a better trade chip than this. That said, I've always liked Ross and this should be a good draft, even a pick in the bottom third might still could yield a plum and since Ibaka was always just bait, I think the Magic did pretty well here (which is not something I've said about them for the last few years).
Pelicans get Demarcus Cousins, Omri Casspi; Kings get Buddy Hield, Langston Galloway, Tyreke Evans, 2017 Pelicans 1st rd pick, 2018 Pelicans 2nd rd pick
Here it is, the big one. The Kings finally give up on the guy they've been unable to please for a handful of future prospects and an expiring contract...isn't that always the deal that was gonna happen? We've been waiting for a Boogie Blockbuster for years now and while this seems anticlimactic, the Kings were never gonna get as good a player back, so this looks kinda normal to me. The Kings get Hield (me and Vivek like him better than everybody else, but I still think he can be a top notch shooter), Galloway (a hard working young ballhandler, not the most talented guy but the Kings need all the self-motivated players they can get), Evans (I suspect he gets waived, on his way to...Atlanta? Cleveland?), a 1st rd pick in a good draft and a 2nd rd pick because...hey, people like 2nd rd picks. Could they have done better? Almost certainly but they could've done worse (this is the Kings we're talking about, I guess that caveat goes without saying). Also, it helps them tank now, bulking up their own draft pick. (Ironic, right, that they covet draft picks when they're only two good picks in the last ten years just got swapped for each other?) As for the Pelicans, it'll take time to gel and they're still soft on perimeter scoring but at least I get I get to watch my two favorite Wildcats miss the playoffs on one team instead of two. An underrated part of this deal is Casspi, an occasional deadly outside shooter, which the Pelicans need very much. Can the Pelicans sneak into the playoffs? Ehhhh, maybe. I like them to get past the Kings and Blazers now but I think the Nuggets and Grizzlies hang in there. (The upcoming free agency period should be quite a bit more exciting in New Orleans, though)
Rockets get Lou Williams, Marcelo Huertas; Lakers get Corey Brewer, Tyler Ennis, Rockets 2017 1st rd pick (and shook up their front office) (two separate deals but I'm squishing 'em)
These deals were clearly dreamed up by an accountant somewhere because I'm not seeing much change for either side. The Rockets had to upgrade Brewer but I'm not convinced Williams is that guy. And the Lakers had to...uh...I dunno, not sure what they get out of this. I can see them moving on from Williams but Brewer isn't part of their future, Ennis is still young enough that maybe he gets some run but I don't see him as a long time Laker either. The Lakers get an extra late 1st rounder and move off some veteran salary, while the Rockets get a more reliable scoring option off the bench. Neither of these are earth-shattering deals.
Wizards get Bojan Bodanovic, Chris McCullough; Nets get Andrew Nicholson, Marcus Thornton (waived), Wizards 2017 1st rd pick
I think the Wizards got the best of this swap. Bojan is a solid shooter, McCullough could still be a fine young big man and all they give up is a late 1st round draft pick, which I think is a good enough move. The Nets need all the youth they can get so I guess every draft pick is valuable to them but they gave up (to my mind) the two best players in this deal for a salary dump and the hopes they can turn that pick into someone like....oh, I dunno....Chris McCullough.
Hawks get Ersan Ilyasova; Sixers get Tiago Splitter, 2 Hawks 2nd rd picks
Ilyasova (which is actually Turkish for 'Chris Gatling') has now played for every team in the league twice--in just the last 3 years. Man, it just wouldn't be a trade deadline with Ersan in the mix. He's a reliable (if unspectacular) rotation guy, thought he kinda worked for the Sixers, not sure what he brings to the Hawks. Splitter has been injury-plagued in recent years but clearly this is a salary dump for the Hawks, not sure what he brings to the Sixers (except two more 2nd rd picks to throw on the last of the Hinkie haul).
Mavs get Nerlens Noel; Sixers get Justin Anderson, Andrew Bogut, Mavs 2017 1st rd pick
The Sixers have been trying to unload Nerlens for ages now and I think this isn't a bad deal for them. I like Justin Anderson and this pick should be a pretty good one for a guy they didn't really need (I assume Bogut will be waived). The Mavs get a rim protector to build around going forward and while I kinda like Anderson, they've now got a tantalizing piece to lure free agents this summer. The Mavs are currentl 12th in the West and this deal doesn't change that but this move is about next year.
Nets get KJ McDaniels; Rockets get....well....nothing
I forgot McDaniels even played for the Rockets (I guess because he didn't). Remember his 15 minutes back in Philly a few years back? He had a brief run as a high flying shot blocker and crazy wing shooter that got him promptly traded away. The Nets got nothing better to do, might as well see if he's got another nice run in him.
Thunder get Taj Gibson, Doug McDermott; Bulls get Cameron Payne, Anthony Morrow, Joffrey Lauvergne
The Thunder get a veteran leader off the bench and the perimeter shooting they've been dying for for years. The Bulls get younger and cheaper and continue to peel off one more of Thibodeau's soldiers. Taj was so important to the Bulls but I'm not sure he means that much to the Thunder and McDermott is talented but hasn't exactly set the world on fire, will either of them get more opportunity in OKC? I'm not sure. Some are down on Payne but I'd already put him ahead of Rondo and MCW, so I look forward to seeing him get some playing time. Lauvergne is a nice young player, we'll see if he fits in there, I guess Morrow can get some of McDermott's time but hardly a move for the future.
