1. Pistons -- Cade Cunningham (Okla St)
By this point it seems clear that the mocks all prefer Cunningham and the Pistons don't seem to want to trade down. Okay. If he's that great, totally worth it, great pick. I like youth movements and that Pistons roster is youthful, I'll be watching a lot of them next year, I'm rooting for him, I think it's a good fit, seems like a ROY favorite.
2. Rockets -- Evan Mobley (Southern Cal)
I dunno, he did not impress me in the NCAA tourney and that's all I've seen of him, perhaps that just wasn't his best two weeks. I get the upside: his game suggests he could rock the rim like Anthony Edwards, while still being a stout rim protector and that should be just fine for the Rockets. This doesn't make the Rockets any good, their youth movement hasn't actually taken shape yet which may be good (Mobley has plenty of room to develop his game) or bad (lack of winning can make players go crazy). I'm rooting for all these guys to be awesome, Mobley being a bust out badass for the Rockets might work, they've got a few years of rebuilding ahead (but the Rockets are natural born wheeler-dealers, so the faster Mobley becomes a star, the quicker the Rockets get back in the trade game).
3. Cavs -- Jalen Green (G-League)
Green is probably not the guy they want (but Suggs ain't either), as they've already got a glut of combo guards, but maybe more is better. Green strikes me as the type of ball handling attacker that's going to dominate possessions, maybe designing an attack built around nothing but dudes like that can work (I've never seen it but I'm willing to give it a try). The Cavs are in a weird spot: Kevin Love has got to go, probably some of the other core players (hmmm....perhaps even pick #3...), too. The team has some nice players but there's no shape to it at all, if Green turns into the kind of leader he can be, perhaps he whips this team into shape. Could happen (...but I doubt it, probably he just moves right into the pile of players that need a change of scenery--and he hasn't even gotten there yet!). I'd be afraid if I was a Cavs fan, if Mobley falls that would be ideal.
4. Raptors -- Jalen Suggs (Gonzaga)
I really dug Suggs in the tourney, he was a badass with the ball and controlling the tempo of the game, he had the senses of a winner. Does that translate to the pros? Yeah, I think it does. It'll take him a while to adjust to winning at the next level but the Raptors is probably a good spot for him: good rotational culture gives touches to everyone and for as much as people want to carve up that roster, I think they're still a pretty good team in the East and I think Suggs goes right into their rotation and handles himself just fine. I don't see him a bust out star as rookie, but a solid contributor, I think he's likely to maintain his good looking prospect-ness going into next summer and could get some ROY votes.
(Calling an audible. Magic trades #5 to Suns (*))
5. (SUNS) -- Alperen Sengun (Turkey)
Sure, why not? The buzz on this kid is pretty similar to Giannis: the you-gotta-see-this-guy that's so fuckin' dominant that you just doubt what you're looking at. Somebody's gonna take a chance on Sengun, it may well be the Magic at #5 (though more likely #8). If the Suns were going to make the move on from CP (which they, of course, are not, I'm just amusing myself here), Sengun might be the guy they have their eye on, even though Sengun has mostly been graded in 2nd rd territory, he's the one that someone's gonna reach on. He may be awesome (hey, I'm rooting for him), if so then I'd think he could work with Booker, Ayron and co. (Chris Duarte (Oregon) is the other guy I could see the Suns nabbing)
6. Thunder -- Scottie Barnes (Florida St)
Athletic combo guard that defends multiple positions, sounds good to me. This is the kinda guy that every team needs, the Thunder need him just like everybody else. I think the Thunder would do well to get Barnes at #6. Barnes doesn't make the Thunder any good, but the Thunder are eager to suck for at least one more year (maybe two, Thunder fans). So develop the youth, throw Barnes in the mix, lose a bunch of games, throw another top 10 pick in next year, then try to grab the right veteran leaders. Like Suggs, I don't see Barnes being a bust out star but I do expect him to be a reliable rotation guy right away.
7. Warriors (**) -- Jonathon Kuminga (G League)
Sounds like he's an amazing athlete-but-can-he-play-guy. Feels like Coach Kerr, Draymond, and Steph will teach him how to play, so while he probably won't help right away, I think bringing Wiseman along with Kuminga should get some worthwhile playing time. I think the Warriors could build some great depth in this draft. I get that #7 is a delicious trade bait, but I think they can find worthwhile roster additions here.
