Celtics
In
Jrue Holiday, Kristaps Porzingis, Jordan Walsh (4yr/$7.6m), Oshae Brissett (2yr/$4.6m), Jay Scrubb (2-way), Dalano Banton (2yr/$4.2m), Svi Mykhailliuk (1yr/$2.4m), Neemias Queets (2-way), Lamar Stevens
Holiday and Porzingis walk into Boston as the two highest paid players on the roster--that's a bit of a culture shock! KP is an experiment but I think a worthwhile one: hey, man, Porzingis has matured as a person and a player as much as anyone I think I've ever seen. He was a selfish punkass when he first donned a Knick uni and after a coupla years of bouncing around, he has been properly humbled and learned what his true talents on the court are. I think the Celtics are getting the right guy at the right time. And Holiday is the hard nosed Marcus Smart-replacement that this team needed. Their two big moves like like two big wins already.
Out
Marcus Smart, Danilo Gallinari, Mike Muscala, Mfioundu Kebengale, Blake Griffin, Grant Williams, Justin Champagnie, Robert Williams, Malcolm Brogdon
A lot out but the Celtics retained the bulk of their muscle, so this all seems like addition by subtraction. Smart is the most up-and-down player of the last decade or so, Brogdon just won 6th Man and he's already out, Robert Williams was the best rim protector they've had in eons but he was also injury-prone, Grant Williams gave them toughness but maybe a little more reckless than was beneficial, Galinari was never able to play for them and Griffin was nice but nothing irreplaceable. A lot of moves but it feels like the rotation has been streamlined.
Re-signed
Jaylen Brown (5yr/$288.3m), Payton Pritchard (4yr/$30m), JD Davison (2-way)
That price tag for Jaylen may seem like too much but that's the price at the time and the Celtics had to pay it, so it was the right move. Pritchard is a nice player off the bench and that contract seems reasonable.
Rest of roster
Jaysun Tatum, Derrick White, Al Horford, Luke Kornet, Sam Hauser
Tatum is the heartbeat, White is the main playmaker, Horford is the adult in the room and Kornet and Hauser will play meaningful minutes.
Next summer's free agents
Kornet
Meh. I'm sure Kornet is a nice guy but letting him go will not be traumatic.
Vegas over/under: 54.5 (I'll go Over)
I think the Celtics are in business to be the #1 seed. I have them coming up short to the Bucks but I wouldn't be surprised if Game Seven of the Eastern Conference Finals is in the Garden. Yeah, they've had a lot of turnover from last year's rotation and they've got two new big pieces to integrate but the real wild card of this team is Coach Mazzulla. If he's up for it, this team should be really really good every night, but if he struggles, it may take a while for this team to find their rhythm. I think they'll be just fine and the real worry is injuries (just like everybody else).
Sixers
In
Ricky Council (2-way), Terquavion Smith (2-way), Mo Bamba (1yr/$2.4m), Azuolas Tubelis (2-way), Filip Petrusev (2yr/$3m), Javonte Smart (Exhibit 10), David Duke Jr (1yr), Danny Green (1yr/$3.2m), Kelly Oubre (1yr)
Oubre and Bamba are nice additions but they won't make any huge difference between last year and this year. Nor will Danny Green or, I suspect, any of these other guys.
Out
Dewayne Dedmon, Shake Milton, Georges Niang, Jalen McDaniels, Mac McClung, Louis King, Marcus Bagley
Niang, I thought, was a consistent steadying force off the bench for the Sixers in the last coupla years and missing him might be a bigger deal than they think. Milton, too, is a nice player who could've grown nicely into a role with this team but the Sixers moved on; not the end of the world, but continuity matters and Philly's additions don't strike me as bigger than the subtractions.
Re-signed
Pat Beverley (1yr/$3.2m), Paul Reed (3yr/$23.6m), Montrezl Harrell (1yr/$2.9m)
I like Reed, though I think the Sixers could've let him go. PatBev is nice but overrated--if you think he's gonna take the Sixers to the promised land, I think you're nuts. And why bring back Trez? They never figured out what to do with him, do they assume Coach Nurse will use him better than Coach Rivers did? Maybe but not obvious.
