2020 Academy Awards

Documentary
I have not seen any of the nominees and this category does offer a kooky conundrum: I suspect Honeyland is everyone's favorite title but American Company is the reason Barry and Shelly Obama were thought to be in attendance (no dice, the Obamas will be eating microwave popcorn in their jammies like the rest of us). Honeyland is an uplifting movie about nature at its loveliest and most optimistic but American Factory gives all those good Cali liberals a chance to vote for Obama for a third time (ha!). As for the other three titles, I just can't imagine they're gonna have any shot. And if the Obamas aren't in attendance, I'd be surprise if a nuts-and-bolts blue collar worker movie actually won. (I had two docs in my top ten this year: Apollo 11 (a reminder that people used to set out to do things and then do them) and Hail Satan? (an eye-opening look at the practices and crusades of the Satanic Temple, which it turns out cares way more about the American people than any political candidate I've ever seen)).  My pick: Honeyland 

Visual Effects
Actually I only saw two of the nominees in this category: 1917 (amazingly good) and The Irishman (amazingly divisive). Avengers and Star Wars and Disney, yeah yeah yeah, but I thought Ad Astra was good enough to be here and that Midsommar was quite sly in its use of visual effects. But I suspect 1917 will nab a lot of down ballot votes like this one and it is a worthy recipient. (My personal fave: 1917) My pick: 1917

Sound Editing and Sound Mixing
Yeah, I don't do the Oscar-picking thing the way it is supposed to be done as I think of this as one category that I would call Sound Design. And the Academy clearly thinks pretty much the same way since (as per usual) four of the five nominees are the same across the two categories: 1917, Joker, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Ford v Ferrari, all of which are perfectly reasonable candidates. I suspect 1917 sweeps both of these because the film was a technical marvel, so giving it the tech awards makes sense, and often these two categories are where you see the big winner swallow up a bunch of momentum. (Personal faves: 1917, Ad Astra) My pick: 1917 to take both

Original Song
I dunno, this category means absolutely nothing to me year after year. My gut is that Sir Elton has already won an Oscar (and that Bohemian Rhapsody last year took care of everyone's classic rock jones), that Frozen II was a fine little hit but not the cultural juggernaut the original was, that Toy Story 4 made some money but didn't turn any heads and....wait, what is Breakthrough? I'm going with Harriet largely because I don't think Cynthas Erivo has much shot at Best Actress. (My personal fave: uh, so I guess Guava Island isn't eligible? Nor is "Anima"?) My pick: Harriet

Original Score
Yeah, I only notice scores when they're terrible, so I've got no ear for this one (Them That Follow was the only film this year that featured a score that was so--uh, not bad, let's say inappropriate--that it caught my attention). So far I've been leaning toward 1917 for anything I'm not sure of, but I'll go with Little Women here (the other title I expect to win more than you think), though I wouldn't be shocked to see John Williams win for one more Star Wars movie or Joker to earn some recognition for being such a volatile hit or for Marriage Story to be remembered for its one lovely and enjoyable quality. (My personal fave: The Dead Don't Die (Jarmusch's worst movie but when it comes to music, even terrible Jarmusch is still better than everything else)) My pick: Little Women

Makeup/Hair
Not sure why 1917 is in here, they mostly wear clunky helmets and sweat their asses off--not once while watching this movie was I thinking hair and makeup--but this is what happens when a title rolls heavy into Oscar night. Joker and Judy are more reasonable choices here, I suppose, and Maleficent is as well. But I thought Bombshell's hair and makeup was among the best I've seen in years, Charlize Theron was utterly transformed and that's impressive. (My personal fave: The Lighthouse (not a particularly good movie, but visually it was a great piece of work and the hair and makeup really made a difference)). My pick: Bombshell

Costume
Jojo Rabbit, Little Women and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood display a wide range of looks and a variability that was admirable. The Irishman had a ton of characters across a lot of time periods but I didn't notice anything particularly notable about the costuming and Joker had a unique look but a dearth of characters or situations that call for innovative costuming. This category is gonna be, I think, more important than you realize: I got a feeling the winner of this also wins Best Picture. (My fave: Rocketman (dang, no love for the Elton biopic over here?)) My pick: Little Women (but keep an eye on Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)

Production Design
Often this is a category that leaves me scratching my head but this season I get all these choices: they're complicated films that have intricate and specific visual looks to them and that begins on the set. 1917 is a magnificent piece of work because the sheer amount of set that would need to be dressed at any given moment must've been a fuckin' football field! Once Upon a Time in Hollywood had numerous movie-within-movie scenes, which doubles the level of difficulty. Jojo Rabbit is a kid movie's that has to avoid looking like Nazi propaganda--not as easy it sounds! The Irishman had a wide variety of sets across time periods and ethnicities, etc., and just a mammoth number of scenes. Parasite is all about the differences between two worlds--which means it has to create two entirely different worlds, one of which gets (*spoiler alert*) pretty well destroyed. This is a 'cascade' category: often this goes to the Best Picture winner but I think this stays within the sidebar technical achievement cascade. (Personal fave: Midsommar, The Lighthouse, The Last Black Man in San Francisco all stood out to me) My pick: 1917 (could be Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)

Editing
The fact that 1917 isn't here is the eye-opener (yeah, I get it it looks like it's got no editing...that's how fuckin' staggeringly great the editing was!), and this would've been an easy win for 1917, too. Oh well. Ford v Ferarri features excellent editing (not merely a variety of action scenes but a wide complexity of dialogue scenes, as well), but Jojo Rabbit and Joker and Parasite are kinda puzzling choices: they're fine films but nothing about the editing seemed to be the real cornerstone of any of these films. I think this statue has the name Thelma Schoonmaker already etched on it--removing 1917 from the running pretty much tells you the Academy already knows where this is going. (Personal fave: Uncut Gems (lot of handheld camera, lot of action, lot of characters, lot of stuff going on at all times, this was really well put together)) My pick: The Irishman

Cinematography
I had three of the nominees in my top five (I had Midsommar and Uncut Gems over Joker and The Irishman), so I feel like I get where the Academy is going here. Okay, here's the point where I think I should lay out my main Oscars thesis: I don't think any of the obvious front runners (1917, The Irishman, Joker, Parasite) win Best Picture. I think it goes to either Little Women or Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. That said, I think 1917 wins a ton of awards but not the big prize, so does Cinematography hang with 1917's run on the tech awards or is it a precursor to the Best Picture surprise (in which case, keep an eye on Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)? There are going to be a lot of awards to keep an eye on this year and this could be one of them. (Personal fave: 1917) My pick: 1917

International Feature
Feels like Parasite is a slam dunk over here, but don't sleep on Pain & Glory or Honeyland. That said, Almodovar has had his Oscar glory in the past and I think Honeyland wins Best Documentary, so...yeah, I've already talked myself out of this not being a slam dunk. (Personal fave: Parasite) My pick: Parasite

Animated Feature
I dunno...I'll go with I Lost My Body, simply because it's foreign and weird and not one of these typical juggernauts. Toy Story 4 was a fine film, Missing Link surprised all by picking up the Golden Globe, the How to Train Your Dragon franchise just keeps rolling along, (I don't know what Klaus is), any of those could win. I'm going with the critical darling that's already on Netflix, I just feel like more voters had probably had a chance to catch up with it. (Personal fave: Toy Story 4 and I Lost My Body are the only animated films I saw this year, tough to choose) My pick: I Lost My Body

Original Screenplay
This is an interesting category. Everyone's favorite edgy foreign film (Parasite), everyone's favorite (faux) edgy popcorn flick (Knives Out), the technical achievement of the year (1917), everyone's favorite previously decorated screenwriter (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood) and everyone'd favorite previously un-decorated screenwriter (Marriage Story). This would be a great place to throw a chip at Parasite or Tarantino (I think a nomination is all Knives Out will get or that 1917 really deserves), but I think the storyline of husband and wife each taking home Screenplay awards is too delicious to pass up, I got to take Noah Baumbach to win. (Personal fave: Parasite) My pick: Marriage Story