Nuggets get Roy Hibbert; Bucks get Nuggets 2017 2nd rd pick
The Nuggets can offer Hibbert one last shot at being the down low presence he used to be and it sounds weird but Jameer Nelson is the kind of crafty veteran that can get the most out of him. The collection of youngsters in Denver is exciting to watch and I think Hibbert can give them a bit of veteran presence (or perhaps he's already been waived, either way).
Suns gets Mike Scott; Hawks get cash
All I know about Mike Scott (and I would certainly never say this to his face): goofiest looking tats I've ever seen in my life. Looks like he gave a kindergarten class some sharpies and let them go to town on his torso. (And didn't he get busted for selling weed last summer?)
Raptors get PJ Tucker; Suns get Jared Sullinger, 2 Raptors 2nd rd picks
The Raptors get a hungry forward to step in do some dirty work (should platoon nicely with Patrick Patterson) and give up only a guy that wasn't working out for them anywhere. The Suns get a Hinkie-ish collection of picks and can offer some playing time to see if Sullinger can actually become something.
It looks to me like the Raptors were big winner of this year's trade deadline, which is a pleasant surprise considering their usual stand-pat style. Tucker will play for them and Ibaka has a chance to be a really good player again and basically all they gave up was Terrence Ross (but they've got enough wing scoring) and a so-so 1st round pick. Not bad. The Pelicans and Kings are radically changed but neither will affect this year's playoff race. The Wizards and Mavs are upgraded but not much else seems meaningful looking around the league, a lot of bean counting moves but nothing on the court. The 2nd half of this season doesn't look it will be terribly different from the 1st half.
Hornets get Miles Plumlee; Bucks get Roy Hibbert (stay tuned) and Spencer Hawes
The Hornets got rid of two not-so-important vets for a young guy (with Carolina ties) who gives them a little more life off their bench; not moving the needle but not a bad move for them. The Bucks get rid of a guy who is really expensive for a veteran shotblocker/trade bait and a low cost veteran off the bench; basically they're moving off future salary and adding a tad more perimeter scoring. This deal ain't shaking up the Eastern conference playoff standings in any way.
Blazers get Jusef Nurkic, Nuggets 2017 1st rd pick; Nuggets get Mason Plumlee, Blazers 2018 2nd rd pick
I'm still a fan of Nurkic, a cartoonish big man who fell out of favor after the rise of Jokic but I'm not sure his low block dominance is a better fit than Plumlee, who isn't much of a scorer but is a solid ball handler for a big man. Given that the Blazers are way off where I thought they'd be, perhaps they'd rather look toward the future with a young big and a 1st rd pick than try to make it work with another passer. The Nuggets no longer needed Nurkic and I guess a good passer fits nicely in their rotation. Not a huge upgrade for either team but not a step back either.
Hornets get Chris Andersen, cash; Cavs get Hornets 2017 2nd pick (top 55 protected)
Andersen is hurt, isn't he? And he never plays anyway. Clearly the Cavs would rather have room to bring in a vet that might actually contribute. The Hornets get nothing, give nothing, but pick up a coupla bucks for the end of the year office party.
Raptors Serge Ibaka; Magic get Terrence Ross, Raptors 2017 1st rd pick
This is a nice pick up for the Raptors (although Ibaka may do nothing more than clog the bench on his way to somewhere else), adding a competent veteran who contributes on both sides of the court gives them a counter to Love and/or Lebron come playoff time. Ibaka was never gonna last in Orlando but I'm sure the Magic were hoping he'd be a better trade chip than this. That said, I've always liked Ross and this should be a good draft, even a pick in the bottom third might still could yield a plum and since Ibaka was always just bait, I think the Magic did pretty well here (which is not something I've said about them for the last few years).
Pelicans get Demarcus Cousins, Omri Casspi; Kings get Buddy Hield, Langston Galloway, Tyreke Evans, 2017 Pelicans 1st rd pick, 2018 Pelicans 2nd rd pick
Here it is, the big one. The Kings finally give up on the guy they've been unable to please for a handful of future prospects and an expiring contract...isn't that always the deal that was gonna happen? We've been waiting for a Boogie Blockbuster for years now and while this seems anticlimactic, the Kings were never gonna get as good a player back, so this looks kinda normal to me. The Kings get Hield (me and Vivek like him better than everybody else, but I still think he can be a top notch shooter), Galloway (a hard working young ballhandler, not the most talented guy but the Kings need all the self-motivated players they can get), Evans (I suspect he gets waived, on his way to...Atlanta? Cleveland?), a 1st rd pick in a good draft and a 2nd rd pick because...hey, people like 2nd rd picks. Could they have done better? Almost certainly but they could've done worse (this is the Kings we're talking about, I guess that caveat goes without saying). Also, it helps them tank now, bulking up their own draft pick. (Ironic, right, that they covet draft picks when they're only two good picks in the last ten years just got swapped for each other?) As for the Pelicans, it'll take time to gel and they're still soft on perimeter scoring but at least I get I get to watch my two favorite Wildcats miss the playoffs on one team instead of two. An underrated part of this deal is Casspi, an occasional deadly outside shooter, which the Pelicans need very much. Can the Pelicans sneak into the playoffs? Ehhhh, maybe. I like them to get past the Kings and Blazers now but I think the Nuggets and Grizzlies hang in there. (The upcoming free agency period should be quite a bit more exciting in New Orleans, though)
Rockets get Lou Williams, Marcelo Huertas; Lakers get Corey Brewer, Tyler Ennis, Rockets 2017 1st rd pick (and shook up their front office) (two separate deals but I'm squishing 'em)
These deals were clearly dreamed up by an accountant somewhere because I'm not seeing much change for either side. The Rockets had to upgrade Brewer but I'm not convinced Williams is that guy. And the Lakers had to...uh...I dunno, not sure what they get out of this. I can see them moving on from Williams but Brewer isn't part of their future, Ennis is still young enough that maybe he gets some run but I don't see him as a long time Laker either. The Lakers get an extra late 1st rounder and move off some veteran salary, while the Rockets get a more reliable scoring option off the bench. Neither of these are earth-shattering deals.
