Grizzlies
In
Derrick Rose (2yr/$6.6m), Marcus Smart, GG Jackson (2-way), Shaq Harrison (Exhibit 10), Adonis Arms, David Johnson
Smart has plenty of grit-and-grind in him, Memphis fans should love him. But I'm not sure a combo of Smart and D-Rose (and no Tyus Jones) will be enough to make up for the 25 game suspension of Ja. I know it doesn't seem like they lost a lot but I feel like they needed a little more than (basically) just Smart.
Out
Tyus Jones, Dillon Brooks
Jones has been arguably the best 2nd string PG in the league for several years now--and you may think that doesn't matter but it does! The PG off the bench has to keep the attack up with lesser players and without a team can give away the advantage of superior starters. I'm telling you: losing Jones is a big deal for this team. Oh, and I love Brooks! And losing him is gonna be tough on this team, too. Granted Brooks was given to selifh, ridiculous outbursts but within the run of play he was actually very controlled and did well to not overstep his bounds, the Grizz are gonna miss his defensive intensity and his offensive restraint. I get that his downfall against Lebron in the playoffs last year was kinda hilarious, but Brooks is a good player and he'll be tough to replace.
Re-signed
Desmond Bane (5yr/($197.5m)
I love Bane, perhaps the most underappreciated player in the league the last few years. He kinda does everything well and without Ja, he's kinda all they got. Great deal, he's probably worth more.
Rest of roster
Ja Morant, Jaren Jackson Jr, Luke Kennard, Steven Adams, Brandon Clarke, Zaire Williams, Jake LaRavia, David Roddy, John Konchar, Santi Aldama, Xavier Tillman, Kenneth Lofton
Ja will be serving a 25-game suspension to start the season. Jackson won DPOY last year (with basically identical numbers as Nic Claxton) but I found his performance with Team USA kinda lackluster this summer (yeah, yeah, different venue, different game, but still I expected a little more from the reigning DPOY). I don't like JJJ has much as most, he's fine but I don't see him as the cornerstone of this team (especially without Ja). Kennard is a nice player, gives the Grizz the perimeter scorer they've never really had but he also tends to play his way out of rotations. Adams seems like a really cool guy and a perfectly serviceable vet down low, but he's also hurt all the time and only getting older. Clarke and Williamd and LaRavia and Roddy and Konchar and Aldama and Loften all have their moments, but really none of them have ever done much in this league.
Next summer's free agents
Tillman
Meh.
Vegas over/under: 45.5 (I gotta go Under)
The Grizzlies have done pretty well without Ja over the last coupla years, but 25 games to start the season will be a tough period for them, followed by another 10-15 games of Ja getting his game back and they have to add in Smart while getting over the loss of Jones and Brooks. I dunno, man, I think that's a tougher road than most are anticipating especially considering a supporting cast that has a lot of pebbles but not many boulders. I never really noticed how down on this team I am until now but I'm not that in on the Grizz this season. I think they struggle all season, then win a bunch late to get them into the play-in (where I have them beating the Wolves for 7th place). Can they fart around all season and then turn it on late? Maybe. Can they win without Ja and endure changes in the roster without skipping a beat? Eh, I suppose its possible but I don't think so. This might be a lost season for the Grizz.
Mavs
In
Richaun Holmes, Dereck Lively (4yr/$22.3m), Grant Williams, Dante Exum (2yr/$6.2m), Seth Curry (2yr/$8m), Olivier Maxence-Prosper (4yr/$13.9m), Greg Brown III (Exhibit 10), Derrick Jones Jr (1yr/$2.7m), Dexter Dennis (Exhibit 10),
I always like Holmes. Williams will give them a PJ Tucker-ish toughness the Mavs haven't had in a while. And if Lively and/or Olivier can give them good minutes on defense, then that trio will pay off big time. Curry to add scoring off the bench, Exum to...what does he do? (Been in the league for 100 years and I'm not sure I've ever watched him once!) Feels like a pretty good summer for the Mavs.
Out
McKinley Wright, Christian Wood, Frank Ntilikina, Justin Holliday, Theo Pinson, Davis Bertans, Reggie Bullock, JaVale Mcgee
Meh. Nothing irreplaceable in there.