Adapted Screenplay
Wow, these nominees are all over the place! Joker made a bunch of money and had its moment as a cultural thing but personally it did nothing for me and I see no reason why it even got this nomination. The Two Popes is a fine little off-Broadway play (though those Vatican interiors popped much better than anything at your local playhouse), but did anything really happen in their discussions? Was anything illuminated or explained or investigated? No. It was just two old dudes shooting the shit for two hours--again, fine for a play but not the most captivating film of the year. Jojo Rabbit is a tricky piece of work and I think the creators did an excellent job walking all the various tightropes, it is a fine film (just outside of my top ten) and one of the finer adapted screenplays of the year, but just short of a win, I'd say. The Irishman, too, comes with a lot of off-screen baggage about the veracity of any of this story, but I was bowled over by the film itself and a great screenplay really helps out and this would be a worthy winner. But, again, I can't help being sucked in by the husband/wife duo taking home Oscars and they're both totally worthy. What Greta Gerwig does with the original material shows an amazing amount of depth and understanding and it all went into the finished product. (Personal fave: Little Women) My pick: Little Women

Director
This is another one of those categories where the inclusion of Joker is mystifying to me. Yeah, I get it: everyone liked it more than me. But the Academy took Todd Phillips over the Safdie Brothers? Over Great Gerwig and Noah Baumbach? Over James Mangold? I get that it made a bunch of money but its cultural moment has already passed, hasn't it? This nomination just seems like a waste to me. Likewise with the Tarantino nomination: I don't see him having much of a chance of winning, so throwing him in there instead of reaching for a first-timer feels like a missed opportunity (unless...). Bong, Mendes and Scorsese were my top three of the season and I have to assume the Academy agrees with me and since I don't think any of these three win Best Picture, it becomes a choice between 1917's sweep of the tech awards or a chance to fete a long-underappreciated director, Bong Joon-Ho. (Personal fave: Parasite) My pick: I'm going with Parasite

Actor
Jonathon Pryce is clearly just a throw-in (nice to reward actors for making films with zero box office potential) and I think Dicaprio is too (does anyone really think he's gonna win for this?). As is Banderas, who is fine in the film but I didn't think him superlative. Nor did I think that of Joaquin Phoenix, who has been gobbling up all the run-up awards and seems likely win this one. I think Phoenix is fine in Joker but he's not doing anything I haven't seen him do before (the Academy has missed chances in the past to honor him, feels like they're not going to miss the chance this year). My choice would be Adam Driver because he really gets to the heart of something seriously complicated in Marriage Story (and because pound for pound he's arguably the MVP actor of the last decade) but I don't think that happens. (Personal fave: Adam Driver (Marriage Story)) My pick: Joaquin Phoenix (Joker)

Actress
Cynthia Erivo is a fine young talent and I think she'll pick up an Oscar for Best Song, but here she's clearly in 5th place. Saoirse Ronan has become one of the top actresses in the game at the moment and she's really great in this movie. Charlize Theron transforms in Bombshell (though I would've put her in Supporting Actress). Scarlett Johanson is also really good in a way we haven't seen before in Marriage Story. And Rene Zellweger is piling up the run-up awards for her amazing turn in Judy. I liked all of these choices (though I would've squeezed Lupita N'Yongo (Us) in here somewhere), so this category feels as wide open as any because I don't see any impact on Best Picture from this category. (Personal fave: Zellweger (Judy)) My pick: Rene Zellweger (Judy)

Supporting Actor
I don't get this category this year. Of these only Pacino and Pitt were in my top five, so including Tom Hanks for a Mister Rogers movie nobody saw and Anthony Hopkins for a Pope Benedict movie nobody saw makes no sense to me, though I guess I'm more lenient of just wanting to have Joe Pesci in the house again. But, dude, how do you leave out Timothe Chalemet (Little Women) or even John Lithgow (Bombshell)? Tom Hanks...why? What are you doing, Academy? If you really wanna reach for something, then why not nominate Bob Oedenkirk (Long Shot), which is a tougher performance than it looks like? Everyone thinks Pitt is going to win and that's fine, but the Academy really could've made these selections more interesting. (Personal fave: Timothe Chalamet (Little Women)) My pick: Brad Pitt (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)

Supporting Actress
The odds-on favorite seems to be Laura Dern (Marriage Story), but couldn't she have won for Little Women? And I liked Scarlett Johansson in Jojo Rabbit but that doesn't overshadow her performance in Marriage Story. And while I liked Margot Robbie in Bombshell, my favorite supporting actress performance this season was actually Margot Robbie in Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. (I liked Florence Pugh but suddenly I'm bummed I didn't catch Fighting With My Family this year) I didn't see Richard Jewell but Kathy Bates is always reliable and as she's won before, I suspect she's just here to round out the nominees. I gotta go with Dern here because I think Jojo Rabbit was built for nominations, not wins, and because I think Bombshell was actually not a particularly good movie, hard to see Robbie stealing an award for that here. (Personal favorite: Margot Robbie (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood) (part of the original complaint of this movie is that Robbie doesn't do much but I disagree: her job is to be angelic! Not easy to pull off and she pulls it off so well that audiences didn't even seem to notice--that's a great performance!)) My pick: Laura Dern (Marriage Story)

Best Picture
Okay, here we go. The clear favorites all come with strong resumes: Parasite won the Palm D'or at Cannes, Joker won the Golden Lion at Venice, 1917 won the BAFTA, and The Irishman topped the Nat'l Board of Review, NY Film Critics and Hollywood Film Critics. But I don't think any of these titles will win. I think it's a race between Little Women (a really really good women's film that has quietly made a shit ton of money) and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (Tarantino's most innocuous film and one that seemed like an also-ran from the moment it dropped, but one that even the most skeptical secretly loved). Ford v Ferarri is a fine film but a forgotten once, Jojo Rabbit needed nominations to cement its legitimacy but actually winning the big awards doesn't seem likely to me and Marriage Story is a respectable piece of work but not an enjoyable one, not one the Academy will feel the need to hold up to posterity. And back to the frontrunners: 1917 is a fine technical achievement that will win a ton of awards but not the big prize, Parasite is everyone's favorite talking point but the Foreign Language Oscar was invented for this very occurrence, Joker was a big hit but I think it gets completely shut out (with the possible exception of Phoenix) and The Irishman is Netflix's big get and nothing more. When voters are looking over these choices there are too many obvious choices to pick the right one, I think people will go back to the films they really loved this year and I suspect that's a choice between mild mannered Tarantino and up-and-comer Greta Gerwig steadily accruing respect while doing it the right way. Tough to choose, actually, but I'm gonna go with Little Women. (Personal favorite: Apollo 11 was my favorite film of the year--a movie about a time when people used to set out to do things and then they did them! That said, I adored Parasite and thought The Irishman was a fucking masterpiece)) My pick: Little Women

Recap
I think the Academy Awards will look a bit like the recent Super Bowl: the first 3/4 are gonna be all 1917 and in the final quarter will be no 1917. 1917, like The Revenant, is a technical marvel, a compulsively watchable movie simply because of its stunning visual style; but, also like The Revenant, it isn't a groundbreaking story or a Best Picture. I think 1917 will dominate the tech awards and I don't see something like Ad Astra sneaking in and getting wins, 1917 is the dominant tech film of this season. But once we get down to the fun awards, 1917 will disappear and won't reappear as a variety of other titles move in to shine. A coupla locks: Parasite will win Best Foreign and The Irishman will win Best Editing and I really like Harriet's chance of taking Best Song. Otherwise, it'll mostly be 1917 (with an eye on Little Women and/or Once Upon a Time in Hollywood stealing awards along the way), until we get to the acting categories and then the variability of this season will begin to stand out.

Outside of the overwhelming love I don't understand for Joker, I think this awards ceremony is relatively free of obvious snubs outside of missing an Editing nod for 1917 (that was an easy one, guys), acting nods for Lupita N'Yongo (Us) and Timothe Chalamet (Little Women) and, wait--no Costume nomination for Rocketman? I'm a little surprised that were no nods for The Last Black Man in San Francisco though I'm not surprised the Academy is not quite ready to anoint the Uncut Gems or Midsommar crews just yet (they'll be back, those crews are chocked full of badasses) and while Elisabeth Moss (Her Smell) is ready for some love I think she's got many more chances on the way. I liked Ford v Ferarri more than most and I'm a little surprised Ad Astra was such an afterthought but all in all I thought 2019 was a good, not great, year for movies and I think the Oscars are gonna spread the love around--that is, after 1917 grabs itself a handful, I think there will be some surprises later on in the show. All right, let's find out.