Wizards get Bojan Bodanovic, Chris McCullough; Nets get Andrew Nicholson, Marcus Thornton (waived), Wizards 2017 1st rd pick
I think the Wizards got the best of this swap. Bojan is a solid shooter, McCullough could still be a fine young big man and all they give up is a late 1st round draft pick, which I think is a good enough move. The Nets need all the youth they can get so I guess every draft pick is valuable to them but they gave up (to my mind) the two best players in this deal for a salary dump and the hopes they can turn that pick into someone like....oh, I dunno....Chris McCullough.
Hawks get Ersan Ilyasova; Sixers get Tiago Splitter, 2 Hawks 2nd rd picks
Ilyasova (which is actually Turkish for 'Chris Gatling') has now played for every team in the league twice--in just the last 3 years. Man, it just wouldn't be a trade deadline with Ersan in the mix. He's a reliable (if unspectacular) rotation guy, thought he kinda worked for the Sixers, not sure what he brings to the Hawks. Splitter has been injury-plagued in recent years but clearly this is a salary dump for the Hawks, not sure what he brings to the Sixers (except two more 2nd rd picks to throw on the last of the Hinkie haul).
Mavs get Nerlens Noel; Sixers get Justin Anderson, Andrew Bogut, Mavs 2017 1st rd pick
The Sixers have been trying to unload Nerlens for ages now and I think this isn't a bad deal for them. I like Justin Anderson and this pick should be a pretty good one for a guy they didn't really need (I assume Bogut will be waived). The Mavs get a rim protector to build around going forward and while I kinda like Anderson, they've now got a tantalizing piece to lure free agents this summer. The Mavs are currentl 12th in the West and this deal doesn't change that but this move is about next year.
Nets get KJ McDaniels; Rockets get....well....nothing
I forgot McDaniels even played for the Rockets (I guess because he didn't). Remember his 15 minutes back in Philly a few years back? He had a brief run as a high flying shot blocker and crazy wing shooter that got him promptly traded away. The Nets got nothing better to do, might as well see if he's got another nice run in him.
Thunder get Taj Gibson, Doug McDermott; Bulls get Cameron Payne, Anthony Morrow, Joffrey Lauvergne
The Thunder get a veteran leader off the bench and the perimeter shooting they've been dying for for years. The Bulls get younger and cheaper and continue to peel off one more of Thibodeau's soldiers. Taj was so important to the Bulls but I'm not sure he means that much to the Thunder and McDermott is talented but hasn't exactly set the world on fire, will either of them get more opportunity in OKC? I'm not sure. Some are down on Payne but I'd already put him ahead of Rondo and MCW, so I look forward to seeing him get some playing time. Lauvergne is a nice young player, we'll see if he fits in there, I guess Morrow can get some of McDermott's time but hardly a move for the future.
Nuggets get Roy Hibbert; Bucks get Nuggets 2017 2nd rd pick
The Nuggets can offer Hibbert one last shot at being the down low presence he used to be and it sounds weird but Jameer Nelson is the kind of crafty veteran that can get the most out of him. The collection of youngsters in Denver is exciting to watch and I think Hibbert can give them a bit of veteran presence (or perhaps he's already been waived, either way).
Suns gets Mike Scott; Hawks get cash
All I know about Mike Scott (and I would certainly never say this to his face): goofiest looking tats I've ever seen in my life. Looks like he gave a kindergarten class some sharpies and let them go to town on his torso. (And didn't he get busted for selling weed last summer?)
Raptors get PJ Tucker; Suns get Jared Sullinger, 2 Raptors 2nd rd picks
The Raptors get a hungry forward to step in do some dirty work (should platoon nicely with Patrick Patterson) and give up only a guy that wasn't working out for them anywhere. The Suns get a Hinkie-ish collection of picks and can offer some playing time to see if Sullinger can actually become something.
