Hack-a-Shaq

The term is 'Hack-a-Shaq' regardless of who is getting hacked.  The term was invented to denote the strategy of purposely fouling a notoriously bad free throw shooter.  While this strategy was not invented for Shaq, Shaq was the guy that was there when we invented the term.  Before we invented the term, we had the strategy but no fundamental linguistic denotation to refer to the strategy.  Before Shaq we didn't have the term, after Shaq we did.  Reinventing the term (Hack-a-Howard or Hack-a-Deandre) is not necessary because we already have a term for that....and that term is 'Hack-a-Shaq'. The strategy can be re-appropriated to another player, but there is no need to re-appropriate the term to describe the strategy as there was when Shaq was the one getting hacked.

Look What I Wrote

...just one week ago:

I like the Rockets to win game 5 tonight at home, but the Clippers will take game 6 back in LA.  Do the Rockets have a miracle comeback in them?  I doubt it and the chances that the Clippers have a catastrophic collapse in them seems to be dwindling.  (Dude, Chris Paul hasn't even broke a sweat yet...they don't need him)

Ha!  Man, I loves me some reality.  The miracle comeback, the catastrophic collapse...I was so close. Yes, the prediction was 100% wrong but...not really.  I had the right picture, I just caught it from the wrong side of the mirror.  Clippers done clipped when I felt like Blake in particular was ready to be the mega-star he's been preparing to be for so long now.  (Hate to even entertain the thought but Blake is developing a Eric Lindros-nish about him?  Nah, come on.  He just balled out against the Spurs, that dude can play)  I'm (still) in the camp that says Chris Paul can't win a championship: that guy just puts too much sweat into every moment of every game and the upward spiral of competition night after night is too much for him.  I love his game and I'd love to see him go deeper in the playoffs but I just don't think his style can overcome the rigors of a championship run (when he morphs into the Jamal Crawford role, he'll still have some great years, the hired gun thing might be his best chance to net a ring).

Do the Clippers blow it up?  Hell no.  First off they can't (that is blowing it up isn't really even possible much less likely); secondly, they've still got a great core.  They just need to coach up whoever they can get to play around them.  We complain about Doc the GM but frankly Doc the Coach has not blown me away in his Clipper tenure.  Making the most of the supporting cast has got to be the coach's job.  Doc the GM has made some bonehead plays so far but Doc the Coach was supposed to bail him out.  Big Baby Davis and Austin (Little Baby) Rivers had good moments in the playoffs but not that good, further down the bench brought nothing at all; Crawford is a big-game-every-4th-night-out kinda guy; Reddick sometimes falls into struggle mode where he just gets nothing done; Deandre does the things you need him to do but none of the things you want him to do; Barnes is most effective (I think) when the Clippers have a lead but generally not much help coming from behind.  Where's CJ Wilcox?  Couldn't make it work with Farmar or Raduljica?  Or Nate Robinson?  (Hey man, Nate is a crazy spinning top that makes weird things happen for 2-3 minute stretches, they mighta coulda used him in game 6)  The coach has to make the most of these ingredients and Doc doesn't seem so impressive to me.  Doc the GM is a bonehead, Doc the Coach is unimpressive, neither strikes me as a great argument for making drastic moves in the off-season.

If I'm not mistaken they do NOT have an MLE available to them this year (because they signed Hawes last year, that means they don't the MLE again until next year, right?).  They posses NO draft picks this year.  They've got a team option on Austin (Little Baby) Rivers but Doc the Dad emerges at this point and I just can't see them letting him go.  Hawes could be trade bait considering Doc clearly doesn't like him and while I think that's a movable deal, I don't see it netting the Clippers a savior off the bench.  So after they max Deandre (to my mind the right move in every way), they'll already be over the cap before they fill out their roster.  Pretty well seems like the Clippers will look pretty much the same next year.

