Heat
In
Jaime Jaquez (4yr/$17m), Dru Smith (2-way), Josh Richardson (2yr/$5.9m), Thomas Bryant (2yr/$5.4m), Cole Swider (Exhibit 10), Justin Chamagnie (Exhibit 10), Cheick Diallo (Exhibit 10), RJ Hampton (2-way)
Jaquez seems primed to become the next Heat culture creation, a dude everyone kinda likes but turns into a monster in Miami (though realistically, don't Smith and Champagnie have a better chance of becoming the next Heat-ensteins?). Richardson has had moments in this league, but that was a while ago, can the Heat resurrect him? (My guess is no) I always liked Bryant, he's not gonna get a lot of minute spelling Adebayo, but he could be a consistent small contributor. Diallo and Hampton are given the one-last-chance 2-way deals, Miami is probably the best case for both of those guys.
Out
Omer Yurtseven, Cody Zeller, Max Strus, Gabe Vincent, Victor Oladipo, Udonis Haslem
Udonis has finally moved on, though let's be honest, he's definitely one of those dudes that will hang around the office even after he retires, so is he really gone? Strus and Vincent were two huge scores for the Heat, two rocks that got polished up and found value out in the world (these two are the best advertisements for "Heat culture", no?). Zeller and Yurtseven are okay but weren't in the long term plans. Oladipo....man, does that guy still have anything left?
Re-signed
Kevin Love (2yr/$7.9m), Nikola Jovic (exercised rookie extension), Orlando Robinson (1yr/$3.9m), Jamal Cain (2-way)
Love is one of those guys that I have always misjudged: when I thought he was gonna be good, he turned into a pointless headache and when I thought he was gonna suck, he turns into a big time scorer. So what's he gonna do this year? No idea, I'll ust leave it at that. Time for Jovic to get some playing time, no? Robinson and Cain would be not worth mentioning on any other squad but in Miami they might turn into all-stars (or they might be not worth mentioning).
Rest of roster
Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro, Duncan Robinson, Caleb Martin, Kyle Lowry, Heywood Highsmith
Herro spent the summer in trade rumors but come Autumn, he's back in a Heat uniform. Is it gonna be awkward? Oh, it will be at first but that will go away because rumors are just rumors and they happen all the time. Lowry is finally on the way out, Robinson really needs to be re-born (if he rebounds, there's your Most Improved Player for this year), Martin shined out in the playoffs and really become a member of this squad. Butler and Bam are the linchpins.
Next summer's free agents
Lowry, Highsmith
Lowry is gone, gone, gone. Highsmith is playing for his next contract which might come from Miami.
Vegas over/under: 46.5 (I have them Under)
The Heat are notorious for being unpredictable about their regular season performance, some years they're into it, other years not so much. This is a team that cares about the post-season but it only occasionally occurs to them that being good in the regular season is a good launchpad into the playoffs. We'll see. To me the real wild card this season is Bam Adebayo: notice that he just turned down the big extension, which signals that he will be balling out this year. If he stays healthy and keeps his head straight, he could win the MVP this year. Butler (like Kawhi) has the peak of an all-pro but the median of a barely average guy; I don't think he 'll bring it til the playoffs, so this is Bam's team and if Bam wants to win the MVP, then the Heat are gonna be handful this season. Herro is ready to play, Martin needs to show that he actually is as good as he looked in the Finals run, Lowry is auditioning for his next team, Jovic is the new kid and we'll see where Jaquez fits in. This team has the widest variance, I'd say, if they feel like being good, they'll be a top 3 team in the East, but if they feel like saving it for the playoffs, they might be back in the play-in. Both results seems pretty equal to me. I have them finishing with 46 W's, so I went Under but they could also waaaaaaay outperform that.
Hawks
In
Kobe Bufkin (4yr/$19.8m), Trent Forrestt (2-way), Wesley Matthews (1yr/$3.2m), Patty Mills, Miles Norris (2-way), Seth Lundy (2-way), Mouhamed Gueye (4yr/$7.6m)
Do Mills and Matthews still have anything to offer? Is Bufkin a star? Who is Gueye?
Out
Lou Williams, John Collins, Aaron Holliday, Vit Krejci, Tyrese Martin
Sweet Lou, we hardly knew ye (though we will be re-naming that 6th Man Award after ye, eventually). They finally traded Collins--hooray! Our long national nightmare is over! I always liked him but he was never really a good fit here.
Re-signed
Bruno Fernando (team exercised option), Dejounte Murray (4yr/$114m)
I think Murray (*) will look like a bargain soon enough. I like Fernando.