It looks to me like the Raptors were big winner of this year's trade deadline, which is a pleasant surprise considering their usual stand-pat style. Tucker will play for them and Ibaka has a chance to be a really good player again and basically all they gave up was Terrence Ross (but they've got enough wing scoring) and a so-so 1st round pick. Not bad. The Pelicans and Kings are radically changed but neither will affect this year's playoff race. The Wizards and Mavs are upgraded but not much else seems meaningful looking around the league, a lot of bean counting moves but nothing on the court. The 2nd half of this season doesn't look it will be terribly different from the 1st half.
Sunday, February 5, 2017
Super Bowl
The last football game of the year...always a bit melancholy. Aussie Open got 2017 off to a great start and I think the Super Bowl will be a good one too. We don't often get two killer offenses in the big game.
I thought the Falcons had the best offense in the league this year and the Pats were their usual high efficiency selves. The beauty of tonight's game is that while both teams are high powered offenses, they're both led by defensive minded coaches. Two weeks of prep time should make for some brilliant chess.
It is not uncommon for Super Bowl squads to come out tight, for 1st quarters to be awkward low scoring affairs. Tonight's contest will likely play out that way with a twist: these two squads are both offensive juggernauts so I think the nerves will be on the other side of the ball. I like both teams to score on their opening drives and then for the defenses to find their footing, making the rest of the 1st half a sloppy slog. I'll say Falcons 13-7 at halftime.
I like both defenses to play well but they'll both be cracked eventually. I think the model for tonight's game is the Panthers-Pats Super Bowl: low scoring for a while then an explosion of points in the 4th. Both of these offenses are too good to be stopped for long but I look forward to both coaching staffs keeping the defensive intensity high. (Kooky prediction: if the team that gets the ball first in the 2nd half scores, I think they'll win)
I like the Falcons 34-27. I'll take Matt Ryan as MVP.
I thought the Falcons had the best offense in the league this year and the Pats were their usual high efficiency selves. The beauty of tonight's game is that while both teams are high powered offenses, they're both led by defensive minded coaches. Two weeks of prep time should make for some brilliant chess.
It is not uncommon for Super Bowl squads to come out tight, for 1st quarters to be awkward low scoring affairs. Tonight's contest will likely play out that way with a twist: these two squads are both offensive juggernauts so I think the nerves will be on the other side of the ball. I like both teams to score on their opening drives and then for the defenses to find their footing, making the rest of the 1st half a sloppy slog. I'll say Falcons 13-7 at halftime.
I like both defenses to play well but they'll both be cracked eventually. I think the model for tonight's game is the Panthers-Pats Super Bowl: low scoring for a while then an explosion of points in the 4th. Both of these offenses are too good to be stopped for long but I look forward to both coaching staffs keeping the defensive intensity high. (Kooky prediction: if the team that gets the ball first in the 2nd half scores, I think they'll win)
I like the Falcons 34-27. I'll take Matt Ryan as MVP.
Australian Open
Federer and Nadal....five sets....oh man....just....jeez....wow....god damn good day to love tennis. I don't even know what to say. What a brilliant way to start the 2017 sports season.
Saturday, January 21, 2017
NFL Final Four
NFC
Packers over Giants
NYG had the good defense going but a good D only inspires the bad Eli (makes bad teams good and good teams bad), so their strength becomes their weakness. Plus, Aaron Rodgers is just straight ballin' right now. This game really wasn't close--and OMG there was another fucking Hail Mary!
Seahawks over Lions
I thought Matt Stafford worked his ass off, thought he moved really well in the pocket, but he never had anyone to throw the ball to. The Lions this season had a fortuitous stretch of opponents and a pretty good offense. The Seahawks are looking kinda creaky but they're still plenty good enough to thump the Lions. This game, too, wasn't close.
Packers over Cowboys
I thought the Cowboys should've won this game, they had opportunities (and I'm blaming the philosophical approach, not the rookies, who I thought played pretty well), but they haven't been in the playoffs for a while and though they were the best team in the league, they weren't a complete enough team to stop prime Aaron Rodgers. I'm still not the impressed with the Packers: its just Rodgers by himself, that's tough to keep going in the NFL. Fascinating final 2-3 minutes of this game.
Falcons over Seahawks
The Falcons just straight pounded the Seahawks. The Seahawks started with an impressive TD drive and then did not much for the rest of the game. The Falcons were like a boxer that likes to get punched a little bit to get warmed up. The Falcons let the Seahawks do whatever they wanted on the first drive, gave them a false sense of confidence and then wore them down for the rest of the game.
Packers at Falcons
I was actually more impressed by the Falcons win over the Seahawks than I was by the Packers over the Cowboys. I know, I know: the Cowboys were the best team in the league this season and the Packers are peaking at just the right time, while the Seahawks are fading and jading and ready to fall apart. But the Falcons won by playing the game they've been playing all year long, whereas the Packers are clearly just making it up as they go, which is damn dangerous in the playoffs. I think the Packers could score some points but I am very confident the Falcons will score points--probably a lot of points. The Falcons are sliding into a high level groove, the Packers are rattling along with occasional bursts of brilliance. The fun money is obviously on Aaron Rodgers ballin' out, making 3-4 hero plays down the stretch and the old timey Pack offense rising again....but I ain't seeing it. The Falcon D is good enough to not get destroyed by the Packers and the Falcon O is probably the best in the league, rounding into shape at home at just the right time. I think Falcons run them out of the stadium. The Packers might get loose and run up the score but even then I still just can't see them outscoring the Falcons. I'll take the Falcons to win and cover (-6).