Rest of roster
Joel Embiid, Tobias Harris, James Harden, PJ Tucker, De'Anthony Melton, Furkan Korkmaz, Tyrese Maxey, Danuel House Jr, Jaden Springer
So how long does the Harden madness last? How hard will it be to ship him out--which seems like the only possible conclusion to this drama? If they can convince Harden to play, I think that could work just fine but I suspect they'll have to move on and incorporate whatever comes back in his place.
Embiid is at the peak of his powers. Harris, as maligned as he is, is a good fit for this team. Maxey should be ready to take a step forward (with or without Harden). Tucker and Melton and House know their roles and will be just fine. If Harden moves on, I'd be interested to see if Korkmaz can finally get his shot at being a regular part of this rotation.
Next summer's free agents
Harris, Harden, Melton, Korkmaz, Maxey, House, Harrell, Bamba, Beverley, Green, Duke, Oubre, Petrusev
A lot of choices looming next summer. Obviously Harden won't be one of them, but the rest will cause a fair amount of agitation.
Vegas over/under: 48.5 (I got Under)
The Sixers are built around Embiid and whatever, so however the Harden saga plays out, they know who they are and they have their heart in place. But the turmoil will put a lid on how great this team can be in the regular season and throw in that the Bucks and Celtics have made for-real improvements, I think the Sixers will struggle to hang on to that 4th place slot in the East. I think they will, but it won't be easy.
Raptors
In
Denis Schroder (2yr/$25.4m), Gradey Dick (4yr/$21.4m), Jeff Dowtin (1yr/$2m), Ron Harper Jr (2-way), Markquis Nowell (2-way), Jalen McDaniels (2yr/$9.3m), Javon Freeman-Liberty (2-way), Garret Temple (1yr/$3.2m), Mouhamadou Gueye (2-way), Makur Maker
Schroder is perfect for this team and if they just let him do his thing, I think the Raptors could be really good. And Dick looks like another long, lean Raptor swing man, ever more depth to the 2nd string. The rest are fine but Schroder is the new leader and Dick is the next up in the rotation.
Out
Dalano Banton, Fred Van Vleet, Will Barton, Joe Wieskamp
I like Van Vleet but I always thought he was too much of the focus in Toronto, he's a 6th Man type (a la Tyus Jones) and in that role he can be truly great; but as the tone-setter....meh. It's not that they're better off without him, I think the ideal would've been a starting PG to move Van Vleet back to the bench, but that's not the way it worked out. Banton had moments and I forgot Barton was there last year.
Re-signed
Jakob Poetl (4yr/$78m)
Poetl is the for-real center that this team has needed for years and after he arrived at the deadline last year, the Raptors played much better and had a real identity. Now they've got a new coach, can they maintain what they had with Poetl? (I think the answer is yes)
Rest of roster
Pascal Siakam, OG Anunoby, Gary Trent Jr, Chris Boucher, Scottie Barnes, Thaddeus Young, Otto Porter Jr, Precious Achiuwa, Malachi Flynn, Christian Koloko
I love the Raptor roster theory: wave after wave of long, lean swingmen that are tough to get around and hard to guard. They just need one PG to drive the car (I think Schroder is the guy) and everyone else just dives to the rim and plays tough D.
Next summer's free agents
Siakam, Trent, Young, Porter, Temple, Achiuwa, Flynn, Dowtin, Gueye, Harper, Maker
I suspect Siakam is a sign-and-trade next summer. If this team is good this year, then the rest will mostly be brought back; if this team totally blows, then most will be traded by the deadline or not brought back next summer. This year's success determines which of these guys they hold on to and which ones they let go.
Vegas over/under: 36.5 (Holy shit, way Over)
This team could go Over and still have a massively disappointing year! This number is way too low. Unless you think this team sucks early and blows it all up right away, then you have to go Over. I don't think they will suck--and even if they do, they're still early enough into the Shroder and Coach Rajakovic era that they have to give it some time. So I don't see a major blow up (though Siakam will be the center of all the rumors) and I think they'll be pretty good anyway. I have them as 8th in the East and real pain in the ass in the playoffs.
Knicks
In
Donte DiVincenzo (4yr/$46.9m), Jacob Toppin (1yr/$1.1m), Nathan Knight (2-way), Dylan Windler (2-way), Charles Brown Jr (Exhibit 10), Ryan Arcidiacano
DiVincenzo has been one of the most underappreciated players of the last few years and I think he's a great pickup for the Knicks. Will he carry them deep into the post-season? No, but he'll give them energy off the bench and keep them from getting droopy.