2019 Academy Awards

End of the movie season, time to look back in award predictions form. For each category I've added my personal fave (which included more nominated films than I would've thought), as well as who I think will win.

Documentary
The only one of the nominees that I saw was RBG, which is much more about the phenomenon of Ruth Bader Ginsburg as a cultural icon than about the importance of her legal career (IMHO this doc actually diminishes her contributions to our current cultural landscape and does little to truly show what was important about her). So does the Academy reward the feel-good nature of the movie or realize that it's not particularly good? Hard to tell. The other nominees all sound interesting and I'd love to catch up with them and though each has its admirers, none were nearly as high profile as RBG. (My personal fave: Shirkers (I found it utterly fascinating. I'm a sucker for movies about movies because filmmakers have an insight to the making of movies that they don't have in, say, a critical appraisal of a supreme court justice's career; not sure why it didn't get a nomination)) My pick: RBG

Visual Effects
Feels like the big summer action flicks (Avengers: Infinity War, Ready Player One, Solo: A Star Wars Story) will cancel each other out though they each have the selling points: Avengers was the highest grossing/arguably most popular film of the year, RP1 was clever in its use of familiar imagery, Solo was an underappreciated adventure film that already seems due for a reappraisal. I didn't see Christopher Robin, not sure what that's bringing to the table, though the popular and critical buzz would suggest it is 5th out of these nominees. Though much was made of First Man's practical effects (suggesting more Cinematography and Editing), it feels like this is the proper place to reward what turned out to be an underrated movie. (My personal fave: First Man (Say what you will about the family elements of this biopic (which I found half well crafted, half heavy handed), the action scenes were riveting)) My pick: First Man

Sound Editing and Sound Mixing
Personally I think of these two categories as Sound Design, since each film only has one soundtrack. I don't know how to differentiate between these two awards--and since four of the five nominees in both are the same, it doesn't feel like the Academy does either. A Quiet Place had the most unique soundtrack of any film in years and since it is nominated for Editing and not Mixing, I'm guessing it will win the one it's up for. First Man had an amazing soundscape (Chazelle has the music of film well within his grasp, precisely why that dude's gonna be around for a while) and I suspect will win Mixing. Black Panther and Roma were both fine films but I didn't notice anything particularly above-and-beyond about the sound (I think I would've gone for Isle of Dogs and If Beale Street Could Talk here instead). A Star is Born and Bohemian Rhapsody are both music films and have their own unique challenges but seems like they'd cancel each other out. (My personal faves: First Man and A Quiet Place) This could be a telling moment for Roma, if its gonna have a big night it might nab one or both of these (Bohemian Rhapsody, too). My picks: A Quiet Place (for Editing) and First Man (for Mixing).

Original Song
Best Song, it seems to me, has more to do with the marketing of the film or even the credits of the film more than the film itself. Of these nominees only Mary Poppins Returns could rightly be called a Musical, so what does any particular song really have to do with anything? A Star is Born is at least about songwriters, so I guess I'd go with that. If you're looking for a long shot in your Oscar picks, keep an eye on Ballad of Buster Scruggs here. Why? Because Black Panther, RBG and A Star is Born came out early in the season and while Mary Poppins Returns wasn't a failure, it wasn't the mighty blockbuster it might have been; I'd bet that in the last coupla months more Academy voters watched Buster Scruggs than the other nominees. (Personal fave: none; but off the top of my head, Bad Times at the El Royale had a ton of lovely songs that were actually pivotal to the character development, though none were original, which just harkens back to my point that Hollywood doesn't make many musicals any more making this category anachronistic) My pick: A Star is Born

Score
This category is wide open. If Beale Street Could Talk garnered the most early praise for its score, Mary Poppins Returns is a full-on musical featuring some of the biggest musical talents in the biz, Isle of Dogs has a genuinely engaging score (and--there it is again--sound design), while BlackKklansman offers a good opportunity to reward the long, underappreciated film career of Terence Blanchard. I don't really know why Black Panther is here, the score is fine but I didn't find it particularly noteworthy, just a chance to pad the film's resume without giving it any sexier nominations, I suppose. Not sure how this one shakes out, the nominees are very distinct from each other, not merely in terms of the music itself but of the musicianship (hey, personalities matter and I have no idea which of these composers is the most well-liked/well-respected). (My personal fave: If Beale Street Could Talk, though I really admired the kinda-perfect score of the bizarre Estonian film, November) My pick: If Beale Street Could Talk (but I can see BlackKklansman winning if only because this is probably Spike Lee's most watched film by the Academy in many years and Blanchard does have a long glorious history in the film score world).

Makeup/Hair
Hmmm....does the Academy reward the audaciousness of putting disgusting pustules all over the beautiful Margot Robbie's face or Christian Bale for (reportedly) gluing his lips together to give him that perfect Dick Cheney look? I can't see this award going to a foreign film nobody saw no matter how great the makeup was--and supposedly Border is pretty great. Also, I can't help but point out how badly the world--not just me!--must've hated A Wrinkle in Time if it didn't get a nomination here. And I know there are only three nominations in this category but I would've given one to Uncle Drew, some phenomenal work in that movie. (My personal fave: The Favourite) My pick: toss-up....I'll go with Vice

Costumes
Another wide open category. Black Panther, as a super hero movie, seems like an odd choice here but the costumes are quite varied and kinda important to character development (probably not a criterion that goes into most voters' judgment, but always held a soft spot for me). Ballad of Buster Scruggs, too, as an anthology has a variety of different looks and needs from its costumes. Mary Queen of Scots and The Favourite are costume dramas of a similar time period (ehh, not really, but what's a hundred years or so?), and might overlap in the minds of some voters. Mary Poppins Returns, too, might overlap with The Favourite as the designer (Sandy Powell) is the same for both. I'm not sure what will win, but I am surprised there wasn't a nomination for Ocean's 8, where the wild and extravagant costumes are actually significant to the plot. Also, I'm a little tired of costume dramas getting all the love when a film like Mid-90's relied on costuming as much as any other movie I saw this year. (My personal fave: The Favourite--hell, Harley's wigs alone deserve their own award!) My pick: I'll say Black Panther (it will feel like a surprise if it wins but it really does possess a wide variety of interesting looks and when that movie got its pre-Awards second wind, I can see the costumes being much admired)

Production Design
This is one of those categories where I could be wildly misinterpreting what it is trying to represent. But of these nominees none were in my top five of production design (instead I had Isle of Dogs, Hotel Artemis, Zama, At Eternity's Gate, If Beale Street Could Talk) and while the nominees are all visually fine films, I attribute something other than Production Design in each case: Black Panther (special effects), First Man (editing and sound design), Roma (cinematography), The Favourite (costumes, cinematography) (never saw Mary Poppins Returns, though I suspect there I would champion choreography and special effects). Not that production design is absent in any of these films, it just doesn't strike me as the core element of success of any of these films. So what takes the Award? Normally I would say this is a cascade award rather than a stand-alone, so whichever film has the bigger night will win this so if Roma has a big night, it could scoop this one up but I think it'll go to a film that doesn't otherwise win anything. (My personal fave: Isle of Dogs, prompting the question: how do we evaluate the production design on animated films?) My pick: Mary Poppins Returns