Re-signed
Kyrie Irving (3yr/$126m), Dwight Powell (3yr/$12m), Markieff Morris (1yr/$3.2m)
Gulp! Okay, well Kyrie isn't anyone's idea of a good time--and, oh hey! He costs $125 million! *nervous laughter* A bargain! Heh heh....*gulp* They had to do it, they couldn't afford to let that price point just walk out of the building, but, man, is he really the guy you want to build around for the next 3 years (or until his next grand realization about life)? I like Powell, that's a great deal. Very reasonable price for Markieff, too.
Rest of roster
Luke Doncic, Tim Hardaway Jr, Maxi Kleber, Josh Green, Jaden Hardy
Luka is still top 5 in this league and that's pretty good. The rest make for a nice rotation. Do Green or Hardy have leaps to make?
Next summer's free agents
Green
Time to see what they've got with Green, he's had moments but Dallas might not be the best fit for him, so he could be a change-of-scenery trade piece.
Vegas over/under: 46.5 (I'm going Under)
I like Luka as much as the next guy, but his presence alone doesn't get you 50 wins. Kyrie's talent is unimpeachable but his ability to not contribute is, too, and I just always feel queasy about any team that relies heavily on him. As for the rotation, well, I'd like them better if the lead dog was either Luka or Kyrie, rather than some unholy amalgam of the two. Also, still not convinced Jason Kidd is much of a coach and, yeah, I've got real questions about this team. I think their run to the conference finals 2 years ago was a bit of a fluke, and I can't help thinking they're closer to the low (not making the playoffs last year) than their high. Sorry, Mavs fans, I'm just not feeling this team. I have them playing their win into the playoffs and then losing pronto to the Nuggets.
Pelicans
In
Jordan Hawkins (4yr/$20.6m), Cody Zeller (1yr/$3.2m), Kaiser Gates (2-way), Tevian Jones (Exhibit 10), Malcolm Hill (Exhibit 10), Jalen Crutcher, Trey Jemison (Exhibit 10)
None of these guys are making or breaking this team.
Out
Willy Hernandez, Javonte Smart, Jaxson Hayes, Josh Richardson, Garrett Temple
None of those guys made nor broke this team.
Re-signed
EJ Liddell (3yr/$6.2m), Herb Jones (4yr/$53.8m), Nnaji Marshall (4yr/$5.3m)
Great deal for Jones, a reliable 3-and-D man. Marshall is a nice player and that's a good deal. Liked Liddell in NCAA, haven't really seen him since, looks like an affordable deal, though.
Rest of roster
CJ McCollum, Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram, Jonas Valenciunas, Larry Nance, Dyson Daniels, Kira Lewis Jr, Trey Murphy, Naji Marshall, Jose Alvarado
Okay, Zion, are you playing this year or...taking another year off? If Zion shows this team could be pretty good, but until they figure out his mercurial moods, this team will live in the Twilight Zone. I Like McCollum and Ingram and Jonas and Nance and all the rest just fine, this is a pretty good supporting cast for a star. Just waiting to see if the star shines or not.
Next summer's free agents
Valenciunas, Lewis, Hernangomez, Zeller
I think I'd be surprised if any of these dudes are back next year.
Vegas over/under: 44.5 (I'll go Under)
Hey, if Zion shows up, this team could be top 4 in the West. But if he doesn't, they'll be struggling to be a play-in team. I'm guessing he'll be in and out all year long, so I got them at the lower end of that range. I have them finishing 10th and then losing in the play-in. I always had doubts about Zion's durability and...I still do.
Rockets
In
Amen Thompson (4yr/$40m), Cam Whitmore (4yr/$15.6m), Fred Van Vleet (3yr/$128.5m), Jeff Green (1yr/$15m), Jock Landale (4yr/$32m), Dillon Brooks, Aaron Holiday (1yr/$2.4m), Jermaine Samuels (2-way), Nate Hinton (Exhibit 10), Reggie Bullock (1yr/$3.2m), Victor Oladipo, Jeremish Robinson-Earl, Coach Ime Udoke
Okay, nice mix of vets I like (Van Vleet, Green, Brooks, Bullock), promising rookies (Thomson, Whitmore), some bench thickeners (Holiday, Landale, Robinson-Earl) and even a who-knows wild card (Oladipo), and a brand new hard-ass coach (Udoke) to pull it out together with the youth movement already under way. The Rockets will be different this year, that's for sure.