8. Magic -- Franz Wagner (Michigan)
This might be a little bit of a reach for Wagner, but he is prized for his defense first and the Magic are already young and deep at every position, it feels like the Magic are well positioned to give Wagener rotation time right away, which is probably exactly what he needs. If he can play D, then he can play, that's how it works in today's NBA (if he can knock down shot, damn he might be a star). I dunno, the Magic can really take just about anyone at #8, they're still gonna be insanely young and deep at every position. They're probably aiming for Kuminga to fall. They need anything and everything and nothing at all.
9. Kings -- Jalen Johnson (Duke)
Yeah, this is probably a reach but I got feeling that Johnson is the one that falls and should not have and since the Kings need any/everything, why not reach? (In my mock Sungun is already off the board, but the Kings at #9 are a good bet to grab him in real life; or Zhaire Williams (Stanford))
10 Grizzlies (in the guise of the Pelicans) -- Keon Johnson (Tennessee)
Not sure what the Grizzlies are looking for at the moment. Moving off Valenciunas for Adams suggests to me that they're planning on keeping Adams (while I suspect they've got a buyer for Bledsoe). I don't see a core need, Memphis is actually coming along nicely, the attack built around Ja Morant and Dillon Brooks looks pretty good actually, Johnson gives them a healthy dose of D and athleticism off the bench. (Already starting to lose my grasp on these players).
11 Hornets -- Corey Kispert (Gonzaga)
The big white kid is still on the board? Dude, you know he's going to Charlotte.
12 Spurs -- Davion Mitchell (Baylor)
The perfect Spur (tough, hard working, disciplined, over acheiver) but arrives into a crowded backcourt. Probably take him a while to get off the bench--which seems counterintuitive with the older Mitchell--but I think he'll be good down the line.
13 Pacers -- Usman Garuba (Real Madrid)
Another reach! Garuba has been getting more buzz lately, I think the Pacers take their shot on a foreign star (who may not think Indianapolis is so bad).
14 Warriors -- James Bouknight (UConn)
If the Warriors end up with Kuminga and Bouknight to go with Wiseman, then I think no one looks back and wonders why they didn't trade for (imaginary superstar).
15 Wizards -- Moses Moody (Arkansas)
Seems like Moody should go higher than #15. I have enough reaches so far to ensure that the Wizards draft him on ranking alone.
16 Thunder -- Miles McBride (West Virginia)
McBride will either be a bust ass rotation guy or out of the league by the end of the first contract. Two other dudes I said this about on draft day: Joakim Noah and Frank Kaminsky. So is McBride closer to Noah (worked out with the right situation) or Kamisnky (exposed as not that good)? I'll say Noah because I'm trying to imagine the upside of all these guys), if so, the youth movement (Dort, Pokusevksy, Barnes, McBride) will get off to a nice start (and add in a few more picks next year).
17 Pelicans (through Grizzlies) -- Chris Duarte (Oregon St)
The Pelicans don't need stars, they need hustlers. Duarte is an older gentlemen but seems as day 1 ready as anyone in this draft. A defensive swing man that can contribute right away is perfect for Team Zion. (***)
18 Thunder -- Johnny Juzang (UCLA)
I loved Juzang in the tourney (and wasn't disappointed at all by his time at Kentucky). Juzang is either a star or a flame out, either way he's going big. The Thunder are eager to lose next year anyway, so #18 is about taking a swing. Juzang might have the widest variance between floor and ceiling, an intriguing option.
19 Knicks -- BJ Boston (Kentucky)
This will definitely strike most as a reach. But coming out of high school (12 long months ago), Boston was amongst Cunningham, Green and Mobley at the top of the recruits. A lackluster year at Kentucky (hey, man, Covid wrecked their whole process) looks like it might doom him to the 2nd round (****), but the Knicks are obsessed with UK guys and though they probably think they can get him with #32, I bet the Knicks go ahead and keep the Blue wave rolling.
20 Hawks -- Zhaire Williams (Stanford)
Williams is a polarizing prospect: looked like such money in high school but a terrible year at Stanford, so which is it? His size is intriguing and if his game comes together, he could be a for-real stud. If he drops to #20 I can see the Hawks taking a flyer on him because his upside seems pretty crazy. (I can also see them taking Jared Butler (Baylor), they could use some defensive toughness at 2nd string PG).