AFC
Texans over Raiders
I thought the Raiders had enough offense to get past the Texans but, man, Connor Cook looked like a flipped over turtle in the sun against that Texan pass rush. Right away you could tell the Raiders had no offense at all and while the Texans didn't look brilliant or anything, they did look like a perfectly ordinary NFL team while the Raiders looked like a beautiful sports car that's only got two tires on it (still beautiful but utterly useless).
Steelers over Dolphins
The Dolphins looked fine for the first few drives but once Matt Moore got hit...I haven't seen anyone drilled in the face like that Traci Lords in her prime (I dunno, too far?)...And they brought him back out! For one play he looked like a homeless man on the expressway, it was cringeworthy to watch. But once they got down to 3rd string, there was just no way they were gonna hang. I've been skeptical of the Steelers all year but they're way better than the Dolphins on a 3rd string QB.
Patriots over Texans
Do you see how this works: Tom Bady got exposed, the Pats played their worst game in years....and they effortlessly scored 30 points. Even on a bad day, they're gonna outscore most everyone they play. The Texan D really is one of the finest in the league--even while being decimated by injuries--but the Texans were never really in that game. Come on. The Pats started slow but they controlled the game comfortably throughout.
Steelers over Chiefs
The Chiefs were the better team, that D played well enough to keep Alex Smith in the game and the Chiefs offense had a few moments of looking pretty good. But not really. The Steelers moved the ball at will, they didn't pile up points but they ate up the clock, played solid D and avoided big mistakes. The Steelers are a veteran outfit that knows what they're doing. But that doesn't mean they're the better team on any given Sunday, it just means they'll play a professional game and expect to be in it at the end. I thought the Chiefs should've/could've won the game.
Steelers at Pats
The Pats on a bad day will still score a ton of points. I think they'll figure out the Steelers eventually and I suspect the Pats D will have some wrinkles for Roethlisberger and company. LaVeon Bell is the key to the Steeler attack now and the reason the Steelers can sit on leads and keep the other QB off the field. Belichik will stop Bell first and take his chances with Roethlisberger going over the top. If the Pats can avoid the big plays, they should easily take the Steelers. The Pats offense glides at this point and I don't think the Steelers will stop them. I'll take the Pats (-6) to win and cover.
I was flummoxed on the 1st round games, I had all four underdogs to at least cover, instead not one of them even put up a good game. The Raiders and Dolphins were cooked by injuries, the Lions and Giants were big play offenses that didn't get lucky. All four games were pretty flat.
The next round was good. Texans put on a pretty good show, the Seahawks started strong and looked kinda scary at first, while the Cowboys and Chiefs really should've played better at home but both still had chances to win late. But the winning teams were the better teams and the semi-finals looks pretty damn good after such a slow start to this season. The first half of the year had a weird shadow over it, all the teams (except Cowboys and Pats) looked mediocre, there was no real buzz about anything this year. But after Thanksgiving, NFL got really good. Its interesting for the Cowboys to be good again, they accounted for huge TV ratings all year. And these last three games are gonna make for good football.
I got Pats-Falcons for big trophy. Two really good offenses, two not bad defenses, shaping up to be a scorefest, haven't had one of those in a while.
Packers over Giants
NYG had the good defense going but a good D only inspires the bad Eli (makes bad teams good and good teams bad), so their strength becomes their weakness. Plus, Aaron Rodgers is just straight ballin' right now. This game really wasn't close--and OMG there was another fucking Hail Mary!
Seahawks over Lions
I thought Matt Stafford worked his ass off, thought he moved really well in the pocket, but he never had anyone to throw the ball to. The Lions this season had a fortuitous stretch of opponents and a pretty good offense. The Seahawks are looking kinda creaky but they're still plenty good enough to thump the Lions. This game, too, wasn't close.
Packers over Cowboys
I thought the Cowboys should've won this game, they had opportunities (and I'm blaming the philosophical approach, not the rookies, who I thought played pretty well), but they haven't been in the playoffs for a while and though they were the best team in the league, they weren't a complete enough team to stop prime Aaron Rodgers. I'm still not the impressed with the Packers: its just Rodgers by himself, that's tough to keep going in the NFL. Fascinating final 2-3 minutes of this game.
Falcons over Seahawks
The Falcons just straight pounded the Seahawks. The Seahawks started with an impressive TD drive and then did not much for the rest of the game. The Falcons were like a boxer that likes to get punched a little bit to get warmed up. The Falcons let the Seahawks do whatever they wanted on the first drive, gave them a false sense of confidence and then wore them down for the rest of the game.