Editing
This category is a headscratcher. Not only does it not have any of the films I thought featured praise-worthy editing (such as First Man, Searching, The Other Side of the Wind, Shirkers, The Rider, Black Panther, Isle of Dogs, Sorry to Bother You, At Eternity's Gate, Solo: A Star Wars Story, They Will Never Grow Old, The Front Runner), it actually has two nominees that I thought had some mediocre-at-best editing: BlackKklansman (I thought the KKK/Black Student Union sequence was more troubling than useful, the action scenes at the climax were clumsy and the tacked-on Charlottesville stuff was for political shock value, not for the betterment of the story being told in the film) and Vice (the movie is a collection of random scenes with no real purpose, I don't blame the editing but the editing isn't good enough to make something out of nothing). I liked Green Book but it wasn't because of the editing, which was rather ordinary and the editing in The Favourite is fine but not in my top ten. (I didn't see Bohemian Rhapsody, won't comment). So what is this Academy going for here? I dunno. (My personal fave: First Man) My pick: Vice

Cinematography
Feels like this one belongs to Roma. My controversial hot take of the upcoming Oscars: I think this is the only prize that Roma will win. The cinematography is utterly gorgeous (even though Cuaron was without his usual Hall of Fame camera man, Emmanuel Lubezki) but the film is slow paced, black and white, goes a long time before defining its story and is Netflix's first big score, all of which seem like they could be downers to most voters and though the film is much lauded, I suspect it has a lot more detractors than you realize. Throw in that its also nominated for Best Foreign, which I think splits its Best Picture chances and wins neither award, thus keeping it from having the big night everyone expects. This is the one prize the film absolutely positively clearly deserves, so I think everyone votes for it here, but I think all the other factors work against it in the other categories. We'll see. The other titles are all worthy nominees (I don't know Never Look Away but Caleb Deschanel has been doing good work for eons), but Cuaron by himself made a pretty god damn beautiful movie. (My personal fave: Roma) My pick: Roma

Foreign Film
The only two I saw were Roma (easily in my top ten) and Cold War (liked it, didn't love it), though I am familiar with the directors of the other films. As I just wrote above, I don't think Roma wins this. I can see Cold War winning or possibly Shoplifters, which was the big winner at Cannes this year. I just don't think Capernaum or Never Look Away will have enough support to get there, so do the voters go for the Eastern European torrid love story or the Japanese off-kilter family film? (My personal fave: Zama, a Brazilian film and my favorite film of the year). My pick: Cold War (I think the voters are gonna dig the look and feel of it and Cold War is black and white sexy jazz depressing while Roma is black and white dysfunctional family depressing)

Animated
I should start by saying that The Incredibles and Wreck-It Ralph were two of my favorite animated films of the last 20 years...and that their sequels were both major disappointments for me: uh....shouldn't it have been called Ralph Wrecks the Internet? Seems like some low-hanging fruit there; and honestly I kinda fucking hated Incredibles 2, a lifeless, brainless, soulless piece of crass contractual obligation. Isle of Dogs was a fine film, a brilliant achievement in one sense but kinda run of the mill Wes Anderson in another sense (and its release came with some grumpy politically correct controversy, too, has that already been forgotten?). I didn't see Mirai but I just don't see how it outshines the other nominees. Spider Man: Into the Spider-Verse was much ballyhooed for its unique visual look and though it took me a while to get into it, I understand the praise: it wanted to incorporate a number of different styles with in which required created its in overarching look to accommodate them all, impressive once it really sinks in.  (My personal fave: Spider Man: Into the Spider-Verse) My pick: Spider Man: Into the Spider-Verse (for being innovative rather than being a sequel or simply an addition to an established oeuvre)

Original Screenplay
The critics revived interest in Paul Shrader's film First Reformed (considered "original" even though ten minutes in I was like, 'Oh yeah, this is Winter Light' (*)), though it kinda came and went without fanfare earlier in the year; it was the kind of movie that really divided people--you either loved that ending or you hated it (though somehow I remained rather lukewarm). Roma was a visual feast and while I appreciate the Screenplay nomination, I think this is a strange choice and one that I don't think will win. Green Book was an open-hearted crowd pleaser that even managed to outlast its critics (frankly, I thought the Shirley family's complaints were pretty minimal in the context of the movie itself), and while it could definitely win I can see the Academy thinking it wasn't edgy enough. The screenplay of The Favourite is the perfect vehicle for a trio of outstanding performances more than a stand alone piece of art, I can see the Academy thinking the actresses did all the heavy lifting. I thought Vice was not a very good movie to begin with but the gall of using a dead man to be the voice of conscious is pretty god damn presumptuous on the screenwriter's part and then Dick Cheney's monologue to the camera at the end completely deflated everything the film had been building (I am in the minority of finding the film as a major disappointment); that said I think the Academy finds it clever and 'speaking truth to power'. Gotta complain that Eighth Grade didn't get its obligatory nomination for Best Screenplay, it truly deserved a Best Actress nod, too, but to get shut out completely was the surprising snub of the season to me. (My personal fave: The Favourite) My pick: Vice

Adapted Screenplay
I watched all four versions of A Star is Born last year and I thought the 2018 version to be the 2nd best (the original still rules because all the remakes miss the point (**)). To take on such a venerable property is ballsy to begin with, then to cast a non-actress to star and a non-director to lead while forcing these two to write songs together makes this a much more accomplished picture than the recent buzz would seem to suggest. I liked If Beale Street Could Talk (Barry Jenkins will get more chances, this nomination just cements his status) and The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (since Woody Allen has finally been flushed out of the movie business, guess the Coens will get his annual nomination?) is fine but I don't see either of them as superior pieces of screenwriting. BlackKklansman was a so-so picture (am I the only one that noticed that?) with a third act that drifts all over in a most unsatisfying fashion. I didn't see Can You Ever Forgive Me. (My personal fave: Death of Stalin, one of the films of this season that I look forward to seeing again and again) My pick: Can You Ever Forgive Me (I've long been a Nicole Holofcener fan and this is her best chance to get some love, although Spike Lee could certainly win for the same reason)

Director
Alfonso Cuaron (Roma) is the obvious choice here and if you're seeing a Roma onslaught then he would definitely win; but I don't see the onslaught coming, I feel like Roma will have turned off as many people as it turned on. Pawel Pawlikowski (Cold War) is an interesting choice, he's done good work for a while now, but I don't think enough people saw this to earn him the trophy (the fact he got nominated at all is kinda cool). Spike Lee (BlackKklansman) has been around forever and this is his first nomination, I wouldn't be shocked if he won but I think the nomination is a make-up call not a sign of overwhelming support. Yorgos Lanthimos (The Favourite) is, I think, among the very best directors in the world right now, though his films are sometimes kinda hard to take making this nomination a bit of a shock to me; this year, though, he's put his own stamp on an accessible film and I think he's very deserving, but I'd be surprised if enough people truly appreciate the kind of director he is to give him this award. I personally thought nothing of the film Vice, but I think I'm very much in the minority and since this category is a bit of a clusterfuck (and since Cuaron has already won before), I think the Academy makes a bold move and goes with Adam McKay, a guy that has steadily built admirers in the industry over the years. (My personal fave: Yorgos Lanthimos (The Favourite). My pick: Adam McKay (Vice)

Actor
I was way out of step in this category, only Dafoe appeared in my top five. I admired the hell out of At Eternity's Gate and the way Willem Dafoe keeps finding new roles to give audacious performances is inspiring; too bad nobody saw the movie. Viggo and Ali made a good pair (another example of the need for an Ensemble Award) but the story itself was the star of the show and given the good dialogue, this does not strike me as a film driven by performances (indeed, I can imagine this film being just as beloved with two no-name actors). Cooper deserved to be nominated for Best Director but not for Best Actor; dude, he just mumbles and plays air guitar most of the time, a fine performance but not the centerpiece of the film itself nor one of the more notable performances of the year (I feel like Cooper pissed Hollywood off or something, I don't understand the Academy's reception to the film at all). When I first saw the trailer for Vice, I was blown away by Bale as Dick Cheney; unfortunately, the movie itself was no better than the trailer and I found Bale's performance rather tedious after two hours, watching him pull on the Dick Cheney fat suit didn't get deeper or more interesting over time. I didn't see Bohemian Rhapsody but I can certainly attest to the cult of Freddie Mercury that has arisen in the last decade or so and I'm not surprised the film was a big hit with the fans (and largely panned by the critics). Gotta complain: if you want to see a ballsy, invigorating performance from a guy that's giving you what no one else would give, check out Brady Jandreau in The Rider; which of these five actors could've played that part? None. (My personal fave: John C. Reilly (Stan & Ollie), an underappreciated film and, holy fuck, Reilly is fucking amazing!) My pick: Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody) (are we seriously gonna let Dick Cheney beat out Freddie Mercury? Is that the America you want to live in?)