Conference Finals Predictions

East
Cavs-Hawks
It seems like the general consensus is that the Cavs are going to steamroll the Hawks and that'll be that.  Don't think I'm buying that.  The Cavs just bested the Bulls by outlasting their sludgy, inside-banging Thibs-style game; the Hawks out-dueled the Wizards, a similar team that just didn't have the depth of scoring the Hawks possess.  The Cavs look banged up but they're still scoring; the Hawks are rounding into shape, getting back to the team that dominated the East.  So why is everyone taking the Cavs?  Well, they got Lebron.  Yeah, but even with Lebron I don't think this is a great match up for the Cavs.  I was impressed with the Mozgov-Thompson tandem against the Bulls but Horford and Millsap will stretch them away from the basket, minimizing their impacts.  JR Smith too played well against the Bulls but hard to imagine he could do more damage than Korver (who barely got going against the Wizards).  Shumpert's defense will be neutralized against a Hawks team where everyone is looking to score.  Kyrie being hurt was minimized against the slower inside-ier Bulls but against the Hawks he'll have to run and cut like his younger days and he doesn't look up to that at the moment.  Lebron is obviously the X factor: if its classic Lebron, the Cavs can beat anybody; but anything short of that and I think the Hawks can outpace 'em.  Korver isn't clicking and they're without Sefelosha but all in all the Hawks look as good as any Hawks team I ever saw.  I'll take Hawks in 7.

West
Rockets-Warriors
The Rockets should not have made this far.  I'm sorry but they just shouldn't have.  Harden is a great scorer, Howard is balling right now, Brewer is bringing the hustle, I like Jones and Terry and Prigioni is playing out of his mind.  But the Warriors on a bad day should still beat them by double digits on the road.  Maybe not: the Grizzlies just proved that on a bad day the Warriors can be beaten.  But I think the Warriors slagged their way right into that Grizzlie-style ball and that Rocket-style isn't as aggressive, intimidating or talented.  The Warriors are the better team, they're playing well enough right now, Curry especially is really felling it.  They can't be beat right now.  I'll give the Rockets game 4 at home, but I'm expecting the Warriors in 5.

Attention Kentucky Fans

It was just reported that Calipari is interested in the Pelicans job.  Does he want the Pelicans job?  No.  He's laying down the path to his exit.  To another college?  Nah, UCLA and Duke and anywhere else doesn't really have anything that he doesn't already have at UK, making any move like that would be more of a hassle than a step up.  To the Pelicans?  No, finished 8th in the West with a hamstrung roster, we all love Anthony Davis but so far his only championship was at Kentucky.  To some other NBA job?  'Some other', no.  Lakers (not this year), Nuggets (hell no), Raptors (no thanks), Magic (too much youth, no), Thunder (didn't lobby for that gig, did he?), Nets (heh-heh, I can't believe I actually typed that).  No, not any NBA job but there is one.  And he's using today's New Orleans tweet to make his case for Cleveland.

He would take the Cavs job (assuming Blatt is run out of town) if it was offered.  Lebron has made the Eastern Conference Finals 8 of the last 10 years (5-2 so far in those games).  With Kyrie (and Love or someone else) by his side, I expect Lebron to make 6 of the next 8 Eastern Conference Finals.  That doesn't equal championships, mind you.  But its pretty good: a lot of wins, a lot of post-season attention, a lot of money, a lot of glamor when you're winning in the pros.  In pro basketball there are very few opportunities better than that Cavs gig.  And David Blatt clearly doesn't have the juice to hang on there for long.

Is Calipari the best choice for that job?  Not necessarily.  I think Alvin Gentry gives Lebron and Kyrie all the love/respect they need and strategizes to maximize the supporting cast as well as anyone around these days.  If Gentry could Warrior-ize the bottom of that roster, that could be the difference between a ring and no ring (or many rings and no ring).  Personally, I don't think Calipari possesses that particular skill the way Gentry does.  Lebron knows what the next few years hold and I'm sure it doesn't much matter who the coach is.  If he wants a free and easy coach who's not gonna get in the way, he'll campaign for Calipari; but if he really wants to win those 2-3 games at the end of the year that have mostly eluded him over the years, Lebron will hold out for Gentry.

Would Calipari take that job?  Yes.  Yes, he would.  I kinda thought Calipari would want Love on board (and that may be happening), but increasingly I think he'd take the job even without Love.  It could be that this is all part of the dance to be the Team USA coach when Coach K finally moves on (a plum gig that would NOT interfere with his Wildcatly duties).  Or maybe this is just his annual method of getting a raise from the taxpayers of Kentucky (money well spent IMHO).  But I bet you he's on the short list to coach the Cavs next year (and I'll be his name is higher on the list than David Blatt).