Packers at Falcons
I was actually more impressed by the Falcons win over the Seahawks than I was by the Packers over the Cowboys. I know, I know: the Cowboys were the best team in the league this season and the Packers are peaking at just the right time, while the Seahawks are fading and jading and ready to fall apart. But the Falcons won by playing the game they've been playing all year long, whereas the Packers are clearly just making it up as they go, which is damn dangerous in the playoffs. I think the Packers could score some points but I am very confident the Falcons will score points--probably a lot of points. The Falcons are sliding into a high level groove, the Packers are rattling along with occasional bursts of brilliance. The fun money is obviously on Aaron Rodgers ballin' out, making 3-4 hero plays down the stretch and the old timey Pack offense rising again....but I ain't seeing it. The Falcon D is good enough to not get destroyed by the Packers and the Falcon O is probably the best in the league, rounding into shape at home at just the right time. I think Falcons run them out of the stadium. The Packers might get loose and run up the score but even then I still just can't see them outscoring the Falcons. I'll take the Falcons to win and cover (-6).
AFC
Texans over Raiders
I thought the Raiders had enough offense to get past the Texans but, man, Connor Cook looked like a flipped over turtle in the sun against that Texan pass rush. Right away you could tell the Raiders had no offense at all and while the Texans didn't look brilliant or anything, they did look like a perfectly ordinary NFL team while the Raiders looked like a beautiful sports car that's only got two tires on it (still beautiful but utterly useless).
Steelers over Dolphins
The Dolphins looked fine for the first few drives but once Matt Moore got hit...I haven't seen anyone drilled in the face like that Traci Lords in her prime (I dunno, too far?)...And they brought him back out! For one play he looked like a homeless man on the expressway, it was cringeworthy to watch. But once they got down to 3rd string, there was just no way they were gonna hang. I've been skeptical of the Steelers all year but they're way better than the Dolphins on a 3rd string QB.
Patriots over Texans
Do you see how this works: Tom Bady got exposed, the Pats played their worst game in years....and they effortlessly scored 30 points. Even on a bad day, they're gonna outscore most everyone they play. The Texan D really is one of the finest in the league--even while being decimated by injuries--but the Texans were never really in that game. Come on. The Pats started slow but they controlled the game comfortably throughout.
Steelers over Chiefs
The Chiefs were the better team, that D played well enough to keep Alex Smith in the game and the Chiefs offense had a few moments of looking pretty good. But not really. The Steelers moved the ball at will, they didn't pile up points but they ate up the clock, played solid D and avoided big mistakes. The Steelers are a veteran outfit that knows what they're doing. But that doesn't mean they're the better team on any given Sunday, it just means they'll play a professional game and expect to be in it at the end. I thought the Chiefs should've/could've won the game.
Steelers at Pats
The Pats on a bad day will still score a ton of points. I think they'll figure out the Steelers eventually and I suspect the Pats D will have some wrinkles for Roethlisberger and company. LaVeon Bell is the key to the Steeler attack now and the reason the Steelers can sit on leads and keep the other QB off the field. Belichik will stop Bell first and take his chances with Roethlisberger going over the top. If the Pats can avoid the big plays, they should easily take the Steelers. The Pats offense glides at this point and I don't think the Steelers will stop them. I'll take the Pats (-6) to win and cover.
I was flummoxed on the 1st round games, I had all four underdogs to at least cover, instead not one of them even put up a good game. The Raiders and Dolphins were cooked by injuries, the Lions and Giants were big play offenses that didn't get lucky. All four games were pretty flat.
The next round was good. Texans put on a pretty good show, the Seahawks started strong and looked kinda scary at first, while the Cowboys and Chiefs really should've played better at home but both still had chances to win late. But the winning teams were the better teams and the semi-finals looks pretty damn good after such a slow start to this season. The first half of the year had a weird shadow over it, all the teams (except Cowboys and Pats) looked mediocre, there was no real buzz about anything this year. But after Thanksgiving, NFL got really good. Its interesting for the Cowboys to be good again, they accounted for huge TV ratings all year. And these last three games are gonna make for good football.
I got Pats-Falcons for big trophy. Two really good offenses, two not bad defenses, shaping up to be a scorefest, haven't had one of those in a while.
Sunday, November 27, 2016
USA Soccer
USA Soccer made news this week but suddenly cutting ties with coach Jurgen Klinsmann and bringing back previous USA coach Bruce Arena. I applaud both moves: the first was long overdue, the second is the right move right now
I understand the initial interest in Klinsmann but I never understood the continued interest. He's been showing for a long time that he's not the right coach for this program. Honestly the fact that he came in 3rd with Germany in 2006 was kinda suspect to me. He looked like a guy that could motivational speeches but wasn't gonna be much of a tactician. And that's what he was at USA: in all the time he's been here, he's never had a coherent game plan and he's never shown any acumen at adjusting at halftime, and he's kind of a petulant punk-ass at the post-game presser. He just yells at players and throws them under the bus, I thought that act was tired a long time ago.
I understood the commitment it took to bring him in--and he was a good get for USA Soccer at the time--but that was sunk cost. I would've canned him after the 2014 World Cup. I was not moved by USA's performance and specifically I blamed Klinsmann for not making the most of the talent he had. He just looks at these players and thinks, 'They're not German, they can't be any good.' He doesn't know how to coach them (probably because he's just not a very good coach) and he should've been gone before the 2015 Gold Cup or the 2016 Copa America, neither of which were grand successes, I would've canned him after each of those tourneys too.