Rest of roster
Trae Young, Clint Capela, DeAndre Hunter, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Onyeka Okongwu, Saddiq Bey, AJ Griffin, Jalen Johnson, Garrison Matthews
John Collins is finally out of the way, so time for Hunter and Okongwu to firmly establish the front court. Bey didn't get his extension, so is he trade bait or is he ball-out mode? (Does he have room to ball out?) Is there room for Griffin to emerge--and I'm still in on Johnson, he could still blow up nicely. Oh yeah: there's Trae, too (I can't halp feeling like he'll be out by the end of the year, depends on how well they do in the first half of the season).
Next summer's free agents
Okongwu, Mills, Bey, Matthews
Okongwu just signed his extension, but Bey wasn't offered one. I can't see Mills being back next year, he's a good vet, he'll be somehere but I doubt its Atlanta. I was more impressed with Matthews in Milwaukee than I expected to be but not sure he fits in here (I say he gets waived at some point and goes back to Milwaukee).
Vegas over/under: 42.5 (I'll say Over)
This is a weird team and I go back and forth over what I think of them. They can be really good or really bad or somewhere in between. And since I think Trae is up for trade talks, its hard to figure how their success determines where this team will go. I dunno, I think they'll be pretty good all year long, then flame out in the playoffs and we go through major crises next summer with this squad.
Magic
In
GM Anthony Parker, Anthony Black (4yr/$32m), Jett Howard (4yr/$23m), Joe Ingles (2yr/$22m), Travelin Queen, Mac McClung (Exhibit 10), Miya Oni, Brandon Williams (Exhibit 10)
I didn't understand drafting Black or Howard, puzzling picks but maybe they see something I don't. They've drafted well lately but both of those guys seem like reaches that won't find much opportunity to develop, so not sure why they got either of them. I like Ingles but I'm not sure what he does for this team, like he's a nice vet that will keep the youngsters moving but this team is already built for the youngsters, so it feels like Ingles is just a waste of space here. Taking a flyer on McClung is probably just a cunard.
Out
Michael Carter-Williams, Bol Bol
I like Bol but he definitely needs to be in the perfect spot and I'm not sure there is one in the NBA, he'd be better off going to China and dominating or going to Europe and figuring out how to add to a team there.
Re-signed
Moe Wagner (2yr/$16m), Admiral Schofield (2-way), Exercised rookie extensions on Paulo Banchero, Franz Wagner, Jalen Suggs & Goga Bitadze
Hey, did anybody watch the same FIBA World Cup that I watched? The one where Germany won it all largely because of the outsized contribution of MOE Wagner? Yeah, everyone slobbered over Franz and it's not like he sucked, but Moe was the one making the plays and hitting the big shots. Will that translate to a bust out NBA season? It might, keep an eye on Moe for Most Improved. Picking up the extensions were all no-brainers (yeah, even Bitadze).
Rest of roster
Jonathon Isaac, Markelle Fultz, Wendell Carter Jr, Gary Harris, Cole Anthony, Chuma Okeke, Caleb Houstan
I was looking back over 2018 my pre-season NBA outlook and wrote that we still haven't seen what Isaac can do; dude, 5 years later we still haven't seen it! Is this the year? (I dunno, maybe) And will the wait be worth it? (That doesn't seem possible, right?) This is really a nice roster, man, I like all these guys and I think they fit together and understand each other. This is a good time to be a Magic fan, I'd say.
Next summer's free agents
Fultz, Harris, Anthony, Okeke
Anthony re-upped the other day, so he'll be back. I suspect Fultz will, too (or will be a prime sign-and-trade candidate). Harris is getting old, probably time for his to do the hired gun marauding around the league thing. Not sure about Okeke, feels like he'll be back in Summer League next year.
Vegas over/under: 38.5 (I'm going Over)
This is a team that is primed to blow up. This is Paulo's team with Franz as his sidekick, with a nice collection of talent around them. If Suggs takes a step forward, if Fultz stays healthy, if Moe builds on his solid summer and Isaac....does anything...then this team could be pretty good all year long and maybe even be a problem in the playoffs. In the NBA the young teams don't win but with Carter and Fultz and Harris, they've actually got some good veteran presence and even these youngsters don't feel that young (especially since I don't see the rookies seeing the floor at all). This will be a fun watch on League Pass all year long.
Hornets
In
Brandon Miller (4yr/$49.5m), Nick Smith Jr. (4yr/$12.6m), Amari Bailey (2-way), Leaky Black (2-way), Frank Ntilikina (1yr/$2.5m), RJ Hunter, Nathan Mensah (Exhibit 10), Edmond Sumner (1ys/$?), Theo Maledon (2-way)
Man, for a team that needs a youth injection and feel-good story at the same time, bringing in Brandon Miller (wrongful death suit against him just got filed) feels like bad karma just waiting to happen. Throwing in misfit retreads like Hunter and Ntilikina don't inspire me, either. Sumner and Maledon might be rotation guys, so some of these pieces may fit.