Actress
My two favorite female performances this season were Lady Gaga (A Star is Born) and Olivia Colman (The Favourite) and Yalitza Aparicio (Roma) was not far out of my top five. The other two films I didn't see. If A Star is Born was lining up as the big winner it feels like it ought to be then I'd say Gaga is a shoo-in to take the prize, but I think she's kinda alienated the Academy and as an outsider (sorta), I feel like the Academy is pulling away from her when they ought to be embracing her. Colman is an excellent choice but I think that film was such an ensemble that unless either Stone or Weisz won, too, I don't see Colman winning. Aparicio is phenomenal but this is one of those occasions where the nomination is the recognition, I'd be pretty shocked if she actually won. I didn't see Can You Ever Forgive Me and while folks love seeing a comic take a dramatic turn, this is another case where I think the nomination itself is the extent of the recognition McCarthy will receive. That leaves Glenn Close; I didn't see the film but she's long been pretty great, feels like this is her year for a lifetime achievement Oscar. Gotta complain that Elsie Fisher (Eighth Grade) was left out, she totally carried an unorthodox movie by a first-time director, she deserves to be here. (My personal fave: Lady Gaga (A Star is Born)  My pick: Glenn Close (The Wife)

Supporting Actor
Okay this category has basically two different groups: high profile, working, in demand guys (Ali, Rockwell, Driver) and old favorites that you don't see much of any more (Grant, Elliott). I did not see Can You Ever Forgive Me but of the other four, none appeared in my top five for Supporting Actor. Isn't the whole point of Vice that George Bush was insignificant and not really in control? So why are you nominating the guy that played him in the movie--especially since he isn't even in it that much? Driver is a fine young actor, he'll definitely have chances to get back in the coming years, but in BlackKlansman he's basically just playing an ordinary cop in an ordinary cop film--Topher Grace is the high risk/low reward performance that has to be perfect in order to hold the film together--why didn't he get this nomination? Ali should've been considered a lead actor--yes, the film is the white guy's memoir and we see a little more of him but what we get from his scenes is merely to set him up in contrast to the black guy, thus both characters are indispensable to each other and they are twin leads, so this nomination isn't really ideal. Sam Elliot is a beloved character actor, been around forever and given many underappreciated performances but this isn't one of them; in A Star is Born his character is one note and repetitive and since he didn't go ten seconds in the movie without multiple F-bombs, the scene they'll have to show at the ceremony is his final scene with Cooper which is actually Cooper's scene. How you gonna give the award for a money shot scene that isn't even his? (My personal fave: Topher Grace (BlackKklansman), playing sublime evil and laughable buffoon simultaneously is virtually impossible and without him this movie doesn't work at all) My pick: Sam Elliott (A Star is Born) (I'm going the old favorite route and since Grant should've won the BAFTA, I figure Elliott wins the Oscar)

Supporting Actress
I was in line with this category as Adams (Vice) and Stone and Weisz from The Favourite were in my top five, too. The other two nominees, Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk) and Marina de Tavira (Roma) were also fine choices. Stone and Weisz, both previous Oscar winners, feel like they'll split votes (this is the perfect argument for an Ensemble Award). The nomination for de Tavira is her recognition, I don't see how she wins. King was the popular choice in the critics' polls (I don't think I saw anyone other than her winning those) but the film had a mild overall reception and personally I don't think she had enough presence in the film outside a sequence late in the 3rd act to really compare with, say, Stone or Weisz. I thought Adams was the best part of Vice (or at least, she's the part that makes the movie make sense) and I think Vice is going to be the surprise winner this evening. (My personal fave: Amy Adams (Vice)) My pick: Amy Adams (Vice)

Best Picture
From the first moment I saw it in October, A Star is Born seemed like the obvious pick for Best Picture; but it went cold in the Golden Globes and doesn't seem to have the necessary buzz about it going into voting. I dunno why, seems like everything the Oscars is looking for: a woman's story, a time-honored remake, a bold musical, loving nods to LGBT and African-American communities, star-making performance in the lead, hugely successful soundtrack, directed by a popular actor, big box office--what more does Oscar want? Throw in that there's no clear usurper and it still seems plainly obvious to me that A Star is Born will win. Black Panther was a hugely popular film very very early in the season but cooled off and this nomination feels liked a tossed bone rather than a groundswell for re-appreciation. BlackKklansman is Spike Lee's first nominee for Best Picture, but that in and of itself doesn't seem like enough to win it a lot of votes (throw in that it's actually a fairly routine cop story, albeit with some twists, and it probably isn't even Spike's 10th best movie). Bohemian Rhapsody has a built in audience due to the staggering emergence of the cult of Freddie Mercury (a Reddit invention, as near as I can tell), and was well-liked by the masses though not by the critics; this doesn't feel like a Best Picture to me (but keep an eye on the Sound categories: if it wins there that could signal a big night). Green Book was a well-crafted crowd pleaser that emerged from Toronto (if you'll recall this won the audience award rather than the bigger-hyped First Man and A Star is Born), then fell upon some criticism; the nominations represent the bounce back from potential controversy but I'm not sure there's enough support going forward to win any awards. Roma is in a tricky place: as Netflix's first big time Oscar-bait title, it has suffered from being much-admired by the handful of people that saw it on the big screen, but a bit of a snooze to those who watched on Netflix; also, being a front runner for Best Picture might undermine it's chance of winning Best Foreign (and vice versa), so outside of Cinematography, I think it gets shut out. The Favourite was my personal favorite of these nominees and while it clearly has its admirers, I don't see it beating out the more high profile films in this category. Vice is an audacious movie, an inventive and ambitious movie but while I think it wins a pile of awards, giving it the top prize might feel like some kind of affirmation of Dick Cheney. My pick: as improbable as it feels, gotta go with A Star is Born (while this may seem out of left field, I think Bohemian Rhapsody is the other one that could win)


Recap
In looking back over this past season for this post, I found myself edging away from the conventional wisdom and seeing a variety of upsets/weird choices, instead. The Critics polls and Guild Awards were all over the place suggesting no single dominant film, so I don't think Roma steamrolls the competition. I think the post-Oscar buzz is going to be about the shock of how little Roma wins but over time people will look back and see the Cinematography prize and the other nominations and think that's about right. I think Vice is the one that people want to vote for but cautiously: I have it winning Editing, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, Director and Makeup but not winning Best Picture or Best Actor--which seems like the obvious choice--because the technical awards suggest a level of mastery of skewering Dick Cheney, while giving it Picture or Actor would feel like an affirmation of Dick Cheney (does that make sense?). I'm using the 1950 Oscars as my model, where All the King's Men won Picture, Actor and Supporting Actress but A Letter to Three Wives won Director and Screenplay: the Academy wanted to highlight an edgy hit movie driven by great performances while acknowledging that the quiet comedy/drama was actually a better movie. Giving Best Picture--and nothing else--to A Star is Born gives the historical impression that this was the dominant film of the season and by not girding it with technical awards, makes it feel like an empty hit movie rather than a superior production. And it keeps the Academy from going too far in a political (Vice) or politically correct (Roma or Green Book) direction.

I think Vice is going to be the surprise star of the night, Roma won't get much love and A Star is Born for Best Picture will be the talk of the town (for a week or so). That said, I'm probably wrong on all this and the oddsmakers that say Roma is a shoo-in to collect all the hardware will probably be proven right. We'll see.


Random open letter to the Academy
The controversy this year (well, the most recent controversy) was about the Awards show producers trying to force a number of the winners into the commercial breaks in a futile bid to shorten the running time of the TV broadcast. Academy members reacted with fury and rightly so: the whole point of the show is to honor people, so why are you dis-honoring them?