21 Knicks -- Isaiah Jackson (Kentucky)
Yup, another Wildcat reach at #21. The Knicks have clearly gone all in on Kentucky guys--and I think that's a smart move! You may think these Boston at #19 and Jackson at #21 are too desperate, but I think they're both good athletes, underrated players coming off a disappointing season, I think the Knicks would do well to grab these guys early. (Again, they may wait if they think they can get Jackson at #32)
22 Lakers -- Cameron Thomas (Louisiana St)
Supposedly a do it all PG, we'll see if that fits in LA. (You know the Lakers have actually drafted really well over the last 10 years or so (*****), I bet the draft magic fades now that Lebron is there; just a stray thought) I can also see them taking a flyer on Kai Jones (Texas), though, the Lakers didn't typically do 'flyers'.
23 & 24 Rockets -- Jared Butler (Baylor), Kai Jones (Texas)
May as well take two local college stars (er, sorta). Butler is a ball hawking, athletic PG, coming off a championship, always nice to have and Jones is a project but an intriguing one. But the Rockets already have Christian Wood and (presumably) Evan Mobley? No prob, Jones isn't gonna play at all til the second year anyway. Jones may turn out to be nothing but frustrating but this is a good position to take a swing on potential.
25 Clippers -- Tre Mann (Florida St)
26 Nuggets -- Nah'shan Hyland (Virginia Commonwealth)
27 Nets -- Jaden Springer (Tennessee)
28 76ers -- Ayo Dosunmo (Illinois)
29 Suns -- Trey Murphy (Virginia)
30 Jazz -- Joel Ayayi (Gonzaga)
Meh, in some years I spot a guy or two in the 2nd round that looks intriguing to me. But this year I'm just going to bat for the Kentucky guys (Boston, Jackson), they didn't have ideal seasons but they're still plenty talented and maybe there's something likable about the hunger they'll be bringing. More than that, though, I think the top 24 or so is actually pretty good. I think this looks to be a deep draft, a lot of good rotation guys in this draft and few potential superstars. But maybe thinner in the 2nd round than usual. I dunno, we'll see.
(*) Magic get Jalen Smith ($4.2m), Frank Kaminsky ($1.6.m expiring), Chris Paul ($41.3m) (with CP's proviso to negotiate a 3yr extension); Suns get #5 pick, Otto Porter ($28.4 expiring), Markelle Fultz ($12.3m), Wendell Carter ($5.4m). Yeah...this'll never happen for a million reasons, but I'd do it.
(**) If the right deal comes along, then sure the Warriors should trade #7 and/or Wiseman and/or #14 but only for the right star. I don't see that guy out there and I think Wiggins is underappreciated. I think the Warriors should look to build around Wiseman and #7 (and hopefully #14, too) going forward. I don't think adding random vets to Steph and co. is the way to maximize their longevity, I think steadily drafting young players around them could work better. I'd rather rely on Steph, Klay and Draymond to build an expectation of awesome-ness for the next generation rather than chase vets which just warps their roster and salary cap forever.
(***) Now that the Pelicans have freed up cap room, they should re-sign Lonzo Ball. But if that falls through (seems like Lonzo could be one of the prime plums this summer), I would suggest not spending the windfall or some star. Rather they should target lunch pail types that are gonna come in and give service to the star. Free agent targets (my suggestion): Cam Payne, Jeff Teague, Irsan Ilyasova, Taylor Horton-Tucker, Jarred Vanderbilt, Timothe Luwawu. Payne is actually gonna want big money, Pelicans should offer 3yr/$42m, it's a good deal to play with the next big star of the league. Teague and Ilyasova are worth 2nd string money, Vanderbilt and Luwawu are undervalued players just waiting to be had, Tucker brings the pedigree (re: working alongside Lebron). Zion doesn't need a splashy star, he needs hustlers and role players! Buying him the shiny toy is gonna be a waste of money, keep a steady diet of reliable toys around.
(****) I think the teams of the NBA would be making a serious mistake if they let the World Champion Bucks get Boston at #31.
(*****) Laker draft picks since 2014: Julius Randle, D'Angelo Russell, Larry Nance, Anthony Brown, Brandon Ingram, Ivaca Zubac, Lonzo Ball, Tony Bradley, Mo Wagner, Svi Mykhailiuk, De'Andre Hunter. Would you rather have a roster built around those guys or the Bucks's picks since 2014: Jabari Parker, Damien Inglis, Johnny O'Bryant, Lamar Patterson, Rashad Vaughn, Thon Maker, Malcolm Brogdon, DJ Wilson, Donte Di Vincenzo (oh, and traded Norman Powell, RJ Hampton, Kevin Porter and Sindarius Thornwell on draft day). Still think the World Champion Bucks were 'homegrown'?