Wildcat fans, prepare yourself now to join the Brad Stevens welcoming committee.

Clippers-Rockets Game 7

My prediction was Clippers in 7.  Here we are.  Didn't think the series would look like it has so far but they're each 3-3 after 6 games and that's not a shock.  The Rockets have the 2-game winning streak going, embarrassing the Clippers badly in game 6 and they're undoubtedly going to be the punters' fave pick this afternoon.  But I'll stick with the Clippers (-2.5).

I think of it this way: the Clippers basically no-showed in games 2 and 5 and the 4th quarter of game 6.  The rest of the time they were the superior team, with or without Chris Paul.  When the Clippers show up and do their thing, I think they're the better team and squandering game 6 should be the wakeup call they need.  (As for game 6: hey, man, they've prepared everything for stopping James Harden and when Harden never got up off the bench during the rally, the Clippers blinked and forgot there were other guys on the team.  Classic frog-in-boiling water effect: they never developed the urgency because a Harden-less Rockets team seems like nothing to fear)  Today, I expect Paul to handle his business down the stretch, Deandre to go toe to toe with Dwight and Griffin to be the monster he's grown into.  I also expect Harden to do too much.

The Clippers have let the Rockets get further than they should have, wouldn't be a shock at all if the Rockets finished off the rally.  But I believe (for whatever reason) that the Clippers ain't gonna clip today.  Man, I'm looking forward to it.

Pointless Trade Idea

Celtics get PF Faried (4 yrs $50m/$11.2 next year); Nuggets get PF Wallace (1 yr/$10.1m), SG Young ($1.7m next year) and the 16th pick in the upcoming draft.

Would the Nuggets dump Faried for an expiring contract and a coupla prospects?  I wouldn't but the Nuggets seem eager to separate themselves from Faried, so all in all not a bad package.  Not sure if Wallace can be bought out but if so I guess they would; that would turn the $50m they owe Faried into two decent prospects (Young could still be a nice SG, maybe at 16 they can get PF Harrell to replace Faried).  Also, it would save them a coupla bucks to chase after one of the centers that will/may be available this summer (Stoudamire, Al Jefferson, pick-a-Lopez, Asik).

Would the Celtics flip Wallace, Young and a #16 pick for 4 years of Faried?  I would.  Wouldn't think twice about it.  Putting Faried with Smart and Bradley would give the Celtics a wickedly opportunistic defense (though points might be hard to come by) for the next 3-4 years.  And it would reconfigure their free agent needs: Kevin Love would be out, all eggs go in the Lamarcus Aldridge basket or perhaps a solid scoring SG or SF.

Great deal for the Celtics, so-so deal for the Nuggets.  Not sure why the Nuggets are eager to get rid of Faried but if they're serious about moving him, an expiring contract and a draft pick is probably the best they can hope for.

A thought about the upcoming lottery selection day

Philly possesses the 1st round picks of the Lakers (top 5 protected) and the Heat (top 10 protected). Currently the Lakers sit at #4, the Heat at #10 and the Sixers would be left waiting til next year. But if the balls ping pong just right, the Sixers could end up with 3 of the top 11 picks.

I'd like to say its a game changer, that the Sixers could trade 2 of those picks and bring in a badass player (say, Al Horford) to go with Nerlens, Embiid, (presumably) D'Angelo Russell, and still have plenty of room to go grab another nice free agent (how would Monta Ellis look in a Sixer uni?).  They'd still be a raggedy crew but they'd have a real scoring punch to go with their solid young D and, man, they might be looking good in the East next year.  And next summer as the salary cap rises, they can bring over Dario Saric and pitch Kevin Durant a white picket fence dream home.  Sounds good, don't it?

They won't do that though.  They'll draft two European guys and tank next year trying to work another year of lottery.  They fetishize draft picks but a glut of them is actually kinda dangerous, that future potential needs to be re-invested into current capital expenditure (re: on-court production) or else you'll have a bumper crop of rookies dying on the vine.  If the Sixers end up with 3 lottery picks this year, then now is the time to spend money because 4 new rookies next year is not gonna get it done even in the East.