Here's a modest solution: divide the Oscars into three shows and own the whole weekend (NFL Draft style). Most of the technical awards are handed out the night before the Oscars, so expand that first night, which is crucial to industry insiders but less attractive for a mass audience. They can go hognutty with intricate distinctions of editing, sound editing, special effects, hair/makeup, musical composition, and other technical achievements on the first night. The second night could be all about genre distinction: foreign, doc, animated, here's where you could add the obligatory highest box office award, short films and even expand out for different types of dramas, comedies, actioners, etc.  Then cut the mass market show down to the bare bones: Picture, Actors, Director, Screenplays, Cinematography, Visual Effects, Costume, Score, Editing, Art Design, Sound Design, (personally I couldn't care less about Best Song, but that's probably one of the more popular awards, so it would probably stay). Then encourage the various Guilds to schedule their awards in the week before the Oscars, so that the whole week is a full-on dedication to the year's films. Let the first two Oscar nights trickle upward to create more interest in the shorter, sweeter big night. And as for host, musical numbers, opening monologue--get rid of all of that crap! The regular people back home want the red carpet pre-game show and they want the big awards--and that's it! They don't care about the difference between sound mixing and sound editing, they don't see the short films so they don't care about them, most of the foreign titles aren't available until after the Oscars and the monologue and musical numbers are more likely to be alienating than memorable. Hollywood people can give themselves a whole raft of extra awards by adding two extra ceremonies, where they'll be free to wallow around in their own self-indulgence--and it can be put on pay-per-view or at least be more impactful on blogs, podcasts and social media.

This is a win-win: the TV audience just gets the meat instead of the fat while the Hollywood crowd gets to have all the fat they want. By spreading it out, the Academy gets to do more, create more buzz, own the whole weekend (or even the whole week), and still put out a shorter more concise ceremony with better ratings, pleasing for the casual fans and the hardcore insiders at the same time. Just a thought.


(*) Fwiw, I read the description of his next film, it's 7 Men from Now, an old Bud Boetticher film. Hey, if you're gonna rip off old movies, Bergman and Boetticher are good places to start.

(**) The original A Star is Born (1937) is about a girl that wants to be a star and a guy that desperately wants to maintain the stardom he used to have before he met this girl. But in the remakes the woman has to be dragged into the spotlight while the man is rather indifferent to the stardom he has or used to have (especially the Kris Kristofferson version--I never understood anything about what that character wanted). The original is a gritty cynical movie about the fake magic of Hollywood--amazing considering how early it was in the history of Hollywood! The remakes ignore how grubby the woman's desire for stardom is and downplay the man's devastating craving to retain relevance, tending to paint the woman as lucky (instead of ambitious) and the man as merely alcoholic (instead of heartbroken). The 2018 version is awkward in that it isn't portraying the dominant cultural expression of the time--dude, if the world's greatest Southern rock guitar player walked into a Brooklyn drag bar at 2am, are we really sure that anyone would know who he was? Really? I'll buy it for the sake of the movie but I'm not sure that's true at all. To me the one really stinging criticism of A Star is Born (2018) is that stardom is a different thing in the social media world than it was in Depression-era Hollywood (1937), the early days of television (1954) or the heyday of arena rock and FM radio (1976) and this film chooses to harken back rather than portray the world as it is now. Those versions all owned the world they lived in, this one merely suggests that it is possible that these people still exist.

Academy Awards

Might as well make my Oscar predictions. The Oscars to me are a like a Jets-Browns game in mid-October: I don't wanna watch it but I do wanna know the outcome. And I still wanna see if I can see if I can guess the winner (though I skip the shorts because...well, I usually don't get to see them and they ought to be in a separate ceremony anyway). This year will be kinda tough because frankly I thought it was a pretty crappy year. The Oscar bait movies generally left me cold, none of the big summer titles impressed me and I thought it was a pretty sorry year for kids' movies. I struggled to make a top ten this year, which makes me excited for next year.

Best Doc -- Normally this is a quiet category but OJ: Made in America was easily my favorite film of the year (and the title most likely to endure as a watchable classic film on into the future). What a staggering fucking achievement in editing and story telling and who knew that OJ Simpson led the quintessential American life (poverty, fame, murder, redemption, revenge)? The fact that its a TV movie will earn scorn from some but I think the sheer awesomeness of the film itself will win over enough to earn the award it deserves.

Best Visual Effects -- Last year I thought the Star Wars re-boot would take home a pile of technical awards but mostly they went to the Mad Max re-boot instead. My rationale last year going in was that the Academy would reward boffo box office and my rationale afterwards was that there's plenty of time to give Star Wars movies awards. I think this is one of those opportunities. I liked Rogue One made a huge pile of money without being an irritating force. The only other one I saw was The Jungle Book, which is a hell of a good flick but is really an animated film with a little kid in it. Doctor Strange looked interesting, Deepwater Horizon had some cool looking explosions, Kubo is in fact an animated movie, but I'm betting Rogue One is the title that everyone actually watched and liked.

Best Sound Editing -- And here's where the La La Land onslaught begins. Like it or not, La La Land is a masterful piece of sound editing and thoroughly deserves this award. Also all the other films are basically action movies, I think the musical stands out and wins easily.

Best Sound Mixing -- (Ditto) La La Land (win #2).

Best Original Song -- (*screech*) La La Land seems like the obvious choice here with two nominations to choose from, but I thought those were not the best songs in the movie anyway. I'll go with Moana--can't pass up a chance to get Lin-Manuel on stage.

Best Original Score -- Aaaaaaand we're back. La La Land (win #3) is a pretty easy call on this one. Although personally I thought Moonlight had a killer score, La La Land is a total immersion in the musical form that we haven't seen in an Oscar bait movie since...Chicago (?).

Best Makeup & Hair -- I dunno, I'll say Suicide Squad? There certainly is a lot of hair and makeup in the movie and it seems a clearer choice than the other nominees. (And "Oscar-winning Suicide Squad" just has a such a lovely ring to it)

Best Costumes -- I personally would've gone with Everybody Wants Some!! for best costumes but its not even nominated (why not? It's a period piece like the others). We could throw another one on the pile for La La Land but for this one I'll take Jackie instead (the costumes were the most notable part of the film anyway).

Best Production Design -- Though I thought Hail Caesar was the better film (and more interesting take on Hollywood), I think La La Land takes this one (win #4).

Best Editing -- This one is wide open. They may go with La La Land in the onslaught or this could be the place where they throw a bone to another picture. Though I admired Hell or High Water a great deal, I didn't find the editing to be particularly noteworthy but if you're looking for an underdog, this could be a good chance to reward a movie that deserved more love than in got. I'll go with Moonlight, the film had a startlingly original visual look and this is a good and well-earned place to give it some kudos.

Best Cinematography -- Moonlight could sneak an upset here but I'll go with La La Land (win #5) simply because that opening sequence is pretty amazing.

Best Foreign Film -- The critics having been talking up Toni Erdman all year long but the American public still hasn't gotten much of a look at it and while A Man Called Ove was a likable crowd pleaser, I didn't think it was an award-worthy picture. I'll go with The Salesman because its an easy thumb in the eye of our new President's foreign policy without being terribly controversial. I don't know if anyone saw the film (though I am an admirer of Asghar Farhadi) but seeing the winners accept their award by satellite will speak volumes free of Michael Moore or Molotov cocktail.

Best Animated Feature -- Three foreign nominees and no Finding Dory (the 2nd highest grossing film of the year)? Interesting. Another chance to bring Lin-Manual to the stage or throw a bone to Zootopia, a huge springtime hit (though I found it to be a twisted paranoid thriller of a kids' movie). I'll take Moana, it was lovable and had a lot of Oscar-friendly elements.

Best Adapted Screenplay -- Everyone's gonna wanna vote for Moonlight but then they're gonna see Fences and want that one, too.  Tough call but I'll take the Moonlight crowd over the Fences crowd.

Best Original Screenplay -- Personally I thought Hell or High Water was the best of these five films (and the best original screenplay to boot) but this is the chance to choose Manchester By the Sea over La La Land. I think Lonergan gets the trophy.

Best Director -- La La Land is a very easy choice (win #6). If Manchester By the Sea has any momentum here's where it comes into effect but I think the big mo stays with la la.

