Texans 10-34 Ravens
I've been saying all season that the Ravens had a knack for getting everyone's worst game; so when the Texans go for 5 false starts (each of of their O-linemen had one, how unifying!), a delay of game and a neutral zone infraction--do you see what I mean? The Ravens didn't do any of that. The Ravens did a hell of a job keeping QB Stroud from getting going but the pre-snap penalties did more to hold the Texans back than the Ravens did. 10-10 at halftime but the Texans just couldn't get stops in the 2nd half, they couldn't move the ball and it looked like they were playing in mud. The Ravens took a while to get going but this game was never in any doubt. The Texans had a few nice W's down the stretch, had a good season, looks like offensive ROY belongs to them, and they're in a shaky division, so the future is looking so much better now than it was a year ago. But the Ravens were better.
Packers 21-24 Niners
Wow, great game! I still stand by the notion that the reason the Packers beat the Cowboys had more to do with the Cowboys than the Packers, but I was remiss in not pointing out how great the Packers O-line played in that game. And that O-line was great again against the Niners. The Packers have their RB and their QB, bring back that O-line (give raises where needed) and pray that those receivers play as hard as they did the last 6 weeks, spend all your draft capital on defense and I'd say the Packers are ready to start next season today--clearly in the lead for the big bump team. As for the Niners, well, they did what they needed to do to win but when Deebo Samuel went out and never came back, it was a reminder that as good as this squad is on paper, in real life it is a bit fragile. Throw in that DE Bossa didn't do much (hell, I forgot DE Chase Young was even out there!) and even though LB Fred Warner seemed to be everywhere, the Packers still moved the ball convincingly. So how do we see this? I'm going with the Packers were the shocker team that played their best football in the playoffs, got one big upset and almost got another. The Niners did what they needed to do but I was expecting a thrashing and it didn't come and that's...awkward.
Bucs 23-31 Lions
Fun game, 1st half was back and forth action, the 2nd half was a chess match, riveting entertainment throughout. The Lions were the better side all year and I thought that carried through this game, although it was a struggle, Tampa Bay didn't make it easy, All season long the Bucs were the anything-can-happen team: maybe they light you up for 40 or maybe they turn the ball over, convert no 3rd downs and are long dead by halftime. This was maybe the best game they played all year and even though I was impressed with their secondary, they just couldn't keep the Lions out of the end zone. Good year for the Bucs, I can see this roster being totally different next year but that division is still winnable, so wouldn't be surprised to see the Bucs back in the playoffs next year.
Chiefs 27-24 Bills
Another heartbreaker for the Bills (wide right, seriously?), but deep down we all know they were gonna lose in OT anyway. The Bills defense was decimated by injuries, the sheer amount of talent gone became too much to overcome and the Chiefs moved the ball without effort from beginning to end. The Bills moved the ball well, too, and they were in position to tie the game late, so a pretty even contest, though the Chiefs D was one of the best in the league this year while the Bills were at 3rd or 4th string all over the place. The Bills adopted a more conservative game plan (thank god!), running the ball effectively, piling up 1st downs and piling up time of possession; but if they had done from the 1st week of the season, perhaps they wouldn't have had so many defensive injuries. I still believe in the Bills offense (re: Josh Allen and whoever they give him to catch the ball) and I kinda still believe in the Bills defense, but they need to find a holistic way to move the ball without putting their own defense in tough positions. Good W for the Chiefs (I mean, Mahomes).
Conference
Chiefs @ Ravens (-4) (44.5)
Can Mahomes go into Baltimore and will a victory against a team that has kinda dominated (but has also been less impressive than most "dominant" teams)? Yeah, I think so. Mahomes is pretty great, man, already in the GOAT debate and he's still pretty young. Can the Chiefs D get stops and corral MVP Lamar Jackson? Yeah, I think so. The Chiefs D is by far the best that they've had in the Mahomes era, feels like the Chiefs have hit the kind of balance that great franchises dream of. So am I picking the Chiefs? No. I've been suggesting that the Ravens are fraudulent and that the day would come when they would meet an opponent that got the best of them and I think I still believe that....but the Chiefs aren't that team. I would've given Buffalo a better shot at keeping pace with the Ravens than the Chiefs. The Dolphins and Bills defenses were both torn to shreds by injuries, so the playoff matches the Chiefs have played so far were 3rd rate at best, but that is not the case with the Ravens, whose defense was better anyway and isn't particularly racked by injuries. So Mahomes will face more intensity than anything he's seen so far. Can the Chiefs defense fustigate Lamar? Yeah, that pass rush is pretty good, they're a veteran crew and they've played all year. So am I picking the Chiefs? No. I think the Ravens maintain a lead throughout, the Chiefs hang around and keep the game competitive. But by the 4th quarter, Lamar will have figured out what he needs to do and the Mahomes will be completely worn down to nothing, both teams will score, both teams will get stops, but the Ravens will be the better side. Tough to bet against Mahomes but I think the Ravens are too good for Mahomes to take single-handedly. So a relatively close game, but I like the Ravens to be in control throughout and to separate down the stretch. Ravens 31-24 (Ravens and the over).
Lions @ Niners (-7) (51.5)
The Niners at full strength are the best team in the league; that said, they're not at full strength very often. Last week, the Packer O-line held them at bay for the most part but the Niners talent came to the fore and pulled out the victory. The Lions are pretty good when they bring it but you just know they're going to make x amount of mistakes per game. Can the Niners take full advantage of the Lions sleepy moments? I think the Niners need to get a lead early, which will allow them to take more chances on both sides of the ball. If the Niners can make the Lions play catch-up from the jump, then I think they'll win comfortably. The Lions best bet is to be slow and steady, avoid giving up big plays on defense and chew the clock with a running game on offense; if they can do that, I think they can hang with the Niners and be in position to take advantage of Niner mistakes. This game comes down to mistakes: which team will capitalize and which will give up their advantage. Well, as I said, the Niners at their best are the best team and while I'm skeptical of their BEST best, I think they get close enough to it to hold off a furious Lion comeback in the 4th quarter. I'll take the Niners 31-27 (Lions and the over), but if there's gonna be a blowout on Sunday, it'll be this game.
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