Out
Derrick Rose, Obi Toppin, Isaiah Roby
Personally, I thought Coach Thibodeau's fetish for Rose was unnecessary and unrealistic and it is probably better for the team that Rose is no longer there to take up important minutes. I've always been curious about Toppin but getting stuck behind Julius Randle was never gonna work for him, good for him to get out to an opportunity to play.
Re-signed
Josh Hart (4yr/$80.9m)
I like Hart but I also find him to be a bit overrated. He brings energy and some swagger and that's fine, but he isn't a rock solid playmaker or money finisher, so while I admire his contribution, I also think it's not as great as you think it is. That said, they needed him back and this was the right deal.
Rest of roster
Julius Randle, Jalen Brunson, RJ Barrett, Evan Fournier, Mitchell Robinson, Isaiah Hartenstein, Immanuel Quickley, Quentin Grimes, DaQuan Jeffries, Jericho Sims, Miles McBride
Brunson-Randle-Barrett-Robinson with Grimes, Quickley and Hartenstein off the bench is a nice rotation. Fournier is obviously ready to move on with his life but Jeffries, Sims and McBride will contribute nicely.
Next summer's free agents
Hartenstein, Quickley, Jeffries, McBride, Knight, Toppin, Arcidiacano
Quickley is absolutely a keeper, but the rest probably will be off to new homes.
Vegas over/under: 46.5 (Gotta go Under)
I just don't love this team. I don't love Coach Thibs and Randle, Barrett and Robinson are okay but not the ideal core. Brunson and Quickley (my pick for 6th Man this year) form a great platoon, but as good as they are, I don't see them getting all that many W's. This is a tough division and I think the Knicks get swallowed up. I have them finishing 9th in the East.
Nets
In
Jalen Wilson (2-way), Dennis Smith Jr (1yr/$2.5m), Dariq Whitehead (4yr/$14.7m), Lonnie Walker (1yr/$2.3m), Noah Clowney (4yr/$15.2m), Darius Bazeley (1y/$2.2m), Armoni Brooks (2-way), Trendon Watford (1yr/$2m), Harry Giles (1yr/$?),
Okay, some interesting rookies (Whitehead, Clowney, Brooks), some reliable if unspectacular vets (Walker, Smith, Watford) and a full-on reclamation project (Giles). How does this mix in with the current roster? I dunno.
Out
David Duke, Seth Curry, Yuta Watanabe, Dru Smith, Patty Mills, Joe Harris, Edmond Sumner
Curry is the real loss here but this cast seems to be fairly similar to what they're bringing in, so I feel like looking forward is a better idea than trying to hold on to these guys.
Re-signed
Cameron Johnson (4yr/$94.5m)
I love Cam Johnson, so impressed with him in Phoenix and I love his hustle and his smarts. Not sure he's the right fit for this team because I feel like at his best he serves a big star and there isn't one here. So though I love the player, love the contract, he's better off on another team (if the Nuggets could figure out how to add him to their roster, they can go ahead and hang the next banner).
Rest of roster
Ben Simmons, Mikal Bridges, Spencer Dinwiddie, Dorian Finney-Smith, Nic Claxton, Royce O'Neale, Day'Ron Sharpe
Love Bridges but he's a server, not a star. Like Finney-Smith and Claxton and O'Neale but they need to be part of a better team. Sharpe is still interesting (though I think he's a role player looking for a samurai, like the rest of the roster). Okay, Simmons, all set up for you to be a star again....wanna be a star? Do you like basketball, Ben?
Next summer's free agents
Dinwiddie, Claxton, O'Neale, Bazley, Smith Jr, Walker, Giles
They've already got a solid cast of role players, they need a star. Until they get a star, these guys are fungible commodities.
Vegas over/under: 37.5 (I went Over)
Yes, Over but still missing the playoffs. So will they tank down the stretch and look to make trades? Or will they be close enough to the post-season that they go for it (and come up short)? That's the path I see them on come season's end. Frankly this whole roster is filled with nice players that need a leader to marshal them. If Ben Simmons wants to be that leader, then Simmons is your Most Improved player and maybe back in the all-Pro talk; but if not, then the Nets will be in trade rumors all year long because all these guys look better on other teams.
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