Best Supporting Actress -- This is a two horse race: Michelle Williams and Viola Davis. Could go either way, they're both well respected and long overdue, I'll take Viola Davis.

Best Supporting Actor -- This category is wide open. Folks like Mike Shannon and this could be a good time to anoint him but honestly that movie is terrible (and he's not particularly noteworthy in it). Jeff Bridges already won his Oscar (and Ben Foster should've been the nominee from that movie anyway). Hedges is the representative from a popular (but horribly muted) film but no one knows who he is and he is strangely minimal to the action of the film. Did anyone see Lion? I think I'll go with Mahershala Ali because people loved Moonlight and this is a chance to give it a prize.

Best Actress -- The money is on Isabelle Huppert but I thought that movie was...just weird and I didn't really understand her performance. I love Huppert as much as the next guy but Meryl Streep's 14th best performance (that seems about right for Florence Foster Jenkins, a film I really liked btw) is still way more eye opening and invigorating. I think folks admired Natalie Portman in Jackie but, man, that movie....that movie is dumb...just dumb. Did anyone see Loving? I'll go with Emma Stone (win #7 for La La Land).

Best Actor -- Casey Affleck got the early buzz but Manchester is the kind of film that does not live up to the overwhelming hype and neither does its lead performance; Denzel is the crowd's best buddy but he's already won and Fences wasn't much a hit; Viggo is really great but did anyone see Captain Fantastic?; I first noticed Andrew Garfield in 99 Homes last year (he and Mike Shannon were both more award-worthy last year than this year....that no one saw), but this is just a pat on the head nomination. I'll take Ryan Gosling to finally win one and to keep the La La Land avalanche coming (win #8).

Best Picture -- La La Land (win #9). Along with Best Director, this is is the easiest pick of the night. The film was...not bad...and for what it was trying to do, that is plenty enough successful to earn a big pay day on Oscar night (especially in such a weak season).

The rundown: La La Land (9), Moonlight (3), Moana (2), (1) each for Manchester By the Sea, Fences, OJ: Made in America, Rogue One, Jackie, Suicide Squad, The Salesman.

Academy Awards Recap

So how did I do with the predictions? I got Documentary (Amy), Original Song (Spectre), Cinematography (The Revenant), Foreign Film (Son of Saul), Animated Feature (Inside Out), Original Screenplay (Spotlight), Director (Innaritu), and 3 of the 4 actors (Dicaprio, Larson, Rylance). 10 out of the 20 that I tried.

I missed Visual Effects (Ex Machina), Score (The Hateful 8), Adapted Screenplay (The Big Short), Picture (Spotlight) and then all the Mad Max juggernaut categories (Costume, Makeup, Production Design, Editing, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing). 10 out of the 20 that I tried.

Obviously the ones I called correctly are because I'm brilliant, but what about the ones I missed? I almost got Score, suggesting that while the Academy would love to reward Morricone, they're getting tired of rewarding Tarantino; the Academy did the right thing. I missed Adapted Screenplay because I thought Big Short would take the top prize, thus leaving Room to get a bonus prize; no dice, in fact, when Big Short won that was probably an indication that it wouldn't win anything else. Visual Effects was a surprise to me, I just assumed Star Wars (or possibly Mad Max) would win that; though I really liked Ex Machina, its effects were minimal and subtle, not sure it actually deserved this award but, oh well. Best Supporting Actress was also a surprise to me though Vikander was the easy pick; to reward her so quickly, so young, might end up cursing her, I hope that doesn't come to pass. Mad Max taking Costume and Makeup is actually pretty impressive, I was surprised at the nominations much less the wins, but Mad Max was a unique visual experience and the Academy was right to reward it. As for the other Mad Max wins, I just assumed the Academy would choose Star Wars but I guess they figure there'll be plenty more Star Wars flicks coming to reward (or snub all over again).

As for Best Picture, I knew The Revenant would not win. Prizes for Dicaprio, Innaritu and Lubezki were predictable and well deserved, but the film itself was not necessarily one for the ages. I cynically thought the Academy would choose the smug, overrated (downright delusional) Big Short. But I'm really quite pleased they went with Spotlight, though as a film it has its problems because while the screenplay was magnificent, the direction was lackluster to say the least. I wondered if the movie understood itself. For example, the crusading reporters are defending the little guy from the big bad church but over and over again they bully potential interviewees by suggesting they need to talk to the Globe and forgot those insignificant little papers chasing the same story. Does the movie get the irony? I'm not sure. I know the screenwriter put it in there but the director (same guy, incidentally) doesn't bring it out well enough. Another example (MAJOR SPOILER): part of the plot revolves around the church suppressing court documents, but when the Globe is able to bring them to the public, they're not yet ready to write their big expose....so the Globe suppresses the court documents! Again, this is a subtlety in the overall story but it doesn't really play that way in the movie. The screenwriter did brilliant work (McCarthy earned his Oscar), but the direction is pretty soft (McCarthy will earn more Oscars if he finds someone else to direct his scripts). Spotlight is a compelling, engaging, intelligent piece of work that tells a complex story in a way that is easy to follow. Good for the Academy for picking the best choice for Best Picture. (That said, I thought The Revenant was a better film but that's not what the Oscars are all about. Did that sound weird? Maybe I'll write that out one o' these days)

Academy Awards

Oscars are here and its time to predict the winners. (Yeah, I'm writing this very late but I'm not paying any attention to the ceremony itself, so the predictions will be pure) For me the Oscars represent the end of the film season and like any event, they're fun to predict. Otherwise I don't really care who wins and like a regular season NFL between two uninteresting teams, I only care about the outcome, not the game itself. And though I'm picking the winners, I will be hedging my bets with some upset possibilities. (I'm skipping the shorts because I haven't seen them and even when I do see them, the ones I think ought to win never do (same reason I don't watch figure skating))

Best Doc -- Amy. I only saw two of the nominees and Amy seems to be the one with the most buzz.

Best Visual Effects -- Star Wars: The Force Awakens. I saw all five nominees and in terms of special effects, I think they are five fine choices for the award. Since Star Wars was shut out of the other sexy categories and since the original Lucas films set the standard in FX for the last 3 decades or so, I suspect Star Wars will win here.

Best Sound Editing -- Star Wars: The Force Awakens. (see above)

Best Sound Mixing -- Star Wars: The Force Awakens. I understand (I think) the difference between the two sound categories but I'd be willing to bet most Academy voters don't really care. And since the two sets of nominees are pretty similar, I suspect Star Wars takes them both. (Wouldn't be surprised to see Bridge of Spies win this)

Best Original Song -- Spectre. This is my least favorite category in the whole show. I'm not up on what the Academy thinks are good songs, nor do I care. The only film I saw in this category was Youth (my favorite film of the year, btw) and while I admired that song's complexity, it ain't exactly the most hummable thing I've heard in a while. I just chose the James Bond movie because...well, I don't know why.

Best Score -- Sicario. I don't tend to care about film scores: occasionally they're great, occasionally they're annoying but mostly, like a great bass player, I never notice them. My gut tells me that the Academy would love to give Ennio Morricone (The Hateful 8) the award but I have heard that on the ballots only the film itself is mentioned and I feel like there's an Academy backlash to Quentin Taratino (and I doubt too many voters actually sat through the film itself). I could see Star Wars or Bridge of Spies winning but I went with Sicario because it was one of my favorite scores of the year and I'm a little surprised to see it nominated. This category is strangely wide open this year. I could see any of the five winning.

Best Makeup/Hairstyling -- The Revenant. If anyone actually saw The 100 Year Old Man, I think they would quickly see that was one of the finest makeup jobs of the lest several years, but I'm suspecting the voters didn't see it. And Mad Max, great as it was, is a strange candidate for this one, so I think everyone goes for the movie they actually watched.

Best Costume Design -- The Danish Girl. I did not see The Danish Girl (Eddie Redmayne already creeps me out, watching him in a dress for two hours does not sound appealing at all), but since the plot revolves around clothing itself (specifically designed for the actor, no less), I'm guessing the voters will gravitate toward that title. Again, Mad Max: Fury Road and The Revenant are strange choices here--who the hell is watching Mad Max and thinking, 'Oooh, I'd look good in that!'?

