MVP: Nikola Jokic (Nuggets)
The Jokic-Giannis dynamic is still in effect (and I just do not see Emibiid getting there this season). The outliers to keep an eye on: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Thunder), Devin Booker (Suns) and Bam Adebayo (Heat).
Defensive Player: Evan Mobley (Cavs)
I just don't see Jaren Jackson Jr. or Marcus Smart getting the same kind of love, so the voters will be looking for someone new. Keep an eye on Rudy Gobert (Wolves), an old favorite that might re-emerge if the Wolves are a contender, Jrue Holiday (Celtics) if the Celtics come to truly need his defensive presence (which is very possible) and Nic Claxton (Nets), hey, why not? He had the exact same stats as JJJ last season.
Rookie: Chet Holmgren (Thunder)
OKC is ready to win now and they'll maximize Chet all year long. Obviously everyone is thinking Wembamyama (Spurs), but I think he'll have crazy highs and crazy lows for one of the lesser teams in the league and they'll shut him down before the end anyway, so while I am confident Wemby will give us many eye-popping highlights, at the end of the day I don't think voters will have enough to really evaluate (I say that as someone who thinks the typical ROY voter is totally wrong in their philosophies). Oh, by the way: Scoot Henderson (Blazers) is gonna be awesome, probably right away. Everyone is raving about the Thompson twins (Rockets, Pistons) and Keyontae George (Jazz) and further down the 2023 draft, I can see Cason Wallace (Thunder), Jaime Jaquez (Heat) and Gradey Dick (Raptors) fitting into their rotations right off.
6th Man: Malik Monk (Kings)
I think the Kings are gonna be really good and Monk is gonna have a great season mostly coming off the bench. So, you know....two and two. If you're really looking to see who wins this award, it is typically someone that has won it before, but since Lou Williams has finally retired, the voters may be forced to find someone new.
Coach of the Year: Mike Malone (Nuggets)/Joe Mazzulo (Celtics)
The Nuggets are going to be blithely awesome all year long and while usually COY goes to the team that makes the biggest leap (ahem, OKC and Orlando might be better picks), sometimes they just give it to the guy who is actually the coach of the best team. I think Malone is in a new place in his career and I can see the voters recognizing his ascendance to the top of the league.
Last year, Coach Maz had his tribulations but now the roster is in its final form and the coaching staff has been filled out, as well. The real trick to the Celtics season is whether Coach Maz finds his groove or not. I think he will and I think the Celtics will gel and be kinda great all year long.
Exec of the Year: Rafael Stone (Rockets)/Brad Stevens (Celtics)
Yeah, Stone is a left-field choice for this but the Rockets made some big, off-kilter swings (Van Vleet, Brooks) in the free agent market this summer, hired a controversial coach (Udoka), side-stepped the James Harden soap opera and endured some controversy at the top of their roster (Porter Jr) and I think by year's end, the Rockets will be a pretty good squad. They've got a combustible mix of youth and vets, a screamer for a coach and low expectations around the league (but a ravenous home fan base), there is plenty that can go wrong here. But I think it's gonna go right and by year's end we'll be looking at the Rockets as next year's bust out squad and while that may be a little too soon for Executive of the Year votes, I think this team will be in the forefront of voters' minds.
As for the Celtics, bringing in Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis could go sideways, but I think they're both great pick-ups and I think the Celtics dominate for the most part. Meanwhile, moving on from DPOY Marcus Smart, 6th Man Malcolm Brogdon and rim-protector Robert Williams will seem like brilliant moves, too, by season's end.
East Play-ins:
Raptors over Pacers; Magic over Knicks; Pacers over Magic
(1st Round) (1) Bucks over (8) Pacers in 6
(2) Celtics over (7) Raptors in 7
(6) Sixers over (3) Cavs in 7
(4) Heat over (5) Hawks in 7
(Quarterfinals) Bucks over Sixers in 6; Celtics over Heat in 5
(Semifinals) Celtics over Bucks in 7
West
Play-ins: Grizzlies over Wolves; Mavs over Pelicans; Mavs over Wolves
(1st Round) (1) Nuggets over (8) Mavs in 5
(7) Grizzlies over (2) Kings in 6
(3) Thunder over (6) Warriors in 5
(5) Lakers over (4) Suns in 7
(Quarterfinals) Nuggets over Grizzlies in 5; Thunder over Lakers in 6
(Semifinals) Nuggets over Thunder in 5
(Finals) Nuggets over Celtics in 6
No comments:
Post a Comment