Is Bruce Arena the right guy? Short term: yes; long term: probably not. What USA needs right now is a sturdy hand that's gonna tell everybody what to do and then mold a game plan that utilizes each player's strengths, which is something Klinsmann never showed any aptitude for. Things aren't good but it isn't yet dire, we just need to straighten up and play right and we'll be fine. I think Arena can do that and I can't think of anyone else who could. Far from thinking of Arena as a hack or a retread I'd say he's the #1 contender. He's as worthy of the job as anyone in the world. He needs to get this team into the Cup and get them to play with some gusto while they're there. Klinsmann wasn't gonna get that but I think there are coaches that could get that of this USA team. All a matter of economy of scale: Klinsmann doesn't see enough talent, plenty of coaches see more talent than they've ever had before.
Arena is the man for now, is he the guy for the future? Probably not. I'm ready to go back to Europe. Klinsmann was a dud but there are plenty of Europeans that could elevate this squad, don't let Klinsmann spoil that. And don't let the Klinsmann episode make you think that are a ton of Americans ready for this job, Arena is one of the few. (I could be talked into Jason Kries but I haven't been yet)
My vote for next coach is Didier Deschamps. After 2018 he and France will likely be ready to part ways: the World Cup cycle is so long and over so suddenly, that hardly anyone lasts for two Cups. Either a coach does great and gets a better job or he does terrible and gets fired. So don't be surprised if Deschamps is job hunting in a coupla years. Would he want the USA gig? I have no idea. Are there better candidates? Surely they are, I just don't know them. Deschamps may be a ridiculous suggestion but Team USA could use some ridiculous. If Gulati wins re-election (I believe he's still unopposed), he'd probably have the mandate for one last crazy move. Maybe it's a do-able thing. Sounds good to me anyway.
Incidentally, I think Arena will accomplish the task of settling USA down and getting some W's. I am confident that actually we have more talent than we've ever had and Arena will recognize that and guide them wisely. He'll also be a prickly pear that rubs the media the wrong way and wins him no friends outside of the locker room....and will eventually cost him in the locker room too. I don't think he lasts longer than 2018 but I think til then he'll put on a good show, he'll get 'em playing like they ought to and we'll be primed for a nice Cup. And good riddance to Klinsmann; honestly I wouldn't be surprised if he never coach again, the England job was open twice this summer and he couldn't move the needle there. So where does he go? I'm guessing either he gets paid by Sky Sports or maybe BBC (his English is excellent) or else he just moves off to play golf for the rest of his life or something.
USA is moving in the right direction again. Time to make USA great again!
I understand the initial interest in Klinsmann but I never understood the continued interest. He's been showing for a long time that he's not the right coach for this program. Honestly the fact that he came in 3rd with Germany in 2006 was kinda suspect to me. He looked like a guy that could motivational speeches but wasn't gonna be much of a tactician. And that's what he was at USA: in all the time he's been here, he's never had a coherent game plan and he's never shown any acumen at adjusting at halftime, and he's kind of a petulant punk-ass at the post-game presser. He just yells at players and throws them under the bus, I thought that act was tired a long time ago.
I understood the commitment it took to bring him in--and he was a good get for USA Soccer at the time--but that was sunk cost. I would've canned him after the 2014 World Cup. I was not moved by USA's performance and specifically I blamed Klinsmann for not making the most of the talent he had. He just looks at these players and thinks, 'They're not German, they can't be any good.' He doesn't know how to coach them (probably because he's just not a very good coach) and he should've been gone before the 2015 Gold Cup or the 2016 Copa America, neither of which were grand successes, I would've canned him after each of those tourneys too.
Is Bruce Arena the right guy? Short term: yes; long term: probably not. What USA needs right now is a sturdy hand that's gonna tell everybody what to do and then mold a game plan that utilizes each player's strengths, which is something Klinsmann never showed any aptitude for. Things aren't good but it isn't yet dire, we just need to straighten up and play right and we'll be fine. I think Arena can do that and I can't think of anyone else who could. Far from thinking of Arena as a hack or a retread I'd say he's the #1 contender. He's as worthy of the job as anyone in the world. He needs to get this team into the Cup and get them to play with some gusto while they're there. Klinsmann wasn't gonna get that but I think there are coaches that could get that of this USA team. All a matter of economy of scale: Klinsmann doesn't see enough talent, plenty of coaches see more talent than they've ever had before.
Arena is the man for now, is he the guy for the future? Probably not. I'm ready to go back to Europe. Klinsmann was a dud but there are plenty of Europeans that could elevate this squad, don't let Klinsmann spoil that. And don't let the Klinsmann episode make you think that are a ton of Americans ready for this job, Arena is one of the few. (I could be talked into Jason Kries but I haven't been yet)
My vote for next coach is Didier Deschamps. After 2018 he and France will likely be ready to part ways: the World Cup cycle is so long and over so suddenly, that hardly anyone lasts for two Cups. Either a coach does great and gets a better job or he does terrible and gets fired. So don't be surprised if Deschamps is job hunting in a coupla years. Would he want the USA gig? I have no idea. Are there better candidates? Surely they are, I just don't know them. Deschamps may be a ridiculous suggestion but Team USA could use some ridiculous. If Gulati wins re-election (I believe he's still unopposed), he'd probably have the mandate for one last crazy move. Maybe it's a do-able thing. Sounds good to me anyway.