Out
Dennis Smith Jr, Kelly Oubre, Svi Mykhailiuk, Kai Jones
To part ways with Greatest of All Time Kai Jones is just another day in Hornet land. Smith and Svi and Oubre maybe could've helped this team but hard to imagine they'll regret any of those moves.
Re-signed
Miles Bridges (1yr/$7.9m), LaMelo Ball (5yr/$205.9m), PJ Washington (3yr/$46.5m)
I was never as big a fan of LaMelo as most others but I love PJ more than most, so feels like those two moves balance out (right? Is that how it works?). And bringing back Miles Bridges (surrendered to a warrant last week) is another cloud hanging over head.
Rest of roster
Terry Rozier, Cody Martin, James Bouknight, Nick Richards, Mark Williams, Bryce McGowen, JT Thor, Gordon Hayward,
Are we gonna see Thor or Bouknight this year? Hayward and Richards and Rozier are probably better as trade bait than rotation players. And while I like Richards and Williams, neither of them will make a life-changing difference.
Next summer's free agents
Hayward, Bridges
Hard to imagine Hayward back. Bridges, though, troubling as his presence is, does provide value that they'll have to capture somehow.
Vegas over/under: 30.5 (gotta go Under)
This team may be much better than I'm giving them credit for but a team built around LaMelo Ball, a rookie, and a bunch of trade bait does not inspire much confidence. I got Coach Clifford as a lock to get fired by season's end (though he's hardly the problem with this team), maybe even the first fired. How long before LaMelo wants out? And does anyone want him?
Wizards
In
Bilal Coulibaly (4yr/$30.1m), Tyus Jones, Mike Muscala, Danilo Galinari, Landry Shamet, Jordan Poole, Ryan Rollins, Patrick Baldwin Jr., Eugene Omorutyi (2-way), Jared Butler (2-way), Jules Bernard (Exhibit 10), Michael Foster Jr
This is Poole's team now, I think he'll be good enough to pile up numbers but not good enough to keep them out of the lottery. I love Jones but he's playing for his next contract (after Klay Thompson moves on, he'll fit in nicely in Golden State, right?). Curious to see Coulibaly, dude's got a buzz about him. I can see Shamet and Baldwin being nice role guys here (good enough to be trade bait...?).
Out
Kristaps Porzingis, Bradley Beal, Jordan Goodwin, Isaiah Todd, Monte Morris
Beal was arguably the most overly-beloved player of the last decade, but frankly he was choking the franchise and moving on from him is the greatest breath of fresh air this squad has had in a while. Porzingis played well for the Wiz, when he was in there, they were right to move on though.
Re-signed
Kyle Kuzma (4yr/$90m), Taj Gibson (1yr/?), Coach Wes Unseld Jr (2yr extension)
I like Kuzma, think he'll fit nicely with Poole, I think that duo will be the faces of this team for the next 2-3 years. Is Coach Unseld worth a re-up? I kinda doubt it.
Rest of roster
Daniel Gafford, Delon Wright, Deni Avdija, Johnny Davis, Corey Kispert, Anthony Gill, Xavier Cooks
A lot of trade bait. I'm be surprised if Wright is still on this team by the end of the season. Avdija is playing for his next contract--or he'll be shipped out at the trade deadline. I'd be surprised if Johnny Davis is anywhere but Washington, Gafford, Kispert and Gill could all be in new uniforms by the end.
Next summer's free agents
Jones, Wright, Galinari, Avdjia, Muscala, Gill
Is Avdija a keeper? That's what this season will determine for him. I'd be surprised if Jones re-signs here next summer. The rest are probably all gone by next summer, too.
Vegas over/under: 24.5 (Under)
Best bet is to aim for the #1 pick, I don't dislike the talent but there's no real fit for these guys and once Poole takes over, everyone else will check out. I think this team quickly becomes Poole getting stats and everyone else standing around watching. I just don't see the upside on this team even though I love Tyus Jones and kinda dig Avdija and really curious to see Coulibaly, but I just don't see the W's.
(*) A Utah Jazz fan friend of mine hit me with a hot take that I kinda loved. For years Quinn Snyder, while coaching the Jazz was the presumed successor for Coach Popovic in San Antonio. So how did he end up in Atlanta? My friend theorizes that after all those years of side-eying the Spurs, he fell in love with Dejounte Murray. Aha! Keep an eye on Trae Young, friends, according to this theory Snyder sees this as Murray's team not Trae's. I'm in and I think Trae is legit trade bait this year.
No comments:
Post a Comment