Best Production Design -- Bridge of Spies. I think this was a film that everyone watched and kinda liked (but didn't love). This is the sort of award that voters will give to reward a film that will otherwise not get much love.

Best Editing -- Star Wars: The Force Awakens. Big action movies that everyone liked is always the front runner for editing, so Mad Max: Fury Road could win, as well. (Also, a story that revolves around crazy juxtapositions could win, a film like The Big Short could sneak this one)

Best Cinematography -- The Revenant. This one's a lock. Carol and Sicario both featured some very subtle and lovely camerawork but their reward is just get nominated. Mad Max: Fury Road was well done but some will think of that as an effects-driven picture and downgrade it. The Hateful 8 was mostly indoors and lovely as it was to look at, don't think I'd put in my top five this year and I suspect the voters won't either. Emmanuel Lubezki is the best in the business right now, I'd be kinda shocked if he doesn't win (again).

Best Foreign Film -- Son of Saul. This one feels close to a lock, too. This category usually has one film that has already come out (or is just about to) and four other movies no one's ever heard of. Theeb has some buzz and Son of Saul has its critics, but I suspect it'll win just in time for its nationwide roll out.

Best Animated Feature -- Inside Out. This was one of my favorite films this year and I'd be surprised if it didn't win. Its another crowd pleasing Pixar masterpiece, hard to imagine it not winning.

Best Adapted Screenplay -- Room. I don't think Room has a shot at Picture or Director but I think this is a movie everyone really respected: its a tough piece of work that pulls off some heavy, heavy (m'fuckin' heavy) stuff with ease. The Big Short or The Martian could win but I think they've got a better shot at stealing Best Picture, Brooklyn and Carol were lovely films that are getting rewarded with a nomination only.

Best Original Screenplay -- Spotlight. Tom McCarthy is one of the best screenwriters around today and this is a model of how you write a screenplay, kids: a ton of characters, a million little plot threads, a whodunnit-like collection of subplots and yet its all laid out before the viewer in an easily digestible manner. I think McCarthy would be better served if his scripts were directed by someone else. This is (IMHO) the best screenplay this year and I think the Academy will agree with me.

Best Director -- Innaritu (The Revenant). Yeah, he just won last year but he's really good at his job, he's snagged himself the best cinematographer in the business and this is a category where the Academy really wants to get it right. McCarthy is actually a pretty terrible director (this was the head scratching-est of all the nominations), indeed he keeps Spotlight from being a much better film. Abrahamson pulled off a real feat in Room but nobody knows who he is, so the nomination is his reward. While I think The Big Short could sneak up and grab Best Picture, I don't think McKay outmuscles Innaritu to get this award, so for McKay the nomination is a way of letting him know he can get A-Listers to be in his movies but I don't think he wins this year. Miller is a weird guy that makes weird movies but I could see him sneaking in and grabbing Best Director if the Academy is squeamish about going back-to-back with Innaritu. I'm not gonna call Innaritu a lock because I think Miller has a decent shot at winning but I don't think the other nominees do.

Okay, the acting categories. These are tough because you never know when the voters will choose their old friends or reach out to the newbies or actually reward the best (sometimes happens). I'll see if I can weave my way through.

Best Supporting Actress -- Kate Winslet (Steve Jobs). I know Alicia Vikander is the popular choice but she's too new, I feel like if the voters want an up-and-comer they would choose Rooney Mara instead because they already know her. If they want a glorious veteran whose never gotten her due, they'd reach for Leigh, but again I bet none of the voters watched that movie. McAdams is fine but nothing superlative in Spotlight, so I'm guessing she comes in a distant 5th in this category. Thus, the safe pick is Winslet: she's already won an Oscar before but no one hates her and she is really, really good in this performance. I can see Mara winning, but I just don't see Vikander taking this home even though she had a really good year.

Best Supporting Actor -- Mark Rylance (Bridge of Spies). Stallone is the popular choice and he's good in Creed (really good, dude) but Sly's career is entirely based on popularity overseas, not in USA. (Before The Expendables, what was his last hit in America? Think about that for a minute....he's big in Indonesia, he's big in Turkey, he's big in Egypt, he ain't big in America, dude, and he never was. Winning the Golden Globe is no indication that he'll win the Oscar) Creed is a touching and solid reboot of the Rocky franchise but giving Sly the award after not nominating anyone else would be awkward and weird. Like McAdams, Ruffalo is fine in Spotlight but it is the crisp clear screenplay that drives that movie, not any single performance. Bale is fine in The Big Short but I think that has a better chance of stealing Best Picture, so the smaller awards go elsewhere, I think. Hardy should win this award--I thought that was one of the single finest performances of the entire year--but I doubt it. Rylance is one of those unsung British badasses that has been around forever and never gotten his due and Bridge of Spies is a film everyone liked, I think Rylance takes it.

Best Actress -- Brie Larson (Room). She's been around longer than you probably realize, she's steadily working for the last few years, she's been rolling through the awards season and she's really good in an unlikely likable movie. This one seems close to a lock, too. Blanchett is fine but I think Carol gets shut out. Rampling is very good in 45 Years but, man, that film's a bummer and she's not great enough to overcome that. Lawrence is wildly popular in the Academy thus she's invited to the party even though her movie sucked. Ronan is a lovely young actress in a lovely little movie, she'll be back in the future but she won't win this year. Larson is the perfect mix of up and comer and veteran, she's been working steady and everyone respects her. And she's really good.

Best Actor -- Leonardo Dicaprio (The Revenant). Cranston is lovable and popular, that's why he got nominated but that's as far as that goes. Redmayne just won last year, two in a row is a bit too rarefied for him right now. Fassbender is (IMHO) the best actor in the world right now (not named Day-Lewis) and he'll have many more shots at winning a statue. I really wanted to go with Damon stealing this one but I don't see it; The Martian was a likable piece of entertainment but not much more than that and, like Fassbender, Damon will have more shots to win. Dicaprio has been set up as the winner for months now and while I'd like to go with an upset, I don't see it coming. But, personally, this performance is not in my top five (or ten for that matter) this year. He crawls around and slobbers a lot, Tom Hardy was waaaay more interesting in this film. But everyone's been waiting for him to win, so I guess its his year.

Best Picture -- The Big Short. I think people really liked Brooklyn, The Martian and Bridge of Spies and really admired Room and Spotlight but I don't think there's enough support for any of those films to win the big prize. I think people dug Mad Max: Fury Road but who's gonna vote for that to win Best Picture? Lord of the Rings won but that was the end of a trilogy that was well respected and made a gajillion dollars, Mad Max: Fury Road is that rare silly popcorn movie that was just so goddamn good at what it set out to do that even the critics dug it, but its not a prize-winner, know what I mean? I think The Revenant was set up early in the season as Dicaprio's big moment, as another work of genius from Innaritu & Lubezki, maybe even as Tom Hardy's coming out and while the box office was surprisingly boffo and the critical response was grand, I just don't see The Revenant as a Best Picture winner. Yes, it is a technical marvel but does anyone really like the movie? A guy gets left for dead, turns out he's not dead, tracks down other dude for revenge...that's it? I think people respect it and I think Lubezki, Innaritu and Dicaprio get their statues, but I don't think anyone really loves the movie and I don't think its gonna win. Personally I thought The Big Short kinda sucked, its not terribly effective at telling a story or explaining how things work but its exactly the kind of populist crowd pleasing pseudo-serious junk that the Academy loves: it thinks its telling a grand story (but it isn't), it thinks its thumbing its nose at the moneyed classes (the one that are cashing the checks from the success of this movie) and it thinks its really clever at explaining to the masses what's wrong with Donald Trump's America (utterly tone deaf on that level). But I think it wins the big prize.

Rundown of the winners: 4 each for The Revenant and Star Wars: The Force Awakens; 2 for Room and Bridge of Spies; 1 each for Amy, The Big Short, The Danish Girl, Inside Out, Sicario, Son of Saul, Spectre, Spotlight, Steve Jobs. I think this is one of those years where nothing really dominates and the love gets spread all over the place. We'll see.