Incidentally, I think Arena will accomplish the task of settling USA down and getting some W's. I am confident that actually we have more talent than we've ever had and Arena will recognize that and guide them wisely. He'll also be a prickly pear that rubs the media the wrong way and wins him no friends outside of the locker room....and will eventually cost him in the locker room too. I don't think he lasts longer than 2018 but I think til then he'll put on a good show, he'll get 'em playing like they ought to and we'll be primed for a nice Cup. And good riddance to Klinsmann; honestly I wouldn't be surprised if he never coach again, the England job was open twice this summer and he couldn't move the needle there. So where does he go? I'm guessing either he gets paid by Sky Sports or maybe BBC (his English is excellent) or else he just moves off to play golf for the rest of his life or something.
USA is moving in the right direction again. Time to make USA great again!
Thursday, November 10, 2016
AFC (Week Nine)
Pats -- The offense is still the best in the business. Defense is okay but not too many teams are gonna outscore 'em.
Raiders -- The funnest team around, so even though they don't have the backbone of a solid winner, I'm still rooting for them. The offense is really good and the defense is getting there.
Steelers -- Yeah, they're stumbling but Big Ben over the top will beat most everyone they play. Really kinda mediocre but they got street smarts and plenty of offensive weapons.
Broncos, Chiefs -- Not sure which is better (or maybe it's worse). Chiefs are a solid grinding team that will outwork most teams on the field. The Broncos have a knockout pass rush and pretty good offense. Neither seems like a world beater but both will be a tough out down the line.
Bengals -- Like the Cards, I think the Bengals peaked last year and instead of hitting the ground running, they're making up lost ground. I think the Cards are still good enough to squeak into the playoffs but I don't see either side of the ball being good often enough to go deep.
Dolphins -- Perhaps it's premature to put them up this high but I'm starting to believe that pass rush and that running game could really do damage. They've got the good they just need the consistency (ugh, am I really betting on Tannehill?).
Chargers -- Like the Saints, they can sling it around and run up the score and the D even has moments, too. On good days they'll sting people but they also look plenty capable of botching easy ones.
Ravens -- D is still really good but, man, I think the offense is kinda terrible. They keep games close but after all these years I'm still not into Flacco: he's not a closer and a team with this kind of defense desperately needs a closer. They could be good enough to win games but I'm just not feeling it.
Bills -- They're feisty, they've got decent talent on both sides of the ball but they're just too sloppy and inconsistent be anything more than a spoiler.
Texans -- I guess they'll win the division but they are so uninspiring.
Colts -- They've got Andrew Luck and not much else. But the competition is pretty soft and the Colts might still pull it out but can you see them beating anyone in the playoffs? I don't.
Titans, Jags -- Sometimes they're okay, sometimes they're terrible. I'm never really sure what makes them what each week.
Jets -- Doesn't the coach look like he's experimenting out there? He's not trying to lose but he doesn't seem all that eager to win, he's just casually trying stuff out there to see what works, he's game planning for next year after they find themselves a new QB.
Browns -- They're plucky, they try hard, they'll win one of these days.
Raiders -- The funnest team around, so even though they don't have the backbone of a solid winner, I'm still rooting for them. The offense is really good and the defense is getting there.
Steelers -- Yeah, they're stumbling but Big Ben over the top will beat most everyone they play. Really kinda mediocre but they got street smarts and plenty of offensive weapons.
Broncos, Chiefs -- Not sure which is better (or maybe it's worse). Chiefs are a solid grinding team that will outwork most teams on the field. The Broncos have a knockout pass rush and pretty good offense. Neither seems like a world beater but both will be a tough out down the line.
Bengals -- Like the Cards, I think the Bengals peaked last year and instead of hitting the ground running, they're making up lost ground. I think the Cards are still good enough to squeak into the playoffs but I don't see either side of the ball being good often enough to go deep.
Dolphins -- Perhaps it's premature to put them up this high but I'm starting to believe that pass rush and that running game could really do damage. They've got the good they just need the consistency (ugh, am I really betting on Tannehill?).
Chargers -- Like the Saints, they can sling it around and run up the score and the D even has moments, too. On good days they'll sting people but they also look plenty capable of botching easy ones.
Ravens -- D is still really good but, man, I think the offense is kinda terrible. They keep games close but after all these years I'm still not into Flacco: he's not a closer and a team with this kind of defense desperately needs a closer. They could be good enough to win games but I'm just not feeling it.
Bills -- They're feisty, they've got decent talent on both sides of the ball but they're just too sloppy and inconsistent be anything more than a spoiler.
Texans -- I guess they'll win the division but they are so uninspiring.
Colts -- They've got Andrew Luck and not much else. But the competition is pretty soft and the Colts might still pull it out but can you see them beating anyone in the playoffs? I don't.
Titans, Jags -- Sometimes they're okay, sometimes they're terrible. I'm never really sure what makes them what each week.
Jets -- Doesn't the coach look like he's experimenting out there? He's not trying to lose but he doesn't seem all that eager to win, he's just casually trying stuff out there to see what works, he's game planning for next year after they find themselves a new QB.
Browns -- They're plucky, they try hard, they'll win one of these days.
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