Out
Daishen Nix, DJ Augustine, Willie Cauley-Stein, Frank Kaminsky, Michael Frazier, TyTy Washington, Usman Garuba, Josh Christopher, Kenyon Martin Jr, Kevin Porter Jr
I liked Garuba, Christopher and Nix but they aren't devastating losses. I didn't even know they had Willie Cauley, DJA or Frank the Tank. And, frankly, they needed to be rid of Kevin Porter Jr (and I'm not even referring to his off the court legal troubles). So no big losses--and some real addition by subtraction here.
Re-signed
Boban Marjonivic (1yr), Darius Days (2-way), Trevor Hudgins (2-way)
Boban is back!
Rest of roster
Jalen Green, Jabari Smith, Jae'Sean Tate, Alperen Sengun, Tari Eason
And we come to the core. Time for Green to take a step forward, for Sengun to continuing maturing into a real center of gravity, Smith to continuing his steady development last year, and for Tate and Eason to just keep doing what they do.
Next summer's free agents
Oladipo, Holiday, Marjanovic, Bullock
None of those guys will be back next year.
Vegas over/under: 31.5 (I went Under)
Yeah, I like the moves they made this summer and they've laid the groundwork for a meaningful turnaround. This could be the team that blows up. If all these moves work out, if the vets contribute like they're supposed to, the rookies fit in just right and young core each take a step forward under the new vision of a powerful coach, this team could be really fuckin' good right away. I'm not betting on it, though, even in a shaky division. I just kinda feel like this team has gotten used to being slack and it will take a little while before Coach Udoke drills winning into them. Next year, I can see them shocking the hell out of people but not this year (I'd be shocked if it was this year).
Spurs
In
Victor Wembemyama (4yr/$55.6m), Sir'Jabari Rice (2-way), Cedi Osman, Sidy Cissoko (3yr/$5.2m), Charles Bediako (Exhibit 10),
The Wemby has landed. I'll go ahead and say this about Wemby's Rookie year: I think he's gonna have crazy ups and crazy downs and every time the talking heads say something good, they'll quickly find something bad to follow it with. The highlights are already impressive but while he'll dominate some match-ups, he'll struggle in others, leaving us to wonder all year long if he's really the deal. I think he's really the deal but I also think the Spurs will shut down at some point and he won't play enough games to impress the ROY voters (though I think the ROY voters typically do it all wrong and he might still be worthy of the Award even if he doesn't win it). Curious to see if Osman blows up this year (I've been waiting and this actually might be the year).
Out
Romeo Langford, Gorgui Dieng, Keita Bates-Diop
I always liked Dieng but he was long past his prime. I always liked Bates-Diop, too, but he was kinda built to bounce around. Never saw it with Langford.
Re-signed
Devin Vassell (5yr/$135m), Coach Popovic (5yr/$80m), Tre Jones (2yr/$19m), Julian Champagnie (4yr/$12m), Dominck Barlow (2-way), Sandro Mamukelashvili (1yr/$2m)
Coach Pop wanted 5 more years, huh? Either he really believes in Wemby or....he had nothing better to do anyway (could be both, I guess). I like Vassell, the deal seems a little rich but now was the time, so it was a good deal. Jones, Champagnie and Mamukelashvili will play in this rotation.
Rest of roster
Keldon Johnson, Doug McDermott, Devonte Graham, Zach Collins, Khem Birch, Jeremy Sochan, Malaki Branham, Charles Bassey, Blake Wesley
Nice supporting cast and now they've got a star to build around.
Next summer's free agents
McDermott, Collins, Birch, Osman, Mamukelashvili, Cissoko
I see no way that McDermott or Birch are back next year. Collins and Osman are playing for their next deals, could be in San Antone. The other two need to fit their way in.
Vegas over/under: 28.5 (I'll go Under)
I'm going Under because I think the Spurs aren't in any hurry with Wemby. They've got three 1st round picks in each of the next 2 drafts, I think the mission for now is to acclimate Wemby and then fill it in around him. They've already got a nice supporting cast but slowly shedding those guys for the next mix of vets and rookies is the long term plan. The Spurs aren't in any hurry to win and they'll shut Wemby down at some point. But we'll get a nice pile of highlights, looking forward to them already.
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